Jump to content

2020 Myanmar general election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This is an old revision of this page, as edited by Yue (talk | contribs) at 08:48, 3 February 2021 (Consistency with other articles.). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

2020 Myanmar general election
← 2015 8 November 2020
315 (of the 440) seats to the House of Representatives
221 seats needed for a majority
161 (of the 224) seats to the House of Nationalities[1]
113 seats needed for a majority
  First party Second party
 
Leader Aung San Suu Kyi Than Htay
Party NLD USDP
Leader since 27 September 1988 23 August 2016
Leader's seat Kawhmu Zeyathiri (lost)
Last election 255 R / 135 N 30 R / 11 N
Seats won 258 R / 138 N 26 R / 7 N
Seat change Increase3 R / Increase3 N Decrease4 R / Decrease4 N
Results of the election in the Pyithu Hluttaw, Amyotha Hluttaw, as well as State and Regional Hluttaws
President before election

Win Myint
NLD

President after election

Election results annulled
State Administrative Council formed with Min Aung Hlaing as Chairman

Politics of Myanmar
Constitution
Government
Legislature (dissolved)
Judiciary
Recent elections
Administrative divisions
Foreign relations
Exiled government
Related topics
flag Myanmar portal

General elections were held in Myanmar on 8 November 2020. Voting occurred in all constituencies, excluding seats appointed by or reserved for the military, to elect members to both the upper house- Amyotha Hluttaw (the House of Nationalities) and the lower house- Pyithu Hluttaw (the House of Representatives) of the Assembly of the Union, as well as State and Regional Hluttaws (legislatures). Ethnic Affairs Ministers were also elected by their designated electorates on the same day, although only select ethnic minorities in particular states and regions were entitled to vote for them. A total of 1,171 national, state, and regional seats were contested in the election, with polling having taken place in all townships, including areas considered conflict zones and self-administered regions.[2]

On 1 February 2021, the Tatmadaw (Myanmar Armed Forces) declared the results of the election to be illegitimate and launched a coup d'état that deposed State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint.[3]

Electoral system

All offices elected by popular vote are contested under a first-past-the-post system, in which a candidate needs only a plurality of votes in a constituency to be elected. All candidates must be citizens of Myanmar. One-quarter of seats in both houses of the Assembly of the Union and one-third of seats in state and regional legislatures are reserved for the military under the 2008 Constitution, and three ministries (Home Affairs, Border Affairs, and Defense) of the national government formed following the election must be headed by a military appointee. After the new legislators take office, the President and the two Vice Presidents of Myanmar are elected by the Presidential Electoral College, made up of MPs from three committees: one of elected members from each house of the Assembly of the Union, and one from the military-appointed members. Each committee recommends one candidate, and the Assembly then holds a vote. The position the candidates are elected to depends on their overall vote total (the highest vote-getter becomes President, while the second-highest becomes First Vice President, and the remaining candidate becomes Second Vice President). People married to a non-Burmese citizen and/or who have children without Burmese citizenship are barred from being elected to any presidential position. Elected officials will take office in March 2021. For a majority, a party or coalition(s) require 221 seats in the House of Representatives and 113 seats in the House of Nationalities.

On 29 June 2020, the Union Election Commission (UEC) announced the constituency reapportionment for the 168 non-appointed seats of the House of Nationalities (Amyotha Hluttaw), 330 non-appointed seats of the House of Representatives (Pyithu Hluttaw), 644 non-appointed seats of the State and Regional Hluttaws and 29 Ethnic Affair Ministers. The UEC also announced in which constituencies elections would be fully or partially cancelled on 16 October 2020 and 27 October 2020. Elections were fully cancelled in 15 townships and partially in 41.

Elections were fully cancelled in:

  • 9 townships in Rakhine State
  • 6 townships in Shan State

Elections were partially cancelled in:

  • 2 townships and 42 village-tracts in Bago Region
  • 1 township and 94 village-tracts in Chin State
  • 11 townships and 192 village-tracts in Kachin State
  • 6 townships and 53 village-tracts in Kayin State
  • 1 township and 1 village-tract in Mon State
  • 4 townships, 15 wards and 130 village tracts in Rakhine State
  • 16 townships, 8 wards and 130 village tracts in Shan State
Constituencies of the 2020 Myanmar general election
Pyithu Hluttaw
(House of Representatives)
constituencies allocated 		Amyotha Hluttaw
(House of Nationalities)
constituencies allocated 		State and Regional Hluttaws
(State and Regional Assemblies)
constituencies allocated 		Ethnic Affairs
Ministers constituencies allocated
Ayeyarwady Region 26 12 52 2
Bago Region 28 12 56 1
Chin State 9 12 18 0
Kachin State 18 12 36 4
Kayah State 7 12 14 1
Kayin State 7 12 14 3
Magway Region 25 12 50 1
Mandalay Region[a] 36 12 56 1
Mon State 10 12 20 3
Rakhine State 17 12 34 1
Sagaing Region 37 12 74 2
Shan State 55 12 110 7
Tanintharyi Region 10 12 20 1
Yangon Region 45 12 90 2
Total 330 168 644 29

