Bosnian general election, 2010

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Bosnia and Herzegovina general election, 2010
Bosnia and Herzegovina
2006 ←
3 October → 2014

  First party Second party Third party
  Zlatko Lagumdžija.jpg Dodik, Milorad, 2010.jpg Sulejman Tihić.jpg
Leader Zlatko Lagumdžija Milorad Dodik Sulejman Tihić
Party SDP BiH SNSD SDA
Leader since 1997 1996 2001
Last election 5 7 9
Seats before 5 7 9
Seats won 8 8 7
Seat change Increase 3 Increase 1 Decrease 2
Popular vote 284,358 277,817 214,261

Chairman of the Council of Ministers before election

Nikola Špirić
SNSD

Elected Chairman of the Council of Ministers

Vjekoslav Bevanda
HDZ BiH

Coat of arms of Bosnia and Herzegovina.svg
This article is part of a series on the
politics and government of
Bosnia and Herzegovina

Presidential and parliamentary elections were held in Bosnia and Herzegovina on 3 October 2010 for both the Federal government and the two entities.[1]

Voters elected 42 deputies to the State House of Representatives.[2] In the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH), 98 deputies to its House of Representatives, two representatives (one Bosniak, one Croat) to the tripartite state presidency and ten cantonal assemblies were elected.[2] In Republika Srpska (RS), 83 deputies to its National Assembly, the Serb representative of the tripartite state presidency, one RS president and two RS vice-presidents were elected.[2] There were 39 political parties, 11 coalitions, and 13 independent candidates.[3]

Background[edit]

After the Bosnian War and the Dayton Accords that ended the war, the constitution set out, in Article V, a tripartite rotational presidency between the Bosniak, Croat and Serb entities. Each president serves a four-year term, with the chairman of the presidential council rotation every 8 months, with the first president being the one with most votes in the election.[4]

Candidates[edit]

Presidency[edit]

There were three candidates for the Bosniak member of the Presidency: the incumbent Haris Silajdžić, of Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina, the owner of Dnevni Avaz Fahrudin Radončić, of Union for a Better Future of BiH and Bakir Izetbegović of the Party of Democratic Action and the son of Alija Izetbegović, the founding president of Bosnia and Herzegovina.[5]

The Croat candidate was: incumbent Željko Komšić from Social Democratic Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina, who was elected in 2006 when large numbers of Bosniaks voted for him rather than voting for a Bosniak candidate.[5]

The Serb candidate was: incumbent Nebojša Radmanović of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, who was expected to win.[5]

Parties[edit]

Bosniak
Croat
Serb
Multi-ethnic

Campaign[edit]

Following the International Court of Justice's opinion that Kosovo's declaration of independence did not violate international law Republika Srpska's Prime Minister Milorad Dodik said there would be repercussions in Bosnia and Herzegovina and that the issue would be discussed in depth after the elections.[6] During his campaign Dodik reiterated support for the secession of Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina and denied that the massacre in Srebrenica constituted a genocide.[7] Boris Tadić, president of Serbia, expressed his support for Dodik, Tadić stated that he was "here to support my friends who run RS in the best possible way".[8][9] He was later criticised by the SDA for supporting "a man who openly denies genocide in Srebrenica and calls for secession of Republika Srpska."[8]

The Croat and Bosniak candidates were "strong supporters of a unified Bosnia," while Serb candidate advocated the separation of the Bosnian Serbs entity from the rest of the country.[10] Dodik asserted that "Only the Serb Republic is self-sustaining, Bosnia-Herzegovina is not." He had a "strategic partnership" with the Croat nationalist Dragan Čović to support each other's calls for greater independence or autonomy as the Croatian side advocated. The Bosniaks, however, said would fight for a united Bosnia, and sought a stronger federal government - a key condition for European Union membership.[11]

