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UN science chief defends work, welcomes review

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100514/ap_on_sc/climate

This is an AP article that mentions the 15 member review panel that is currently examining the IPPC; 'The head of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri defended Friday the work of the thousands of scientists who contribute to its reports, even as he welcomed a review of procedures that produced errors undermining the panel's public credibility.'

"Pachauri told the committee's first review meeting that the panel's conclusions are valid, even in areas where mistakes were discovered. Pointing to the most glaring error, a claim that the world's glaciers will melt by 2035, Pachauri said glaciers are indeed melting, though not that fast. Nonetheless, glacial melt accounts for 28 percent of sea level rise, and the panel's assessment on glaciers contains "a lot of facts which we can ignore at our peril."

We should probably add a mention of the review panel in the article in regards to the IPCC. Mytwocents (talk) 15:48, 14 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

You mean [1]? I'm not sure. Is it very exciting? Maybe in IPCC? William M. Connolley (talk) 16:01, 14 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]
I already added a mention of this in the IPCC article. Cla68 (talk) 04:16, 18 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Dipole moment...

If I understand things correctly infra-red band energy from the sun is absorbed by carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Part of this energy is stored in the bond angle energy (dipole moment) between the atoms of the greenhouse gases and the rest is converted to kinetic energy of the molecules moving around and bumping into each other.

Here is the problem that I have. By volume carbon dioxide has a specific heat of about 1.619 kJ per m^3 * Deg K, nitrogen is 1.299, and oxygen is 1.308. Taking 1 cu meter samples of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and oxygen and adding 1 Kilojoule of energy to each gives the following temperature changes (assuming standard temperature and pressure initial conditions):

Carbon Dioxide - .618 Kelvin temperature increase Oxygen - .765 Kelvin temperature increase Nitrogen - .770 Kelvin temperature increase

And so if the entire atmosphere were made of carbon dioxide, incoming radiant energy from the sun would result in a lower atmospheric temperature than if the entire atmosphere would be oxygen.

Now if changes in atmospheric thickness are the actual cause of global warming (more blankets no matter what they are made of) then my point is mute, but the fascination with the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere seems misplaced. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 24.3.11.218 (talk) 02:42, 17 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks for your question. Your premise is not in fact correct: it isn't IR from the sun that is absorbed by greenhouse gases, but rather IR emitted by the earth and by other layers of the atmosphere. Solar energy in the thermal IR region is small; most solar energy is in the UV, visible, and near-IR parts of the spectrum. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 02:57, 17 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

But this still doesn't explain why the focus is on carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas and not oxygen and nitrogen, when for a given amount of energy input (no matter the source), the change in temperature is less for carbon dioxide than it is for oxygen and nitrogen. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 24.3.11.218 (talk) 19:45, 17 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The key to understanding this is that the sun emits mostly visible light, and all the gases that make up the bulk of the atmosphere are transparent to visible light. So the visible light from the sun hits the ground (ignoring clouds, which play a complex role on both sides of the equation) and warm it. The Earth emits most of its energy in the infrared part of the spectrum. Nitrogen and Oxygen are nearly transparent to infrared light, too, so they do not absorb this outgoing radiation. Thus there is very little energy input into them. CO2, on the other hand, is not IR transparent. It absorbs the outgoing infrared light. This is eventually re-emitted, partially towards the Earth, warming it. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 20:02, 17 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]
See Idealized greenhouse model and Greenhouse effect. --Nigelj (talk) 20:07, 17 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]
By coincidence, I recently added this as the last point in Greenhouse effect#Basic mechanism William M. Connolley (talk) 20:37, 17 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I guess I don't have a firm grasp on the time periods involved between a greenhouse gas absorbing infra-red energy and then releasing that energy. Is the time-frame a day (absorption) / night (release) cycle like oceans (warm ocean breeze on a cool night) or something more complex like pressure / temperature conditions? Also, I don't know if the infrared absorption is a quantitized event. Does a given amount of carbon dioxide have a fixed limit to the amount of infra-red energy it can absorb? —Preceding unsigned comment added by 24.3.11.218 (talk) 02:36, 18 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The time period is a very tiny fraction of a second. If really you want the details look up something called the Einstein coefficient. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 04:22, 18 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]
That is misleading. Obviously, some of the energy stored in the atmosphere during the day is released at night. While Boris is right in saying that the energy Greenhouse Gases absorb is lost in a fraction of a second, he did not explain that it is transferred to the atmosphere and not simply returned to the surface. As a result, the Greenhouse Gases do not store the energy returned to the Earth hours or months later. BTW, infrared absorption is a quantized event. Q Science (talk) 05:17, 18 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Ocean warming

