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2019 Atlantic hurricane season

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2019 Atlantic hurricane season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedMay 20, 2019
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Strongest storm
NameDorian
 • Maximum winds185 mph (295 km/h)
(1-minute sustained)
 • Lowest pressure910 mbar (hPa; 26.87 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions9
Total storms8
Hurricanes2
Major hurricanes
(Cat. 3+)
1
Total fatalities≥ 62 total
Total damage> $8.483 billion (2019 USD)
Related articles
Atlantic hurricane seasons
2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021

The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual formation of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. The season officially began on June 1, 2019, and will end on November 30, 2019. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. However, tropical cyclogenesis is possible at any time of the year, as demonstrated by the formation of Subtropical Storm Andrea on May 20, marking the record fifth year in a row where a tropical or subtropical cyclone developed before the official start of the season, breaking the previous record of four years set in 1951–1954.[1] This was also the second year in a row in which no storms formed during the month of June. The season's first hurricane, Barry, formed in July in the northern Gulf of Mexico and struck Louisiana. A series of storms developed in late August, including Hurricane Dorian, the second hurricane and first major hurricane of the season. Dorian struck the Windward Islands as a tropical storm then the United States Virgin Islands and grazed Puerto Rico as a Category 1 hurricane, causing one indirect death, before quickly strengthening into a Category 5 hurricane, as it approached and devastated the Bahamas.

Seasonal forecasts

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2019 season
Source Date Named
storms
Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Average (1981–2010)[2] 12.1 6.4 2.7
Record high activity 28 15 7
Record low activity 4 2 0
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
TSR[3] December 11, 2018 12 5 2
CSU[4] April 4, 2019 13 5 2
TSR[5] April 5, 2019 12 5 2
NCSU[6] April 16, 2019 13–16 5–7 2–3
TWC[7] May 6, 2019 14 7 3
UKMO[8] May 21, 2019 13* 7* 3*
NOAA[9] May 23, 2019 9–15 4–8 2–4
TSR[10] May 30, 2019 12 6 2
CSU[11] June 4, 2019 14 6 2
UA[12] June 11, 2019 16 8 3
TSR[13] July 4, 2019 12 6 2
CSU[14] July 9, 2019 14 6 2
CSU[15] August 5, 2019 14 7 2
TSR[16] August 6, 2019 13 6 2
NOAA[17] August 8, 2019 10–17 5–9 2–4
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Actual activity 8 2 1
* June–November only.
† Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all)

Ahead of and during the season, several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson scale) will form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies include the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of University College London, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. Some of these forecasts also take into consideration what happened in previous seasons and the state of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). On average, an Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained twelve tropical storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of between 66 and 103 units.[2]

Pre-season outlooks

The first forecast for the year was released by TSR on December 11, 2018, which predicted a slightly below-average season in 2019, with a total of 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, due to the anticipated presence of El Niño conditions during the season.[3] On April 4, 2019, CSU released its forecast, predicting a near-average season of 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.[4] On April 5, TSR released an updated forecast that reiterated its earlier predictions.[5] North Carolina State University released their forecast on April 16, predicting slightly-above average activity with 13–16 named storms, 5–7 hurricanes and 2–3 major hurricanes.[6] On May 6, the Weather Company predicted a slightly-above average season, with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.[7] The UK Met Office released their forecast May 21, predicting 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes and an accumulated cyclone energy of 109 units.[8] On May 23, NOAA released their first prediction, calling for a near-normal season with 9–15 named systems, 4–8 hurricanes, and 2–4 major hurricanes.[9] On May 30, TSR released an updated forecast which increased the number of forecast hurricanes from 5 to 6.[10]

Mid-season outlooks

On June 4, CSU updated their forecast to include 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, including Subtropical Storm Andrea.[11] On June 11, University of Arizona (UA) predicted above-average activities: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and accumulated cyclone energy index of 150 units.[12] On July 4, the TSR released their first mid-season outlook, still retaining their numbers from the previous forecast.[13] On July 9, CSU released their second mid-season outlook with the same remaining numbers from their previous forecast.[14] On August 5, the CSU released their third mid-season outlook, still retaining the same numbers from their previous forecast except the slight increase of the number of hurricanes.[15] On August 6, the TSR released their second and final mid-season outlook, with the only changes of increasing the number of named storms from 12 to 13.[16] On August 8, NOAA released their second prediction with increasing the chances for 10–17 named storms, 5–9 hurricanes, and 2–4 major hurricanes,[17] suggesting above-average activity.

