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Hurricane Florence

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This article is about the Atlantic hurricane of 2018. For other storms of the same name, see Hurricane Florence (disambiguation).
Tropical Storm Florence
Current storm status
Tropical storm (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:8:00 a.m. EDT (12:00 UTC) September 15
Location:33°36′N 79°30′W / 33.6°N 79.5°W / 33.6; -79.5 (Tropical Storm Florence) ± 10 nm
About 35 mi (55 km) W of Myrtle Beach, SC
About 45 mi (70 km) SSE of Florence, SC
Sustained winds:45 knots (50 mph; 80 km/h) (1-min mean)
Pressure:989 mbar (hPa; 29.20 inHg)
Movement:W 260° at 1 knot (2 mph; 4 km/h)
See more detailed information.

Hurricane Florence is currently a weakening tropical cyclone that made landfall in North Carolina. The sixth named storm, third hurricane and the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Florence originated from a strong tropical wave that emerged off the west coast of Africa on August 30, 2018. Steady organization resulted in the formation of a tropical depression on the next day near Cape Verde. Progressing along a steady west-northwest trajectory, the system acquired tropical storm strength on September 1, and fluctuated in strength for several days over open ocean. An unexpected bout of rapid intensification ensued on September 4–5, culminating with Florence becoming a Category 4 major hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale with estimated maximum sustained winds of 130 mph (215 km/h). Thereafter, environmental conditions tore the storm apart, and Florence degraded to a tropical storm by September 7. Shifting steering currents led to a westward turn into a more suitable environment; the system regained hurricane strength on September 9 and major hurricane status by the following day. At 16:00 UTC on September 10, Florence again became a Category 4 hurricane, later reaching a new peak intensity with winds of 140 mph (220 km/h) and a central pressure of 939 mbar (27.7 inHg). Afterwards, Florence weakened slightly as it underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, but began to restrengthen late on September 11. However, early on September 13, the storm weakened to a Category 2 hurricane, due to exposure to moderate wind shear, but the storm's wind field expanded during this time. On the evening of September 13 it was downgraded to Category 1. Early the next day on September 14, Florence made landfall just south of Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina.

Early in the storm's history, the system brought squall conditions to the Cape Verde islands, resulting in some landslides and flooding; however, overall impacts were negligible. With the threat of a major impact in the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States becoming evident by September 7, the governors of North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, Georgia and Maryland and the mayor of Washington, D.C. declared a state of emergency. On September 10 and September 11, the states of North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia all issued mandatory evacuation orders for some of their coastal communities, as it is expected that emergency management personnel would be unable to reach people in those areas once the storm arrived.

Meteorological history

Map plotting the storm's track and intensity, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale
Map key
Saffir–Simpson scale
  Tropical depression (≤38 mph, ≤62 km/h)
  Tropical storm (39–73 mph, 63–118 km/h)
  Category 1 (74–95 mph, 119–153 km/h)
  Category 2 (96–110 mph, 154–177 km/h)
  Category 3 (111–129 mph, 178–208 km/h)
  Category 4 (130–156 mph, 209–251 km/h)
  Category 5 (≥157 mph, ≥252 km/h)
  Unknown
Storm type
triangle Extratropical cyclone, remnant low, tropical disturbance, or monsoon depression

On August 28, 2018, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began monitoring a tropical wave—an elongated trough of low air pressure—over Western Africa for possible tropical cyclogenesis within the subsequent five days, as it progressed west.[1] Development into a tropical cyclone became increasingly likely on the following day,[2] and a more defined low coalesced along the coast of Senegal on August 30.[3] Favorable environmental conditions, including ample moisture and low wind shear,[4] enabled further organization and development of broad shower and thunderstorm activity. Lacking a well-defined center but posing an immediate threat to Cape Verde, the NHC began issuing advisories on the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Six later that day. Easterly trade winds propelled the disturbance along a west to west-northwest trajectory.[5] Through much of the day and into August 31, convection remained confined to the southwest of the disturbance within a monsoon trough and precluded its classification as a tropical cyclone.[6] Toward the end of August 31, convective organization became sufficient for the NHC to mark the formation of Tropical Depression Six, as the system passed south of Santiago in Cape Verde. Surface pressures on the island fell to 1005 mbar (hPa; 29.68 inHg) at 18:00.[7]

