Israel and weapons of mass destruction
|Weapons of mass destruction|
Israel is widely believed to possess weapons of mass destruction, and to be one of four nuclear-armed countries not recognized as a Nuclear Weapons State by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The US Congress Office of Technology Assessment has recorded Israel as a country generally reported as having undeclared chemical warfare capabilities, and an offensive biological warfare program. Officially Israel neither confirms nor denies possessing nuclear weapons.
It is believed that Israel had possessed an operational nuclear weapons capability by 1967, with the mass production of nuclear warheads occurring immediately after the Six-Day War. Although no official statistics exist, it has been estimated that Israel possesses from 75 to as many as 400 nuclear weapons. It is unknown if Israel's reported thermonuclear weapons are in the megaton range. Israel is also reported to possess a wide range of different systems, including neutron bombs, tactical nuclear weapons, and suitcase nukes. Israel is believed to manufacture its nuclear weapons at the Negev Nuclear Research Center.
Nuclear weapons delivery
Nuclear weapons delivery mechanisms include Jericho 3 missiles, with a range of 4,800 km to 6,500 km (though a 2004 source estimated its range at up to 11,500 km), and which are believed to provide a second-strike option, as well as regional coverage from road mobile Jericho 2 IRBMs. Israel's nuclear-capable ballistic missiles are believed to be buried so far underground that they would survive a nuclear attack. Additionally, Israel is believed to have an offshore nuclear second-strike capability, using submarine-launched nuclear-capable cruise missiles, which can be launched from the Israeli Navy's Dolphin-class submarines. The Israeli Air Force has F-15I and F-16I Sufa fighter aircraft are capable of delivering tactical and strategic nuclear weapons at long distances using conformal fuel tanks and supported by their aerial refueling fleet of modified Boeing 707's.
In 2006, then Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert appeared to acknowledge that Israel had nuclear weapons when he stated on German TV that Iran was "aspiring to have nuclear weapons as America, France, Israel, Russia". This admission was in contrast to the long-running Israeli government policy of deliberate ambiguity on whether it has nuclear weapons. The policy held that Israel would "not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons in the Middle East." Former International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei regarded Israel as a state possessing nuclear weapons. Much of what is known about Israel's nuclear program comes from revelations in 1986 by Mordechai Vanunu, a technician at the Negev Nuclear Research Center who served an 18-year prison sentence as a result. Israel has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, but supports establishment of a Middle East Zone free of weapons of mass destruction.
Israel has signed but not ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). In 1983 a report by the CIA stated that Israel, after "finding itself surrounded by frontline Arab states with budding CW capabilities, became increasingly conscious of its vulnerability to chemical attack... undertook a program of chemical warfare preparations in both offensive and protective areas... In late 1982 a probable CW nerve agent production facility and a storage facility were identified at the Dimona Sensitive Storage Area in the Negev Desert. Other CW agent production is believed to exist within a well-developed Israeli chemical industry."
190 liters of dimethyl methylphosphonate, a CWC schedule 2 chemical used in the synthesis of sarin nerve gas, was discovered in the cargo of El Al Flight 1862 after it crashed in 1992 en route to Tel Aviv. Israel insisted the material was non-toxic, was to have been used to test filters that protect against chemical weapons, and that it had been clearly listed on the cargo manifest in accordance with international regulations. The shipment was from a U.S. chemical plant to the IIBR under a U.S. Department of Commerce license.
In 1993, the U.S. Congress Office of Technology Assessment WMD proliferation assessment recorded Israel as a country generally reported as having undeclared offensive chemical warfare capabilities. Former US deputy assistant secretary of defense responsible for chemical and biological defense Dr. Bill Richardson said in 1998 "I have no doubt that Israel has worked on both chemical and biological offensive things for a long time... There's no doubt they've had stuff for years."
Israel is believed to have developed an offensive biological warfare capability. The US Congress Office of Technology Assessment records Israel as a country possessing a long-term, undeclared biological warfare program. Israel is not a signatory to the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC). It is assumed that the Israel Institute for Biological Research in Ness Ziona develops vaccines and antidotes for chemical and biological warfare. It has not been possible to conclude whether Israel currently maintains an offensive biological weapons program; it is speculated that Israel retains an active ability to produce and disseminate biological weapons.
- John Douglas-Gray's thriller The Novak Legacy
- "Background Information, 2005 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons". United Nations. Retrieved 2006-07-02.
- "Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks" (PDF). U.S. Congress Office of Technology Assessment. August 1993. OTA-ISC-559. Retrieved 2008-12-09.
- http://www.wisconsinproject.org/countries/israel/nuke.html. Retrieved May 3, 2015. Missing or empty
- Toukan, Abdullah, Senior Associate; Cordesman, Anthony H., Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy. "Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Development Facilities" (PDF). Center for Strategic and International Studies. Retrieved April 2, 2015.
- Brower, Kenneth S., “A Propensity for Conflict: Potential Scenarios and Outcomes of War in the Middle East,” Jane's Intelligence Review, Special Report no. 14, (February 1997), 14-15.
- "Nuclear Weapons: Who Has What at a Glance". Arms Control Association. Retrieved 2007-05-30.
- http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/03/31/does-israel-really-have-a-thermonuclear-weapon/. Missing or empty
- Hersh, Seymour M. The Samson Option: Israel's Nuclear Arsenal and American Foreign Policy. New York: Random House, 1991. ISBN 0-394-57006-5 p.220
- Plushnick-Masti, Ramit (2006-08-25). "Israel Buys 2 Nuclear-Capable Submarines". The Washington Post. Retrieved 2010-05-20.
