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2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Mississippi

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Mississippi's congressional districts in 2010

Elections were held on November 2, 2010 to determine Mississippi's four members of the United States House of Representatives. Representatives were elected for two-year terms to serve in the 112th United States Congress from January 3, 2011 until January 3, 2013. Primary elections were held on June 1, 2010, and primary runoff elections on June 22.[1]

Of the four elections, the 1st district was rated as competitive by Sabato's Crystal Ball,[2] and the 1st and 4th districts were rated as competitive by The Cook Political Report,[3] CQ Politics[4] and The Rothenberg Political Report.[5] Two of four incumbents were re-elected (Democrat Bennie Thompson of the 2nd district and Republican Gregg Harper of the 3rd district), while two unsuccessfully sought re-election (Democrats Travis Childers of the 1st district and Gene Taylor of the 4th district).[6]

In total, three Republicans and one Democrat were elected.[7] A total of 788,549 votes were cast, of which 423,579 (54 percent) were for Republican candidates, 350,695 (44 percent) were for Democratic candidates, 6,560 (1 percent) were for an independent candidate, 4,292 (1 percent) were for Reform Party candidates, 2,188 (0.3 percent) were for Libertarian Party candidates and 1,235 (0.2 percent) were for a Constitution Party candidate.[8]

District 1

Mississippi's 1st congressional district in 2010
Alan Nunnelee, who was elected to represent the 1st district
Travis Childers, who unsuccessfully sought re-election in the 1st district
See also: Mississippi's 1st congressional district

In 2010 the 1st district included Horn Lake, Olive Branch, Southaven and Tupelo.[9] The district's population was 69 percent white and 27 percent black (see Race and ethnicity in the United States Census); 77 percent were high school graduates and 17 percent had received a bachelor's degree or higher. Its median income was $38,944.[10] In the 2008 presidential election the district gave 62 percent of its vote to Republican nominee John McCain and 37 percent to Democratic nominee Barack Obama.[9] In 2010 the district had a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+14.[3]

Democrat Travis Childers, who was elected in a 2008 special election, was the incumbent. Childers was re-elected in the regularly-scheduled 2008 election with 55 percent of the vote.[9] In May 2009 Childers denied planning to switch parties and seek re-election as a Republican, describing himself as a "Southern Democrat".[11] In 2010 the Republican nominee was Alan Nunnelee, a member of the Mississippi State Senate.[12] A. G. Baddley, an electrician;[13] Les Green, a teacher;[14] Rick "Rico" Hoskins; and Wally Pang, a retired restaurateur,[15] ran as independent candidates. Gail Giaramita, a nurse, ran as the Constitution Party nominee.[16] Harold Taylor, a former chair of the Libertarian Party of Mississippi, ran as the Libertarian Party nominee.[17] Barbara Dale Washer, a teacher, ran as the Reform Party nominee.[18]

Angela McGlowan, a Fox News political analyst;[19] and Henry Ross, a former mayor of Eupora,[20] also ran for the Republican nomination. Greg Davis, the mayor of Southaven who ran unsuccessfully in both 2008 elections, said in March 2009 that he would not run again in 2010.[21] Merle Flowers, a member of the Mississippi Senate, met with the National Republican Congressional Committee in June 2009, but ultimately decided not to run.[22]

Childers raised $1,817,037 and spent $1,796,376. Nunnelee raised $1,739,384 and spent $1,617,120. Green raised $40,296 and spent the same amount. Pang raised no money and spent $6,900. Giaramita raised $12,730 and spent $12,913.[23]

In a poll of 303 likely voters, conducted in June 2010 by the Tarrance Group for Nunnelee's campaign, 50 percent of respondents supported Nunnelee while 42 percent favored Childers and 8 percent were undecideed.[24] In an Anzalone-Liszt poll of 400 likely voters, conducted in August and September 2010, Childers led with 46 percent to Nunnelee's 41 percent.[25] Republican internal polls of 300 likely voters by Tarrance, conducted in September and October 2010, found Nunnelee leading Childers by 48 percent to 41 percent and by 51 percent to 40 percent respectively.[26] A poll of 603 likely voters, conducted by Penn Schoen Berland in October 2010, found Nunnelee leading Childers by 44 percent to 39 percent with 12 percent undecided.[27]

