2016 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary
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| Elections in New Hampshire |
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The 2016 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary was held on Tuesday February 9. As per tradition, it was the first primary and second nominating contest overall to take place in the cycle. Bernie Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton in the primary by a margin of more than 22% in the popular vote. Sanders claimed 15 delegates to Clinton's 9.[1]
It occurred on the same day as the Republican primary.
Debates and forums
December 2015 debate in Goffstown
On December 19, 2015, the Democratic Party held their third debate at St. Anselm College in Goffstown, New Hampshire. Hosted by "World News Tonight" anchor David Muir and Chief Global Affairs Correspondent Martha Raddatz, it aired on ABC News.[2] Before the debate, WMUR-TV's co-sponsorship had been revoked by the DNC due to a labor dispute. Participants were Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O'Malley.
The topics covered during the debate included Sanders' campaign's breach of Clinton's campaign data, strategy for defeating ISIS, gun control, the issue of whether to depose President Assad of Syria, if Wall Street favored each candidate, stability in the Middle East enforced by dictators and whether regime change was necessary, and the role of the First Spouse.[3]
February 2016 forum in Derry
A fifth forum, a Town Hall event, was held on February 3, 2016, in Derry, New Hampshire. It aired on CNN.[4]
Lesser known candidates forum at Goffstown
One of the highlights of the campaign is when the non-recognized candidates gather together to introduce themselves to the public at this event, which first was held in 1972.[5]
Due to the notorious glitter-bombing incident of the previous cycle, Vermin Supreme was pointedly dis-invited,[6] but showed up anyway, and made the national news. Eighteen people showed up: Jon Adams, Eric Elbot, Rocky De La Fuente, Mark Greenstein, Henry Hewes, William McGaughey, Edward O'Donnell, Graham Schwass, Sam Sloan, Edward Sonnino, Michael Steinberg, and several others.
February 2016 debate in Durham
Unlike in previous years, initially, only a single authorized debate was scheduled to be held in New Hampshire. Initially planned as an unsanctioned debate, a debate on February 4 in Durham, New Hampshire was however later confirmed by the DNC. Hosted by Chuck Todd and Rachel Maddow, it was broadcast by NBC News. While Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O'Malley all confirmed their participation, O'Malley eventually came to suspend his campaign prior to the debate.
Commentators of the debate cited the elevated discourse between the candidates. There was discussion on the death penalty (federal versus state), money in politics, and assessing Iran, North Korea and Russia as threats to national security. Clinton demanded that Sanders explain his "artful smears" of Clinton receiving campaign donations. Sanders responded by critiquing the inherently "quid-pro-quo" nature of Wall Street campaign donations. The exchange between the two candidates was called by Eric Levitz one of the best 10-minute exchanges in the history of American political debates.[7]
Candidates
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This is a list of the candidates[8] on the ballot in the New Hampshire primary.
The following notable candidates had participated in all authorized debates:
- Hillary Clinton of New York (campaign), United States Secretary of State (2009–2013), presidential candidate in 2008, United States Senator from New York (2001–2009), First Lady of the United States (1993–2001)
- Bernie Sanders of Vermont (campaign), United States Senator from Vermont (2007–present), United States Representative from Vermont (1991–2007), Mayor of Burlington (1981–1989)
- Martin O'Malley of Maryland (campaign), Governor of Maryland (2007–2015), Mayor of Baltimore (1999–2007). By this time, O'Malley had withdrawn from the race.
