Economic collapse

There is no precise definition of an economic collapse. The term has been used to describe a broad range of bad economic conditions from a severe, prolonged depression with high bankruptcy rates and high unemployment, such as the Great Depression, to a breakdown in normal commerce caused by hyperinflation (such as in Weimar Germany), or even an economically caused sharp increase in the death rate and perhaps even a decline in population (Former USSR).

Often economic collapse is accompanied by social chaos, civil unrest and sometimes a breakdown of law and order.

Cases of economic collapse

There are few well documented cases of economic collapse. One of the best documented cases of collapse or near collapse is the Great Depression, the causes of which are still being debated.

"To understand the Great Depression is the Holy Grail of Economics"Ben Bernanke (1995)

Bernanke's comment addresses the difficulty of identifying specific causes when many factors may each have contributed to various extents.

Past economic collapses have had political as well as financial causes. Persistent trade deficits, wars, revolutions, famines and depletion of important resources have been listed as causes. Incompetent governments are another cause, especially when they go bankrupt and resort to money printing, causing hyperinflation.

In some cases blockades and embargoes caused severe hardships that could be considered economic collapse. In the U. S. the Embargo Act of 1807 forbid foreign trade with warring European nations, causing a severe depression in the heavily international trade dependent economy, especially in the shipping industry and port cities, ending a great boom. The Union blockade of the Confederate States of America severely damaged the South's plantation owners; however, the South had little economic development. The Blockade of Germany during WWI lead to starvation of hundreds of thousands of Germans but did not cause economic collapse, at least until the political turmoil and the hyperinflation that followed. For both the Confederacy and Weimar Germany, the cost of the war was worse than the blockade. Many Southern plantaion owners had their bank accounts confiscated and also all had to free their slaves without compensation. The Germans had to make war reparations.

Following defeat in war the conquering country or faction may not accept paper currency of the vanquished, and the paper becomes worthless. (This was the situation of the Confederacy.) Government debt obligations, primarily bonds, are often restructured and sometimes become worthless. Therefore there is a tendency for the public to hold gold and silver during times of war or crisis. Historically this was as coins, foreign or domestic, by the general public. Jewelry was also used as a medium of exchange.

Economic collapse requires some sort of developed economy to begin with. Rural, agrarian economies that operate at subsistence level that are affected by famines and plagues are not normally considered a form of economic collapse.

There is a difference between rather sudden economic collapse and long term economic decline, such as the Roman Empire or the societal collapse of past civilizations.

Effects of war and hyperinflation on wealth and commerce

Main article: Hyperinflation

Hyperinflation, wars and revolutions cause hording of essentials and a disruption of markets. In some past hyperinflations, workers were paid daily and immediately spent their earnings on essential goods, which they often used for barter. Store shelves were frequently empty.

More stable foreign currencies, silver and gold (usually coins) were held and exchanged in place of local currency. The minting country of precious metal coins tended to be relatively unimportant. Jewelry was also used as a medium of exchange. Alcoholic beverages were also used for barter.

Desperate individuals sold valuable possessions to buy essentials or traded them for gold and silver.

In hyperinflations stocks typically hold much more of their value than paper currency.^{[citation needed]} Bonds denominated in the inflating currency may lose most or all value.

Bank holidays, conversion or confiscation of accounts and new currency

A 1000 Mark banknote, over-stamped in red with "Eine Milliarde Mark" long scale (1,000,000,000 mark), issued in Germany during the hyperinflation of 1923

During severe financial crises sometimes governments close banks, normally to save the banks and not necessarily the depositors. Depositors remain unable to withdraw their money, sometimes for long periods, as was true in the United States in 1933 under the Emergency Banking Act. Withdrawals may be limited. Bank deposits may be involuntarily converted to government bonds or to a new currency of lesser value in foreign exchange. Sometimes funds are confiscated. In the U.S. gold was confiscated under Executive Order 6102 and compensated at $20.67 per ounce. Gold was later revalued to $35 per ounce; however, the main negative effect was felt by foreign holders of dollar denominated investments and some of those involved in international trade.

Confiscation of private pensions, such as 401k accounts and Individual retirement account ("IRA") accounts, already has been proposed or instituted as a solution to pension problems but many fear the money could be used for other government expenses.

During financial crises and even less severe situations, capital controls are often imposed to restrict or prohibit transferring or personally taking money, securities or other valuables out of a country. To end hyperinflations a new currency is typically issued. The old currency is often not worth exchanging for new.

Sweeping up the banknotes from the street after the Hungarian pengő was replaced in 1946

During the financial panic of 2008 the US Government halted a bank run on money market funds (MMFs) by extending government insurance. Recently however, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Mary L. Shapiro warned that money market fund investors "have been given a false sense of security." In the event of another run Shapiro said the SEC was considering imposing fees or limits on withdrawals. The SEC also wants to require MMFs to maintain capital reserves.

Historical examples

China 1852–70

The Taiping Rebellion followed by internal warfare, famines and epidemics caused the deaths of over 100 million and greatly reduced the economy.

Weimar Germany

Main article: Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic

Following Germany's defeat in World War I, political instability resulted in murders and assassinations of hundreds of political figures. (See: German Revolution of 1918–1919 and Kapp Putsch) Germany's finances were heavily strained by the war and reparations in accordance with the Treaty of Versailles. Unable to raise enough in taxes to run the government and make war reparations, the government resorted to printing money which resulted in the great hyperinflation. One book on the hyperinflation, which includes quotes and a few first hand accounts, is When Money Dies. The hyperinflation eventually ended, but destroyed the wealth of most of her citizens and created a political environment favorable to the Nazi party and the rise of Hitler to power.