Sabato's Crystal Ball rated the race as "Leans Republican".[2] In October 2010 The Cook Political Report rated the race as a "toss up"[3] and CQ Politics rated the race as a "tossup".[4] In November 2010The Rothenberg Political Report rated it as "Toss-up/Tilt Republican".[5] FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Nunnelee an 82 percent chance of winning, and projected that he would receive 52 percent of the vote to Childers's 45 percent.[26]

On election day Nunnelee was elected with 55 percent of the vote to Childers's 41 percent.[28] Nunnelee was re-elected in 2012[29] and 2014.[30] Childers unsuccessfully ran for the U.S. Senate in 2014.[31]

Republican primary results

Mississippi's 1st congressional district Republican primary, June 1, 2010[32]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Alan Nunnelee 20,236 51.82
Republican Henry Ross 12,894 33.02
Republican Angela McGlowan 5,924 15.17
Total votes 39,144 100.00

General election results

Mississippi's 1st congressional district general election, November 2, 2010[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Alan Nunnelee 121,074 55.26
Democratic Travis Childers (incumbent) 89,388 40.80
Independent Wally Pang 2,180 1.00
Independent Les Green 2,020 0.92
Independent A. G. Baddley 1,882 0.86
Constitution Gail Giaramita 1,235 0.56
Independent Rick "Rico" Hoskins 478 0.22
Libertarian Harold M. Taylor 447 0.20
Reform Barbara Dale Washer 389 0.18
Total votes 219,093 100.00

District 2

Mississippi's 2nd congressional district in 2010
Bennie Thompson, who was re-elected as the U.S. Representative for the 1st district
"Bill Marcy" redirects here. Not to be confused with Bill Macy.
See also: Mississippi's 2nd congressional district

In 2010 the 2nd district included Clinton, Greenville and parts of Jackson.[33] The district's population was 66 percent black and 32 percent white (see Race and ethnicity in the United States Census); 75 percent were high school graduates and 18 percent had received a bachelor's degree or higher. Its median income was $30,578.[34] In the 2008 presidential election the district gave 66 percent of its vote to Democratic nominee Barack Obama and 33 percent to Republican nominee John McCain.[33]

Democrat Bennie Thompson, who took office in 1993, was the incumbent. Thompson was re-elected in 2008 with 69 percent of the vote.[33] In 2010 the Republican nominee was Bill Marcy, a former police officer.[35] George Bailey and Richard Cook, a teacher, also ran in the Republican primary.[36] Ashley Norwood ran as the Reform Party nominee.[35]

Thompson raised $1,808,681 and spent $1,343,456. Marcy raised $47,933 and spent $40,847.[37] In a poll of 442 registered voters and likely voters, conducted by JMC Enterprises in September 2010, 35 percent of respondents intended to vote for Thompson while 34 percent intended to vote for Marcy and 31 percent were undecided.[38] A JMC poll of 441 registered voters and likely voters conducted in October 2010 found Thompson leading with 42 percent to Marcy's 41 percent, while 17 percent were undecided.[39] Prior to the election FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Thompson a 99 percent chance of winning, and projected that he would receive 57 percent of the vote to Marcy's 40 percent.[40]

On election day Thompson was re-elected with 61 percent of the vote to Marcy's 38 percent.[41] Thompson was re-elected in 2012[42] and 2014.[30] Marcy ran again in the 2nd district in 2012 and sought the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate in 2014.[43]

Republican primary results

Mississippi's 2nd congressional district Republican primary, June 1, 2010[32]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Richard Cook 2,232 34.77
Republican Bill Marcy 2,231 34.75
Republican George Bailey 1,957 30.48
Total votes 6,420 100.00

