Talk:James Hansen

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Hansen's huge mistake[edit]

As is clearly implied in energy budget diagrams (IPCC, NASA, Trenberth) the mean surface temperature (288K) is supposedly explained by adding mean solar radiation (168W/m^2) less non-radiative surface cooling losses (-102W/m^2) plus supposed input of thermal energy by way of 324W/m^2 of radiation from the colder atmosphere to the warmer surface. The net sum of this radiation, 390W/m^2, if it were uniform night and day (which it obviously is not) would raise a blackbody to 288K. But, because of the fact that the temperature achieved is proportional only to the fourth root of the flux, and because the solar flux is very variable (from zero at night up to about 800W/m^2 where the Sun is directly overhead around noon on a clear day at some latitude in the tropics) the actual mean temperature would be at least 10 degrees cooler. But that is not the only mistake. If it were correct to add the atmospheric radiation to get the mean temperature, then you would need to show that all temperatures everywhere can always be correctly calculated by adding the atmospheric radiation to the solar radiation. So consider those places like Singapore in the tropics that can receive up to about 800W/m^2 of direct solar radiation on a clear day when about 60% of the solar constant radiation (1362W/m^2) gets to the surface because albedo is less in the absence of clouds. If we then add over 324W/m^2 of atmospheric radiation (probably really more in such warmer-than-average regions) we get blackbody temperatures around 95°C. Yet in Singapore the daily maximum is nearly always 31°C or 32°C and the minimum 25°C or 26°C virtually every day and night of the year, whether cloudy or clear. The atmospheric radiation at night could not explain the minimum, and if you also include it by day you get absurd temperatures around 95°C. Hence there is something seriously wrong with the whole radiative forcing greenhouse conjecture which Hansen based entirely upon the assumption that atmospheric radiation helps the Sun to raise the surface temperature each morning. There is a totally different paradigm which does explain all observed temperatures, but this is not the place to discuss such.

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