Draft:AI Era
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The AI era,[1][2][3] also known as the AI revolution,[4][5][6][7] is the anticipated period of global transition of the human economy and society towards a post "artificial general intelligence" world enabled by the integration of AI technology.[8][9] Many have suggested that this period started around the early 2020s,[10][11][12] with the release of generative AI models, including large language models such as ChatGPT.[13][14][15]
This enabled software programs that were capable of replacing or augmenting humans in various domains that traditionally required human reasoning and cognition, such as writing, translation, and computer programming.[16][17]
The AI era is expected to mark a major turning point in human history, comparable to the developments of the Industrial Revolution,[18][19][20][4] technologies which have impacted virtually every industry and facet of life.
Some anticipate a move towards post-scarcity economics and post-labor society enabled through automation of jobs and tasks,[1] while some others fear potential existential risks, dystopia, mass surveillance enabled by artificial intelligence.[21][22][23]
Prerequisites
[edit]The AI revolution is primarily driven by the convergence of technological advancements, the existence of large datasets, and the availability of advanced and affordable computing power. These factors play a critical role in enabling the development of large AI models, which have significantly advanced the field of artificial intelligence.[5][7]
Advances in algorithmic techniques
[edit]The AI era was catalyzed by key technological developments, including breakthroughs in machine learning algorithms, notably deep learning, which enable computers to analyze and learn from large datasets with unprecedented efficiency. Key advancements included:
- Transformer architecture: enabled the scalability of large-language models with unsupervised learning on large-scale datasets, largely sourced from the Internet, training language models on how to write congruent human-like text, and powering technologies such as ChatGPT.[24]
- Reinforcement learning from human feedback: enabled the alignment of AI models through human feedback, creating AI assistants capable of solving problems or completing tasks when prompted by humans.[25]
Large datasets
[edit]The availability of large datasets has been a crucial factor in the AI revolution. These datasets, often sourced from the Internet, provide the vast amount of information needed to train and refine AI models through unsupervised learning. The diversity and size of these datasets have enabled the development of more accurate and robust AI systems capable of handling complex tasks and making better predictions.[7]
The Internet was largely responsible for this exponential growth in data, creating a primary source of diverse and extensive data, including accessible public databases and user-generated content from social media, online forums, news, and other digital platforms such as Wikipedia.[6]
Advanced and affordable computing power
[edit]The growth of AI has been propelled by significant advancements in computing technology, particularly in the areas of GPUs (Graphics Processing Units) and TPUs (Tensor Processing Units). These specialized processors are capable of handling the complex calculations required for AI algorithms, especially in deep learning.[7]
Periods of AI era
[edit]In order to facilitate discussion and simplify analytical approaches, a nomenclature has been proposed for the division of the AI era into separate periods.[26]
Chronological sequence of the AI era
[edit]| Name of period[26] | Time span | Defining events[27] | Etymology of name |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prenoëtic | from the dawn of hominid intelligence to the time of the AI boom | Intelligence confined exclusively to biological species | Greek: προ (pró) = afore + νόησις (nóësis) = intellect |
| Protonoëtic | from ca. 2020 AD to AGI invention | Artificial narrow intelligence abundant and utilised in ever-increasing areas | Greek: πρῶτος (prótos) = first + νόησις (nóësis) = intellect |
| Mesonoëtic | from AGI creation to the evolution of superintelligence | Most human endeavour reliant on (or subsumed to) Artificial General Intelligence | Greek: μέσος (mésos) = middle + νόησις (nóësis) = intellect |
| Kainonoëtic | from the emergence of superintelligence to the far future | Humans no longer the dominant species. Possible singularity or existential risk | Greek: καινός (kainós) = new + νόησις (nóësis) = intellect |
Societal effects
[edit]Artificial intelligence has had a significant impact on humanity,[17][28] including discussions on redefining what it means to be a human during an era in which artificial intelligence surpasses expert-human level abilities in a wide and general variety of skills, potentially leading to a future where humans may no longer need or be able to work.[29]
In a 2023 report from ResumeBuilder, more than one-third (37%) of business leaders claimed AI replaced workers in 2023.[30] In 2023, Asana, a project management and collaboration software company, found in a survey that 29% of employees say their work tasks are replaceable with AI.[30] AI systems have already started to replace entire job categories where AIs exhibit super-human abilities such as translation and writing.