Republican primary runoff results

Mississippi's 2nd congressional district Republican primary runoff, June 22, 2010[44]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Marcy 3,126 58.36
Republican Richard Cook 2,230 41.64
Total votes 5,356 100.00

General election results

Mississippi's 2nd congressional district general election, November 2, 2010[41]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Bennie Thompson (incumbent) 105,327 61.47
Republican Bill Marcy 64,499 37.64
Reform Ashley Norwood 1,530 0.89
Total votes 171,356 100.00

District 3

Mississippi's 3rd congressional district in 2010
Gregg Harper, who was re-elected as the U.S. Representative for the 3rd district
"James D. Jackson" redirects here. For other people with the same name, see James Jackson.
See also: Mississippi's 3rd congressional district

In 2010 the 3rd district included Meridian, Pearl and parts of Jackson.[45] The district's population was 62 percent white and 34 percent black (see Race and ethnicity in the United States Census); 81 percent were high school graduates and 23 percent had received a bachelor's degree or higher. Its median income was $38,777.[46] In the 2008 presidential election the district gave 61 percent of its vote to Republican nominee John McCain and 39 percent to Democratic nominee Barack Obama.[45]

Republican Gregg Harper, who was first elected in 2008, was the incumbent. In 2008 Harper received 63 percent of the vote.[45] In 2010 the Democratic nominee was Joel Gill, the mayor of Pickens.[47] James D. Jackson, a sociology professor; and Shawn O'Hara, a frequent candidate for office, also sought the Democratic nomination.[48] O'Hara's sister, Tracella Lou O'Hara Hill, also ran as the Reform Party nominee.[49]

Harper raised $715,014 and spent $688,959.[50] Prior to the election FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Harper a 100 percent chance of winning, and projected that he would receive 70 percent of the vote to Gill's 28 percent.[51] On election day Harper was re-elected with 68 percent of the vote to Gill's 31 percent.[52] Gill unsuccessfully ran for Mississippi Agriculture Commissioner in 2011, and died in a car accident in October 2012.[53] Harper was again re-elected in 2012[54] and 2014.[30]

Democratic primary results

Mississippi's 3rd congressional district Democratic primary, June 1, 2010[55]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joel Gill 3,805 52.33
Democratic James D. Jackson 2,138 29.40
Democratic Shawn O'Hara 1,328 18.26
Total votes 7,271 100.00

General election results

Mississippi's 3rd congressional district general election, November 2, 2010[56]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Gregg Harper (incumbent) 132,393 67.99
Democratic Joel Gill 60,737 31.19
Reform Tracella Lou O’Hara Hill 1,586 0.81
Total votes 194,716 100.00

District 4

Mississippi's 4th congressional district in 2010
Steven Palazzo, who was elected to represent the 4th district
Gene Taylor, who unsuccessfully sought re-election in the 4th district
"Tim Hampton" redirects here. For the British musician, see Bromheads Jacket.
See also: Mississippi's 4th congressional district

In 2010 the 4th district included Gulfport and Hattiesburg.[57] The district's population was 71 percent white and 23 percent black (see Race and ethnicity in the United States Census); 81 percent were high school graduates and 18 percent had received a bachelor's degree or higher. Its median income was $41,245.[58] In the 2008 presidential election the district gave 67 percent of its vote to Republican nominee John McCain and 32 percent to Democratic nominee Barack Obama.[57] In 2010 the district had a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+20.[3]

Democrat Gene Taylor, who took office in 1989, was the incumbent. Taylor was re-elected in 2008 with 75 percent of the vote.[57] In 2010 Taylor's opponent in the general election was Steven Palazzo, a member of the Mississippi House of Representatives.[59] Joe Tegerdine, a businessman, also sought the Republican nomination.[60] Tim Hampton, the Libertarian Party nominee, and Anna Jewel Revies, the nominee of the Reform Party, also ran.[61]

