Next Portuguese legislative election

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Next Portuguese legislative election
Portugal
2011 ←
On or before 11 October 2015
→ Next

230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly
116 seats needed for a majority
  Passos Coelho EPP2011.jpg Antonio Jose Seguro.jpg
Leader Pedro Passos Coelho António José Seguro
Party Social Democratic Socialist
Leader since 26 March 2010[1] 23 July 2011[2]
Leader's seat Vila Real[3] Braga[4]
Last election 108 seats, 38.7% 74 seats, 28.1%

Incumbent Prime Minister

Pedro Passos Coelho
Social Democratic

The next Portuguese legislative election must take place by October 2015 at the latest. The election will be called following the dissolution of the Assembly of the Republic by the President. The President has the power to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic by his own will. Unlike other countries the President can refuse to dissolve the parliament at the request of the Prime Minister or the Assembly of the Republic and all the parties represented in Parliament. If the Prime Minister resigns, the President must nominate a new Prime Minister after listening to all the parties represented in Parliament and then the nominee must be confirmed by the Assembly of the Republic. The last time a new Prime Minister was nominated, after the last one resigned, without new elections, was Pedro Santana Lopes in 2004. The electorate will elect the members of the 13th Legislature, who will assemble shortly before the oath of the Prime Minister elect.[5]

Background[edit]

Date[edit]

According to the Portuguese Constitution, an election must be called between 14 September and 14 October of the year that the legislature ends. The election is called by the President of Portugal but is not called at the request of the Prime Minister, however the President must listen all the parties represented in Parliament and the election day must be announce at least 60 days before the election.[6] If an election is called in the middle of the legislature (Dissolution of Parliament) it must be held at least in 55 days. Election day is the same in all multi-seats constituencies, and should fall on a Sunday or national holiday. The next legislative election must, therefore, take place no later than 11 October 2015.[7]

Electoral system[edit]

The Parliament of the Portuguese Republic consists of a single chamber, the Assembly of the Republic, composed of 230 members directly elected by universal adult suffrage for a maximum term of four years. Assembly members represent the entire country, rather than the constituencies in which they were elected. Governments require majority support in the Assembly in order to remain in office.

Each one of Portugal's eighteen administrative districts, as well as each one of the country's two autonomous regions - the Azores and Madeira - is an electoral constituency. Portuguese voters residing outside the national territory are grouped into two electoral constituencies - Europe and the rest of the world - each one of which elects two Assembly members. The remaining 226 seats are allocated among the national territory constituencies in proportion to their number of registered electors.

Political parties and party coalitions may present lists of candidates. The lists are closed, so electors may not choose individual candidates in or alter the order of such lists. Electors cast a ballot for a single list. The seats in each constituency are apportioned according to the largest average method of proportional representation (PR), conceived by the Belgian mathematician Victor d'Hondt in 1899. Although there is no statutory threshold for participation in the allocation of Assembly seats, the application of the d'Hondt method introduces a de facto threshold at the constituency level.[8]

Parties[edit]

The parties that currently are represented in Parliament and their leaders, are:

Opinion Polling[edit]

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Graphical summary[edit]

15-day average trend line of poll results from June 2011 to the present day, with each line's colour corresponding to a political party.

Opinion polls[edit]

