Paul the Octopus

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Paul the Octopus
Paul in his tank, next to a football boot with the German flag colours
Other name(s)Paul Oktopus, Paul der Krake
SpeciesOctopus vulgaris
SexMale
OccupationExhibit, Psychic Football Pundit
Known forPredicting results of Germany's football matches
OwnerSea Life Centres (aquarium keeper: Oliver Walenciak)
Named afterA poem by Boy Lornsen, Der Tintenfisch Paul Oktopus

Paul (hatched January 2008) is a common octopus living in a tank at a Sea Life Centre in Oberhausen, Germany, who is used as an animal oracle to predict the results of football matches, usually international matches in which Germany is playing. He came to worldwide attention with his accurate predictions in the 2010 World Cup.

During a divination, Paul is presented with two boxes containing food in the form of a mussel, each marked with the flag of a national football team in an upcoming match. He chose the box with the flag of the winning team in four of Germany's six Euro 2008 matches, and in all seven of their matches in the 2010 World Cup. He correctly predicted a win for Spain against the Netherlands in the World Cup final on 11 July by eating the mussel in the box with the Spanish flag on it.[1] His predictions have thus been 100% (8/8) correct for the 2010 World Cup and 86% (12/14) correct overall.

Life

Paul was hatched from an egg at the Sea Life Centre in Weymouth, England, then moved to a tank at one of the chain's centres in Oberhausen, Germany.[2] His name derives from the title of a poem by the German children's writer Boy Lornsen: Der Tintenfisch Paul Oktopus.[3][4]

The animal rights organization PETA have argued that it would be cruel to keep Paul in permanent confinement. Sea Life Centres have responded that it would be dangerous to release him, because he was born in captivity, and is not accustomed to finding food for himself.[5]

According to DPA, local businessmen in Carballiño, a community in Galicia (Spain) collected about 30,000 Euro "Transfer fee" to get Paul as main attraction of the local Fiesta del Pulpo festival.[6] Manuel Pazo, a fisherman and head of the local business club made assurances that Paul would be presented alive in a tank and not on the menu. Sea Life Centres rejected the offer nevertheless.[7]

Divination

The two plastic boxes which are presented to Paul. The food items are visible in the left-hand corners.

Paul's career as an oracle began during the UEFA Euro 2008 tournament.[2][4][8] In the lead-up to Germany's international football matches, Paul is presented with two clear plastic boxes, each containing food: a mussel or an oyster. Each container is marked with the flag of a team, one the flag of Germany, and the other the flag of Germany's opponent. The box which Paul opens first (and eats the contents of) is judged to be the predicted winner of the game.[9]

Paul's apparent success is comparable to a run of luck when tossing a coin. This connection has been made by Professor Chris Budd of the University of Bath, Professor David Spiegelharter of Cambridge University, and Etienne Roquain of Pierre and Marie Curie University.[10][11]

Under the hypothesis that Paul is equally likely to choose the winner or the loser of a match, and neglecting the possibility of a draw, he has a 1/2 chance of predicting a single result and a 1/64 chance of predicting six in a row. This feat would be unlikely, but not nearly as unlikely as winning the UK lottery, a chance of 1/14 million. Spiegelharter and Roquain point out that there are "other animals that have attempted but failed to predict the outcome of football matches"; it is not remarkable that one animal is more successful than the others, and only the successful animals will gain public attention after the fact.[10][11] However, if Paul or other octopuses[12] felt attracted for whatever reasons to the flagged boxes of Germany or Spain, their predections would be much more exact than tossing a coin. This applies only for ongoing international football tournaments but would fail for any other question.

Potential biases

Flag of Germany: A horizontal tricolor of black, red and gold
Germany (11)
Flag of Spain: A horizontal tricolor of red, yellow and red, the yellow stripe being twice the size of each red stripe and containing the coat of arms
Spain (2)
Flag of Serbia: A horizontal tricolor of red, blue. and white, with the lesser coat of arms
Serbia (1)
Flags picked by Paul

Roquain goes on to admit that chance is not necessarily the only explanation for Paul's choices. He could be choosing boxes systematically—if not on the basis of football expertise, then perhaps on his evaluation of the countries' flags or the food offered.[11]