Taylor raised $855,983 and spent $968,943. Palazzo raised $1,079,453 and spent $1,026,476.[62] Tegerdine raised $74,586 and spent $74,500.[63]

In a poll by the Tarrance Group, conducted for Palazzo's campaign in September 2010, 45 percent of respondents supported Taylor while 41 percent favored Palazzo.[64] In October 2010 Taylor said his own internal polling showed him leading Palazzo by eight percentage points.[65] Another poll by Tarrance for Palazzo's campaign, conducted later in October 2010 with a sample size of 300 likely voters, Palazzo led with 43 percent to Taylor's 41 percent, while 3 percent supported other candidates and 12 percent were undecided.[66]

In October 2010 The Cook Political Report rated the race as a "toss up"[3] and CQ Politics rated the race as a "tossup".[4] In November 2010 The Rothenberg Political Report rated the race as "Pure Toss-up".[5] Prior to the election FiveThirtyEight's forecast gave Palazzo a 59 percent chance of winning and projected that he would receive 50 percent of the vote to Taylor's 48 percent.[67]

On election day Palazzo was elected with 52 percent of the vote to Taylor's 47 percent.[68] Palazzo was re-elected in 2012[69] and 2014.[30] In 2014 Taylor unsuccessfully challenged Palazzo in the Republican primary in the 4th district.[70]

Republican primary results

Mississippi's 4th congressional district Republican primary, June 1, 2010[32]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Steven Palazzo 15,556 57.15
Republican Joe Tegerdine 11,663 42.85
Total votes 27,219 100.00

General election results

Mississippi's 4th congressional district general election, November 2, 2010[68]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Steven Palazzo 105,613 51.93
Democratic Gene Taylor (incumbent) 95,243 46.83
Libertarian Tim Hampton 1,741 0.86
Reform Anna Jewel Revies 787 0.39
Total votes 203,384 100.00

Further reading

  • Lansford, Tom (2011). "Mississippi District 4 Race (Palazzo v. Taylor): A Conservative Democrat Loses to a More Conservative Republican". In Foreman, Sean D.; Dewhirst, Robert (eds.). Lanham, Maryland: Lexington Books. pp. 55–66. {{cite book}}: |work= ignored (help); Missing or empty |title= (help)