Seasonal summary

Tropical Storm Fernand (2019)Hurricane DorianHurricane Barry (2019)Saffir–Simpson scale

For a record fifth consecutive year, activity began before the official start of the season when Subtropical Storm Andrea formed on May 20. No storms formed in the month of June, but activity resumed in July when Hurricane Barry formed. Tropical Depression Three formed soon afterwards. After the dissipation of Three less than 24 hours later, activity again suppressed. However, nearly a month later, on August 21, Tropical Storm Chantal formed, making the 2019 hurricane season the second latest starting season of the 21st century. Early on August 24, Chantal dissipated. Later that day, Hurricane Dorian formed. On August 26, a tropical depression formed off the coast of North Carolina. It would intensify into Tropical Storm Erin late next night. On September 3, Tropical Storm Fernand and Tropical Storm Gabrielle formed.

The accumulated cyclone energy index for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, as of 09:00 UTC September 10, is 57.4975 units.[nb 1]

Systems

Subtropical Storm Andrea

Subtropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationMay 20 – May 21
Peak intensity40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min);
1006 mbar (hPa)

On May 17, 2019, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began forecasting the formation of an area of low pressure south of Bermuda, which had the potential to later develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone.[18] On the following day, a large and elongated area of clouds and thunderstorms developed well to the east of the Bahamas.[19] The disturbance gradually organized over the next two days as it moved westward and then northward, though it still lacked a well-defined circulation. However, an Air Force reconnaissance flight late on May 20 revealed that the storm had a well-defined center with winds reaching gale force, due to being involved with an upper-level low to its west, leading to the classification of the system as Subtropical Storm Andrea at 22:30 UTC that day.[20] Soon afterward, Andrea reached its peak intensity.[21] The nascent storm did not last very long, as the storm encountered dry air from the south, as well as southerly wind shear. These hostile conditions caused Andrea's convection to dissipate, and the storm degenerated into a remnant low early on the next day.[22][23]

Hurricane Barry

Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 11 – July 15
Peak intensity75 mph (120 km/h) (1-min);
991 mbar (hPa)

A trough of low pressure in the Midwest began moving south, towards the Gulf of Mexico.[24] On July 6, the NHC began monitoring it over the Tennessee Valley and forecast it to move southwards, emerge into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, and potentially develop into a tropical cyclone within several days.[25][26][27] Over the next few days, the trough drifted southward, due to the steering influence of a ridge of high pressure, and the trough developed a broad area of low pressure on July 9, shortly before the system entered the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida big bend.[28] The low-pressure system, while still lacking a well-defined center of circulation, became a little better defined on the following day. As the system had a high potential of producing tropical storm conditions and storm surge along the coast of Louisiana within the next couple of days, the NHC initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two at 15:00 UTC on July 10.[29] The system subsequently organized into a tropical storm at 15:00 UTC on July 11.[30] The system slowly moved westward, affecting the U.S. Gulf Coast. The system finally strengthened into a hurricane at 15:00 UTC on July 13 making it the first of the season.[31] However, three hours later, at 18:00 UTC, wind shear began to increase, causing the system to begin weakening. Around that time, Barry made landfall on Intracoastal City, Louisiana, as a Category 1 hurricane, before weakening to tropical storm status afterward,[31][32] causing extensive damage to Lafayette, Lake Charles, and Baton Rouge. Barry gradually weakened while slowly moving inland, weakening into a tropical depression at 21:00 UTC on July 14.[33] At 21:00 UTC on July 15, Barry weakened into a remnant low over northern Arkansas.[34] During the next several days, Barry's remnant moved eastward while gradually weakening,[35] before being absorbed into another frontal system off the coast of New Jersey on July 19.[36]

Barry caused one fatality, with a man killed by a rip current off the coast of the Florida Panhandle on July 15.[37] Damage from the storm is currently at >$600 million (2019 USD).[38]

Tropical Depression Three

Tropical depression (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 22 – July 23
Peak intensity35 mph (55 km/h) (1-min);
1013 mbar (hPa)