Background

The prior elections in 2015 were only the second to be considered at least semi-democratic in the country since 1960 (the first being in 1990, which the military invalidated), as for a majority of its independent history, it was either controlled by a totalitarian dictatorship or a military junta. The National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, won a majority of seats and votes, taking 86 percent of the seats in the Assembly of the Union (235 in the House of Representatives and 135 in the House of Nationalities), well more than the 67 percent supermajority needed to ensure that its preferred candidates would be elected president and second vice president in the Presidential Electoral College. The party technically also needed at least 67 percent to outvote the combined pro-military bloc in the Presidential Electoral College (the Union Solidarity and Development Party and the appointed legislators representing the military). Although NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi is constitutionally barred from the presidency (as both her late husband and her children are foreign citizens), she was the de facto head of government, after being appointed to a newly created office, the State Counsellor of Myanmar, a position akin to a Prime Minister.[4] Most political parties in the country are ethnically-based, with only two (the NLD and the USDP) having large sway at the national level, although both are dominated by the ethnic Bamar majority. Parties also tend to be based more on personality (based on the attitudes and personality of their leaders) rather than a stable ideological platform.

The election took place during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as both the Rohingya conflict and the Rohingya genocide (alongside international condemnation for these events). In addition, the government has also been criticised for restricting press freedom and having failed to deal with the country's economic issues, putting dents in its electoral promise of reform.[5][6][7]

Rohingya conflict

Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy's actions since being elected in 2015 have been described by international media and international organisations including the United Nations, International Criminal Court, and Amnesty International as failing to stop the persecution of the Rohingya people, a Muslim minority group mainly in Rakhine State,[8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18] although it is unclear how much say they actually have, regardless of their relative silence on the matter. The actions of the military, who are said to hold the real power in the region,[19][20] have been described as crimes against humanity and a genocide.[21][22][23][24][25][26] Over 25,000 people have been killed in the conflicts, with tens of thousands more being injured or subjected to sexual violence,[27] in addition to over 725,000 people having fled the country, mostly to neighboring Bangladesh. Media activity in the province is heavily restricted by the government. The Rohingya are currently classed as stateless people, as Myanmar refuses to give them citizenship, claiming they are illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, despite evidence suggesting they have been present in the area for centuries. In the rare cases that Rohingya individuals do possess citizenship, the government routinely refuses to acknowledge the validity of documents they provide.[28]

Economic issues

According to the IMF:[29]

  • Myanmar has seen a sharp decline in exports, remittances, and tourist arrivals due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Domestic economic activity has also been constrained by measures taken to control the spread of the virus. Additionally, nearly four out of five workers in Myanmar are employed in the informal sector, with limited access to social safety nets to help cope with any economic fallout.
  • Natural gas comprised 40 percent of exports and 20 percent of government revenues in fiscal year 2018/19, and due to a drop in prices in 2020, the current account and fiscal position of the country became even more strained.
  • The Burmese kyat, in contrast to trends elsewhere in the region, has appreciated in value. "The country's trade deficit had narrowed for about a year, leading to exchange rate appreciation pressures. This trend has now started to unwind. This may continue as imports pick up and the economy is projected to recover. At the same time, Myanmar’s foreign exchange intervention rule, adopted late last year, has facilitated accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, which remain inadequate."