By September 1, the primary steering factor shifted to a strong subtropical ridge anchored well to the north. Moderate wind shear temporarily stunted development and displaced convection to the eastern side of the depression.[8] Pronounced banding features surrounded the circulation and the depression intensified to a tropical storm; the NHC accordingly assigned the system the name Florence.[9] Steady development marked the system's intensification. Satellite intensity estimates indicated Florence achieved maximum sustained winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) by 09:00 UTC on September 2.[10] Thereafter, shear and entrainment of dry air displaced convection from the surface low, leaving it exposed.[11] Considerable uncertainty in the forecast for Florence arose, as weather models began to depict various different solutions.[12] Fluctuations in organization and intensity continued through September 3.[13][14]

Development of a small central dense overcast and a mid-level eye feature signified that Florence achieved hurricane strength early on September 4, roughly 1,240 miles (2,000 km) west-northwest of the Cape Verde islands.[15][16] Unexpectedly the system rapidly organized within a small area of low wind shear in an otherwise adverse upper-level environment. Florence's small size enabled it take advantage of this localized area.[17] The hurricane's core structure, eye, and outer banding improved markedly, catching forecasters off-guard and intensifying beyond model outputs.[18] In stark contrast to model guidance, Florence continued to intensify and attained major hurricane status at 12:35 UTC on September 5.[19][20] Sustained winds rose to 130 mph (215 km/h) and its pressure fell to 953 mbar (hPa; 28.14 inHg)—this ranked it as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale. Situated at 22°42′N 46°36′W / 22.7°N 46.6°W / 22.7; -46.6 (Hurricane Florence Category 4),[21] Florence became the northernmost Category 4 hurricane east of 50°W.[22]

Time-lapse video of the NOAA Hurricane Hunters flying through the eye of Hurricane Florence on September 11, 2018
Florence on the evening of September 11, 2018

The hurricane's unforeseen intensification caused it to track farther north, out of the localized low shear.[23] Persistent shear finally took its toll on Florence on September 6 through September 7, causing convection to become asymmetrical and tilting the storm's core southwest to northeast.[24][25] Rapid degradation of Florence's structure occurred by the early hours of September 7. Its low-level circulation became exposed as its convection became displaced to the northeast, and the previously well-defined eye dissipated. Scatterometer data revealed the system weakened to tropical storm intensity by 03:00 UTC. Meteorologist Robbie Berg described the intensity forecasts for Florence as a "self-defeating prophecy" owing to the "nuances of the environmental shear".[23][26] A building mid-level ridge halted Florence's northward movement, leading to a westward turn.[23][26] Weather models became increasingly consistent on the storm's future track, leading to greater confidence in a major impact to the Southeastern United States.[27] This trajectory proved climatologically unusual, with United States hurricane impacts primarily originating farther south and west of Florence's position on that day.[28]

