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2011 Irish general election

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Irish general election, 2011
← 2007 Early 2011
165 of 166 seats in Dáil Éireann
  File:Brian Cowen by maxime.bernier.jpg
Leader Brian Cowen Enda Kenny Eamon Gilmore
Party Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour
Leader since 7 May 2008 2 June 2002 6 September 2007
Leader's seat Laois–Offaly Mayo Dún Laoghaire
Last election 77 seats, 41.6% 51 seats, 27.3% 20 seats, 10.1%
 
Leader John Gormley Gerry Adams Joe Higgins
Party Green Sinn Féin Socialist Party
Leader since 17 July 2007 13 November 1983 1996
Leader's seat Dublin South East Dublin West
Last election 6 seats, 4.7% 4 seats, 6.9% 0 seats, 0.6%
Incumbent Taoiseach

Brian Cowen
Fianna Fáil



The next Irish general election will take place in early 2011.[1][2] The election will be called following the dissolution of the 30th Dáil by the President, at the request of the Taoiseach. The electorate will elect the members of the 31st Dáil who will assemble shortly afterwards to elect a Taoiseach following agreement on the Government of the 31st Dáil.

Background

Following the bailout of Irish banks and the deteriorating state of Irish debt that led to the Irish financial crisis, Ireland was in effect forced to take a bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund amid fears of a wider European sovereign debt crisis contagion. The European Financial Stability Facility then offered Ireland a multi-billion euro offer to help alleviate its debt burden.

Such a move was widely condemned in Ireland, with The Irish Times lambasting Fianna Fáil because despite its "primary aims [to] the commitment 'to maintain the status of Ireland as a sovereign State'...The Republican Party’s ideals are in tatters now."[3]

Following the acceptance of the deal on 21 November 2010, the Green Party leader, John Gormley called for a general election to be held in the second half of January 2011, however, he added that the party would support the coalition for the "coming weeks and months."[4] The Labour Party and Fine Gael called for an immediate election[5] in order to seek "political certainty."[6] On 22 November 2010, Taoiseach Brian Cowen indicated that the election would take place in early 2011 after the 2011 budgetary process has been completed.[2][6] There were fears that the election call could trigger another credit downgrade for Ireland.[7]

Date

Section 7 of the Electoral (Amendment) Act, 1927 requires that the Dáil be dissolved within five years after its first meeting following the previous election (14 June 2007).[8] Article 16.3.2 of the Constitution of Ireland requires that a general election for members of Dáil Éireann must must take place not later than thirty days after the dissolution. The next general election must, therefore, take place no later than 14 July 2012.[9]

Electoral system

The system of voting will be proportional representation with a single transferable vote, also known as PR–STV.[10] The general election will take place in 43 parliamentary constituencies throughout Ireland for 165 of the 166 Dáil Éireann seats (The Ceann Comhairle is automatically re-elected).[11]

Incumbents retiring

The following TDs have announced that they will not contest the next general election:

Constituency Departing TD Party
Cork South West Jim O'Keeffe[12] style="background-color: Template:Fine Gael/meta/color" | Fine Gael
Dublin South Tom Kitt[13] style="background-color: Template:Fianna Fáil/meta/color" | Fianna Fáil
Dublin South Central Mary Upton[14] style="background-color: Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color" | Labour Party
Galway East Paul Connaughton[15] style="background-color: Template:Fine Gael/meta/color" | Fine Gael
Kerry South Jackie Healy-Rae[16] style="background-color: Template:Independent (politician)/meta/color" | Independent
Laois–Offaly Olwyn Enright[17] style="background-color: Template:Fine Gael/meta/color" | Fine Gael
Louth Arthur Morgan[18] style="background-color: Template:Sinn Fein/meta/color" | Sinn Fein
Wicklow Liz McManus[19] style="background-color: Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color" | Labour Party

Additionally, there are three vacant seats: one each in Waterford, Dublin South, and Donegal North East.

Campaign

Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams (currently MP in the United Kingdom and MLA in Northern Ireland) announced he would resign both of these posts and contest the next Irish general election in Louth.[20]

Opinion polls

The current government consists of Fianna Fáil and the Green Party, supported by several independents. Fine Gael, the Labour Party, Sinn Féin and other independents provide the opposition.