The following candidates have not been invited to any major debates or listed in national polls, but were notable enough to have Wikipedia articles written about them:
- Rocky De La Fuente of California, businessman
- Keith Russell Judd of Texas, perennial candidate[9][10]
- Sam Sloan of New York, former chess administrator and 2012 Libertarian Party candidate
- Vermin Supreme of Massachusetts, performance artist and perennial candidate[11][12]
- John Wolfe, Jr. of Tennessee, attorney, Democratic Party nominee for U.S. House of Representatives for Tennessee's 3rd congressional district, 2002, 2004, 2010[13][14]
In addition to appearing on the New Hampshire primary ballot, the following candidates were on the primary ballot in one or more other state(s):
- Steve Burke, former St. Lawrence County Democratic Committee Chair
- Henry Hewes
- Michael Steinberg, lawyer, candidate U.S. House of Representatives 2006
- Star Locke of Texas, rancher
- James Valentine of Virginia, political philosopher[15][16][17]
The following were not listed on the primary ballot in any state(s) other than New Hampshire:[18]
- Jon Adams of New York
- Eric Elbot of Massachusetts
- Bill French of Pennsylvania
- Mark Stewart Greenstein of Connecticut
- Brock C. Hutton of Maryland
- Lloyd Kelso of North Carolina
- Steven Roy Lipscomb of New Mexico
- Robert Lovitt of Kentucky
- William H. McGaughey, Jr. of Minnesota
- Raymond Michael Moroz of New York
- Edward T. O'Donnell, Jr.
- Edward Sonnino
- Graham Schwass
- David John Thistle of New Hampshire
- Richard Lyons Weil of Colorado
Opinion polling
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official Primary results | February 9, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 60.1% |
Hillary Clinton 37.7% |
Others / Uncommitted 2.2% | |
| American Research Group[19] Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 408 |
February 6–7, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 53% |
Hillary Clinton 41% |
Undecided 6% | |
| University of Massachusetts-Lowell/7 News survey[20] Margin of error: ± 5.38% Sample size: 428 |
February 4–6, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 57% |
Hillary Clinton 40% |
Others / Undecided 3% | |
| University of Massachusetts-Lowell/7 News survey[21] Margin of error: ± 5.3% Sample size: 442 |
January 29–31, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 61% |
Hillary Clinton 30% |
Martin O'Malley 1% |
Undecided 6% |
| CNN/WMUR[22] Margin of error: ± 5.3% Sample size: 347 |
January 27–30, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 57% |
Hillary Clinton 34% |
Martin O'Malley 1% |
Other, Undecided, or Not Committed 9% |
| Emerson College[23]
Margin of error ± 5.2%
|
January 25–26, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 52% |
Hillary Clinton 44% |
Martin O'Malley 3% |
Other 1% |
| American Research Group[24]
Margin of error ± 4%
|
January 23–25, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 49% |
Hillary Clinton 42% |
Martin O'Malley 3% |
Other 6% |
| Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald[25]
Margin of error ± 4.9%
|
January 20–24, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 55% |
Hillary Clinton 39% |
Martin O'Malley 2% |
Other 5% |
| Fox News[26]
Margin of error ± 4.5%
|
January 18–21, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 56% |
Hillary Clinton 34% |
Martin O'Malley 3% |
Other 7% |
| CBS News/YouGov[27]
Margin of error ± 6.2%
|
January 18–21, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 57% |
Hillary Clinton 38% |
Martin O'Malley 5% |
No preference 0% |
| Suffolk University[28]
Margin of error –
|
January 17–21, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 50% |
Hillary Clinton 41% |
Martin O'Malley 2% |
Other/Undecided 7% |
| American Research Group[29]
Margin of error ± 4%
|
