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2018 Karnataka Legislative Assembly election

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Karnataka Legislative Assembly election, 2018
← 2013 12 May 2018 (222 seats)
28 May 2018 (2 seats)		 2023 →
222 of 224 seats in the Karnataka Legislative Assembly
113 seats needed for a majority
Turnout72.13%[1]
  Majority party Minority party Third party
 
Leader B. S. Yeddyurappa Siddaramaiah H. D. Kumaraswamy
Party BJP INC JD(S)
Alliance JD(S) + BSP
Leader's seat Shikaripura Badami
Chamundeshwari 		Ramanagara
Channapatna
Seats before 40 122 40
Seats won 104 78 37
Seat change Increase64 Decrease44 Decrease3
Popular vote 13,185,384 13,824,005 6,666,307
Percentage 36.2% 38% 18.3%
Swing Increase16.3% Increase1.4% Decrease1.9%
Constituencies of the Karnataka Legislative Assembly
Chief Minister before election

Siddaramaiah
INC

Elected Chief Minister

TBD

An election was held in Karnataka on 12 May 2018 in 222 constituencies out of 224 of the Karnataka Legislative Assembly. The election was postponed in two constituencies, Jayanagar and Rajarajeshwari Nagar, following the death of a candidate and a voter fraud scandal respectively.

The incumbent Indian National Congress was seeking re-election, having governed the state since elections in 2013.[2] The Bharatiya Janata Party attempted to regain office, having previously governed the state in 2007 and from 2008 to 2013. The Janata Dal (Secular), and the Bahujan Samaj Party contested the election in an electoral alliance. The Aam Aadmi Party also made its debut in the state.[3] The election led to a hung assembly, with the BJP emerging as the largest party, with 104 seats, but failing to win a majority of seats.[4]

Background

The tenure of Karnataka Assembly ends on May 28, 2018.[5]

Organization

The Times of India reported in late February 2018 that the state had fewer electronic voting machines than the minimum mandated requirement to be stored going into elections for any state assembly. The report stated that only 20 per cent or 11,398 EVMs were in place against the requirement of 56,994 machines, one each for a polling station. Bharat Electronics Limited, which provides 80 per cent of the machines began supplying during this time.[6] The District Election Officer for the Bangalore region stated that a "vulnerability mapping exercise" would be conducted to ensure "free and fair polls". He added that 550 Sector teams, each headed by a sector magistrate, a police officer (not below the rank of an Assistant sub-inspector) and a videographer, were formed, one for every 15 of the 8,274 polling stations in the said region.[7]

Schedule

The schedule of the election was announced by the Election Commission of India on 27 March 2018. It announced that polling would be held in a single phase on 12 May and that results would be declared on 15 May.[8] It also declared that the provisions of the Model Code of Conduct "came into force with immediate effect" with the said announcement.[9][10]

Event Date Day
Date for nominations 17 April 2018 Tuesday
Last date for filing nominations 24 April 2018 Tuesday
Date for scrutiny of nominations 25 April 2018 Wednesday
Last date for withdrawal of candidatures 27 April 2018 Friday
Date of poll 12 May 2018 Saturday
Date of counting 15 May 2018 Tuesday
Date before which the election shall be completed 31 May 2018 Thursday

Controversies

Leaked Election dates

The Election Commission of India ran into a major embarrassment on 27 March 2018, when BJP IT cell head Amit Malviya and Karnataka Congress' social media in-charge, Srivasta, tweeted the dates before they were officially released [11] [12]. However, both of them got the counting day incorrect in their tweets. Both the tweets were deleted after an outrage on Twitter. Amit Malviya later claimed that he got the information from Times Now, a 24 hour English news channel[13]. The news was reportedly also shown by a local Kannada news channel. Later it was revealed that even Times Now got the counting day incorrectly as May 18 2018, instead of May 15 2018.[14]

Om Prakash Rawat, the Chief Election Commissioner of India, formed a committee to investigate into the alleged leak.[15] The terms of reference of the formed committee included probing certain media outlets and Congress' social media head Srivasta, but not BJP's Amit Malviya[16]. This prompted allegations of the Election Commission of India being biased for the BJP by the Congress.