The species Octopus vulgaris is almost certainly color blind; neither behavioral studies nor electroretinogram experiments show any discrimination of a color's hue.[13][14] Nonetheless, individuals can distinguish brightness as well as an object's size, shape, and orientation. Shelagh Malham of Bangor University states that they are drawn to horizontal shapes, and indeed, there are horizontal stripes on the flags he has chosen. The flag of Germany, a bold tricolor consisting of three equal horizontal bands of black, red and gold, is Paul's usual favorite. But the flag of Spain, with its broad yellow stripe, and the flag of Serbia, with its contrast of blue and white, are more vivid still, possibly explaining why Paul picked those countries over Germany.[13] Fey suggested that Paul was confused by the similarities between the German and Spanish flags; this was on July 6, when Fey expressed hope that Paul's latest pick would be wrong.[15]

Matthew Fuller, the senior aquarist at the Weymouth park, judged the flag-shape theory to be plausible: "[Octopuses] are the most intelligent of all the invertebrates and studies have shown they are able to distinguish shapes and patterns so maybe he’s able to recognise flags."[16] Vyacheslav Bisikov, a Russian biologist, agrees that it is possible for an octopus to become attracted to a striped flag.[17] However, Pascal Coutant, director of the La Rochelle Aquarium states: "It's complete chance that guides his choices."[18]

Octopus vulgaris is also equipped with sensitive chemoreceptors on its tentacles, which are used to taste food and "smell" the water. Biologist Volker Miske, of the University of Greifswald, suggests that minor chemical differences on the surface of each box might account for Paul's decisions.[19] Bisikov states that Paul could be "easily trained" to choose the right box by smell.[17] According to Paul's keepers, there are holes in the jars to help him choose.[20]

Theories of his behavior could be systematically tested if Paul were to repeat his selection many times, but he only selects one box per game.[19] A scientific experiment would be more vigilant towards sources of bias, including the flag visuals and potential differences in the preparation of the food.[11]

Results

Paul holds a press conference, 6 July 2010.

In UEFA Euro 2008, Paul correctly predicted the outcome of 4 out of 6 of Germany's matches. He failed to predict their defeats by Croatia in the group stage,[21] and by Spain in the championship's final.[2][nb 1]

2010 FIFA World Cup

Paul's accurate choices for the 2010 World Cup, broadcast live by German news channel NTV, have endowed him with celebrity status.[2] Paul predicted the winners of each of the seven 2010 FIFA World Cup matches that the German team played, against Australia, Serbia, Ghana, England, Argentina, Spain,[23] and Uruguay. His prediction that Argentina would lose prompted Argentine chef Nicolas Bedorrou to post an octopus recipe on Facebook.[2]

There are always people who want to eat our octopus but he is not shy and we are here to protect him as well. He will survive.

— Oliver Walenciak (Paul's keeper)[24]

Paul correctly predicted the outcome of the semi-final, by choosing the food in the box marked with the Spanish flag. German supporters drew hope from his incorrect choice for the Germany versus Spain match in the UEFA Euro 2008 but were disappointed.[25] The prediction led to death threats as German fans called for Paul to be cooked and eaten.[26][27] In response, Spanish prime minister Jose Zapatero jokingly offered to send Paul official state protection, and the Industry Minister Miguel Sebastian called for Paul to be given safe haven in Spain.[28][29] Paul maintained a 100% accurate record during the tournament by correctly predicting Spain's victory over the Netherlands in the final.

Results involving Germany

Euro 2008
Opponent Stage Date Prediction Result Outcome
 Poland group stage 8 June  Germany 2–0 Correct
 Croatia group stage 12 June  Germany[2][21] 1–2 Incorrect
 Austria group stage 16 June  Germany 1–0 Correct
 Portugal quarter-finals 19 June  Germany 3–2 Correct
 Turkey semi-finals 25 June  Germany 3–2 Correct
 Spain final 29 June  Germany[2] 0–1 Incorrect
Paul picks Germany over Uruguay on July 9, 2010.
World Cup 2010
Opponent Stage Date Prediction Result Outcome
 Australia group stage 13 June  Germany[30] 4–0 Correct
 Serbia group stage 18 June  Serbia[30] 0–1 Correct
 Ghana group stage 23 June  Germany[30] 1–0 Correct
 England round of 16 27 June  Germany[31] 4–1 Correct
 Argentina quarter-finals 3 July  Germany[24] 4–0 Correct
 Spain semi-finals 7 July  Spain[32] 0–1 Correct
 Uruguay 3rd place play-off 10 July  Germany[33] 3–2 Correct

