Opinion polling for the 2021 Senedd election
 | It has been suggested that Leadership approval opinion polling for the 2021 Senedd election be merged into this article. (Discuss) Proposed since November 2020. |
In the run-up to the 2021 Senedd election, various organisations are expected to carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Most of the pollsters listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
The date range for these opinion polls is from the 2016 National Assembly for Wales election, held on 5 May 2016, to the present day. Following the passage of the Senedd and Elections (Wales) Act 2020, the election will be for the newly named Senedd and will be the first Welsh election which includes 16 and 17 year olds in the electoral franchise. Furthermore, since January 2020 most opinion polls have also included this data set to reflect the enfranchisement in the next election.[1]
Under the Wales Act 2017 it is scheduled to take place on 6 May 2021.[2]
Graphical summary
The constituency vote is shown as semi-transparent lines, while the regional vote is shown in full lines.
Constituency vote
The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 40 single member constituency seats elected through the plurality voting system.
Graphical summary
The chart below depicts constituency vote opinion polls conducted for the Senedd election.
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll results
| Pollster | Client(s) | Date(s) conducted |
Sample size |
Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru |
UKIP | Lib Dem | Green | Abolish | Reform UK[a] | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Welsh Conservatives/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Plaid Cymru/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Welsh Liberal Democrats/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Wales Green Party/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;"| | ||||||
| Andrew R. T. Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[3] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 11–14 Jan 2021 | 1,018 | 34% | 26% | 22% | – | 4% | 6% | – | 5% | 4% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="3%"|8% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 26–30 Oct 2020 | 1,013 | 38% | 27% | 20% | – | 3% | 3% | – | 5% | 4% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="3%"|11% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 28 Aug – 4 Sep 2020 | 1,110 | 34% | 29% | 24% | – | 3% | 3% | – | 4% | 3% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="3%"|5% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 29 May – 1 Jun 2020 | 1,021 | 34% | 31% | 22% | – | 5% | 3% | – | 3% | 3% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="3%"|3% |
| Survation | Centre for Welsh Studies | 22–31 May 2020 | 1,051 | 40% | 26% | 18% | – | 7% | – | – | 8% | 2% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="3%"|14% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 4–7 Apr 2020 | 1,008 | 31% | 38% | 19% | – | 4% | 3% | – | 4% | 0% | style="background:Template:Welsh Conservatives/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-2%"|7% |
| ICM | BBC Wales | 4–22 Feb 2020 | 1,000 | 31% | 31% | 26% | 2% | 6% | 2% | – | 2% | 1% | Tie |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 20–26 Jan 2020 | 1,037 | 33% | 35% | 19% | 0% | 5% | 3% | – | 4% | 1% | style="background:Template:Welsh Conservatives/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-2%"| 2% |
| 2019 United Kingdom general election | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 6–9 Dec 2019 | 1,020 | 33% | 31% | 18% | 0% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 0% | style="background: Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 25–28 Nov 2019 | 1,116 | 32% | 26% | 20% | 0% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 11% | 0% | style="background: Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 6% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 31 Oct – 4 Nov 2019 | 1,136 | 27% | 24% | 21% | 0% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 14% | 0% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 3% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 10–14 Oct 2019 | 1,032 | 25% | 23% | 22% | 0% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 15% | 0% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 23–26 Jul 2019 | 1,071 | 21% | 19% | 24% | – | 12% | 4% | — | 19% | 2% | style="background:Template:Plaid Cymru/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 3% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 16–20 May 2019 | 1,009 | 25% | 17% | 24% | 1% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 17% | 0% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 1% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 2–5 Apr 2019 | 1,025 | 31% | 23% | 24% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 0% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 7% |
| ICM | BBC Wales | 7–23 Feb 2019 | 1,000 | 34% | 23% | 27% | 5% | 7% | 2% | – | – | 2% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 7% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 19–22 Feb 2019 | 1,025 | 32% | 26% | 23% | 7% | 8% | 3% | 1% | – | 2% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 6% |
| Sky Data | Cardiff University | 7–14 Dec 2018 | 1,014 | 42% | 26% | 22% | 4% | 3% | 2% | – | – | 1% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 16% |
| Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister[4][5] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 4–7 Dec 2018 | 1,024 | 40% | 25% | 20% | 5% | 7% | 2% | 1% | – | 0% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 15% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 30 Oct – 2 Nov 2018 | 1,031 | 38% | 28% | 19% | 6% | 6% | 1% | 1% | – | 1% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 10% |
| Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[6] | |||||||||||||
| Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[3] | |||||||||||||
| Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales[7] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 28 Jun – 2 Jul 2018 | 1,031 | 38% | 28% | 21% | 4% | 6% | 1% | 1% | – | 1% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 10% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 12–15 Mar 2018 | 1,015 | 39% | 28% | 22% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 1% | – | 0% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 11% |
| ICM | BBC Wales | 8–25 Feb 2018 | 1,001 | 40% | 22% | 24% | 5% | 6% | 1% | – | – | 2% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 16% |
| Alyn and Deeside by-election[8] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 21–24 Nov 2017 | 1,016 | 43% | 26% | 19% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 1% | – | 1% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 17% |
| Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[9] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 4–7 Sep 2017 | 1,011 | 43% | 25% | 19% | 4% | 5% | 1% | 1% | – | 0% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 18% |
| 2017 United Kingdom general election | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 29–31 May 2017 | 1,014 | 42% | 26% | 19% | 5% | 6% | 1% | 1% | – | 0% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 16% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 18–21 May 2017 | 1,025 | 40% | 27% | 20% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 0% | – | 1% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 13% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 5–7 May 2017 | 1,018 | 33% | 33% | 20% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 1% | – | 1% | Tie |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 19–21 Apr 2017 | 1,029 | 29% | 30% | 22% | 8% | 8% | 1% | 1% | – | 1% | style="background:Template:Welsh Conservatives/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-1%"| 1% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 3–6 Jan 2017 | 1,034 | 31% | 25% | 21% | 12% | 8% | 2% | 1% | – | 0% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 6% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 18–21 Sep 2016 | 1,001 | 34% | 24% | 20% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | – | 0% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 10% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 30 Jun – 4 Jul 2016 | 1,010 | 32% | 19% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 1% | 1% | – | 0% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 9% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 30 May – 2 Jun 2016 | 1,017 | 34% | 18% | 23% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | – | 0% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 11% |
| 2016 election | 5 May 2016 | – | 34.7% | 21.2% | 20.5% | 12.5% | 7.7% | 2.5% | – | – | 1.0% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 13.6% | |
Regional vote
The opinion polls below are gauge voting intentions for the 20 regional list seats elected through the additional member system.
Graphical summary
The chart below depicts regional vote opinion polls conducted for the next Senedd election.
| Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll results
| Pollster | Client(s) | Date(s) conducted |
Sample size |
Lab | Plaid Cymru |
Con | UKIP | Lib Dem | Abolish | Green | Reform UK[a] | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Plaid Cymru/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Welsh Conservatives/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Welsh Liberal Democrats/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Wales Green Party/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;"| | ||||||
| Andrew R. T. Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[3] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 11–14 Jan 2021 | 1,018 | 30% | 23% | 25% | – | 4% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 1% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="4%"|5% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 26–30 Oct 2020 | 1,013 | 33% | 20% | 24% | – | 4% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 2% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="4%"|9% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 28 Aug – 4 Sep 2020 | 1,110 | 33% | 23% | 27% | – | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="4%"|6% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 29 May – 1 Jun 2020 | 1,021 | 32% | 24% | 28% | – | 5% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="4%"|4% |
| Survation | Centre for Welsh Studies | 22–31 May 2020 | 1,051 | 36% | 22% | 23% | – | 7% | – | – | 10% | 2% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="3%"|13% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 4–7 Apr 2020 | 1,008 | 29% | 18% | 37% | 0% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 2% | style="background:Template:Welsh Conservatives/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-8%"|8% |
| ICM | BBC Wales | 4–22 Feb 2020 | 1,000 | 31% | 25% | 29% | 2% | 5% | – | 3% | 3% | 2% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;|2% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 20–26 Jan 2020 | 1,037 | 32% | 19% | 32% | 0% | 5% | 3% | – | 3% | 5% | Tie |
| 2019 United Kingdom general election | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 6–9 Dec 2019 | 1,020 | 32% | 19% | 28% | 0% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 7% | 1% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;| 4% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 25–28 Nov 2019 | 1,116 | 29% | 21% | 26% | 0% | 7% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 0% | Style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 3% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 31 Oct – 4 Nov 2019 | 1,136 | 23% | 21% | 23% | 1% | 9% | 4% | 5% | 13% | 1% | Tie |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 10–14 Oct 2019 | 1,032 | 23% | 21% | 22% | 1% | 10% | 3% | 5% | 14% | 0% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 1% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 23–26 Jul 2019 | 1,071 | 19% | 23% | 18% | – | 12% | — | 4% | 17% | 7% | style="background:Template:Plaid Cymru/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 4% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 16–20 May 2019 | 1,009 | 21% | 22% | 12% | 1% | 7% | 3% | 8% | 23% | 1% | style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-1%"| 1% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 2–5 Apr 2019 | 1,025 | 28% | 22% | 20% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 2%[b] | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 6% |