In addition, some construction and infrastructure projects have been either delayed or cancelled due to supply and demand shocks as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, including the US$1 billion Yangon Elevated Expressway and the development of the US$8-10 billion Dawei Special Economic Zone and accompanying US$137.1 million Dawei-Htee Kee Road linking the zone to Ratchaburi in Thailand. The government has also not been able to muster up enough funds to put together a stimulus package, only allocating the equivalent of around US$72 million to assist small- and medium-sized enterprises compared to the tens of billions allocated in nearby countries like Thailand.[30] Prior to the pandemic, some areas of the country's economy had been highlighted as trouble spots, including bank lending and tourism.[31] GDP growth is expected to decline nearly 7% from the prior year, with overall GDP expected to about break even with the prior year due to the pandemic.[32]

COVID-19 pandemic

Despite only reporting around 300 confirmed cases of COVID-19 nationwide as of early July 2020, Myanmar has limited testing capacity, so the true extent of the spread of the virus is still unknown. Regardless, authorities implemented strict containment measures early on, including travel restrictions, closure of land borders, and bans on mass public gatherings.[29] Nevertheless, the number of confirmed cases has ballooned to more than 50,000 by November 2020.

Constitutional reform

In January 2019, the National League for Democracy pushed for constitutional reform, but was unsuccessful because any changes required 75% approval in the legislature, and 25% of seats are reserved for the military. Outside of these seats, the pro-military USDP was also unlikely to go along (as well as other minor parties potentially being unwilling), meaning any proposals were dead on arrival.[31]

Aftermath

Main article: 2021 Myanmar coup d'état

On 1 February 2021, Aung San Suu Kyi was arrested by the Myanmar military after they declared the election results fraudulent.[33]

Opinion polls

Opinion polling is generally rare in Myanmar, meaning there is not much data on public opinion, although questions have occasionally been asked on political and other matters.

Question: In general, would you say our country is heading in the right or wrong direction?

Date Polling firm Publisher Right direction Wrong direction Don't know /

No response

July 2019 Center for Insights in Survey Research International Republican Institute 77 19 5
April 2017 Center for Insights in Survey Research International Republican Institute 75 16 9

The main item a majority felt the country was headed in the right direction with was infrastructure, while the main reasons people felt the country was headed in the wrong direction included increasing prices of goods, continuing poor economic conditions, and ethnic violence. Illicit drug use and crime were also cited as major problems in the 2019 poll.


Question: How would you describe the current economic situation in the country?

Date Polling firm Publisher Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad Don't know /

No response

July 2019 Center for Insights in Survey Research International Republican Institute 10 51 25 9 5
April 2017 Center for Insights in Survey Research International Republican Institute 10 53 22 9 6


Question: As of now, in order to amend the Constitution it would require the support of more than 75% of parliament. Do you support or oppose making it easier to change the Constitution by amending this requirement?

Date Polling firm Publisher Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don't know /

No response

July 2019 Center for Insights in Survey Research International Republican Institute 43 37 4 5 11
April 2017 Center for Insights in Survey Research International Republican Institute 48 32 4 5 11

Most respondents who supported making it easier to change the Constitution also supported changing the requirement that spouses and any children of a candidate be citizens in order to be eligible for the presidency.


Question: Do you support giving the states and regions more autonomy and power so that they can make decisions for themselves, or do you think that all power and decisions should be centralized and made by the union government?

Date Polling firm Publisher More regional autonomy Centralized power Don't know /

No response

July 2019 Center for Insights in Survey Research International Republican Institute 22 70 8
April 2017 Center for Insights in Survey Research International Republican Institute 23 67 10

Despite most respondents preferring more centralized power at the national level, slightly over half felt that states/regions should have more control over natural resources located within their boundaries.

Results

House of Nationalities

A ballot paper of 2020


Template:Election summary Myanmar

State/Region NLD USDP Others Total
State
Chin 12 12
Kachin 10 1 1 12
Kayah 7 2 3 12
Kayin 11 1 12
Mon 9 3 12
Rakhine 1 4 5
Shan 4 3 5 12
Regional
Ayeyarwady 12 12
Bago 12 12
Magway 12 12
Mandalay 12 12
Sagaing 12 12
Taninthayi 12 12
Yangon 12 12
Total 138 7 16 161


The list of military appointees was published as the UEC Announcement 2/2016.[34]

House of Representatives

Template:Election summary Myanmar

State/Region NLD USDP Others Total
State
Chin 8 1 9
Kachin 13 4 1 18
Kayah 4 1 2 7
Kayin 6 1 7
Mon 8 2 10
Rakhine 2 1 5 8
Shan 18 16 15 49
Regional
Ayeyarwady 26 26
Bago 28 28
Magway 25 25
Mandalay 35 1 36
Sagaing 36 1 37
Taninthayi 10 10
Yangon 44 1 45
Total 255 22 24 315

The list of military appointees was published as the UEC Announcement 1/2016.[35]

State and Regional Hluttaws

Template:Election summary Myanmar

[36]