Results not involving Germany

Wikinews has related news:
Paul picks Spain over the Netherlands on July 9, 2010.
Teams Tournament Stage Date Prediction Result Outcome
 Netherlands vs. Spain  World Cup 2010 final 11 July  Spain[34] 0–1 Correct

Statistics

Assuming Paul's predictions were no better than fair independent coin flips, the probability of 12 successful predictions in 14 attempts is 91/1684 ≈ 0.56%, as given by the binomial distribution[35], and the probability of 8 successful predictions out of 8 attempts is 1/256 ≈ 0.39%.[36]. Of course there were many public predictions about World Cup results using quirky methods that were wrong and hence did not get international attention. It is an example of the Prosecutor's fallacy to use the same data that brought Paul to fame to suggest that he has precognition. Paul started to receive international recognition after he correctly predicted Germany's win over England, and after that he only made four more predictions. The chance of all of those being correct was 6.25%.

Similar oracles

Some other oracles did not fare so well in the World Cup. The animals at the Chemnitz Zoo in Germany were wrong on all of Germany's group-stage games, with Leon the porcupine picking Australia, Petty the pygmy hippopotamus spurning Serbia's apple-topped pile of hay, and Anton the tamarin eating a raisin representing Ghana. Mani the Parakeet of Singapore picked the Netherlands to win the final.[37][38][39]