- Alon Ben-David (1 October 2009). "Israel seeks sixth Dolphin in light of Iranian 'threat'". Jane's Defence Weekly. Retrieved 2009-11-03.
- John Pike. "Israel Air Force - Israel". globalsecurity.org.
- "Israeli PM in nuclear arms hint". BBC Online. 2006-12-12. Retrieved 2015-07-30.
- "In a Slip, Israel’s Leader Seems to Confirm Its Nuclear Arsenal". The New York Times. 2006-12-12. Retrieved 2015-07-30.
- "Israeli PM admits to nuclear weapons". ABC Online. 2006-12-12. Retrieved 2015-07-30.
- Dawoud, Khaled (1999-12-02). "Redefining the bomb". Al-Ahram Weekly. Retrieved 2006-07-02.
- Mohamed ElBaradei (27 July 2004). "Transcript of the Director General's Interview with Al-Ahram News". International Atomic Energy Agency. Retrieved 2007-06-03.
- "43 nations to seek Middle East free of WMDs". MSNBC.com. 2008-07-13. Retrieved 2011-09-06.
- United Nations Treaty Collection. Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on their Destruction. Accessed 14 January 2009.
- "1NIE on Israeli Chemical Weapons". scribd.com.
- IIBR, IL.
- Cohen, Avner. "Israel and Chemical/Biological Weapons: History, Deterrence, and Arms Control" (PDF). Retrieved 2010-04-27.
- "Israel says El Al crash chemical 'non-toxic'". BBC. 1998-10-02. Archived from the original on 2003-08-18. Retrieved 2006-07-02.
- Stein, Jeff (1998-12-02). "Debunking the "ethno-bomb"". Salon.com. Retrieved 2006-07-11.
- "Membership of the Biological Weapons Convention". United Nations Office At Geneva. Retrieved 12 March 2011.
- "Nes Ziyyona". GlobalSecurity.org. April 28, 2005. Retrieved 2007-02-11.
Israel is believed to have the capacity to produce chemical warfare agents, and probably has stocks of bombs, rockets, and artillery shells. Public reports that a mustard and nerve gas production facility was established in 1982 in the Dimona restricted area are apparently erroneous. Israel is also probably poised to rapidly produce biological weapons, though there are no public reports of currently active production effort or associated locations.…Israel's primary chemical and biological warfare facility is at Nes Ziyyona [Noss Ziona], near Tel Aviv. The Israeli Institute for Bio-Technology is believed to be the home of both offensive and defensive research.
- Normark, Magnus; Anders Lindblad; Anders Norqvist; Björn Sandström; Louise Waldenström (December 2005). "Israel and WMD: Incentives and Capabilities" (PDF). FOI. p. 38. Retrieved 2007-02-11.
Israel does not stockpile or produce BW in large-scale today. However, we assess that Israel has a breakout capability for biological weapons and also CW, i.e. the knowledge needed to implement theoretical knowledge into the practical management of production and deployment of CBW. The knowledge base would be the one that was built during the 1950s and 1960s where today’s advanced research can be used to upgrade potential BW and CW agents and their behaviour in the environment. We have not found any conclusive evidence that show that Israel’s offensive programs still remain active today.
- * "Israel", WMD Overview, Nuclear Threat Initiative, May 2014.
- Israeli Nuclear History, Archival Document Collection at the Wilson Center Digital Archive
- , Avner Cohen Collection at the Wilson Center's Nuclear Proliferation International History Project
- Israel Crosses the Threshold, National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book No. 189, by Avner Cohen and William Burr, April 28, 2006 (originally published at Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May/June 2006)
- Bibliography of Israeli Nuclear Science Publications by Mark Gorwitz, June 2005
- Israeli Nuclear Forces, 2002, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 2002
- The Bomb That Never Is, by Avner Cohen, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May/June 2000, Vol 56, No. 3 pp. 22–23
- Israel and the Bomb (Columbia University press, 1998), including declassified documents.
- Obsessive secrecy undermines democracy By Reuven Pedatzur Ha'aretz. Tuesday, August 8, 2000—Cohen published "Israel and the Bomb" in the United States, and a Hebrew translation of the book has appeared here. In the eyes of the defense establishment, Cohen has committed a double sin.
- Fighting to preserve the tattered veil of secrecy By Ronen Bergman The publication of Dr. Avner Cohen's book and of the Vanunu trial transcripts set off alarm bells for the Defense Ministry's chief of security, who is striving to protect the traditional opacity regarding Israel's nuclear affairs.
- Blast, from the past to the present By Yirmiyahu Yovel Ha'aretz. 28 July 2000—If, in the context of the peace agreements and talks with the United States, Israel were to confirm its nuclear capability - while committing itself to no nuclear testing and pledging to build its defense system on conventional weapons as in the past - maybe then it might achieve at least de facto recognition, if not international legitimacy, for its nuclear weaponry, to be used only as a "last resort" and a tool for safeguarding peace after Israel withdraws.
- The Third Temple's Holy Of Holies: Israel's Nuclear Weapons Warner D. Farr, LTC, U.S. Army, September 1999
- Israel: Plutonium Production The Risk Report Volume 2 Number 4 (July–August 1996).
- Israel: Uranium Processing and Enrichment The Risk Report Volume 2 Number 4 (July–August 1996).
- Israel The Nuclear Potential of Individual Countries Treaty on Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons Problems of Extension Appendix 2 Russian Federation Foreign Intelligence Service 6 April 1995
- The Samson Option. Israel's Nuclear Arsenal and American Foreign Policy Seymour M Hersh, [New York: Random House, 1991]