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2011 Portuguese legislative election

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2011 Portuguese legislative election
← 2009 5 June 2011 2015 →
All 230 seats in the Portuguese Assembly
116 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered9,624,354 Increase1.1%
Turnout5,585,054 (58.0%)
Decrease1.7 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Pedro Passos Coelho José Sócrates Paulo Portas
Party PSD PS CDS–PP
Leader since 26 March 2010 29 September 2004 21 April 2007
Leader's seat Vila Real[1] Castelo Branco[2] Aveiro[3]
Last election 81 seats, 29.1% 97 seats, 36.6% 21 seats, 10.4%
Seats won 108 74 24
Seat change Increase 27 Decrease 23 Increase 3
Popular vote 2,159,181 1,566,347 653,888
Percentage 38.7% 28.0% 11.7%
Swing Increase 9.6 pp Decrease 8.6 pp Increase 1.3 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Jerónimo de Sousa Francisco Louçã
Party PCP Left Bloc
Alliance CDU
Leader since 27 November 2004 24 March 1999
Leader's seat Lisbon[4] Lisbon[5]
Last election 15 seats, 7.9% 16 seats, 9.8%
Seats won 16 8
Seat change Increase 1 Decrease 8
Popular vote 441,147 288,923
Percentage 7.9% 5.2%
Swing Steady 0.0 pp Decrease 4.6 pp
Prime Minister before election

José Sócrates
PS

Prime Minister-designate

Pedro Passos Coelho
PSD

Politics of Portugal
Coat of arms of Portugal
Constitution
Executive
Legislature
Judiciary
Elections
Administrative divisions
Foreign relations

A legislative election was held in Portugal on 5 June 2011 to elect all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.[6] Pedro Passos Coelho led the centre-right Social Democratic Party to victory over the Socialist Party, led by incumbent Prime Minister José Sócrates.[7] Despite a historically low turnout of less than 60% of registered voters, the right-wing won a clear mandate, winning nearly 130 MPs, more than 56% of the seats, and just over 50% of the vote. While the People's Party, continuing the trend they began in 2009, earned their best score since 1983, the Social Democrats exceeded the expected result in the opinion polls and won the same number of seats as they did in 2002, when the PSD was led by José Manuel Durão Barroso. Of the twenty districts of the country, Pedro Passos Coelho's party won seventeen, including Lisbon, Porto, Faro, Portalegre, Castelo Branco, Coimbra, Santarém and the Azores, that tend to favor the Socialist Party.

The defeat of the PS was severe, as they lost in eleven districts and fell below 30% of the votes cast, a first since the election of 1991. This heavy defeat led José Sócrates to resign as General Secretary of the party on election night. However, it was not the Socialists' worst result, which dated back to 1987 when they polled 30 points behind the Social Democrats. The Socialists were also beaten in José Sócrates district, Castelo Branco, that he dominated since 1995.

For the left-wing parties, the result was mixed. On one hand, the Left Bloc faced a huge setback, losing half of its MPs and regaining its 2005 numbers, where they obtained however, one more percentage point in a context of greater participation. As a whole, the Portuguese left-wing parties trails by ten points in support to the right-wing parties, the biggest lead since the absolute majority of the Social Democrat Aníbal Cavaco Silva in the 1990s.

Voter turnout was one of the lowest in Portuguese election history, with just 58% of the electorate casting their ballot on election day.

Background

The previous parliamentary elections were held in September 2009, and, as such, technically no elections were due until September or October 2013. However, the 2009 elections resulted in a hung parliament, as the Socialist Party (PS) continued to be the most voted force but lost the majority it previously had in the chamber. A minority government supported by the PS and headed by José Sócrates was formed, relying on negotiations with the opposition parties (namely the major opposition party PSD) to approve the most important and/or controversial bills, such as the State Budgets for 2010 and 2011.

In March 2011, when the government had tried to introduce a Stability and Growth Pact without consultation with the president and the parliament, the opposition parties called for a resolution vote.[8] The vote came over proposed spending cuts and tax hikes that had been demanded by the EU to offer a bailout over Portugal's debt levels amidst the European sovereign debt crisis. PM Jose Socrates had previously said that if the measure failed he would not be able to govern anymore.[8] All five opposition parties combined to vote down the measure. With all other parties voting against the government, the Socialist Party was unable to avoid defeat as it only had 97 MPs in the 230-seat parliament. Following the vote in parliament on the evening of 23 March, Socrates stepped down, reiterating that he could no longer govern the country:[7] "Today every opposition party rejected the measures proposed by the government to prevent that Portugal resort to external aid. The opposition removed from the government the conditions to govern. As a result I have tendered my resignation to the president." The main opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), tipped the scales against the government by voting against the package, despite having abstained when voting previous austerity measures, thus allowing them to pass.[9]