Early on July 21, the NHC began monitoring a tropical wave located about 300 miles east of the Bahamas for potential tropical cyclone development.[39] Despite the disturbance having a low chance of tropical cyclone formation, rapid organization ensued on the following day, with a closed low-level circulation developing, as deep convection increased in association with the small low-pressure system. Subsequently, at 21:00 UTC on July 22, the NHC classified the system as Tropical Depression Three.[40] However, deep convection associated with the tropical depression soon dissipated, and although convection redeveloped early on July 23, the cyclone remained disorganized.[41] An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigating the system that morning found no evidence of a surface circulation, and at 15:00 UTC that day, the tropical depression degenerated into a trough of low pressure while located off the east coast of Florida.[42] The storm's remnants continued to move northward, before being absorbed by a frontal system several hours later, early on the next day. The impacts were very minimal,[43] with only 1–3 inches (25–76 mm) of rainfall in South Florida and the Bahamas.[44]

Tropical Storm Chantal

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationAugust 21 – August 24
Peak intensity40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min);
1009 mbar (hPa)

Late on August 16, the NHC began monitoring a surface trough located over Jacksonville, Florida for tropical cyclone development.[45] A small low pressure system developed in association with the trough as it moved northeastward along the East Coast of the United States, although the system's proximity to the coast prevented significant development at that time. Although environmental conditions were not forecast to favor significant development, thunderstorm activity associated with the system became better organized on August 20, and the circulation became better defined.[46] By 03:00 UTC on August 21, the system had developed a well-defined surface circulation and was producing tropical storm-force winds to the south of its center, resulting in the classification of Tropical Storm Chantal over the far northern Atlantic.[47] Chantal lasted 24 hours as a tropical storm before weakening into a tropical depression.[48][49]

Hurricane Dorian

Category 5 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationAugust 24 – September 7
Peak intensity185 mph (295 km/h) (1-min);
910 mbar (hPa)

On August 23, a low-pressure area developed in association with a tropical wave over the open Atlantic Ocean, between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles.[50] The system quickly organized overnight and on August 24, it was classified as a tropical depression several hundred miles east-southeast of Barbados.[51] That same day, it achieved tropical storm status and was given the name Dorian.[52] At first, the system remained small and weak; however, on August 25, it began to strengthen and expand in size.[53] At 1800 UTC on August 28, Dorian reached hurricane status at landfall on the US Virgin Islands. A weather station reported winds of 82 mph (132 km/h) and a gust of 111 mph (179 km/h).[54] There was some dry air still in the system after moving to the north. Eventually, the dry air was expelled from the system, which promoted rapid intensification; Dorian reached Category 3 major hurricane strength on August 30.[55] Rapid intensification continued thereafter, and Dorian reached Category 4 intensity that night, having intensified from a Category 2 hurricane to a Category 4 hurricane in just over 9 hours.[56][57] Dorian strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane on September 1. This made 2019 the record fourth consecutive year to feature a Category 5 hurricane, surpassing the three-year period from 2003–2005.[58] The system continued to strengthen rapidly throughout the day, becoming the strongest hurricane to impact the northwestern Bahamas since modern records began. Dorian made landfall on Elbow Cay at 16:40 UTC that day with 1-minute sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h); the storm continued strengthening during landfall, with its minimum central pressure bottoming out at 910 millibars (26.87 inHg) a few hours later, reaching peak intensity.[59][60] At 02:00 UTC on the next day, Dorian made landfall on Grand Bahama near the same intensity, with the same sustained wind speed.[61] A few hours later, Dorian stalled just north of Grand Bahama island, as the Bermuda High situated to the northeast of the storm collapsed.[62][63] Around the same time, the combination of an eyewall replacement cycle and upwelling of cold water caused Dorian to begin weakening.[64] Hurricane Dorian weakened to a Category 2 storm on September 3, before beginning to move northwestward at 15:00 UTC, parallel to the east coast of Florida; Dorian's wind field expanded during this time.[65] At 06:00 UTC on September 5, Dorian moved over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and completed its eyewall replacement cycle, reintensifying into a Category 3 hurricane.[66] However, several hours later, Dorian moved into a more hostile environment, encountering more wind shear and dry air, which caused the storm to weaken to a Category 2 hurricane, and later to Category 1 intensity, early on September 6.[67] At 12:35 UTC that day, Dorian made landfall on Cape Hatteras, North Carolina as a Category 1 hurricane.[68] On September 7, Dorian transitioned into an extratropical cyclone. At 18:00 UTC that day, Dorian intensified into a Category 2-equivalent extratropical storm, due to baroclinic forcing.[69] Several hours later, at 7:05 p.m. AST on September 7, Dorian made landfall in Sambro Creek, Nova Scotia as a Category 1-equivalent extratropical storm,[70] before making another landfall on the northern part of Newfoundland several hours later.[71] Early on September 9, Dorian weakened and moved away from Atlantic Canada, and the NHC issued their final advisory on the storm.[72]

