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Climate change in Turkey

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This article is about the effects of global warming on the Eurasian country and adaptation to it. For gases which contribute to global warming, and their mitigation, see Greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey.
Köppen–Geiger climate classification map for Turkey
Flash floods are predicted to become more frequent as here in Sinop
but the Büyük Menderes River, full in November 2007, may halve its average flow by 2100.
The glacier on Mount Ararat will soon be gone
and anchovies may no longer swim to Turkish waters.
Zonguldak: Turkey's first coal mining region would need help to give up.
There is hope: trees in the northeast are being helped by Anatolian reforestation.

Turkey is one of the countries which is being most affected by climate change.[1][2] Annual temperatures are rising[3] as are maximum temperatures.[4] Greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey are 1% of the global total[5] and are forecast to rise substantially[6] because the energy policy of Turkey is to heavily subsidize coal in Turkey.[7]

History

According to Prof. Dr. Murat Türkeş, a member of the board of Boğaziçi University’s Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies, modern climate change in Turkey started in the 1970s.[8]

Greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey

Main article: Greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey

Turkey emits about 500 Mt CO2eq gross each year, about 6 tons per person.[9] Almost three quarters is from the energy sector,[9] the largest source being Turkey's coal-fired power stations.[10]

Effects

Turkey is forecast to be more severely effected than many other countries,[11][12] but effects will vary considerably across the regions of the country.[13]

Weather

The weather is becoming more extreme.[14] During the 21st century temperatures are forecast to rise by 2-3 °C on average and precipitation to significantly reduce.[15] However, as well as more droughts more floods are predicted, due to rain falling instead of snow.[16] The worst case is a 7 degree rise by 2100.[17]

Health

Climate change may impact health in Turkey, for example due to increased heatwaves.[18]

Wildfires

Wildfires have increased[19] due to climate change.[20]

Cities

Urban heatwaves,[21] droughts,[22] storms,[23] and flooding,[24] may increase.[25] Sea level rise is forecast to affect city infrastructure, for example Istanbul Kadıkoy metro station is threatened with flooding.[16] Xeriscaping of green spaces has been suggested,[26] and Istanbul has a climate change action plan.[27] However, according to a 2018 study by Trakya University more local climate change action plans need to be prepared urgently.[28]

Water

Glaciers in Turkey including the glaciers on Mount Ararat are retreating.[29] According to Professor Barış Karapınar, water is lost through evaporation due to old-fashioned irrigation techniques used by the Southeastern Anatolia Project, increasing the risk of severe water shortage.[30] Reduced precipitation[31] and hydroelectricity in Turkey is forecast.[32] Floods in 2020 caused billions of lira in damages.[33]

Agriculture

Turkish Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Industry

Unless global emissions are greatly reduced agriculture in Turkey, such as wheat,[34][35] is expected to be severely affected after the late 2030s especially in areas with rain fed agriculture.[36] Arid and semi-arid areas are at risk of desertification.[2] Irrigated agriculture will decline as water stress increases and increasing food imports will hit Turkey's trade balance.[36] Damage to agriculture [37] is predicted to greatly increase.[36] Pine nut production has been severely reduced.[38]

Fishing

The warming of Lake Van is reducing oxygen for pearl mullet.[39]

Politics

According to the Eleventh Development Plan (2019-2023): "It is seen that climate change accelerating due to high greenhouse gas emissions causes natural disasters and poses a serious threat to humanity." and "International climate change negotiations will be conducted within the framework of the Intended National Contribution with the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, and within the scope of national conditions, climate change will be tackled in sectors causing greenhouse gas emissions and the resilience of the economy and society to climate risks will be increased by capacity building for adaptation to climate change."[40]

Turkey, like neighbouring Iran, is one of the few countries that has signed but not ratified the Paris Agreement, in other words it is a signatory but not one of the parties to the agreement.[41] The main opposition Republican People's Party has called for the agreement to be ratified.[42][43]

Similarly Turkey has signed but not ratified the Kigali Amendment.[44] It has no carbon tax or emissions trading scheme, therefore carbon capture and storage is not used as it is not economically viable.[45] Also "given the fact that a new coal-fired power plant has a minimum of 40 years of economic life, Turkey's coal rush could create an inextricable carbon lock-in."[11]