On 14 April 2018, the committee said that the media reports were mere speculation and not a leak.[17]

Voter ID fraud case

On 11th May 2018, Congress MLA Munirathna and 13 others were booked in an alleged fake voter ID scam.On 8th May 2018, almost 10,000 voter ID cards, along with several laptops, were found in a flat in Bengaluru owned by BJP leader Manjula Nanjamari[18][19]. Apart from the voter IDs and laptops, the Munirathna's pamphlets were also found, which turned the needle of suspicion on Munirathna. After the FIR, Munirathna said “I’ve distributed 40,000 pamphlets asking for votes for me in my constituency and you will find them in every home in my segment. I’ve been named as accused no. 14 because one such pamphlet was found in the flat that was raided. This is an outrageous complaint against me and part of the concerted propaganda to harass and humiliate me.”[20][21]

The polling in RR Nagar was postponed to 28th May 2018. The counting of votes is to be done on 31st May 2018.

Election campaign

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) officially began its election campaign on 2 November 2017.[22] The party spent 85 days covering all the assembly constituencies, culminating in Bangalore on 4 February 2018, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressing it.[23] In early March, the party launched a 14-day Protect Bengaluru March travelling across Bangalore aimed at, according to the party, "reviving" and "rebuilding" the city from Indian National Congress' "criminal neglect".[24]

In December 2017, the Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee, although not part of the election campaign, undertook a task of setting up booth-level committees at 54,261 locations in the state which will be responsible to disseminate information on various programmes of the ruling Indian National Congress and their implementation. The move was seen as an "extensive outreach programme" preceding the elections.[25]

Opinion polls

Polling firm/Commissioner Date published bgcolor="Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" | bgcolor="Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" | Lead
BJP INC JD(S) Others
Public TV[26] 2 January 2018 85–95 90–95 40–45 0–6 style="background:Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" |15
TV9-CVoter[27] 5 January 2018 96
35.90% 		102
36.60% 		15
18.80% 		1
8.70% 		style="background:Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" |6
0.7%
CHS[28] 13 January 2018 73–76
36.40% 		77–81
33.20% 		64–66
24.90% 		style="background:Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" |5
-3.2%
Creative Center for Political and Social Studies[29] 2 February 2018 113 85 25 1 style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" |28
C-Fore[30] 26 March 2018 70
31.00% 		126
46.00% 		27
16.00% 		1
7.00% 		style="background:Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" |56
15.0%
India Today-Karvy Insights[31] 13 April 2018 78-86
35% 		90-101
37% 		34-43
19% 		2-12
9% 		style="background:Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" |14
2.0%
BTV[32] 19 April 2018 82-87
35% 		94-99
37% 		39-44
19% 		2-6
9% 		style="background:Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" |12
2.0%
Times Now-VMR[33] 23 April 2018 89
35% 		91
37% 		40
19% 		4
9% 		style="background:Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" |2
2.0%
Jain Lokniti-CSDS[34] 23 April 2018 89-95
35% 		85-91
37% 		32-38
20% 		12
8% 		style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" |4
-2.0%
C-Fore[35] 1 May 2018 63-73
35% 		118-128
37% 		29-36
20% 		2-7
8% 		style="background:Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" |55

2.0%

Jan Ki Baat[36] 4 May 2018 102-108
40% 		72-74
38% 		42-44
20% 		2-4
2% 		style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" |30

2.0%

ABP News-CSDS[37] 7 May 2018 79-89
33% 		92-102
38% 		34-42
22% 		1-7
7% 		style="background:Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" |13

5.0%

Flash News - TV 5[38] 7 May 2018 110-120
36-38% 		65-75
33-35% 		38-42
20-22% 		2-6 style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" |45

3.0%

Samyuktha TV[39] 8 May 2018 80–90 100–110 40–45 0–6 style="background:Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" |20
Spick Media[40] 9 May 2018 88
 101
 		31
 3
 style="background:Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" |13
India TV[41] 9 May 2018 85
 96
 		38
 4
 style="background:Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" |11
News X-CNX[42] 9 May 2018 87
 90
 		39
 7
 style="background:Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" |3
Average as on 8 May 2018 87 96 36 05 style="background:Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" |9

Preferred Chief Minister polling

Some opinion pollsters asked voters the party leader they would prefer as Chief Minister – Siddaramaiah (Indian National Congress), B. S. Yeddyurappa (Bharatiya Janata Party). or H. D. Kumaraswamy (Janata Dal (Secular)). Lokniti-CSDS conducted surveys between 10 and 15 January interviewing 878 people. While 34 per cent of the sample wanted Siddaramaiah to remain the chief minister for the next term, 19 per cent chose Kumaraswamy and 14 per cent chose Yeddyurappa.[43] A poll conducted by CHS in the same month found that Kumaraswamy was the first choice, followed by Yeddyurappa and Siddaramaiah in that order.[44] C-Fore's survey of a sample size of 22,357 voters across 154 assembly constituencies between 1 and 25 March showed that Siddaramaiah, with 45 per cent, was the most popular choice for Chief Minister, followed by Yeddyurappa at 26 per cent and Kumaraswamy at 13 per cent, while 16 per cent preferred 'others'.[45]

Exit polls

The exit polls remained divided, with only one predicting that a party - BJP - will get past the majority mark. 5 predicted that BJP will have the most seats, while 2 predicted that the Congress is in comfortable lead, and 1 predicted a cliffhanger. Today's Chanakya exit poll, which was released last and took into account voting right until polling closure time, predicted clear majority for BJP.

