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This article appeared on Wikipedia's Main Page as Today's featured article on June 21, 2006.

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This article has been mentioned by multiple media organizations:

Sarah McBroom (March 27, 2007). "Conservapedia.com -- an encyclopedic message from the right". Scripps Howard News Service.
Michael Booth (April 30, 2007). "Grading Wikipedia". The Denver Post.
Lawrence Solomon (July 8, 2008). "Wikipropaganda On Global Warming". CBS News.

This page is not a forum for general discussion about Climate change. Any such comments may be removed or refactored. Please limit discussion to improvement of this article. You may wish to ask factual questions about Climate change at the Reference desk.

Discussions on this page often lead to previous arguments being restated. Please read recent comments, look in the archives, and review the FAQ before commenting.

faq page

Frequently asked questions

To view an answer, click the [show] link to the right of the question. To view references used by an answer, you must also click the [show] for references at the bottom of the FAQ.

Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on climate change?

A1: Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. This scientific consensus is supported by over 99% of publishing climate scientists.^[1]

Q2: How can we say climate change is real when it's been so cold in such-and-such a place?

A2: This is why it is termed "global warming", not "(such-and-such a place) warming". Even then, what rises is the average temperature over time – that is, the temperature will fluctuate up and down within the overall rising trend. To give an idea of the relevant time scales, the standard averaging period specified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 30 years. Accordingly, the WMO defines climate change as "a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)."^[2]

Q3: Can't the increase of CO₂ be from natural sources, like volcanoes or the oceans?

A3: While these claims are popular among global warming skeptics,^[3]^[4] including academically trained ones,^[5]^[6] they are incorrect. This is known from any of several perspectives:

Current human emissions of CO₂ are at least 100 times larger than volcanic emissions. Measurements of CO₂ levels over the past 50 years do not show any significant rises after eruptions.^[7] This is easily seen in a graph of CO₂ concentrations over the past 50 years: the strongest eruption during the period, that of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, produced no increase in the trend.
Isotopic analysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide shows the observed change in the ratio of carbon isotopes reflects the isotopic ratios in fossil fuels.^[8]
Atmospheric oxygen content is decreasing at a rate that agrees with the amount of oxygen being used to burn fossil fuels.^[9]
If the oceans were giving up some of their carbon dioxide, their carbon dioxide concentration would have to decrease. But instead we are measuring an increase in the oceans' carbon dioxide concentration, resulting in the oceans becoming more acidic (or in other words, less basic).^[10]

Q4: I think the article is missing some things, or has some things wrong. Can I change it?

A4: Yes. Keep in mind that your points need to be based on documented evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, or other information that meets standards of verifiability, reliability, and no original research. If you do not have such evidence, more experienced editors may be able to help you find it (or confirm that such evidence does not exist). You are welcome to make such queries on the article's talk page but please keep in mind that the talk page is for discussing improvements to the article, not discussing the topic. There are many forums that welcome general discussions of global warming, but the article talk page is not such a forum.

Q5: Why haven't the graphs been updated?

A5: Two reasons:

There are many images used in the articles related to global warming, and there are many reasons why they may not be updated with the latest data. Some of the figures, like the Global Warming Map, are static, meaning that they are intended to show a particular phenomenon and are not meant to be updated frequently or at all. Others, like the Instrumental Temperature Record and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent Anomalies, use yearly data and thus are updated once per year—usually in mid- to late-January, depending upon when the data is publicly released, and when a volunteer creates the image. Still others, like Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide, use monthly data. These are updated semi-regularly.
However, just because an image is 6 months or a year old does not mean it is useless. Robert A. Heinlein is credited with saying, "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", meaning that climate is defined as a long-term average of weather, usually about 30 years. This length was chosen to eliminate the year-to-year variations.^[11] Thus, in terms of climate change, any given year's data is of little import.

Q6: Isn't climate change "just a theory"?

A6: People who say this are abusing the word "theory" by conflating its common meaning with its scientific meaning. In common usage, "theory" can mean a hunch or guess, but a scientific theory, roughly speaking, means a coherent set of explanations that is compatible with observations and that allows predictions to be made. That the temperature is rising is an observation. An explanation for this (also known as a hypothesis) is that the warming is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (such as CO₂ and methane) released into the atmosphere by human activity. Scientific models have been built that predict the rise in temperature and these predictions have matched observations. When scientists gain confidence in a hypothesis because it matches observation and has survived intense scrutiny, the hypothesis may be called a "theory". Strictly speaking, scientific theories are never proven, but the degree of confidence in a theory can be discussed. The scientific models now suggest that it is "extremely likely" (>95%) to "virtually certain" (>99%) that the increases in temperature have been caused by human activity as discussed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Global warming via greenhouse gases by human activity is a theory (in the scientific sense), but it is most definitely not just a hunch or guess.

Q7: Does methane cause more warming than CO₂?

A7: It's true that methane is more potent molecule for molecule. But there's far less of it in the atmosphere, so the total effect is smaller. The atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO₂ (hundreds to thousands of years), so when methane emissions are reduced the concentration in the atmosphere soon falls, whereas CO₂ accumulates in the atmosphere over long periods. For details see the greenhouse gas and global warming potential articles.

Q8: How can you say there's a consensus when lists of "skeptical scientists" have been compiled?

A8: Consensus is not the same as unanimity, the latter of which is impractical for large groups. Over 99% of publishing climate scientists agree on anthropogenic climate change.^[1] This is an extremely high percentage well past any reasonable threshold for consensus. Any list of "skeptical scientists" would be dwarfed by a comparably compiled list of scientists accepting anthropogenic climate change.

Q9: Did climate change end in 1998?

A9: One of the strongest El Niño events in the instrumental record occurred during late 1997 through 1998, causing a spike in global temperature for 1998. Through the mid-late 2000s this abnormally warm year could be chosen as the starting point for comparisons with later years in order to produce a cooling trend; choosing any other year in the 20th century produced a warming trend. This no longer holds since the mean global temperatures in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998.^[12] More importantly, scientists do not define a "trend" by looking at the difference between two given years. Instead they use methods such as linear regression that take into account all the values in a series of data. The World Meteorological Organisation specifies 30 years as the standard averaging period for climate statistics so that year-to-year fluctuations are averaged out;^[2] thus, 10 years isn't long enough to detect a climate trend.

Q10: Wasn't Greenland much warmer during the period of Norse settlement?

A10: Some people assume this because of the island's name. In fact the Saga of Erik the Red tells us Erik named the new colony Greenland because "men will desire much the more to go there if the land has a good name."^[13] Advertising hype was alive and well in 985 AD.

While much of Greenland was and remains under a large ice sheet, the areas of Greenland that were settled by the Norse were coastal areas with fjords that, to this day, remain quite green. You can see the following images for reference:

A map of the Eastern Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A map of the Western Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A zoom in on the general area where the Brattahlíð (Erik the Red's farm) and Garðar farms were located

Q11: Are the IPCC reports prepared by biased UN scientists?

A11: The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and it has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by various organizations including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties.

Q12: Hasn't global sea ice increased over the last 30 years?

A12: Measurements show that it has not.^[14] Claims that global sea ice amounts have stayed the same or increased are a result of cherry picking two data points to compare, while ignoring the real (strongly statistically significant) downward trend in measurements of global sea ice amounts.

Arctic sea ice cover is declining strongly; Antarctic sea ice cover has had some much smaller increases, though it may or may not be thinning, and the Southern Ocean is warming. The net global ice-cover trend is clearly downwards.

Q13: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that the Earth was cooling instead of warming?

A13: They weren't – see the article on global cooling. An article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has reviewed the scientific literature at that time and found that even during the 1970s the prevailing scientific concern was over warming.^[15] The common misperception that cooling was the main concern during the 1970s arose from a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, such as a short nine-paragraph article that appeared in Newsweek in 1975.^[16] (Newsweek eventually apologized for having misrepresented the state of the science in the 1970s.)^[17] The author of that article has repudiated the idea that it should be used to deny global warming.^[18]

Q14: Doesn't water vapour cause 98% of the greenhouse effect?

A14: Water vapour is indeed a major greenhouse gas, contributing about 36% to 70% (not 98%) of the total greenhouse effect. But water vapour has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days), compared with decades to centuries for greenhouse gases like CO₂ or nitrous oxide. As a result it is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, which globally maintains a nearly constant relative humidity. In simpler terms, any excess water vapour is removed by rainfall, and any deficit of water vapour is replenished by evaporation from the Earth's surface, which literally has oceans of water. Thus water vapour cannot act as a driver of climate change.

Rising temperatures caused by the long-lived greenhouse gases will however allow the atmosphere to hold more vapour. This will lead to an increase in the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Since water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, this is an example of a positive feedback. Thus, whereas water vapour is not a driver of climate change, it amplifies existing trends.

Q15: Is the fact that other solar system bodies are warming evidence for a common cause (i.e. the sun)?

A15: While some solar system bodies show evidence of local or global climate change, there is no evidence for a common cause of warming.

A 2007 National Geographic article described the views of Khabibullo Abdusamatov, who claims that the sun is responsible for global warming on both Earth and Mars.^[19] Abdussamatov's views have no support in the scientific community, as the second page of the National Geographic article makes clear: "'His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion,' said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University. [...] Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that 'the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations.'"^[20]
There is no reliable source claiming that Jupiter is warming. However, observations of the Red Spot Jr. storm suggest Jupiter could be in a period of global climate change.^[21]^[22] This is hypothesized to be part of an approximately 70 year global climate cycle, characterized by the relatively rapid forming and subsequent slow erosion and merging of cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices that help transfer heat between Jupiter's poles and equator. The cycle works like this: As the vortices erode, heat exchange is reduced; this makes the poles cool down and the equatorial region heat up; the resulting temperature difference destabilizes the atmosphere, leading to the creation of new vortices.^[23]^[24]
Pluto has an extremely elliptical orbit with a period of about 248 years. Data are sparse, but two data points from 1988 and 2002 indirectly suggest that Pluto warmed between those two dates.^[25] Pluto's temperature is heavily influenced by its elliptical orbit – it was closest to the sun in 1989 and has slowly receded since. Because of thermal inertia, it is expected to warm for a while after it passes perihelion (similar to how a sunny day's warmest temperatures happen during the afternoon instead of right at noon). No other mechanism has so far been seriously suggested. Here is a reasonable summary, and this paper discusses how the thermal inertia is provided by sublimation and evaporation of parts of Pluto's atmosphere. A more popular account is here and in Wikipedia's own article.

Q16: Do scientists support climate change just to get more money?

A16: No,

Scientists participate in international organizations like the IPCC as part of their normal academic duties. They do not receive any extra compensation beyond possibly for direct expenses.
Scientific grants do not usually award any money to a scientist personally, only towards the cost of his or her scientific work.
There is not a shortage of useful things that scientists could study if they were not studying global warming.
- Understanding our climate system better brings benefits independent of global warming. For instance, more accurate weather predictions save a lot of money (on the order of billions of dollars a year), and everyone from insurance agents to farmers wants climate data.^[26]^[27] Scientists could get paid to study climate even if global warming did not exist.

Q17: Doesn't the climate vary even without human activity?

A17: It does, but the fact that natural variation occurs does not mean that human-induced change cannot also occur. Climate scientists have extensively studied natural causes of climate change (such as orbital changes, volcanism, and solar variation) and have ruled them out as an explanation for the current temperature increase. Human activity is the cause at the 95 to 99 percent confidence level (see the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for details). The high level of certainty in this is important to keep in mind to spot mention of natural variation functioning as a distraction.

Q18: Should we include the view that climate change will lead to planetary doom or catastrophe?

A18: This page is about the science of climate change. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe. For a technical explanation, see catastrophic climate change, and for paleoclimatic examples see PETM and great dying.

Q19: Is an increase in global temperature of, say, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) important?

A19: Though it may not sound like much, a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is huge in climate terms. For example, the sea level rise it would produce would flood coastal cities around the world, which include most large cities.

Earth's climate has varied significantly over geological ages. The question of an "optimal temperature" makes no sense without a clear optimality criterion. Over geological time spans, ecosystems adapt to climate variations. But global climate variations during the development of human civilization (i.e. the past 12,000 years) have been remarkably small. Human civilization is highly adapted to the current stable climate. Agricultural production depends on the proper combination of soil, climate, methods, and seeds. Most large cities are located on the coast, and any significant change in sea level would strongly affect them. Migration of humans and ecosystems is limited by political borders and existing land use. In short, the main problem is not the higher absolute temperature but the massive and unprecedentedly fast change in climate and the related effects on human societies. The IPCC AR6 WG2 report has a detailed discussion of the effects of rapid climate change.

