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Nuclear weapons and Israel

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Israel
Location of Israel
Nuclear program start dateearly 1950s
First nuclear weapon testpossible September 22, 1979
Total testsunknown
Current stockpileest. 70-400 warheads[1]
Nuclear weapons
Photograph of a mock-up of the Little Boy nuclear weapon dropped on Hiroshima, Japan, in August 1945.
Background
Nuclear-armed states
NPT recognized
United States
Russia
United Kingdom
France
China
Others
India
Israel (undeclared)
Pakistan
North Korea
Former
South Africa
Belarus
Kazakhstan
Ukraine

Israel was the sixth country in the world to develop nuclear weapons, although it maintains an official policy of "nuclear opacity" and says that it "will not be the first country to introduce nuclear weapons in the Middle East." It is one of four nuclear-armed countries not recognized as a Nuclear Weapons State by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the other three being India, Pakistan and North Korea,[2] and the International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei regards Israel as a state possessing nuclear weapons.[3] Israel began investigating the nuclear field just one year after its founding and with French support secretly began building a nuclear reactor and reprocessing plant in the late 1950s. Although Israel first built a nuclear weapon in 1967-68 it was not publicly confirmed from the inside until Mordechai Vanunu, a former Israeli nuclear technician, revealed details of the program to the British press in 1986. Israel is currently believed to possess 70 to 400 nuclear warheads with the ability to deliver them with by air, missile, and submarine.

Development history

Pre-Dimona 1949-1956

Israel first showed interest in procuring nuclear materials in 1949, when a unit of the IDF Science Corps, known by the Hebrew acronym HEMED GIMMEL, carried out a two year geological survey of the Negev. While a preliminary study was initially prompted rumors of oil fields, one objective of the longer two year survey was to find sources of uranium; some small recoverable amounts were found in phosphate deposits.[1] That same year, the Science Corps (HEMED) funded six Israeli physics graduate students to study overseas, including one to go to the University of Chicago and study under Enrico Fermi, who had overseen the world's first artificial and self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction.[4]

In early 1952 HEMED was moved from the IDF to the Ministry of Defense and was reorganized as the Division of Research and Infrastructure (EMET). That June, Ernst David Bergmann, the chief of research at the Defense Ministry and Prime Minister David Ben Gurion's scientific advisor, was appointed by Ben-Gurion to be the first chairman of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC).[5] HEMED GIMMEL was renamed Machon 4 during the transfer, and was used by Bergmann as the "chief laboratory" of the IAEC; by 1953, Machon 4, working with the Department of Isotope Research at the Weizmann Institute, developed the capability to extract uranium from the phosphate in the Negev and new technique to produce indigenous heavy water.[1][6] Bergmann, who was interested in increasing nuclear cooperation with the French, sold both patents to the Commissariat à l'énergie atomique (CEA) for 60 million francs. Although they were never commercialized, it was a consequential step for future French-Israeli cooperation.[7] At the same time Israeli scientists were also observing France's own nuclear program, and were the only foreign scientists allowed to roam "at will" at the nuclear facility at Marcoule.[8]

After US President Dwight Eisenhower announced the Atoms for Peace initiative Israel became the second country to sign on (following Turkey), and signed a peaceful nuclear cooperation agreement with the United States on July 12, 1955.[9] This culminated in a public signing ceremony on March 20, 1957 to construct a "small swimming-pool research reactor in Nachal Soreq," which would be used to shroud the construction of a much larger facility with the French at Dimona.[10]

