2004 United States presidential election in Nevada

United States presidential election in Nevada, 2004
	County Results Kerry—50-60% Bush—50-60% Bush—60-70% Bush—70-80%
President before election; George W. Bush; Republican	Elected President ; George W. Bush; Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 5 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Nevada was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 2.6% margin of victory. Prior to the election, news organizations who made predictions were split on who would win the state, with half saying it leaned Bush, or a red state and the others who implied it as a swing state. Only one county of the state, Clark County, home of Las Vegas and the most populous county of the state, went for John F. Kerry. Kerry's second best performance in the state was Washoe County, which he lost with 47% of the vote. Moreover, the statewide results here were very similar to the nationwide results in 2004, making it the bellwether of the country. Also, Nevada has voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1912, except for 1976. Third party and independents made up over 1% of the vote, led by Ralph Nader.

Caucuses

Nevada Democratic caucuses, 2004

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[1]

D.C. Political Report: Slight Republican
Associated Press: Toss Up
CNN: Bush
Cook Political Report: Toss Up
Newsweek: Leans Bush
New York Times: Leans Bush
Rasmussen Reports: Toss Up
Research 2000: Lean Bush
Washington Post: Battleground
Washington Times: Solid Bush
Zogby International: Kerry
Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Bush only lost one pre-election poll throughout the general election. By the fall, Bush pulled away and reached 50%. However, in the very last week, some voters did change their minds as Bush's numbers went down slightly. The last 3 average polls showed Bush leading with 49% to 47%.^[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $2,296,762.^[3] Kerry raised $793,504.^[4]

Advertising and visits

Bush visited the state 3 times. Kerry visited the state 6 times. Both of them visited the same places: Las Vegas and Reno. Almost every week, the candidates combined spent over $1 million in advertising.^[5]

Analysis

With Bush's victory in 2000 being less than 50%, he was vulnerable in the state. Bush's performance ended up being almost identical to the last election's results, but although he broke 50% this time, his margin of victory was slightly reduced.

Despite winning almost all of the counties, Bush wasn't dominant among the congressional districts, where he won two of the three, but the third congressional district with just 50% of the vote.

The only major difference in county results was Bush's big jump in rural Esmeralda County, which he won with over 76%. The only county Kerry won was Democratic leaning Clark County, the most populous county in the state, where Las Vegas is located. However he won the county with only about 52% of the vote, which was not enough to carry the state.

Results

United States presidential election in Nevada, 2004
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	George W. Bush (incumbent)	418,690	50.47%	5
	Democratic	John Kerry	397,190	47.88%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	4,838	0.58%	0
	N/A	None of these Candidates	3,688	0.44%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	3,176	0.38%	0
	American Independent	Michael Peroutka	1,152	0.14%	0
	Green	David Cobb	853	0.10%	0
Totals			829,587	100.00%	5
Voter turnout (Voting age population)					50.0%

Results breakdown

By county

County	Kerry %	Kerry #	Bush %	Bush #	Others %	Others #
Elko	19.9%	3,050	78.0%	11,938	2.1%	321
Lander	20.2%	414	78.0%	1,602	1.8%	37
Eureka	19.5%	144	77.4%	571	3.1%	23
Lincoln	20.4%	418	77.1%	1,579	2.4%	50
Esmeralda	20.6%	99	76.3%	367	3.1%	15
Humboldt	25.4%	1,361	72.6%	3,896	2.0%	110
Churchill	26.4%	2,705	71.5%	7,335	1.9%	197
Pershing	28.1%	538	70.0%	1,341	2.0	38
White Pine	28.5%	1,082	68.5%	2,604	3.1%	116
Lyon	32.9%	5,637	64.9%	11,136	2.2%	378
Douglas	34.6%	8,275	63.6%	15,192	1.8%	431
Nye	38.7%	5,616	58.5%	8,487	2.8%	407
Storey	40.2%	871	57.8%	1,253	2.0%	44
Mineral	40.0%	931	57.4%	1,336	2.6%	60
Carson City	40.9%	9,441	57.0%	13,171	2.1%	494
Washoe	47.0%	74,841	51.3%	81,545	1.7%	2,693
Clark	51.7%	281,767	46.5%	255,337	1.5%	8,293

By congressional district

Bush won 2 of 3 congressional districts.^[6]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	42%	57%	Shelley Berkley
2nd	57%	41%	Jim Gibbons
3rd	50%	49%	Jon Porter

Electors

Technically the voters of Nevada cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Nevada is allocated 5 electors because it has 3 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 5 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 5 were pledged for Bush/Cheney:^[7]

Joe Brown
Milton Schwartz
John Marvel
Beverly Willard
Paul Willis