January 15–18, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 49% |
Hillary Clinton 43% |
Martin O'Malley 3% |
Undecided 5% |
| Gravis Marketing[30]
Margin of error ± 4.5%
|
January 15–18, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 46% |
Hillary Clinton 43% |
Martin O'Malley 2% |
Undecided 8% |
| CNN and WMUR[31]
Margin of error ± 4.8%
|
January 13–18, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 60% |
Hillary Clinton 33% |
Martin O'Malley 1% |
Undecided 6% |
| Monmouth University Poll[32]
Margin of error ± 4.8%
|
January 7–10, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 53% |
Hillary Clinton 39% |
Martin O'Malley 5% |
Undecided 3% |
| Fox News[33]
Margin of error ± 5%
|
January 4–7, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 50% |
Hillary Clinton 37% |
Martin O'Malley 3% |
Other 2%, None of the above 5%, Don't know 3% |
| NBC News/WSJ/Marist
Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 425 |
January 2–7, 2016 | Bernie Sanders 50% |
Hillary Clinton 46% |
Martin O'Malley 1% |
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group[29]
Margin of error ± 4%
|
December 20–22, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 46% |
Bernie Sanders 43% |
Martin O'Malley 3% |
Other <0.5%, Undecided 7% |
| YouGov/CBS News[34]
Margin of error ± 5.7%
|
December 14–17, 2015 | Bernie Sanders 56% |
Hillary Clinton 42% |
Martin O'Malley 1% |
No preference 1% |
| Boston Herald[35]
Margin of error ± 4.8%
|
December 13–17, 2015 | Bernie Sanders 48% |
Hillary Clinton 46% |
Martin O'Malley 2% |
Undecided 4% |
| CNN and WMUR[36]
Margin of error: ± 5.1%
|
November 30 – December 7, 2015 | Bernie Sanders 50% |
Hillary Clinton 40% |
Martin O'Malley 1% |
Someone Else/Not Sure 6% |
| Public Policy Polling[37]
Margin of error: ± 4.6%
|
November 30 – December 2, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 44% |
Bernie Sanders 42% |
Martin O'Malley 8% |
Someone Else/Not Sure 7% |
| YouGov/CBS News[38]
Margin of error: ± 5.2%
|
November 15–19, 2015 | Bernie Sanders 52% |
Hillary Clinton 45% |
Martin O'Malley 3% | Undecided 0% |
| Fox News[39]
Margin of error: ± 3.5%
|
November 15–17, 2015 | Bernie Sanders 45% |
Hillary Clinton 44% |
Martin O'Malley 5% | None 1%, Don't Know 5% |
| Gravis Marketing[40]
Margin of error: ± 6.7%
|
November 11, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 46% |
Bernie Sanders 25% |
Martin O'Malley 3% |
Unsure 26% |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute[41]
Margin of error: ± 4.9%
|
October 29 – November 1, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 48% |
Bernie Sanders 45% |
Martin O'Malley 3% |
Lawrence Lessig 1% |
| YouGov/CBS News[42]
Margin of error: ± 7.1%
|
October 15–22, 2015 | Bernie Sanders 54% |
Hillary Clinton 39% |
Martin O'Malley 3% | Lincoln Chafee 0%, Lawrence Lessig 0%, No preference 3% |
| Public Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 4.9%
|
October 16–18, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 41% |
Bernie Sanders 33% |
Joe Biden 11% |
Martin O'Malley 4%, Lincoln Chafee 2%, Jim Webb 2%, Lawrence Lessig 0%, Not Sure 7% |
| Bloomberg/San Anselm Poll[43]
Margin of error: ± 4.9%
|
October 15–18, 2015 | Bernie Sanders 41% |
Hillary Clinton 36% |
Joe Biden 10% |
Jim Webb 1%, Lawrence Lessig 1%, Someone Else 1%, None of the Above 2%, Not Sure 8% |
| Franklin Pierce-Herald[44]
Margin of error: ± 4.9%
|
October 14–17, 2015 | Bernie Sanders 38% |
Hillary Clinton 30% |
Joe Biden 19% |
Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 1% |
| Boston Globe/Suffolk University[45]
Margin of error: ± 4.4%
|
October 14–15, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 36.8% |
Bernie Sanders 35.4% |
Joe Biden 11.2% |
Jim Webb 2.6%, Martin O'Malley 1.4%, Lincoln Chafee 0.6%, Lawrence Lessig 0.2%, Undecided 11.6% |
| Gravis Marketing[46]
Margin of error: ± 5.1%
|