These polls were described as the most crucial since the civil war as a lot of campaigning focused on ethnic nationalism and voting for candidates of the same ethnicity. One political analyst, compared this campaign to that of 1990, before the partition of Yugoslavia, when Bosnia had the choice of becoming a part of greater Serbia or an independent multi-ethnic country pointed out that "for exactly 20 years we have been spinning around in the same political pattern."[4]

The official campaign started on 3 September, and lasted for next 30 days. Hate speech in the election campaign in BiH has become a normal occurrence. Because of that, Central Election Commission announced that they will not tolerate any form of hate speech.[12] Nervousness of political parties was manifested through the violation of the Election Law of BiH,[12] and particularly through the manipulation of so-called public opinion research and publication in the form of paid advertising. The first phase of the media war waged mainly through portals and news releases.

The campaign was significant because politicians were allowed to "use all their weapons" in publicity. Experts stated that this campaign was something new in Bosnia and Herzegovina because it was creative as opposed to the earlier campaigns.[12]

  • Serbian Democratic Party (SDS) - They started their election campaign with advertisements and election rallies in Banja Luka.
  • Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZBiH) - President of the party, prof. dr. sc. Dragan Čović hung out with the most socially vulnerable members of population. He stated that his party wants to emphasize the social care for people of Bosnia and Herzegovina, especially between Croats. Candidate for memeer of Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina Borjana Krišto started her official campaign on 3 September from her birth town Livno. In the morning she laid a wreath at the Memorial Center in the Donji Rujani, and at noon she addressed to the citizens at King Tomislav's Square in Livno, then she hung out with the assembled multitude. At the presence of many citizens, friends and members of her family she stated that her start of election campaign is very symbolic because Livno is a Croatian town that "never lost a single battle". She also added that she will come back victorious and "...announce victory of the Croatian people."
  • Union for a Better Future of BiH (SBB BiH) - At the first they of election campaign, supporters and sympathizers of the party had meet at the Iftar in Gradačac. At this meeting they stated that they will win the elections because they will "probably win those who gaved fake hope to the people previous years". About 600 fasting persons welcomed the party's president and candidate for Bosniak member of the Presidency, Fahrudin Radončić. Large number of syphatizers waited Radončić at the entrance of "Europrof", wher they later continued with Iftar.

Polling[edit]

Opinion polls suggested Dodik's "Alliance of Independent Social Democrats" would remain the largest Serb party, as well as the country as a whole. The "Social Democratic Party" of Zlatko Lagumdžija would be the largest party in the federation, followed by the "Party of Democratic Action."[11]

An analyst at the "Why not?" NGO in Sarajevo suggested the elections importance was because "change will finally happen [...] because the ones who are in power now have proved they are not capable of leading the country and bringing the necessary reforms. Civil society has been very active about these elections and we hope this will have an impact." She said that if there were changes in the establishment ethnic relations would not be as tense.[11] An August 2010 survey of 2,000 respondents by the National Democratic Institute. suggested that voters on both sides are tired of nationalist rhetoric and pessimistic about the future of Bosnia.[13] 87 percent felt that nationalist parties are leading the country in the wrong direction.[13] Respondents said politicians discussed nationalist issues too much, while employment and economic issues were not discussed enough.[13] They thought that the biggest issue was unemployment, followed by corruption and crime.[13]

Election[edit]

In total, 3,126,599 citizens registered to vote.[2] There were 5,276 polling centres: 4,981 regular, 145 for voting in absentia, 143 for voting in person and 7 at Bosnian embassies abroad.[3] There were also 1,200 observers, including 485 international observers.[11]

The Central Electoral Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina ordered a recount of 66,138 votes that were declared void.[14] This could change the victory of Nebojša Radmanović, candidate of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), who won the Serb seat of the central presidency by a narrow margin of 9,697.[14] Mladen Ivanić of the Party of Democratic Progress (PDP) lost by less than two percent.[14]

State Presidency[edit]

