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2015 Murcian regional election

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Murcian regional election, 2015
← 2011 24 May 2015 2019 →
All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly of Murcia
23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered1,027,213 5.4%
Turnout652,977 (63.6%)
4.3 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Pedro Antonio Sánchez Rafael González Tovar Óscar Urralburu
Party PP PSOE Podemos
Leader since 6 March 2015 23 March 2012 14 February 2015
Last election 33 seats, 58.8% 11 seats, 23.9% Did not contest
Seats won 22 13 6
Seat change 11 2 6
Popular vote 239,011 153,231 84,577
Percentage 37.4% 23.9% 13.2%
Swing 21.4 pp 0.0 pp New party
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Miguel Sánchez José Antonio Pujante
Party C's GRM.IP
Leader since 17 March 2015 2006
Last election Did not contest 1 seat, 7.8%
Seats won 4 0
Seat change 4 1
Popular vote 80,459 30,761
Percentage 12.6% 4.8%
Swing New party 3.0 pp
Constituency results map for the Regional Assembly of Murcia
President before election

Alberto Garre
PP

Elected President

Pedro Antonio Sánchez
PP

The 2015 Murcian regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Regional Assembly of the Autonomous Community of the Region of Murcia. All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Overview

Electoral system

The Regional Assembly of Murcia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Murcia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Murcian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a President of the Region.[1] Voting for the Regional Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered in the Region of Murcia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Murcians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[2]

The 45 members of the Regional Assembly of Murcia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 5 percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Seats were allocated to constituencies, which were established by law as follows:

Each constituency was entitled to an initial minimum of one seat, with the remaining 40 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations.[3]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[3][4][5]

Election date

The term of the Regional Assembly of Murcia expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Regional Assembly were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, setting the election date for the Regional Assembly on Sunday, 24 May 2015.[1][3][4][5]

The President of the Region had the prerogative to dissolve the Regional Assembly of Murcia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Regional Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.[1]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Regional Assembly of Murcia.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Regional Assembly of Murcia election results →
Parties and coalitions Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
width="1" bgcolor="Template:People's Party of the Region of Murcia/meta/color"| People's Party (PP) 239,011 37.35 –21.44 22 –11
bgcolor="Template:Socialist Party of the Region of Murcia/meta/color"| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 153,231 23.95 +0.07 13 +2
bgcolor="Template:Podemos Region of Murcia/meta/color"| We Can (Podemos) 84,577 13.22 New 6 +6
bgcolor="Template:Citizens (Spanish political party)/meta/color"| Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) 80,459 12.57 New 4 +4
bgcolor="Template:Ganar la Región de Murcia/meta/color"| Winning the Region of Murcia: Plural Left (IU–V–RM–CLI–AS)1 30,761 4.81 –3.02 0 –1
bgcolor="Template:Union, Progress and Democracy/meta/color"| Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 10,422 1.63 –2.87 0 ±0
bgcolor="Template:Citizen Movement of Cartagena/meta/color"| Citizen Movement of Cartagena (MCC) 8,793 1.37 New 0 ±0
bgcolor="Template:Citizens of Democratic Centre/meta/color"| Citizens of Democratic Centre (CCD) 6,772 1.06 New 0 ±0
bgcolor="Template:Vox (Spanish political party)/meta/color"| Vox (Vox) 5,427 0.85 New 0 ±0
bgcolor="Template:Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals/meta/color"| Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 4,663 0.73 New 0 ±0
bgcolor="Template:Blank Seats/meta/color"| Blank Seats (EB) 2,002 0.31 New 0 ±0
bgcolor="Template:Zero Cuts/meta/color"| Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero) 1,422 0.22 New 0 ±0
bgcolor="Template:Citizens' Democratic Renewal Movement/meta/color"| Citizens' Democratic Renewal Movement (RED) 912 0.14 New 0 ±0
bgcolor="Template:Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain/meta/color"| Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) 763 0.12 New 0 ±0
bgcolor="Template:Centre and Democracy Forum/meta/color"| Centre and Democracy Forum (CyD) 532 0.08 –0.05 0 ±0
bgcolor="Template:Spain Forward/meta/color"| Spain Forward (LEM) 88 0.01 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 10,057 1.57 –0.59
Total 639,892 45 ±0
Valid votes 639,892 98.00 –0.37
Invalid votes 13,087 2.00 +0.37
Votes cast / turnout 652,977 63.57 –4.34
Abstentions 374,236 36.43 +4.34
Registered voters 1,027,213
Sources[6][7]
Popular vote
PP
 