Q20: Why are certain proposals to change the article discarded, deleted, or ignored? Who is/was Scibaby?

A20: Scibaby is/was a long term abusive sock-master (or coordinated group of sock masters) who has created 1,027 confirmed sock puppets, another 167 suspected socks, and probably many untagged or unrecognized ones. This page lists some recent creations. His modus operandi has changed over time, but includes proposing reasonably worded additions on the talk page that only on close examination turn out to be irrelevant, misinterpreted, or give undue weight to certain aspects. Scibaby is banned, and Scibaby socks are blocked as soon as they are identified. Some editors silently revert his additions, per WP:DENY, while others still assume good faith even for likely socks and engage them.

Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer-reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...?

A21: There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published every month in respected scientific journals such as Geophysical Research Letters, the Journal of Climate, and others. We can't include all of them, but the article does include references to individual papers where there is consensus that they best represent the state of the relevant science. This is in accordance with the "due weight" principle (WP:WEIGHT) of the Neutral point of view policy and the "Wikipedia is not an indiscriminate collection of information" principle (WP:IINFO) of the What Wikipedia is not policy.

Q22: Why does the article define "climate change" as a recent phenomenon? Hasn't the planet warmed and cooled before?

A22: Yes, the planet has warmed and cooled before. However, the term "climate change" without further qualification is widely understood to refer to the recent episode and often explicitly connected with the greenhouse effect. Per WP:COMMONNAME, we use the term in this most common meaning. The article Climate variability and change deals with the more general concept.

Q23: Did the CERN CLOUD experiment prove that climate change is caused not by human activity but by cosmic rays?

A23: No. For cosmic rays to be causing global warming, all of the following would have to be true, whereas only the italicized one was tested in the 2011 experiment:^[28]

Solar magnetic field must be getting stronger
The number of cosmic rays reaching Earth must be dropping
Cosmic rays must successfully seed clouds, which requires:

Cosmic rays must trigger aerosol (liquid droplet) formation,
These newly-formed aerosols must grow sufficiently through condensation to form cloud-condensation nuclei (CCN),
The CCN must lead to increased cloud formation, and
Cloud cover on Earth must be declining.

Perhaps the study's lead author, Jasper Kirkby, put it best: "...it [the experiment] actually says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate, but it's a very important first step."^[29]

Q24: I read that something can't fix climate change. Is this true?

A24: Yes, this is true for all plausible single things including: "electric cars", "planting trees", "low-carbon technology", "renewable energy", "Australia", "capitalism", "the doom & gloom approach", "a Ph.D. in thermodynamics". Note that it is problematic to use the word "fix" regarding climate change, as returning the climate to its pre-industrial state currently appears to be feasible only over a timeframe of thousands of years. Current efforts are instead aimed at mitigating (meaning limiting) climate change. Mitigation is strived for through the combination of many different things. See Climate change mitigation for details.

References

^ ^a ^b Powell, James (20 November 2019). "Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming". Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 37 (4): 183–184. doi:10.1177/0270467619886266. S2CID 213454806. Retrieved 15 November 2020.
^ ^a ^b "Commission for Climatology Frequently Asked Questions". World Meteorological Organization. Archived from the original on 5 May 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020.
^ Harris, Tom. "Scientists who work in the fields liberal arts graduate Al Gore wanders through contradict his theories about man-induced climate change". National Post. Archived from the original on 30 August 2011. Retrieved 11 January 2009 – via Solid Waste & Recycling. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; 4 February 2012 suggested (help)
^ Arriola, Benj. "5 Good Arguments Why GlobalWarming is NOT due to Man-made Carbon Dioxide". Global Warming Awareness Blog. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Ahlbeck, Jarl. "Increase of the Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration due to Ocean Warming". Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Kirby, Simon (11 April 2007). "Top scientist debunks global warming". Herald Sun. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Brahic, Catherine (16 May 2007). "Climate myths: Human CO2 emissions are too tiny to matter". New Scientist. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ "More Notes on Global Warming". Physics Today. May 2005. Retrieved 10 September 2007.
^ Battle, M.; et al. (2000). "Global Carbon Sinks and Their Variability Inferred from Atmospheric O2 and d13C". Science. 287 (5462): 2467–2470. doi:10.1126/science.287.5462.2467.
^ The Royal Society (2005). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide". Retrieved 9 May 2012.
^ "Met Office: Climate averages". Met Office. Archived from the original on 24 February 2009. Retrieved 23 January 2009.
^ Climate Central (18 January 2017). "2016 Was the Hottest Year on Record". Climate Central. Retrieved 1 February 2017.
^ The Saga of Erik the Red, 1880, English translation by J. Sephton, from the original Eiríks saga rauða.
^ "Cold Hard Facts". Tamino. 8 January 2009. Retrieved 21 January 2009.^{[dead link]}
^ Peterson, T. C.; et al. (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 89 (9): 1325. Bibcode:2008BAMS...89.1325P. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1.
^ Gwynne, Peter (28 April 1975). "The Cooling World". Newsweek. p. 64.
^ Verger, Rob (23 May 2014). "Newsweek Rewind: Debunking Global Cooling". Newsweek.
^ Gwynne, Peter (21 May 2014). "My 1975 'Cooling World' Story Doesn't Make Today's Climate Scientists Wrong". insidescience.org.
^ Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
^ Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says (page 2)". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
^ Marcus, Philip; Shetty, Sushil; Asay-Davis, Xylar (November 2006). Velocities and Temperatures of Jupiter's Great Red Spot and the New Red Oval and Implications for Global Climate Change. American Physical Society. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Goudarzi, Sara (4 May 2006). "New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change". Space.com. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Philip, Marcus S. (22 April 2004). "Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter" (PDF). Nature. 428 (6985): 828–831. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Yang, Sarah (21 April 2004). "Researcher predicts global climate change on Jupiter as giant planet's spots disappear". University of California, Berkeley. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Elliot, J. L.; et al. (10 July 2003). "The recent expansion of Pluto's atmosphere". Nature (424): 165–168. doi:10.1038/nature01762.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
^ Foerster, Jim. "What's The Difference Between Private Weather Companies And The National Weather Service?". Forbes.
^ Eilts, Mike (27 November 2018). "The Role of Weather—and Weather Forecasting—in Agriculture". DTN.
^ "What do the CERN experiments tell us about global warming?". Skeptical Science. 2 September 2011.
^ Brumfiel, Geoff (23 August 2011). "Cloud Formation May Be Linked to Cosmic Rays". Scientific American.

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/Terminology section /General discussion

This page has archives. Sections older than 21 days may be automatically archived by when more than 4 sections are present.

Add comparison shown in Scientific American's article The Last Great Global Warming by Lee R. Kump June 29, 2011.

Add comparison shown in Scientific American's article The Last Great Global Warming: Surprising new evidence suggests the pace of the earth's most abrupt prehistoric warm-up paled in comparison to what we face today. The episode has lessons for our future by Lee R. Kump June 29, 2011. Quotation example ...

Back then, around 56 million years ago, I would have been drenched with sweat rather than fighting off a chill. Research had indicated that in the course of a few thousand years—a mere instant in geologic time—global temperatures rose five degrees Celsius, marking a planetary fever known to scientists as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, or PETM. Climate zones shifted toward the poles, on land and at sea, forcing plants and animals to migrate, adapt or die. Some of the deepest realms of the ocean became acidified and oxygen-starved, killing off many of the organisms living there. It took nearly 200,000 years for the earth’s natural buffers to bring the fever down.

References include:

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum: A Perturbation of Carbon Cycle, Climate, and Biosphere with Implications for the Future. Francesca A. McInerney and Scott L. Wing in Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Vol. 39, pages 489-516; May 2011. 97.87.29.188 (talk) 20:33, 18 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]
America's Climate Choices. Committee on America's Climate Choices, United States National Research Council of the United States National Academies. The National Academies Press, 2011.
Slow Release of Fossil Carbon during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. Ying Cui et al. in Nature Geoscience (in press). 97.87.29.188 (talk) 20:43, 18 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Ignore -- that's my recommendation. This persistent poster has no understanding of reliable sources, nor WP:due weight, and likely not of the topic. Any evaluation of whether there might any value in linking to that article as explaining global warming needs to be done by someone who actually understands the topic. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 22:07, 18 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

What topic, Climate change denial? 108.73.114.77 (talk) 01:27, 19 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I don't know the poster, but I'm aware of the research and IMO it's very important work. If it's acceptable to discuss the use of models to project forward into time, this work is all about taking one of those very models and driving it back in time, while inputting data based on a very high-resolution analysis from a v-e-r-y long PETM mud core. Why is the use of a model going forward ok, but the use of a model going backward is not?

I do agree that the supplemental cites provided were frustrating. I have "America's Climate Choices" (anyone can get a free pdf) word searches for PETM and "thermal maximum" both come up empty. Please provide page reference.

As for the Ying Cui paper, a paper in press is not verifiable under wiki's rules. But in any case, the paper is NOT in press, it was published online on June 5. See news coverage and the journal citation is Ying, Cui (June 5, 2011). "Slow release of fossil carbon during the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum". Nature Geoscience. doi:10.1038/ngeo1179. {{cite journal}}: Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)

My thought is this is relevant. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 01:49, 19 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Certainly not relevant to this article - this is a top-level article, a summary of many different articles. This is detail, possibly relevant to Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, if not already covered there. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 01:57, 19 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Adaptability/Mitigation as a function (in part) of the rate of increase in CO2 and other GH gasses is a topic that screams across a large number of journal articles and scientific reports. What's the harm of including one sentence on point with a wiki link to the PETM article? Note that traffic analysis suggests omitting this insightful work from the current GW article is a reader disservice (ie token inclusion but burial nonetheless) on a very important topic (rate of increase). After all in May 2011, this page's daily views averaged around 13k whereas the PETM page averaged less than one hundred twenty.

Let's be clear, I'm not in favor of a lengthy discussion on this article.

I PROPOSE adding "Recent research suggests that the current rate of atmospheric buildup of CO2 is far greater than the rate of buildup at the time of the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum.cite-cite-cite I agree the details can go on the PETM page. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 02:18, 19 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

KimDabelstein, the SciAm article compares past global warming with current global warming. The two examples were a slower change than the current (rapid) global warming, so valuable here ... for example may alter projections of the so-called "Long-term effects of global warming" (after 2100) to a more near-term (mid-century). 108.73.114.77 (talk) 03:19, 19 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

That is User:KimDabelsteinPetersen. 99.190.81.244 (talk) 07:35, 21 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

The subtitle appears to be the descriptor of this article: "Surprising new evidence suggests the pace of the earth's most abrupt prehistoric warm-up paled in comparison to what we face today. The episode has lessons for our future". I'm having http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-last-great-global-warming access problems, is it not currently accessible? 216.250.156.66 (talk) 00:42, 22 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I works fine for me; it was probably only down for a little while when you tried it. --Connelly90[AlbaGuBràth] (talk) 08:49, 22 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Please clarify Connelly90 to who and what do you refer? 99.190.86.133 (talk) 05:32, 23 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I was reffering to the above IP saying they can't get access to the Scientific American article. --Connelly90[AlbaGuBràth] (talk) 10:06, 23 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I was able to fully access the SciAm article also. 97.87.29.188 (talk) 19:53, 23 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

From "In Brief":

Global temperature rose five degrees Celsius 56 million years ago in response to a massive injection of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. That intense gas release was only 10 percent of the rate at which heat-trapping greenhouse gases are building up in the atmosphere today. The speed of today’s rise is more troubling than the absolute magnitude, because adjusting to rapid climate change is very difficult.