Dimona 1956-1965

Main article: Negev Nuclear Research Center

Negotiation

The French decision to help Israel build a nuclear reactor was not without precedent; in September 1955 Canada publicly announced that it would help the Indian government build a heavy-water research reactor for "peaceful purposes."[11] When Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal France asked Israel to cross the Sinai as part of a tripartite operation with Britain, and Shimon Peres, sensing the opportunity on the nuclear reactor, accepted. On September 17, 1956, Peres and Bergmann reached a tentative agreement in Paris for the CEA to sell Israel a small research reactor. This was reaffirmed by Peres at the Protocol of Sèvres conference in late October for the sale of a reactor to be built near Dimona and for a supply of uranium fuel.[12] After the Suez Crisis led to the threat of Soviet intervention and the British and French were being forced to withdraw under pressure from the US, PM Ben-Gurion sent Peres and Golda Meir to France. During their discussions the groundwork was laid for France to build a larger nuclear reactor and chemical reprocessing plant, and French Prime Minister Guy Mollet, ashamed at having abandoned his commitment to fellow socialists in Israel, supposedly told an aide, "I owe the bomb to them."[13]

This deal was finalized on October 3, 1957 in two agreements: one political that declared the project to be for peaceful purposes and specified other legal obligations, and one technical that described a 24 megawatt EL-102 reactor. The one to actually be built was to be two to three times as large[14] and be able to produce 22 grams of plutonium a year.[15]

File:Kamag.jpg
Negev Nuclear Research Center as photographed by Mordechai Vanunu.

Excavation

Before construction began it was determined that the scope of the project would be too large for the EMET and IAEC team, so Shimon Peres recruited Colonel Manes Pratt, then Israeli military attaché in Burma, to be the project leader. Building began in late 1957 or early 1958, bringing hundreds of French engineers and technicians to the Beersheba and Dimona area. In addition, thousands of newly immigrated Sephardic Jews were recruited to do digging; to avoid strict labor laws, they were hired in increments of 59 days, separated by one day off.[16]

Rupture with France

When Charles de Gaulle became French President in late 1958 he wanted to end French-Israeli nuclear cooperation, and said that he would not supply Israel with uranium unless the plant was opened to international inspectors, declared peaceful, and no plutonium was reprocessed.[17] Through an extended series of negotiations, Shimon Peres finally reached a compromise with Foreign Minister Maurice Couve de Murville over two years later, in which French companies would be able to continue to fulfill their contract obligations and Israel would declare the project peaceful.[18] In this way, French assistance did not end until 1966.[19]

In 1959 Israel bought 20 tons of heavy water from Norway, and the nuclear reactor at Dimona went critical in 1962.[20] By 1965 the Israeli reprocessing plant was completed and ready to convert the reactor's fuel rods into weapons grade plutonium.[21]

Costs

The exact cost for the construction of the Israeli nuclear program are unknown, though Peres later said that the reactor cost $80 million in 1960 dollars,[22] half of which was raised by foreign Jewish donors, including many American Jews. Some of these donors were given a tour of the Dimona complex in 1968.[23]

Weapons production 1967-present

File:Dimona11.11.68.jpg
Completed Dimona complex as seen by US Corona satellite on November 11, 1968.

Israel is believed to have begun full scale production of nuclear weapons following the 1967 Six-Day War, although it may have had bomb parts earlier. A CIA report from early 1967 stated that Israel had the materials to construct a bomb in six to eight weeks[24] and some authors suggest that Israel had two crude bombs ready for use during the war.[20] According to American journalist Seymour Hersh, everything was ready for production at this time save an official order to do so. Moshe Dayan, then Defense Minister, convinced the Labor Party's economic boss Pinhas Sapir of the value of commencing the program by giving him a tour of the Dimona site in early 1968, and soon after Dayan decided that he had the authority to order the start of full production of 4 to 5 nuclear warheads a year. Hersh stated that it is widely believed that the words "Never Again" were welded, in English and Hebrew, onto the first warhead.[25]

In order to produce plutonium the Israelis needed a large supply of uranium ore, some of which was procured by the Mossad on the pretense of buying it for an Italian chemical company in Milan. Once the uranium was shipped from Antwerp it was transferred to an Israeli freighter at sea and brought to Israel. The orchestrated disappearance of the uranium, named Operation Plumbat, became the subject of the 1978 book The Plumbat Affair.[26]