Environmental conditions became increasingly conducive to reorganization on September 8 as NOAA Hurricane Hunters began reconnaissance of the cyclone.[29] Convective banding blossomed around the storm and a formative eye appeared on satellite imagery.[30] The storm's central dense overcast became more defined, and a complete eyewall developed within its core. Florence reattained hurricane-status by 15:00 UTC on September 9, with the Hurricane Hunters observing 76 mph (122 km/h) sustained winds at the surface.[31] Fueled by sea surface temperatures of 84 to 85 °F (29 to 29.5 °C), Florence rapidly intensified overnight. Convective bursts with frequent lightning surrounded the eyewall,[32] giving rise to a well-defined 12 mi (19 km) wide eye. Expanding outflow ventilated the cyclone, enabling continued growth.[33] The system rapidly re-achieved Category 4 intensity by 16:00 UTC on September 10, with reconnaissance aircraft recording surface winds near 130 mph (215 km/h) and a central pressure of 946 mbar (hPa; 27.93 inHg).[34] Hurricane Florence achieved its peak intensity late on September 10 with sustained winds of 140 mph (220 km/h) and a pressure of 939 mbar (hPa; 27.73 inHg).[35] The extent of hurricane-force winds doubled in size and well-defined mesovortices rotated along the inner eyewall.[36] Slight weakening ensued thereafter as an eyewall replacement cycle started; convection surrounding the eyewall became ragged and the eye itself filled.[37][38] This processes completed the following day, with the newly formed eye spanning 35 mi (55 km) across. Extensive outflow became established over the cyclone, extending northwest and east, providing ample ventilation and deformation which enabled Florence to continue expanding.[39] The future track of the hurricane became increasingly complex as it approached the Carolinas. A strengthening trough moving inland over the Pacific Northwest amplified ridging over the Northeastern United States and western Atlantic Ocean, steering Florence to the west-northwest. A collapse of steering currents was anticipated around the time of landfall on September 14, which would result in the hurricane meandering near the coast or just inland for a prolonged period of time.[40]

Fluctuations in the organization of Florence continued through the remainder of September 11 into September 12.[41] Increasing wind shear caused the inner structure to degrade, and the system degraded to Category 3 status by 18:00 UTC.[42] Continued weakening occurred and Florence later fell below major hurricane intensity later that night. The weakening pace slowed as the satellite presentation improved somewhat on September 13, with an eye attempting to emerge again. The hurricane's motion slowed significantly and it began to turn northwest towards the Carolina border. At 11:15 UTC (7:15 a.m. EDT) on September 14, Florence made landfall just south of Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina as a Category 1 hurricane, with sustained winds of 90 mph (145 km/h) and a central pressure of 958 mbar (28.3 inHg).[43] Hurricane-force winds had extended outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds were out to 195 miles (315 km).[43]

Current storm information

As of 8:00 a.m. EDT (12:00 UTC) September 15, Tropical Storm Florence is located within 10 nautical miles of 33°36′N 79°30′W / 33.6°N 79.5°W / 33.6; -79.5 (Florence), about 35 miles (55 km) west of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina and about 45 miles (70 km) south-southeast of Florence, South Carolina. Maximum sustained winds are 45 knots (50 mph; 80 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 989 mbar (hPa; 29.20 inHg), and the system is moving west, compass 260° at 1 knot (2 mph, 4 km/h). Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 nautical miles (175 mi; 280 km) from the center of Florence.

For latest official information, see

Watches and warnings

Template:HurricaneWarningsTable For latest official information, see:

Preparations

Cape Verde and Bermuda

Upon the designation of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six on August 30, the government of Cape Verde issued tropical storm warnings for the islands of Brava, Fogo, and Santiago.[44] Domestic airlines cancelled 20 flights on August 31 and September 1; maritime travel was also suspended for this period.[45] Mariners were advised to remain cautious of large swells around the islands, potentially reaching 9.8 to 16.4 ft (3 to 5 m).[46] Under the threat of damaging waves, the Autoridade Nacional de Proteção Civil evacuated 125 people, primarily elderly, from Furna and Rincão.[47] Eleven military personnel were deployed to Rincão to assist in evacuations and preparations.[48] Tropical storm warnings were discontinued on September 1, as the system progressed westward and no longer posed a threat to the archipelago.[49]

In anticipation of adverse conditions, Norwegian Cruise Lines and Oceania Cruises adjusted itineraries for Norwegian Escape, Norwegian Dawn, and Sirena to avoid crossing the hurricane's path and not dock in Bermuda.[50]