Date Source Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Party Green Party Sinn Féin Independents/Others
21 November 2010 The Sunday Business Post[21] 17% 33% 27% 3% 11% 8%
24 October 2010 The Sunday Business Post[22] 18% 32% 27% 4% 9% 10%
30 September 2010 The Irish Times[23] 24% 24% 33% 2% 8% 9%
26 September 2010 The Sunday Business Post[24] 24% 31% 23% 3% 10% 9%
23 September 2010 TV3 News[25] 22% 30% 35% 2% 4% 8%
27 June 2010 The Sunday Business Post[26] 24% 33% 27% 2% 8% 6%
11 June 2010 The Irish Times[27] 17% 28% 32% 3% 9% 11%
30 May 2010 The Sunday Business Post[28] 24% 30% 22% 5% 10% 9%
2 May 2010 The Sunday Business Post[29] 23% 33% 24% 6% 6% 8%
28 March 2010 The Sunday Business Post[30] 24% 35% 17% 5% 10% 9%
28 February 2010 The Sunday Business Post[31] 27% 34% 17% 5% 9% 8%
13 February 2010 Irish Independent[32] 27% 34% 19% 2% 8% 10%
31 January 2010 The Sunday Business Post[33] 27% 34% 17% 5% 8% 9%
22 January 2010 The Irish Times[34] 22% 32% 24% 3% 8% 11%
22 November 2009 The Sunday Business Post[35] 23% 36% 17% 5% 10% 9%
25 October 2009 The Sunday Business Post[36] 25% 35% 19% 3% 9% 9%
26 September 2009 The Irish Times[37] 20% 31% 25% 4% 9% 11%
3 September 2009 The Irish Times[38] 17% 34% 24% 3% 10% 12%
5 June 2009 European election 24.1% 29.1% 13.9% 1.9% 11.2% 19.7%
5 June 2009 Local elections 25.4% 32.2% 14.7% 2.3% 7.4% 18.0%
31 May 2009 The Sunday Business Post[39] 21% 34% 18% 4% 10% 13%
29 May 2009 The Irish Times[40] 20% 36% 23% 3% 8% 10%
17 May 2009 The Sunday Business Post[41] 24% 34% 18% 5% 7% 12%
15 May 2009 The Irish Times[42] 21% 38% 20% 3% 9% 10%
26 April 2009 The Sunday Business Post[43] 23% 33% 19% 7% 8% 10%
29 March 2009 The Sunday Business Post[44] 28% 31% 17% 7% 7% 10%
1 March 2009 The Sunday Business Post[45] 23% 30% 22% 6% 11% 8%
27 February 2009 Irish Independent[46] 25% 30% 22% 5% 7% 10%
13 February 2009 The Irish Times[47] 22% 32% 24% 4% 9% 9%
1 February 2009 The Sunday Business Post[48] 28% 33% 14% 8% 9% 8%
23 November 2008 The Sunday Business Post[49] 30% 35% 14% 5% 8% 8%
14 November 2008 The Irish Times[50] 27% 34% 14% 4% 8% 13%
26 October 2008 The Sunday Business Post[51] 26% 33% 15% 6% 10% 10% (PDs 2%)
21 September 2008 The Sunday Business Post[52] 36% 28% 9% 7% 9% 11% (PDs 3%)
30 March 2008 The Sunday Business Post[53] 35% 30% 10% 8% 9% 8% (PDs 1%)
24 May 2007 General election 41.5% 27.3% 10.1% 4.7% 6.9% 9.4% (PDs 2.7%)