State/Region NLD USDP Others Total
State
Chin 16 2 18
Kachin 28 4 8 36
Kayah 9 3 3 15
Kayin 13 2 2 17
Mon 17 6 23
Rakhine 5 1 11 17
Shan 33 24 48 105
Regional
Ayeyarwady 54 54
Bago 57 57
Magway 51 51
Mandalay 57 57
Sagaing 74 2 76
Taninthayi 21 21
Yangon 89 2 1 92
Total 501 38 73 612


The list of military appointees was published as the UEC Announcement 3/2016.[37]

Ethnic Affairs Ministers

29 Ministers of Ethnic Affairs for the State and Regional Assemblies were up for election.


Template:Election summary Myanmar

State/Region NLD USDP Others Total
State
Chin
Kachin
Kayah
Kayin
Mon
Rakhine
Shan
Regional
Ayeyarwady
Bago
Magway
Mandalay
Sagaing
Taninthayi
Yangon
Total

Notes

  1. ^ Including Naypyidaw Union Territory

References

  1. ^ Naing, Shoon; Aung, Thu Thu (9 November 2020). "Aung San Suu Kyi's ruling party claims resounding election win in Myanmar". Reuters. Retrieved 10 November 2020.
  2. ^ "Myanmar sets November 8 date for general election". Al Jazeera. 2 July 2020. Retrieved 28 July 2020.
  3. ^ "Myanmar coup: Aung San Suu Kyi detained as military seizes control". BBC News. 1 February 2021. Retrieved 3 February 2021.
  4. ^ "Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy Wins Majority in Myanmar". BBC News. 13 November 2015. Retrieved 13 November 2015.
  5. ^ "Is the world getting Myanmar wrong?". The Economist. 26 October 2017. Archived from the original on 28 October 2017. Retrieved 30 October 2017.(subscription required)
  6. ^ "Press freedom is waning in Myanmar". The Economist. 8 March 2018. Archived from the original on 8 March 2018. Retrieved 9 March 2018.(subscription required)
  7. ^ Nebehay, Stephanie; Naing, Shoon; Collett-White, Mike. "Myanmar army, government aim to silence independent journalism: U.N." Reuters. Archived from the original on 12 September 2018. Retrieved 13 September 2018.
  8. ^ Taub, Amanda; Fisher, Max (31 October 2017). "Did the World Get Aung San Suu Kyi Wrong?". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 14 November 2017. Retrieved 14 November 2017.
  9. ^ Beech, Hannah (25 September 2017). "What Happened to Myanmar's Human-Rights Icon?". The New Yorker. Archived from the original on 14 November 2017. Retrieved 14 November 2017.
  10. ^ "Dispatches – On Demand – All 4". Channel 4. Archived from the original on 15 May 2018. Retrieved 14 May 2018.
  11. ^ Cook, Jesselyn (24 April 2018). "Suu Kyi's Silence: Why Myanmar's Leader Is Ignoring The Rohingya Genocide". HuffPost. Archived from the original on 23 May 2020. Retrieved 22 May 2020.
  12. ^ Ratcliffe, Rebecca (12 November 2018). "Aung San Suu Kyi stripped of Amnesty's highest honour over 'shameful betrayal'". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 12 November 2018. Retrieved 27 July 2020.
  13. ^ "AP finds mass graves, latest evidence of Rohingya genocide in Myanmar". CBS News. Archived from the original on 11 April 2018. Retrieved 10 April 2018.
  14. ^ "U.N. genocide advisor: Myanmar waged 'scorched-earth campaign' against the Rohingya". Los Angeles Times. Archived from the original on 11 April 2018. Retrieved 10 April 2018.
  15. ^ "UN official convinced of Myanmar Rohingya 'genocide'". CNN. Archived from the original on 11 April 2018. Retrieved 10 April 2018.
  16. ^ "UN Security Council: End disgraceful inaction on Myanmar's Rohingya crisis". Amnesty International. 11 December 2017. Archived from the original on 11 April 2018. Retrieved 10 April 2018.
  17. ^ "Tillerson: Myanmar clearly 'ethnic cleansing' the Rohingya". CNN. Archived from the original on 10 April 2018. Retrieved 10 April 2018.
  18. ^ "'Hallmarks of genocide': ICC prosecutor seeks justice for Rohingya". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 10 April 2018. Retrieved 10 April 2018.
  19. ^ Tarabay, Jamie (6 December 2017). "Myanmar's military: The power Aung San Suu Kyi can't control". CNN. Retrieved 30 July 2020.