See Wicked problem ... 99.181.134.19 (talk) 07:02, 8 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Proposed LEDE paragraph structure / outline

There have been several subsections addressing various complaints about the lead. Before we spend a great deal of time wordsmithing subsections, let's revisit the basic structure of the lead

See Wikipedia:Manual_of_Style_(lead_section) which states the lead should have no more than four paragraphs. Global warming is a broad topic, and IMO using four paragraphs is appropriate. Here's how I would like to see them arranged (not too different than today)

1. General intro and scientific consensus
2. Temp increase, past and projected
3. Implications of temp increases
4. Humanity's options (Both adapt-mitigate-geoengineering and policy initiatives)

~~That's not so different than what we have now, except 3 and 4 were combined.~~ (I later struck my own text)

Before we talk about streamlining, etc, is there some reason to structure the lede differently? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 02:02, 19 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

PS.... this version has my favorite first paragraph

For a second paragraph, we need a paragraph not a single inaccurate sentence. For example, the first half of this edit was not "fluff" as suggested in the version history. The deleted text in that edit comported with AR4, by omitting the qualifiers that could result in such a low (or high) number we changed the meaning. The edited text (currently in the first paragraph) does not comport with AR4 because we left that out. Instead, a person just reading this article's lede and nothing more, could walk away with the comfy feeling that we might get by with just 1-something C doing nothing. That's not what IPCC said. A person could discover that fact for themself by following one of the IPCC related links, but that's expecting a lot.... and if you do the traffic analysis, its expecting too much. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 14:02, 26 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

In addition, in response to one of Enescot's neutrality challenges above, I am going to propose adding a sentence about actual fossil fuel related emissions with respect to IPCC scenarios and this graphic on point.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 14:03, 26 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Here's what the lede should cover:

1 Definition of global warming and the scope of the article
2 Background and historical context of global warming and its relationship to other articles such as "climate science" and "climate change".
3 The key figures and the latest status: the current (as in last decade) & overall (as in last century) value and trend.
4 A summary of the article - summarising each section in a sentence

212.139.61.209 (talk) 09:24, 21 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I believe the outline mentioned by NewsAndEventsGuy has the fundamental structure needed by the lede. The point about AR4 qualifiers brought up by the editor above has merit as well. -- 64.79.54.5 (talk) 10:56, 26 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks, and sorry I forgot to sign my other comment you mentioned until now. Today I made some edits consistent with my remarks in this subsection.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 14:02, 26 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I think this verges on territory that equivocates AGW and global warming. Global warming as a scientific phenomena does occur. The presence of green house gases alone does increase the temperature of the planet. However, conceding that this results in a net gain in temperature has been almost abandoned, as the consensus appears to propagate the idea that the climate simply changes, and the result of these changes are unknown, but includes the possibility of a net global gain. As I understand the science, certain aspects of climate change will result in effects like melting poles, rising sea levels, etc. However the broad assertion that the climate is irrevocably changed due to human interaction should not be a topic within this article. Global warming consists of the proven phenomena that the release of greenhouse gases causes a gross gain in temperature, and that the net gain after accumulating feedbacks (both positive and negative) is uncertain. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Cflare (talk • contribs) 17:48, 12 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

C, as it currently stands, the physical concept of climate change in general (regardless of planet, geologic period, et cetera) is the subject of the wiki article climate change. The current episode of warming is the designated subject of the wiki article global warming. As for your understanding of the science, it is what you understand it to be, but article improvement ideas you may wish to contribute to this talk page will require verifiable citations. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 18:35, 12 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Include Planetary boundaries metric.

The current wp Planetary boundaries has for Control variables.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (ppm by volume)^[1]
Increase in radiative forcing (W/m²)

64.27.194.74 (talk) 18:30, 28 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Why? Planetary boundaries may be notable, but the particular "boundaries" selected (by us, apparently, rather than by the references) are not. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 23:27, 28 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Huh? I don't recognize the IP address, but this is the same tiresome comment we have seen before, most recently at Talk:Global warming/Archive 63. Enough, already. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 00:43, 30 June 2011 (UTC)[reply]

99.xxx.xxx.xxx ? 99.181.134.19 (talk) 07:05, 8 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

That is what I'd guess too ... JJ (Special:Contributions/J. Johnson)? 97.87.29.188 (talk) 19:48, 8 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

See continuing updating Planetary boundaries with two Control variable(s)

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (ppm by volume) ^[2] (See also Tipping point (climatology) ^[3]^[4]^[5]^[6]
Alternatively: Increase in radiative forcing (W/m²) since the start of the industrial revolution (~1750)

99.112.214.230 (talk) 01:34, 14 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Archive it as disruptive. The protagonists' posts (as opposed to the responses they got) are composed of nonsensical sentence fragments that fail to make any suggestions for improving the article. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 01:43, 14 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I concur. The request is just as nonsensical and unsupported as when it was last made (see Archive 63). Its repetition is tiresome, amounting to WP:tendentious editing, and a disruption of this talk page. Not only should this instance be closed, I suggest that any future iterations be closed without requiring further discussion. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 19:50, 14 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Recent changes

I have reverted this edit because it makes the article substantially worse.

Naturally occurring greenhouse gases have a collective mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F) - addition of the word "collective" is not an improvement; that's the default reading of the sentence. Makes the sentence clumsy, while adds nothing in meaning.
Since the industrial era began, humans have been changing the natural radiative balance with substantial implications for climate - this is covered in the following paragraph. Adding it here breaks the flow of this paragraph, while making the start of the following paragraph repetitive.
Molecule for molecule, the global warming potential of different greenhouse gases varies widely. - this sentence says nothing. It may be worth saying how the GW potential of these gases differ, but simply saying that they vary is just fluff. Guettarda (talk) 15:53, 3 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

As the editor of the reverted text, I disagree of course. I'm not wedded to my language if you can improve it, but I feel strongly that the article should do a better job of explaining the reasons behind my edits.

Take your complaints A and B. This was a single edit in my mind when I made the changes. Prior to my edit, the first paragraph simply talked about naturally occurring GHG-es. While the meaning of this might be clear to those of us who have been keeping up on the issue, it is certainly NOT clear to newbies. After all, it can - and is - argued by climate deniers that CO2 is naturally occurring and is therefore harmless, beneficial even, and so needs no regulation. My first edit (your complaint A and B) is intended to educate newbiews what "naturally occurring" means, i.e., natural-abundance-of-natural-stuff. The prior language, which merely said "naturally occurring", is ambiguous. You and I know there is an abundance aspect to the definition, but newbies don't. A newbie could easily read it to mean "stuff we didn't brew up in the laboratory or factory" without any regard to abundance. Therefore, your revert has restored the previous ambiguity. I'd be thrilled for a better editor to make better edits to improve the article by curing that ambiguity. Relying on readers to read later paragraphs and then synthesize the meaning in their heads is insufficient, when a few extra words could explain it in B&W at first reading, even if they only read the first paragraph. QUESTION: Do you agree the original paragraph, taken all alone, is ambiguous and if so does that change your mind about my approach to curing that ambiguity? If you agree to that, but dislike my word choice, please offer your own edit suggestion.

Regarding your complaint C, it is not fluff to educate newbies that GWP varies widely and that they can read about those details on the wiki article devoted to that subject. QUESTION: Are you advocating that this already long and complex article repeat those details, or that this article not inform readers about the issue at all, or that you agree its OK to steer people to the detail article devoted to the subject but you prefer something other than what I wrote? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 17:05, 3 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

GWP is critical. Methane is much worse than CO2 (i.e., livestock gases). Bryan XY (talk) 08:31, 10 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

'Worse' is ambiguous (and not NPOV) see the graph at Climate_forcing#IPCC_usage and the table in Greenhouse_gas#Global_warming_potential. In short methane is a more potent greenhouse gas per molecule and human activity has increased it's atmospheric concentration by a greater proportion than CO2 BUT methane is found at a much lower concentration in the earth's atmosphere and methane has a shorter lifetime, such that CO2 currently causes a greater change in forcing.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 08:57, 10 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Regarding methane: see the FAQ, Question #9. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 20:08, 14 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Serious crimes

Wikipedia is not a debate forum

The following discussion has been closed. Please do not modify it.

One writer on global warming accused the deniers of being "white" and of being middle-aged or older. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 93.97.194.200 (talk) 15:38, 5 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I too am upset that someone somewhere said something, unfortunately the fascists here demand sources.137.111.13.200 (talk) 01:49, 6 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

See the "New Internationalist", in about the edition of the May of this year, 2011. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 81.148.90.94 (talk) 10:54, 6 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

It might be the April edition. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 81.148.90.94 (talk) 11:06, 6 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

This is not a debate forum, so unless it can improve the article as it currently stands - it is irrelevant. Sorry. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 15:14, 6 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

The fact that a respected global warmer can say such a thing shows how honest he is. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 93.97.55.83 (talk) 13:29, 7 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

We do not care. Wikipedia is only interested in improving our articles. This has no relevance what so ever to this - find a debate forum somewhere and rage over this "respected global warmer" (whom ever it may be). --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 12:00, 8 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

People of all stripes can say all manner of things, but if it has nothing to contribute to the page then I am left wondering why this is relevant.137.111.13.200 (talk) 00:31, 8 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Public Opinion Polls

I moved the reference to the 2010 Gallup Poll (which asked about 'global warming') from the lede to the section on public opinion. In addition, I added a later and seemingly contradictory poll from Yale & George Mason (which asked about 'climate change), as well as a U of Mich study that shows what the public says they believe depends on which term you use. This paradox renders it impossible to succinctly cover specific poll results in the lede. Therefore, I moved the Gallup text intact, and added this other stuff.

Anyone wanna shoot me? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 02:05, 6 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

How about running back and forth a bit to make it more challenging? :-)

I think the lede is rather bloated, that there has been a general non-understanding of the lede being a sort of summary of the article. To the extent it may be warranted to mention that polls show divided public opinion, it is an improvement to move the explanatory details out of the lede. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 21:11, 6 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

CORRECTION... the Yale & George Mason survey asked people about "global warming" but in their executive summary and other materials they reported their results using the term "climate change". I just edited my prior text to make it consistent with the phrasing that was actually used in the questions. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 14:43, 9 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

One may say that the public opinion changes based on how often they hear the terms and whether they notice the term changes. At which point one might wonder what and how much the public will believe. --Cflare (talk) 17:58, 12 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

¿quien es Scibaby?

i couldn't find anything about "scibaby" in google.es 190.175.195.27 (talk) 00:58, 10 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

You need to pick a Spanish name from this list. Count Iblis (talk) 01:30, 10 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Prof. em. Dr. Horst Malburg at the Gegenwind

Wikipedia is not a debate forum

The following discussion has been closed. Please do not modify it.

Wolfgang Mueller of the European Institute For Climate And Energy (EIKE) conducted an interview with Prof. em. Dr. Horst Malburg at the Gegenwind [Counter Wind] Conference at the German North Sea island of Sylt. A translation of the entire interview follows the video below:

Start interview:

Mueller: We are here on the island of Sylt at the conference “Gegenwind” and I have with me Professor Dr. Malberg from Berlin. Professor Malberg, what do you say about wind power with regards to the climate discussion?

Prof. Malberg: Wind power plants cannot be justified by the climate issue. I examined in detail what drives the climate and I looked at all the available data, from Europe, from USA, from Japan – all data were evaluated, and naturally the global data. It clearly shows that the climate is dominated by the sun, and then on top of that by the oceans, and then a little bit by the CO2 effect. I would estimate it has a magnitude of 10%, for Co2, and not more. More than 80% of the climate change is driven by the sun. That means relative to natural climate change, the influence by CO2 is very small, and so it does not justify any action for climate protection, where wind parks are built in order to save CO2. Sure you can do it, but it won’t have any impact on our climate, at least no real impact... [...snip]

[per the reposting rules of the apparent source web site, the remainder of the interview has been removed, and may be found here. -NCdave]

- End - Mk 71.228.95.196 (talk) 16:44, 10 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

IP 71.228.95.196, As Mann jess correctly noted in his edit comment, per WP:NOTFORUM "if you have a suggestion for article improvement, please say so explicitly."

The Talk page is for discussion of the article, not for general discussion of the topic of the article. I realize that there's obviously a lot of overlap there, but you need to reference your material back to the article, and how the article can be improved. I assume that you wish to incorporate at least some of this material into the article, but please be specific about how you think that should be done.

Mann jess, I have undone your revert which deleted 71.228.95.196's contribution. Per the talk page guidelines, you generally "should not edit or delete the comments of other editors without their permission." Your concern that his contribution to the discussion didn't specify how the article should be improved is well-founded, but simply deleting his comment is not the best way to express that concern. We need to be gentle with newcomers.

IP 71.228.95.196, may I also suggest that you go ahead and create a Wikipedia ID, since it helps a lot to facilitate conversations like these. NCdave (talk) 22:49, 10 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

It looks to me like this is might be removable under the copyright provision of the talk page guidelines, because the original source appears to be this blog; it appears that IP 71.228.95.196 reposted the entire thing; and the source site appears to prohibit reposting their articles in the entirety, as stated here

At the very least, IMO without specific suggestions for improving the article it is disruptive to simply repost an entire article, and I would think that even if it were an article from climate hawk Jim Hansen.

