Paul the Octopus

Paul the Octopus

Paul in his tank, next to a football boot with the German flag colours
Other name(s)	"Paul" Oktopus Paul die Krake Pulpo Paul
Species	Octopus vulgaris
Sex	Male
Occupation	Exhibit Psychic Football Pundit 2008–2010
Known for	Preselecting boxes corresponding with the winners of Germany's football matches
Owner	Sea Life Centres (aquarium keeper: Oliver Walenciak)
Named after	A poem by Boy Lornsen, Der Tintenfisch Paul Oktopus

Paul the Octopus (reportedly hatched January 13, 2008 - October 26, 2010) was a common octopus from Weymouth, England, who lived in a tank at a commercial attraction, the Sea Life Centre in Oberhausen, Germany. Paul became internationally famous after his feeding behavior was used to correctly predict the winner of each of Germany's seven matches in the 2010 World Cup, as well as the outcome of the final match.

The prediction process was designed so that Paul was presented with two boxes containing food in the form of a mussel, each box marked on the outside with the flag of a national football team in an upcoming match. His choice of which mussel to eat first was interpreted as indicating his prediction of a win for the country whose flag was on that box. His selections were correct in four of Germany's six Euro 2008 matches, and in all seven of their matches in the 2010 World Cup. He also correctly selected a win for Spain against the Netherlands in the World Cup Final on 11 July by eating the mussel in the box with the Spanish flag on it. These predictions were 100% (8/8) correct for the 2010 World Cup and 86% (12/14) correct overall. The keeper at the aquarium states that Paul was not the same octopus that predicted the results for the 2008 UEFA European Football Championships. Paul was retired after the 2010 FIFA World Cup and died soon after.

Life

Paul was originally believed to have been hatched from an egg in January 2008 at the Sea Life Centre in Weymouth, Dorset, England, then moved to a tank at one of the chain's centres in Oberhausen, Germany. American cable television network ESPN reported claims made in a Bild article (later republished by the Italian press) that Paul the Octopus had been caught in April 2010, by Verena Bartsch, off the island of Elba.

His name derives from the title of a poem by the German children's writer Boy Lornsen: Der Tintenfisch Paul Oktopus.

According to DPA, local businessmen in O Carballiño, a town in Galicia, Spain, collectively raised around €30,000 as a "transfer fee" to have Paul as the main attraction of the local Festa do Polbo festival. Manuel Pazo, a fisherman and head of the local business club made assurances that Paul would be presented alive in a tank and not on the menu. Sea Life Centres rejected the offer nonetheless.

After accusations of betrayal by the German newspaper Westfälische Rundschau, the Spanish prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero jokingly said he would send a team of bodyguards to protect Paul, while the environment minister Elena Espinosa said she would give Paul protection under conservation laws so that Germans do not eat him.

Career

The two plastic boxes which were presented to Paul. The food items are visible in the left-hand corners.

It was at first claimed that Paul's career as an oracle began during the UEFA Euro 2008 tournament. In the lead-up to Germany's international football matches, Paul was presented with two clear plastic boxes, each containing food: a mussel or an oyster. Each container was marked with the flag of a team, one the flag of Germany, and the other the flag of Germany's opponent. The box which Paul opened first (and ate the contents of) was judged to be the predicted winner of the game.

Paul's apparent success was considered to be comparable to a run of luck when tossing a coin. This connection has been made by Professor Chris Budd of the University of Bath, Professor David Spiegelhalter of Cambridge University, and Etienne Roquain of Pierre and Marie Curie University in Paris.

Under the hypothesis that Paul was equally likely to choose the winner or the loser of a match, and neglecting the possibility of a draw, he had a 1/2 chance of predicting any single result and a 1/256 chance of predicting eight in a row. Spiegelhalter and Roquain point out that there are "other animals that have attempted but failed to predict the outcome of football matches"; it is not remarkable that one animal is more successful than the others (including humans), and only the successful animals gain public attention after the fact.

Potential biases

Germany (11)

Spain (2)

Serbia (1)

Flags picked by Paul

Paul the octopus took part in a blind experiment, albeit under intense media scrutiny, to predict the outcome of football matches. Statistical hypothesis testing would not support the suggestion that Paul's choices were due to chance. It is necessary, in evaluating the claim that Paul had access to information about future events, known as precognition, that bias did not influence Paul. Etienne Roquain admitted that chance was not necessarily the only explanation for Paul's choices. He could have been choosing boxes systematically—if not on the basis of football expertise, then perhaps on his attraction to the countries' flags or the food items offered.

The species Octopus vulgaris is almost certainly color blind; neither behavioral studies nor electroretinogram experiments show any discrimination of a color's hue. In this case, individuals would still be able to distinguish brightness as well as an object's size, shape, and orientation. Shelagh Malham, research lecturer at the School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University, states that they are drawn to horizontal shapes. Whilst forwarded as a possible bias, there were horizontal lines/shapes on flags that he chose, and on flags that he did not choose. Daniel Fey, an Sea Life Aquarium spokesman suggested that Paul was confused by the similarities between the German and Spanish flags; this was on 6 July, when Fey expressed hope that Paul's latest pick would be wrong.

