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This article has been mentioned by multiple media organizations:

Sarah McBroom (March 27, 2007). "Conservapedia.com -- an encyclopedic message from the right". Scripps Howard News Service.
Michael Booth (April 30, 2007). "Grading Wikipedia". The Denver Post.
Lawrence Solomon (July 8, 2008). "Wikipropaganda On Global Warming". CBS News.
"Topics that spark Wikipedia 'edit wars' revealed". BBC News. July 18, 2013.

This page is not a forum for general discussion about Climate change. Any such comments may be removed or refactored. Please limit discussion to improvement of this article. You may wish to ask factual questions about Climate change at the Reference desk.

Discussions on this page often lead to previous arguments being restated. Please read recent comments, look in the archives, and review the FAQ before commenting.

faq page

Frequently asked questions

To view an answer, click the [show] link to the right of the question. To view references used by an answer, you must also click the [show] for references at the bottom of the FAQ.

Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on climate change?

A1: Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. This scientific consensus is supported by over 99% of publishing climate scientists.^[1]

Q2: How can we say climate change is real when it's been so cold in such-and-such a place?

A2: This is why it is termed "global warming", not "(such-and-such a place) warming". Even then, what rises is the average temperature over time – that is, the temperature will fluctuate up and down within the overall rising trend. To give an idea of the relevant time scales, the standard averaging period specified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 30 years. Accordingly, the WMO defines climate change as "a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)."^[2]

Q3: Can't the increase of CO₂ be from natural sources, like volcanoes or the oceans?

A3: While these claims are popular among global warming skeptics,^[3]^[4] including academically trained ones,^[5]^[6] they are incorrect. This is known from any of several perspectives:

Current human emissions of CO₂ are at least 100 times larger than volcanic emissions. Measurements of CO₂ levels over the past 50 years do not show any significant rises after eruptions.^[7] This is easily seen in a graph of CO₂ concentrations over the past 50 years: the strongest eruption during the period, that of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, produced no increase in the trend.
Isotopic analysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide shows the observed change in the ratio of carbon isotopes reflects the isotopic ratios in fossil fuels.^[8]
Atmospheric oxygen content is decreasing at a rate that agrees with the amount of oxygen being used to burn fossil fuels.^[9]
If the oceans were giving up some of their carbon dioxide, their carbon dioxide concentration would have to decrease. But instead we are measuring an increase in the oceans' carbon dioxide concentration, resulting in the oceans becoming more acidic (or in other words, less basic).^[10]

Q4: I think the article is missing some things, or has some things wrong. Can I change it?

A4: Yes. Keep in mind that your points need to be based on documented evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, or other information that meets standards of verifiability, reliability, and no original research. If you do not have such evidence, more experienced editors may be able to help you find it (or confirm that such evidence does not exist). You are welcome to make such queries on the article's talk page but please keep in mind that the talk page is for discussing improvements to the article, not discussing the topic. There are many forums that welcome general discussions of global warming, but the article talk page is not such a forum.

Q5: Why haven't the graphs been updated?

A5: Two reasons:

There are many images used in the articles related to global warming, and there are many reasons why they may not be updated with the latest data. Some of the figures, like the Global Warming Map, are static, meaning that they are intended to show a particular phenomenon and are not meant to be updated frequently or at all. Others, like the Instrumental Temperature Record and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent Anomalies, use yearly data and thus are updated once per year—usually in mid- to late-January, depending upon when the data is publicly released, and when a volunteer creates the image. Still others, like Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide, use monthly data. These are updated semi-regularly.
However, just because an image is 6 months or a year old does not mean it is useless. Robert A. Heinlein is credited with saying, "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", meaning that climate is defined as a long-term average of weather, usually about 30 years. This length was chosen to eliminate the year-to-year variations.^[11] Thus, in terms of climate change, any given year's data is of little import.

Q6: Isn't climate change "just a theory"?

A6: People who say this are abusing the word "theory" by conflating its common meaning with its scientific meaning. In common usage, "theory" can mean a hunch or guess, but a scientific theory, roughly speaking, means a coherent set of explanations that is compatible with observations and that allows predictions to be made. That the temperature is rising is an observation. An explanation for this (also known as a hypothesis) is that the warming is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (such as CO₂ and methane) released into the atmosphere by human activity. Scientific models have been built that predict the rise in temperature and these predictions have matched observations. When scientists gain confidence in a hypothesis because it matches observation and has survived intense scrutiny, the hypothesis may be called a "theory". Strictly speaking, scientific theories are never proven, but the degree of confidence in a theory can be discussed. The scientific models now suggest that it is "extremely likely" (>95%) to "virtually certain" (>99%) that the increases in temperature have been caused by human activity as discussed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Global warming via greenhouse gases by human activity is a theory (in the scientific sense), but it is most definitely not just a hunch or guess.

Q7: Does methane cause more warming than CO₂?

A7: It's true that methane is more potent molecule for molecule. But there's far less of it in the atmosphere, so the total effect is smaller. The atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO₂ (hundreds to thousands of years), so when methane emissions are reduced the concentration in the atmosphere soon falls, whereas CO₂ accumulates in the atmosphere over long periods. For details see the greenhouse gas and global warming potential articles.

Q8: How can you say there's a consensus when lists of "skeptical scientists" have been compiled?

A8: Consensus is not the same as unanimity, the latter of which is impractical for large groups. Over 99% of publishing climate scientists agree on anthropogenic climate change.^[1] This is an extremely high percentage well past any reasonable threshold for consensus. Any list of "skeptical scientists" would be dwarfed by a comparably compiled list of scientists accepting anthropogenic climate change.

Q9: Did climate change end in 1998?

A9: One of the strongest El Niño events in the instrumental record occurred during late 1997 through 1998, causing a spike in global temperature for 1998. Through the mid-late 2000s this abnormally warm year could be chosen as the starting point for comparisons with later years in order to produce a cooling trend; choosing any other year in the 20th century produced a warming trend. This no longer holds since the mean global temperatures in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998.^[12] More importantly, scientists do not define a "trend" by looking at the difference between two given years. Instead they use methods such as linear regression that take into account all the values in a series of data. The World Meteorological Organisation specifies 30 years as the standard averaging period for climate statistics so that year-to-year fluctuations are averaged out;^[2] thus, 10 years isn't long enough to detect a climate trend.

Q10: Wasn't Greenland much warmer during the period of Norse settlement?

A10: Some people assume this because of the island's name. In fact the Saga of Erik the Red tells us Erik named the new colony Greenland because "men will desire much the more to go there if the land has a good name."^[13] Advertising hype was alive and well in 985 AD.

While much of Greenland was and remains under a large ice sheet, the areas of Greenland that were settled by the Norse were coastal areas with fjords that, to this day, remain quite green. You can see the following images for reference:

A map of the Eastern Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A map of the Western Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A zoom in on the general area where the Brattahlíð (Erik the Red's farm) and Garðar farms were located

Q11: Are the IPCC reports prepared by biased UN scientists?

A11: The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and it has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by various organizations including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties.

Q12: Hasn't global sea ice increased over the last 30 years?