Like the others said, if you want to join in the discussion please read the talk page guidelines, and some of the other welcome page stuff, and then propose your own original ideas for improving the article. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 00:37, 11 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Thank you, NewsAndEventsGuy. Good catch! I've deleted the bulk of the IP's comment and replaced it with a link to the apparent source, to conform with the reposting policy of that source. (BTW, I like that term, "climate hawk" -- it is concise, descriptive, and POV-neutral.]

IP 71.228.95.196, please be more careful to respect copyrights, in the future.

Vsmith, per the talk page guidelines, you generally "should not edit or delete the comments of other editors without their permission." An exception is "removing prohibited material," but not removing discussion of that material (such as my comments and those of NewsAndEventsGuy). Consequently, I've restored that discussion, which you had deleted. NCdave (talk) 16:08, 11 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I undid my own deletion of this thread because, upon reflection I regrettably decided my asserted basis for removal was in error. Nonetheless, this thread merits closure and archiving (minimum) as a disruptive contribution per the talk page guidelines and Wikipedia:Disruptive_editing. We're up to around 6000 characters and neither the IP nor NCDave have made a single suggestion for article improvement, despite multiple requests. It's hard to assume good faith instead of a goal of disruption in these circumstances.

In addition, I disavow NCDave's characterization of my prior comments in this thread. He asserts we have been talking about the material the IP posted. No we have not. Instead, the discussion has been about the IP's choice to repost the entire contents of a blog entry without making a single suggestion for improving the article. Discussion about that choice is not a discussion about the material. Since neither the IP nor NCDave have suggested a way to improve the article, all this discussion about the IP's choice is disruptive and should go away. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 18:40, 11 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

<ec> See WP:TALK and note particularly WP:NOTAFORUM. Unless there are specific proposals to use this information to improve the article, it will be appropriate and in order to hat, archive or delete this offtopic discussion. In what way are detailed arguments about justifications for wind power relevant or significant to this overview of global warming? . . dave souza, talk 18:50, 11 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Direct temperature measurement

Here [1], User:Squiddy reverted my edit.

There is no such thing as a direct measure of temperature. If you measure temperature on a mercury-in-glass thermometer you are measuring a length which is related to the thermal expansion of a liquid. There are lots of ways of measuring temperature. If I remember correctly from my thermodynamics course, gas thermometers are the gold standard but even may differ from true temperature as understood by the zeroth law of thermodynamics.

I don't normally revert reverts prior to discussion but I have in this case.IanOfNorwich (talk) 13:05, 16 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

If I remember correctly, I'm the bloke that inserted "directly" into this sentence; deletion of that word is fine with me; but as the other editor commented, my intention was to help climate change newbies understand that we're NOT talking about proxies with this data set. But like I said I can live with deleting it. Maybe there's another place (other than the lede I mean) to educate newbies on that point. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 14:36, 16 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Grr. Nor is there a global measurement – may I suggest changing
"Scientists measured the global surface temperature increase during the 20th century at about 0.74°C (1.33°F)."
to "The instrumental temperature record shows the global surface temperature increase during the 20th century as about 0.74°C (1.33°F)."
Grammatically, "as having been as about 0.74°C" might be better, perhaps rather pedantic. Also, what scientists have done is to compile the record from various sources, and use statistical methods to find a global average. Rather detailed for the lead, no?
In the first paragraph, the ghastly "ongoing rise" should be "continuing rise", have onwent and implemented that. . dave souza, talk 16:08, 16 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I understand the positive intent NewsAndEventsGuy, but my point is ANY measure of temperature is a proxy, just some proxies (like a height of mercury) are easier to use, understand and get accurate data from than others. I agree "continuing" is better, I think "ongoing" beat "and it's projected continuation". I have also onwhent and made Mr. Souza's other suggested change with a couple of minor modifications leaving it as "The instrumental temperature record shows the average global surface temperature increase during the 20th century to have been 0.74°C (1.33°F)." which, happily, gets rid of a reference to that homogeneous group of white coated people (scientists) having done or said something.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 21:50, 16 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

OK, I think I originally put in "scientists" too. Instrument temp record appears in the graphic to the side, so I thought it redundant, and to my writing style making scientists the noun of sentence #1 made the paragraph more engaging to a non engineering or non scientist audience. I can live with either. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 01:13, 17 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Additional info on regional emissions

In bold text below is my suggested addition to the section on greenhouse gases:

Over the last three decades of the 20th century, GDP per capita and population growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions.[51] CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change.[52][53]:71 Emissions can be attributed to different regions. The two figures opposite show annual greenhouse gas emissions for the year 2005, including land-use change. Attribution of emissions due to land-use change is a controversial issue.[54]:93[55]:289 For example, concentrating on more recent changes in land-use (as the figures opposite do) is likely to favour those regions that have deforested earlier, e.g., Europe.

Emissions can also be measured over longer time periods. Measuring cumulative CO2 emissions gives some indication of who is responsible for the build-up in the concentration of the gas in the atmosphere (IEA, 2007, p.199) and consequently, who is historically most responsible for the impacts of global warming (Banuri et al, 1996, p105; UNEP, 2010, p12; IPCC, 2001, p67). Between the start of the industrial revolution and 2004, developing and least-developed economies, who represent 80% of the world's population, accounted for 23% of cumulative CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning (Raupach et al, 2007, discussion section).

References:

Banuri, T., K. Göran-Mäler, M. Grubb, H.K. Jacobson and F. Yamin (1996) (PDF). Equity and Social Considerations. In: Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (J.P. Bruce, H. Lee and E.F. Haites, (eds.)). This version: Printed by Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. PDF version: IPCC website. doi:10.2277/0521568544. ISBN 978-0-521-56854-8.
IEA (2007). World Energy Outlook 2007 Edition- China and India Insights. International Energy Agency (IEA), Head of Communication and Information Office, 9 rue de la Fédération, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France. p. 600. ISBN 9789264027305. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
IPCC (2001). 3.16. In Watson, R.T. and the Core Writing Team, (eds). Question 3. Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. A Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Integovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: GRID-Arendal website. Retrieved 2011-04-16.
Raupach, M.R. et al. (12 June 2007). Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. PNAS 104 (24): 10288–10293. doi:10.1073/pnas.0700609104. PMID 17519334. Retrieved 2011-03-30.
UNEP (November 2010). Technical summary (PDF). The Emissions Gap Report: Are the Copenhagen Accord pledges sufficient to limit global warming to 2 °C or 1.5 °C? A preliminary assessment (advance copy). United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) website. Retrieved 2011-05-11. This publication is also available in e-book format

I see this addition as only being fair. My interpretation of "fair" is based on my reading of the UNFCCC treaty, which most countries have ratified (first bit of the treaty). Enescot (talk) 15:55, 17 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I'm ok with that, and note that these are not the only ways to think about GHG buildup. I wouldn't mind having this article just alert readers that international negotiations are largely driven by each party's preferred method and moving the details about different approaches to another article, such as the greenhouse gas or attribution articles, but here works for me too NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 17:36, 17 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I am not OK with adding this. This is too specific for this article. It can perhaps go in the GHG page. But not here. Abel Love (talk) 07:12, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I agree. Not appropriate for this article. Fine for greenhouse gas. -Atmoz (talk) 15:02, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Enescot reply to comments

Why should regional annual emissions be preferred to regional cumulative emissions? In my opinion, concentrating on annual emissions, as this section of the article does, is implicitly biased in favour of rich countries. I should note that regional emissions are already mentioned in the later politics section of the article, i.e.,:

'[...] the developed world's emissions had contributed most to the stock of GHGs in the atmosphere; per-capita emissions (i.e., emissions per head of population) were still relatively low in developing countries; and the emissions of developing countries would grow to meet their development needs.[...]

In my opinion, the above info on regional emissions is perfectly acceptable since it is an objective description of a key part of UNFCCC negotiations.

One way of avoiding this problem would be to delete information on regional emissions in the greenhouse gas section of the article. Information could be added on sectoral emissions as a replacement. I think that the two diagrams on annual emissions should be deleted:

Per capita greenhouse gas emissions in 2005, including land-use change.

Total greenhouse gas emissions in 2005, including land-use change.

To replace these diagrams, a new figure could be added on sectoral emissions:

I think that info on regional emissions in the greenhouse gas section (in bold) should also be deleted: -

{i} Over the last three decades of the 20th century, gross domestic product per capita and population growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions.[45] CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change.[46][47]:71 Emissions can be attributed to different regions. The two figures opposite show annual greenhouse gas emissions for the year 2005, including land-use change. Attribution of emissions due to land-use change is a controversial issue.[48]:93[49]:289

The first part of the above paragraph {i} is already partly duplicated in the preceeding paragraph of the article, i.e.,:

Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from human activity over the past 20 years. The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes in land-use, particularly deforestation.[44]

The issue of relating emissions to economic growth and population could then be integrated into the following paragraph of the article, i.e., :

[...] Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from human activity over the past 20 years. The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes in land-use, particularly deforestation.

Over the last three decades of the 20th century, increases in world population and gross domestic product per head of world population were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions scenarios, estimates of changes in future emission levels of greenhouse gases, have been projected that depend upon uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments [...]

I've altered the first sentence since people may not know what "per capita" means. Enescot (talk) 19:38, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Report the debate

These approaches are all equally valid and important to international discussions on the issue. By picking one and being silent about the others is to inject a POV even if that's unintentional. The US wants to look at annual emissions; China wants to look at cumulative; others want to look at sectors on a global level. What's a poor wiki schmuck to do? ANSWER: Don't pick one over the other, but report on the contentious international debate.

Where to do that is another question. Not in Global warming, I agree. But the Greenhouse Gasarticle suffers from an identity crisis. Parts of it appear to be intended to cover greenhouse gas in general (any planet, any geologic period). Other parts drift to coverage of Earth-right-now. I'd like to see the general aspects of Greenhouse gas merged with the general article Greenhouse effect, the remaining earth-right-now information being renamed Greenhouse gas buildup, and then this information could go there. Maybe someone can offer a better idea, but the main point is: we should report fact that there are massive policy and economic implications that favor one party or another for each of these number crunching methods and that's often the core of international treaty talks. So all these charts are useful, provided the presentation is well done.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:25, 21 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Current per capita emissions are at least comparatively straight forward apart from the land use change issue. Historic emissions intended as a fair representation of responsibility is complicated - should it be per current population, is it as bad to have emitted greenhouse gasses without knowing the problems they will cause? Just for a start. I take Enescots point that having already industrialised developed countries have already benefited from it - assuming you think all of it's consequences a benefit. Given the complexity I agree with NAEG that we can't try to fairly address it here. I think Greenhouse Gas should remain more or less as it describing what it says oin the tin - any planet. I'm in favour of taking the emissions from Greenhouse Gas and coving it, linked from here, in more detail.I would prefer to call it Greenhouse Gas Emissions rather than Greenhouse gas buildup. I'm against removing the emissions graphs from this article.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 08:53, 22 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

WP:EGG

The approach here is hostile and unsuitable to an article covered by general sanctions

Whoever keeps adding the easter eggs needs to fucking quit it. -Atmoz (talk) 20:39, 17 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Seeing as you are angered enough to to use such language, are you motivated enough to include a diff or some other specific example? --OuroborosCobra (talk) 20:50, 17 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

If I knew who was doing it, this message would be on their fucking talk page. -Atmoz (talk) 20:57, 17 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Please read WP:CIVIL--IanOfNorwich (talk) 20:52, 17 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

If you can point to somewhere in that policy that says I can't use the word fuck (or one of its derivatives), do so. Otherwise, shut the fuck up. -Atmoz (talk) 20:57, 17 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Where I come from it is considered incivil to tell someone to "shut the fuck up". It conveys I level of anger that I don't believe is justified in this context.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 21:10, 17 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Which easter eggs are you referring to? I haven't been active on this article, or I probably would be using language similar to Atmoz's. Still, I can't quite place the problem. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 21:38, 17 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

History. I'm leaving [[Global_warming_potential#Values|72x the greenhouse warming power of CO2]] because it's so delicious. -Atmoz (talk) 21:58, 17 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Use of F-bomb without specific article improvement suggestions tends to (seriously) reduce the credibility of your other remarks on this talk page, and makes me not care very much about your earlier neutrality challenge to my edits. Would it be wise to get a good night's sleep and then revisit this thread with some specific (polite) suggestions for article improvement? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 22:35, 17 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

WP:EGG says "If a link takes readers to somewhere other than where they thought it would, it should at least take them somewhere that makes sense."--IanOfNorwich (talk) 20:01, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

What did IPCC actually say about likely temp rise?

This issue has arisen as a result of a [series of changes to the lead second paragraph].