See also

References

  1. ^ "2010 elections calendar" (PDF). Secretary of State of Mississippi. November 10, 2009. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
  2. ^ a b "Mississippi (01) House 2010". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved December 29, 2013.
  3. ^ a b c d e "2010 competitive House race chart". The Cook Political Report. October 26, 2010. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved January 5, 2014.
  4. ^ a b c "Race Ratings Chart: House". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved January 5, 2014.
  5. ^ a b c "House Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. November 1, 2010. Retrieved December 29, 2013.
  6. ^ "Taylor, Childers defeated in Mississippi". USA Today. December 3, 2010. Retrieved December 30, 2013.
  7. ^ "Mississippi". The New York Times. Retrieved January 20, 2014.
  8. ^ Haas, Karen L. (June 3, 2011). "Statistics of the congressional election of November 2, 2010". Clerk of the United States House of Representatives. p. 27. Retrieved December 29, 2013.
  9. ^ a b c "Mississippi – 1st District". Roll Call. Retrieved December 30, 2013.
  10. ^ "Mississippi 1st District Profile". The New York Times. Retrieved March 20, 2014.
  11. ^ Brumfield, Patsy R. (May 19, 2009). "Childers: Year one". Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal. Retrieved February 16, 2014.
  12. ^ Westbrook, Courtney (June 2, 2010). "ELECTION UPDATES: Nunnelee wins GOP congressional primary in 1st District". Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal. Retrieved December 30, 2013.
  13. ^ Long, Robert Lee (October 28, 2010). "A.G. Baddley". Desoto Times Tribune. Retrieved December 30, 2013.
  14. ^ Webb, Kayleigh (October 25, 2010). "Ole Miss alumnus enters Congressional race". The Daily Mississippian. Archived from the original on November 30, 2010. Retrieved December 30, 2013.
  15. ^ Wagster Pettus, Emily (August 9, 2010). "In 1st District, newcomers nipping at big dogs Childers, Nunnelee". The Commercial Appeal. Retrieved December 30, 2013.
  16. ^ Long, Robert Lee (October 28, 2010). "Gail Giaramita". Desoto Times Tribune. Retrieved December 30, 2013.
  17. ^ Long, Robert Lee (October 28, 2010). "Harold Taylor". Desoto Times Tribune. Retrieved December 30, 2013.
  18. ^ Long, Robert Lee (October 28, 2010). "Barbara Dale Washer". Desoto Times Tribune. Retrieved December 30, 2013.
  19. ^ Isenstadt, Alex (February 10, 2010). "Fox News analyst Angela McGlowan launches House bid". Politico. Retrieved December 30, 2013.
  20. ^ "Ross to kick off run for Congress". Mississippi Business Journal. January 29, 2010. Retrieved December 30, 2013.
  21. ^ "Mississippi: Two GOP State Senators Eye 1st District Race". Roll Call. March 24, 2009. Retrieved February 16, 2014.
  22. ^ McArdle, John (June 18, 2009). "GOP Looks to Avoid Primary in Race Against Childers". Roll Call. Retrieved February 16, 2014.
  23. ^ "Mississippi District 01 Race". Center for Responsive Politics. Retrieved December 30, 2013.
  24. ^ "Internal Poll: Nunnelee 8 Points Up". Roll Call. June 15, 2010. Retrieved December 30, 2013.
  25. ^ West, Phil (September 8, 2010). "Childers leads Nunnelee in poll of First District". The Commercial Appeal. Retrieved December 30, 2013.
  26. ^ a b "Mississippi 1st District". The New York Times. Retrieved December 30, 2013.
  27. ^ Goodin, Emily (October 19, 2010). "The Hill Midterm Poll: District by district". The Hill. Archived from the original on October 21, 2010. Retrieved December 30, 2013.
  28. ^ a b "Official Recapitulation" (PDF). Secretary of State of Mississippi. November 15, 2010. p. 9. Retrieved December 30, 2013.
  29. ^ West, Phil (November 6, 2012). "Nunnelee wins U.S. House race in North Mississippi". The Commercial Appeal. Retrieved December 30, 2013.
  30. ^ a b c d "Miss. incumbents sweep re-election in House races". The Clarion-Ledger. November 4, 2014. Retrieved November 17, 2014.
  31. ^ Lachman, Samantha (November 4, 2014). "Travis Childers Loses Senate Race To Thad Cochran". The Huffington Post. Retrieved November 17, 2014.
  32. ^ a b c "Statewide certification" (PDF). Secretary of State of Mississippi. June 10, 2010. Retrieved December 30, 2013.
  33. ^ a b c "Mississippi – 2nd District". Roll Call. Retrieved December 30, 2013.
  34. ^ "Mississippi 2nd District Profile". The New York Times. Retrieved March 20, 2014.
  35. ^ a b "Haley wins in S.C.; Marcy wins in Miss". United Press International. June 22, 2010. Retrieved December 30, 2013.
  36. ^ "Marcy, Cook in GOP Runoff". WTOK. June 3, 2010. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