Protests

In 2019 some Turkish schoolchildren joined the School strike for climate[46] and Turkey's branch of Extinction Rebellion demonstrated for Turkey to ratify the Paris Agreement.[47]

Economics

Although it is very difficult to determine with certainty the future economic impacts of climate change, the studies' previsions indicate enormous losses if adequate solutions are not put in place. So, Millions of dollars could be lost.[48] Loss in Gross Domestic Product per capita by 2100 is forecast to be less than 1% for slight global warming (RCP2.6 Scenario) but almost 8% for severe global warming (RCP8.5 Scenario).[49]

Religion

Hagia Sophia. built as the new Cathedral of Constantinople by the Emperor Justinian in 537 AD

Muslim environmentalists and academics quote the Quran in support of their environmentalism,[50] and in Istanbul in 2015 Islamic leaders urged the world's 1.6 billion Muslims to help defeat climate change.[51][52]

Education

The arts are raising awareness of climate change[53] and education is supported by the EU.[54]

Misunderstandings about climate change

Individual action on climate change is not properly understood (in a survey of primary school teachers many erroneously prioritised using less cosmetics) and neither are government choices on climate change mitigation (in the same survey only a minority correctly prioritised curbing fossil fuel use).[55] Future warming of seawater by Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant is wrongly thought by some to be relevant to climate change,[13] and few know that geothermal power in Turkey might emit considerable CO2.[56]

Adaptation

In 2019 the OECD recommended that adaptation efforts be increased,[57] an international conference on local actions was held,[58] and work on 12 regional adaptation plans continued.[59] Protection of water resources and soil quality have been considered,[60] however Turkey has yet to submit a National Adaptation Plan to the UNFCCC.[61]

Media coverage

In the 1990s independent media outlet Açık Radyo (Open Radio) was one of the first to cover climate change, and its founder Ömer Madra(in Turkish) emphasises "The three Y’s in the fight on climate change: Yerel (local) Yatay (horizontal, not vertical) and Yavaş (slow, no resort to violence)."[62] İklim Haber is another active source for the coverage of climate change issues for the readers in Turkey. They describe their operations as "focusing on latest developments from the areas of climate science, climate policy, and the economy of climate change by trying to publish the news objectively and data-oriented." [63]

Pre-modern climate change

There were 2 significant periods of climate change in the Bronze Age.[64]

Sources

  • Aşıcı, Ahmet Atıl (May 2017). "Climate friendly Green Economy Policies" (PDF). Istanbul Policy Center. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2018-10-02. Retrieved 2018-10-02.
  • Atilgan, Burcin; Azapagic, Adisa (2016). "An integrated life cycle sustainability assessment of electricity generation in Turkey". Energy Policy. 93: 168–186. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2016.02.055.
  • Jensen, Génon K. (May 2014). "The Unpaid Health Bill: How Coal Power Plants in Turkey make us Sick" (PDF). Health and Environment Alliance (HEAL).
  • ŞAHIN, Ümit (April 2016). "Turkey's Coal Policies Related to Climate Change, Economy and Health" (PDF). Istanbul Policy Center.
  • ŞAHIN, Ümit (February 2018). "Carbon Lock-in in Turkey" (PDF). Istanbul Policy Center. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2019-08-31. Retrieved 2018-10-02.
  • Şahin, Ümit; Türkkan, Seçil (January 2019). "Turkey's Climate Policies Have Reached a Deadlock: It Takes Courage to Resolve It" (PDF). saha. Vol. Special Issue 2. pp. 24–30. ISSN 2149-7885.
  • "Sixth National Communication of Turkey under the UNFCCC" (PDF). Ministry of Environment and Urbanization. 2016.
  • "Seventh National Communication of Turkey under the UNFCCC" (PDF). Ministry of Environment and Urbanization. 26 December 2018.
  • "OECD Environmental Performance Reviews: Turkey 2019". OECD. OECD Environmental Performance Reviews. February 2019. doi:10.1787/9789264309753-en. ISBN 9789264309746.
  • Republic of Turkey Climate Change Action Plan 2011 - 2023 (PDF) (Report). Ministry of Environment and Urbanization General Directorate of Environmental Management Climate Change Department. 2012.