In the more recent version the lead 2nd paragraph falsely asserts that in AR4, the IPCC projected that temps are "likely to rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C". That statement is supposedly supported by an IPCC summary document referenced as citation #6. This document does not say we are likely to warm between 1.1 to 6.4 °C. Instead, at page 13 that document specifies likely ranges for the six specific emissions scenarios IPCC selected for use in AR4. IPCC made no statement as to which of those scenarios is more likely than any other. Therein lies the problem. The low number in this alleged range comes from the B1 scenario, and to quote from Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, some of the characteristics of the world that produces the B1 scenario are

Reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies and
An emphasis on global solutions to economic, social and environmental stability.

Somewhere in the wiki help pages it says you don't have to provide a citation for the sky is blue. I think we all agree that our current world is not an example of the B1 characteristics listed above and that bringing such a world about would require vast changes in society. Because IPCC did not say it is likely that will happen, IPCC did not say temp rise is likely to be as low as 1.1C. On the other hand, IPCC also did not say that emissions are likely to remain high and produce a rise at the high end of the range.

The current text fails verification, and when someone back in time simply stuck a dash inbetween the the low end of the B1 emissions scenario (1.1 C) and the high end of the A1Fi scenario (6.4 C) they committed a WP:SYN. It's the same error in logic illustrated in this intentionally absurd example

Teacher to class, "If things go like they are at lunch we'll eat apples, but if the moon explodes before then we'll eat grapes instead".

Class - "Hooray! We love apples and we have just as much chance of getting grapes!"

I'm sure some will assert that the problem goes away because of the following sentence. That sentence is also a problem. The part about uncertainty and models' varying degrees of climate sensitivity is fine. The part about uncertainty over which emissions scenario will occur is some editors attempt to cure the prior WP:SYN. IPCC made no assertion that any scenario is more likely than any other. Forgiving the WP:SYN in the prior sentence with this text is to put an implied statement into IPCC's mouth that all the scenarios are equally likely.

I propose to take the approach in the prior version of the comparison I linked to above. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 09:00, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I agree. I was returning, in part, to an earlier version because it was well worded accurate (mostly) and succinct. I say mostly as it has the problem to which I think you are referring - that it kind of conflates physical uncertainties (climate sensitivity) with uncertainties of choice (ie emmisions). I'd like this fixed. But the lede has to remain short and well written.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 09:20, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks. I'm not wedded to the actual text of the earlier version, but the concepts are vital. One of those vital concepts, IMO, is the specific range for A2. It's my guess that the three top questions for new readers is "How much hotter", "how much sea level rise", and "Are policy changes really necessary". Since current policies have so far resulted in emissions at or above A2 (except during recessions) as shown in the 3rd figure, my belief is that the lead should answer "how hot" in the A2 context.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 09:33, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

My version had the "best estimate" for the A2 scenario and the mention of the current emissions following or exceeding A2 except during recessions. Atmoz removed this. Given the size of the lede it was probably unsustainable as was. It would make sense to loose the wider range and focus on A2, as this is more notable. But I'm determined it should be succinct and well written.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 10:07, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

How's [that]? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 10:24, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Erh? 1.1°C is the lowest likely temperature (B1), and 6.4°C is the highest likely temperature (A1F1), in the AR4 emission scenarios. How is this unclear from the SPM citation? The range is a simple routine calculation. The "I think we all agree that our current world is not an example of the B1 characteristics..." is original research. I object to your change[2], since you go from a succinct expression of the range variation in the AR4, an assessment report, to a specific statement about what the world after 2000 looks like (from a single paper). This is the lede - if you want to expand and describe the ranges and the various emission scenarios, as well as where we are heading today.... then it belongs in the body (or more likely the subarticles), where this is explained. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 12:28, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Kim please copy and paste a verbatim quote from IPCC where they said temps are likely to rise between 1.1 to 6.4C by 2100. I believe the best you'll be able to do is a series of individual ranges for individual scenarios and you'll have to do your own WP:OR or WP:syn to produce such a quote..... if I'm wrong, please provide the verbatim text here and a pinpoint citation where you found it. Otherwise, I believe you're mistaken. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 13:13, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

PS, the guidelines for routine calculations that you pointed out require other editors to go along. I don't. Your synthesized range from the table leaves out critical information in the table and this creates a divergence from what IPCC actually said, for the reasons I've already explained. Since I reject your attempt at a routine calculation, I reverted your edit. Show me some verbatim text from IPCC and we can talk more.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 13:32, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Not everyone has to agree for there to be consensus. -Atmoz (talk) 14:56, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Agreed, but is there consensus that taking the low end of one scenario and the high end of another scenario is a routine calculation? I hope not, because it not only isn't routine, it isn't valid. I accept the complications of summarizing Table SPM.3. into a manageable sound bite, but the current wording is simply wrong.--SPhilbrick T 15:46, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Just in case someone wishes to argue for the current wording, which fails on two counts, I offer the following. Given n (n>1) scenarios, and a likely range for each scenario, it is mathematically impossible to construct the overall likely range in the absence of the specification of probabilities for each scenario. However, even if such probabilities exist, the overall likely range is not the range defined by the minimum and maximum values of all the ranges. As a simple example illustrating this point, imagine a situation with two dice, each corresponding to a scenario. Assume the two scenarios are equally likely. One die is an ordinary die, with 1,2,3,4,5 or 6 pips on a side, the second has two additional pips per side, so the possible values are 3,4,5,6,7,and 8. Simply by inspection, one can see that the likely range for the first scenario is [2,5] while the likely range for the second scenario is [4,7]. The overall likely range is not [2,7], but [3,6].--SPhilbrick T 16:16, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Its quite complex - since the scenarios are potentially equally likely. They are a function of future socio-political changes. Which is why we give the range - and shouldn't focus on a specific emission scenario (even if it currently tracks). We can all have our POV on what scenario is likely - but it really is opinion - and not science. If the wording should be changed - then it should be to something like '... a range of emission scenario's with the lowest likely change of 1.1°C and highest likely change of 6.4°C.' - or something to that effect. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 18:49, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I quite like version posted by NewsAndEventsGuy. The 1.1-6.4 range is the min-of-one-scenario to the max-of-another, which doesn't really make sense here. We are nowhere near any of the B scenarios, especially not B1, and are not likely to reach that low level of emissions anytime in the next few decades. The citations given show that we are tracking above A2, so it's not original research. - Parejkoj (talk) 15:08, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

The point behind WP:SYN is to prevent unverifiable facts getting in or ones that would require to much study to verify. If we agree that it is verifiable it should be no obstacle to inclusion, so the 1.1 to 6.4 range is in my view verifiable and eligeble for inclusion if noteworthy enough for the lede. Likewise if it is verifiable fact that the A2 scenario is closest to current trends that clearly makes A2 more notable than other scenarios again without encroaching on synthesis. I have not seen a version that, in my view, sufficiently elegantly incorporates the A2 projections rather than the broad range so the 1.1 to 6.4 version is for now preferable. Which does leave the problem which I hope all recognize that the lede currently treats as one thing uncertainty in climate sensitivity and uncertainty as to what humanity will do.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 15:10, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

The 1.1-6.4 range of equally likely temperatures is unverifiable because it is ((((us)))) who are injecting the "equally likely" notion. IPCC - 2007 WG1 anyway - explicitly denies saying anything about likelihood whatsoever. So why are we putting those words in their mouth by synthesizing a temperature range and then saying all temps in the range are equally likely? Here is the IPCC text onpoint

"For projected climate change in the 21st century, a subset of three IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES; Nakićenović and Swart, 2000) scenario simulations have been selected from the six commonly used marker scenarios. With respect to emissions, this subset (B1, A1B and A2) consists of a ‘low’, ‘medium’ and ‘high’ scenario among the marker scenarios, and this choice is solely made by the constraints of available computer resources that did not allow for the calculation of all six scenarios. This choice, therefore, does not imply a qualification of, or preference over, the six marker scenarios. In addition, it is not within the scope of the Working Group I contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to assess the plausibility or likelihood of emission scenarios." See http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-1.html (bold added)

Is plausibility within the scope of the other groups? I don't know, maybe someone else will answer that.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 15:25, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

(edit conflict)Plausibility is determined by future policy, so not really something that can be explored in hard science. There is a possibility that it is in WGII or WGIII, and it is possibly that it is explored in the Synthesis report. But i doubt if it is determinable at all. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 18:40, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

How about this replacing x,y,p and q with the correct figures: "Climate model projections summarized in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate that the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further x to y °C (xx to yy °F) during the 21st century for the lowest emissions scenario and p to q°C (pp to qq °F) for the highest.[6] The uncertainty in these estimates arises from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations.[7]" --IanOfNorwich (talk) 15:49, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Not bad. I'm sympathetic to the desire to have crisp wording in a lede, and this is pushing the envelope on that desire, but it is better than the flawed current wording.--SPhilbrick T 16:00, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Except that I think it's important that the lede explicitly state the path we are currently on (as given by the citations already in place, and/or others), even if it's just one additional sentence in your paragraph, Ian. That would be A2, or maybe A1FI. A discussion of the warming expected in other scenarios should come later on. Along those lines, the SRES page definitely needs some more tidying up. - Parejkoj (talk) 16:09, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I like Ian's first sentence.

I agree with Parejko about including current emissions, and suggest a second sentence that says "Since 2000 emissions have generally been tracking at or above the 2nd highest emissions scenario.[A]" The citations from my earlier version (or others) and the temp range for A2 could all go in the footnote. Note that figure 3, which illustrates this point, is still in the lead.

I think Ian's last sentence should be deleted because its misleading to a lay audience and correction of that problem is too much for the lede. "Uncertainty" in the context of IPCC modelling is a technical term of art. Within the scope of that definition, Ian's sentence is fine. However, if one reads with a layman's understanding of "uncertainty", one is likely to walk away thinking IPCC knows everything there is to know about the climate system and there will be no surprises. But that's not what IPCC says. They acknowledge there are many aspects of the climate system that have not yet been quantified, with the implication that they are not in the models. Permafrost outgassing is one example. (See also http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/217.full.pdf+html at page 233). If we're going to use IPCC's technical term of art "uncertainty" we should alert readers it means something more restrictive than the common meaning, but since that's too much for the lead, this sentence should be deleted.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 16:50, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Hmm, which 2 scenarios is a good question. I guess A2 and B1. As A2 is most notable as discussed and B1 offers the best contrast, most clearly demonstrating the range of possibilities. The IPCC is not infallible by any means and suffers (and benefits) from consensus (as does wikipedia) however at least for the lede it is the best we have got - if we jump strait into "outgassing" in the lede whether it's methane clathrates or scibaby's sheep the lede will become a mess. That detail is for later. I would also like to see a mention of A2 being the best fit but only if the lede remains concise and readable.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 17:40, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Ian, my suggested tweak to your proposal results in:

"Climate model projections summarized in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate that the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further x to y °C (xx to yy °F) during the 21st century for the lowest emissions scenario and p to q°C (pp to qq °F) for the highest.[6] Since 2000, actual emissions have generally been at or above the 2nd highest emissions scenario.[new footnote A, yet to be written] ~~The uncertainty in these estimates arises from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations.[7]~~"

Does that achieve your desired degree of brevity and clarity? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 17:57, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

We shouldn't select which scenario is closest to now - that is unverifiable with regards to the major scientific research that is being done. You can probably find references that will pick one or another of the various scenarios and claim that to be the current track - but it varies too much, and there (afaik) isn't a consensus on it, not to mention that it is (more than) likely to change within a decade. This is certainly not something for the lede in the main GW article - that should be something summarized in the section on emis.scen. and explored in the sub-articles. Please remember that climate and emission scenarios are multi-decadal issues! --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 18:34, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Kim makes a good point. I didn't feel comfortable with the inclusion of that point, but couldn't quite put my finger on why. Kim nails it.--SPhilbrick T 19:08, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

It is a major problem within this topic (and others) , that we as editors have things that we regard as plausible (and in-), and thus are prone to a selection bias with regards to individual papers that we would chose to cite. As much as possible we need to stick to the assessment reports (IPCC,ACIA,US GCRP, etc) when we're working on this article. In the sub-articles it is possible to explore and expand on current scientific research, and where it might lead. Weight is extremely important in top-level articles. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 19:18, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Just checked WP:LEDE, that says that lede content should be proportionate to coverage in the article (rather than notability directly as I was assuming). While I am in practice sympathetic to the idea that the lede should focus on statements supported by IPCC work it's important to remember that any reliable source is valid.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 19:48, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