116 seats needed for a majority
Date(s) Conducted Polling institute Sample size Social Democratic Socialist People's
Party
Green-Communist Left Bloc Others / undecided Lead
12–14 April Universidade Católica 1,117 30.0% 36.0% 4.0% 12.0% 7.0% 11.0% 6.0%
9–12 April Aximage 613 31.5% 36.1% 6.1% 11.8% 6.4% 8.1% 4.6%
3–9 April Eurosondagem 1,011 25.2% 37.3% 8.1% 10.9% 7.5% 11.0% 12.1%
25–29 March Pitagórica 506 27.6% 39.0% 7.6% 10.3% 6.9% 8.6% 11.4%
6–12 March Eurosondagem 1,021 26.6% 36.6% 8.4% 11.1% 6.9% 10.4% 10.0%
8–11 March Aximage 587 33.3% 36.8% 5.7% 11.7% 5.4% 7.1% 3.5%
February 24–1 March Pitagórica 506 28.4% 37.2% 8.7% 10.5% 4.9% 10.2% 8.8%
9–12 February Aximage 604 31.4% 38.1% 5.4% 9.7% 5.7% 9.7% 6.7%
6–12 February Eurosondagem 1,025 25.6% 36.9% 7.7% 10.5% 7.0% 12.3% 11.3%
20–24 January Pitagórica 506 25.8% 37.8% 7.8% 11.4% 6.6% 10.6% 12.0%
9–15 January Eurosondagem 1,010 25.0% 37.5% 8.0% 10.4% 6.6% 12.5% 12.5%
7–10 January Aximage 601 30.6% 38.5% 5.8% 9.2% 6.3% 9.6% 7.9%
2014
10–15 December Pitagórica 503 25.7% 36.7% 9.0% 11.2% 6.7% 10.7% 11.0%
5–10 December Eurosondagem 1,035 26.5% 36.5% 8.5% 10.0% 6.5% 12.0% 10.0%
6–9 December Aximage 609 29.6% 36.4% 8.3% 9.7% 6.3% 9.7% 6.8%
19–21 November Marktest 800 25.6% 35.6% 1.5% 17.2% 6.5% 13.6% 10.0%
6–9 November Aximage 602 28.4% 36.9% 9.4% 10.3% 6.8% 8.2% 8.5%
30 October–5 November Eurosondagem 1,005 25.6% 37.3% 8.4% 11.1% 5.9% 11.7% 11.7%
22–25 October Marktest 803 26.2% 35.8% 2.3% 16.6% 5.5% 13.6% 9.6%
19–22 October Aximage 607 26.9% 30.2% 12.1% 12.4% 7.2% 11.2% 3.3%
14–19 October Pitagórica 506 23.7% 36.7% 8.6% 13.2% 6.6% 11.2% 13.0%
2–8 October Eurosondagem 1,010 26.9% 36.5% 8.6% 12.1% 5.9% 10.0% 9.6%
28–29 September INTERCAMPUS 1,000 27.0% 39.0% 4.0% 11.0% 7.0% 12.0% 12.0%
26–29 September Aximage 609 30.2% 34.5% 10.3% 10.4% 5.6% 9.0% 4.3%
17–19 September Marktest 801 28.5% 36.6% 2.5% 11.5% 7.3% 13.6% 8.1%
5–11 September Eurosondagem 1,038 26.5% 38.0% 6.5% 12.5% 6.5% 10.0% 11.5%
1–3 September Aximage 609 28.0% 35.3% 7.6% 11.8% 6.6% 10.7% 7.3%
25–31 July Eurosondagem 1,020 24.4% 37.4% 7.7% 12.5% 7.5% 10.5% 13.0%
27–29 July Universidade Católica 1,096 32.0% 35.0% 3.0% 11.0% 7.0% 12.0% 3.0%
24–28 July Pitagórica 507 24.1% 34.6% 8.1% 13.1% 8.7% 11.4% 10.5%
16–18 July Marktest 804 27.6% 34.2% 5.2% 10.8% 8.6% 13.6% 6.6%
8–11 July Aximage 603 28.0% 37.4% 5.8% 10.5% 6.7% 11.6% 9.4%
5–10 July Eurosondagem 1,007 25.0% 37.0% 8.0% 12.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
28 June–2 July Pitagórica 503 23.7% 33.9% 9.1% 13.2% 8.9% 11.2% 10.2%