Estimates as to how many warheads Israel has built since the late 1960s have varied, mainly based on the amount of fissile material that could have been produced and on the revelations of Israeli nuclear technician Mordechai Vanunu. The CIA believed that the number of Israeli nuclear weapons stayed from 10 to 20 from 1974 through the early 1980s.[1] Vannu's information in October 1986 said that based on a reactor operating at 150 megawatts and a production of 40 kg of plutonium per year, Israel had 100 to 200 nuclear devices. Furthermore, Vanunu revealed that between 1980-1986 Israel attained the ability to build thermonuclear weapons.[27] By the mid 2000s estimates of Israel's arsenal ranged from 70 to 400 nuclear warheads, although a figure closer to the lower bound is more likely.[1]

Nuclear testing

On November 2, 1966 Israel may have carried out a non-nuclear test, speculated to be zero yield or implosion in nature.[1] The only suspected nuclear test conducted by Israel has become known as the Vela Incident. On September 22, 1979, a US Vela satellite, built in the 1960s to detect nuclear tests, reported a flash resembling a nuclear detonation in the southern Indian Ocean. In response the Carter administration set up a panel led by MIT professor Jack Ruina to analyze the reliability of the Vela detection; they concluded in July 1980 that the flash "was probably not from a nuclear explosion," although the original intelligence community estimate was that it was 90% likely to be a nuclear test and a secret study by the Nuclear Intelligence Panel agreed with that initial finding.[28] According to journalist Seymour Hersh, the detection was actually the third joint Israeli-South African nuclear test in the Indian Ocean, and the Israelis had sent two IDF ships and "a contingent of Israeli military men and nuclear experts" for the test.[29]

Revelations

Dimona

The Israeli nuclear program was first revealed publicly on December 13, 1960 in a small Time article,[30] which said that a non-Communist non-NATO country had made an "atomic development." On December 16 the Daily Express revealed this country to be Israel, and on December 18 US Atomic Energy Commission chairman John McCone appeared on Meet the Press to officially confirm the Israeli construction of a nuclear reactor and announce his resignation.[31] The following day The New York Times, with the help of McCone, revealed that France was assisting Israel.[32]

This flurry of media reporting led Ben-Gurion to make the only statement ever by an Israeli Prime Miniser about Dimona. On December 21 he announced in front of the Knesset that they were building a 24 megawatt reactor "which will serve the needs of industry, agriculture, health, and science," and that it "is designed exclusively for peaceful purposes."[33]

Weapons production

File:Vanuunu-Article.jpg
On October 5, 1986, the British newspaper The Sunday Times ran Mordechai Vanunu's story on its front page under the headline: "Revealed: the secrets of Israel's nuclear arsenal".

The first public revelation of Israel's nuclear capability (as opposed to development program) came by NBC News, which reported in January 1969 that two years previously Israel decided "to embark on a crash course program to produce a nuclear weapon" and that they possessed or would soon be in possession of one.[34] This was initially dismised by Israeli and US officials as well as in an article in The New York Times. One year later on July 18 The New York Time made public for the first time that the US government believed Israel to possess nuclear weapons or to have the "capacity to assemble atomic bombs on short notice."[35]

The first extensive details of the weapons program came in the London based Sunday Times on October 5, 1986, which printed information provided by Mordechai Vanunu, formerly employed at the Negev Nuclear Research Center, near Dimona. For publication of state secrets he was captured by the Mossad in Rome, brought back to Israel, and sentenced to 18 years in prison for treason and espionage. Although there had been much speculation prior to Vanunu's revelations that the Dimona site was creating nuclear weapons, Vanunu's information indicated that Israel had also built thermonuclear weapons.[36]

Stockpile

The State of Israel has never made public any details of its nuclear capability or arsenal. The following is a history of estimates by many different reputable sources on the size and strength of Israel's nuclear arsenal.