Exit Polls
Polling firm/Commissioner Date published bgcolor="Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" | bgcolor="Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" | Lead
BJP INC JD(S) Others
IndiaTV-VMR[46] 12 May 2018 94 97 28 3 style="background:Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" |3
Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat[47] 12 May 2018 105 78 37 2 style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" |27
ABP News-C Voter[48] 12 May 2018 110 88 24 2 style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" |22
Times Now-VMR[49] 12 May 2018 87 97 35 3 style="background:Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" |10
Times Now-Today's Chanakya[50] 12 May 2018 120 73 26 3 style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" |47
India Today-Axis My India[51] 12 May 2018 85 111 26 0 style="background:Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" |26
NewsX-CNX[52] 12 May 2018 106 75 37 4 style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" |31
News Nation[53] 12 May 2018 107 73 38 4 style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" |34

Result

The election led to a hung assembly, with the BJP emerging as the largest party, with 104 seats, but failing to win a majority of seats.[4]

Parties and coalitions Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Won +/−
bgcolor="Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" | Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 1,31,85,384 36.2 104 Increase64
bgcolor="Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" | Indian National Congress (INC) 1,38,24,005 38.0 78 Decrease44
bgcolor="Template:Janata Dal (Secular)/meta/color" | Janata Dal (Secular) (JDS) 66,66,307 18.3 37 Decrease3
bgcolor="Template:Independent (politician)/meta/color" | Independents (IND) 14,37,045 3.9 1 Decrease8
bgcolor="Template:Bahujan Samaj Party/meta/color" | Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 1,08,592 0.3 1 Increase1
Karnataka Pragnyavantha Janatha Party (KPJP) 74,229 0.2 1 Increase1
Other parties and candidates 6,83,632 2.2 0 Decrease13
bgcolor="Template:None of the Above/meta/color" | None of the Above (NOTA) 3,22,841 0.9
Vacant seat 2 Increase2
Total 100.00 224 ±0

See also

References

  1. ^ "Karnataka election highlights rural-urban divide: State witnesses highest voter turnout, but Bengaluru stays away". Firstpost. Retrieved 16 May 2018. The 72.13 percent voter turnout for the Karnataka Assembly elections has broken all records and is the highest recorded in the state since the 1952 polls, Chief Electoral Officer Sanjeev Kumar said on Saturday.
  2. ^ "Election commission's statistical report on general elections, 2013 to the legislative assembly of Karnataka" (PDF). {{cite web}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  3. ^ "AAP announces 1st list of candidates for Karnataka assembly polls". The Economic Times. 2018-03-20. Retrieved 2018-03-22.
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  5. ^ "Terms of the Houses". Election Commission of India. Retrieved 11 May 2018.
  6. ^ "Karnataka has just 20% of EVMs needed for elections". The Times of India. 27 February 2018. Retrieved 27 March 2018.
  7. ^ "Vulnerability mapping exercise to ensure free and fair polls". The Hindu. 19 March 2018. Retrieved 27 March 2018.
  8. ^ "Karnataka votes on May 12, results on May 15". The Indian Express. 27 March 2018. Retrieved 27 March 2018.
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  10. ^ http://164.100.80.163/ceo2/GenELC_2018/PN22_27032018.pdf%7Cacesssdate=15 April 2018
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  12. ^ Staff, Scroll. "BJP's Amit Malviya writes to EC, defends tweeting Karnataka poll dates before their announcement". Scroll.in. Retrieved 2018-04-14.
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  33. ^ "Times Now-VMR voter survey: Congress set for photofinish in Karnataka; tally to reduce to 91 from 122". Times Now. 23 April 2018. Retrieved 23 April 2018.
  34. ^ "कांग्रेस के हाथ से फिसल सकता है कर्नाटक, बीजेपी की बढ़त लेकिन बहुमत से दूर- सर्वे". ABP News. 23 April 2018. Retrieved 23 April 2018.
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  52. ^ "NewsX-CNX exit poll 2018: A hung Karnataka Assembly with BJP as the single largest party". 12 May 2018.
  53. ^ "Karnataka election 2018: What exit polls can't settle, May 15 will; updates". 12 May 2018.

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