  20. ^ Wade, Francis (2 October 2017). "How Myanmar's Military Wields Power From the Shadows" (Interview). Interviewed by Eleanor Albert. Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved 29 July 2020.
  21. ^ "Permanent Peoples Tribunal finds Myanmar guilty of genocide". New Straits Times. Bernama. 22 September 2017. Archived from the original on 1 February 2018.
  22. ^ "Myanmar found guilty of genocide". The Daily Star. 23 September 2017. Archived from the original on 29 September 2017.
  23. ^ Nebehay, Stephanie (27 August 2018). "U.N. calls for Myanmar generals to be tried for genocide, blames Facebook for incitement". Reuters. Archived from the original on 5 September 2018. Retrieved 23 August 2018.
  24. ^ "Myanmar Rohingya: UN says military leaders must face genocide charges," Archived 6 September 2018 at the Wayback Machine 27 August 2018, BBC News. Retrieved 28 August 2018
  25. ^ "Investigators call for genocide prosecutions over slaughter of Rohingyas," Archived 29 August 2018 at the Wayback Machine 27 August 2018, CBS News. Retrieved 28 August 2018
  26. ^ Beech, Hannah (25 August 2018). "Year After Rohingya Massacres, Top Generals Unrepentant and Unpunished". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 2 September 2018. Retrieved 27 August 2018.
  27. ^ Khan, Ahmed. "Prevalence of violence against children: Evidence from 2017 Rohingya Refugee crises". ResearchGate. Retrieved 14 August 2019.
  28. ^ Naing, Shoon (25 August 2020). "Rohingya politicians excluded from Myanmar election". Reuters. Retrieved 25 August 2020.
  29. ^ a b De, Jayendu; Nadeem, Sanaa (7 July 2020). "Six Charts on Myanmar's Economy in the Time of COVID-19". International Monetary Fund. Retrieved 29 July 2020.
  30. ^ Bharat, Shah Suraj (17 April 2020). "COVID-19 Threatens Myanmar's Economy". The Diplomat. Retrieved 29 July 2020.
  31. ^ a b Sainsbury, Michael (26 February 2019). "The gloom about Myanmar's economy". The Lowy Institute. Retrieved 29 July 2020.
  32. ^ "Myanmar's Economy Severely Impacted by COVID-19: Report - Myanmar". ReliefWeb. 25 June 2020. Retrieved 29 July 2020 – via The World Bank.
  33. ^ "Myanmar's Aung San Suu Kyi 'detained by military'". BBC News. Retrieved 31 January 2021.
  34. ^ Union Election Commission (19 January 2016). [Announcement 2/2016: Defence Services Personnel Representatives for Amyotha Hluttaw]. Myanmar Alin (in Burmese). Ministry of Information (Myanmar). p. 8 http://www.moi.gov.mm/npe:zg/sites/default/files/newspaper-journal/2016/01/19/mal%2019.1.16.pdf. Retrieved 11 March 2016. {{cite news}}: |trans-title= requires |title= or |script-title= (help); |url= missing title (help)
  35. ^ Union Election Commission (19 January 2016). [Announcement 1/2016: Defence Services Personnel Representatives for Pyithu Hluttaw]. Myanmar Alin (in Burmese). Ministry of Information (Myanmar). p. 8 https://web.archive.org/web/20180929051151/http://www.moi.gov.mm/npe:zg/sites/default/files/newspaper-journal/2016/01/19/mal%2019.1.16.pdf. Archived from the original (PDF) on 29 September 2018. Retrieved 11 March 2016. {{cite news}}: |archive-url= missing title (help); |trans-title= requires |title= or |script-title= (help)
  36. ^ https://asiafoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Myanmar_2020-General-Election-State-and-Region-Hluttaws.pdf
  37. ^ Union Election Commission (19 January 2016). "တပ်မတော်သား တိုင်းဒေသကြီးလွှတ်တော် သို့မဟုတ် ပြည်နယ်လွှတ်တော်ကိုယ်စားလှယ် အမည်စာရင်း ကြေညာချက် အမှတ် (၃/၂၀၁၆)" [Announcement 3/2016: Defence Services Personnel Representatives for State or Regional Hluttaws] (PDF). Myanmar Alin (in Burmese). Ministry of Information (Myanmar). pp. 9–10. Archived from the original (PDF) on 29 September 2018. Retrieved 11 March 2016.
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020_Myanmar_general_election&oldid=1004578735"