Hurricane Dorian killed more than 60 people and caused at least $7.50 billion (2019 USD) in damages, with the vast majority of the deaths and damage occurring in the Bahamas, which was the hardest-hit area by the storm.[73][74][75]

Tropical Storm Erin

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationAugust 26 – August 29
Peak intensity40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min);
1005 mbar (hPa)

Early on August 21, the NHC started to monitor a disturbance over the Bahamas for potential development.[76] The disturbance continued northwestward, and briefly moved over Florida. This weakened the system, and then it re-emerged over the Atlantic. A few days later, after having moved northeastward away from Florida, the system was still poorly organized, but a closed circulation prompted the NHC to initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Six at 2100 UTC August 26.[77] Due to northwesterly wind shear, convection was displaced to the south-east quadrant of the center. Due to this, the system struggled to strengthen for a while.[78] However, the center soon moved closer to the convection, which then began to envelop the center. This prompted the National Hurricane Center to upgrade the depression to Tropical Storm Erin.[79] Wind shear displaced the center from the convection a few hours later, weakening the system back to a tropical depression as a result.[80] A day later, the system transitioned into an extratropical cyclone, and the NHC discontinued advisories on the system.[81]

In Nova Scotia, precipitation from the remnants of Erin was higher than for all of July and August combined before the storm. According to the Meteorological Service of Canada, the Annapolis Valley and the Bay of Fundy region received the most precipitation with a maximum of 162 mm at Parrsboro and 127 mm at Greenwood. Elsewhere, 53 mm fell in Halifax, 79 mm in Yarmouth, and at the peak of precipitation, several stations reported rates greater than 30 mm per hour, resulting in increased runoff, causing flash floods and the wash out of roads.[82]

On the New Brunswick side, rain affected the southern part of the province with maximums of 56 mm in Fredericton, 50 mm in Moncton and 44 mm in Saint John.[83] In Prince Edward Island, accumulations ranged from 30 to 60 mm with a maximum of 66 mm in Summerside.[84] However, volunteers' weather stations reported up to 111 mm at Jolicure/Sackville in New Brunswick and up to 95 mm at Borden-Carleton on Prince Edward Island, along the same axis as the Nova Scotia maximums. In Quebec, the regions near the Gulf of St. Lawrence also received about 50 mm of rain.[85]

Tropical Storm Fernand

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationSeptember 3 – September 5
Peak intensity50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min);
1000 mbar (hPa)

A broad area of low pressure began to be monitored over the southeast Gulf of Mexico on August 31 for potential tropical cyclone development.[86] The system gradually developed while moving slowly westward. On September 2, the satellite imagery showed that the surface circulation became better defined, and that the system was more concentrated.[87] On September 3, the disturbance was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven, with a virtually certain chance of tropical cyclone development.[88] Six hours later, the system organized into the seventh tropical depression of the season[89] and rapidly developed into Tropical Storm Fernand.[90] Fernand made landfall just north of La Pesca in Tamaulipas, Mexico, on September 4, bringing heavy rainfall and storm surge.[91] The storm weakened rapidly and dissipated within 12 hours of landfall.[92]

Fernand brought torrential rainfall to the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, and San Luis Potosí. Fernand also dumped heavy rainfall over South Texas. In preparation for the storm, the Mexican government activated Plan DN-III-E, sending 4,000 troops to the northeastern states to assist in disaster relief. In Nuevo León, schools and public transport lines were closed on September 5 but resumed operations the next day. Of the states, Nuevo León was the hardest hit, suffering at least MX$7.5 billion (US$383 million) in damage. In some places, six months of rain fell in six hours. Landslides were reported near the state's capital, Monterrey. Homes, roads, bridges, and at least 400 schools were damaged. In García, a Venezuelan man died after he was swept away by floodwaters while attempting to clear a drain; the two people he was working with managed to escape. On September 7, governor of Nuevo León, Jaime Rodríguez Calderón, declared a state of emergency to request for state funds to address the damage. Elsewhere, in Tamaulipas, 12 in (300 mm) of rain fell in 48 hours, leading to some coastal flooding.[93][94]