Following the vote, European markets read the move as making a possible 50–70 billion euro[10] bailout "inevitable" the day before a European Union summit concerning the debt crisis. German Chancellor Angela Merkel praised Socrates for his "far-reaching" austerity bill in parliament. Portuguese two-year bond yields also increased to the most since 1999 on speculation of possible further credit downgrades.[11][12][13]

President Aníbal Cavaco Silva then met with the various political parties to either resolve the crisis, or dissolve the parliament and call an early election, which, according to the Portuguese Constitution, can be held no sooner than 55 days after the announcement.[14][15] On 1 April, the president set 5 June as the date for an early election, deeming it the only way to create conditions for a new government.[16]

Following the call for an election, Socrates finally did make a request to the EU for a bailout on 6 April as the country's sovereign bond yield hit a record high; Portugal became the third EU state after Greece and Ireland, respectively, to request an EU bailout. Socrates said that "I tried everything but we came to a moment that not taking this decision would bring risks we can’t afford. The Social Democrats' Pedro Passos Coelho said that his party would support the aid request; the International Monetary Fund also added that it was ready to support assistance that Portugal requested.[17] Socrates said in a nationwide television address that his caretaker government had formally requested a bailout as it was "inevitable" and that "I tried everything, but in conscience we have reached a moment when not taking this decision would imply risks that the country should not take." His Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos also said that Portugal would need the European Union support to avoid defaulting on its debt. In response, the European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn said the action was "a responsible move" and that the specific amount of aid money would soon be determined.[18] European Union officials suggested that they hoped a deal would be finalised by the middle of May with an expected bailout of around 80 billion euros.[19]

Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[20]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude.[21] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties.[22]

Parties

The parties that partook in the election, and their leaders, were:

Pedro Passos Coelho, leader of the Social Democratic Party, was designated Prime Minister and formed a coalition government with the People's Party.

Concurrent issues

Popular anger arose during the electoral process leading to mass protests in multiple cities around the country.

External influence

File:Boas Festas (Licor Beirão).jpg
Licor Beirão's advertisement featuring Angela Merkel

EU bailout

In what was read as external interference during the campaign the EU's Olli Rehn said Portugal must make even stronger budget cuts than the measures that failed in parliament leading to the fall of the government. EU Finance Ministers said that about 80 billion euros could be available by mid-May should the austerity measures it demanded pass. Rehn said that the measures would be "a starting point. It is indeed essential in Portugal to reach a cross-party agreement ensuring that such a programme can be adopted [by] May."[23]

On 16 May, the EU endorsed a 78-billion euro joint package with the IMF.[24]

Finnish influence

Facing an election of his own, Finnish Finance Minister Jyrki Katainen said that Portugal's deficit-reduction steps must be even stronger than what was proposed in parliament prior to the election call. "The package must be really strict because otherwise it doesn't make any sense. The package must be harder and more comprehensive than the one the parliament voted against."[25] The surge in popularity of the True Finns prior to the election could threaten a bailout for Portugal.[26] Finland's support for the bailout was important because it would need unanimous support to pass.[27]

Following a dramatic showing, stronger than opinion polls predicted, by the True Finns, and amid government formation talks, a bailout for Portugal was thrown into doubt.[28] This was despite Katainen's pro-bailout National Coalition Party winning more seats than any other party (44 out of 200).

Economic outlook

On 5 April, Moody's cut Portugal's debt grade for the second in weeks citing its reason for doing so as "driven primarily by increased political, budgetary and economic uncertainty, which increase the risk that the government will be unable to achieve [its] ambitious deficit reduction targets." Its debt rating was decreased from A3 to Baa1, which was three grades above junk bond status.[29]

IMF bailout

On 20 May, the IMF approved a €26 billion bailout for Portugal as part of joint support mechanisms with the EU. Of the total €6.1 billion would be made available immediately.[24]

Campaign period

Party slogans

Party or alliance Original slogan English translation Refs
width="1" bgcolor="Template:Socialist Party (Portugal)/meta/color"| PS « Defender Portugal » "Defending Portugal" [30]
bgcolor="Template:Social Democratic Party (Portugal)/meta/color"| PSD « Está na hora de mudar » "It's time to change" [31]
bgcolor="Template:CDS – People's Party/meta/color"| CDS–PP « Este é o momento » "This is the moment" [32]
bgcolor="Template:Left Bloc/meta/color"| BE « Mudar de futuro » "Changing the future" [33]
bgcolor="Template:Unitary Democratic Coalition/meta/color"| CDU « Agora CDU » "CDU Now" [34]