Relative majority by municipality for presidential election in the Federation.
  Komšić
  Krišto
  Izetbegović
  Đedović
  Radončić
Municipalities with Croatian majority in BiH. Although Krišto won majority of Croat votes while Komšić won very few Croat votes, thanks to Bosniak votes, Komšić still became Croat member of the Presidency.[15][16]

One President was elected to represent each of the country's three constitutional peoples: Bosniaks, Croats and Serbs. In Republika Srpska voters were given a ballot for the Serb member of the presidency. In the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina voters were given a ballot for both Bosniak and Croat candidates, but only a single candidate could be chosen. People residing in the Brčko District can choose to participate in either the Federation or Republika Srpska elections.[17]

e • d Summary of the 3 October 2010 Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidium election results
Candidates Nominating parties Federation of
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Republika Srpska
Votes Bosniak
list %
Croat
list %
Votes Serb
list %
Željko Komšić (Croat) SDP BiH 336,961 60.6%
Borjana Krišto (Croat) HDZ BiH 109,714 19.7%
Martin Raguž (Croat) Croatian Coalition (HDZ 1990, HSP BiH) 60,234 10.8%
Jerko Ivanković-Lijanović (Croat) NSRB 45,382 8.2%
Pero Galić (Croat) 1,579 0.3%
Mile Kutle (Croat) 1,069 0.2%
Ferdo Galić (Croat) 972 0.2%
Bakir Izetbegović (Bosniak) SDA 162,797 34.9%
Fahrudin Radončić (Bosniak) SBB BiH 142,359 30.5%
Haris Silajdžić (Bosniak) SBiH 117,168 25.1% :
Ibrahim Đedović (Bosniak) DNZ BiH 13,366 2.9%
Mujo Demirović (Bosniak) BPS 8,946 1.9%
Ðemal Latić (Bosniak) A-SDA 8,738 1.9%
Ibrahim Spahić (Bosniak) Civic Democratic Party 6,947 1.5%
Izudin Kešetović (Bosniak) BOSS 4,227 0.9%
Aida Jusić (Bosniak) 2,347 0.5%
Nebojša Radmanović (Serb) SNSD 295,624 48.9%
Mladen Ivanić (Serb) Coalition Together for Srpska 285,927 47.3%
Rajko Papović (Serb) Union for a Democratic Srpska/SDS 22,778 3.8%
Total 1,022,806 604,329
Source: Adam Carr's Election Archive, Izbori.ba


State Parliament[edit]

The new Parliamentary Assembly includes:

House of Representatives[edit]

According to the constitution, the representatives from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina are allocated 28 seats, while the representatives from the Republika Srpska have 14 seats. There are 42 seats in total. People residing in the Brčko District can choose to participate in either the Federation or Republika Srpska elections.[17]

Elections to the Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Representatives were conducted under a system of proportional representation (PR). Voters in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina elected twenty-one members in five multi-member constituencies by PR, while the remaining seven seats were allocated by compensatory PR. Voters in the Republika Srpska elected nine members in three multi-member constituencies by PR, while the five other seats were allocated by compensatory PR.[18]


e • d Summary of the 3 October 2010 House of Representatives of Bosnia and Herzegovina election results
Parties Federation of
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Republika Srpska Total votes Total +/-
Votes % Seats Votes % Seats
Social Democratic Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina (SDP BiH) 265,952 26.07 8 18,406 2.96 0 284,358 8 +3
Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) 8,810 0.86 0 269,007 43.30 8 277,817 8 +1
Party of Democratic Action (SDA) 197,890 19.40 7 16,371 2.64 0 214,261 7 –2
Serbian Democratic Party (SDS) 137,843 22.19 4 137,843 4 +1
Union for a Better Future of BiH (SBB BiH) 124,076 12.16 4 6,329 2.03 0 130,405 4 +4
Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZ BiH) 112,067 10.99 3 2,361 0.38 0 114,428 3 0
Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH) 73,946 7.25 2 12,640 2.03 0 86,586 2 –6
Croatian Coalition HDZ 1990-HSP BiH 49,524 4.86 2 522 0.08 0 50,046 2 0
People's Party Work for Betterment (NSRzB) 49,039 4.81 1 43,039 1 0
Party of Democratic Progress (PDP) 40,070 6.45 1 40,070 1 0
Democratic People's Alliance (DNS) 1,147 0.11 0 28,511 4.59 1 29,658 1 0
Democratic People's Community (DNZ) 14,839 1.45 1 14,839 1 0
Total 1,019,973 100.00 28 621,227 100.00 14 1,641,200 42