Tropical Storm Gabrielle

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationSeptember 3 – September 10
Peak intensity65 mph (100 km/h) (1-min);
995 mbar (hPa)

On August 30, the NHC began monitoring a tropical wave emerging from the west coast of Africa.[95] Over the next few days, the disturbance slowly organized, and the system strengthened into the eighth tropical depression of the season late on September 3, then overnight into Tropical Storm Gabrielle.[96][97] The system remained poorly organized, also encountered high wind shear and dry air and on September 6, the storm degenerated into a remnant low.[98] However, convection began to appear on the northern part of the center only a few hours afterward, marking Gabrielle's regeneration into a tropical storm.[99] Soon afterward, Gabrielle began tracking westward, then made a turn to the northeast and left the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.[100] Soon afterward, Gabrielle degenerated into an extratropical cyclone. Gabrielle’s remnants later struck Ireland and the United Kingdom on September 12.[101]

Tropical Storm Humberto

Tropical Storm Humberto
Current storm status
Tropical storm (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:11:00 a.m. EDT (15:00 UTC) September 14
Location:26°36′N 76°42′W / 26.6°N 76.7°W / 26.6; -76.7 (Tropical Storm Humberto) ± 30 nm
About 30 mi (45 km) ENE of Great Abaco Island
About 125 mi (200 km) E of Freeport, Bahamas
Sustained winds:45 kn (50 mph; 85 km/h) (1-min mean)
gusting to 45 kn (50 mph; 85 km/h)
Pressure:1005 mbar (29.68 inHg)
Movement:Nearly stationary
See more detailed information.

On September 12, at 21:00 UTC, the NHC initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.[102] 24 hours later it developed into a Tropical Depression.[103] On the same day, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Humberto.[104]

Current storm information

As of 11:00 a.m. EDT (15:00 UTC) September 14, Tropical Storm Humberto is located within 30 nautical miles of 26°36′N 76°42′W / 26.6°N 76.7°W / 26.6; -76.7 (Humberto), about 30 mi (45 km) east-northeast of Great Abaco Island and about 125 mi (200 km) east of Freeport, Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kn (50 mph; 85 km/h), with gusts to 55 kn (65 mph; 100 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 1005 mbar (29.68 inHg), and the system is nearly stationary. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center of Humberto.

For latest official information, see:

Watches and warnings

Template:HurricaneWarningsTable

Storm names

The following list of names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2019. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2020. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2025 season. This is the same list used in the 2013 season, with the exception of the name Imelda, which replaced Ingrid.

  • Humberto (active)
  • Imelda (unused)
  • Jerry (unused)
  • Karen (unused)
  • Lorenzo (unused)
  • Melissa (unused)
  • Nestor (unused)
  • Olga (unused)
  • Pablo (unused)
  • Rebekah (unused)
  • Sebastien (unused)
  • Tanya (unused)
  • Van (unused)
  • Wendy (unused)

Season effects

This is a table of all the storms that have formed in the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a tropical wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in USD. Potential tropical cyclones are not included in this table.

Saffir–Simpson scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2019 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season statistics
Storm
name
Dates active Storm category
at peak intensity
Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h)
Min.
press.
(mbar)
Areas affected Damage
(USD)
Deaths Ref(s)
Andrea May 20 – 21 Subtropical storm 40 (65) 1006 Bermuda None None
Barry July 11 – 15 Category 1 hurricane 75 (120) 991 Eastern United States, Louisiana, Great Lakes region >$600 million 0 (1) [37][38]
Three July 22 – 23 Tropical depression 35 (55) 1013 The Bahamas, Florida None None
Chantal August 21 – 24 Tropical storm 40 (65) 1009 East Coast of the United States None None
Dorian August 24 – September 7  Category 5 hurricane 185 (295) 910 Barbados, Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, The Bahamas, East Coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, southern Greenland, Iceland, Jan Mayen >$7.5 billion 54 (6) [105][74][73]
Erin August 26 – 29 Tropical storm 40 (65) 1005 Cuba, The Bahamas, East Coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada Minimal None
Fernand September 3 – 5 Tropical storm 50 (85) 1000 Northeastern Mexico, South Texas $383 million ≥ 1 [94][93]
Gabrielle September 3 – 10 Tropical storm 65 (100) 995 Cape Verde, British Isles None None
Humberto September 13 – present Tropical storm 50 (85) 1004 Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas None None
Season aggregates
9 systems May 20 –
Season ongoing
  185 (295) 910 >$8.483 billion ≥ 55 (7)  

See also

Notes

  1. ^ The totals represent the sum of the squares for every (sub)tropical storm's intensity of over 33 knots (38 mph, 61 km/h), divided by 10,000. Calculations are provided at Talk:2019 Atlantic hurricane season/ACE calcs.

