United States Senate election in Alaska, 2010

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United States Senate election in Alaska, 2010
Alaska
2004 ←
November 2, 2010 → 2016

  Lisa Murkowski.jpg Joe Miller of Alaska cropped.jpg Scott McAdams cropped.jpg
Candidate Lisa Murkowski (Write-in) Joe Miller Scott McAdams
Party Republican Republican Democratic
Popular vote 102,252 90,740 60,007
Percentage 39.0% 35.5% 23.5%

U.S. Senator before election

Lisa Murkowski
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Lisa Murkowski
Republican

The 2010 United States Senate election in Alaska took place on November 2, 2010, alongside 33 other U.S. Senate elections in other states, as well as elections in all states for Representatives to the U.S. House, and various state and local offices.

The November general election in Alaska was preceded by primary elections which were held on August 24, 2010. Scott McAdams, the Mayor of Sitka, became the Democratic Party nominee for U.S. Senate[1] after winning the largest number of votes of any Democrat in the open primary (any registered Alaska voter can vote this ballot, regardless of party registration).[2] Joe Miller, an attorney and former federal magistrate, became the Republican nominee after defeating incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski[1] in the closed Republican primary, (voters must be registered as Republicans, Nonpartisan, or Undeclared, in order to vote for Republican candidates).[2] Miller was endorsed by the Tea Party movement and former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.[3] Murkowski announced that regardless of her defeat in the primary, she would run in the general election as a write-in candidate.[4][5]

Murkowski garnered more than 100,000 write-in votes in the general election, 8,000 of which were challenged by Miller for various errors including minor misspellings.[6] Even if the challenged votes were all thrown out, Murkowski still had a lead of over 2,100 votes when the counting was done.[7] The Associated Press and the Alaska GOP called the race in Murkowski's favor on November 17, and Murkowski proclaimed herself the winner on November 18.[6][8] Miller did not concede the race and instead filed legal challenges which stopped the Alaska Division of Elections from certifying Murkowski as the winner.[9] On December 10, the Alaska Superior Court in Juneau rejected Miller's State law claims, ruling that Alaska statutes and case law do not require perfect spelling on write-in ballots if voter intent is clear. The Superior Court judge also dismissed Miller's claims of vote fraud as based on speculation.[7][10] Miller took his appeal to the Alaska Supreme Court, citing a provision in the Alaska election statute that says there shall be "no exceptions" to the rules for counting ballots, and arguing that therefore, all ballots with misspellings or other deviations should be thrown out. The court heard oral arguments on December 17.[11] Miller also had a pending case in federal court[9] raising U.S. constitutional claims that the Elections and the Due Process Clauses were violated by State election authorities; the federal court could consider the claims once Miller's State court options are exhausted.[9][12]

On December 30, 2010, Alaska state officials certified the election of Lisa Murkowski as the winner of the Senatorial election, making her the first U.S. Senate candidate to win election via write-in since Strom Thurmond in 1954.[13] On December 31 Miller announced at a news conference in Anchorage that he was conceding.[14]

Primary systems[edit]

Alaska's primary elections consist of a closed primary ballot for voters that have declared themselves as Republicans and an open primary ballot for Democrats, Libertarians, the Alaska Independence Party, and all other declared or write-in candidates.

Open primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Results[edit]

Primary results (438 of 438 precincts reporting)[18][19]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Scott McAdams 18,035 49.99%
Democratic Jacob Seth Kern 6,913 19.16%
Libertarian David Haase 5,793 16.06%
Democratic Frank Vondersaar 5,339 14.80%
Totals 36,080 100%
Voter turnout 32%

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Lisa Murkowski[21]
Joe Miller[22]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Dates administered Lisa Murkowski Joe Miller
Moore Research July 25, 2010 62% 30%

Results[edit]

Republican primary results (438 of 438 precincts reporting)[18][19]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Joe Miller 55,878 50.91%
Republican Lisa Murkowski (incumbent) 53,872 49.09%
Totals 109,750 100%
Voter turnout 32%

Murkowski conceded the primary race to Joe Miller on August 31, 2010.