Matthew Fuller, the senior aquarist at the Weymouth park, judged the flag-shape theory to be plausible: "[Octopuses] are the most intelligent of all the invertebrates and studies have shown they are able to distinguish shapes and patterns so maybe he's able to recognise flags." Vyacheslav Bisikov, a Russian biologist, agrees that it is possible for an octopus to become attracted to a striped flag. Pascal Coutant, director of the La Rochelle Aquarium states: "It's complete chance that guides his choices."

Octopus vulgaris is also equipped with sensitive chemoreceptors on its tentacles, which are used to taste food and smell the water. Biologist Volker Miske, of the University of Greifswald, suggests that minor chemical differences on the surface of each box might account for Paul's decisions. Bisikov states that Paul could be easily trained to choose the right box by smell – though of course the "right" box is not apparent until after the match is competed, whereas all Paul's predictions are made before the match begins. According to Paul's keepers, there are holes in the jars to help him choose - although his choices were all made before each match began and while the result was not known.

Another potential bias may have been spatial preference or related factors such as light intensity. On six out of eight predictions for the World Cup the octopus chose the right-hand box (from the camera point of view), skipping the boxes with the Australian and, later, English flags. On three out of seven predictions, the German flag was on the right-hand box, with it being the left-hand box for matches with Australia, Serbia, England and Spain – all correctly predicted by Paul, with Germany winning two and losing two. Paul's keepers put the first team as officially listed by FIFA in the left-hand box, the second team listed by FIFA in the right-hand box, for all predictions.

Theories to explain his behavior could have been systematically tested if Paul had repeated his selection many times, but he only selected one box per game. A scientific experiment would have been more vigilant about possible sources of bias, including the flag visuals and potential differences in the preparation of the food.

Results

UEFA Euro 2008

Teams	Stage	Date	Prediction	Result	Outcome
Germany vs Poland	Group stage	8 June	Germany	2–0	Correct
Croatia vs Germany	Group stage	12 June	Germany	2–1	Incorrect
Austria vs Germany	Group stage	16 June	Germany	0–1	Correct
Portugal vs Germany	Quarter-finals	19 June	Germany	2–3	Correct
Germany vs Turkey	Semi-finals	25 June	Germany	3–2	Correct
Germany vs Spain	Final	29 June	Germany	0–1	Incorrect

In UEFA Euro 2008, Paul correctly predicted the outcome of 4 out of 6 of Germany's matches. He failed to predict their defeats by Croatia in the group stage, and by Spain in the championship's final. Some later sources wrongly reported his success rate at 80%.

2010 FIFA World Cup

Teams	Stage	Date	Prediction	Result	Outcome
Germany vs Australia	Group stage	13 June	Germany	4–0	Correct
Germany vs Serbia	Group stage	18 June	Serbia	0–1	Correct
Ghana vs Germany	Group stage	23 June	Germany	0–1	Correct
Germany vs England	Round of 16	27 June	Germany	4-1	Correct
Argentina vs Germany	Quarter-finals	3 July	Germany	0–4	Correct
Germany vs Spain	Semi-finals	7 July	Spain	0–1	Correct
Uruguay vs Germany	3rd place play-off	10 July	Germany	2–3	Correct
Netherlands vs Spain	Final	11 July	Spain	0–1	Correct

Paul picks Germany over Uruguay on 9 July 2010

Paul predicted the winners of each of the seven 2010 World Cup matches that the German team played, against Australia, Serbia, Ghana, England, Argentina, Spain, and Uruguay. His prediction that Argentina would lose prompted Argentine chef Nicolas Bedorrou to post an octopus recipe on Facebook. Paul's keeper, Oliver Walenciak, responded by saying "There are always people who want to eat our octopus but he is not shy and we are here to protect him as well. He will survive."

Paul picks Spain over the Netherlands on 9 July 2010

Paul correctly predicted the outcome of the semi-final, by choosing the food in the box marked with the Spanish flag. German supporters drew hope from his incorrect choice for the Germany versus Spain match in the UEFA Euro 2008 but were disappointed. The prediction led to death threats as German fans called for Paul to be cooked and eaten. In response, Spanish prime minister José Zapatero jokingly offered to send Paul official state protection, and the Industry Minister Miguel Sebastián called for Paul to be given safe haven in Spain. Paul maintained a 100% accurate record during the tournament by correctly predicting Spain's victory over the Netherlands in the final (beating several rival animal psychics, most notably Mani the Parakeet who incorrectly predicted that the Netherlands would beat Spain) as well as Germany's win over Uruguay in the third-place playoff, and subsequently went into retirement.

