2021 Senedd election

National Assembly for Wales election, 2021

6 May 2021
All 60 seats to the National Assembly for Wales 31 seats needed for a majority
First party Second party Third party   Leader Carwyn Jones Leanne Wood Andrew R. T. Davies Party Labour Plaid Cymru Conservative Leader since 10 December 2009 16 March 2012 14 July 2011 Leader's seat Bridgend Rhondda South Wales Central Last election 29 seats 12 seats 11 seats   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Neil Hamilton Mark Williams Party UKIP Liberal Democrats Leader since September 2016 8 May 2016 Leader's seat Mid & West Wales N/A Last election 7 seats 1 seat
First Minister before election Carwyn Jones Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition Elected First Minister TBD

The next National Assembly for Wales election is due to be held on Thursday 6 May 2021 to elect 60 members to the Welsh Assembly. It would be the sixth general election since the assembly was established in 1999.

Five parties had AMs in the fifth Assembly: Welsh Labour led by First Minister Carwyn Jones, Plaid Cymru led by Leanne Wood, Welsh Conservatives led by Andrew R. T. Davies, UKIP Wales led by Neil Hamilton, and the Welsh Liberal Democrats, led by Mark Williams.

Electoral method

In general elections for the National Assembly for Wales, each voter has two votes in a mixed member system. The first vote is for a candidate to become the Assembly Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. The second vote is for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the d'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.

In accordance to the Wales Act 2014, a candidate is allowed to stand in both a constituency, as well as a regional list. But, dual mandates with the House of Commons is illegal, meaning an Assembly Member can not also be an MP.

Opinion polls

Constituency Vote (FPTP)

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Cons	Plaid	UKIP	Lib Dem	Others	Lead
18-21 September 2016	Welsh Political Barometer	1,001	34%	24%	20%	13%	6%	3%	10%
30 June - 4 July 2016	Welsh Political Barometer	1,010	32%	19%	23%	16%	7%	3%	9%
30 May - 2 June 2016	Welsh Political Barometer	1,017	34%	18%	23%	15%	7%	3%	11%
5 May 2016	National Assembly for Wales election, 2016 (constituency)	1,013,383	34.7%	21.1%	20.5%	12.5%	7.7%	2.8%	13.6%

Regional Vote (AMS)

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Plaid	Cons	UKIP	Lib Dem	Green	Others	Lead
18-21 September 2016	Welsh Political Barometer	1,001	29%	21%	22%	13%	6%	3%	7%	7%
30 June - 4 July 2016	Welsh Political Barometer	1,010	29%	24%	18%	15%	6%	4%	6%	5%
30 May - 2 June 2016	Welsh Political Barometer	1,017	32%	21%	18%	14%	6%	4%	4%	11%
5 May 2016	National Assembly for Wales election, 2016 (regional)	1,005,541	31.5%	20.8%	18.8%	13.0%	6.5%	3.0%	5.6%	10.7%