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2012 Atlantic hurricane season

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2012 Atlantic hurricane season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedMay 19, 2012
Last system dissipatedSeason currently active
Strongest storm
NameSandy
 • Maximum winds110 mph (175 km/h)
 • Lowest pressure954 mbar (hPa; 28.17 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions19
Total storms19
Hurricanes10
Major hurricanes
(Cat. 3+)		1
Total fatalities70 direct, 7 indirect
Total damage~ $2.579 billion (2012 USD)
Related article
Atlantic hurricane seasons
2010, 2011, 2012, Post-2012

The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is a very active atlantic hurricane season in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation that has so far seen 19 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, and only 1 major hurricane, exceeding the predicted maximum number of both tropical storms and hurricanes. The season officially began on Friday, June 1, 2012, and ends on Friday, November 30, 2012. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones develop in the Atlantic basin.[1] With the formation of Tropical Storm Tony, this season marked the first known occurrence of three hurricane seasons in a row with nineteen named storms. This season is currently tied with 1887, 1995, 2010, and 2011 for being the third most active season in history.

The season experienced an early burst of activity when Tropical Storm Alberto and Tropical Storm Beryl both developed several days before the official start of the season, an occurrence not seen since the 1908 Atlantic hurricane season.[2] When Tropical Storm Debby formed on June 23, it was the first time that four storms formed before July since record keeping began in 1851. The record pace stopped in July, with no tropical cyclones forming in July for the first time since 2009. This quiet streak quickly ended with Ernesto on August 1.[3] Eight named storms then formed in August, tying the record of most named storms for the month set in 2004. Several storms have affected land, including the destructive Hurricane Isaac, which caused extensive damage along the Gulf Coast and especially in the state of Louisiana. Tropical Storm Joyce, Hurricane Kirk, Hurricane Leslie, Hurricane Michael, and Tropical Storm Tony became the second earliest tenth, eleventh, twelfth, thirteenth, and nineteenth named storms, respectively. Hurricane Nadine became the 5th longest-lasting tropical cyclone on record.

Seasonal forecasts

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2012 season
Source Date Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Average (1950–2000)[4] 9.6 5.9 2.3
Record high activity 28 15 8
Record low activity 4 2 0†
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
TSR December 7, 2011[5] 14 7 3
WSI December 21, 2011[6] 12 7 3
CSU April 4, 2012[7] 10 4 2
TSR April 12, 2012[8] 13 6 3
TWC April 24, 2012[9] 11 6 2
TSR May 23, 2012[10] 13 6 3
UKMO May 24, 2012[11] 10* N/A N/A
NOAA May 24, 2012[12] 9-15 4-8 1-3
FSU COAPS May 30, 2012[13] 13 7 N/A
CSU June 1, 2012[14] 13 5 2
TSR June 6, 2012[15] 14 6 3
NOAA August 9, 2012[16] 12-17 5-8 2-3
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Actual activity
 19 10 1
* June–November only.
† Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all)

Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University; and separately by NOAA forecasters. CSU's December 2011 discussion was notable in that the forecasting team announced it would no longer attempt quantitative forecasting nearly six months out, noting "...forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill." They will, however, release a quantitative forecast for 2012 in April.[17]

Klotzbach's team (formerly led by Gray) defined the average number of storms per season (1981 to 2010) as 12.1 tropical storms, 6.4 hurricanes, 2.7 major hurricanes (storms reaching at least Category 3 strength in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) and ACE Index 96.1.[4] NOAA defines a season as above-normal, near-normal or below-normal by a combination of the number of named storms, the number reaching hurricane strength, the number reaching major hurricane strength and ACE Index.[18]

Pre-season forecasts

On December 7, 2011, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a public consortium consisting of experts on insurance, risk management, and seasonal climate forecasting at University College London, issued an extended-range forecast predicting an above-average hurricane season. In its report, TSR noted that tropical cyclone activity could be about 49% above the 1950–2010 average, with 14.1 (±4.2) tropical storms, 6.7 (±3.0) hurricanes, and 3.3 (±1.6) major hurricanes anticipated, and a cumulative ACE index of 117 (±58).[5] Later that month on December 21, Weather Services International (WSI) issued an extended-range forecast predicting a near average hurricane season. In its forecast, WSI noted that a cooler North Atlantic Oscillation not seen in a decade, combined with weakening La Niña, would result in a near-average season with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. They also predicted a near-average probability of a hurricane landfall on the United States coastline, with a slightly elevated chance on the Gulf Coast and a slightly reduced chance along the East Coast.[6] On April 4, 2012, Colorado State University (CSU) issued their updated forecast for the season, calling for a below-normal season due to an increased chance for the development of an El Niño during the season.[7] On April 12, 2012, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) issued their update forecast for the season, slightly revising down their predictions as well.[8]