According to a study by OpenAI, a leading company in the development of artificial general intelligence and the developer of ChatGPT, 15 occupations (such as mathematicians, tax preparers, writers & authors, Web and digital interface designers) are fully exposed due to developments in GPT-powered software, whereas the GPT-4 model itself labeled 86 occupations as fully exposed.[17]
There have been significant numbers of proponents of a move towards a universal basic income in order to cope with a potential wide-scale loss of jobs as AI becomes more advanced and capable.[31][32][33] With the release of applications like Devin AI, there have been growing concerns within the tech industry about job loss. Kyle Shevlin, founder and software engineer at software development agency Athagist, expressed frustration on X about the industry "trying to aggressively replace one of the few remaining jobs that provides a legit middle-class income."[34]
A report by consulting firm McKinsey & Company warned that 1.3 million Australian workers might need to transition out of their current jobs into new professions by 2030, equating to about 9% of the nation's total workforce.[35]
Potential existential risk
[edit]There has been concern about the potential extinction of humans due to unaligned AI models.[21][22][23] Some examples of concerns include the potential abilities of AI models to create novel pathogens with high infectiousness and mortality that could lead to the collapse of human society.[36]
Physicist Stephen Hawking, Microsoft founder Bill Gates, and SpaceX founder Elon Musk have expressed concerns about the possibility that AI could develop to the point that humans could not control it and that this could spell the end of the human race.[37][38] Elon Musk, founder of XAI, has asserted that AI surpassing human intelligence could materialize as soon as 2025.
However, some experts, such as Yann LeCun (head of Meta AI), have criticized this idea and are skeptical of the idea that AI superintelligence is coming anytime soon.[39]
Future developments
[edit]A number of frontier AI companies, including OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta AI and Google DeepMind, have stated their primary missions are to develop artificial general intelligence, which is either a type of artificial intelligence that can out-compete humans at most economically valuable tasks or a type capable of recursive self-improvement, enabling it to learn or program new capabilities that it did not originally have.[40]
OpenAI is working on learning how to develop a superintelligence smarter than the humans creating it, a concept referred to as superalignment.[41]
See also
[edit]
- AI aftermath scenarios
- AI effect
- AI winter, a period of reduced funding and interest in artificial intelligence research
- Artificial consciousness
- History of artificial intelligence
- Recursive self-improvement
- Technological singularity
- Technological unemployment
- Technological utopianism
References
[edit]- ^ a b "How the era of artificial intelligence will transform society?". PocketConfidant AI. June 15, 2018. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ Rosenbush, Robert McMillan, Bob Henderson and Steven. "The New Jobs for Humans in the AI Era". WSJ. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ "The Era of AI: 2023's Landmark Year". CMSWire.com. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ a b "How the AI Revolution Will Reshape the World". TIME. September 1, 2023. Retrieved February 21, 2024.
- ^ a b Urban, Tim (January 22, 2015). "The Artificial Intelligence Revolution: Part 1". Wait But Why. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ a b Oxenwaldt, Magnus. "Status of the AI Revolution". www.columbusglobal.com. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ a b c d Marr, Bernard (July 2, 2021). "What Is The Artificial Intelligence Revolution And Why Does It Matter To Your Business?". Bernard Marr. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ "Planning for AGI and beyond". openai.com. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
- ^ "Goldman Sachs | Investment Banking". Goldman Sachs. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
- ^ Lee, Adrienne (January 23, 2024). "UT Designates 2024 'The Year of AI'". UT News. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ Angus, Daniel; Thomson, T. J. (December 19, 2023). "2023 was the year of generative AI. What can we expect in 2024?". The Conversation. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ Gent, Edd (December 30, 2022). "2022 Was the Year AI Finally Started Living Up to Its Hype". Singularity Hub. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ Walsh, Toby (November 29, 2023). "A year of ChatGPT: 5 ways the AI marvel has changed the world". The Conversation. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ "How ChatGPT is Changing Our World | Tripwire". www.tripwire.com. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ "How OpenAI's ChatGPT has changed the world in just a year". Engadget. November 30, 2023. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ "What Jobs Will AI Replace & Which are Safe in 2023". blog.hubspot.com. August 21, 2023. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ a b c "GPTs are GPTs: An early look at the labor market impact potential of large language models". openai.com. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ Browne, Ryan (January 17, 2024). "AI era is a 'seismic moment' in tech we've not seen in a decade, top Meta exec says". CNBC. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
- ^ Pringle, Kenneth G. (November 26, 2023). "AI Will Create—and Destroy—Jobs. History Offers a Lesson".