References

  1. ^ "Turkey battles climate change: Nationwide efforts give hope for the future". Daily Sabah. 11 October 2018.
  2. ^ a b "Küresel ısınma". Kocaeli Province water board. Archived from the original on 16 September 2018. Retrieved 16 September 2018.
  3. ^ Şen, Prof. Dr. Ömer Lütfi. "Climate Change in Turkey". Mercator-IPC Fellowship Program. Retrieved 16 September 2018.
  4. ^ "Monthly and Seasonal Trend Analysis of Maximum Temperatures over Turkey" (PDF). International Journal of Engineering Science and Computing. 7 (11). November 2017. Retrieved 16 September 2018.
  5. ^ "Each Country's Share of CO2 Emissions". Union of Concerned Scientists. Retrieved 16 September 2018.
  6. ^ "Brown to Green: G20 Transition to a Low Carbon Economy" (PDF). Climate Transparency. Retrieved 16 September 2018.
  7. ^ "Fossil Fuel Support - TUR", OECD, accessed September 2018.
  8. ^ "Turkey in the midst of climate change, says climate expert - Turkey News". Hürriyet Daily News. Retrieved 2020-11-11.
  9. ^ a b "Statistics on Environment, 2016". Turkish Statistical Institute. Retrieved 17 September 2018.
  10. ^ CO2 emissions from fuel combustion: Highlights (PDF). International Energy Agency. 2017. p. 97.
  11. ^ a b "Warming a Frozen Policy: Challenges to Turkey's Climate Politics After Paris". Turkish Policy Quarterly.
  12. ^ Turkey's Seventh National Communication and Third Biennial Report to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (PDF). Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization. Retrieved 2 November 2018.
  13. ^ a b İkli̇m Deği̇şi̇kli̇ği̇ni̇n Yerel Etki̇leri̇ Raporu (PDF). TEMA Vakfı Proje Ekibi WWF-Türkiye Proje Ekibi. March 2015. ISBN 978-975-7169-77-2.
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  15. ^ Ministry of Environment and Urbanization (2016), p. 22
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  23. ^ "Lightning electrifies Istanbul, northwestern Turkey skies as thunderstorms take over". Daily Sabah. 24 July 2018.
  24. ^ "Istanbul flood result of Turkey's climate change". Anadolu Agency. 27 July 2017.
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  26. ^ Çetin, Nefise; Mansuroğlu, Sibel; Kalaycı Önaç, Ayşe (2018). "Xeriscaping Feasibility as an Urban Adaptation Method for Global Warming: A Case Study from Turkey". Pol. J. Environ. Stud. 27 (3): 1009–1018. doi:10.15244/pjoes/76678.
  27. ^ "İstanbul İklim Değişikliği Eylem Planı". Retrieved 17 April 2019.
  28. ^ Yıldırım, Kübra Özcan (2018). "Akademik Kurumlarda Örgütsel Adalet Ve Dişlanma İlişkisi: Araştirma Görevlileri Üzerine Bir Araştirma". Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi: 177–194. doi:10.26468/trakyasobed.502209.
  29. ^ Baldasso, V.; Soncini, A.; Azzoni, R.S.; et al. (2018). "Recent evolution of glaciers in Western Asia in response to global warming: the case study of Mount Ararat, Turkey". Theor Appl Climatol. 137 (1–2): 45–59. doi:10.1007/s00704-018-2581-7.
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  31. ^ Turkes, Murat; Turp, M. Tufan; An, Nazan; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent (2020), Harmancioglu, Nilgun B.; Altinbilek, Dogan (eds.), "Impacts of Climate Change on Precipitation Climatology and Variability in Turkey", Water Resources of Turkey, World Water Resources, Cham: Springer International Publishing, pp. 467–491, doi:10.1007/978-3-030-11729-0_14, ISBN 978-3-030-11729-0, retrieved 2020-10-24
  32. ^ "Increasing Droughts in Turkey are likely to put Pressure on its Hydropower Sector". Future Directions International. 2019-07-03. Retrieved 2019-07-11.
  33. ^ "Turkey: Pandemic stresses need for green transformation".{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  34. ^ "Reducing emissions could mitigate worst effects of climate change, study finds".