Candidates' debates

2011 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present    A  Absent invitee  N  Non-inviteee 
PS
Sócrates 		PSD
Passos 		CDS–PP
Portas 		BE
Louçã 		CDU
Jerónimo 		Refs
style="background:Template:Socialist Party (Portugal)/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Social Democratic Party (Portugal)/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:CDS – People's Party/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Left Bloc/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Unitary Democratic Coalition/meta/color;"|
6 May RTP1 Vítor Gonçalves N N P N P [35]
9 May TVI Júdite de Sousa P N P N N [35]
10 May TVI Júdite de Sousa N P N N P [35]
11 May SIC Clara de Sousa P N N P N [35]
12 May RTP1 Vítor Gonçalves N N N P P [35]
13 May SIC Clara de Sousa N P P N N [35]
16 May SIC Clara de Sousa P N N N P [35]
17 May TVI Júdite de Sousa N P N P N [35]
19 May SIC Clara de Sousa N N P P N [35]
20 May RTP1 Vítor Gonçalves P P N N N [35]
Candidate viewed as "most convincing" in each debate
Date Organisers Polling firm/Link
PS PSD CDS–PP BE CDU Notes
style="background:Template:Socialist Party (Portugal)/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Social Democratic Party (Portugal)/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:CDS – People's Party/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Left Bloc/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Unitary Democratic Coalition/meta/color;"|
20 May RTP1 UCP–CESOP 33.9 46.4 — — — 12.7% Tie; 7.0% Undecided

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the Portuguese legislative election, 2011

Results

Anti-incumbency led to the defeat of the ruling party, even more than polls predicted. Pedro Passos Coelho of the Social Democratic Party is the Prime Minister-designate. Template:Portuguese parliamentary election, 2011

Vote share
PSD
 
 38.66%
PS
 
 28.05%
CDS-PP
 
 11.71%
CDU
 
 7.90%
BE
 
 5.17%
PCTP/MRPP
 
 1.12%
PAN
 
 1.04%
Others
 
 2.27%
Blank/Invalid
 
 4.08%
Parliamentary seats
PSD
 
 46.96%
PS
 
 32.17%
CDS-PP
 
 10.43%
CDU
 
 6.96%
BE
 
 3.48%

Distribution by constituency

Template:Portuguese parliamentary election, 2011 by constituency

Maps

Government formation

The XIX Constitutional Government of Portugal was formed with the legislative majority of the PSD and CDS-PP. On 6 June, President Aníbal Cavaco Silva called on Pedro Passos Coelho to form a government with "majority support in parliament" and asked for urgency in its formation[36] to "develop immediate measures to propose a governance solution which has a parliamentary majority of support available and consistent."

Given the election result and the impossibility of forming a majority government with parliamentary support from a single party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) led by Pedro Passos Coelho established an agreement for a majority government,[37] signed on 16 June 2011, with the People's Party, led by Paulo Portas, after a few days of trading.

The XIX Constitutional Government took office on 21 June 2011.[38]

2013 political crisis

On 3 July 2013, Secretary of State for Treasury Maria Luis Albuquerque replaced Vitor Gaspar as the Minister of Finance. As a result, CDS leader Paulo Portas quit citing that the move would offer "mere continuity" as part of the austerity measures for the deficit-cutting plans. In saying that he would not resign, Coelho added: "I will try to clarify and guarantee with the CDS party all the conditions for the stability of the government and to proceed with the strategy of overcoming the nation’s crisis." He added that "you know that this government has a tight-knit majority in the house to support it" and that the text of the resolution indicated that it was "fundamental to change the troika memorandum by renegotiation to finds a way to pay that does not contradict the country’s economic growth."[39]

In the fifth vote of confidence the government faced, as called by Os Verdes, the government was scheduled to win a vote despite being opposed by the Communists, Left Bloc and Socialists (if it failed the government would not be able to have another vote). Despite attempts to form a national unity government, Socialist party whip Carlos Zorrinho said that the move was not with the government but that all parties were available for a possible new government. The motion by Os Verdes was initiated on 14 July 2013 during a state of the nation debate. Coelho said that the vote was "very welcome" and would serve as a vote of confidence.[40]