 37.35%
PSOE
 
 23.95%
Podemos
 
 13.22%
C's
 
 12.57%
GRM.IP
 
 4.81%
UPyD
 
 1.63%
MCC
 
 1.37%
CCD
 
 1.06%
Others
 
 2.47%
Blank ballots
 
 1.57%
Seats
PP
 
 48.89%
PSOE
 
 28.89%
Podemos
 
 13.33%
C's
 
 8.89%

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "Encuestas y resultados - elecciones autonómicas y municipales del 24 de mayo de 2015". GAD3 (in Spanish). 28 May 2015.
  2. ^ "Rajoy cree un éxito ser el más votado aunque pierda plazas simbólicas". ABC (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  3. ^ "El PP mantendría sin apoyos Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, Murcia y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  4. ^ "Murcia: el PP, a dos escaños de la mayoría absoluta sigue alejado del PSOE". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  5. ^ "Región de Murcia. Encuesta mayo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  6. ^ "Preelectoral Elecciones Autonómicas 2015 Región de Murcia". CEMOP (in Spanish). 18 May 2015.
  7. ^ "Preelectoral Autonómicas 2015. Región de Murcia" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 18 May 2015.
  8. ^ "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2015. Región de Murcia (Estudio nº 3074. Marzo-Abril 2015)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 7 May 2015.
  9. ^ "Sánchez se lanza al ataque como "única alternativa a la derecha"". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 8 May 2015.
  10. ^ "El PP seguirá siendo el más votado en las CC AA pese a la caída en apoyos". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  11. ^ "Región de Murcia: El estreno del candidato del PP, al filo de la mayoría absoluta". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  12. ^ "Región de Murcia. Encuesta marzo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  13. ^ "El PP sigue cayendo y Ciudadanos casi supera a Podemos como tercera fuerza política" (PDF). La Verdad (in Spanish). 22 March 2015.
  14. ^ "El PP ganaría las elecciones autonómicas con el peor resultado desde 1991". CEMOP (in Spanish). 23 March 2015.
  15. ^ "El PP se desploma y pierde más de un tercio de sus escaños en la Asamblea" (PDF). La Verdad (in Spanish). 29 March 2015.
  16. ^ "El PP se desploma y pierde más de un tercio de sus escaños en la Asamblea". CEMOP (in Spanish). 31 March 2015.
  17. ^ "Ciudadanos asciende, Podemos pierde fuerza y PP y PSOE se estancan". CEMOP (in Spanish). 17 March 2015.
  18. ^ "Ciudadanos prosigue su crecimiento, mientras que el resto de fuerzas retroceden levemente" (PDF). La Verdad (in Spanish). 8 March 2015.
  19. ^ "Ciudadanos sigue sumando apoyos y el resto de fuerzas bajan o se estancan". CEMOP (in Spanish). 10 March 2015.
  20. ^ "El PP perdería hoy la mayoría absoluta y estaría obligado a pactar para gobernar" (PDF). La Verdad (in Spanish). 1 March 2015.
  21. ^ "Encuesta de estimación de voto del CEMOP para las Elecciones 24M de 2015". CEMOP (in Spanish). 5 March 2015.
  22. ^ "REGIÓN DE MURCIA, Febrero 2015. Sondeo CEMOP". Electograph (in Spanish). 1 March 2015.
  23. ^ "El reparto del poder territorial en España en 2015" (PDF). desarrollando-ideas.com (in Spanish). 31 October 2014.
  24. ^ "Un sondeo del PP sitúa a Podemos como segunda fuerza de la Región". La Opinión de Murcia (in Spanish). 19 October 2014.
  25. ^ "Barómetro de la Región de Murcia. Otoño 2014". CEMOP (in Spanish). 20 October 2014.
  26. ^ "Barómetro Regional Otoño 2014 (I Parte)" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 20 October 2014.
  27. ^ "Un estudio concluye que Ganemos sería la segunda fuerza política si aglutina en sus filas a IU-Verdes y Podemos". enCiezaDigital (in Spanish). 26 September 2014. Archived from the original on 26 February 2015. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  28. ^ "Proyección del resultado de las europeas en los parlamentos autonómicos". El País (in Spanish). 31 May 2014.
  29. ^ "Barómetro de la Región de Murcia. Primavera 2014". CEMOP (in Spanish). 9 June 2014.
  30. ^ "Barómetro Primavera 2014. Región de Murcia" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 9 June 2014.
  31. ^ "Los murcianos dan un aprobado a Garre y destacan su capacidad de liderazgo". La Verdad (in Spanish). 13 April 2014.
  32. ^ "El PP de Murcia perdería diputados pero mantendría la mayoría absoluta". Sigma Dos (in Spanish). 13 April 2014.
  33. ^ "Península Electoral: Noviembre 2013 (II)". Pasaporte Electoral (in Spanish). 29 November 2014.
  34. ^ "El PP ganaría de nuevo en 9 de 13 autonomías". La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013. Archived from the original on 3 March 2016. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  35. ^ "Encuesta autonómicas NC Report noviembre 2013" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013.
  36. ^ "El PP mantiene el poder autonómico". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  37. ^ "Repite la mayoría absoluta: Castilla-La Mancha, Baleares, Castilla y León, Región de Murcia y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  38. ^ "El PP ganaría en la mayoría de las autonomías (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 13 May 2013. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  39. ^ "Barómetro de la Región de Murcia. Invierno 2013". CEMOP (in Spanish). 4 March 2013.
  40. ^ "Barómetro Invierno 2013. Región de Murcia" (PDF). CEMOP (in Spanish). 4 March 2013.
Other
  1. ^ a b c Statute of Autonomy for the Region of Murcia of 1982. Official State Gazette (Organic Law 4) (in Spanish). 9 June 1982. Retrieved 22 February 2017.
  2. ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  3. ^ a b c Region of Murcia Electoral Law of 1987. Official Gazette of the Region of Murcia (Law 2) (in Spanish). 24 February 1987. Retrieved 22 February 2017.
  4. ^ a b General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985. Official State Gazette (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  5. ^ a b "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
  6. ^ "Regional Elections. Main Results. 2015". econet.carm.es (in Spanish). Regional Statistics Center of Murcia. Retrieved 30 September 2017.
  7. ^ "Regional Assembly of Murcia elections since 1983". historiaelectoral.com (in Spanish). Electoral History. Retrieved 30 September 2017.
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