The Argo project has published the following snippet about ocean warming on their web: [2] and has a nice graph showing how the heat content of the world oceans have changed the last 50 years or so. I seems like it would complement the surface temperature graphs nicely, maybe it could find its way into the article somehow? Apis (talk) 10:56, 19 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The full article is apparently Levitus, S. and Antonov, JI and Boyer, TP and Locarnini, RA and Garcia, HE and Mishonov, AV, Global ocean heat content 1955--2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems, GRL 36, 2009. It's been sitting for a year, been cited frequently, and at a glance I see no red flags. So yes, it looks fine. Are the plots produced by NOAA and hence PD? --Stephan Schulz (talk) 11:19, 19 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]
I can't answer that, but I found this pdf [3] with the article as it was published and 17 additional pages with more graphs (in color and higher resolution.) The one in question is on page 20 in color, and in b/w in the article at page 2. If/how that affect its PD-status i don't know. Apis (talk) 12:04, 19 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]
I created my own plot based on the one in the article, in case that one can't be used. (I hope that is ok). Any suggestions? (Or if anyone wants to make a different version, I can post the data somewhere.) Apis (talk) 18:14, 19 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

How does this relate to Lyman et al. [4], [5]? William M. Connolley (talk) 15:43, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Add Still skeptical? Reports document climate change in the USA Today by the United States National Academy of Sciences &/or Scientists Reassert Man's Role in a Changing Climate? 99.29.184.183 (talk) 04:26, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

For this article, I would suggest to add pertinent parts of the NAS report itself (if it contains anything new), not reports on the availability of that report. It probably should go into global warming controversy, though. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 07:24, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]
I don't see anything there which could possibly go in this article. However, it may be a good faith edit, although the IP is in a range which suggests edits emphasizing global warming, regardless of accuracy or suitability for Wikipedia, so I have doubts. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 08:17, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]
I agree on the USA Today article - its sensationalism as MSM is wont. But the NAS reports may have a place, if not elsewhere, then to add additional refs to the basic conclusions about global warming, since they are newer than the IPCC's. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 12:45, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Why is User:Arthur Rubin attempting to break the link from Global warming to Environmental migrant? POV? 209.255.78.138 (talk) 16:37, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Because it doesn't belong. I made a mistake in removing Category:Climate change from Environmental migrant, after I proposed deleting Category:Climate refugees, as it would have left Envirnomental migrant uncategorized. It should link from climate change, if anywhere. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 16:41, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

You trashed a list of works by Jeff Goodell too, which has been restored. So far not a concise clearly well-written book, but not a reason to delete. Are you on a rampage, hopefully not? 209.255.78.138 (talk) 16:44, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Nope. I deleted the Wikilink, not the book. If the list of books got deleted, it must have been an edit conflict. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 16:53, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

You write like you are being reasonable, but what of your Chicago Climate Exchange deletions, also without explanation? Appears disingenuous: POV push by Bureaucracy tactics? Enough time spent in this spot, see Talk:Chicago Climate Exchange. 209.255.78.138 (talk) 17:27, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The first paragraph I removed was unsourced and irrelevant, and the Controversy section was unsourced (by the time I removed it) and a BLP violation. If the [2] through [4] could be matched to actual references, it might be allowable. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 17:58, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

There are no diffs here, and the discussion is a bit terse to follow, but I do not agree that Environmental migrant should not be linked from Global warming, only from climate change. We have discussed in the past here that the two terms are mostly synonymous, with the current climate change being a global warming. The CC article therefore covers the whole history of changes, and GW focusses mostly on the current warming. Environmental migrant is largely about current migrations, with only two lines about the ones that accompanied past ice ages etc. Indeed, the lede there begins with a link to Global warming. If there is to be a link, it should be from here. Where was it? In the text? As a See Also? As a {main}? --Nigelj (talk) 18:29, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I don't know where it was. I think the anon was complaining about my removing the "Environmental migrant" from Category:Global warming. — Arthur Rubin (talk) 18:54, 21 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

"Controversial" greenhouse effect

I've added tags to the section on greenhouse gases because of this section of text:


The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in the atmosphere are purported to warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896.[1] The existence of the greenhouse effect is a subject of controversy;[vague] for example, Khabibullo Abdusamatov, head of the space research laboratory at the Saint Petersburg-based Pulkovo Observatory[2][3] has stated that "ascribing 'greenhouse' effect properties to the Earth's atmosphere is not scientifically substantiated."[4][unbalanced opinion?] The question in terms of global warming is how the strength of the presumed greenhouse effect changes when human activity increases the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

I see absolutely no reason for this scientist's views to take priority of the views of the majority of experts, as reflected in the IPCC reports, National Research Council reports, joint-scientific academy statements, etc. To include this scientist's viewpoint is therefore unbalanced and biased.