The elected representatives were:[citation needed]

SDP[edit]
  • Denis Bećirević
  • Zlatko Lagumdžija
  • Hamdija Lipovača
  • Mirsad Mešić
  • Mirza Kušljugić
  • Nermina Zaimović-Uzunović
  • Saša Magazinović
  • Danijela Martinović
SNSD[edit]
  • Nikola Špirić
  • Lazar Prodanović
  • Milorad Živković
  • Dušanka Majkić
  • Milica Marković
  • Boško Tomić
  • Drago Kalabić
  • Slavko Jovičić
SDA[edit]
  • Amir Fazlić
  • Šemsudin Mehmedović
  • Šefik Džaferović
  • Senad Šepić
  • Zijad Jagodić
  • Asim Sarajlić
  • Salko Sokolović
Others[edit]
  • SBB BiH: Ismeta Dervoz, Emir Kabil, Adnan Bašić, Mirsad Đugum
  • SDS: Mladen Bosić, Darko Babalj, Borislav Bojić, Aleksandra Pandurević
  • HDZ BiH: Dragan Čović, Niko Lozančić, Mato Franjičević
  • SBiH: Beriz Belkić, Azra Hadžiahmetović
  • Croatian coalition HDZ 1990-HSP BiH: Božo Ljubić, Zvonko Jurišić
  • NSRzB: Mladen Ivanković Lijanović
  • DNZ: Nermin Purić
  • PDP: Vesna Krstović
  • DNS: Petar Kunić

House of Peoples[edit]

The 15 members of the House of Peoples will be elected in entities' Parliaments - 10 members by the House of Representatives of the Parliament of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (5 Bosniaks and 5 Croats); and 5 members by the National Assembly of the Republika Srpska.

Entity Parliaments[edit]

On the entity level, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republika Srpska will elect new governments.

Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina[edit]

In the Federation this includes:

House of Representatives[edit]

Final Results of the 2010 general election; only parties which have won mandates are listed:

e • d Summary of the 3 October 2010 Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election results
Party Votes % Direct
mandates
Compensated
mandates
Total +/-
Social Democratic Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina (SDP BiH) 251,053 24.53 20 8 28 +11
Party of Democratic Action (SDA) 206,926 20.22 17 6 23 -5
Union for a Better Future of BiH (SBB BiH) 121,697 11.89 11 2 13 +13
Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZ BiH) 108,943 10.64 10 2 12 +4
Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina 78,086 7.63 8 1 9 -15
People's Party Work for Betterment 48,286 4.72 0 5 5 +2
Croatian Democratic Union 1990
Croatian Party of Rights
47,941 4.68 4 1 5 -3
Valid votes 1,023,529
Invalid votes 74,542
Total (turnout %)
Source: Izbori.ba

Republika Srpska[edit]

In the Republika Srpska, the government is made up of:

Presidential Election[edit]

The election for President and Vice-Presidents is held concurrently. The candidate with the most votes is elected to the presidency, while the Bosniak and Croat with the largest number of votes are elected to the vice-presidency.