October 5–6, 2015 | Bernie Sanders 32.8% |
Hillary Clinton 30.2% |
Joe Biden 10.6% |
Martin O'Malley 1.5%, Jim Webb 0.7%, Lincoln Chafee 0.8%, Undecided 23.3% |
| NBC News/WSJ/Marist[47]
Margin of error: ± 4.9%
|
September 23–30, 2015 | Bernie Sanders 42% |
Hillary Clinton 28% |
Joe Biden 18% |
Martin O'Malley 2%, Jim Webb 1%, Lincoln Chafee 1%, Undecided 9% |
| Bernie Sanders 48% |
Hillary Clinton 39% |
Lincoln Chafee 2% | Martin O'Malley 2%, Jim Webb 1%, Undecided 9% | ||
| UNH/WMUR[48]
Margin of error: ± 5.5%
|
September 17–23, 2015 | Bernie Sanders 46% |
Hillary Clinton 30% |
Joe Biden 14% |
Martin O'Malley 2%, Jim Webb 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Someone else 1%, Don't Know Yet 6% |
| MassINC/WBUR/NPR[49]
Margin of error: ± 4.9%
|
September 12–15, 2015 | Bernie Sanders 35% |
Hillary Clinton 31% |
Joe Biden 14% |
Jim Webb 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 1%, Did not know/refused 10%, Some other candidate 4%, Would not vote 2% |
| Monmouth University[50]
Margin of error: ± 4.9%
|
September 10–13, 2015 | Bernie Sanders 43% |
Hillary Clinton 36% |
Joe Biden 13% |
Martin O'Malley 2%, Lincoln Chafee 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Lawrence Lessig 1%, other 1%, undecided 3% |
| YouGov/CBS News[51]
Margin of error: ± 7.4%
|
September 3–10, 2015 | Bernie Sanders 52% |
Hillary Clinton 30% |
Joe Biden 9% |
Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Jim Webb 0%, No preference 8% |
| NBC News/Marist Poll[52]
Margin of error: ± 5.2%
|
Published September 6, 2015 | Bernie Sanders 41% |
Hillary Clinton 32% |
Joe Biden 16% |
Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee <1%, Undecided 8% |
| Bernie Sanders 49% |
Hillary Clinton 38% |
Jim Webb 2% |
Lincoln Chafee 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Undecided 8% | ||
| Public Policy Polling[53]
Margin of error: ± 5.1%
|
August 21–24, 2015 | Bernie Sanders 42% |
Hillary Clinton 35% |
Jim Webb 6% |
Martin O'Malley 4%, Lincoln Chafee 2%, Lawrence Lessig 1%, Not sure 10% |
| Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald[54]
Margin of error: ± 4.7%
|
August 7–10, 2015 | Bernie Sanders 44% |
Hillary Clinton 37% |
Joe Biden 9% |
Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley <1%, Lincoln Chafee <1%, Other/Not sure 9% |
| Gravis Marketing/One America News[55] Margin of error: ± 4.5%
|
July 31 – August 3, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 43% |
Bernie Sanders 39% |
Elizabeth Warren 8% |
Joe Biden 6%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Jim Webb 2%, Lincoln Chafee 0% |
| UNH/WMUR[56]
Margin of error: ± 5.9%
|
July 22–30, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 42% |
Bernie Sanders 36% |
Joe Biden 5% |
Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Someone else 3%, Don't Know Yet 12% |
| NBC News/Marist[57]
Margin of error: ± 5.4%
|
July 14–21, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 42% |
Bernie Sanders 32% |
Joe Biden 12% |
Martin O'Malley 3%, Lincoln Chafee 2%, Jim Webb 1%, Undecided 10% |
| CNN/WMUR[58]
Margin of error: ± 5.2%
|
June 18–24, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 43% |
Bernie Sanders 35% |
Joe Biden 8% |
Martin O'Malley 2%, Jim Webb 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Someone else 2%, Not sure 9% |
| Bloomberg/Saint Anselm
Margin of error: ± 4.9%
|
June 19–22, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 56% |
Bernie Sanders 24% |
Martin O'Malley 2% |
Lincoln Chafee 1%, None of the above 4%, Not sure 12% |
| Suffolk
Margin of error: ± 4.4%
|
June 11–15, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 41% |
Bernie Sanders 31% |
Joe Biden 7% |
Martin O'Malley 3%, Lincoln Chafee 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Other 0%, Undecided 15% |
| Morning Consult
Margin of error: ± 6%
|