A12: Measurements show that it has not.^[14] Claims that global sea ice amounts have stayed the same or increased are a result of cherry picking two data points to compare, while ignoring the real (strongly statistically significant) downward trend in measurements of global sea ice amounts.

Arctic sea ice cover is declining strongly; Antarctic sea ice cover has had some much smaller increases, though it may or may not be thinning, and the Southern Ocean is warming. The net global ice-cover trend is clearly downwards.

Q13: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that the Earth was cooling instead of warming?

A13: They weren't – see the article on global cooling. An article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has reviewed the scientific literature at that time and found that even during the 1970s the prevailing scientific concern was over warming.^[15] The common misperception that cooling was the main concern during the 1970s arose from a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, such as a short nine-paragraph article that appeared in Newsweek in 1975.^[16] (Newsweek eventually apologized for having misrepresented the state of the science in the 1970s.)^[17] The author of that article has repudiated the idea that it should be used to deny global warming.^[18]

Q14: Doesn't water vapour cause 98% of the greenhouse effect?

A14: Water vapour is indeed a major greenhouse gas, contributing about 36% to 70% (not 98%) of the total greenhouse effect. But water vapour has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days), compared with decades to centuries for greenhouse gases like CO₂ or nitrous oxide. As a result it is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, which globally maintains a nearly constant relative humidity. In simpler terms, any excess water vapour is removed by rainfall, and any deficit of water vapour is replenished by evaporation from the Earth's surface, which literally has oceans of water. Thus water vapour cannot act as a driver of climate change.

Rising temperatures caused by the long-lived greenhouse gases will however allow the atmosphere to hold more vapour. This will lead to an increase in the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Since water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, this is an example of a positive feedback. Thus, whereas water vapour is not a driver of climate change, it amplifies existing trends.

Q15: Is the fact that other solar system bodies are warming evidence for a common cause (i.e. the sun)?

A15: While some solar system bodies show evidence of local or global climate change, there is no evidence for a common cause of warming.

A 2007 National Geographic article described the views of Khabibullo Abdusamatov, who claims that the sun is responsible for global warming on both Earth and Mars.^[19] Abdussamatov's views have no support in the scientific community, as the second page of the National Geographic article makes clear: "'His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion,' said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University. [...] Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that 'the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations.'"^[20]
There is no reliable source claiming that Jupiter is warming. However, observations of the Red Spot Jr. storm suggest Jupiter could be in a period of global climate change.^[21]^[22] This is hypothesized to be part of an approximately 70 year global climate cycle, characterized by the relatively rapid forming and subsequent slow erosion and merging of cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices that help transfer heat between Jupiter's poles and equator. The cycle works like this: As the vortices erode, heat exchange is reduced; this makes the poles cool down and the equatorial region heat up; the resulting temperature difference destabilizes the atmosphere, leading to the creation of new vortices.^[23]^[24]
Pluto has an extremely elliptical orbit with a period of about 248 years. Data are sparse, but two data points from 1988 and 2002 indirectly suggest that Pluto warmed between those two dates.^[25] Pluto's temperature is heavily influenced by its elliptical orbit – it was closest to the sun in 1989 and has slowly receded since. Because of thermal inertia, it is expected to warm for a while after it passes perihelion (similar to how a sunny day's warmest temperatures happen during the afternoon instead of right at noon). No other mechanism has so far been seriously suggested. Here is a reasonable summary, and this paper discusses how the thermal inertia is provided by sublimation and evaporation of parts of Pluto's atmosphere. A more popular account is here and in Wikipedia's own article.

Q16: Do scientists support climate change just to get more money?

A16: No,

Scientists participate in international organizations like the IPCC as part of their normal academic duties. They do not receive any extra compensation beyond possibly for direct expenses.
Scientific grants do not usually award any money to a scientist personally, only towards the cost of his or her scientific work.
There is not a shortage of useful things that scientists could study if they were not studying global warming.
- Understanding our climate system better brings benefits independent of global warming. For instance, more accurate weather predictions save a lot of money (on the order of billions of dollars a year), and everyone from insurance agents to farmers wants climate data.^[26]^[27] Scientists could get paid to study climate even if global warming did not exist.

Q17: Doesn't the climate vary even without human activity?

A17: It does, but the fact that natural variation occurs does not mean that human-induced change cannot also occur. Climate scientists have extensively studied natural causes of climate change (such as orbital changes, volcanism, and solar variation) and have ruled them out as an explanation for the current temperature increase. Human activity is the cause at the 95 to 99 percent confidence level (see the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for details). The high level of certainty in this is important to keep in mind to spot mention of natural variation functioning as a distraction.

Q18: Should we include the view that climate change will lead to planetary doom or catastrophe?

A18: This page is about the science of climate change. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe. For a technical explanation, see catastrophic climate change, and for paleoclimatic examples see PETM and great dying.

Q19: Is an increase in global temperature of, say, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) important?

A19: Though it may not sound like much, a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is huge in climate terms. For example, the sea level rise it would produce would flood coastal cities around the world, which include most large cities.

Earth's climate has varied significantly over geological ages. The question of an "optimal temperature" makes no sense without a clear optimality criterion. Over geological time spans, ecosystems adapt to climate variations. But global climate variations during the development of human civilization (i.e. the past 12,000 years) have been remarkably small. Human civilization is highly adapted to the current stable climate. Agricultural production depends on the proper combination of soil, climate, methods, and seeds. Most large cities are located on the coast, and any significant change in sea level would strongly affect them. Migration of humans and ecosystems is limited by political borders and existing land use. In short, the main problem is not the higher absolute temperature but the massive and unprecedentedly fast change in climate and the related effects on human societies. The IPCC AR6 WG2 report has a detailed discussion of the effects of rapid climate change.

Q20: Why are certain proposals to change the article discarded, deleted, or ignored? Who is/was Scibaby?

A20: Scibaby is/was a long term abusive sock-master (or coordinated group of sock masters) who has created 1,027 confirmed sock puppets, another 167 suspected socks, and probably many untagged or unrecognized ones. This page lists some recent creations. His modus operandi has changed over time, but includes proposing reasonably worded additions on the talk page that only on close examination turn out to be irrelevant, misinterpreted, or give undue weight to certain aspects. Scibaby is banned, and Scibaby socks are blocked as soon as they are identified. Some editors silently revert his additions, per WP:DENY, while others still assume good faith even for likely socks and engage them.

Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer-reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...?

A21: There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published every month in respected scientific journals such as Geophysical Research Letters, the Journal of Climate, and others. We can't include all of them, but the article does include references to individual papers where there is consensus that they best represent the state of the relevant science. This is in accordance with the "due weight" principle (WP:WEIGHT) of the Neutral point of view policy and the "Wikipedia is not an indiscriminate collection of information" principle (WP:IINFO) of the What Wikipedia is not policy.

Q22: Why does the article define "climate change" as a recent phenomenon? Hasn't the planet warmed and cooled before?

A22: Yes, the planet has warmed and cooled before. However, the term "climate change" without further qualification is widely understood to refer to the recent episode and often explicitly connected with the greenhouse effect. Per WP:COMMONNAME, we use the term in this most common meaning. The article Climate variability and change deals with the more general concept.

