2012 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota
| |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
County results Cramer: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Gulleson: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
|
Elections in North Dakota |
---|
The 2012 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, to elect the U.S. representative from the state's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including a quadrennial presidential election and an election to the U.S. Senate. A primary election was held on June 12, 2012;[1] a candidate must receive at least 300 votes to appear on the general election ballot in November.[2]
Rick Berg, a member of the Republican Party who was first elected to represent the at-large district in 2010, had announced that he would not seek re-election and would instead run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Kent Conrad.[3] Republican Kevin Cramer won the open House seat.
Republican primary
[edit]The North Dakota Republican Party endorsed Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk at their state convention, though general election ballot access is determined by a statewide primary election held on June 12, 2012. In contrast to state political tradition, fellow Public Service Commissioner Kevin Cramer did not seek the party endorsement, instead attempting to defeat Kalk on the June primary ballot.
Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Kevin Cramer, Public Service Commissioner[4]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Brian Kalk, Public Service Commissioner and state party endorsed candidate[5]
Withdrew
[edit]- Shane Goettle, U.S. Senator John Hoeven's state director[6]
- Bette Grande, state representative[7]
- DuWayne Hendrickson, perennial candidate[8]
- Kim Koppelman, state representative[9]
Declined
[edit]- Rick Berg, incumbent U.S. Representative[3]
- Al Carlson, state House Majority Leader[10][11]
- Tony Clark, Public Service Commissioner[12]
- Cory Fong, North Dakota State Tax Commissioner[13]
- Tony Grindberg, state senator[14]
- Robert Harms, Tea Party activist and former treasurer of the North Dakota Republican Party[11]
- Kelly Schmidt, North Dakota State Treasurer[15]
Debate
[edit]The North Dakota Republican Party held a candidates' debate on December 14 at the campus of Valley City State University. All five GOP candidates declared at the time—Cramer, Goettle, Grande, Kalk, and Koppelman—participated.[16]
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kevin Cramer |
Brian Kalk |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mason Dixon[17] | June 4–6, 2012 | 625 | ± 4% | 60% | 21% | 19% |
Forum Communications Co.[18] | May 3–8, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.3% | 38% | 25% | 27% |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Kevin Cramer | 54,405 | 54.4 | |
Republican | Brian Kalk | 45,415 | 45.5 | |
n/a | Write-ins | 113 | 0.1 | |
Total votes | 99,933 | 100.0 |
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Pam Gulleson, former state representative[20]
Declined
[edit]Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic–NPL | Pam Gulleson | 51,750 | 99.9 | |
Democratic–NPL | Write-in | 74 | 0.1 | |
Total votes | 51,824 | 100.0 |
Libertarian nomination
[edit]The Libertarian Party of North Dakota has selected small business owner Eric Olson as their nominee at a state meeting.[22]
General election
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Organizations
- National Republican Congressional Committee "Young Guns" Program[23]
Organizations
- Blue Dog Coalition[24]
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Red to Blue" Program[25]
Polling
[edit]Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kevin Cramer (R) |
Pam Gulleson (D) |
Eric Olson (L) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mason Dixon[26] | October 26–28, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 40% | 2% | 8% |
Forum/Essman[27] | October 12–15, 2012 | 500 | ± 4% | 52% | 32% | 1% | 15% |
Mason-Dixon[28] | October 3–5, 2012 | 625 | ± 4% | 49% | 37% | 2% | 12% |
Mason Dixon[29] | June 4–6, 2012 | 625 | ± 4% | 49% | 35% | 4% | 12% |
Forum Communications Co.[18] | May 3–8, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.3% | 61% | 23% | – | 15% |
Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[30] | Likely R | November 5, 2012 |
Rothenberg[31] | Safe R | November 2, 2012 |
Roll Call[32] | Likely R | November 4, 2012 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[33] | Likely R | November 5, 2012 |
NY Times[34] | Safe R | November 4, 2012 |
RCP[35] | Likely R | November 4, 2012 |
The Hill[36] | Likely R | November 4, 2012 |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Kevin Cramer | 173,585 | 54.89% | +0.15% | |
Democratic–NPL | Pam Gulleson | 131,870 | 41.70% | −3.23% | |
Libertarian | Eric Olson | 10,261 | 3.24% | N/A | |
n/a | Write-ins | 508 | 0.16% | −0.17% | |
Total votes | 316,224 | 100.0% | N/A | ||
Republican hold |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]- Barnes (largest city: Valley City)
- Grand Forks (largest city: Grand Forks)
- Name (Largest city: Stanley)
- Ramsey (Largest city: Devils Lake)
- Towner (Largest city: Cando)
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "North Dakota election calendar" (PDF). Secretary of State. July 2011. Retrieved August 17, 2011.
- ^ "North Dakota Century Code". Secretary of State. August 2011. Retrieved December 30, 2011.