On May 24, 2012, NOAA released their forecast for the season, predicting a near-normal season (nine to 15 named storms, four to eight hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). NOAA based its forecast on higher wind shear, cooler temperatures in the Main Development Region of the Eastern Atlantic, and the continuance of the "high activity" era (i.e. Atlantic multidecadal oscillation warm phase) which began in 1995. Gerry Bell, lead seasonal forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, added the main uncertainty in the outlook was how much below or above the 2012 season would be, and whether the high end of the predicted range is reached dependent on whether El Niño develops or stays in its current Neutral phase.[12] That same day, the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO) issued a forecast of a below-average season. They predicted 10 named storms with a 70% chance that the number would be between 7 and 13. However, they do not issue forecasts on the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes. They also predicted an ACE index of 90 with a 70% chance that the index would be in the range 28 to 152.[11] On May 30, 2012, the Florida State University for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (FSU COAPS) issued its annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast. The organization predicted 13 named storms, including 7 hurricanes, and an ACE index of 122.[13]

Mid-season outlooks

From left to right: Tropical Storm Isaac inland over Louisiana, Hurricane Kirk in the open Atlantic, and the predecessor to Hurricane Leslie in the central Atlantic. Hurricane Ileana is also visible in the eastern Pacific.

On June 1, 2012, Klotzbach's team issued their first updated forecast for the 2012 season, predicting 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The university said there were large amounts of uncertainty concerning the phase of the ENSO as well as in Atlantic basin conditions. The organization also said the chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coast was 48%, compared to an average of 52% over the past 100 years. The chance of a major hurricane hitting the Florida peninsula and the U.S. East Coast is 28%, compared to an average of 31% over the past 100 years.[14] On June 6, Tropical Storm Risk issued their June update for Atlantic hurricane activity for the 2012 season, predicting 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 100. The agency noted that they anticipated the trade wind predictor to have a small suppressing effect on activity, and sea surface temperatures would provide a neutral effect. They continue with their forecast of a near-average chance of U.S. landfall activity using the 1950–2011 long term norm, but a slightly below-average chance of U.S. landfall activity using the recent 2002–2011 10-year norm.[15]

On August 9, 2012, NOAA revised its predictions saying more named storms are likely in this Atlantic hurricane season, as 3 tropical cyclones formed in the first week of August, even though a weak El Niño had formed. The agency now predicts between 12 and 17 named storms from the period that started on June 1 and will end on November 30. NOAA's original May prediction was between nine and 15 named storms.[16]

Storms

Main article: Timeline of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season
Hurricane Sandy (2012)Hurricane Rafael (2012)Hurricane Nadine (2012)Hurricane Leslie (2012)Hurricane Isaac (2012)Tropical Storm Helene (2012)Hurricane Ernesto (2012)Tropical Storm Debby (2012)Tropical Storm Beryl (2012)Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale

Tropical Storm Alberto

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationMay 19 – May 22
Peak intensity60 mph (95 km/h) (1-min);
995 mbar (hPa)

During the early morning hours of May 19, a non-tropical area of low pressure became stationary just offshore of South Carolina while producing organized shower and thunderstorm activity.[19] It quickly gained tropical characteristics over the warm sea surface temperatures of the Gulf Stream, and by 2100 UTC that afternoon, the National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Tropical Storm Alberto, the first named storm to form during May in the Atlantic basin since Arthur in 2008, and the earliest tropical storm since Ana in April 2003.[20] Combined with Aletta's preseason development in the Eastern Pacific, this became the first occurrence where tropical cyclones reached tropical storm status in both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins (east of the 140°W) before the official start date of their respective hurricane seasons.[21]

At 2250 UTC on May 19, a ship near Alberto reported winds of 60 mph (95 km/h), indicating the storm was stronger than previously assessed.[22] Little strengthening occurred over the next few hours, and in fact, slight weakening occurred that night as southeasterly shear and dry air entrainment began to impact the system, leaving the center exposed to the east of the circulation.[23][24] After remaining a minimal tropical storm for about 24 hours, the storm weakened to a tropical depression early on May 22 as it moved northeastward out to sea.[25] Late on May 22, the NHC discontinued advisories on Alberto after the system failed to maintain convection and dissipated; at this time the cyclone was located roughly 170 miles (270 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.[26] While the storm was active, Alberto produced 3 to 5 ft (0.91 to 1.52 m) waves, prompting several ocean rescues.[27]