Q23: Did the CERN CLOUD experiment prove that climate change is caused not by human activity but by cosmic rays?

A23: No. For cosmic rays to be causing global warming, all of the following would have to be true, whereas only the italicized one was tested in the 2011 experiment:^[28]

Solar magnetic field must be getting stronger
The number of cosmic rays reaching Earth must be dropping
Cosmic rays must successfully seed clouds, which requires:

Cosmic rays must trigger aerosol (liquid droplet) formation,
These newly-formed aerosols must grow sufficiently through condensation to form cloud-condensation nuclei (CCN),
The CCN must lead to increased cloud formation, and
Cloud cover on Earth must be declining.

Perhaps the study's lead author, Jasper Kirkby, put it best: "...it [the experiment] actually says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate, but it's a very important first step."^[29]

Q24: I read that something can't fix climate change. Is this true?

A24: Yes, this is true for all plausible single things including: "electric cars", "planting trees", "low-carbon technology", "renewable energy", "Australia", "capitalism", "the doom & gloom approach", "a Ph.D. in thermodynamics". Note that it is problematic to use the word "fix" regarding climate change, as returning the climate to its pre-industrial state currently appears to be feasible only over a timeframe of thousands of years. Current efforts are instead aimed at mitigating (meaning limiting) climate change. Mitigation is strived for through the combination of many different things. See Climate change mitigation for details.

References

^ ^a ^b Powell, James (20 November 2019). "Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming". Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 37 (4): 183–184. doi:10.1177/0270467619886266. S2CID 213454806. Retrieved 15 November 2020.
^ ^a ^b "Commission for Climatology Frequently Asked Questions". World Meteorological Organization. Archived from the original on 5 May 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020.
^ Harris, Tom. "Scientists who work in the fields liberal arts graduate Al Gore wanders through contradict his theories about man-induced climate change". National Post. Archived from the original on 30 August 2011. Retrieved 11 January 2009 – via Solid Waste & Recycling. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; 4 February 2012 suggested (help)
^ Arriola, Benj. "5 Good Arguments Why GlobalWarming is NOT due to Man-made Carbon Dioxide". Global Warming Awareness Blog. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Ahlbeck, Jarl. "Increase of the Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration due to Ocean Warming". Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Kirby, Simon (11 April 2007). "Top scientist debunks global warming". Herald Sun. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Brahic, Catherine (16 May 2007). "Climate myths: Human CO2 emissions are too tiny to matter". New Scientist. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ "More Notes on Global Warming". Physics Today. May 2005. Retrieved 10 September 2007.
^ Battle, M.; et al. (2000). "Global Carbon Sinks and Their Variability Inferred from Atmospheric O2 and d13C". Science. 287 (5462): 2467–2470. doi:10.1126/science.287.5462.2467.
^ The Royal Society (2005). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide". Retrieved 9 May 2012.
^ "Met Office: Climate averages". Met Office. Archived from the original on 24 February 2009. Retrieved 23 January 2009.
^ Climate Central (18 January 2017). "2016 Was the Hottest Year on Record". Climate Central. Retrieved 1 February 2017.
^ The Saga of Erik the Red, 1880, English translation by J. Sephton, from the original Eiríks saga rauða.
^ "Cold Hard Facts". Tamino. 8 January 2009. Retrieved 21 January 2009.^{[dead link]}
^ Peterson, T. C.; et al. (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 89 (9): 1325. Bibcode:2008BAMS...89.1325P. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1.
^ Gwynne, Peter (28 April 1975). "The Cooling World". Newsweek. p. 64.
^ Verger, Rob (23 May 2014). "Newsweek Rewind: Debunking Global Cooling". Newsweek.
^ Gwynne, Peter (21 May 2014). "My 1975 'Cooling World' Story Doesn't Make Today's Climate Scientists Wrong". insidescience.org.
^ Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
^ Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says (page 2)". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
^ Marcus, Philip; Shetty, Sushil; Asay-Davis, Xylar (November 2006). Velocities and Temperatures of Jupiter's Great Red Spot and the New Red Oval and Implications for Global Climate Change. American Physical Society. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Goudarzi, Sara (4 May 2006). "New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change". Space.com. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Philip, Marcus S. (22 April 2004). "Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter" (PDF). Nature. 428 (6985): 828–831. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Yang, Sarah (21 April 2004). "Researcher predicts global climate change on Jupiter as giant planet's spots disappear". University of California, Berkeley. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Elliot, J. L.; et al. (10 July 2003). "The recent expansion of Pluto's atmosphere". Nature (424): 165–168. doi:10.1038/nature01762.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
^ Foerster, Jim. "What's The Difference Between Private Weather Companies And The National Weather Service?". Forbes.
^ Eilts, Mike (27 November 2018). "The Role of Weather—and Weather Forecasting—in Agriculture". DTN.
^ "What do the CERN experiments tell us about global warming?". Skeptical Science. 2 September 2011.
^ Brumfiel, Geoff (23 August 2011). "Cloud Formation May Be Linked to Cosmic Rays". Scientific American.

Archives

Index 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20
21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30
31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40
41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50
51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60
61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70
71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80
81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90
91, 92, 93, 94, 95

/Terminology section /General discussion

This page has archives. Sections older than 21 days may be automatically archived by when more than 8 sections are present.

Article issues

Since my recent edits got reverted i ask to address them here, rather than reintroducing false, outdated data, sorting and broken Refs. I will re-add content which is deemed necessary but believe most edits have been an improvement. prokaryotes (talk) 23:05, 15 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]
Summary of recent page content edits

~~Volcanism is not an external forcing~~ (wrong conclusion)
Particulates and soot is not an external forcing. (Apparently is both)
~~Human actions are not an external forcing~~ (AR5 glossary = Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.)
~~This part only lists "external forcings, for climate responses, doesn't mention human attribution~~ (scope)
This part suggest we are not within an Ice Age.
This part suggest again that there is no human attribution.
The section "Initial causes of temperature changes (external forcings)", falsely lists greenhouse gases as an external forcing.
This edit updated a AR3 conclusion, which is no longer valid.
This edit corrects a misleading value.

Improvements

Sorting and cleanup of external link section (a lot of broken and outdated links), Done Y prokaryotes (talk) 15:47, 18 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Edits which have been criticized

Removal of "Ship tracks" image. If this really is a good picture to depict global warming, then we keep it. prokaryotes (talk) 23:48, 15 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

If anything from these edits is wrong, point it out, rather than reverting everything. prokaryotes (talk) 23:22, 15 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Also notice when you look at the cites, that i moved sections and renamed section titles (in particular "Initial causes of temperature changes (external forcings)", to better reflect the science. prokaryotes (talk) 23:34, 15 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Suggestion
Revert to this edit (includes "Ship track img", and address issues here on a case by case basis. prokaryotes (talk) 23:59, 15 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

(A)It's hard for the rest of us to deal with shotgun pellet editing. The BBs come faster than we can think about them. Although lots of climate hawks think the issue is an emergency, our writing about it is not in crisis mode. So the first problem is a process problem, in the nature of the rapid rate of tweaking.