May 31 – June 8, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 44% |
Bernie Sanders 32% |
Joe Biden 8% |
Martin O'Malley 2%, Jim Webb 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Someone else 0%, Don't know/no opinion 11% |
| Purple Strategies
Margin of error: ± 4.9%
|
May 2–6, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 62% |
Bernie Sanders 18% |
Joe Biden 5% |
Martin O'Malley 3%, Lincoln Chafee 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Someone else 0%, None of the above 3%, Not sure 8% |
| UNH/WMUR
Margin of error: ± 6.5%
|
April 24 – May 3, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 51% |
Elizabeth Warren 20% |
Bernie Sanders 13% |
Andrew Cuomo 3%, Joe Biden 2%, Lincoln Chafee 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Undecided 8% |
| Gravis Marketing
Margin of error: ± 5%
|
April 21–22, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 45% |
Elizabeth Warren 24% |
Bernie Sanders 12% |
Joe Biden 7%, Martin O'Malley 4%, Lincoln Chafee 2%, Jim Webb 2%, Bill de Blasio 0.4%, Undecided 5% |
| Hillary Clinton 54% |
Bernie Sanders 19% |
Joe Biden 10% |
Martin O'Malley 5%, Jim Webb 4%, Lincoln Chafee 2%, Bill de Blasio 1%, Undecided 6% | ||
| Public Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 5.4%
|
April 9–13, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 45% |
Elizabeth Warren 23% |
Bernie Sanders 12% |
Joe Biden 7%, Martin O'Malley 3%, Lincoln Chafee 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Other/Undecided 9% |
| Franklin Pierce University/Boston Herald
Margin of error: ± 4.7%
|
March 22–25, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 47% |
Elizabeth Warren 22% |
Joe Biden 10% |
Bernie Sanders 8%, Andrew Cuomo 4%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb <1%, Other 3%, Unsure 5% |
| Hillary Clinton 41% |
Elizabeth Warren 20% |
Al Gore 16% |
Joe Biden 7%, Bernie Sanders 6%, Andrew Cuomo 1%, Martin O'Malley <1%, Jim Webb <1%, Other 2%, Unsure 6% | ||
| Gravis Marketing
Margin of error: ± 5%
|
March 18–19, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 49% |
Elizabeth Warren 20% |
Bernie Sanders 12% |
Joe Biden 5%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Jim Webb 2%, Unsure 10% |
| NBC News/Marist
Margin of error: ± 5.6%
|
February 3–10, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 69% |
Bernie Sanders 13% |
Joe Biden 8% |
Jim Webb 2%, Martin O'Malley <1%, Undecided 7% |
| Purple Strategies
Margin of error: ± 4.9%
|
January 31 – February 5, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 56% |
Elizabeth Warren 15% |
Joe Biden 8% |
Bernie Sanders 8%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Jim Webb 0%, Someone else 0%, None of the above 2%, Not sure 11% |
| Gravis Marketing
Margin of error: ± 5%
|
February 2–3, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 44% |
Elizabeth Warren 25% |
Bernie Sanders 13% |
Joe Biden 5%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Unsure 10% |
| UNH/WMUR
Margin of error: ± 5.7%
|
January 22 – February 3, 2015 | Hillary Clinton 58% |
Elizabeth Warren 14% |
Joe Biden 8% |
Bernie Sanders 6%, Andrew Cuomo 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Someone else 1%, Don't know yet 9% |
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purple Insights
Margin of error: ± 4.9%
|
November 12–18, 2014 | Hillary Clinton 62% |
Elizabeth Warren 13% |
Bernie Sanders 6% |
Joe Biden 5%, Deval Patrick 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Someone else 0%, None of the above 2%, Not sure 8% |
| New England College
Margin of error: ± 4.06%
|
October 31 – November 1, 2014 | Hillary Clinton 53.1% |
Elizabeth Warren 16.8% |
Bernie Sanders 7% |
Joe Biden 5.8%, Martin O'Malley 2.3%, Deval Patrick 1.4%, Andrew Cuomo 1.2%, Kirsten Gillibrand 1.2%, Mark Warner 1.2%, Other 10% |
| UMass Amherst
Margin of error: ± ?