Aftermath[edit]

When it began to appear that Miller had won the primary, the Libertarian Party floated the possibility of offering Murkowski its nomination; the Murkowski campaign said it would not rule out a third party run, and Murkowski said it was too premature.[23] But on August 29, 2010, the executive board of the state Libertarian Party voted not to consider allowing Murkowski on its ticket for the U.S. Senate race.[24] When asked about a write-in candidacy at that time, she said it was "high risk".[24] By September 7 though, she said that she was weighing the option of mounting a write-in campaign.[25] On September 13 Libertarian candidate David Haase reiterated that he would not stand down and let Murkowski replace him on the ballot.[26] Murkowski announced on September 17 that she would enter the general election contest as a write-in candidate, saying she had agonized over the decision, but had been encouraged to run by many voters.[27]

General election[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Campaign[edit]

After Lisa Murkowski conceded the Republican primary to Joe Miller, Scott McAdams raised over $128,000 through ActBlue, and a private fundraiser at the home of Alaskan State Senator Hollis French raised about $19,000.

Miller received negative press in mid-October 2010 when his campaign's security guards made a private arrest of a journalist who was persistently questioning Miller about his record as a government employee. Tony Hopfinger, of the Alaska Dispatch was detained and handcuffed until Anchorage police arrived and released him following a townhall event featuring Miller. No charges were filed.[29] Though the campaign event was open to the general public and held at a public school, the security firm said it had detained the journalist because he had been trespassing and had shoved a man while attempting to question Miller.[29]

On October 20, during early voting, a voter in Homer photographed a list of write-in candidates that was posted inside a voting booth,[30] which raised the issue of whether the state should be posting, or even providing such a list. A lawsuit was filed alleging that the Alaska Division of Elections was violating AAC, 25.070, which reads in part: "Information regarding a write-in candidate may not be discussed, exhibited or provided at the polling place, or within 200 feet of any entrance to the polling place, on election day."[31] Both Republican and Democratic spokespersons decried the lists as electioneering on behalf of Murkowski; representatives of the Division of Elections maintained that the lists were intended merely to assist voters.[32] On October 27 a judge issued a restraining order barring the lists, noting in his decision "If it were important 'assistance' for the Division to provide voters with lists of write-in candidates, then the Division has been asleep at the switch for the past 50 years, the Division first developed the need for a write-in candidate list 12 days ago."[33] Later on the same day, the Alaska Supreme Court ruled that the lists could be distributed to those who asked for them, but that any ballots cast by voters based on information on the lists be "segregated". The Division of Elections responded that they had neither the manpower nor the time to implement such a system by Election Day. By the deadline for registering as a write-in candidate, more than 150 Alaskans had submitted their names as candidates for the U.S. Senate seat, encouraged by an Anchorage talk radio host.[34][35]

In the election, the total number of write-in votes statewide were counted first, then all the write-in ballots were sent to Juneau to the Division of Elections to be individually examined to see the what names were written on them.[34]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
RealClearPolitics Likely R[36] October 30, 2010
Rasmussen Reports Leans R[37] September 1, 2010
Cook Political Report Likely R[38] October 24, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely R[39] October 21, 2010
CQ Politics Likely R[40] October 24, 2010
Rothenberg Safe R[41] October 22, 2010
Electoral-vote.com Strong I[42] October 30, 2010
New York Times Leaning R[43] October 24, 2010

Polling[edit]

Poll source Dates administered Joe Miller (R) Lisa Murkowski (R)
write-in candidate *
Scott McAdams (D)
Public Policy Polling October 30–31, 2010 37% 30% 30%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research October 15–19, 2010 37% 37% 23%
Public Policy Polling October 9–10, 2010 35% 33% 26%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research September 24–28, 2010 38% 36% 22%
Moore Research September 23–27, 2010 43% 18% 28%
Rasmussen Reports September 19, 2010 42% 27% 25%

*Lisa Murkowski lost Republican nomination and runs as a Republican during her write-in bid.

Fundraising[edit]

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Joe Miller (R) $1,980,296 $1,331,859 $647,934 $341
Scott McAdams (D) $861,121 $587,639 $273,480 $0
Lisa Murkowski (R-Write-in) $3,416,929 $3,005,107 $773,826 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[45]

Results[edit]

Results before hand count of ballots marked for write in-candidates (438 of 438 precincts reporting, 100%)[46]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Lisa Murkowski (Write-in) 102,252 40.0%
Republican Joe Miller 90,740 35.5%
Democratic Scott McAdams 60,007 23.5%
Libertarian David Haase 1,454 0.6%
Independent Timothy Carter 922 0.4%
Independent Ted Gianoutsos 456 0.2%
Totals 255,831 100.0%
Voter turnout 51.7%