See also

References

Footnotes
  1. ^ Some later sources reported his success rate at 80%.[22]
Notes
  1. ^ Christenson, Marcus. "Psychic octopus Paul predicts Spain to beat Holland in World Cup final", The Guardian, 9 July 2010.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g "World Cup 2010: 10 things you didn't know about Paul the psychic octopus", The Telegraph, 7 July 2010, retrieved 7 July 2010
  3. ^ Published in Das alte Schwein lebt immer noch: Boy Lornsens Tierleben, Schneekluth (1985), ISBN 978-3795109417. Re-published in and eponymous of the anthology Der Tintenfisch Paul Oktopus. Gedichte für neugierige Kinder, 2009, Manfred Boje Verlag ISBN 9783414821485
  4. ^ a b Silver, Dan (8 July 2010), Top 10 things you need to know about World Cup star Paul the Psychic Octopus, mirrorfootball.co.uk, retrieved 9 July 2010 {{citation}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= and |date= (help)
  5. ^ Ruf, Cory (8 July 2010), PETA demands Paul, the World Cup-predicting octopus, be set free, news.nationalpost.com, retrieved 9 July 2010 {{citation}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= and |date= (help)
  6. ^ bieten 30.000 Euro Ablösesumme für "Pulpo Paul" FTD 10.07.2010
  7. ^ Kraken-Orakel vs. Propheten-Papagei FR online nach einer DPA Meldung, 8.7.2010
  8. ^ "Paul the octopus chooses Spain over Germany". IOL. 6 July 2010. Retrieved 8 July 2010.
  9. ^ Erskine, Carole (25 June 2010), "Psychic Octopus to Predict England Result", Sky News, retrieved 9 July 2010 {{citation}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= and |date= (help)
  10. ^ a b Shenker, Sarah (9 July 2010), What are the chances Paul the octopus is right?, BBC News, retrieved 9 July 2010 {{citation}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= and |date= (help)
  11. ^ a b c d Fréour, Pauline (9 July 2010), "La martingale de Paul le Poulpe passée au crible", Le Figaro (in French), retrieved 10 July 2010
  12. ^ http://www.malagahoy.es/article/opinion/744575/pulpo/pepe/tambien/elige/espana.html
  13. ^ a b Connolly, Paul (9 July 2010), "Paul picks Spain! The 'oracle octopus' makes his prediction for the World Cup final... will he be right for the eighth time?", Daily Mail, UK, retrieved 9 July 2010 {{citation}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= and |date= (help)
  14. ^ Lydia M. Mäthger, Alexandra Barbosa, Simon Miner, Roger T. Hanlon (2006), "Color blindness and contrast perception in cuttlefish (Sepia officinalis) determined by a visual sensorimotor assay", Vision Research, 46: 1746–1753, doi:10.1016/j.visres.2005.09.035{{citation}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  15. ^ Grieshaber, Kirsten (6 July 2010), "Tentacle trauma: Paul the octopus says Spain will sink Germany at World Cup", Associated Press Newswires, Factiva APRS000020100706e676001l9
  16. ^ "Weymouth's psychic octopus Paul is no sucker", Dorset Echo, 9 July 2010, Factiva NQTCE00020100709e6790002t, retrieved 10 July 2010
  17. ^ a b "German octopus predicts Spanish victory in World Cup", RIA Novosti, 9 July 2010, Factiva RVESEN0020100709e679001e2, retrieved 10 July 2010
  18. ^ "C'est le hasard complet qui guide ses choix." See Fréour, La martingale de Paul
  19. ^ a b "Darum hat sich Krake Paul für Spanien entschieden", Die Welt (in German), 8 July 2010, retrieved 9 July 2010 {{citation}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= and |date= (help)
  20. ^ "ABs win? Paul may not have a leg to stand on", Bay of Plenty Times, 10 July 2010, Factiva APNBPT0020100710e67a0000j, Octopuses test things for taste with the suckers on their tentacles. Paul's aquarium minders have confided that his choice of mussels from jars decorated with national flags was helped by holes in the jars.
  21. ^ a b "Wie endet die Partie Deutschland - Kroatien?: Tier-Orakel sind sich uneins", Der Westen, 11 June 2008, retrieved 9 July 2010
  22. ^ Armstrong, Paul (9 July 2010), Would you trust World Cup's octopus oracle?, CNN, retrieved 9 July 2010 {{citation}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= and |date= (help)
  23. ^ Shenker, Sarah (9 July 2010), What are the chances Paul the octopus is right?, news.bbc.co.uk, retrieved 9 July 2010 {{citation}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= and |date= (help)
  24. ^ a b Hyde, Thomas (7 July 2010), "Germany v Spain: Psychic octopus Paul unfazed by death threats, says keeper", The Daily Telegraph, UK, retrieved 9 July 2010 {{citation}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= and |date= (help)
  25. ^ Octopus Paul predicts Spain over Germany in WCup, 6 Jul. 2010 03:50 {{citation}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  26. ^ Breitenbach, Dagmar (8 July 2010), "Fry Paul the oracle octopus, German fans say", Deutsche Welle, retrieved 9 July 2010
  27. ^ AbramsDavid (8 July 2010), Germans Eat Paul The Octopus, allvoices.com {{citation}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  28. ^ Spanish PM Jose Zapatero offers Paul the psychic octopus state protection, Herald Sun, 8 July 2010, retrieved 9 July 2010 {{citation}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= and |date= (help)
  29. ^ Paul the psychic octopus predicts Spain will beat Holland - The Daily Telegraph, 9 July 2010
  30. ^ a b c World Cup Octopus: Paul's Predictions Stun Germany, Huffington Post, 24 Jun. 2010 03:50 {{citation}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  31. ^ 'Psychic' octopus predicts Germany victory over England, BBC News, 25 June 2010 {{citation}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  32. ^ Paul The Octopus Predicts Spain Will Beat Germany, The Globe and Mail, 7 July 2010 {{citation}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  33. ^ "Octopus predicts Germany third place in World Cup". BBC News. 9 July 2010. Retrieved 11 July 2010.
  34. ^ "Psychic octopus Paul predicts Spain to beat Holland in World Cup final", The Guardian, London, 9 July 2010 {{citation}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  35. ^ http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=probability+of+12+successes+in+14+trials
  36. ^ http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=probability+of+8+successes+in+8+trials
  37. ^ "World Cup Forecasts: Paul the Octopus Predicts a German Advance", Spiegel Online International, 23 June 2010, Factiva SPION00020100623e66n0002z, retrieved 10 July 2010
  38. ^ Associated Press (25 June 2010), Binational octopus Paul predicts German win over England in next WCup game, Factiva APRS000020100625e66p001d2, retrieved 10 July 2010
  39. ^ "World Cup Final a Battle of Octopus vs. Parakeet". CBS News. 9 July 2010. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)

Further reading

External links

Wikimedia Commons has media related to Paul the Octopus.

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