A fair treatment of so-called sceptic views is already included in the section views on global warming. Since "sceptical" views have such little scientific support, the amount of space given to them (two sentences) is appropriate. Actually, I think two sentences is rather generous. Enescot (talk) 15:16, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Well spotted. I wonder how long that has been in. Yes, it should be chopped out as FRINGE. I will. We ought to have something in there to say "the direct RF is X w/m2; with feedbacks Y; the exact number Y is subject to debate". Perhaps pull something in from the RF article. William M. Connolley (talk) 15:40, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]
It's been put in by some small communist agitator riding around on a large agricultural machine. I've wondered about it, but assume it's part of an experiment, maybe to see if any of the new "I agree with the science! Really! And I once was an evolutionist, too!" editors will fix it. Please delete this message after reading. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 18:43, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Astutely observed. The agitator appears to be writing for the enemy. Which one? . . . dave souza, talk 19:10, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Commie scum. I didn't bother check his edits William M. Connolley (talk) 22:00, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]
"Commie scum" is not nice :( Torontokid2006 (talk) 22:22, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]
The subject will be sufficiently understanding. Trust me. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 22:36, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Sorry: we're a bit inbred here William M. Connolley (talk) 22:41, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]
In my homeland we don't call it inbreeding. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 23:39, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]
I think you misspelled Rodina. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 00:23, 25 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Oookay. Yes, it was a sincere attempt at "writing for the enemy". Specifically, I was trying to put myself in the place of someone who doesn't understand the topic and thinks the popular press should be used in preference to the scientific literature. Note my sources satisfied WP:V: major newspapers and magazines, non-self published books, and so on. Maybe it didn't work out that well, so roll back whatever you want. But there's a good chance this is what the future will look like. (And yes, I was a little surprised that the material remained so long without comment.) Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 23:47, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Too far?

This is all very well [6] but probably goes too far William M. Connolley (talk) 21:35, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Any suggestions? Torontokid2006 (talk) 21:53, 24 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Hipocrite has made a useful improvement on that specific point, but our comrade's writing for anemone has left some unfortunate artefacts. Could someone more informed than myself review and undo unwanted changes? . . dave souza, talk 19:53, 25 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]
I notice the Daily Mail citation has been removed in the diff provided just above. Radical commie pinko inbreeder Comrade Boris writes in a nearby talk section that major newspapers (which the Daily Mail is) qualify as reliable sources. But actually the WP:SOURCES and WP:IRS analysis doesn't stop there. For convenience, I'll repeat [essentially] verbatim a comment I submitted some months ago.

I would have thought it a given that the Daily Mail tabloid is an inherently unreliable source [for an article such as this, which deals with current science]. The policy WP:SOURCES plainly states in the first sentence: "Articles should be based upon reliable, third-party published sources with a reputation for fact-checking and accuracy" Any number of background sources would confirm that the Daily Mail does not fit this definition of a WP:RS. See, e.g. The cultural politics of climate change discourse in UK tabloids, by University of Oxford's Maxwell T. Boykoff, or this brief summary reporting of the Oxford study, or another brief review of Daily Mail "predictions" over the course of some 18 months, etc. And of course, the Mail is world famous as a tabloid that plays fast and loose with the truth, not for fact-checking and accuracy.

In a word, the Daily Mail is not a reliable source for the views of the scientific community w.r.t. scientific issues. So, yes, I support the removal of popular literature and newspaper accounts that manufacture controversy where there is no genuine scientific controversy, at least not about the basics of this topic. The question whether GHGs account for all of observed warming in the 20th and early 21st century is about as more controversial among the relevant scientific community as the question "where do babies come from?" is among the general public. And the statement presently in the article summarizing the view of the scientific community as being that present-day global warming is caused by increases in GHG's due to anthropogenic activity is a reasonable statement to straightforwardly make in the article lead. ..... Kenosis (talk) 21:19, 25 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The ideas should be reported. But I agree, the sources were rubbish William M. Connolley (talk) 21:56, 25 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Add Tokyo University's Yoichi Kaya formula F=Pgef ?

Add Tokyo University's Yoichi Kaya formula F=Pgef ?

F = global CO2 emissions (Includes combustion,flaring of natural gas, cement production, oxidation of nonfuel hydrocarbons, and transport.)

P = global Population (Total number of human beings, about 6 billion)

g = Consumption per person (Gross World Product/Population)

e = energy intensity of gross world product (global energy consumption/gross world product)

f = carbon used to make all that energy (global CO2 emissions/global energy consumption)

[7] Wired (magazine) printed page 38, June 2010, by Julie Rehmeyer 99.54.142.111 (talk) 17:52, 25 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Not clear how this adds to the article - unlike Y = C + I + G + NX this dosen't seem to say something interesting - in addition, the variables are less interesting than the "right" variables, which would be population, unit consumption per person, kwh energy use per unit consumption, and lb carbon emission per kwh energy use. Hipocrite (talk) 18:00, 25 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Good points, not clear enough. 99.88.231.63 (talk) 22:22, 25 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Unbiased please

I would like to suggest editing the current wikipedia page on global warming concerning the obvious bias towards the theory that global warming is caused by man. Wikipedia is a source for truthfull information not a venue for propagating a political agenda. Thanks :) —Preceding unsigned comment added by 69.5.108.51 (talk) 07:11, 26 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

See scientific opinion on global warming. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 07:47, 26 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Politics of global warming (United States) &/or Politics of global warming of interest? Then maybe Climate change denial and logically to Climate change mitigation... 99.60.124.196 (talk) 14:24, 26 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]

An equation is documented at [5] that calculates average global temperatures since 1895 with a coefficient of determination of over 0.86. Anyone that can use a spreadsheet can verify it. Dan Pangburn (talk) 22:01, 26 May 2010 (UTC)[reply]