- ^ Devlin, Hannah; correspondent, Hannah Devlin Science (May 3, 2023). "AI 'could be as transformative as Industrial Revolution'". The Guardian. London, England. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
{{cite news}}:|last2=has generic name (help) - ^ a b Sharwood, Simon. "Doom developer John Carmack thinks AGI could debut in 2030". www.theregister.com. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ a b Roose, Kevin (December 6, 2023). "Silicon Valley Confronts a Grim New A.I. Metric". The New York Times. New York, New York. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ a b Notopoulos, Katie. "What's your (p)doom? The morbid question making rounds in tech". Business Insider. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ "ChatGPT | What technologies are behind the AI star?". www.aivancity.ai. March 27, 2023. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ "Illustrating Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF)". huggingface.co. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ a b Floudas, Demetrius (June 2024). "Advanced AI should be treated similar to Weapons of Mass Destruction". DaniWeb. Retrieved June 1, 2024.
First, let us introduce some definitions for AI evolution time-periods, as it will become increasingly necessary to use a short form in order to illustrate this notion.
- ^ Kaplan, Andreas; Haenlein, Michael (January 1, 2019). "Siri, Siri, in my hand: Who's the fairest in the land? On the interpretations, illustrations, and implications of artificial intelligence". Business Horizons. 62 (1): 15–25. doi:10.1016/j.bushor.2018.08.004. ISSN 0007-6813.
- ^ Chi, Tzu (August 14, 2020). "The impact of artificial intelligence on human society and bioethics". Tzu Chi Medical Journal. 32 (4): 339–343. doi:10.4103/tcmj.tcmj_71_20. PMC 7605294. PMID 33163378.
- ^ "Living in a brave new AI era". Nature Human Behaviour. 7 (11): 1799. November 2023. doi:10.1038/s41562-023-01775-7. ISSN 2397-3374. PMID 37985917.
- ^ a b Curry, Rachel (December 16, 2023). "Recent data shows AI job losses are rising, but the numbers don't tell the full story". CNBC. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ Kelly, Philippa (November 16, 2023). "AI is coming for our jobs! Could universal basic income be the solution?". The Guardian. London, England. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ "Is the rise of AI the best argument for universal basic income?". www.wbur.org. September 12, 2023. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ Lowrey, Annie (May 17, 2023). "Before AI Takes Over, Make Plans to Give Everyone Money". The Atlantic. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ Chowdhury, Hasan. "Software engineers are getting closer to finding out if AI really can make them jobless". Business Insider. Retrieved April 7, 2024.
- ^ Shannon, Molloy (April 29, 2024). "The jobs mostly likely to be replaced by artificial intelligence technology in Australia".
- ^ "Scientists grapple with risk of artificial intelligence-created pandemics". Science|Business. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ Metz, Cade; Schmidt, Gregory (March 29, 2023). "Elon Musk and Others Call for Pause on A.I., Citing 'Profound Risks to Society'". The New York Times. New York, New York. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ Kharpal, Arjun (November 6, 2017). "Stephen Hawking says A.I. could be 'worst event in the history of our civilization'". CNBC. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ Vanian, Jonathan (December 3, 2023). "Meta's AI chief doesn't think AI super intelligence is coming anytime soon, and is skeptical on quantum computing". CNBC. Retrieved May 26, 2024.
- ^ "About". openai.com. Retrieved January 28, 2024.
- ^ "Introducing Superalignment". openai.com. Retrieved January 28, 2024.