e • d Summary of the 3 October 2010 Republika Srpska presidential election results
Candidate Party Votes %
Milorad Dodik SNSD - Alliance of Independent Social Democrats 319,615 50.52
Ognjen Tadić Coalition Together for Srpska 227,239 35.92
Enes Suljkanović
(Bosniak)
Social Democratic Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina (SDP BiH) 15,419 2.44
Ševket Hafizović
(Bosniak)
Party of Democratic Action (SDA) 14,836 2.35
Muharem Murselović
(Bosniak)
Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina 14,154 2.24
Dragan Đurđević Serbian Radical Party of the Republika Srpska 8,178 1.29
Emil Vlajki
(Croat)
People's Democratic Party 6,101 0.96
Sadmir Nukić (Bosniak) Union for a Better Future of BiH 5,558 0.88
Ivan Krndelj (Croat) HSS - NHI 5,487 0.87
Ivo Kamenjašević
(Croat)
Croatian Democratic Union 4,128 0.65
Valid votes
Invalid votes
Total (turnout %)
Source: Izbori.ba
National Assembly[edit]

Canton Parliaments[edit]

All 289 seats in the assemblies of the cantons of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina were up for election (Bosnian: skupština kantona, Croatian: sabor županije, Serbian: скупштина кантона).

Party Coat of arms of Una-Sana Canton.gif
USK
% Coat of arms of Posavina.svg
ŽP
% Coat of arms of Tuzla Canton.svg
TK
% Coat of arms of Zenica-Doboj Canton.gif
ZDK
% Coat of arms of Bosnian Podrinje Canton.PNG
BPK
% Central Bosnia Canton Grb.gif
SBK
ŽSB
% Coat of arms of Herzegovina-Neretva Canton.gif
HNK
ŽHN
% No coats of arms.svg
ZHŽ
% Sarajevo Canton CoA.png
KS
% No coats of arms.svg
K10
% Total
  Party of Democratic Action (SDA) 21,104 23.38 1,602 10,29 45,058 24,68 35,144 25.00 2,509 22.90 16,285 17.33 9,927 14.85 0 0 31,459 17.82 1,130 4.72 164,218
  Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina (Za BiH) 7,280 8.07 452 2.92 14,995 8.21 12,055 8.57 1628 14.86 6,621 7.05 2,634 3.94 0 0 18,213 10.32 213 0.89 64,091
  Social Democratic Party (SDP) 20,902 23.16 816 5.24 56,188 30.77 35,724 25.41 2,682 24.48 16,764 17.84 9,005 13.47 252 0.74 42,692 24.19 990 4.13 186,015
  Party of Democratic Activities (A-sda) 11,019 12.21 0 0 4,303 2.36 1,822 1.30 201 1.83 555 0.59 60 0.09 0 0 1,726 0.98 0 0 19,686
  Union for a Better Future of BiH (SBB BiH) 6,438 7.13 512 3.29 19,088 10.45 18,110 12.88 1,383 12.62 12,207 12.99 4,953 7.41 0 0 30,619 17.35 304 1.27 93,614
  Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZ BiH) 591 0.65 6,413 41.19 5,627 3.08 7,330 5.21 0 0 20,417 21.73 22,623 33.83 17,526 51.65 1,846 1.05 6,247 26.09 88,620
  Liberal Democratic Party (Bosnia and Herzegovina) (LDS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 369 0.26 33 0.30 157 0.17 63 0.09 0 0 1,536 0.87 0 0 2,518
  Croatian Democratic Union 1990 (HDZ 1990) 527 0.58 3425 22.00 303 0.17 2,181 1.55 0 0 6,633 7.06 8,324 12.45 5,211 15.36 578 0.33 3,080 12.86 30,262
  Croatian Party of Right (HSP BiH) 7 0.01 454 2.92 * * * * 0 0 * * 3,235 4.84 4,358 12.84 * * 2,284 9.54 10,338*