Post-election day events[edit]

Overview[edit]

On election day, the write-in ballots were counted, but not examined: determining for which candidate they were cast was deferred. After election officials tabulated 27,000 additional absentee and early ballots, Miller had won 35 percent of the vote while forty percent of the ballots cast were write-ins,[47] which required a hand count to see what names were on them.[48]

Write-in count[edit]

Alaska election officials said they were counting write-in ballots with misspellings if the names written in were phonetic to Murkowski, claiming that Alaska case law supports this practice.[49] The Miller campaign had observers present who challenged ballots which misspelled "Murkowski", or which included the word "Republican" next to Murkowski's name. The Anchorage Daily News noted on November 11 that the bulk of the challenged ballots contained misspellings but examples were not hard to find of challenged ballots that appeared to be "spelled accurately and looked to be filled out properly".[50]

After several days of counting, the Division of Elections showed Murkowski with a lead of some 1,700 votes over Miller, with about 8,000 write-in votes yet to be counted, and a trend of counting 97 percent of the write-ins as for Murkowski.[51] Murkowski's campaign shied away from declaring a victory before the count was finished.[51] As of November 17, (the last day of the hand count), the Division of Elections showed Murkowski having a lead of over 10,000 votes, meaning that even if all the 8,000 challenged ballots were discounted, Murkowski would still lead by about 2,200 votes. The Miller campaign then demanded a hand recount of the entire election, claiming that as Murkowski's votes were all verified by visual inspection Miller should get the same opportunity. The Division of Election officials responded that any recount of non-write-in votes would not be done by hand, but would be done using optical scanners.[52]

Lawsuits[edit]

For more details, see Miller v. Campbell.

Miller filed a federal lawsuit on November 9, 2010, seeking to have write-in ballots that contained spelling and other errors from being counted toward Murkowski's total and a seeking preliminary injunction to prevent the counting of the write-in votes from even beginning.[53] He claimed that he had a federal case because State election officials were violating the Elections Clause of the U.S. Constitution and the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment by using a voter intent standard that allowed misspelled write-in votes to count.[54] The federal court allowed the counting to proceed as the challenged ballots were segregated from the others and could be re-examined later, if necessary.[53] After hearing motions and arguments from both sides, the federal court abstained from hearing the case, ruling that the dispute could be resolved by the State courts by reference to State law.[54] The federal court kept the case in its docket in the event that federal issues still remained after the State courts' determination.[54] The federal court also put a halt to the certification of the election pending rulings on Miller's lawsuits. Miller then filed suit in State court, repeating the claims he had previously made, and adding allegations of vote fraud and bias.[55] On December 10, the Alaska Superior Court rejected all of Miller's claims as contrary to State statute and case law, and said the fraud claims were unsubstantiated.[7][10] Miller has appealed the Superior Court ruling to the Alaska Supreme Court, citing a provision in the Alaska election statute that says there shall be "no exceptions" to the rules for counting ballots, and that therefore, all ballots with misspellings or other deviations should be thrown out. The court was expected to hear oral arguments on December 17.[11] On December 22, the Alaska Supreme Court upheld a lower courts ruling dismissing Miller's claims.[56][57] On December 26, Miller announced that he would be withdrawing his opposition for Murkowski's senate certification, but would continue pursuing the federal case.[58] On December 31 Miller announced at a news conference in Anchorage that he was conceding.[14]

Write in results[edit]

Write In Totals (100% Precincts reporting)[59]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Lisa Murkowski (Unchallenged) 92,929 89.52%
Lisa Murkowski (Challenged counted) 8,159 7.86%
Lisa Murkowski (Challenged not counted) 2,016 1.94%
Misc. Names 620 0.60%
Joe Miller 20 0.02%
Sid Hill 13 0.01%
Scott McAdams 8 0.01%
Lisa M. Lackey 2 0.00%
All other write-in candidates 40 0.04%
Totals 103,805 100.00%

Certified results[edit]

Final/certified general election results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Lisa Murkowski (Incumbent) (Write-In) 101,091 39.06%
Republican Joe Miller 90,839 35.11%
Democratic Scott McAdams 60,045 23.21%
Libertarian David Haase 1,459 00.56%
Independent Timothy Carter 927 00.36%
Independent Ted Gianoutsos 458 00.18%
Write-in Other write-in votes 1,143 00.44%
Invalid or blank votes 2,784 1.07%
Totals 258,746 100.0%
Voter turnout 52.3%