United States

President Donald Trump holding a briefing in the Oval Office in advance of Hurricane Florence

As forecast models indicated an increasing threat to the Southeastern United States, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper declared a state of emergency on September 7. Transportation rules for farmers were waived to enable faster harvesting.[51] President Donald Trump declared an emergency in North Carolina, granting the state access to federal funds.[52] An overnight curfew was established for Lumberton for the duration of the hurricane.[53]

South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster followed suit on the next day.[54] The South Carolina Emergency Management Division (SCEMD) and Harvest Hope Food Bank began mobilizing resources for potential recovery efforts.[55] The SCEMD raised operation conditions to level 3 on September 9, and began preparations for the "possibility of a large-scale disaster", with forecasts showing Florence striking the state as a major hurricane.[56] Local officials established overnight curfews for the cities of Aynor, Conway, Dillon, Myrtle Beach and Surfside Beach to limit the number of people on the roads and enable effective emergency responses. The entirety of Horry and Marion counties also fell under curfews.[53][57][58]

On September 8, Virginia Governor Ralph Northam also declared a state of emergency.[59] On September 10, Maryland Governor Larry Hogan declared a state of emergency for the entire state, with the potential of "historic, catastrophic and life-threatening flooding in Maryland".[60] On September 11, Washington, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser declared a state of emergency for the entire District of Columbia due to the "imminent threats on the people of D.C., including threats to health, safety and welfare" caused by Florence.[61][62] On September 12, Georgia Governor Nathan Deal issued a state of emergency for the entire state.[63]

Coastal flood advisories were issued for the Chesapeake Bay coastline, the Potomac coastline, and parts of the Delmarva, as higher than normal tides were anticipated to affect areas such as Norfolk, Virginia, Washington D.C, and Baltimore, Maryland, especially low-lying communities and cities near the coastline.

Evacuation and closures

'U.S. Navy Ships Sortie Out of Naval Station Norfolk Prior to Hurricane Florence' Video by the U.S. Navy
'Red Cross Shelter Serves Florence Evacuees' - News report published by Voice of America on September 14, 2018

"They haven't seen anything like what's coming at us in 25, 30 years, maybe ever. It's tremendously big and tremendously wet. Tremendous amounts of water."

President Donald Trump, September 11, 2018, White House press briefing

Mandatory evacuation orders for residents and tourists on Hatteras Island in Dare County began on September 10, with orders expanding to the rest of the county the following day.[64] Evacuations along the rest of the Outer Banks and in Brunswick County went in effect on September 11.[65] On September 10, Governor Henry McMaster ordered evacuations for the entire coastline of South Carolina,[66] constituting roughly 1 million people.[67] On September 10, Virginia Governor Ralph Northam ordered mandatory evacuations for low-lying coastal areas in the Hampton Roads and Eastern Shore regions effective September 11, constituting 245,000 people.[68] The US Navy has moved 30 ships stationed off the coast of Virginia farther out to sea, to protect the ships and the coast line.[69]

In North Carolina, mandatory evacuations were issued on September 11 for Brunswick County, Carteret County, Craven County, Onslow County, Pamlico County, Tyrrell County, North Topsail Beach, Emerald Isle, Ocracoke Island, Atlantic Beach, Indian Beach, Kure Beach, Pine Knoll Shores, and Wrightsville Beach. A mandatory evacuation for visitors and tourists was issued on September 11 for Holden Beach, Oak Island, and Currituck. Voluntary evacuations were issued for Bertie County and Surf City.[70] A voluntary evacuation was also issued for New Hanover County on September 10, including Wilmington, NC.[71]

The South Carolina National Guard briefing on Hurricane Florence for emergency response plans

The University of North Carolina at Wilmington issued a mandatory evacuation effective on September 10.[72] All students were evacuated by noon on September 11. The university collaborated with the University of North Carolina at Asheville to house students who had no options for safe shelter.[73] College football games scheduled at North Carolina State University[74], East Carolina University, Wake Forest University, Appalachian State University, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the University of South Carolina were cancelled as a result of the storm.[75][76][77] Several universities in North Carolina have announced closings in preparation for the hurricane.[78][79][80]