| ICM | BBC Wales | 7–23 Feb 2019 | 1,000 | 32% | 25% | 22% | 6% | 6% | – | 3% | – | 6% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 7% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 19–22 Feb 2019 | 1,025 | 29% | 23% | 24% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 4% | – | 4%[c] | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 5% |
| Sky Data | Cardiff University | 7–14 Dec 2018 | 1,014 | 39% | 22% | 23% | 4% | 2% | 7% | 2% | – | 1% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 16% |
| Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister[4][5] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 4–7 Dec 2018 | 1,024 | 36% | 20% | 24% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | – | 3%[d] | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 12% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 30 Oct – 2 Nov 2018 | 1,031 | 37% | 18% | 26% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 4% | – | 2%[b] | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 11% |
| Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[6] | |||||||||||||
| Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[3] | |||||||||||||
| Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales[7] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 28 Jun – 2 Jul 2018 | 1,031 | 37% | 22% | 25% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 3% | – | 1%[b] | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 12% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 12–15 Mar 2018 | 1,015 | 36% | 21% | 27% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 3% | – | 1%[b] | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 9% |
| ICM | BBC Wales | 8–25 Feb 2018 | 1,001 | 36% | 22% | 21% | 8% | 6% | – | 2% | – | 3% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 14% |
| Alyn and Deeside by-election[8] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 21–24 Nov 2017 | 1,016 | 38% | 18% | 27% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 3% | – | 2%[e] | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 11% |
| Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[9] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 4–7 Sep 2017 | 1,011 | 40% | 19% | 23% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 3% | – | 2%[f] | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 17% |
| 2017 United Kingdom general election | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 29–31 May 2017 | 1,014 | 38% | 17% | 27% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 2% | – | 2%[g] | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 11% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 18–21 May 2017 | 1,025 | 37% | 19% | 26% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 3% | – | 1% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 11% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 5–7 May 2017 | 1,018 | 31% | 20% | 32% | 5% | 6% | 3% | 3% | – | 2%[g] | style="background:Template:Welsh Conservatives/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-1%"| 1% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 19–21 Apr 2017 | 1,029 | 27% | 20% | 28% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 5% | – | 2%[b] | style="background:Template:Welsh Conservatives/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-1%"| 1% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 3–6 Jan 2017 | 1,034 | 28% | 20% | 22% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | – | 1% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 6% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 18–21 Sep 2016 | 1,001 | 29% | 21% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 4% | 3% | – | 3%[h] | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 7% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 30 Jun – 4 Jul 2016 | 1,010 | 29% | 24% | 18% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 4% | – | 3%[i] | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 5% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 30 May – 2 Jun 2016 | 1,017 | 32% | 21% | 18% | 14% | 6% | 4% | 4% | – | 0% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 11% |
| 2016 election | 5 May 2016 | – | 31.5% | 20.8% | 18.8% | 13.0% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.0% | – | 2.1% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 10.6% | |
Leadership polling
Seat projections
Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre provides seat projections based on individual opinion polls at regular intervals on his blog, known as Elections in Wales.
| Pollster | Client(s)/Publisher(s) | Date(s) conducted |
Sample size |
Lab | Plaid Cymru |
Con | UKIP | Lib Dem | Green | Abolish | Reform UK[a] | Other | Majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Plaid Cymru/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Welsh Conservatives/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Welsh Liberal Democrats/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Wales Green Party/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;"| | ||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 11–14 Jan 2021 | 1,018 | 26 | 15 | 16 | – | 1 | – | 2 | 0 | – | 5 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 26–30 Oct 2020 | 1,013 | 28 | 11 | 16 | – | 1 | – | 4 | 0 | – | 3 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 28 Aug – 4 Sep 2020 | 1,110 | 25 | 15 | 19 | – | 1 | – | – | 0 | – | 6 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 29 May – 1 Jun 2020 | 1,021 | 25 | 15 | 19 | – | 1 | – | – | 0 | – | 6 short |
| Survation | Centre for Welsh Studies | 22–31 May 2020 | 1,051 | 29 | 12 | 13 | – | 1 | – | – | 5 | – | 2 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 4–7 Apr 2020 | 1,008 | 23 | 10 | 26 | – | 1 | – | – | 0 | – | 5 short |
| ICM | BBC Wales | 4–22 Feb 2020 | 1,000 | 21 | 18 | 20 | – | 1 | – | – | 0 | – | 10 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 20–26 Jan 2020 | 1,037 | 24 | 13 | 22 | – | 1 | – | – | 0 | – | 7 short |