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b Sean Cockerham (August 31, 2010). "It's another Tea Party win as Alaska's Murkowski concedes". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved September 1, 2010. 
  2. ^ a b "Primary Election Information". State of Alaska, Division of Elections. Retrieved December 13, 2010. 
  3. ^ Cockerham, Sean (April 7, 2009). "Palin to back Murkowski in 2010". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved May 28, 2010. 
  4. ^ Bohrer, Becky (September 18, 2010). "Murkowski mounting write-in bid for Alaska Senate". Associated Press. Retrieved November 1, 2010. "Murkowski faces tough odds with her write-in candidacy. She has lost support from members within the Republican establishment, who are backing the Republican nominee, Joe Miller." 
  5. ^ McCormick, John (September 18, 2010). "Murkowski Says She Will Run as Write-In Candidate in Senate Race in Alaska". Bloomberg. Retrieved October 23, 2010. 
  6. ^ a b Seattle Times news services (November 17, 2010). "Murkowski triumphs in Alaska Senate race: Alaska's Murkowski appears to be first write-in candidate to win Senate since 1954". The Seattle Times. Retrieved November 18, 2010. 
  7. ^ a b c Sean Cockerham (December 10, 2010). "Judge rules against Miller in Senate suit". Anchorage Daily News. 
  8. ^ AP staff reporter (November 17, 2010). "AP: Murkowski Wins Alaska Senate Race". NPR. Associated Press. 
  9. ^ a b c "Federal Judge Halts Certification of Alaska Senate Election". Fox News. Associated Press. November 19, 2010. 
  10. ^ a b Pat Forgey (December 10, 2010). "Court rejects Miller's election challenge". Juneau Empire. 
  11. ^ a b David Catanese (December 13, 2010). "Miller appeals to Supreme Court". Politico. 
  12. ^ Richard L. Hasen (November 11, 2010). "Alaska's Big Spelling Test: How strong is Joe Miller's argument against the Leeza Markovsky vote?". Slate. 
  13. ^ . December 30, 2010 http://www.adn.com/2010/12/30/1625216/state-set-to-certify-alaska-senate.html. Retrieved December 30, 2010.  Missing or empty |title= (help)
  14. ^ a b Bohrer, Becky (December 31, 2010). "Miller says he's ending legal fight, conceding". Associated Press. Retrieved December 31, 2010. 
  15. ^ a b c "August 24, 2010 Primary Candidate List". State of Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved June 16, 2010. 
  16. ^ "Mayor files paper". June 2, 2010. 
  17. ^ a b Cockerham, Sean (May 4, 2010). "Former Palin ally challenges Alaska Sen. Murkowski for GOP support". Associated Press. Retrieved May 28, 2010. [dead link]
  18. ^ a b "State of Alaska 2010 Primary Election August 24, 2010 Unofficial Results". State of Alaska Division of Elections. August 25, 2010. Retrieved August 25, 2010. 
  19. ^ a b William Yardley (September 3, 2010). "Alaska Winner, Lover of Privacy, Loses His Own". The New York Times.  (voter turnout for the primary)
  20. ^ a b "Joe Miller for Senate". Joemiller.us. Retrieved November 3, 2010. 
  21. ^ "Endorsements « Lisa Murkowski". Lisamurkowski.com. Retrieved October 23, 2010. 
  22. ^ "Joe Miller for Senate – Endorsements". Joemiller.us. October 28, 2010. Retrieved November 3, 2010. 
  23. ^ Memoli, Michael A. (August 27, 2010). "Libertarians an option for Murkowski". Seattle Times. Retrieved August 28, 2010. "The state Libertarian Party told the Anchorage Daily News that it was open to the possibility of nominating Murkowski as a third-party candidate, a notion that her campaign is not embracing but has not ruled out." 
  24. ^ a b Sean Cockerham (September 11, 2010). "Murkowski: No decision has been made on write-in option ; Despite rumors, her camp says it's not a done deal". The Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved October 23, 2010. 
  25. ^ Sean Cockerham (September 8, 2010). "Libertarians cool to Murkowski candidacy; ALTERNATIVE: Senator could wage a campaign as a write-in". The Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved October 23, 2010. 
  26. ^ Conroy, Scott (September 13, 2010). "Real Clear Politics". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 23, 2010. 