|
October 10–15, 2014 | Hillary Clinton 49% |
Elizabeth Warren 16% |
Bernie Sanders 11% |
Joe Biden 6%, Andrew Cuomo 3%, Deval Patrick 3%, Martin O'Malley <1%, Cory Booker <1%, Other 11% |
| WMUR/UNH
Margin of error: ± 5.9%
|
September 29 – October 5, 2014 | Hillary Clinton 58% |
Elizabeth Warren 18% |
Joe Biden 3% |
Martin O'Malley 3%, Bernie Sanders 3%, Andrew Cuomo 1%, Mark Warner <1%, Other 1%, Undecided 13% |
| CNN/ORC
Margin of error: ± 5.5%
|
September 8–11, 2014 | Hillary Clinton 60% |
Elizabeth Warren 11% |
Joe Biden 8% |
Bernie Sanders 7%, Deval Patrick 4%, Andrew Cuomo 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Other 1%, None/No one 2%, No opinion 6% |
| NBC News/Marist
Margin of error: ± 4.5%
|
July 7–13, 2014 | Hillary Clinton 74% |
Joe Biden 18% |
Undecided 8% | |
| WMUR/UNH
Margin of error: ± 6.1%
|
June 19 – July 1, 2014 | Hillary Clinton 59% |
Joe Biden 14% |
Elizabeth Warren 8% |
Bernie Sanders 5%, Andrew Cuomo 3%, Mark Warner 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Other 1%, Undecided 9% |
| WMUR/UNH
Margin of error: ± 7.2%
|
April 1–9, 2014 | Hillary Clinton 65% |
Joe Biden 6% |
Andrew Cuomo 4% |
Mark Warner 2%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Other 5%, Undecided 18% |
| WMUR/UNH
Margin of error: ± 6.2%
|
January 21–26, 2014 | Hillary Clinton 74% |
Joe Biden 10% |
Andrew Cuomo 2% |
Mark Warner 1%, Martin O'Malley <1%, Brian Schweitzer <1%, Kirsten Gillibrand 0%, Other 2%, Undecided 10% |
| Purple Strategies
Margin of error: ± 5.4%
|
January 21–23, 2014 | Hillary Clinton 68% |
Elizabeth Warren 13% |
Joe Biden 6% |
Deval Patrick 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Other 2%, None 1%, Undecided 5% |
| Public Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 4.4%
|
January 9–12, 2014 | Hillary Clinton 65% |
Joe Biden 10% |
Elizabeth Warren 8% |
Andrew Cuomo 3%, Cory Booker 2%, Kirsten Gillibrand 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Mark Warner 0%, Someone else/Not sure 9% |
| Joe Biden 32% |
Elizabeth Warren 21% |
Andrew Cuomo 9% |
Cory Booker 4%, Kirsten Gillibrand 4%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Brian Schweitzer 1%, Mark Warner 1%, Someone else/Not sure 26% | ||
| Elizabeth Warren 30% |
Andrew Cuomo 19% |
Cory Booker 9% |
Martin O'Malley 5%, Kirsten Gillibrand 4%, Brian Schweitzer 2%, Mark Warner 2%, Someone else/Not sure 28% |
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMUR/UNH
Margin of error: ± 6.2%
|
October 7–16, 2013 | Hillary Clinton 64% |
Joe Biden 6% |
Elizabeth Warren 6% |
Andrew Cuomo 2%, Deval Patrick 1%, Evan Bayh <1%, Cory Booker <1%, Martin O'Malley <1%, Mark Warner <1%, Kirsten Gillibrand 0%, John Hickenlooper 0%, Other 2%, Unsure 18% |
| Public Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 4.6%
|
September 13–16, 2013 | Hillary Clinton 57% |
Joe Biden 12% |
Elizabeth Warren 11% |
Cory Booker 4%, Andrew Cuomo 2%, Kirsten Gillibrand 1%, Mark Warner 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Someone else/Not sure 11% |
| Joe Biden 36% |
Elizabeth Warren 20% |
Cory Booker 9% |
Andrew Cuomo 7%, Kirsten Gillibrand 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Brian Schweitzer 1%, Mark Warner 1%, Someone else/Not sure 23% | ||