See also

References

  1. ^ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  2. ^ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  3. ^ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  4. ^ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  5. ^ Assembleia da República - Deputados e Grupos Parlamentares
  6. ^ Taylor, Simon. "Portugal to hold election on 5 June". Europeanvoice.com. Retrieved 14 May 2011.
  7. ^ a b "Portugal PM quits after losing austerity vote", Al Jazeera, 23 March 2011. Retrieved 27 March 2011.
  8. ^ a b Fontevecchia, Agustino (23 March 2011). "Portuguese Parliament Rejects Austerity Plan, PM Socrates Resigns". Forbes. Retrieved 24 May 2011.
  9. ^ "Portugal PM quits after losing austerity vote - Europe". Al Jazeera English. 23 March 2011. Retrieved 14 May 2011.
  10. ^ Neuger, James; Lima, Joao; "Portugal Is Said to Require as Much as $99 Billion in Any European Bailout", Bloomberg, 25 March 2011. Retrieved 27 March 2011
  11. ^ Lima, Joao; Reis, Anabela; "Portugal Pushed Closer to EU Bailout After Socrates Budget Cuts Defeated", Bloomberg, 24 March 2011. Retrieved 27 March 2011.
  12. ^ Kansas, Dave; "Portugal’s Government Falls on Budget Dispute, Stocks Rise", The Wall Street Journal, 24 March 2011, accessed 24 March 2011.
  13. ^ Campos, Rodrigo; "GLOBAL MARKETS-World shares jump; euro up on Portugal optimism", Reuters, 24 March 2011. Accessed 24 March 2011.
  14. ^ Tremlett, Giles; "Portugal in crisis after prime minister resigns over austerity measures", The Guardian, 23 March 2011. Accessed 24 March 2011.
  15. ^ Lewis, Jeffrey T.; MacDonald, Alex; Kowsmann, Patricia; "Portuguese Leaders Scramble to Avoid Bailout", WSJ, 25 March 2011. Accessed 1 April 2011.
  16. ^ Kowsmann, Patricia; MacDonald, Alex; "Portugal Sets Vote as Crisis Deepens", WSJ, 1 April 2011. Accessed 1 April 2011.
  17. ^ Lima, Joao (7 April 2011). "Portugal Set to Start Talks on $107 Billion Bailout as Spain Threat Eases". Bloomberg. Retrieved 14 May 2011.
  18. ^ "Portugal asks EU for bailout - Europe". Al Jazeera English. 6 April 2011. Retrieved 14 May 2011.
  19. ^ "Finnish election results may spark euro jitters". MarketWatch. 17 April 2011. Retrieved 14 May 2011.[permanent dead link]
  20. ^ "Constitution of the Portuguese Republic" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 29 December 2019.
  21. ^ "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 21 October 2015.
  22. ^ Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
  23. ^ Neuger, James G. (9 April 2011). "Portugal Told to Make Deeper Deficit Cuts to Gain $116 Billion EU Bailout". Bloomberg. Retrieved 14 May 2011.
  24. ^ a b Rastello, Sandrine (20 May 2011). "IMF Board Approves $36.8 Billion Loan to Portugal". Bloomberg.
  25. ^ "Portugal to Face Strict EU Aid Terms Amid Political Storm". Archived from the original on 27 April 2011. Retrieved 14 April 2011.
  26. ^ Moen, Arild (14 April 2011). "'True Finns' Threaten EU Bailout Plans - The Source - WSJ". Blogs.wsj.com. Retrieved 14 May 2011.
  27. ^ "Finnish Nationalists Challenge EU Bailouts in Election that has Europe on Edge". The Washington Post.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link) [dead link]
  28. ^ Marlene Y. Satter (20 April 2011). "New Finland Government Threatens Portugal Bailout". Advisor One. Archived from the original on 7 July 2011. Retrieved 14 May 2011.
  29. ^ "Credit agency raises pressure on Portugal - Business". Al Jazeera English. 5 April 2011. Retrieved 14 May 2011.
  30. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2011 – PS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  31. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2011 – PSD". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  32. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2011 – CDS". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  33. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2011 – BE". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  34. ^ "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2011 – CDU". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  35. ^ a b c d e f g h i j "Calendário dos debates televisivos para as legislativas". Diário de Notícias (in Portuguese). 6 May 2011. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
  36. ^ "Cavaco dá luz verde para Passos formar Governo". Público. 6 June 2011. Archived from the original on 30 August 2011. Retrieved 20 August 2011.
  37. ^ "Acordo PSD/CDS inclui consulta mútua nas autárquicas de 2013". Expresso. 16 June 2011. Retrieved 20 August 2011.
  38. ^ "Governo de Passos Coelho já tomou posse" (in Portuguese). Público. 21 June 2011. Archived from the original on 29 August 2011. Retrieved 20 August 2011.
  39. ^ Reis, Anabela; Lima, Joao (3 July 2013). "Portugal's Coalition Splinters on Austerity Fatigue". Bloomberg.
  40. ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 25 June 2018. Retrieved 29 December 2019.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)

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