True, but while every reliable source is valid, reliable sources doesn't have the same weight. Reliability is merely the threshold for being considered for inclusion. When we consider the weight, it is the significance and proportion of views that is the determining factor. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 20:53, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I take the point that none of the scenarios will exactly match what has happened or will happen (though one will be a best match so far). Accordingly I'm content to chose the 2 scenarios simply on the basis of showing the range of possibilities (ie lowest & highest), which still gives us A1 or A2 and B1. The important thing here is that the lede should not conflate uncertainty in climate sensitivity with uncertainty in what the course of emissions will be.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 19:26, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Climate sensitivity is an aspect of each model within the ensemble of models that are run at a given scenario, not in what scenario is plausible. You are conflating things (imho). As for chosing scenarios we (as editors) have no place in doing so. If the weight of the scientific literature doesn't give prominence to a particular scenario (or subset of scenarios), then we do not do so either. Otherwise we are doing rather obvious WP:OR. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 20:53, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

One definition of editor is "A person who is in charge of and determines the final content of a text" we are deciding what text goes in are we not, hopefully with due regard to weight? I think you misunderstand me if you think I am conflating Climate sensitivity with plausibility. We do, however, in this thread seem to be disusing 2 things - 1 Should we say in the lede something about which SRES Scenario is most closely being followed - as I've said elsewhere it's not even in the article so definitively can't go in the lede. 2 - the misleading way the lede conflates the uncertainty about climate sensitivity and the uncertainty about what path emissions will follow.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 05:51, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

"...that is unverifiable with regards to the major scientific research that is being done..." Except that's not correct. It's very easy to check, and except for the dip in 2008-2009, we're tracking very close to A2/A1FI, and most studies of emissions reduction have stated that a high fraction of the coming decade's emissions are already in place, due to the time lag for power plant construction. - Parejkoj (talk) 19:59, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

There is nothing making it imposible to quantify how closely emissions to date have tracked one or other of the emmisions scenarios - least squares for instance or the difference between the integrals of the scenarios and the real life graphs - OBVIOUSLY this would be WP:OR and I'm not suggesting that we do it only that a reliable source may have, and if so it's useable (ie scientific paper not blog). Until then the graph is in the lede and speaks for itself, I don't think it would be at all unreasonable to base statements on the graph providing they are blindingly obvious such as the "...most closely except for two global recessions" statement which was in but is (I believe) to wordy for the lede.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 20:11, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

The trouble you are running into here, is that a single scientific paper isn't good enough. You will need to consider the total literature - and this is what the assessment reports are doing. Which is why they carry signicantly more weight than any individual paper. And another thing to consider is that it is rather irrelevant what scenario we are "currently" following - since all scenarios are dependent upon future policy. It is simply not objectively determinable by considering the now. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 20:59, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

(This is in response to Kim. I was interlining at this level when other comments appeared.)

I can point to several papers that claim its the higher A1Fi. Show me a credible source that claims we've been on a trajectory that is lower than A2 since 2000 and I'll grant your point.

Also, I expect a lot of new readers arrive here asking "Where are we now?" as a top-level question. There's a good chance new readers won't find the answer if its only buried in sub-articles, and the possibility that it could change in the future is irrelevant to their desire to know our current status, especially since current emissions status is very much an issue in policy debates.

Finally, did you notice the International Energy Agency's emissions data is based on hard data inputs regarding international fossil fuel consumption? As far as I know, they're the main provider of this sort of data to all the big bodies and panels, so I'm a bit fuzzy how much more weight it could have. Do they need to stick a meter in every point source, and then have someone else replicate that work? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 20:14, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Can we have the papers and a quote or two so we can see what's useable?--IanOfNorwich (talk) 20:39, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Yes, you probably can point to such. But can you point me at a scientific assessment that says this? We need something a lot more prominent than individual papers (ie. carries more weight) to make sweeping statements in the lede of the main article of the topic. And once more: You are ignoring that scenarios are about the future - not about the present. Future policy changes and economic factors are the determinant factors - not what the present course is. You are confusing political aspects with scientific aspects. The AR4 was published in 2007 - 4 years is certainly not even close to determining "what course we are on". --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 21:08, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

As I noted above (though probably lost in the mass) WP:LEDE suggests inclusion in the lede depends on weight given in the article not the prominence of the source. The source must be reliable and the content should reflect the article. SRES was published in 2000. And no we can't say what course emissions will take in the future but we can say what course we are on. I'd like to see the citations NAEG mentioned. In the mean time I'm going to take the drastic step of trying to read through the article....--IanOfNorwich (talk) 21:17, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

WP:LEDE is a style guide - not a policy. The basic thing to remember is that the lede should be a succinct summary of, and introduction to, the topic and article with much more care given to weight. SRES was published in 2000, yes. But it is still the basis for the AR4 which was published in 2007 - and if the AR4 didn't give extra weight to a specific scenario then it is certainly not up to us to do so. AR5 will (iirc) go a different path with regards to the approach (Boris will know the detail). Imho the "Observed CO2 vs. scenario" graph is misleading - since it focuses on to short a timeperiod to make any sense. It crosses into advocacy (but that is my opinion). --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 22:13, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Well, except the graph I can't actually find the content about which emission scenario is most representative in the article (pls help the blind if I have missed it)! On that basis it can't go in the lede but should go in the article assuming NAEG comes-up with the promised citation. In truth, on the same basis I'd have a job arguing for the 2 temp ranges (or even the one range we have). I am determined, though, that the lede, ultimately shouldn't conflate uncertainty with what humans do and uncertainty with how the global climate works.-IanOfNorwich (talk) 21:45, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

The graph is policy/advocacy relevant - but (imho as mentioned above) is misleading in this article. As for individual papers that focus on specific scenarios - there are a few. (mainly because model runs are expensive in time - so you try to focus on what the scientist personally thinks is most likely) It doesn't afaik represent actual content in the article. The lede has been changing quite a lot - with little to no changes in the body... and that is a problem (again imho). --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 22:45, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Either the graph is accurate or not (seems to me it is) in which case it can't reasonably be characterised as misleading.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 05:21, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Misleading in 3 senses: 1. Doesn't show complete data (we have emission data that goes back further). 2. Shows to short a timeperiod to have any relevance. 3. Indicates that this is an important finding. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 15:06, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

(Moved from following subsection) Ian, arrive at "at or above A2" first by plotting emissions per the IPCC scenarios (the lines in the figure) and there are lots of links to IPCC's stuff throughout these pages. Secondly, you go the mother-of-global-fossil-fuel-consumption (International Energy Agency) and you look at the spreadsheet underlying the report I cited in the text. The spreadsheet link is in the figure's caption. The spreadsheet is online supporting material that is not in the report itself, so be sure to look at the spreadsheet link. The spreadsheet includes a global total for fossil-fuel related CO2 emissions. I forget what cell that info is in. It is that annual global total that makes the wavy line in the graph. Finally, for the last year of data, you have to go to a news report regarding IAE's most recent year's data. That's the newspaper cite in the figure's caption. If you put it all together, you get the chart in figure 3. OOPS! No original research. Well.... geez what a tough crowd. The sky is blue people. But hey, you can go to the skeptical science column (I think Paj had a link above), or you can go to wiki commons if that's good enough (of course I put it there), or you can find out who else has used the chart so far. I'll see if I can locate instances where someone incorporated it in the literature. Let me know if I can help further

PS For convenience the spreadsheet link is http://www.iea.org/co2highlights/co2Highlights.XLS and the data for the wavy line is in the top row, tab 2. Also, isn't there a policy about user-designed graphic using data with verifiable cites? Its not my image, but seems like that policy should apply if anyone has a WP:OR tizzy.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:04, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Kim, I respect your point that 10 years is a short time. Given the variability in climate, a lot of us detest instances where folks make a big deal about short term climate trends over such periods. FF emissions are a different critter. FF consumption has just kept going up for many long decades except for minor economic blips. That IAE spreadsheet has data going back to the 70s. IMO to compare the validity of short term trends for climate vs FF emissions is to compare apples and oranges. We know one goes up and down, and we've only seen the other go up. Now I'll grant that technology, policy, or disaster could bring about an overall longterm decrease in emissions. Since the odds of that appear to be quite low at the moment, I do not agree it is in any way misleading to present IAE's FF emissions numbers compared to IPCC's projections. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:04, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Well that source supports the graph. However, I think we need a text source comparing SRES scenarios to that data before we can add useful text to the article on that subject (and as noted before that info is not yet even in the body of the article so that's were it belongs - at least to begin with). Btw, the important difference between global average temperature and fossil fuel consumption is the level of noise or inter-annual variability, that's clear from looking at the emissions graph vs the global temp graph. The other question that I keep waving my arms about is that the lede is misledeing as it bundles together uncertainty arising from models with differing climate sensitivity with uncertainty about what course humanity will take. This does a diservice to the reader and can be fixed with something like this:

"Climate model projections summarized in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate that the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.5 to 1.9 °C (2.7 to 3.4 °F) during the 21st century for the lowest emissions scenario and 3.4 to 6.1 °C (6.1 to 11.0 °F) for the highest.[6] The uncertainty in these estimates arises from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations.[7]"

AR4[3] says "This clear difference in projected mean warming highlights the importance of assessing different emission scenarios separately." The above figures are based on B1 and A1F1 which as well as being two of the three scenarios highlighted by the IPCC on the page linked above are also, as described, the highest and lowest emmisions scenarios for which the models were run.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 06:35, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Well, I like that. Especially as it is now clear that there was a significant gap in the range of possibilities that we currently state - 1.1 to 6.4 °C is here replaced by 1.5 to 1.9 °C or 3.4 to 6.1 °C. It clarifies the scale of the uncertainty due to the models, compared to the uncertainty due to future human behaviour. I would suggest substituting 'their' rather than 'the' twice to read 'xxx for their lowest emissions scenario and yyy for their highest'. These are not the lowest and highest, just the lowest and highest that they considered, which counts for enough as we have no better authority, and their judgement has to count for quite a lot. --Nigelj (talk) 09:56, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I like the first sentence too, as modified by Nigelj. As discussed below, I prefer the uncertainty sentence be deleted, but don't let that continuing conversation get in the way of making this change.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 10:52, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Sorry I think my above link is the wrong page try [4] - that has the quote I pulled and I think a close reading clarifies the discrepancy highlighted by Nigelj, I'm open-minded on which level of uncertainty we use.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 11:18, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Since IPCC has other scenarios, and there are other scenarios beyond IPCC's, I think N had a good point. How about this....

"In its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) used computer models to project the likely additional rise in global surface temperature by 2100 for some hypothetical future emissions scenarios. For the lowest emissions they modeled, the likely additional rise was 1.5 to 1.9 °C (2.7 to 3.4 °F), and for the highest it was 3.4 to 6.1 °C (6.1 to 11.0 °F).[6] The uncertainty in these estimates arises from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations.[7]"

NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 13:58, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I should have added earlier that I think Niglej's changes are an improvement. As for NAEG's proposal I'm not sure what the purpose of talking about "hypothetical futures" is, it may be the language used in some reports but it does not read well in my opinion.I've also heard SBHB object to saying that the IPCC use models on the basis that they are not IPCC models - a bit pedantic perhaps but would be wrong to give that false impression.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 16:04, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

How about this then

"In its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) used computer models to project the likely additional rise in global surface temperature by 2100 for some possible emissions scenarios. For the lowest emissions they modeled, the likely additional rise was 1.5 to 1.9 °C (2.7 to 3.4 °F), and for the highest it was 3.4 to 6.1 °C (6.1 to 11.0 °F).[6] The uncertainty in these estimates arises from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations.[7]"NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 17:20, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I still prefer:
"Climate model projections are summarized in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They indicate that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.5 to 1.9 °C (2.7 to 3.4 °F) for their lowest emissions scenario and 3.4 to 6.1 °C (6.1 to 11.0 °F) for their highest.[6] The uncertainty in these estimates arises from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations.[7]"
It's shorter, more accurately describes the IPCC as "summarising" rather than "using" models, refers more specifically to "climate models" rather than "computer models". I like the addition of the extra full stop and have adopted it above breaking one large sentence into two at the cost of the addition of two words.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 19:11, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