  Croatian Peasant Party – New Croatian Initiative (HSS - NHI) 0 0 606 3.89 135 0.07 503 0.36 0 0 2,914 3.10 0 0 0 0 243 0.14 1,217 5.08 5,618
  People's Party Work for Betterment 4837 5.36 336 2.16 8,980 4.92 9,059 6.44 1,085 9.90 5,710 6.08 2,262 3.38 3,883 11.44 5,549 3.14 2,264 9.46 43,965
  Democratic People's Alliance (DNS) 90 0.10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 65 0.07 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,205 5.03 1,360
  Bosnian-Herzegovinian Patriotic Party-Sefer Halilović (BPS) 857 0.95 0 0 6,764 3.70 4,825 3.43 705 6.44 1,508 1.60 1,148 1.72 0 0 8,509 4.82 0 0 24,316
  Democratic People's Community 11,844 13.12 0 0 0 0 250 0.18 0 0 0 0 5 0.01 7 0.02 196 0.11 32 0.13 12,334
  Pensioners' Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina 655 0.73 60 0.39 1,674 0.92 2,912 2.07 145 1.32 924 0.98 524 0.78 458 1.35 3,095 1.75 0 0 10,447
  Our Party (NS) 980 1.09 35 0.22 2,500 1.37 1,493 1.06 69 0.63 788 0.84 179 0.27 0 0 8,385 4.75 74 0.31 14,503
  Bosnian Party (BOSS) 314 0.35 46 0.30 4,429 2.43 1,968 1.40 255 2.33 1,199 1.28 200 0.30 0 0 6,247 3.54 0 0 14,658
  Social Democratic Union (SDU BiH) 889 0.98 0 0 4,501 2.47 164 0.12 0 0 362 0.39 0 0 0 0 6,019 3.41 89 0.37 12,024
  Union of Independent Social Democrats 1,012 1.12 0 0 450 0.25 310 0.22 130 1.19 166 0.18 794 1.19 0 0 1,641 0.93 3,089 12.90 7,592
  Others 914 1.01 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Source - Central Electoral Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Party Coat of arms of Una-Sana Canton.gif
USK
Coat of arms of Posavina.svg
ŽP
Coat of arms of Tuzla Canton.svg
TK
Coat of arms of Zenica-Doboj Canton.gif
ZDK
Coat of arms of Bosnian Podrinje Canton.PNG
BPK
Central Bosnia Canton Grb.gif
SBK
ŽSB
Coat of arms of Herzegovina-Neretva Canton.gif
HNK
ŽHN
No coats of arms.svg
ZHŽ
Sarajevo Canton CoA.png
KS
No coats of arms.svg
K10
Total +/-
  Party of Democratic Action (SDA) 7 2 10 10 6 6 5 - 7 2 55 -19
  Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina (Za BiH) 3 1 3 4 4 2 2 - 4 - 23 -36
  Social Democratic Party (SDP) 8 1 13 10 7 6 5 - 10 1 61 +18
  Union for a Better Future of BiH (SBB BiH) 2 1 4 5 3 4 3 - 7 - 29 -
  Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZ/HNZ/HSP) - 8 1 2 - 7 10 13 - 7 48 +12
  Croatian Democratic Union 1990 (HDZ1990) - 5 - - - 2 3 4 - 4 18 -11
  Croatian Party of Right/New Croatian Initiative - 2 - - - 1 1 3 - 4 11 -3
  People's Party Work for Betterment 2 - 2 3 3 2 1 3 1 3 20 +10
  Bosnian-Herzegovinian Patriotic Party-Sefer Halilović (BPS) - - 2 1 2 - - - 2 - 7 -1
  Democratic People's Community 4 - - - - - - - - - 4 -2
  Bosnian Party/Social Democratic Union (BOSS/SDU) - - - - - - - - 2 - 2 -3
  Union of Independent Social Democrats - - - - - - - - - 3 3 -2
  Stranka Demokratske Aktivnosti A-SDA 4 - - - - - - - - - 4 ?
  Posavska Stranka - 1 - - - - - - - - 1 ?
  Our Party - - - - - - - - 2 - 2 ?
  Democratic People's Alliance - - - - - - - - - 1 1 ?
  Total 30 21 35 35 25 30 30 23 35 25    