  35. ^ Rojas, Maisa; Lambert, Fabrice; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Challinor, Andrew J. (2019-04-02). "Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 116 (14): 6673–6678. doi:10.1073/pnas.1811463116. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 6452695. PMID 30858318.
  36. ^ a b c Dudu, Hasan; Çakmak, Erol H. (2018). "Climate change and agriculture: an integrated approach to evaluate economy-wide effects for Turkey". Climate and Development. 10 (3): 275–288. doi:10.1080/17565529.2017.1372259.
  37. ^ Ağaçayak, Tuğba; Keyman, E. Fuat. "Water and Food Security in Turkey in a Changing Climate" (PDF). Istanbul Policy Center, Sabancı University. Retrieved 16 September 2018.
  38. ^ "Climate change hits Turkey's richest highland villages". Daily Sabah.
  39. ^ "Lake Van warms up, threatening ecosystem". Ihlas News Agency. 21 February 2018.
  40. ^ Eleventh Development Plan (2019-2023) (PDF) (Report). Presidency of Strategy and Budget. 2020.
  41. ^ "United Nations Treaty Collection". United Nations Treaty Collection. Retrieved 2020-11-24.
  42. ^ "The climate issue in Turkey". Hürriyet Daily News. Retrieved 2020-11-24.
  43. ^ "English :: CHP: The Real Survival Problem is the Climate Crisis". m.bianet.org. Retrieved 2020-11-24.
  44. ^ "United Nations Treaty Collection". treaties.un.org. Retrieved 2020-11-24.
  45. ^ "Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage in the Context of Turkish Energy Market" (PDF). IICEC. June 2018.
  46. ^ "'When adults fail, we need to take action,' says activist - Turkey News". Hürriyet Daily News. Retrieved 2019-10-01.
  47. ^ "Extinction Rebellion calls for people to 'rise up' against Turkish government". Morning Star. 16 April 2019.
  48. ^ "Turkey in the midst of climate change, says climate expert - Turkey News". Hürriyet Daily News. Retrieved 2020-11-11.
  49. ^ Matthew E. Kahn Kamiar Mohaddes Ryan N.C. Ng M. Hashem Pesaran Mehdi Raissi Jui-Chung Yang (August 2019). "Long-term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: a Cross-country Analysis" (PDF). NBER Working Paper Series.
  50. ^ Bodetti, Austin. "Why Turkish academic Ibrahim Ozdemir is pushing for an Islamic approach to environmentalism". alaraby. Retrieved 2019-10-01.
  51. ^ "Islamic Declaration on Climate Change" UNFCCC, 18 August 2015
  52. ^ "Islamic Declaration on Global Climate Change" (PDF). The Islamic Foundation For Ecology And Environmental Sciences. Retrieved 7 May 2019.
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  55. ^ Yalcin, Fatma Aggul; Yalcin, Mehmet (2017). "Turkish Primary Science Teacher Candidates' Understandings of Global Warming and Ozone Layer Depletion". Journal of Education and Training Studies. 5 (10): 218. doi:10.11114/jets.v5i10.2225.
  56. ^ "Characterizing the declining CO2 emissions from Turkish geothermal power plants" (PDF). World Bank. Retrieved 26 March 2019.
  57. ^ OECD (2019), page 38
  58. ^ "1st International Conference on Local Climate Action". 25 April 2019.
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  60. ^ "Turkey's National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan" (PDF). General Directorate of Environmental Management, Department of Climate Change, August 2012, Ankara (2nd edition). Ministry of Environment and Urban Planning (Turkey). Retrieved 1 October 2018.
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  62. ^ "Local activism at the heart of fight against 'global heating' - Turkey News". Hürriyet Daily News. Retrieved 2020-02-10.
  63. ^ "Hakkımızda" [About Us]. İklim Haber (in Turkish). Retrieved 2020-11-25.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  64. ^ October 30; 2020. "Study: Ancient people in Turkey adapted to climate change". Cornell Chronicle. Retrieved 2020-11-11. {{cite web}}: |last2= has numeric name (help)CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
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