(B)While others may look at details immediately, I will take more detailed time tomorrow or later in the week. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:29, 15 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

I understand that this is not a crisis mode, but wrongs should be corrected and i would rather replace my edits and address them on a case by case basis, than to have them all removed. This should be clear from looking up specific cites of interests. Thanks. prokaryotes (talk) 23:36, 15 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Please let us know when you're done tweaking the menu of things to talk about. Alternatively, organize the long list with section headings. When you string a whole lot of christmas lights together and keep fiddling, it makes it impossible to have meaningful discussion. Suggest studying WP:TALK for tips. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 01:01, 16 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

NewsAndEventsGuy, you complained in your revert about the image removal, i suggested to keep it, if you have any other issue with my edits (see edit history or above case-by-case cites i added to make it easier for you). If this isn't enough for you I'm sorry but if you revert with claiming there are issues, you have to address them. prokaryotes (talk) 02:14, 16 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Please quote the words by which I complained about image removal specifically. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 02:37, 16 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

In your edit summary? At least that's what i get when you refer to dimming, since i only changed the image there(removed it). prokaryotes (talk) 02:38, 16 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

You really think this only removed an image? I'd like to work thru this stuff, but its going to take some good communication (and more time than I have right now). NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 06:55, 16 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

What else do you suggest i removed "beside this image"? And btw. if you do not have time now, then you maybe shouldn't get involved. However, if you have issue with the edit "we can keep it" (Also, i went to the NASA site and couldn't find the article about this image there on their archive page from May 2005). If you have any other issue with the recent edits i ask you to refer exactly to the specific cites. prokaryotes (talk) 09:34, 16 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

If I may attempt to reduce confusion, I believe what NewsAndEventsGuy is objecting to in that particular edit is the addition of {{Main|Global dimming}} to the Particulates and Soot section. Novusuna ^talk 09:40, 16 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

The ship tracks article can be found here, i've updated the image link. (NASA doesn't list the photo on their archive page) prokaryotes (talk) 09:47, 16 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

I see no problem with including the link to dimming there, since the entire section is about this term, other related articles could be added there as well. It might could read "See also", however this isn't really a reason to revert all the edits. prokaryotes (talk) 09:53, 16 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

"Volcanism is not an external forcing" is wrong William M. Connolley (talk) 13:42, 16 April 2014 (UTC) e/c[reply]

Ok! I just look through the new IPCC 8Cpater 11) and found this definition "‘External forcing’ is a term used by climate scientists to refer to a forcing agent outside the climate system causing a change in the climate system. This includes increases in the concentration of long-lived greenhouse gases." I still looking for more up to date info on this. prokaryotes (talk) 14:08, 16 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

So, the problem you have there is that you've read their words but you haven't understood them William M. Connolley (talk) 14:43, 16 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Notice that volcanic activity on long time scales appears not to be an external forcing and it also appears to depend if a volcano is active or not? However, you are the last person who seems to have any interest to be constructive. The entire discussion here could have been more streamlined if you had stated in your edit summary what you wrote 24 hours later here (without any cite, lol). Maybe be more precise the next time? prokaryotes (talk) 15:12, 16 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Reverted changes to external forcings & some related section(s)

Diff to this series of edits

Current reasons for objection (I may notice others later)

IPCC used to define Volcanism as external and so far as I know they still do. Discussed before here
New heading "natural causes of temperature changes" would have expanded scope of section to include all natural feedbacks (e.g., permafrost outgassing naturally outgassing in response to an external forcing). That is a large structural change that is not an improvement.
The edit summary asserts that human changes are not an external forcing. Unless IPCC changed that def in AR5, IPCC says differently in the AR4 glossary for "External forcing"
Some of the text that would have resulted included this External climate forcings include, the Milankovitch cycles, the variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun. The solar insolation, is the total amount of solar radiation (sunlight) received by Earth. in which there are multipled messy grammar errors that makes the text very hard to read and unprofessional-looking.

Suggested way to proceed

Discuss desired structural & organizational changes here first. You might consider either posting draft text here, or doing a large one-shot change as a demo edit, and then self reverting. That produces a diff to the proposal without going "live" until there's an agreement in principle that the structure/organization needs to change. I'm actually glad you brought it up, because I do think we could make the material more accessible to the average reader. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 13:46, 16 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks, NewsAndEventsGuy for taking the time to explain now in detail what was at issue. prokaryotes (talk) 14:25, 16 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Notice the topic is brought up here (updated, per AR5) as well, and here (~~Requires attention~~, sorted per AR5, though not entirely sure about tectonics.). prokaryotes (talk) 14:53, 16 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

This edit also falls in this group. I think IPCC uses "external forcing" and "internal variability" and although we've got external "forcing" sources of CO2 from humans and volcanos (and other?), does IPCC call CO2 related to climate change feedback a "forcing". I realize the RC blog does do that, and they are certainly experts in the field. Comments? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 14:10, 24 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

External links section

FYI I created a draft, beginning with the external links section, here. prokaryotes (talk) 14:25, 16 April 2014 (UTC) While I might have overstepped WP:TPOC, I inserted a section heading and slightly tweaked Prokaryotes text so it makes sense with the new section heading. Please revert if objectionable NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 14:46, 16 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Any comment on the external links? I'll wait till you are back. prokaryotes (talk) 15:03, 16 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Ext Links - Descriptive text

Prokaryotes draft would omit the descriptive text for the various ext links. I don't have super strong feelings about it. It seems sorta helpful, but it does add bytes to an already long article. Thoughts, anyone? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 13:14, 17 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Please use my draft version, you forgot links and deleted a link i moved. I could adjust the formatting. prokaryotes (talk) 14:59, 17 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

~~I haven't yet compared the old-version/new-version links under "education" heading. May do that tomorrow. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:32, 17 April 2014 (UTC)~~ Now done.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 14:44, 18 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Ext Links - education section

I think Prokaryotes wants to delete these five, which I have cut and pasted from the article.

Best Effort Global Warming Trajectories – Wolfram Demonstrations Project – by Harvey Lam
Koshland Science Museum – Global Warming Facts and Our Future – graphical introduction from National Academy of Sciences
Climate Change: Coral Reefs on the Edge – A video presentation by Prof. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, University of Auckland
Global Warming
Video on the effects of global warming on St. Lawrence Island in the Bering Sea

Comments? Should any/all be restored to the article? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 14:44, 18 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Reverted changes to feedbacks and models section

Diff to this series of edits

I tweaked the section heading and added Climate sensitivity as an additional "main" article like you wished.
For starters, what do the RSs say about "internal forcing". IPCC seems to use the phrase "internal variability" a lot. In the RSs, is there a difference between "internal forcing" and "internal variability", or are these phrases synonyms used by different scientific writers as we try to firm up the technical meaning of the vocabulary we use? Any insight, @William M. Connolley:?
I think I have more to say, depending on the answer to the prior question.

NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 14:42, 16 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Abrupt climate change section

Reasons

Permafrost is not exclusively in the arctic circle. Resist desire to cram in favorite WP:OVERLINKS
Whereas IPCC said "liklihood is low" in a prior report, and in AR5 said there is "low confidence and no consensus" on liklihood under existing research, and while IPCC did identify various things that could be impacted and ways they could be impacted, the reverted text injects much more certainty than IPCC stated. I'm happy covering these things and the efforts being made to establish "high confidence and consensus" about them in NPOV fashion. But this edit doesn't do that.
Prior wordsmithing was just fine

NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 14:40, 24 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Simple edit

WP:SOAP is WP:SOAP, regardless of POV. Except for a minor thing now fixed this thread lacks article-improvement ideas. Click 'show' to read anyway

Spending some time looking at past edits on this article, I applaud the wiki editors who have put up with so many AGW denialists. I just wanted this part of the intro to read "interGOVERNMENTAL Panel on Climate Change" instead of "interNATIONAL Panel on Climate Change." Just click the link to the wiki IPCC article or go to the IPCC's website. The Talk [[1]] has some folks citing the Global Warming Policy Foundation and talking about how the models have over predicted change. That's a freqent denialist tack. While models (and there are many of them) have both over AND underpredicted different changes resulting from global warming, the evidence suggests the IPCC (which uses an ensemble of different models) has more frequently UNDERpredicted changes. Here's the cite for that claim--Brysse, K., Oreskes, N., O’Reilly, J., Oppenheimer, M., 2013. Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama? Global Environmental Change 23, 327–337. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.008--and I can send if you can't find a copy.

I also get a bad feeling with these folks who want to parse the difference between "global warming" and "climate change." They are used interchangeably. Global warming is the heating up of the globe (land and sea surface, ocean, cryosphere) by humans. Climate change is the same thing, though usually has a connotation more on the effects of a heating planet. Global warming was the dominant phrase up until right wingers figured out that "global warming" made it sound like climate scientists knew what they were talking about while "climate change" made it sound wishy-washy, like they were uncertain. There's a memo that the republican strategist frank luntz wrote where he encouraged republicans to use "climate change." Here's a link to a Guardian article talking on that Luntz memo. Bobbywego (talk) 02:28, 20 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

As suggested in this thread, I fixed the name of the IPCC. However, the rest of the thread is unhelpful WP:SOAP and WP:FORUM. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 12:27, 20 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

1st paragraph, rise in air temp

This is a WP:FORUM and is not about article improvement by the IP's own admission. Click "show" to read anyway

"Since the early 20th century, the global air and sea surface temperature has increased about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F), with about two-thirds of the increase occurring since 1980"

The graph to the right clearly show a 1.0 change (from below -0.4, 1905-1910) to 0.6 (2000-2014) The value for 1980 is 0.2, making the changes 40% since 1980, and not 66%.

Just another lie for the GWH — Preceding unsigned comment added by 79.182.117.192 (talk) 00:58, 21 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

ah, I see that the season for picking cherries has started early this year! Slight point in that it's 2/3 since the 1970s, not necessarily since 1980. Sailsbystars (talk) 04:37, 21 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

I take that to mean that you admit, that the article overview contains lies? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 79.182.117.192 (talk) 20:37, 26 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Did you notice the citation at the end of the sentence you quote: 'America's Climate Choices. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. 2011. p. 15. ISBN 978-0-309-14585-5. "The average temperature of the Earth's surface increased by about 1.4 °F (0.8 °C) over the past 100 years, with about 1.0 °F (0.6 °C) of this warming occurring over just the past three decades."' --Nigelj (talk) 21:46, 26 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Again: A simple math argument shows the claim in the first paragraph to be wrong. Yes, I've noticed the citation, which is irrelevant, because the claim is still WRONG. Notice that the replies to my claim do not invalidate it, admit it in fact, than calls ME cherry-picker. hmm.

I'm not trying to fix this, because the whole article is clearly biased to anyone going outside of wiki's scope. I'm just documenting, for prosperity, just how bad scientists can distort facts and how useless wiki has become on any current-research issue. what a shame. this is also why I'm not using signing the comment. Its about wiki, not me.

About 2 years ago I've added into "talk" a question about how long of a period of no warming is needed so that it will actually be discussed in the main article. We're now up to 18 years, so any high school graduate can see from satellite data that there was zero trend since he was born. Of course, it is STILL not here. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 212.25.121.195 (talk) 16:00, 3 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

definition of IPCC 2014 of climate change

Gibberish and collapsed as WP:FORUM since there is no IPCC 2014 def of "climate change" in the article. Click 'show' to read anyway

has so many "ors". Is this for IPCC's safety due to whims (or guesses) they are implicated upon? Besides what is pointed in each item connected by OR here must bring heavy weight scientific proof that it bestows real "climate change" otherwise again IPCC is in the brain storming guessing game. And why do they again go back to blame anthropogenic disturbance (due to C02)? because of the high % and if the rest does not have a significant contribution then why include it in their definition. Are you not perplexed? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 112.202.21.81 (talk) 05:40, 24 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Besides using =OR= means that each item can stand independently as a sole source of climate change. Did you not find that a bit crazy? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 112.202.21.81 (talk) 05:52, 24 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

`You are referring to climate change definition 2010 of ipcc current only a few "or" — Preceding unsigned comment added by 199.68.218.218 (talk) 09:22, 24 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Off topic, since there is no such definition in the article. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 06:12, 24 April 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Continuing?

Given none of the graphs on this page show a warming after 1998 in what sense can the intro honestly say "continuing"? I am not a climate change skeptic and I think warming is ongoing on theoretical grounds but the fact is that strong evidence for warming after 1998 is currently lacking and no empirical evidence for warming post 1998 is shown on the page. The intro should be agreement with presented evidence within the pageTullimonstrum (talk) 09:52, 6 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Drawing your own conclusion from the image, instead of relying on what the experts say in the RSs, is WP:Original research, isn't it? Please see Global warming hiatus.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 11:16, 6 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

An aside, that trope may die an ugly death this year. El Nino looks like it may be back with a vengeance. Of course, then we'll have the "no warming since 2014" trope. Sailsbystars (talk) 13:28, 6 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Needs disambig. I assume you mean this kind of trope, since there has been no "pause" in earth's out-of-whack Radiative balance. For the OP, see e.g. this and this NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 13:42, 6 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

It's probably too late in the year to set a record this year, but maybe 2015.--S Philbrick (Talk) 13:51, 6 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Maybe we should add this table (the warmest years), https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record#Warmest_years - prokaryotes (talk) 14:19, 6 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

It's important to remember that Wikipedia is based on consensus. On issues like this, that means the consensus of what the active editors say that the broader consensus is. Arriving at logical conclusions based upon widely-available facts is considered original research, and is therefore repugnant to the principles of Wikipedia. Dispassionately reporting facts that might lead a reader to reach a contrary conclusion, especially on controversial topics, is similarly to be avoided - lest the reader be misled as to the consensus view of the truth. John2510 (talk) 15:04, 6 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Also be clear that the famous "hiatus" is in surface temperatures over a very short timescale, it's not evenly distributed with the fastest surface warming in areas which don't show in some series, and ocean temperatures have continued to increase. As the "hiatus" article indicates. Also, the "hiatus" has been a slowdown in the rate of increase of warming, but it's still been warming last I saw. . dave souza, talk 16:20, 6 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