4–7 June Aximage 599 23.2% 35.5% 9.4% 11.5% 8.4% 12.0% 12.3%
30 May–4 June Eurosondagem 1,028 24.8% 36.9% 7.7% 13.0% 8.0% 9.6% 12.1%
27–30 May Marktest 802 25.0% 34.6% 5.6% 13.1% 8.2% 13.5% 9.6%
23–28 May Pitagórica 506 25.4% 32.7% 9.5% 12.6% 9.4% 10.4% 7.3%
7–10 May Aximage 604 26.2% 35.5% 9.5% 9.4% 6.9% 12.5% 9.3%
2–8 May Eurosondagem 1,009 25.9% 36.0% 8.4% 12.1% 8.8% 8.8% 10.1%
17–20 April Pitagórica 503 26.9% 28.6% 12.0% 12.8% 8.7% 11.0% 1.7%
5–10 April Eurosondagem 1,025 26.5% 35.0% 8.5% 12.5% 8.5% 9.0% 8.5%
1–4 April Aximage 601 25.3% 32.6% 9.4% 12.0% 7.8% 12.9% 7.3%
19–24 March Pitagórica 503 25.7% 36.7% 10.6% 11.2% 7.9% 7.9% 11.0%
9–11 March Universidade Católica 949 28.0% 31.0% 5.0% 12.0% 8.0% 16.0% 3.0%
4–6 March Aximage 607 25.1% 31.6% 12.1% 12.2% 7.1% 11.9% 6.5%
28 February–5 March Eurosondagem 1,022 27.0% 35.2% 9.0% 12.1% 8.0% 8.7% 8.2%
20–24 February Pitagórica 503 26.4% 35.1% 10.7% 10.7% 8.6% 8.5% 8.7%
5–8 February Aximage 602 29.1% 32.0% 8.7% 11.5% 6.3% 12.4% 2.9%
30 January–5 February Eurosondagem 1,011 27.6% 34.1% 9.5% 11.6% 8.4% 8.8% 6.5%
22–25 January Pitagórica 504 28.6% 33.8% 10.2% 12.0% 8.0% 7.4% 5.2%
15–21 January Marktest 803 27.9% 32.6% 5.2% 12.4% 13.3% 8.6% 4.7%
6–9 January Aximage 603 26.3% 32.9% 10.3% 11.8% 7.4% 11.3% 6.6%
3–8 January Eurosondagem 1,010 26.9% 34.3% 9.6% 10.3% 8.8% 10.1% 7.4%
2013
13–18 December Pitagórica 511 29.0% 34.6% 11.4% 11.2% 8.4% 5.4% 5.6%
5–11 December Eurosondagem 1,034 26.4% 34.0% 10.0% 11.0% 9.0% 9.6% 7.6%
4–7 December Aximage 609 26.8% 32.9% 8.0% 11.0% 7.6% 13.7% 6.1%
9–16 November Pitagórica 505 26.4% 36.2% 9.8% 9.8% 7.5% 10.2% 9.8%
7–13 November Eurosondagem 1,033 26.9% 35.0% 10.1% 10.0% 9.5% 8.5% 8.1%
30 October–6 November Aximage 602 26.3% 32.1% 7.9% 9.6% 7.5% 16.6% 5.8%
8–13 October Pitagórica 503 29.5% 34.1% 8.3% 9.1% 7.2% 11.8% 4.6%
4–9 October Eurosondagem 1,021 30.0% 34.8% 10.0% 9.5% 7.7% 8.0% 4.8%
1–4 October Aximage 604 24.9% 33.7% 7.9% 9.5% 7.0% 17.0% 8.8%
17–20 September Marktest 805 20.2% 29.6% 5.2% 10.1% 8.6% 26.3% 9.4%
15–17 September Universidade Católica 1,132 24.0% 31.0% 7.0% 13.0% 11.0% 14.0% 7.0%
10–13 September Eurosondagem 1,037 33.0% 33.7% 10.3% 9.3% 7.0% 6.7% 0.7%
3–6 September Aximage 600 33.3% 35.4% 7.1% 7.7% 5.3% 11.2% 2.1%
9–14 August Eurosondagem 1,011 34.1% 33.0% 10.1% 8.8% 6.6% 7.4% 1.1%
17–20 July Marktest 803 26.7% 25.8% 4.4% 9.9% 6.9% 26.3% 0.9%
5–10 July Eurosondagem 1,036 34.6% 32.5% 10.1% 8.7% 6.9% 7.2% 2.1%
2–4 July Aximage 600 35.0% 30.8% 7.9% 7.8% 5.3% 13.2% 4.2%