Reaction[edit]

Štefan Füle, European commissioner for enlargement and neighbourhood policy, urged Bosnian politicians to speed up the establishment of State and Entity governments using the EU agenda as a negotiation base for coalition building. Füle underlined the need for constitutional amendments to ensure compliance with the European Convention on Human Rights and improve governance, for a new Census Law to provide reliable statistical data, and for the establishment of an independent state aid authority.[19]

The US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Bosnia and Herzegovina a week after the elections in an effort to push for political reforms to fully integration the entry into both the European Union and NATO. She also called for unity and criticised threats of secession of Srpska made by Milorad Dodik.[20] A US diplomat in Europe said he thought the reforms are necessary and that "the Bosnians need to follow up. The rest of the region is moving towards Europe, and Bosnia is going to have to overcome these ethnic divisions [...] if they want to go down this path."[21]

In the international media, the election was read as seeing the country "still mired in political deadlock and ethnic rivalry," because of a continued political stalemate that leaves the unique tripartite presidency split over the future of the country. This also meant a likelihood of a delayed economic recovery and the accession of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the European Union.[22]

Analysis[edit]

Komšić's 2010 election results by municipality expressed as a percentage of total valid votes for each municipality. Note that the Bosniak and Croat members of the Presidency are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina entity, while the Serb member is elected from the Republika Srpska entity (greyed out on the map).

Many officials of the Croatian Democratic Union party have claimed that the re-election of Željko Komšić (SDP) as the Croat member of the presidency was due to Bosniaks choosing to vote on the Croat list.[23][24][25] Bulk of the votes Komšić received came from predominantly Bosniak areas and he fared quite poorly in Croat municipalities, supported by less than 2,5% of the electorate in a number of municipalities in Western Herzegovina, such as Široki Brijeg, Ljubuški (0,8%), Čitluk, Posušje and Tomislavgrad, while not being able to gain not even 10% in a number of others.[26] Furthermore, total Croat population in whole of Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina is estimated around 495,000;[27] Komšić received 336,961 votes alone, while all other Croat candidates won 230,000 votes altogether. Croats of Bosnia and Herzegovina consider him to be an illegitimate representative and generally treat him as a second Bosniak member of the presidency.[16][28][29][30] This raised frustration among Croats, undermined their trust in federal institutions and empowered claims for their own entity or a federal unit, while opening so-called "Croatian question".[15]

The Social Democratic Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina of Zlatko Lagumdzija appeared to be the biggest winner of the election, while the Party of Democratic Action contained their expected losses, while the Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina of Haris Silajdzic lost ground. The Party of Independent Social Democrats of Milorad Dodik strengthened its presence in both Republika Srpska and at state level. None of the newly established parties, with the exception of Fahrudin Radončić's Union for a Better Future of BiH were able to pass the threshold and gain seats in either of the parliamentary bodies.[19] Two blocs can therefore be noticed at state level: the Party of Independent Social Democrats|SNSD and Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina on one side and the Social Democratic Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Party of Democratic Action on the other. The negotiations to form a new government at both Federation and State level are expected to take some time.[19]

In Republika Srpska Dodik secured a stable majority, and his election as Entity President will likely signal a trend of presidentialisation of Srpska's political system, in line with what happened in Serbia after Tadic's presidential election.[19][clarification needed]

Government formation[edit]