References

  1. ^ Klotzbach, Philip [@philklotzbach] (May 20, 2019). "The Atlantic has now had named storms form prior to 1 June in five consecutive years: 2015–2019. This breaks the old record of named storm formations prior to 1 June in four consecutive years set in 1951–1954" (Tweet). Retrieved May 20, 2019 – via Twitter.
  2. ^ a b "Background Information: The North Atlantic Hurricane Season". Climate Prediction Center. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. August 9, 2012. Retrieved December 13, 2013.
  3. ^ a b Mark Saunders; Adam Lea (December 11, 2018). "Extended Range Forecast for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019" (PDF). London, United Kingdom: Tropical Storm Risk.
  4. ^ a b "2019 Hurricane Season Expected to Be Near Average, Colorado State University Outlook Says". The Weather Channel. Retrieved April 4, 2019.
  5. ^ a b Mark Saunders; Adam Lea (April 5, 2019). "April Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019" (PDF). London, United Kingdom: Tropical Storm Risk.
  6. ^ a b Tracey Peake (April 16, 2019). "NC State Researchers Predict Normal 2019 Hurricane Season for East Coast". Raleigh, North Carolina: NC State University.
  7. ^ a b Jonathan Erdman; Brian Donegan (May 6, 2019). "2019 Hurricane Season Expected to be Slightly Above Average But Less Active Than Last Year". The Weather Company. Retrieved May 7, 2019.
  8. ^ a b "North Atlantic tropical storm seasonal forecast 2019". Met Office. May 21, 2019. Retrieved May 23, 2019.
  9. ^ a b Lauren Gaches (May 23, 2019). "NOAA predicts near-normal 2019 Atlantic hurricane season". NOAA. Retrieved May 23, 2019.
  10. ^ a b Mark Saunders; Adam Lea (May 30, 2019). "Pre-Season Forecast for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019" (PDF). London, United Kingdom: Tropical Storm Risk. Retrieved June 3, 2019.
  11. ^ a b "2019 Hurricane Season Expected to Be Near Average, Colorado State University Outlook Says". The Weather Channel. Retrieved June 5, 2019.
  12. ^ a b "University of Arizona (UA) Forecasts an Above-Average Hurricane Season" (PDF). University of Arizona. Retrieved June 12, 2019.
  13. ^ a b Mark Saunders; Adam Lea (July 4, 2019). "July Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019" (PDF). London, United Kingdom: Tropical Storm Risk.
  14. ^ a b "ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2019" (PDF). Retrieved July 9, 2019.
  15. ^ a b "ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2019" (PDF). Retrieved August 5, 2019.
  16. ^ a b Mark Saunders; Adam Lea (August 6, 2019). "August Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019" (PDF). London, United Kingdom: Tropical Storm Risk.
  17. ^ a b "NOAA TO ISSUE UPDATED 2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK". Retrieved August 8, 2019.
  18. ^ Eric S. Blake (May 17, 2019). "Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 20, 2019.
  19. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (May 18, 2019). "Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 20, 2019.
  20. ^ John P. Cangialosi (May 20, 2019). "Subtropical Storm Andrea Special Discussion Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 20, 2019.
  21. ^ Stacy R. Stewart (May 20, 2019). "Subtropical Storm Andrea Public Advisory Number 3". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 20, 2019.
  22. ^ Stacy Stewart (May 21, 2019). "Subtropical Storm Andrea Discussion Number 3". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 22, 2019.
  23. ^ Richard Pasch (May 21, 2019). "Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Discussion Number 5". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  24. ^ weather.com meteorologists. "Potential Tropical Storm Barry to Impact Gulf Coast With Severe Flooding, Surge, Wind Threats; Hurricane Watch Issued". The Weather Channel. Web. Archived from the original on July 11, 2019. Retrieved July 11, 2019. Computer forecast models for several days have shown that an upper-level disturbance meteorologists call a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) originated in the Midwest last week, then moved from the Deep South into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
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