I am not saying the last decade isn't the warmest on record, I am not saying that the radiative balance has suddenly improved. I am not saying there has not some southern oscillation effect going on. I am just saying as a matter of empirical fact that there is no observed upward trend in the unadjusted data since 1998/2000 so saying "continuing" RIGHT NOW is a trifle misleading "Dispassionately reporting facts that might lead a reader to reach a contrary conclusion, especially on controversial topics, is similarly to be avoided - lest the reader be misled as to the consensus view of the truth." I though dispassionately reporting facts was NPOV. But even ignoring that, wow, just wow... Tullimonstrum (talk) 16:58, 6 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

John tries to be sarcastic. As for "no observed upward trend in the unadjusted data", I'm not quite sure what you mean. You need some kind of adjustment just to arrive at a global temperature. If you mean the data plotted in File:Global_Temperature_Anomaly.svg, that depends entirely on the smoothing process. The NASA temperature reconstruction has a known problem with covering the polar regions - if one corrects for that, the "hiatus" vanishes. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 17:18, 6 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Tries? I thought I was reasonably successful at being sarcastic. The fact that one could confuse my sarcasm with the reality of Wikipedia (at least on controversial political articles like this one) says a lot about the proximity of my snark to the reality of Wikipedia. The suppression of materials setting forth the minority view, even where clearly labeled as such, hurt its credibility. John2510 (talk) 20:16, 6 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Pardon? Regrettably, my irony meter is broken and I'm unable to see how your snark has contributed anything to improving this article. Better to read the weatherunderground article linked below, which neatly covers some of the points I discussed. . dave souza, talk 21:21, 6 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

My contribution is to suggest that folks consider the benefit of including, at least in passing, objective statements of opposing views, even if they don't concur with them. It should scare anyone, especially in a science article, that people seem literally afraid to mention arguments in support of an opposing viewpoint. The "consensus" is against such objectivity. Editors don't believe that their proofs stand on their own merits and the reader can find the truth. Instead, the reader must be protected from somehow straying from the consensus view. I accept that I'm not going to change that in the current pool of active editors. John2510 (talk) 17:39, 7 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

I'd advise editors proposing changes to comply fully with WP:TALK and provide good sources supporting specific suggestions for article improvement. Your vague hand-waving seems unduly simplistic, but without draft wording backed by good third party sources it's hard to tell what you're proposing. . dave souza, talk 19:06, 7 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Here is weatherunderground's discussion of the hiatus-is-an-error-in-the-data point Stephan raised. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 17:55, 6 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

@Tullimonstrum (talk · contribs) I grant our article's lead & images in the lead might do better job of covering the "continuing" nature of the warming, but you've left me quite confused with your approach. Since for you the issue is our treatment of RIGHT NOW, and since you value NPOV, then let's rewind the thread, let's do a good job of focussing on RS content. Thus far, you haven't discussed any RS content, and so I can't tell if you have read them. (I'm generally not persuaded by mere claims of familiarity.) SUGGESTION: After you yourself have read the major RSs in Global warming, Global warming hiatus, and this very thread, what does your statement "I am not saying that the radiative balance has suddenly improved" mean ? Do you somehow think we're still gaining energy at 4 Hiroshima bombs per second without warming up? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 17:55, 6 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

His point, as I understand it, is that the very graphs appearing in this article (e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Global_Temperature_Anomaly.svg) show flat temperature change over approximately a ten year period. Maybe the whole Hiroshima bomb hyperbole is wrong (and, BTW, can anyone imagine a more inflammatory, fear mongering metaphor?). That, or the graph's broken. I'm betting it's the latter. John2510 (talk) 03:53, 9 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

See Global warming hiatus, and note that by "flat" you apparently mean the temperature record between 1997 and 2012 showed only a very slight warming trend of about 0.05 Celsius degrees per decade. Only relatively flat. As Masters says, "filling in the temperature record gaps brings the trend up to 0.12 Celsius degrees per decade, in line with the long-term climate trends, and You shouldn’t just focus on periods of 10 or 15 years when you look at climate change," .... "Climate is defined as a period of 30 years or longer, and we expect to see ups and downs in 10- or 15-year periods. So we shouldn’t pay too much attention to slowdowns or speed-ups during these relatively short periods of time." Perhaps you'd like to see a graph showing Cowtan and Way's assessment filling in the gaps? Alternatively, wait a bit. . . dave souza, talk 06:23, 9 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Huh... Yeah, flat wasn't really the right word, because it actually seems to have gone down between 2001 and 2012, unless yall's chart is wrong. Just out of curiosity, when did this "you can't just look at 15 years" theory first get proposed? Because I can remember when there were all these straight line progression predictions 10 to 15 years ago, and no one was saying anything about that then. I always thought science worked on making a hypothesis and then seeing how the data worked out, not the other way around. The climate change folks are starting to sound like the religious nuts who say the world is going to end on such-and-such a date and then, when it doesn't, they start making excuses and explanations about when it's really gonna end. Keep in mind, I'm old enough to remember when earnest young folks were quite certain that the earth's core was undoubtedly cooling, and the numbers removed no doubt that we were entering another ice age, and we were morons if we didn't see that. They didn't write about it on Wikipedia though. John2510 (talk) 03:33, 10 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Your eyeball is clearly not a suitable statistical tool for evaluating trends. From what I understand, the statistical requirement that "you can't just look at 15 years" goes back to the 1970s or earlier. Your memory of that era seems to be fading, like mine! There don't seem to be any straight line progression predictions in the IPCC TAR around 10 to 15 years ago: would you like to check that out? The global cooling issue was in the popular press rather than in science, and had nothing to do with arguments that the earth's core was undoubtedly cooling which are more associated with Lord Kelvin in the 19th century. Of course we're still heading for another ice age, in around 10,000 years time as scientists such as Hubert Lamb indicated in the early 1970s. Unfortunately current anthropogenic global warming will more than offset that cooling for quite some time. . dave souza, talk 04:06, 10 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

@John2510 (talk · contribs) Despite my requests that you discuss content of reliable sources you keep standing on your soapbox. This thread should probably be collapsed because per WP:TALK we don't use them to hold forums for pontification. So please discuss RS content and how it can improve the article. (Third or 4th request). NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 07:48, 10 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

There's a catch-22 with reliable sources here. Any source that varies from your narrow view is wrong as it differs from the overwhelming consensus of professionals whose livelihood depends on expanding concern about climate change, and wrong things clearly cannot be reliable. See what I mean? That's why I've stuck with your accepted chart as a source. Here's an idea, let's start out with the statement, "Global warming has remained flat over the last ten years, and global temperatures actually went down between 2001 and 2102 (see nice chart). However, .... " and then you can fill in whatever Hiroshimo scare tactic references you like? Let the reader decide. Trust them to read for themselves and make their own decisions. Let's do that instead of trying to protect the casual reader from being mislead by truth and reason. John2510 (talk) 23:56, 10 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