At the federal level, the formation of government is currently ongoing. There are two major coalitions which have been formed since the election: Social Democratic Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Party of Democratic Action, Croatian Party of Rights and People's Party Work for Betterment; and a looser grouping of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, Serbian Democratic Party, Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Croatian Democratic Union-1990.[citation needed] Neither group has a parliamentary majority, nor do they have full representation from the three constitutional peoples.[original research?]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "BiH to hold general elections on October 3rd". SETimes. 6 May 2010. 
  2. ^ a b c d "INTERIM REPORT No.1 26 August – 13 September 2010". OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights. 21 September 2010. 
  3. ^ a b "2010 GENERAL ELECTIONS". Central Electoral Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina. 
  4. ^ a b "Bosnians vote in crucial elections". Al Jazeera. 3 October 2010. 
  5. ^ a b c "News Analysis: Few surprises expected in Bosnian general elections". Xinhua. 3 October 2010. 
  6. ^ "RS: ICJ decision and secession". B92. 25 July 2010. 
  7. ^ "Nationalism High, Hopes Low In Bosnia Election". Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. 1 October 2010. 
  8. ^ a b Arslanagic, Sabina (30 September 2010). "Serbian President Publicly Backs Dodik Campaign". Balkan Insight. 
  9. ^ "Tadic supports SNSD candidates ahead of elections in BiH". Tanjug. 30 September 2010. 
  10. ^ Cerkez, Aida (3 October 2010). "Preliminary results show Bosnians divided on vote". Associated Press. 
  11. ^ a b c d "Polls close in Bosnia election". Al Jazeera. 3 October 2010. 
  12. ^ a b c Tomić, Zoran (2010). Izborna kampanja u BiH: kako dobiti nešto za ništa. 
  13. ^ a b c d "Public Opinion Poll Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) August 2010". National Democratic Institute. Retrieved 27 August 2010. 
  14. ^ a b c "Bosnia: Ballot Recount Could Change Race for Top Post". Balkan Insight. 21 October 2010. 
  15. ^ a b Luka Oreskovic: "Doing Away with Et Cetera", Foreign Policy. OCTOBER 30, 2013
  16. ^ a b International Crisis Group: Bosnia’s Future Europe, Report N°232, 10 July 2014
  17. ^ a b "BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA GENERAL ELECTIONS 3 October 2010". Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights. 27 July 2010. 
  18. ^ Bosnia and Herzegovina General Elections 3 October 2010, OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission Final Report, 17 December 2010, accessed 3 October 2012 (pdf file).
  19. ^ a b c d EU Observer, 6 December 2010
  20. ^ "Troubleshooting in the western Balkans: Outsiders needed". The Economist. 14 October 2010. 
  21. ^ "Clinton calls for reforms in Bosnia". Al Jazeera. 12 October 2010. 
  22. ^ Shaikh, Thair (7 October 2010). "Bosnia and Herzegovina still divided 15 years after war". CNN. 
  23. ^ "Prvi službeni rezultati BiH izbora: u Predsjedništvu Izetbegović, Radmanović i Komšić". Slobodna Dalmacija. 3 October 2010. 
  24. ^ "Bosnia Polls Results: Bosniaks Vote for Change". Balkan Insight. 4 October 2010. 
  25. ^ "Nadmoć SNSD u RS, težak poraz Silajdžića". Blic. 5 October 2010. 
  26. ^ Central Electorate Commission, results in municipalities, 2010
  27. ^ U BiH ima 48,4 posto Bošnjaka, 32,7 posto Srba i 14, 6 posto Hrvata (Article on the preliminary report of 2013 census)
  28. ^ Vogel, T. K. (9 October 2006). "Bosnia: From the Killing Fields to the Ballot Box". The Globalist. Retrieved 30 July 2012. 
  29. ^ Pavić, Snježana (8 October 2010). "Nije točno da Hrvati nisu glasali za Željka Komšića, u Grudama je dobio 124 glasa". Jutarnji list (in Croatian). Retrieved 6 April 2013. 
  30. ^ "Reforma Federacije uvod je u reformu izbornog procesa" (in Croatian). Dnevno. 13 May 2013. Retrieved 13 May 2013. 

External links[edit]