Next Portuguese legislative election

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Next Portuguese legislative election
Portugal
2015 ←
On or before 13 October 2019

230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic
116 seats needed for a majority
  Pedro Passos Coelho 2011 (cropped).jpg Antonio Costa 2014 (cropped).jpg Catarina Martins 2013b (cropped).jpg
Leader Pedro Passos Coelho António Costa Catarina Martins
Party PSD PS BE
Leader since 26 March 2010 28 September 2014 30 November 2014
Leader's seat Lisboa Lisboa Porto
Last election 89 seats[a] 86 seats, 32.3% 19 seats, 10.2%
Seats needed Increase27 Increase30 Increase97

  AssunçãoCristas.png Jerónimo de Sousa 2007b (cropped).jpg Male portrait placeholder cropped.jpg
Leader Assunção Cristas Jerónimo de Sousa André Silva
Party CDS–PP CDU PAN
Leader since 13 March 2016 27 November 2004 26 October 2014
Leader's seat Leiria Lisboa Lisboa
Last election 18 seats[a] 17 seats, 8.3% 1 seats, 1.4%
Seats needed Increase98 Increase99 Increase115

Incumbent Prime Minister

António Costa
PS



The Next Portuguese legislative election will be held no later than October 2019. At stake will be all 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic.

Background[edit]

Politics of Portugal[edit]

Main article: Politics of Portugal

The President of Portugal has the power to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic by his own will. Unlike other countries the President can refuse to dissolve the parliament at the request of the Prime Minister or the Assembly of the Republic and all the parties represented in Parliament. If the Prime Minister resigns, the President must nominate a new Prime Minister after listening to all the parties represented in Parliament and then the government programme must be subject to discussion by the Assembly of the Republic, whose members of parliament may present a motion to reject the upcoming government.

Date[edit]

According to the Portuguese Constitution, an election must be called between 14 September and 14 October of the year that the legislature ends. The election is called by the President of Portugal but is not called at the request of the Prime Minister; however, the President must listen to all of the parties represented in Parliament and the election day must be announced at least 60 days before the election.[1] If an election is called during an ongoing legislature (dissolution of parliament) it must be held at least in 55 days. Election day is the same in all multi-seats constituencies, and should fall on a Sunday or national holiday. The next legislative election must, therefore, take place no later than 13 October 2019.[2]

Electoral system[edit]

The Parliament of the Portuguese Republic consists of a single chamber, the Assembly of the Republic, composed of 230 members directly elected by universal adult suffrage for a maximum term of four years. Assembly members represent the entire country, rather than the constituencies in which they were elected. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved.[3]

Each one of Portugal's eighteen administrative districts, as well as each one of the country's two autonomous regions - the Azores and Madeira - is an electoral constituency. Portuguese voters residing outside the national territory are grouped into two electoral constituencies - Europe and the rest of the world - each one of which elects two Assembly members. The remaining 226 seats are allocated among the national territory constituencies in proportion to their number of registered electors.

Political parties and party coalitions may present lists of candidates. The lists are closed, so electors may not choose individual candidates in or alter the order of such lists. Electors cast a ballot for a single list. The seats in each constituency are apportioned according to the largest average method of proportional representation (PR), conceived by the Belgian mathematician Victor d'Hondt in 1899. Although there is no statutory threshold for participation in the allocation of Assembly seats, the application of the d'Hondt method introduces a de facto threshold at the constituency level.[4]

Parties[edit]

The parties represented in Parliament are:

Political party Leader Political spectrum Political groups of the European Parliament
Social Democratic Party (PPD/PSD) Pedro Passos Coelho Centre-right European People's Party Group (EPP)
Socialist Party (PS) António Costa Centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D)
Left Bloc (BE) Catarina Martins Left-wing European United Left–Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL)
CDS – People's Party (CDS-PP) Assunção Cristas Centre-right to Right-wing European People's Party Group (EPP)
Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU)
Portuguese Communist Party (PCP)
Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV)
Jerónimo de Sousa Left-wing European United Left–Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL)
People-Animals-Nature (PAN) André Silva Centre-left No members of European Parliament

Opinion polling[edit]

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Graphical summary[edit]

Graph showing a 5 poll average trendline of Portuguese opinion polls from the election in 2015 to the election in 2019. Each line corresponds to a political party.

Vote[edit]

w/o PàF[edit]

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample
size
TO PSD PS BE CDS–PP CDU PAN O Lead
Aximage 15.07.16–17.07.16 606 65.0% 30.5 39.0 10.0 4.9 6.8 8.8 8.5
Eurosondagem 30.06.16–06.07.16 1,023 ? 32.5 35.0 9.5 6.5 8.0 1.6 6.9 2.5
Eurosondagem 01.06.16–07.06.16 1,025 ? 31.9 35.3 9.9 6.8 8.1 1.5 6.5 3.4
Aximage 30.05.16–01.06.16 603 65.5% 32.1 38.5 10.2 4.2 6.7 8.3 6.4
Eurosondagem 05.05.16–11.05.16 1,031 ? 31.7 34.8 9.6 7.0 8.4 1.7 6.8 3.1
Aximage 07.05.16–09.05.16 600 63.7% 32.3 38.5 9.7 4.0 6.6 8.9 6.2
Eurosondagem 07.04.16–13.04.16 1,026 ? 32.0 34.3 9.7 7.7 8.3 1.3 6.7 2.3
Aximage 02.04.16–03.04.16 601 63.9% 33.5 35.6 10.0 4.2 6.2 10.5 2.1
Eurosondagem 03.03.16–09.03.16 1,005 ? 32.0 35.0 9.2 8.0 7.8 1.4 6.6 3.0
Aximage 01.03.16–04.03.16 609 64.4% 36.1 33.8 11.3 2.2 6.6 10.0 2.3
Eurosondagem 04.02.16–10.02.16 1,010 ? 32.5 33.6 10.0 7.5 8.4 1.2 6.8 1.1
Aximage 30.01.16–31.01.16 606 67.0% 36.1 34.8 10.9 2.7 6.6 8.9 1.3
Aximage 16.01.16–20.01.16 1,301 65.4% 35.7 35.3 10.0 3.3 6.8 8.9 0.4
Eurosondagem 01.01.16–06.01.16 1,016 ? 32.1 33.3 10.1 7.5 8.5 1.5 7.0 1.2
Aximage 02.01.16–05.01.16 602 64.1% 36.2 35.5 9.8 3.6 5.6 9.3 0.7
Eurosondagem 03.12.15–09.12.15 1,015 ? 33.0 33.7 9.5 8.0 7.8 1.3 6.7 0.7
Aximage 28.11.15–02.12.15 605 64.8% 35.3 34.0 12.1 4.1 7.4 7.1 1.3

w/ PàF[edit]

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample
size
TO PàF PS BE CDU PAN O Lead
UCP–CESOP 05.12.15–06.12.15 1,183 64% 41 34 11 7 2 5 7
Aximage 31.10.15–04.11.15 603 63.3% 40.1 32.9 10.5 8.0 2.0 6.5 7.2
Eurosondagem 29.10.15–03.11.15 1,036 ? 40.8 32.5 10.0 8.0 1.5 7.2 8.3
Intercampus 14.10.15–17.10.15 807 ? 41.3 32.7 11.0 7.7 7.3 8.6
Legislative Election 04.10.15 N/A 55.8% 38.6 32.3 10.2 8.3 1.4 9.2 6.3

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b The Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the People's Party (CDS–PP) contested the 2015 election in a coalition called Portugal Ahead and won a combined 38.6% of the vote and elected 107 MP's to parliament.

References[edit]

External links[edit]