- ^ a b Toeplitz, Shira (May 16, 2011). "House Freshman Berg Will Run for Senate in North Dakota". Roll Call. Retrieved May 20, 2011.
- ^ Wetzel, Dale (November 3, 2011). "ND's Cramer uses Web video to open US House campaign; running for Congress for fourth time". The Republic. Retrieved November 4, 2011.[permanent dead link]
- ^ Trygstad, Kyle (May 20, 2011). "Kalk to Run for House Instead of Senate in North Dakota". Roll Call. Archived from the original on May 23, 2011. Retrieved May 20, 2011.
- ^ Daum, Kristen M (November 29, 2011). "Goettle declares as 4th GOP contender in 2012 U.S. House race". Flickertales from The Hill. Archived from the original on July 16, 2012. Retrieved November 29, 2011.
- ^ Daum, Kristen M (October 3, 2011). "Fargo legislator Bette Grande will announce U.S. House run Tuesday". Flickertales from The Hill. areavoices. Archived from the original on December 20, 2011. Retrieved October 3, 2011.
- ^ Smith, Nick (January 12, 2012). "Hendrickson joins GOP race for U.S. House". The Bismarck Tribune. Retrieved January 12, 2012.
- ^ Daum, Kristen M (December 5, 2011). "West Fargo legislator seeks GOP nod in packed U.S. House race". Flickertales from The Hill. Archived from the original on July 15, 2012. Retrieved December 5, 2011.
- ^ Catanese, David (April 27, 2011). "Hoeven: Berg 'likely' to run". Politico. Retrieved April 29, 2011.
- ^ a b Toeplitz, Shira (May 3, 2011). "N.D. GOP Expecting Competitive House Race". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 6, 2012. Retrieved May 4, 2011.
- ^ Schneider, Mark (June 12, 2011). "North Dakota asks: Is anyone on the job?". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Retrieved June 13, 2011.[permanent dead link]
- ^ Daum, Kristen M (October 13, 2011). "N.D. tax commissioner opts against congressional bid in 2012". Flickertales from The Hill. Archived from the original on December 18, 2011. Retrieved October 13, 2011.
- ^ Daum, Kristen M (November 2, 2011). "Grindberg not running for U.S. House in 2012". Flickertales from The Hill. areavoices. Archived from the original on February 19, 2014. Retrieved November 2, 2011.
- ^ Finneman, Teri (February 20, 2012). "Kelly Schmidt to seek third term as North Dakota treasurer". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Retrieved February 25, 2012.[permanent dead link]
- ^ Daum, Kristen M (December 1, 2011). "NDGOP announces Dec. 14th debate for its U.S. House candidates". Flickertales from The Hill. Archived from the original on July 15, 2012. Retrieved December 2, 2011.
- ^ Mason Dixon
- ^ a b Forum Communications Co.
- ^ a b c "North Dakota Secretary of State".
- ^ Daum, Kristen M (September 21, 2011). "Democrat Pam Gulleson running for North Dakota's U.S. House seat". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Archived from the original on September 26, 2011. Retrieved September 22, 2011.
- ^ Daum, Kristen M (September 28, 2011). "Former state legislator Vig declines U.S. House run". Flickertales from The Hill. Archived from the original on December 20, 2011. Retrieved September 28, 2011.
- ^ Ames, Richard (November 20, 2011). "Libertarians take a stand on measure #2" (Press release). Libertarian Party of North Dakota. Archived from the original on April 26, 2012. Retrieved December 14, 2011.
- ^ "CANDIDATES". gopyoungguns.com. Archived from the original on January 1, 2013. Retrieved January 16, 2023.
- ^ "Blue Dog Endorsements". bluedogdems.ngpvanhost.com/. Archived from the original on November 24, 2012. Retrieved February 23, 2023.
- ^ "RED TO BLUE 2012". DCCC. Archived from the original on October 26, 2012. Retrieved March 5, 2023.
- ^ Mason Dixon
- ^ Forum/Essman
- ^ Mason-Dixon
- ^ Mason Dixon
- ^ "The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races". Cookpolitical.com. November 5, 2012. Retrieved November 6, 2012.
- ^ "House Ratings". Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. November 2, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
- ^ [1], as of November 4, 2012[update]
- ^ Crystal Ball, as of November 5, 2012[update]
- ^ House Race Ratings, The New York Times, as of November 4, 2012[update]
- ^ [2], as of November 4, 2012[update]
- ^ "House Ratings". The Hill. November 3, 2012. Retrieved November 4, 2012.
External links
[edit]- North Dakota State Board of Elections
- United States House of Representatives elections in North Dakota, 2012 at Ballotpedia
- North Dakota U.S. House at OurCampaigns.com
- Campaign contributions for U.S. Congressional races in North Dakota from OpenSecrets
- Outside spending at the Sunlight Foundation
Official campaign websites