Odds

Assuming Paul's predictions were no better than fair independent coin flips, the probability of at least 12 successful predictions from 14 attempts is p = 0.0065, or 0.65%. (154 to 1). And the probability of his 8 successful World Cup predictions out of 8 attempts is 1/2⁸ = 0.0039, or 0.39% (256 to 1). The first three matches were in the group stage where the outcome could have been a win, loss, or draw, resulting in a less than 50% probability of getting the result correct. Assuming a probability of 33.3% in 6 out of 14 matches instead, the probability for 12 or more successes can be simulated numerically to be 0.11% (corresponding to 3.2 standard deviations in gaussian statistics).

Paul started to receive international recognition after he correctly predicted Germany's win over England; after that he made four correct predictions. The chance of those final four predictions being correct is 1/2⁴ = 6.25% (odds 16 to 1).

José Mérida, a data analyst from Guatemala City, used a coin tossing model to calculate that only 178 individuals are needed to have someone correctly predict all the winners from a series of 8 matches; and points out that there were certainly thousands and thousands of individuals all over the world attempting to make these predictions during the 2010 World Cup.

Public reaction

Paul and his predictions have been spoofed by various segments of the media from across the world. On the web, applications and websites exist that support and spoof Paul. A website called Paul Predicts went online soon after the World Cup. Another popular application called Pulpo Paul went online soon after the World Cup. A song for Paul was made on YouTube and was played on CNN when they did a report on Paul.

Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad criticized Paul several times during a speech in Tehran, which took place in the weekend of 24–25 July 2010. Ahmadinejad accused the West of using the octopus to spread "western propaganda and superstition," and lamented western decadence.

Retirement and ambassadorship

On 12 July 2010, Paul was retired from making predictions. Paul's owners stated "He won't give any more oracle predictions – either in football, or in politics, lifestyle or economy. Paul will get back to his former job, namely making children laugh." As a reward for his accurate predictions, aquarium staff presented him with his very own replica World Cup trophy garnished with his favourite food – mussels.

On 20 August 2010, Paul was given the position as an official "ambassador" to England's 2018 World Cup bid.

Death

It was expected that Paul would die before the UEFA Euro 2012, as common octopuses live on average no more than two years. After the 2010 World Cup, Paul's owner Julie McDee said there would be no more predictions, effectively sending him into retirement.

On 26 October 2010, Paul died in his aquarium in Germany. His remains were cremated and he was given a small burial plot within the grounds of the Oberhausen Sea Life Centre. A modest permanent shrine was erected.

Paul's agent, Chris Davies, said "It's a sad day, Paul was rather special, but we managed to film [him] before he left this mortal earth."

Similar oracles

Main article: Oracular animal

Some other oracles did not fare so well in the World Cup. The animals at the Chemnitz Zoo in Germany were wrong on all of Germany's group-stage games, with Leon the porcupine picking Australia, Petty the pygmy hippopotamus spurning Serbia's apple-topped pile of hay, Jimmy the Peruvian guinea-pig and Anton the tamarin eating a raisin representing Ghana. Mani the Parakeet of Singapore, Octopus Pauline of Holland, Octopus Xiaoge of Qingdao China, Chimpanzee Pino and Red River Hog Apelsin in Tallinn zoo Estonia picked the Netherlands to win the final. Crocodile Harry of Australia picked Spain to win.

See also

• Cephalopod intelligence
• Ollie the Octopus

Further reading

• "Paul's picking Spain". The Daily Gleaner. Berlin: Brunswick News. 10 July 2010. p. B4. Retrieved 10 July 2010.
• Mucientes, Esther (8 July 2010), "¡Cuidado con abusar de Paul!", elmundo.es (in Spanish), retrieved 11 July 2010, Alfredo Salazar guesses that Paul is being influenced by his keepers
• "El CSIC advierte: El pulpo Paul eligió a España 'por casualidad'", Servimedia (in Spanish), 9 July 2010, retrieved 11 July 2010, Ángel Guerra comments on food condition and flags; mentions that the Netherlands flag is striking but not chosen; alleges that Paul is not the same octopus from 2008, which should already be dead
• Grix, Stéphanie (11 July 2010), "Ich bin die Mutter vom WM-Orakel Paul", Bild (in German), retrieved 11 July 2010, Verena Bartsch comes forward with a different life history for Paul. In support, Rainer Kaiser says the maximum lifespan of a male is 16 months.
• Paul inspires another octopus, Pauline Times LIVE, 9 July 2010
• "El pulpo Paul" (PDF), Prensa Libre (pg.19) (in Spanish), 15 July 2010, retrieved 17 July 2010, José Mérida uses a coin tossing model to explain how Paul's amazing feat is actually quite predictable.
• "Mahmoud Ahmadinejad attacks Octopus Paul". Telegraph. 27 July 2010. Retrieved 27 July 2010. the Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused the octopus of spreading "western propaganda and superstition"
• "Paul the Octopus - an Obituary". 3 News. 27 October 2010. Retrieved 27 October 2010. Paul the Octopus – you made small children happy and grown men laugh like fools.