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2018 California's 10th congressional district election
← 2016
2020 →
 
Nominee Josh Harder Jeff Denham
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 115,945 105,955
Percentage 52.3% 47.7%
County results
Harder:      50–60%
U.S. Representative before election

Jeff Denham
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Josh Harder
Democratic

Main article: 2018 California's 10th congressional district election
See also: California's 10th congressional district

The 10th district was based in the Central Valley and included Modesto (and the remainder of Stanislaus County), Manteca, and Tracy (with other portions of southern San Joaquin County). Republican Jeff Denham, who had represented the 10th district since 2013 and previously represented the 19th district from 2011 to 2013, ran for re-election. He was re-elected with 51.7% of the vote in 2016. The district had a PVI of EVEN.

Primary election

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Republican candidates

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Advanced to general
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Eliminated in primary
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  • Ted Howze, veterinarian

Democratic candidates

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California's 10th district was included on the list of Republican-held seats being targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2018.[1]

Advanced to general
[edit]
Eliminated in primary
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  • Mike Barkley, lawyer, accountant, programmer and candidate for this seat in 2014 & 2016
  • Michael Eggman, farmer, small businessman and general election candidate for this seat in 2014 & 2016
  • Virginia Madueno, former mayor of Riverbank[3][4]
  • Sue Zwahlen, registered nurse and former Modesto City Schools Board of Education member
Withdrawn
[edit]
  • Lisa Battista
  • Mateo Morelos Bedolla
  • TJ Cox, engineer and small businessman (running in the 21st)[5]
  • Dotty Nygard, registered nurse and former Riverbank City Council member[6]
  • Seth Vaughn
Declined
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Independent candidates

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Withdrawn
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  • Scott Shoblom, attorney
  • Terra Snover

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jeff
Denham (R) 		Michael
Eggman (D) 		Josh
Harder (D) 		Virginia
Madueño (D) 		Sue
Zwahlen (D) 		Other Undecided
Benenson Strategy Group (D-Harder)[9] May 2–6, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 42% 10% 13% 6% 6% 5%[10] 4%

Results

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Results by county:
  Denham—30–40%
Nonpartisan blanket primary results[11]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jeff Denham (incumbent) 45,719 37.5
Democratic Josh Harder 20,742 17.0
Republican Ted D. Howze 17,723 14.6
Democratic Michael Eggman 12,446 10.2
Democratic Virginia Madueño 11,178 9.2
Democratic Sue Zwahlen 9,945 8.2
Democratic Michael J. "Mike" Barkley 2,904 2.4
Democratic Dotty Nygard (withdrawn) 1,100 0.9
Total votes 121,757 100.0

General election

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Endorsements

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Jeff Denham (R)

Organizations

Josh Harder (D)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Debate

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2018 California's 10th congressional district debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Jeff Denham Josh Harder
1 September 22, 2018 Turlock Journal
Univision 19 		Kristina Hacker [19] P P

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jeff
Denham (R) 		Josh
Harder (D) 		Undecided
NYT Upshot/Siena College[20] October 21–25, 2018 501 ± 4.9% 45% 47% 8%
UC Berkeley[21] September 16–23, 2018 726 ± 5.0% 45% 50% 5%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[22] June 27 – July 1, 2018 501 – 48% 48% 4%
ALG Research (D-Eggman)[23] March 13–15, 2018 400 – 48% 37% 15%

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[24] Tossup November 5, 2018
Inside Elections[25] Tossup November 5, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[26] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
RCP[27] Tossup November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[28] Tossup November 5, 2018
538[29] Likely D (flip) November 7, 2018
CNN[30] Tossup October 31, 2018
Politico[31] Tossup November 4, 2018

Results

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Although Denham led the reported vote count for several days, Harder ultimately won the general election by almost 10,000 votes with Denham conceding defeat on November 14.[32][33]

California's 10th congressional district election, 2018[34]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Josh Harder 115,945 52.3
Republican Jeff Denham (incumbent) 105,955 47.7
Majority 9,990 4.6
Total votes 221,900 100.0
Democratic gain from Republican


Footnotes

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References

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  1. ^ "Charging Forward, DCCC Announces Battlefield Expansion" (PDF). Retrieved 2024-01-05.
  2. ^ Wire, Sarah D. (May 3, 2017). "Central Valley's Jeff Denham gets new 2018 challenger". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved May 3, 2017.
  3. ^ a b Jardine, Jeff (May 3, 2017). "Denham beatable in 2018? Only if Democrats bet lots of money on right candidate". The Modesto Bee. Retrieved May 13, 2017.
  4. ^ Martin, Angelina (May 12, 2017). "Candidates stepping forward to challenge Denham in 2018". Turlock Journal. Retrieved May 12, 2017.
  5. ^ "Cox Upends CA-10, Switches to CA-21". The Valley Citizen. March 4, 2018. Retrieved September 19, 2018.
  6. ^ Frisby, Nina (April 26, 2017). "Nygard Announces Bid for Congressional Post". Oakdale Leader. Retrieved April 26, 2017.
  7. ^ Jardine, Jeff (March 6, 2017). "Denham inspiring the base, but which one more? Conservative or liberal?". The Modesto Bee. Retrieved May 13, 2017.
  8. ^ Blanco, Octavio (March 14, 2016). "How this son of migrant farm workers became an astronaut". CNN. Retrieved May 12, 2017.
  9. ^ Benenson Strategy Group (D-Harder)
  10. ^ Ted Howze (R) 4%, Mike Barkley (D) 1%
  11. ^ Cite error: The named reference Primary Election was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  12. ^ "Candidates". National Republican Congressional Committee. Archived from the original on 7 November 2018. Retrieved 5 June 2023.
  13. ^ Barack Obama [@BarackObama] (August 1, 2018). "Today I'm proud to endorse such a wide and impressive array of Democratic candidates – leaders as diverse, patriotic, and big-hearted as the America they're running to represent" (Tweet). Retrieved August 1, 2018 – via Twitter.
  14. ^ a b c d e f "Endorsements". Josh Harder for Congress. Archived from the original on September 9, 2020. Retrieved October 13, 2018.
  15. ^ Cite error: The named reference RtB was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  16. ^ Cite error: The named reference JStreetPAC Candidates was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  17. ^ "Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. March 14, 2017. Retrieved October 13, 2018.
  18. ^ "Endorsements | Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide". Sierra Club. July 16, 2012. Retrieved April 4, 2018.
  19. ^ C-SPAN
  20. ^ NYT Upshot/Siena College
  21. ^ UC Berkeley
  22. ^ Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)
  23. ^ ALG Research (D-Eggman)
  24. ^ Cite error: The named reference Cook was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  25. ^ Cite error: The named reference IE was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  26. ^ Cite error: The named reference Sab was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  27. ^ Cite error: The named reference RCP was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  28. ^ Cite error: The named reference Kos was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  29. ^ Cite error: The named reference F538 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  30. ^ Cite error: The named reference CNN was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  31. ^ Cite error: The named reference RatingsAndPredictions was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  32. ^ "Denham vs Harder: Democrat ahead in heated house race for California's 10th District". KXTV. Retrieved November 10, 2018.
  33. ^ Finnegan, Maya; Sweedler, Michael. "GOP Rep. Denham falls behind Democrat as 3 other Republicans lose ground in Friday's ballot tally". The San Diego Union-Tribune. Retrieved November 10, 2018.
  34. ^ Cite error: The named reference General Election was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
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