| Elizabeth Warren 33% |
Andrew Cuomo 14% |
Cory Booker 12% |
Kirsten Gillibrand 5%, Martin O'Malley 4%, Mark Warner 2%, Brian Schweitzer 1%, Someone else/Not sure 30% | ||
| WMUR/UNH
Margin of error: ± 7.1%
|
July 18–29, 2013 | Hillary Clinton 62% |
Joe Biden 8% |
Deval Patrick 5% |
Cory Booker 2%, Andrew Cuomo 1%, Evan Bayh <1%, Kirsten Gillibrand <1%, John Hickenlooper <1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Mark Warner 0%, Other 2%, Unsure 19% |
| New England College
Margin of error: ± 5.37%
|
July, 2013 | Hillary Clinton 65% |
Joe Biden 8% |
Jeanne Shaheen 6% |
Andrew Cuomo 1.5%, Martin O'Malley 0.6%, Unsure 19% |
| New England College
Margin of error: ± 5.5%
|
May, 2013 | Hillary Clinton 65% |
Joe Biden 10% |
Elizabeth Warren 5% |
Andrew Cuomo 4%, Deval Patrick 3%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Unsure 13% |
| Public Policy Polling
Margin of error: ± 5.1%
|
April 19–21, 2013 | Hillary Clinton 68% |
Joe Biden 12% |
Elizabeth Warren 5% |
Andrew Cuomo 3%, Deval Patrick 2%, Kirsten Gillibrand 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Mark Warner 0%, Someone Else/Undecided 9% |
| Joe Biden 44% |
Elizabeth Warren 12% |
Andrew Cuomo 9% |
Deval Patrick 9%, Kirsten Gillibrand 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Brian Schweitzer 1%, Mark Warner 1%, Someone Else/Undecided 21% | ||
| Andrew Cuomo 23% |
Elizabeth Warren 22% |
Deval Patrick 17% |
Kirsten Gillibrand 4%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Brian Schweitzer 1%, Mark Warner 1%, Someone Else/Undecided 30% | ||
| WMUR/UNH
Margin of error: ± 7.1%
|
April 4–9, 2013 | Hillary Clinton 61% |
Joe Biden 7% |
Andrew Cuomo 3% |
Deval Patrick 3%, Mark Warner 2%, Evan Bayh 1%, Cory Booker 1%, John Hickenlooper 0%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Antonio Villaraigosa 0%, Someone Else 2%, Undecided 22% |
| WMUR/UNH
Margin of error: ± 7%
|
Jan. 30–Feb. 5, 2013 | Hillary Clinton 63% |
Joe Biden 10% |
Andrew Cuomo 5% |
Cory Booker 2%, Evan Bayh 1%, Deval Patrick 1%, Brian Schweitzer 1%, John Hickenlooper <1%, Martin O'Malley <1%, Antonio Villaraigosa <1%, Mark Warner <1%, Someone Else 1%, Undecided 16% |
Results
| New Hampshire Democratic primary, February 9, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Popular vote | Estimated delegates | |||
| Count | Of total | Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |
| Bernie Sanders | 152,193 | 60.14% | 15 | 1 | 16 |
| Hillary Clinton | 95,355 | 37.68% | 9 | 6 | 15 |
| Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) | 667 | 0.26% | |||
| Vermin Supreme | 268 | 0.11% | |||
| David John Thistle | 226 | 0.09% | |||
| Graham Schwass | 143 | 0.06% | |||
| Steve Burke | 108 | 0.04% | |||
| Rocky De La Fuente | 96 | 0.04% | |||
| John Wolfe Jr. | 54 | 0.02% | |||
| Jon Adams | 53 | 0.02% | |||
| Lloyd Thomas Kelso | 46 | 0.02% | |||
| Keith Russell Judd | 44 | 0.02% | |||
| Eric Elbot | 36 | 0.01% | |||
| Star Locke | 33 | 0.01% | |||
| William D. French | 29 | 0.01% | |||
| Mark Stewart Greenstein | 29 | 0.01% | |||
| Edward T. O'Donnell | 26 | 0.01% | |||
| James Valentine | 24 | 0.01% | |||