My only point was the presented info does not match the intro. How that observation can be categorised as “original research” when it refers to the internal consistency of a page and how that internal inconsistency disappears by virtue of the fact there are plausible explanations of the hiatus elsewhere, I don’t fully understand. A time series with a flat lining 5 year moving average is not showing continuing change, you don’t have to be George Box to figure that out. It is just bizarre to claim a continuing change if the graphs on the same page don’t show it. If I altered it without discussing it first you'd delete my edits so I merely pointed out there is a mismatch. So either different data should be presented or the intro should change. Otherwise one gets the situation that got me here, people referring to “continuing climate change” and presenting a flat-lining graph as evidence. I am not a climate change skeptic but I am beginning to understand John's position!! (Sorry I missed the sarcasm before BTW)Tullimonstrum (talk) 14:09, 10 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Yes, that's a good point and reflects the confusion caused by short term noise or cyclical changes obscuring the longer term trend. Possible options: show a graph based on Cowtan and Way's study allowing for the faster-warming Arctic, or superimpose longer trends on the surface temperature graph at the head of the page. We could show File:Enso-global-temp-anomalies.png but that really needs explanation and context so it's probably better where it is. Any other ideas? . . dave souza, talk 16:10, 10 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

[2] For a simple option... HADCRUT4 with 10 year moving average. Sailsbystars (talk) 16:41, 10 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Simple yes, but it is a bit of a cheat to generate an apparent change by widening the window of the moving average. Surely better to source one of the corrected time series or remove "continuing" or concede there is a *apparent* hiatus and suggest possible explanations.Tullimonstrum (talk) 17:26, 10 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

How is that a cheat? The point of the first illustration in the article should be to illustrate long term temperature trends, we can follow that with detail of shorter term fluctuations and discussion of how that can give the impression of a so-called hiatus. . . dave souza, talk

e/c

John's remarks address a graph of SURFACE temps
In this thread's opening post the OP opined, "strong evidence for warming after 1998 is currently lacking and no empirical evidence for warming post 1998 is shown on the page", which is an RS free statement of personal opinion that is polar opposite what the sources say, since >90% of warming goes in the sea.
Suggestion -

(A) Move the temp anomaly pic in the lead (to where I don't know)

(B) In its place add the image of total heat content (see thumbnail in this thread); for more info on that graph click the thumbnail to go to the image page

While I appreciate Sailsbystars suggestion (that's a nice rendering) I strongly think we should add something with ocean heat content, whether it is the one I found or some other better one.

NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 17:43, 10 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Wow... Since the chart doesn't support your POV, you want to move it someplace less obvious? Amazing. Simply amazing. John2510 (talk) 23:59, 10 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

The introductory graph on this page surely must reflect the primary observations (i.e. some sort of temperature time series) rather than model outputs (i.e. estimated total heat content). If the former shows a hiatus, so be it, or use corrected data suitably justified. Do it any other way is setting the cart before the horse. As in all science the only truth we know for sure, is what the data says. Tullimonstrum (talk) 10:26, 11 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

@Tullimonstrum (talk · contribs) in this thread, we have noted (and RS content backs this up) that the first graph in the article is about SURFACE temps; that >90% of global warming's energy goes into the sea; we have referred you to RSs cited in Global warming hiatus, and to a Jeff Master's article talking about issues with the surface temp graph related to arctic data analysis. Unless I missed it, I don't think you have specifically discussed the content in any RSs. I think you've just been looking at the graph, and have been floating questions based on what you think you see in that graph. Well, OK. Question As far as your concerned, can we close this thread or do you still have a pending suggestion for article improvement based on RS content (and if so, please re-state your suggestion with discussion of the RS content on which it is based). NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 11:25, 11 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

The text says the "continuing rise in the average temperature of Earth", the nearest graph does not show that (nor in fact does the NOAA one). This isn't about sources but internal consistency. But if you want sources about why the hiatus might not just

a) be an artifact

b) solely be caused by southern oscillation caused deep water heat sequestration

just read anything by Mike Lockwood (not sure, I agree his timing works though). But the point is that the intro of the article must surely reflect the actual patterns in the presented data. No detached observer could look at the first graph and say "yep, that is a ongoing continuing rise". But I accept that this apparently bizarre controversial opinion is in a minority here so I will give up. Tullimonstrum (talk) 14:36, 13 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Evidently the first graph gives a misleading impression, so that reinforces the need for a clearer graph in that place. One possibility is the image of total heat content as shown above. We could then note the various fluctuations in surface temps, and mention the short term "hiatus" in that context, not sure if that's worthwhile in the lead. . dave souza, talk 16:26, 13 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

What's unclear about the NOAA chart? Would it have been unclear if the numbers hadn't leveled off? John2510 (talk) 14:23, 15 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

New GW Article "Climate Resilience"

Please visit and comment at Talk:Climate_resilience#Scope of article "Climate resilience" vs "Adaptation to global warming" NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 16:45, 8 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

Sentence and Citation to Number of Scientific Entities that Support Consensus

I propose adding the following sentence both to the intro section of the article and also separately to the lower down "scientific discussion" section.

"Nearly 200 worldwide scientific organizations hold the position that climate change has been caused by human action."

The citation is here: http://opr.ca.gov/s_listoforganizations.php

In that citation, the California Governor's Office of Planning and Research lists 197 organizations, and provides links to their websites. Unfortunately, the links are not to the specific parts of the websites where they evidence their support, but in my view the original page should be trusted as an authoritative statement, due to the scrutiny such an office would face for posting such a statement and list on this topic. I believe citing this number adds to users' understanding of the topic, because while the current version talks about the percentage-support in the literature, it does not discuss the number of important organizations that support this view. Please let me know your response and if the answer is yes, edit the page accordingly.

Thank you.

TheDumbMoney (talk) 01:59, 17 May 2014 (UTC)TheDumbMoney[reply]

Hi Money, thanks for the link and suggestion. Initially I was in favor, but now I'm dubious because the source doesn't tell us what filter they use for "scientific organization"? I mean, gee.... the Dept of Biology at University of Nevada is a "scientific organization" aren't they? If they had a position on climate change (and I have no idea if that is true) then would they be eligible for inclusion on this list? Question Noting that we already link to Scientific opinion on climate change, do you think our related text here could be improved somehow? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 06:49, 17 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

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I am sorry, I do not yet know how to do the indent. Looking at the list, the filter is two categories only. 1) Country-specific organizations associated with a whole country and/or sponsored by its government (e.g., Royal Irish Academy); or 2) nationwide or worldwide field-specific associations of scientists (e.g., American Anthropological Association). In other words, the list is limited to the largest groups. This corresponds with the "scientific body of national or international standing" language in the Scientific Opinion on Climate Change article. In other words, the OPR in California is plainly attempting to create a long list, but it is being rather conservative about it, excluding things like the Department of Biology at University of Nevada, because while I'm sure whatever department that is is great, it is not a scientific organization of national or international standing. One way to re-write my original text that might be better and respond to your valid critique is: "By one list, nearly 200 scientific bodies of national or international standing hold the position that climate change has been caused by human action." Using the same citation. What strikes me is that the current "scientific discussion" section in the article talks wholly in terms of percentages, and does not attempt to put a total number of any kind on the status of scientific opinion among organizations. My revision above would qualify the finality of the list, while providing such a service, at least as a placeholder until more data could be found. TheDumbMoney (talk) 17:48, 17 May 2014 (UTC)TheDumbMoney[reply]

CO2 Levels 20M Years Ago vs. Today

When educating those people not convinced that human activity is the root cause of global warming, the following 2 sentences from this Wikipedia entry are being constantly referenced as some kind of proof that whatever took place 20M years ago may well be happening today. (Please see quote from article below). Please, would someone with a better understanding of what exactly took place 20M years ago and why that phenomenon is not repeating itself today add something here to make the narrative a bit smoother.