  • 1969- 5-6 bombs of 19 kilotons yield each [39]
  • 1974- 3 capable artillery battalions each with 12 175mm tubes and a total of 108 warheads[42]; 10 bombs[43]
  • 1976- 10-20 nuclear weapons[44]
  • 1980- 200 bombs [45]
  • 1984- 12-31 atomic bombs[46]; 31 plutonium bombs and 10 uranium bombs[47]
  • 1985- at least 100 nuclear bombs[48]
  • 1986- 100 to 200 fission bombs and a number of fusion bombs[49]
  • 1991- 50-60 to 200-300[50]
  • 1992- more than 200 bombs[51]
  • 1994- 64-112 bombs (5kg/warhead)[52]; 50 nuclear tipped Jericho missiles, 200 total[53]
  • 1995- 66-116 bombs (at 5kg/warhead)[54]; 70-80 bombs[55]; "A complete Repertoire" (neutron bombs, nuclear mines, suitcase bombs, submarine born)[56]
  • 1996- 60-80 plutonium weapons, maybe more than 100 assembled, ER variants, varitable yields[57]
  • 1997- More than 400 deliverable thermonuclear and nuclear weapons[58]

Delivery systems

See also: Nuclear triad

Missiles

Main article: Jericho missile

Ernst David Bergmann was the first to seriously began thinking about a ballistic missile capability and Israel test-fired its first Shavit II missile in July 1961.[59] It was not until 1963 when Israel actually put a large-scale project into motion, spending $100 million to jointly develop and build 25 medium-range missiles with the French aerospace company Dassault. The Israeli project, codenamed Project 700, also included the construction of a missile field at Hirbat Zacharia, a site west of Jerusalem.[60] The missiles that were first developed with France became the Jericho I system, first operational in 1971; they were updated to Jericho II in the mid 1980s and Jericho III in the mid 2000s.

Aircraft

Marine

In 2003 it was reported that Israel's three Dolphin class submarines were armed with US Harpoon missiles and tipped with nuclear warheads,[61] giving Israel a secure second strike capability.[62]

Other

Seymour Hersh reports that Israel developed the ability to miniaturize warheads small enough to fit in a suitcase by the year 1973.[63]

Policy

Use

Further information: Samson Option

According to historian Avner Cohen, Israel first articulated an official policy on the use of nuclear weapons in 1966, which revolved around four "red lines" that could lead to a nuclear response:[64]

1. A successful Arab military penetration into populated areas within Israel's post-1949 borders.

2. The destruction of the Israeli Air Force.
3. The exposure of Israeli cities to massive and devastating air attacks or to possible chemical or biological attacks.

4. The use of nuclear weapons against Israeli territory.

On October 8, 1973 just after the start of the Yom Kippur War, Golda Meir and her closest aides decided to put eight nuclear armed F-4s at Tel Nof Airbase on 24 hour alert and as many nuclear missile launchers at Hirbat Zachariah operational as possible. Seymour Hersh adds that the initial target list that night "included the Egyptian and Syrian military headquarters near Cairo and Damascus."[65] This nuclear alert was meant not only as a means of precaution, but to push the Soviets to restrain the Arab offensive and to convince the Americans to begin sending supplies. One later report said that a Soviet intelligence officer did warn the Egyptian chief of staff, and colleagues of US National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger said that the threat of a nuclear exchange caused him to urge for a massive Israeli resupply.[66]

After Israel was attacked by Iraq with Scud missiles during the 1991 Gulf War, Israel was put on full-scale nuclear alert and mobile nuclear missile launchers were deployed facing Iraq.[67]

On January 7, 2007 The Sunday Times reported that Israel had drawn up plans to destroy three Iranian nuclear facilities with low-yield nuclear "bunker-busters" that would be launched by aircraft through "tunnels" created by conventional laser-guided bombs. These tactical nuclear weapons would then explode underground to reduce radioactive fallout.[68]