Tropical Storm Beryl

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationMay 26 – May 30
Peak intensity70 mph (110 km/h) (1-min);
992 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Tropical Storm Beryl (2012)

On May 23, an elongated low pressure area developed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, with disorganized thunderstorms, and began moving northeastwards.[28] The low became better-defined over the Florida Keys,[29] and the cloud pattern organized.[30] After continuing to the northeast, the system developed a well-defined circulation with associated convection, located beneath an upper-level low. Based on the observations, the National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Subtropical Storm Beryl at 0300 UTC on May 26 when the system was located about 305 mi (490 km) east of Charleston, South Carolina.[31]

Little change in strength occurred until May 27, when Beryl transitioned into a fully tropical storm and reached its peak intensity, with winds of 70 mph (110 km/h).[32] After making landfall in Jacksonville Beach, Florida, Beryl weakened to a tropical depression as it tracked over land.[33] The storm then slowly turned to the northeast,[34] tracking over Georgia and South Carolina before becoming post-tropical on May 30.[35] Beryl would soon become an extratropical cyclone, as it accelerated to the northeast.[35] Beryl's landfall in Jacksonville Beach, Florida, was the strongest landfall in the United States for any pre-season Atlantic tropical cyclone on record.[2]

Hurricane Chris

Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 19 – June 22
Peak intensity75 mph (120 km/h) (1-min);
987 mbar (hPa)

On June 17, a low pressure area developed from a stalled out frontal boundary near Bermuda.[36] Atop warm sea surface temperatures and light wind shear, the low pressure gradually acquired tropical characteristics the following day,[37] and during the afternoon hours of June 19, after sustaining deep thunderstorm activity for a sufficient amount of time, the National Hurricane Center began writing advisories on Tropical Storm Chris.[38] Despite being at a high latitude over cooler water (22°C / 71.6°F), it strengthened into the first hurricane of the season on June 21.[39] After encountering cooler waters, it weakened back to a tropical storm just six hours later.[40] Early on June 22 Chris began transitioning into a post-tropical cyclone as it interacted with a larger extratropical low to its south.[41] The final advisory on Chris was issued at on June 22 after completing its post-tropical transition, as it was absorbed by a larger non-tropical low.[42]

Tropical Storm Debby

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 23 – June 27
Peak intensity60 mph (95 km/h) (1-min);
990 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Tropical Storm Debby (2012)

A tropical disturbance developed into Tropical Storm Debby on the afternoon of June 23 in the Gulf of Mexico, becoming the earliest fourth storm on record in the Atlantic basin; this beat the previous record set by 2005's Hurricane Dennis, which formed on July 5.[43] Debby moved sluggishly throughout June 24 and into June 25, at times becoming stationary.[44] Debby did not intensify as much as originally anticipated due to high vertical wind shear caused by an upper-level low on its western side that limited convective activity atop the center of circulation.[45] At 2100 UTC June 26, Debby made landfall at Steinhatchee, Florida with winds of 40 mph (65 km/h). Shortly after landfall, Debby weakened to a tropical depression and lost most of its central convection.[46] Debby maintained tropical depression status while crossing Florida, while still being sheared from the southwest.[47] As it exited Florida during the afternoon hours of June 27, Debby was declared post-tropical due to lack of convection near its then elongated center, although it had regained tropical storm strength.[48] Over the next few days the remnants of Debby continued to move northeast until they dissipated on June 30.[49]

Hurricane Ernesto

Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationAugust 1 – August 10
Peak intensity85 mph (140 km/h) (1-min);
980 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Hurricane Ernesto (2012)

A tropical wave crossed the west coast of Africa on July 26 and after the circulation became better defined, the National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Five at 2100 UTC on August 1.[50] At the time, the depression was located about 810 mi (1305 km) east of the Lesser Antilles, moving west-northwestward due to an anticyclone to its north.[50] Initially, the depression remained very disorganized due to westerly wind shear.[51] However, as a result of a Hurricane Hunters flight on August 2, the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Ernesto at 2100 UTC.[52] The next day, the storm moved over or very near Saint Lucia, and a station on the island reported a wind gust of 63 mph (101 km/h).[53] By August 3, Ernesto entered the Caribbean Sea, with anticipation of further strengthening as a hurricane by the next several days.[54] As Tropical Storm Ernesto approached the western Caribbean on August 5, moderate wind shear and a pocket of dry air briefly halted further intensification. Deep convection dissipated around the center of circulation and had an overall ragged appearance.[55]