In South Carolina, in 26 eastern counties, public schools were closed until further notice beginning on September 10. State offices in these counties were also ordered closed, while county-level officials could decide when to close their offices.[81]

Atlanta Motor Speedway, Bristol Motor Speedway, and Charlotte Motor Speedway opened their campgrounds to evacuees of Hurricane Florence free of charge.[82][83] In West Virginia, Governor Jim Justice ordered for construction along northbound Interstate 77 (West Virginia Turnpike) between the Virginia border in Mercer County and Charleston to be suspended in order to improve traffic flow for evacuees. In addition, West Virginia state parks will offer reduced rates for rooms, cabins, and campsites until September 18 in order to provide assistance to evacuees.[84]

Impacts

Cape Verde and Bermuda

Disruptive rainfall and strong winds affected Brava, Fogo, and Santiago in Cape Verde, causing some landslides and localized flooding. Impacts from the storm were otherwise minimal, with no material damage reported.[45]

Large swells and rip currents from the storm reached Bermuda on September 7.[85]

United States

Deaths by U.S. state
State Deaths
Florida 2
North Carolina 8
South Carolina 2

Pre-landfall

Large swells on the Maryland coast on September 9

Large swells ahead of the hurricane reached Assateague State Park, Maryland, by September 9, prompting the Maryland Department of Natural Resources to close beach access indefinitely.[86] In Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, 27 people required lifeguard rescue between September 8 and 9.[87] Rip currents and rough seas in New Smyrna Beach, Florida, resulted in 13 rescues; one victim died at the hospital and two others sustained impact injuries.[88] One man drowned on September 11 at Playalinda Beach while trying to rescue a 10-year-old boy caught in a rip current.[89] One child drowned in Green Swamp near Sumter, South Carolina, after water released from the Second Mill Pond flowed into the river.[90]

On September 11, 2018, the price of oil in the U.S. rose by almost $2 a barrel, to over $70 per barrel. An American Automobile Association spokesperson said, "Motorists can expect spikes in pump prices to be brief, but possibly dramatic."[91]

On September 13, New Bern, North Carolina, was inundated with storm surge around 6 feet (1.8 m). Water levels rose in the west side of the Pamlico Sound. A gauge in Oriental, North Carolina, recorded water height of about 5.5 feet (1.7 m) above normal on the Neuse River.[92] Employees at ABC affiliate WCTI-TV (which serves the surrounding market that includes Greenville and Jacksonville) were forced to evacuate its New Bern studio facility that evening due to the rising waters; WCTI station staff were asked to relocate to the studios of sister station WPDE in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina to continue coverage of the storm, with WCTI switching to a simulcast of WPDE's live coverage of the storm until its staff relocated to the WPDE facility.[93][94][95] Reports indicated that around 150 people were in need of rescue in New Bern because of the heavy flooding.[96]

Landfall

Hurricane Florence Makes Landfall in North Carolina - video from Voice of America

Florence made landfall in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina on September 14, and by mid-morning rescuers had already evacuated more than 200 people from floodwaters, with about 150 more awaiting rescue. The storm had reportedly cut power to more than 500,000 customers in North and South Carolina by the time of landfall, and caused the roof of a hotel in Jacksonville, North Carolina to collapse that morning.[97] In Wilmington, North Carolina, a mother and her baby were killed when a tree landed on their house. In Hampstead, North Carolina, a woman died of a heart attack after first responders were unable to reach her due to tree-blocked roads. Another person was killed in Lenoir County, North Carolina while plugging in a generator. In Kinston, North Carolina, a fifth fatality occurred when a man was "blown down by the wind".[98] Two more deaths happened on Harkers Island, North Carolina.[99]

See also

References

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