If you change "uncertainty" to "range" per the following subsection I like it and appreciate your sticking with the labor working this out. I'll continue this comment in reply to your citation to AR4 10.5 in the following subsection.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:37, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Oh... still need to change "differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations" to "differing climate sensitivity" per Kim's excellent observation and your citation to AR4 WG1 10.5 in the following subsection.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:46, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

climate sensitivity is by definition (at least the one the IPCC uses) climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2. More precisely the temperature change once the climate system has reached equilibrium after a doubling of CO2 via 1% per year change. I think the last bit is there to help "lay readers" understand what climate sensitivity is.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 07:43, 20 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I've made the change. Based, as noted above, primarily on AR4 10.5.3 [[5]] in particular "This clear difference in projected mean warming highlights the importance of assessing different emission scenarios separately."--IanOfNorwich (talk) 09:03, 20 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Awesome thanks! Incidentally, I looked at the glossary for IPCC AR4-WG1l, and find its too technical for me to have an opinion regarding the final phrase in the last sentence. Kim? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 09:40, 20 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

So it is OK to have an enormous discussion about exactly what the IPCC predicted, but it's not permissible to point out that they did not predict the decade of cooling following 2001. There can be no clearly evidence that this article has nothing to do with science. You waffle on ad nausea regarding how many angels are on the head of a pin, and ignore the simple fact that it isn't warming ... 88.104.193.134 (talk) 12:12, 25 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Use of the term uncertainty in the lede

I've broken this off from the above topic for the sake of clarity. I'll try to copy the relavant content here in a mo(and add my comments)...--IanOfNorwich (talk) 19:29, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I think Ian's last sentence ("The uncertainty in these estimates arises from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations.")should be deleted because its misleading to a lay audience and correction of that problem is too much for the lede. "Uncertainty" in the context of IPCC modelling is a technical term of art. Within the scope of that definition, Ian's sentence is fine. However, if one reads with a layman's understanding of "uncertainty", one is likely to walk away thinking IPCC knows everything there is to know about the climate system and there will be no surprises. But that's not what IPCC says. They acknowledge there are many aspects of the climate system that have not yet been quantified, with the implication that they are not in the models. Permafrost outgassing is one example. (See also http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/217.full.pdf+html at page 233). If we're going to use IPCC's technical term of art "uncertainty" we should alert readers it means something more restrictive than the common meaning, but since that's too much for the lead, this sentence should be deleted.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 16:50, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Ian, my suggested tweak to your proposal results in:

"Climate model projections summarized in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate that the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further x to y °C (xx to yy °F) during the 21st century for the lowest emissions scenario and p to q°C (pp to qq °F) for the highest.[6] Since 2000, actual emissions have generally been at or above the 2nd highest emissions scenario.[new footnote A, yet to be written] ~~The uncertainty in these estimates arises from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations.[7]~~"

Does that achieve your desired degree of brevity and clarity? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 17:57, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I'm not sure there is a problem with the term uncertainty. I think the layman uses it in much the same way as the IPCC. ie the antonym of certain. The reason for the range/ranges of temperatures needs to be given, I think. I'm againt the word "generally" in your version as it is vauge. Also a citation is needed for that sentence.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 19:52, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks for breaking this out. (A) Ok, waste "generally". (B) Citations are the citations under Figure 3.

Now about uncertainty - Let's see if I can illustrate the problem:

Mother: "We are having chicken, spuds, and I'm uncertain whether it will be corn or brocolli". From this her son unwittingly infers that the only types of vegetables that exist are corn and brocolli. Oops.

Did you read pg 233 of the Warren paper I cited?NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 20:14, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

(A) Good. (B) I'll take a look (C) OK, but it does say "uncertainty in this estimate" like "We are having chicken or spuds in this meal".--IanOfNorwich (talk) 20:33, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Actually on (B) can you be more specific or point me at a link to Warren if that's the badger. Google gives me JFK assasination reports!--IanOfNorwich (talk) 20:37, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

sorry, we've gotten the cites for two discussions crossed. The Warren citation provides one paper's discussion (oopse, sorry Kim) of major possible climate system surprises that simply are not yet in the models. The existence of these known-but-as-yet-unquantified components to the climate system is another source of "uncertainty" as a layman would understand it. IPCC had a more nuanced restriced meaning of uncertainty.... something like, within-the-parameters-defined-by-our-assumptions-there-is-still-uncertainty. Such nuances will be lost on newbies without careful text.

The other discussion is the emissions trajectory of the last 10 years. See my reply above.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:04, 18 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Which warren paper? There are 2 cited by the article alone by R Warren.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 07:11, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I don't think there is a serious problem over using the word uncertainty. Even if it means uncertainty-within-the-parameters-defined-by-our-assumptions, that is what it always means. Even in the mother and son example, she only offers the boy a selection from what she has available and those are the 'parameters defined by her assumptions'. Maybe she even has asparagus in the fridge, but considers that it is not an option with this meal. The IPCC are the UN body charged with being the worldwide authority on this matter, and so they are the best authority we have as to what are the parameters of uncertainty that are best considered when discussing scenarios in brief. And we don't get any briefer than this - the lede of the top-level article. If we try to split hairs in the summary at this level, the lede will either be incomprehensible or huge, and there'll be nothing left for the body of the top-level article or for all the sub-articles. --Nigelj (talk) 10:21, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

This is great! Nigelj, had I anticipated Ian's confusion about which Warren paper, I could have explained which Warren paper (the one I cited in my first reply in this thread, Ian... 2nd paragraph from the heading). And that perfectly illustrates my point about uncertainty. It's ambiguous, and our desire to not clutter up the lede is in conflict with the (strong) possibility lay people, like the son, will unwittingly infer that climate sensitivity between different models is the only reason for uncertainty. But at pg 233 of that Warren paper the author discusses the other biggie.... aspects of the climate system that are poorly quantified and not in the models. The solution is to delete the sentence about uncertainty from the lede.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 10:45, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Sorry I obviously wasn't reading your comments carefully enough. I've now had a look at page 233 of Warren and yes it does talk qualitatively about 2 feedback mechanisms not included in the current models, there will be plenty of others both positive and negative in any case(I trust less significant overall than those included in the models). But I don't think this is a great problem firstly as we are talking about uncertainty in these models and secondly because you have to draw the line somewhere in what is included in any model and that includes the part of the model relating to uncertainty. That has been done by the IPCC. It does not mean that we can't point out what's not in the models in the appropriate place - ie the climate models section or sub article.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 16:44, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

To borrow some of your words, the precise problem is that we, being wiki editors who are at least somewhat familiar with the subject, "are talking about uncertainty in these models" but new readers (who have no idea) can not be expected to just magically know that limitation. Most lay folk just think scientists either know all (or nothing). Since we're not writing for people who already know this stuff, I'm opposed to ambiguities that require special knowledge to ensure proper understanding.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 17:26, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

If we go with the draft text developing in the prior subsection, then how about changing "uncertainty" to "range" so the last sentence reads "The range in these estimates arises from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations." That's both accurate and unambiguous. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 17:43, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Is it really both accutate an unambiguous? Where exactly do you get the text that the uncertainty primarily comes from "sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations"? As opposed to carbon cycle stability, aerosol emissions, transient climate responses, albedo change speed, etc etc. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 18:45, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I think the answer (in my case at least is the old lede.) But it's a good point. I'll see if it's cited.....--IanOfNorwich (talk) 19:14, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

[6] this old revision has the text I based it on. It does I think appear in later revisions, but here at least there is no citation. Therefore for now I would strike out that sentence. I suspect AR4 will offer a quote given a bit of reading which may support what was there or tell us what should be. I'll look when I get time. If anyone else fancies a look I suspect [7] may be a good starting point.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 19:25, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Good catch Kim. Somewhere along the way the end of the sentence read, or at least stuck in my mind, as "different climate sensitivity (period)."NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 21:59, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

OK got it. AR4 10.5 makes useful reading and my understanding after reading it supports the contention that the majority of uncertainty arises from uncertainties in the climate sensitivity but does not have a simple quotable statement to that effect. However AR4 [8] cites "Schneider von Deimling et al., 2006" which explicitly states "climate sensitivity is a main source of uncertainty in projections of future climate change." in the first para of the abstract.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 22:19, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I'm convinced AR4 10.5 supports the sentence, but of course new readers won't know that, and most won't follow the citation to read 10.5 to read for themselves. For the few who do, there's still too great a possibility lay readers will, like the son in the above example, make an unwitting inference that this is the only source of uncertainty. So although you found citations that use the term "uncertainty", let's us preserve the meaning while helping new readers by using the term "range" in the text you've evolved in the prior subsection.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:43, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

OK I've used "range", though I still have my doubts.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 08:59, 20 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks for compromising. What it comes down to for me is the purpose of this sentence. If the goal is to explain why there is a range of numbers for the lowest scenario instead of just a single temp, then "range" is best. If the goal is to talk about how confident we are that the result will fall within the range, that's something else and is much more complex. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 09:44, 20 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Natural disasters

Can this image be included:

. An estimate of the death toll per year would also be useful (death toll in 2003= 150000 people (ref= http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2003/12/61562 )

91.182.144.170 (talk) 13:55, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Global Warming is a big topic. While it may be notable I'm not sure it has sufficient weight for inclusion here. It would probably make a useful addition to Effects of global warming or Regional effects of global warming--IanOfNorwich (talk) 16:28, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

The image itself may be a copyright violation. The user that uploaded it has been careless in the past, and the documentation on this image is suspisciously weak. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 23:19, 19 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

This is junk. It is not science and is not supported by facts. Abel Love (talk) 04:13, 22 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Insufficient supporting citations for data presented on mapNewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 12:26, 22 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I think we have consensus that this image is not useable here. - J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 23:27, 25 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Biased towards science-based presentation?

It seems this article has been mostly written and curated by men and women of science. However, in an interest to better represent multiple viewpoints, I would like to see an approach to Global Warming observed by men of faith presented as an alternative POV. I don't think a point-by-point refutation of the science is appropriate, but I would like to see the broader issues of global warming discussed in communities of faith discussed, as its validity or lack thereof is critical to several individuals dealing with faith in contemporary America and Canada. I'm not certain if the "Global warming controversy" page is appropriate, as that appears to be geared towards political discussion and debate on the manner. CurtisJasper (talk) 07:56, 22 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I'm not entirely sure what you are aiming at. Do you think about people predicting the apocalypse before global warming becomes a major problem? Or people who believe that some Deus ex machina will somehow safe us? I'm a bit sceptical if there are reliable sources establishing this topic - could you list some? I don't see these aspects mentioned with any prominence in the debate here in Europe. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 08:38, 22 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

The article is not based on POV, it is based on verifiability which states "The threshold for inclusion in Wikipedia is verifiability, not truth". To include the POV of these men of faith and to warrant inclusion they would need to meet the same guidelines that the people of science have achieved. The information would need to be reliably sourced and a pretty good starting point, though not an obligation, would be that the material was published or commented upon in a mainstream journal, publication or paper. It should also be noted that though the article is in English, it is does not take an American bias but a position from a global viewpoint. Cheers ^Khukri 08:48, 22 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Wikipedia doesn't cover all viewpoints but instead aims to cover topics from neutral point of view. The views of religious leaders can be covered from a neutral point of view, as just that; their views. It would be hard to establish sufficient weight for inclusion in this article given the amount of information required to cover this broad topic. It would be easier to comment if you were more specific about what you thought to include. We do, by the way, try to assume good faith.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 10:06, 22 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Sorry, deleted my prior comment due to bad links. Must be pre coffee.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 12:57, 22 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

The idea this article is written by scientists is laughable. It is a political blog under the guise of "science" written by people who haven't the first clue that science is based on experimentation and not opinion polls.88.104.193.134 (talk) 11:53, 25 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

This article is about a scientific phenomenon. Specifically, it's about the fact that temperature readings when aggregated and averaged over the globe over all periods of the year have been rising for some decades at an accelerated rate. We have other articles covering various views on global warming. I wouldn't even be surprised if we had an article on religious views about global warming, and that would probably be a good topic for an article. Religious views, though, don't change scientific results. --TS 01:52, 23 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Maybe Religion and environmentalism would be a starting point Special:Contributions/CurtisJasper ? 99.56.122.17 (talk) 08:39, 24 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I have an interest in religion and how it interacts with environmentalism/ecology and what I've seen from the "men of faith" on the subject of climate change up to this point has, for the most part, not really been grounded in any kind of provable facts and the majority of their argument has been more along the lines of simply "because the bible says so". I was even debating this subject with one of these "men of faith" a few years ago and he had claimed that he had a vision in which God appeared to him and told him that human induced global warming was a myth to test people's faith; although, I do realise these kinds of people are the exception rather than the rule. If the opinion of men of faith isn't backed up by provable facts then I fail to see how they can be included in the article unless their opinion has had a significant impact on, for example, how a government deals with climate change and implements policy. --Connelly90[AlbaGuBràth] (talk) 12:38, 25 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I'm in touch with a few vicars and parish priests, and it seems to me that many of them are truly concerned about global warming and many other environmental issues. The same could be said of chefs, teachers, software developers, politicians, supermarket managers, social workers, surfers, musicians and other groups, in my experience. --Nigelj (talk) 15:44, 25 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

21st Century pause?