19–22 June Marktest 800 31.3% 29.2% 2.8% 9.5% 5.4% 21.8% 2.1%
7–12 June Eurosondagem 1,022 34.3% 32.1% 11.6% 9.0% 6.9% 6.1% 2.2%
4–6 June Aximage 600 36.6% 28.2% 7.5% 10.1% 5.0% 12.6% 8.4%
26–28 May Universidade Católica 1,366 36.0% 33.0% 6.0% 9.0% 9.0% 7.0% 3.0%
22–24 May Marktest 807 30.4% 29.1% 3.5% 9.6% 8.5% 18.9% 1.3%
10–15 May Eurosondagem 1,011 34.8% 31.2% 11.6% 8.8% 6.0% 7.6% 3.6%
2–5 May Aximage 600 36.3% 28.9% 6.2% 9.7% 4.3% 14.6% 7.4%
17–21 April Marktest 810 31.4% 25.4% 3.6% 10.2% 7.8% 21.6% 6.0%
11–17 April Eurosondagem 1,036 35.3% 30.5% 10.7% 9.1% 6.4% 8.0% 4.8%
3–5 April Aximage 600 35.0% 27.8% 8.7% 10.1% 4.0% 14.4% 7.2%
19–23 March Marktest 802 36.5% 20.5% 5.2% 7.6% 6.3% 23.9% 16.0%
8–13 March Eurosondagem 1,021 36.0% 29.6% 12.0% 8.5% 6.9% 7.0% 6.4%
5–7 March Aximage 600 36.2% 31.4% 6.5% 9.2% 2.9% 13.8% 4.8%
14–22 February Marktest 800 30.2% 25.9% 3.9% 9.3% 6.0% 24.7% 4.3%
2–7 February Eurosondagem 1,010 35.0% 30.0% 11.7% 8.5% 6.5% 8.3% 5.0%
1–4 February Aximage 600 37.5% 30.3% 8.9% 8.8% 2.8% 11.7% 7.2%
17–22 January Marktest 800 37.6% 25.2% 4.0% 6.1% 7.7% 19.4% 12.4%
5–10 January Eurosondagem 1,064 36.4% 30.3% 12.1% 7.7% 6.4% 7.1% 6.1%
3–6 January Aximage 600 37.9% 30.0% 9.3% 10.7% 2.5% 9.6% 7.9%
2012
7–13 December Eurosondagem 1,033 36.0% 30.0% 12.5% 8.8% 6.4% 6.3% 6.0%
5–8 December Aximage 600 39.5% 27.7% 9.1% 11.3% 3.3% 9.1% 11.8%
15–19 November Marktest 804 45.4% 19.7% 5.0% 7.9% 4.1% 17.9% 25.7%
10–15 November Eurosondagem 1,025 36.3% 29.6% 12.1% 9.0% 6.1% 6.9% 6.7%
7–10 November Aximage 600 41.2% 26.8% 9.5% 10.6% 3.5% 8.4% 14.4%
20–25 October Eurosondagem 1,032 36.9% 29.2% 12.5% 8.8% 6.3% 6.3% 7.7%
18–22 October Marktest 809 41.6% 19.7% 5.3% 10.5% 4.2% 18.7% 21.9%
3–5 October Aximage 600 41.1% 26.0% 10.2% 7.6% 5.0% 10.1% 15.1%
22–27 September Eurosondagem 1,036 39.3% 28.2% 12.1% 8.2% 5.3% 6.9% 11.1%
20–23 September Marktest 804 47.1% 23.3% 6.8% 4.0% 2.7% 16.1% 23.8%
10–11 September Universidade Católica 1,457 43.0% 33.0% 6.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 10.0%
7–10 September Aximage 600 40.9% 25.1% 7.1% 9.0% 3.2% 14.7% 15.8%
26–30 August Eurosondagem 1,025 39.6% 26.9% 12.5% 8.4% 5.5% 7.1% 12.7%
14–19 July Eurosondagem 1,022 40.0% 26.3% 13.1% 8.0% 5.1% 7.5% 13.7%
5–8 July Aximage 600 42.0% 24.0% 10.3% 7.5% 5.9% 10.3% 18.0%
26–28 June Eurosondagem 1,010 40.8% 25.0% 13.6% 7.7% 4.8% 8.1% 15.8%
5 June 2011 Election Results 5,585,054 38.7%
108 seats
28.1%
74 seats
11.7%
24 seats
7.9%
16 seats
5.2%
8 seats
8.5%
0 seats
10.6%

References[edit]

External links[edit]

See also[edit]