"... (CO2) levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores.[75][76][77][78] Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO2 values higher than this were last seen about 20 million years ago"

Cheers! Meishern (talk) 08:02, 18 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

I think the intent is to say there is a direct record (air bubbles) going back X years, and geologic proxy record going even further back; That the air bubbles in the direct record have lower CO2, and the most recent proxy records of around 400ppm CO2 are about 20M years ago. It doesn't seem to say anything else to me, so I don't really understand what you're asking. Did you leave out a citation to something that discusses all this? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 08:30, 18 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

The objection is not clear, but my guess is that the objector wants the statement of fact to include an additional statement explaining how scientists know the current global temperature anomaly is not due to thew same mechanisms that occurred "20 million years ago." If my guess is correct, then the additional statement is not necessary: the entire article addresses how scientists know the current global temperature anomaly was caused and is caused by human activities. Desertphile (talk) 13:17, 24 May 2014 (UTC)[reply]

[Powell2019-1] Powell, James (20 November 2019). "Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming". Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 37 (4): 183–184. doi:10.1177/0270467619886266. S2CID 213454806. Retrieved 15 November 2020.

[WMO-FAQS-2] "Commission for Climatology Frequently Asked Questions". World Meteorological Organization. Archived from the original on 5 May 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020.

[3] Harris, Tom. "Scientists who work in the fields liberal arts graduate Al Gore wanders through contradict his theories about man-induced climate change". National Post. Archived from the original on 30 August 2011. Retrieved 11 January 2009 – via Solid Waste & Recycling. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; 4 February 2012 suggested (help)

[4] Arriola, Benj. "5 Good Arguments Why GlobalWarming is NOT due to Man-made Carbon Dioxide". Global Warming Awareness Blog. Retrieved 11 January 2009.

[5] Ahlbeck, Jarl. "Increase of the Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration due to Ocean Warming". Retrieved 11 January 2009.

[6] Kirby, Simon (11 April 2007). "Top scientist debunks global warming". Herald Sun. Retrieved 11 January 2009.

[7] Brahic, Catherine (16 May 2007). "Climate myths: Human CO2 emissions are too tiny to matter". New Scientist. Retrieved 11 January 2009.

[8] "More Notes on Global Warming". Physics Today. May 2005. Retrieved 10 September 2007.

[9] Battle, M.; et al. (2000). "Global Carbon Sinks and Their Variability Inferred from Atmospheric O2 and d13C". Science. 287 (5462): 2467–2470. doi:10.1126/science.287.5462.2467.

[10] The Royal Society (2005). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide". Retrieved 9 May 2012.

[11] "Met Office: Climate averages". Met Office. Archived from the original on 24 February 2009. Retrieved 23 January 2009.

[12] Climate Central (18 January 2017). "2016 Was the Hottest Year on Record". Climate Central. Retrieved 1 February 2017.

[13] The Saga of Erik the Red, 1880, English translation by J. Sephton, from the original Eiríks saga rauða.

[14] "Cold Hard Facts". Tamino. 8 January 2009. Retrieved 21 January 2009.^{[dead link]}

[15] Peterson, T. C.; et al. (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 89 (9): 1325. Bibcode:2008BAMS...89.1325P. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1.

[16] Gwynne, Peter (28 April 1975). "The Cooling World". Newsweek. p. 64.

[17] Verger, Rob (23 May 2014). "Newsweek Rewind: Debunking Global Cooling". Newsweek.

[18] Gwynne, Peter (21 May 2014). "My 1975 'Cooling World' Story Doesn't Make Today's Climate Scientists Wrong". insidescience.org.

[19] Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.

[20] Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says (page 2)". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.

[21] Marcus, Philip; Shetty, Sushil; Asay-Davis, Xylar (November 2006). Velocities and Temperatures of Jupiter's Great Red Spot and the New Red Oval and Implications for Global Climate Change. American Physical Society. Retrieved 9 May 2007.

[22] Goudarzi, Sara (4 May 2006). "New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change". Space.com. Retrieved 9 May 2007.

[23] Philip, Marcus S. (22 April 2004). "Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter" (PDF). Nature. 428 (6985): 828–831. Retrieved 9 May 2007.

[24] Yang, Sarah (21 April 2004). "Researcher predicts global climate change on Jupiter as giant planet's spots disappear". University of California, Berkeley. Retrieved 9 May 2007.

[25] Elliot, J. L.; et al. (10 July 2003). "The recent expansion of Pluto's atmosphere". Nature (424): 165–168. doi:10.1038/nature01762.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)

[26] Foerster, Jim. "What's The Difference Between Private Weather Companies And The National Weather Service?". Forbes.

[27] Eilts, Mike (27 November 2018). "The Role of Weather—and Weather Forecasting—in Agriculture". DTN.

[28] "What do the CERN experiments tell us about global warming?". Skeptical Science. 2 September 2011.

[29] Brumfiel, Geoff (23 August 2011). "Cloud Formation May Be Linked to Cosmic Rays". Scientific American.

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@@ Line 297: / Line 297: @@
 ::The objection is not clear, but my guess is that the objector wants the statement of fact to include an additional statement explaining how scientists know the current global temperature anomaly is not due to thew same mechanisms that occurred "20 million years ago." If my guess is correct, then the additional statement is not necessary: the entire article addresses how scientists know the current global temperature anomaly was caused and is caused by human activities. [[User:Desertphile|Desertphile]] ([[User talk:Desertphile|talk]]) 13:17, 24 May 2014 (UTC)
-== Please fix it ==
-I have received many messages from various people who have objected to my use of this Wikipedia article as one of my sources in my public lectures and my YouTube videos. They all insist the article is seriously flawed and cannot be relied upon as an authoritative source. But I have examined the article (and related Wikipedia articles in the same and similar science venues regarding human-caused climate change) and I cannot spot any of these "many errors" I'm constantly told exist.
-Please, people who have told me the article is wrong: I have asked you all, many times each, to come here and fix the errors you insist exist in the article (but never tell me what the errors are). It is the civic duty for the people who spot a problem to fix that problem. What could be the hold-up? [[User:Desertphile|Desertphile]] ([[User talk:Desertphile|talk]]) 13:07, 24 May 2014 (UTC)