Possession

Although Israel has officially acknowledged the existence of Dimona since Ben-Gurion's speech to the Knesset in December 1960, Israel has never officially acknowledged its construction or possession of nuclear weapons.[69] In addition to this policy, on May 18, 1966 Prime Minister Levi Eshkol told the Knesset that "Israel has no atomic weapons and will not be the first to introduce them into our region," a policy first articulated by Shimon Peres to US President John F. Kennedy in April 1963.[70] Avner Cohen defines this initial posture as "nuclear ambiguity," but he defines the stage after it became clear by 1970 that Israel possessed nuclear weapons as a policy of "nuclear opacity."[71]

In a December 2006 interview, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert came close to breaking with Israel's policy of nuclear opacity, saying that Iran aspires "to have a nuclear weapon as America, France, Israel and Russia."[72] Olmert's office later said that the quote was taken out of context; in other parts of the interview, Olmert refused to confirm or deny Israel's nuclear weapon status.[73]

NPT

Israel was originally expected to sign the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and on June 12, 1968 Israel voted in favor of the treaty in the UN General Assembly. But when the invasion of Czechoslovakia in August by the Soviet Union delayed ratification around the world, Israel's internal divison and hesitation over the treaty became public.[74] The Johnson administration attempted to use the sale of 50 F-4 Phantoms to pressure Israel to sign the treaty that fall, culminating in a personal letter from Lyndon Johnson to Israeli PM Levi Eshkol. But by November Johnson had backed away from tying the F-4 sale with the NPT after a stalemate in negotiations, and Israel would neither sign nor ratify the treaty.[75] After the series of negotiations, US assistant secretary of defense for international security Paul Warnke was convinced that Israel already possessed nuclear weapons.[76]