| 2019 United Kingdom general election | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 6–9 Dec 2019 | 1,020 | 25 | 11 | 19 | – | 1 | – | – | 4 | – | 6 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 25–28 Nov 2019 | 1,116 | 25 | 12 | 17 | – | 1 | – | – | 5 | – | 6 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 31 Oct – 4 Nov 2019 | 1,136 | 18 | 15 | 18 | – | 2 | – | – | 7 | – | Tie |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 10–14 Oct 2019 | 1,032 | 18 | 13 | 14 | – | 6 | – | – | 9 | – | 13 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 23–26 Jul 2019 | 1,071 | 17 | 15 | 11 | – | 7 | – | – | 10 | – | 14 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 16–20 May 2019 | 1,009 | 20 | 13 | 7 | – | 2 | 5 | – | 13 | – | 11 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 2–5 Apr 2019 | 1,025 | 23 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 1 | – | – | 4 | – | 8 short |
| ICM | BBC Wales | 7–23 Feb 2019 | 1,000 | 25 | 19 | 14 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 6 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 19–22 Feb 2019 | 1,025 | 23 | 16 | 17 | 2 | 2 | – | – | – | – | 8 short |
| Sky Data | Cardiff University | 7–14 Dec 2018 | 1,014 | 29 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 1 | – | 2 | – | – | 2 short |
| Mark Drakeford officially becomes leader of Welsh Labour and First Minister[4][5] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 4–7 Dec 2018 | 1,024 | 29 | 13 | 16 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 2 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 30 Oct – 2 Nov 2018 | 1,031 | 29 | 11 | 18 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 2 short |
| Adam Price officially becomes leader of Plaid Cymru[6] | |||||||||||||
| Paul Davies officially becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives[3] | |||||||||||||
| Gareth Bennett officially becomes leader of UKIP Wales[7] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 28 Jun – 2 Jul 2018 | 1,031 | 28 | 15 | 15 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 3 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 12–15 Mar 2018 | 1,015 | 28 | 13 | 17 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 3 short |
| ICM | BBC Wales | 8–25 Feb 2018 | 1,001 | 30 | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 1 short |
| Alyn and Deeside by-election[8] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 21–24 Nov 2017 | 1,016 | 30 | 10 | 18 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 1 short |
| Jane Dodds officially becomes leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[9] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 4–7 Sep 2017 | 1,011 | 31 | 11 | 16 | 1 | 1 | – | – | – | – | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="1" | 2 |
| 2017 United Kingdom general election | |||||||||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 19–21 Apr 2017 | 1,029 | 21 | 14 | 18 | 5 | 2 | – | – | – | – | 10 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 3–6 Jan 2017 | 1,034 | 22 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 2 | – | – | – | – | 9 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 18–21 Sep 2016 | 1,001 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 5 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 30 Jun – 4 Jul 2016 | 1,010 | 25 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 6 short |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales & Cardiff U. | 30 May – 2 Jun 2016 | 1,017 | 27 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 4 short |
| 2016 election | 5 May 2016 | – | 29 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 1 | – | – | – | – | 2 short | |
See also
- Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election in Wales
- Opinion polling for the 2021 Scottish Parliament election
- Opinion polling for the next Northern Ireland Assembly election
- Opinion polling for the 2016 National Assembly for Wales election
Notes
- ^ a b c Known as the Brexit Party from 2018 until January 2021.
- ^ a b c d e Including the Welsh Christian Party with 1%
- ^ Including the Socialist Labour Party and Welsh Christian Party with 1%
- ^ Including the BNP and Welsh Christian Party with 1%
- ^ Including the Communist Party of Britain with 1%
- ^ Including the BNP with 1%
- ^ a b Including the Socialist Labour Party with 1%
- ^ Including the Welsh Christian Party, BNP and Communist Party of Britain with 1%
- ^ Including the Welsh Christian Party and Communist Party of Britain with 1%
References
- ^ "16 and 17 year olds get right to vote - a historic day for democracy in Wales". Senedd Cymru. 27 November 2019. Retrieved 19 January 2021.
- ^ "Wales Act 2017" (PDF). Legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
- ^ a b c d e "Andrew RT Davies returns as Welsh Conservatives leader". BBC News. 24 January 2021. Retrieved 24 January 2021. Cite error: The named reference "Davies" was defined multiple times with different content (see the help page).
- ^ a b c "Welsh Labour leadership: Mark Drakeford set to be Wales' first minister". BBC News. 6 December 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
- ^ a b c "Wales new First Minister Mark Drakeford is sworn in". BBC News. 13 December 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
- ^ a b c "Plaid Cymru leadership contest: Adam Price wins". BBC News. 28 September 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
- ^ a b c "UKIP Wales members elect Gareth Bennett as assembly leader". BBC News. 10 August 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
- ^ a b c "Jack Sargeant wins Alyn and Deeside by-election". BBC News. 7 February 2018. Retrieved 23 May 2019.
- ^ a b c "Jane Dodds is new Welsh Liberal Democrat leader". BBC News. 3 November 2017. Retrieved 21 May 2019.
External links
- Roger Scully's Elections in Wales – Etholiadau yng Nghymru
- Britain Elects Senedd voting intention archive (2015–present)
- Results of the 2016 National Assembly for Wales election
| Senedd elections | |
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| Leadership approval |
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| Referendums | |