  27. ^ Sean Cockerham and Erika Bolstad (September 18, 2010). "Murkowski says 'Let's Make History'". The Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved October 23, 2010. 
  28. ^ a b "November 2, 2010 General Election Candidate List". State of Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved June 16, 2010. 
  29. ^ a b Richard Mauer (October 18, 2010). "Miller security guards handcuff editor". Anchorage Daily News. 
  30. ^ "Write-in candidate list mistakenly posted in city voting booths". Homer News. October 20, 2010. 
  31. ^ "ADP sues DOE Alaska Democratic Party website, 10-25-2010". Alaskademocrats.org. October 25, 2010. Retrieved November 3, 2010. 
  32. ^ Dan Joling (October 25, 2010). "Judge wants more info in Alaska election lawsuit". Anchorage Daily News. Associated Press. Retrieved November 3, 2010. [dead link]
  33. ^ By DAN JOLING / Associated Press Writer (October 27, 2010). "Alaska judge blocks distribution of write-in names Dan Joling Associated Press/Anchorage Daily News 10-27-2010". Adn.com. Retrieved November 3, 2010. [dead link]
  34. ^ a b "Election Night 2010: Division of Elections on Write-In Votes". APRN. November 2, 2010. 
  35. ^ "No Decision on Write-In Lists Yet Ellen Lockyer KSKA/APRN 10-29-2010". Aprn.org. October 29, 2010. Retrieved November 3, 2010. 
  36. ^ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 24, 2010. 
  37. ^ "Election 2010: Senate Balance Of Power". Rasmussen Reports. Retrieved October 24, 2010. 
  38. ^ "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 24, 2010. 
  39. ^ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 24, 2010. 
  40. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Retrieved October 24, 2010. 
  41. ^ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 24, 2010. 
  42. ^ "Senate Ratings". Electoral-vote.com. Retrieved October 30, 2010. 
  43. ^ "Senate Race Ratings". New York Times. Retrieved October 24, 2010. 
  44. ^ Conroy, Scott (September 13, 2010). "In Blow to Murkowski, Alaska Libertarian Nominee Will Stay on Ballot". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 23, 2010. 
  45. ^ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Alaska". fec.gov. Retrieved September 29, 2010. 
  46. ^ "State of Alaska 2010 General Election November 2, 2010 Unofficial Results". State of Alaska Division of Elections. November 17, 2010. Retrieved November 17, 2010. 
  47. ^ Shira Toeplitz (November 9, 2010). "Miller gaining ground in Alaska". "Politico". 
  48. ^ http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1110/44928.html; http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/09/AR2010110907062_2.html
  49. ^ Becky Boehrer (November 17, 2010). "Murkowski Alaska-bound as vote counting winds down". Anchorage Daily News. Associated Press. [dead link]
  50. ^ Sean Cockerham (December 11, 2010). "Murkowski confident as write-in tally for Senate continues". Anchorage Daily News. 
  51. ^ a b Murkowski passes Miller in vote count Sean Cockerham, Anchorage Daily News 11-15-2010
  52. ^ Miller calls for hand recount of votes as Murkowski lead grows Sean Cockerham, Anchorage Daily News, 11-17-2010
  53. ^ a b Dan Joling (November 19, 2010). "Miller seeks to stop Alaska Senate election certification". Fairbanks Daily News Miner. Associated Press. 
  54. ^ a b c Rachel D'Oro (November 22, 2010). "Miller files vote-count lawsuit in Alaska state court". Fairbanks Daily News Miner. Associated Press. 
  55. ^ Sandyha Somashekhar (November 27, 2010). "Despite Alaska Senate race results, Joe Miller presses on in principle". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 28, 2010. 
  56. ^ "Alaska high court throws out Miller claims". Associated Press. December 22, 2010. Retrieved December 22, 2010. 
  57. ^ "Miller v Treadwell". THE SUPREME COURT OF THE STATE OF ALASKA. Archived from the original on December 23, 2010. Retrieved December 23, 2010. 
  58. ^ "Miller won't oppose certification of Senate race". KTUU-TV. December 26, 2010. Retrieved December 27, 2010. 
  59. ^ "State of Alaska 2010 General Election Unofficial Results". November 19, 2010. Retrieved December 13, 2010. 

External links[edit]

Debates
Official campaign websites