References

  1. ^ "Taoiseach to dissolve Dáil after 'vital' budget passed". The Irish Times. 22 November 2010.
  2. ^ a b "Election to take place after the Budget". RTÉ News. 22 November 2010.
  3. ^ "Was it for this?". The Irish Times. 18 November 2010.
  4. ^ "Green Party calls for election date to be set". RTÉ News. 22 November 2010.
  5. ^ "Ireland bail-out: Calls for election intensify". BBC News. 22 November 2010.
  6. ^ a b "Irish election set for early 2011". Aljazeera. 22 November 2010.
  7. ^ "Irish Aid Bid Forces Cowen to Call Election, May Prompt Moody's Downgrade". Bloomberg L.P. 22 November 2010.
  8. ^ "Electoral (Amendment) Act, 1927". Irish Statute Book database. Retrieved 3 September 2010.
  9. ^ Article 16.5 of the constitution states that the Dáil may sit for a period of up to seven years from its first meeting. It also allows a shorter period to be fixed by law, this is currently five years.
  10. ^ "Proportional Representation – Information". Irish Citizens Information Board. Retrieved 26 October 2008.
  11. ^ Article 16.6 of the constitution requires that "provision shall be made by law" such that the Ceann Comhairle "be deemed without any actual election to be elected a member of Dáil Éireann". The current law making such provision is the Electoral Act, 1992.
  12. ^ "Political change for West Cork". Southern Star. 20 November 2010. Retrieved 18 November 2010.
  13. ^ "FF's Kitt to step down at next election". RTÉ News. 8 May 2008. Retrieved 7 April 2009.
  14. ^ "Labour's Upton will not contest next election". RTÉ News. 21 September 2010. Retrieved 21 September 2010.
  15. ^ "FG's Paul Connaughton to retire". Irish Times. 23 November 2010. Retrieved 23 November 2010.
  16. ^ "Healy-Rae to retire at next general election". Irish Independent. 26 June 2008. Retrieved 29 June 2008.
  17. ^ "Olwyn Enright will not contest next election". RTÉ News. 30 August 2010. Retrieved 30 August 2010.
  18. ^ "SF TD not to contest next election". The Irish Times. 9 November 2010. Retrieved 9 November 2010.
  19. ^ "Labour's McManus will not seek re-election". RTÉ News. 3 September 2010. Retrieved 3 September 2010.
  20. ^ "Adams to run for election in Louth". RTÉ News. 15 November 2010.
  21. ^ "Record low for Fianna Fáil in Red C poll". RTÉ News. 20 November 2010.
  22. ^ "Support for Fianna Fáil hits new low - poll". RTÉ News. 23 October 2010.
  23. ^ "FG drops further behind Labour - poll". RTÉ News. 29 September 2010.
  24. ^ "Support for FF remains steady - poll". RTÉ News. 25 September 2010.
  25. ^ "Poll - Interview damaged Cowen's credibility". RTÉ News. 23 September 2010.
  26. ^ "Poll shows FG recovery after Kenny challenge". RTÉ News. 26 June 2010.
  27. ^ "Labour most popular party - poll". RTÉ News. 10 June 2010.
  28. ^ "Fianna Fáil regains second place in poll". RTÉ News. 29 May 2010.
  29. ^ "Dramatic surge in support for Labour - poll". RTÉ News. 1 May 2010.
  30. ^ "Support for Fianna Fáil drops - poll". RTÉ News. 27 March 2010.
  31. ^ "Support for main parties unchanged - poll". RTÉ News. 27 February 2010.
  32. ^ "Increase in support for FG - poll". RTÉ News. 12 February 2010.
  33. ^ "Poll shows jump in support for Fianna Fáil". RTÉ News. 30 January 2010.
  34. ^ "Poll shows moderate rise in support for FF". RTÉ News. 21 January 2010.
  35. ^ "Support for Fine Gael at highest level - poll". RTÉ News. 21 November 2009.
  36. ^ "FG retains lead in polls". RTÉ News. 24 October 2009.
  37. ^ "Support for Govt, Cowen & FF rise - poll". RTÉ News. 25 September 2009.
  38. ^ "Satisfaction with Taoiseach falls to 15%". RTÉ News. 2 September 2009.
  39. ^ "Further drop in support for FF". RTÉ News. 30 May 2009.
  40. ^ "Poll shows rise in support for Labour". RTÉ News. 28 May 2009.
  41. ^ "Poll shows drop in support for Green Party". RTÉ News. 16 May 2009.
  42. ^ "Polls shows Fine Gael popularity surge". RTÉ News. 14 May 2009.
  43. ^ "Poll shows drop in support for FF". RTÉ News. 25 April 2009.
  44. ^ "Poll shows increase for Fianna Fáil". RTÉ News. 28 March 2009.
  45. ^ "FF falls to lowest ever rating - poll". RTÉ News. 28 February 2009.
  46. ^ "10% satisfied with Govt performance". RTÉ News. 26 February 2009.
  47. ^ "Labour surge past FF in latest poll". RTÉ News. 12 February 2009.
  48. ^ "Fall in support for two main parties". RTÉ News. 31 January 2009.
  49. ^ "Poll shows recovery for Fianna Fáil". RTÉ News. 22 November 2008.
  50. ^ "Massive drop in support for Fianna Fáil". RTÉ News. 13 November 2008.
  51. ^ "Fianna Fáil down 10% in poll". RTÉ News. 26 October 2008.
  52. ^ "Poll shows fall in support for Fianna Fáil". RTÉ News. 20 September 2008.
  53. ^ "New poll shows drop in support for FF". RTÉ News. 29 March 2008.
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