  37. ^ "Mississippi District 02 Race". Center for Responsive Politics. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
  38. ^ "Poll Results for the 2nd Congressional District of Mississippi" (PDF). JMC Enterprises. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
  39. ^ "Poll Results for the 2nd Congressional District of Mississippi". JMC Enterprises. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
  40. ^ "Mississippi 2nd District". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
  41. ^ a b "Official Recapitulation" (PDF). Secretary of State of Mississippi. November 15, 2010. p. 9. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
  42. ^ "Thompson re-elected in Miss. 2nd US House district". WAPT. November 7, 2012. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
  43. ^ "Travis Childers wins Mississippi's Democratic nomination for Senate". Chattanooga Times Free Press. June 3, 2014. Retrieved November 17, 2014.
  44. ^ "State party certification" (PDF). Secretary of State of Mississippi. July 1, 2010. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
  45. ^ a b c "Mississippi – 3rd District". Roll Call. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
  46. ^ "Mississippi 3rd District Profile". The New York Times. Retrieved March 20, 2014.
  47. ^ Brown, Jennifer Jacob (June 3, 2010). "Gill moves on to general election". The Meridian Star. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
  48. ^ "Nunnelee named winner in 1st District, avoids runoff". The Commercial Dispatch. June 1, 2010. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
  49. ^ "O'Hara Seeks Third District Seat". WTOK. May 11, 2010. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
  50. ^ "Mississippi District 03 Race". Center for Responsive Politics. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
  51. ^ "Mississippi 3rd District". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
  52. ^ "Official Recapitulation" (PDF). Secretary of State of Mississippi. p. 9. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
  53. ^ "Pickens Mayor Joel Gill Dies in Car Crash". Jackson Free Press. October 19, 2012. Retrieved January 1, 2014.
  54. ^ "Harper re-elected in Miss. 3rd US House district". WAPT. November 7, 2012. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
  55. ^ "Statewide Democratic results" (PDF). Secretary of State of Mississippi. June 11, 2010. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
  56. ^ "Official Recapitulation" (PDF). Secretary of State of Mississippi. November 15, 2010. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
  57. ^ a b c "Mississippi – 4th District". Roll Call. Retrieved January 1, 2014.
  58. ^ "Mississippi 4th District Profile". The New York Times. Retrieved March 20, 2014.
  59. ^ Wilkinson, Kaija (June 2, 2010). "Full Report: Steven Palazzo wins Republican primary, will face Taylor in Nov. 2 election". gulflive.com. Retrieved January 1, 2014.
  60. ^ Ward, Cherie (January 22, 2010). "Joe Tegerdine to run for Congress". gulflive.com. Retrieved January 1, 2014.
  61. ^ Wilkinson, Kaija (May 26, 2010). "Republicans vie for chance to run against incumbent Taylor to represent fourth district". gulflive.com. Retrieved January 1, 2014.
  62. ^ "Mississippi District 04 Race". Center for Responsive Politics. Retrieved January 1, 2014.
  63. ^ "Joe Tegerdine (R)". Center for Responsive Politics. Retrieved January 1, 2014.
  64. ^ Burns, Alexander (September 27, 2010). "GOP up 4 in House battle – Poll: 32% would consider Bloomberg – DLCC names 20 top targets – Dem poll: Denish tied in N.M. – AFL-CIO hits Raese, McMahon – Gene Taylor in danger zone?". Politico. Retrieved January 1, 2014.
  65. ^ Farrell, David A. (October 9, 2010). "Taylor polls show 8 point lead; Palazzo claims race is in a dead heat". Picayune Item. Archived from the original on October 17, 2010. Retrieved February 16, 2014.
  66. ^ Goeas, Ed; Thompson, Nicholas (October 20, 2010). "Findings from survey of MS 4 voters". Tarrance Group. Retrieved January 1, 2013.
  67. ^ "Mississippi 4th District". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved January 1, 2014.
  68. ^ a b "Official Recapitulation" (PDF). Secretary of State of Mississippi. November 15, 2010. Retrieved January 1, 2014.
  69. ^ "Palazzo, Wicker among incumbents re-elected in MS". WLOX. November 7, 2012. Retrieved January 1, 2013.
  70. ^ "Gene Taylor Defeated By Steven Palazzo In GOP Primary For Congress In Mississippi". The Huffington Post. June 4, 2014. Retrieved November 17, 2014.
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