This thread lacks specific suggestions for improving the article.

This page is not a forum for general discussion about Climate change. Any such comments may be removed or refactored. Please limit discussion to improvement of this article. You may wish to ask factual questions about Climate change at the Reference desk.

Extended content

As everyone knows, there has been no significant warming this century. As everyone knows who knows anything about global warming, the climate "scientists" who run this page will never in a month of Sundays (30 years) admit that it isn't currently warming. However that doesn't stop it being against Wikipedia policy to hide the truth. 88.104.193.134 (talk) 12:21, 25 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

It is also against Wikipedia policy to make claims as grand as this without providing a reliable source to back it up, so evidence would be appriciated. --Connelly90[AlbaGuBràth] (talk) 13:07, 25 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

I can back up the fact that it has warmed since the start of this century - [9]. With a OLS trend of 0.04deg C per decade. As suggested this is a slower rate of warming than in the prior 10 years but it is still warming after having warmed a great deal the previous 10 years (0.25deg C), and the ten before that (0.07deg C). So what point is being made? In any case 10 or 11 years is not a good time frame for judging trends in atmospheric temperature - it's not long enough given the noise in the data. The recent slower rate of warming is not surprising given what solar output is doing. --IanOfNorwich (talk) 13:23, 25 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Aw, c'mon! spoiling my fun. I was baiting this guy to see what he comes up with. Well put together answer though; even if what the IP is claiming was true, coming to any kind of conclusion on the long term behaviour of something as ancient and complex as the Earth and it's atmosphere, based on the events of the past 10 years is a little bit daft. --Connelly90[AlbaGuBràth] (talk) 14:28, 25 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

You can see the satellite data here. Nothing I would I describe as a trend, least as far as 2002-2011 goes. Kauffner (talk) 15:27, 25 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Exactly the same data (UAH LT) is available here (but also plots allows you to plot a trend line) compare this graph to the one posted above - [10] - compare the numbers - exactly the same except this also has a least squares trend line rather than a CO2 plot. Now change the years in both the columns to 2000 to 2011 and it will plot the data and least squares trend for those years [11]. You can follow the raw data link at the bottom of the page and right near the bottom it shows "slope = 0.0174127 per year" or 0.174deg C per decade. Interesting that the UAH satelite trend 2000-2011 is much higher than the HADCRUT. NASAs GIS has 0.14deg C per decade for the same period. So there is a trend though as Kim says below it doesn't mean much over 11 years anyway. I should correct myself in that I think the HADCRUT trend I quoted above is already adjusted for solar radiance already the unadjusted showing a smaller trend.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 19:12, 25 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Please see the FAQ #Q3. Specifically paragraph 2. 10 years is not enough to determine a climatic trend. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 16:19, 25 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

See here:

"The huge increase in coal-fired power stations in China has masked the impact of global warming in the last decade because of the cooling effect of their sulphur emissions, new research has revealed. But scientists warn that rapid warming is likely to resume when the short-lived sulphur pollution – which also causes acid rain – is cleaned up and the full heating effect of long-lived carbon dioxide is felt.

The last decade was the hottest on record and the 10 warmest years have all occurred since 1998. But within that period, global surface temperatures did not show a rising trend, leading some to question whether climate change had stopped. The new study shows that while greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise, their warming effect on the climate was offset by the cooling produced by the rise in sulphur pollution. This combined with the sun entering a less intense part of its 11-year cycle and the peaking of the El Niño climate warming phenomenon.

The number of coal-fired power stations in China multiplied enormously in that period: the electricity-generating capacity rose from just over 10 gigawatts (GW) in 2002 to over 80GW in 2006 (a large plant has about 1GW capacity).

But rather than suggesting that cutting carbon emissions is less urgent due to the masking effect of the sulphur, Prof Robert Kaufman, at Boston University and who led the study, said: "If anything the paper suggests that reductions in carbon emissions will be more important as China installs scrubbers [on its coal-fired power stations], which reduce sulphur emissions. This, and solar insolation increasing as part of the normal solar cycle, [will mean] temperature is likely to increase faster."

Prof Joanna Haigh, at Imperial College London, commented: "The researchers are making the important point that the warming due to the CO2 released by Chinese industrialisation has been partially masked by cooling due to reflection of solar radiation by sulphur emissions. On longer timescales, with cleaner emissions, the warming effect will be more marked."

The cooling effect of sulphur pollution on climate has long been recognised by scientists studying volcanic eruptions, which have, for example, caused failed crops and famines in the past. Sulphur dioxide forms droplets of sulphuric acid in the stratosphere, which increases the reflection of the Sun's heat back to space, cooling the Earth's surface.

The effect also explains the lack of global temperature rise seen between 1940 and 1970: the effect of the sulphur emissions from increased coal burning outpaced that of carbon emissions, until acid rain controls were introduced, after which temperature rose quickly. Some have even proposed sulphur dioxide could used to geoengineer the planet by deliberately injecting millions of tonnes into the atmosphere to combat warming.

The new study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on Monday, analysed possible reasons for the flat 1998-2008 temperature trend using climate models and concluded that it was unlikely to be due simply to the random variation inherent in the planet's climate system. Instead it found the effect of sulphur, the sun and El Niño dominated, with the El Niño climate phase peaking in 1998 – the hottest year ever recorded – then moving into a phase dominated by its cooler mirror image, La Niña. The scientists ruled out changes in water vapour or carbon soot in the atmosphere as significant factors.

They emphasised the rapid increase in coal burning in Asia, and in China in particular, noting that Chinese coal consumption doubled between 2002 and 2007: the previous doubling had taken 22 years.

Michael E Mann, at Pennsylvania State University and not part of the research team, said the study was "a very solid, careful statistical analysis" which reinforces research showing "there is a clear impact of human activity on ongoing warming of our climate". It demonstrated, Mann said, that "the claim that 'global warming has stopped' is simply false." "

Count Iblis (talk) 15:53, 25 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Here's the study that article is based on in case anyone is interested: "Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998–2008" -1. Robert K. Kaufmann 2. Heikki Kauppi 3. Michael L. Mann 4. James H. Stock Abstract: "Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects."--IanOfNorwich (talk) 08:44, 26 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

And here is a very interesting critique about that study. In particular, note that the study on which deniers base their "cooling" claim lacks any mention of the main heat sink, e.g., the ocean, which has continued to warm. In addition the study's 10-year period starts with

a very strong (warming) El Niño and ends with a moderate (cooling) La Niña combined with an very low solar minimum. Yet the ocean kept warming.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 02:16, 27 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

It seems that the bottom line is that you can get whatever trend you want to get just by playing with the time interval and the data set. Global temperature is about same now as it was in the 1930s, cooler than it was in the Medieval Warm Period or the Roman Warm Period, cooler than it was in 1998, but on the other hand warmer than it was in the Little Ice Age. The Earth warms, the Earth cools, and so what? The long-term trend is certainly toward cooler temperatures. Some puny little SUVs aren't going to stop the Milankovitch cycles. Kauffner (talk) 02:59, 27 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

1930 till now: [12] 0.07 deg C per decade. You say you can get any trend you like by playing with the time scales - well follow the link and try I'll be surprised if you can find any 10 year period in the last 40 years that has a downward trend. But the question really is what period makes most sense to choose and the answer is the longest possible - given that we are considering the effect of CO2 etc since the start of the industrial revolution is a reasonable starting point till now. HadCRUT 1850 till now gives +0.04deg C per decade. You can then break it down and see that the rate of warming has increased over time. A few SUVs might not make any difference to the climate but 6 billion will.--IanOfNorwich (talk) 09:18, 27 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Resources ...

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In Science News by Nadia Drake July 30th, 2011; Vol.180 #3 (p. 17) ... Sulfur stalls surface temperature rise: Findings explain decade without warming ...

Also see http://esciencenews.com/sources/the.guardian.science/2011/07/04/sulphur.chinese.power.stations.masking.climate.change and The Guardian http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jul/04/sulphur-pollution-china-coal-climate 99.181.137.224 (talk) 02:47, 26 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

My daughter believed her teacher on Polar Bear's diminishing…

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Which of you (Kim ?) will now explain why your bias is more important than the truth and a child's perception ? All you have this on your conscience… Mk 71.228.95.196 (talk) 15:42, 28 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

In other news: scientists insist the earth really is flat.--- Nomen Nescio ^{Gnothi seauton}_{contributions} 16:34, 28 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Oh look: Attention: This template ({{cite doi}}) is deprecated. To cite the publication identified by doi:10.1093/icb/44.2.163, please use {{cite journal}} (if it was published in a bona fide academic journal, otherwise {{cite report}} with |doi=10.1093/icb/44.2.163 instead. . . dave souza, talk 18:04, 28 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

"New NASA Data Blow Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism"

I think this information should be incorporated into the article. I am including a link to the original scientific paper, as well as a secondary source.

Perhaps the article could say, "A 2011 peer reviewed scientific paper showed that real world measurements of heat trappage by carbon dioxide was less than what had been predicted by computer models." 74.98.32.99 (talk) 18:55, 28 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

-- 74.98.32.99 (talk) 18:09, 28 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Roy Spencer blows gaping hole in foot again, claims promoted by a senior fellow for environment policy at The Heartland Institute. Both have quite the track record on climate change. . . dave souza, talk 18:37, 28 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

This particular scientific paper was peer reviewed. It meets the criteria for inclusion in the article. There is no need to wage personal attacks on the author of the study - we should stick to the study itself. 74.98.32.99 (talk) 18:51, 28 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

At the moment I write this the link to the supposed peer reviewed paper is dead, so at the moment there's nothing there to incorporate. The Forbes piece, on the other hand, was an editorial written by someone at the Heartland Institute, the same folks that Big Tobacco used to attack the scientific finding that smoking causes cancer. Your were a bit vague how you think that information should be incorporated in the article. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 18:49, 28 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Perhaps the link isn't dead, and has just been overwhelmed by internet traffic. I do agree with you that if we can't access it, we shouldn't use it. Perhaps someone else with more knowledge of these things can find a more reliable link. 74.98.32.99 (talk) 18:51, 28 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:BT-FOWVtVQ4J:www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/3/8/1603/pdf+http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/3/8/1603/pdf&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=opera&source=www.google.com — Preceding unsigned comment added by 64.185.49.226 (talk) 18:54, 28 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

That's great - thanks for posting it! 74.98.32.99 (talk) 18:57, 28 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

Premature, no impact and comes from known fringe sources. . . dave souza, talk 18:59, 28 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

"no impact"? Have you read the article? --64.185.49.226 (talk) 19:37, 28 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

NASA "fringe" source? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 64.185.49.226 (talk) 19:06, 28 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

NASA is not the source. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 19:08, 28 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

The data is from NASA. That would make NASA the source.--64.185.49.226 (talk) 19:44, 28 July 2011 (UTC)[reply]

^ Recent Mauna Loa CO2
^ Recent Mauna Loa CO2 Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA Research.
^ http://www.nature.com/climate/2009/0910/full/climate.2009.95.html?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzEmail&utm_conte Planetary boundaries: Tangible targets are critical
^ Heffernan O (2009) A safe space Nature reports: climate change. Editorial, 2 October 2009. doi:10.1038/climate.2009.103
^ http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=boundaries-for-a-healthy-planet&page=5 Climate Change] in "Boundaries for a Healthy Planet" by J Foley et al., Scientific American, April 2010.
^ Earth's nine life-support systems: Climate change Fred Pearce, New Scientist, 24 February 2010.

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	:NASA is not the source. --[[User:Stephan Schulz\|Stephan Schulz]] ([[User talk:Stephan Schulz\|talk]]) 19:08, 28 July 2011 (UTC)		:NASA is not the source. --[[User:Stephan Schulz\|Stephan Schulz]] ([[User talk:Stephan Schulz\|talk]]) 19:08, 28 July 2011 (UTC)
			::The data is from NASA. That would make NASA the source.--[[Special:Contributions/64.185.49.226\|64.185.49.226]] ([[User talk:64.185.49.226\|talk]]) 19:44, 28 July 2011 (UTC)