The Great Depression of the 1930s

Main article: Great Depression

While agruably not a true economic collapse, the decade of the 1930s witnessed the most severe world wide economic contraction since the start of the Industrial Revolution. In the US, the Depression began in the summer of 1929, soon followed by the stock market crash of October 1929. American stock prices continued to decline in fits and starts until they hit bottom in July 1932. In the first quarter of 1933, the banking system broke down: asset prices had collapsed, bank lending had largely ceased, a quarter of the American work force was unemployed, and real GDP per capita in 1933 was 29% below its 1929 value. The ensuing rapid recovery was interrupted by a major recession in 1937-38. The USA fully recovered by 1941, the eve of its entry in World War II, which gave rise to a boom as dramatic as the Depression that preceded it.

While there were numerous bank failures during the Great Depression, most banks in developed countries survived, as did most currencies and governments. The most significant monetary change during the depression was the demise of the gold standard by most nations that were on it. In the U.S., the dollar was redeemable in gold until 1933 when U.S. citizens were forced to turn over their gold (except for 5 ounces) for fiat currency (See: Executive Order 6102) and were forbidden to own monetary gold for the next four decades. Subsequently gold was revalued from $20.67 per ounce to $35 per ounce. U.S. dollars remained redeemable in gold by foreigners until 1971. Gold ownership was legalized in the U.S. in 1974, but not with legal tender status.

As bad as the Great Depression was, it took place during a period of high productivity growth, which caused real wages to rise. The high unemployment was partly a result of the productivity gains, allowing the number of hours of the standard work week to be cut while restoring economic output to previous levels after a few years. Workers who remained employed saw their real hourly earnings rise because wages remained constant while prices fell; however, overall earnings remained relatively constant bacause of the reduced work week. Converting the dollar to a fiat currency and devaluing against gold ensured the end of deflation and created inflation, which made the high debt accumulated during the 1920s boom easier to repay, although some of the debt was written off.

Economic collapse of Soviet Communism

During the 1980s, the Eastern Bloc, which relied on a stagnant form of plan economy, experienced a decade-long period of stagflation, and eventual collapse from which it did not recover, culminating with revolutions and the fall of communist regimes throughout Central and Eastern Europe and eventually in the Soviet Union. The process was accompanied by a gradual but important easing of restrictions on economic and political behaviour in the late 1980s, including in the satellite states.

The collapse in the USSR was characterized by an increase in the death rate, especially by men over 50, with alcoholism a major cause. There was also an increase in violent crime and murder. The Russian population peaked in the 1990s and is lower today than two decades ago. See: Demographics of Russia

A first hand account of conditions during the economic collapse was told by Dmitry Orlov, a former USSR citizen who became a U.S. citizen, but returned to Russia for a time during the crisis.

Russian financial crisis of 1998

Main article: 1998 Russian financial crisis

After more or less stabilizing after the disintegration of the USSR, a severe financial crisis took place in the Russian Federation in August 1998. It was caused by low oil prices and government expenditure cuts after the end of the Cold War. Other nations of the former Soviet Union also experienced economic collapse, although a number of crises also involved armed conflicts, like in the break-away region Chechnya. The default by Russia on its government bonds in 1998 led to the collapse of highly leveraged hedge fund Long Term Capital Management, which threatened the world financial system. The U.S. Federal Reserve organized a bailout of LTCM which turned it over to a banking consortium.

Argentine economic crisis (1999–2002)

Main article: Argentine economic crisis (1999–2002)

Video documentary Argentine economic crisis

Present economic trends

In Latvia, the GDP has declined more than 20% since 2008, one of the worst recessions on record.

Theories of economic collapse

Neo-classical economic theory does not offer a theory of economic collapse. Rather, the insights it offers concerning economic collapse are that they result from exogenous shocks, mismanagement of monetary policy or failures of regulation and supervision of lending practices. Other schools of economic thought, however, offer fundamental theories of such economic phenomena.

Austrian school

Some economists (i.e. the Austrian School, in particular Ludwig von Mises), believe that government intervention and over-regulation of the economy can lead to the conditions for collapse. In particular, Austrian theoretical research has been focused on such problems emanating from socialist forms of economic organization. This however is not a theory of economic collapse involving the breakdown of freely functioning financial markets. Rather the focus is on economic malfunction and crisis emanating from state control.

Georgist explanation

In "The Science of Political Economy", published in 1905, Henry George argued that because land is a scarce resource, it is particularly subject to speculation; and many financial crises in the USA in the 19th century were caused by bank lending practices linked to asset bubbles in the market for land. George suggested that speculative bubbles burst when the banks run out of money and can no longer lend for such speculative investments; bank insolvencies would follow as the asset price drops and speculators are unable to repay loans. This is not a theory of economic collapse proper but a hypothesis of shortcomings in bank lending as a cause of financial crisis and economic collapse.

Economic disaster

An economic disaster is a widespread disruption or collapse of a national or regional economy, due to natural causes, such as hurricanes, volcanic eruptions or droughts, resulting in famine or plagues. Some of these occurrences are short-lived, while others may last for years. Economic disasters are different from economic collapses due to human agency or economic forces, such as imbalances in the stock market or mistakes in the conduct of monetary policy.

See also

• Currency crisis
• Dependency ratio
• Devaluation
• Economic bubble
• Hindenburg Omen
• Homelessness
• Pensions crisis
• Rare disasters
• Societal collapse
• Stock market crash
• Survivalism

Examples:

• Great Famine (Ireland)
• Panic of 1837
• Panic of 1873
• Panic of 1893
• Panic of 1907
• 1997 Asian financial crisis
• Soviet famine of 1932–1933
• Bengal famine of 1943
• Late 2000s recession
• List of stock market crashes

External links

• Some aspects of state national economy evolution in the system of the international economic order.
• The Long Emergency Plan