See also

References

  1. ^ a b c d e f Israel - Nuclear Weapons, Federation of American Scientists. Retrieved July 1 2007.
  2. ^ "Background Information, 2005 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons". United Nations. Retrieved 2006-07-02.
  3. ^ Mohamed ElBaradei (27 July 2004). "Transcript of the Director General´s Interview with Al-Ahram News". IAEA. Retrieved 2007-06-03. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  4. ^ Cohen, Avner. Israel and the Bomb. New York: Columbia University Press, 1998. ISBN 0-231-10483-9, p. 26
  5. ^ Cohen, 30-1.
  6. ^ Hersh, Seymour M. The Samson Option. New York: Random House, 1991. ISBN 0-394-57006-5 p.19
  7. ^ Cohen, 33-4.
  8. ^ Hersh, 30.
  9. ^ Cohen, 44.
  10. ^ Cohen, 65.
  11. ^ Hersh, 37.
  12. ^ Cohen, 53-54.
  13. ^ Hersh, 42-43.
  14. ^ Cohen, 59.
  15. ^ Hersh, 45-46.
  16. ^ Hersh, 60-61.
  17. ^ Cohen, 73-74.
  18. ^ Cohen, 75.
  19. ^ Hersh, 70.
  20. ^ a b Farr, Warner D. The Third Temple's Holy of Holies: Israel's Nuclear Weapons, USAF Counterproliferation Center, September 1999. Retrieved July 3, 2007.
  21. ^ Hersh, 130.
  22. ^ Cohen, 70.
  23. ^ Hersh, 66-67.
  24. ^ Cohen, 298.
  25. ^ Hersh, 179-180.
  26. ^ Hersh, 181.
  27. ^ "Mordechai Vanunu: The Sunday Times articles", Times Online, Arpil 21, 2004. Retrieved July 4, 2007.
  28. ^ Hersh, 272-273, 280.
  29. ^ Hersh, 271.
  30. ^ "The Nth Power ", Time Magazine, December 19, 1960. Retrieved July 2, 2007.
  31. ^ Hersh, 72.
  32. ^ Cohen, 88-89.
  33. ^ Cohen, 91.
  34. ^ Cohen, 327
  35. ^ Cohen, 338.
  36. ^ "Mordechai Vanunu: The Sunday Times articles". The Times. 2004-04-21. Retrieved 2006-07-02. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |1= (help)
  37. ^ 150. Burrows and Windrem, op. cit., 280 and Cohen, Israel and the Bomb, op. cit., 273-274.
  38. ^ Data from Time, 12 April 1976, quoted in Weissman and Krosney, op. cit., 107.
  39. ^ Tahtinen, Dale R., The Arab-Israel Military Balance Today (Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1973), 34.
  40. ^ How Israel Got the Bomb.” Time, 12 April 1976, 39.
  41. ^ Burrows and Windrem, op. cit., 302.
  42. ^ Kaku, op. cit., 66 and Hersh, op. cit., 216.
  43. ^ Valéry, op. cit., 807-09.
  44. ^ Data from CIA, quoted in Weissman and Krosney, op. cit., 109.
  45. ^ Ottenberg, Michael, “Estimating Israel's Nuclear Capabilities,” Command, 30 (October 1994), 6-8.
  46. ^ Pry, op. cit., 75.
  47. ^ Ibid., 111.
  48. ^ Data from NBC Nightly News, quoted in Milhollin, op. cit., 104 and Burrows and Windrem, op. cit., 308.
  49. ^ Data from Vanunu quoted in Milhollin, op. cit., 104.
  50. ^ Harkavy, Robert E. “After the Gulf War: The Future of the Israeli Nuclear Strategy,” The Washington Quarterly (Summer 1991), 164.
  51. ^ Burrows and Windrem, op. cit., 308.
  52. ^ Albright, David, Berkhout, Frans and Walker, William, Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium 1996. World Inventories, Capabilities, and Policies (New York: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute And Oxford University Press, 1997), 262-263.
  53. ^ Hough, Harold, “Israel's Nuclear Infrastructure,” Jane's Intelligence Review 6, no. 11 (November 1994), 508.
  54. ^ Ibid., 262-263.
  55. ^ Spector, and McDonough, with Medeiros, op. cit., 135.
  56. ^ Burrows and Windrem, op. cit., 283-284.
  57. ^ Cordesman, op. cit., 1996, 234.
  58. ^ Brower, Kenneth S., “A Propensity for Conflict: Potential Scenarios and Outcomes of War in the Middle East,” Jane's Intelligence Review, Special Report no. 14, (February 1997), 14-15.
  59. ^ Hersh, 104.
  60. ^ Hersh, 120, 173-174.
  61. ^ Beaumont, Peter and Urquhart, Conal. "Israel deploys nuclear arms in submarines", The Observer, October 12, 2003. Retrieved July 4, 2007.
  62. ^ Plushnick-Masti, Ramit. "Israel Buys 2 Nuclear-Capable Submarines", The Washington Post, August 25, 2006. Retrieved July 4, 2007.
  63. ^ Hersh, 220.
  64. ^ Cohen, 237.
  65. ^ Hersh, 225
  66. ^ Hersh, 227, 230.
  67. ^ Hersh, 318.
  68. ^ Mahnaimi, Uzi and Baxter, Sarah. "Revealed: Israel plans nuclear strike on Iran", The Sunday Times, January 7, 2007. Retrieved July 3, 2007.
  69. ^ Cohen, 343.
  70. ^ Cohen, 233-234.
  71. ^ Cohen, 277, 291.
  72. ^ "Olmert: Iran wants nuclear weapons like Israel". Retrieved 2006-12-11.
  73. ^ "Olmert Says Israel Among Nuclear Nations". Retrieved 2006-12-11.
  74. ^ Cohen, 300-301.
  75. ^ Cohen, 315.
  76. ^ Cohen, 318-319.
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