| Robert Lovitt | 22 | 0.01% | |||
| Michael Steinberg | 21 | 0.01% | |||
| William H. McGaughey Jr. | 19 | 0.01% | |||
| Henry Hewes | 18 | 0.01% | |||
| Edward Sonnino | 17 | 0.01% | |||
| Steven Roy Lipscomb | 15 | 0.01% | |||
| Sam Sloan | 15 | 0.01% | |||
| Brock C. Hutton | 14 | 0.01% | |||
| Raymond Michael Moroz | 8 | 0.00% | |||
| Richard Lyons Weil | 8 | 0.00% | |||
| Write-ins[b] | 3,475 | 1.37% | |||
| Uncommitted | — | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Total | 253,062 | 100% | 24 | 8 | 32 |
| Sources: The Green Papers,[61] New Hampshire Secretary of State[62] | |||||
Results by county
Sanders won every county.[63]
| County | Clinton | Votes | Sanders | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belknap | 35.7% | 3,490 | 61.3% | 5,990 |
| Carroll | 36.0% | 3,230 | 63.1% | 5,655 |
| Cheshire | 29.0% | 5,166 | 70.1% | 12,471 |
| Coös | 35.0% | 2,013 | 63.2% | 3,637 |
| Grafton | 32.3% | 6,918 | 66.6% | 14,258 |
| Hillsborough | 41.3% | 28,099 | 56.7% | 38,646 |
| Merrimack | 39.8% | 12,209 | 59.0% | 18,076 |
| Rockingham | 41.6% | 22,829 | 56.7% | 31,080 |
| Strafford | 35.1% | 8,801 | 63.2% | 15,865 |
| Sullivan | 29.0% | 2,497 | 68.5% | 5,906 |
Analysis
Sanders scored a landslide 22-point routing in the New Hampshire primary, thanks to what The New York Times described as a "harness [of] working-class fury"[64] against the so-called "establishment" candidates like Hillary Clinton, in a state known for its rebellious electorate. Sanders' win was propelled by younger voters, whom he won 74–25, men whom he won 67–32, self-identified Independents whom he won 73–25, and white voters whom he won 61-37 and who comprised 91% of the Democratic electorate in New Hampshire. According to exit polls, a 53-45 majority of voters thought Clinton was not honest or trustworthy, while 89% said Sanders was honest. 61% of voters said they were dissatisfied or angry about the federal government. Sanders swept all income levels and educational attainment levels in New Hampshire, except those who made more than $200k per year.
Sanders swept all of the major cities, including Nashua, Dover, Concord, and Manchester. Sanders won along the seacoast 59–41, in the Manchester/Nashua area 54–44, in Concord/Ct. Valley 64–35, in the south 59–39, and in the north 65–33.[65] Clinton only won three towns: Bedford, Millsfield, and Windham.[66]
Sanders' landslide victory was a clear regression for Clinton from 2008, when she had narrowly beaten Barack Obama in the 2008 New Hampshire primary thanks to support from populous southern New Hampshire. Both Sanders' percentage of the vote and margin of victory are the largest in a Democratic New Hampshire primary since John F. Kennedy in 1960.
See also
References
- Notes
- ^ The Associated Press did not report results from municipalities where there were five or fewer registered voters.[59]
- ^ The write-ins include 3,248 votes for these 11 Republican presidential candidates: Trump (1795), Kasich (438), Jeb Bush (263), Christie (216), Marco Rubio (203), Ted Cruz (162), Fiorina (99), Carson (52), Paul (12), Gilmore (6), Huckabee (2).[60]
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