Nonetheless, Ernesto regained deep convection around the center and finally it became a hurricane on August 6.[56] At 0315 UTC August 8, Ernesto made landfall in Costa Maya, Quintana Roo with winds of 85 mph (140 km/h).[57] After weakening into a tropical storm and moving into the Bay Of Campeche, the storm made another landfall near Coatzacoalcos, Mexico on August 9.[58] In Mexico, the storm killed 2 people because of heavy rains.[59] The system weakening inland across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and dissipated on August 10.[60] The remnants of Ernesto later contributed to the development of Tropical Storm Hector in the Eastern Pacific.[61][62]

Tropical Storm Florence

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationAugust 4 – August 6
Peak intensity60 mph (95 km/h) (1-min);
1000 mbar (hPa)

Late on August 1, a vigorous tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa. The wave developed a mid-level spin, and on August 3, the National Hurricane Center began to monitor the wave.[63] The wave slowly organized, and on August 4, the storm became Tropical Depression Six.[64] The next day it strengthened into Tropical Storm Florence.[65] Environmental conditions were favorable at first, which allowed Florence to strengthen into a moderate tropical storm.[66] As the system progressed west-northwest, it encountered drier and more stable air, which caused Florence to weaken.[67] These unfavorable conditions finally took its toll on Florence when it weakened early on August 6 into a tropical depression, with the system almost void of thunderstorms and a vortex spinning in its center.[68] Later that day on August 6, Florence weakened into a post-tropical cyclone and the final advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center.[69] After becoming post-tropical, the remains of Florence were still monitored by the National Hurricane Center as they continued to track west-northwestward while producing intermittent convection, although it never re-developed.[70]

Tropical Storm Helene

Main article: Tropical Storm Helene (2012)
Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationAugust 9 – August 19
Peak intensity45 mph (75 km/h) (1-min);
1004 mbar (hPa)

The National Hurricane Center began tracking a rapidly-moving tropical wave near Cape Verde on August 6.[71] The circulation began to organize on August 7, although thunderstorm activity was still disorganized.[72] Nonetheless, convection organized enough that Tropical Depression Seven formed on August 9.[73] However, minimal strengthening occurred and the depression instead degenerated into an open tropical wave on August 11.[74] The remnants were monitored for possible redevelopment, though on August 14, the system moved inland over Central America and was no longer expected to regenerate.[75]

After emerging into the Bay of Campeche, it redeveloped on August 17, though due to intensification, it was immediately re-classified as Tropical Storm Helene.[76] Helene moved northwest and made landfall near Tampico, Mexico on the following day.[77] Later that day, the storm was downgraded to a tropical depression, before dissipating early on August 19.[78] The remnant tropical wave produced heavy rainfall in Trinidad and Tobago, causing flooding and mudslides in Diego Martin on island of Trinidad. Two fatalities occurred and two other people were listed as missing.[79] Losses in Trinidad and Tobago reportedly exceeded 109 million TT$ ($17 million USD).[80]

Hurricane Gordon

Category 2 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationAugust 15 – August 20
Peak intensity110 mph (175 km/h) (1-min);
965 mbar (hPa)

A tropical wave exited the coast of western Africa and entered the Atlantic Ocean on August 10.[81] After passing over Cape Verde, it traveled in a general west-northwest direction, over colder waters, during which its development had been impeded and its shower and thunderstorm activity remained minimal.[82] As the low pressure system turned to a more northerly direction, it reentered warmer waters. The environment was favorable for cyclone genesis, and the system attained a deeper convection and better defined circulation.[83] On August 15, Tropical Depression Eight formed about 630 miles (1,000 km) east-southeast of Bermuda,[84] and strengthened to Tropical Storm Gordon in about 12 hours.[85]

Gordon turned to the east and was expected to undergo extratropical transition upon passing over the Azores, where vertical shear was expected to increase.[86] Wind shear remained relatively absent, and after developing more convection around its center, Gordon was upgraded to a hurricane on August 18.[87] After peaking as a strong Category 2 hurricane, a weakening trend then occurred. On August 20, Gordon drifted over Santa Maria Island, hours before becoming extratropical.[88] Although Gordon passed directly over the easternmost islands in the Azores, little damage took place. Several homes had broken doors and windows and streets were covered with fallen trees. Some areas temporarily lost power when the storm moved over, though electricity was restored hours later.[89] Torrential rains also triggered localized flooding.[90]

Hurricane Isaac

Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationAugust 21 – September 1
Peak intensity80 mph (130 km/h) (1-min);
968 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Hurricane Isaac (2012)

A tropical wave crossed the west coast of Africa between August 15 and August 16.[91][92] It initially struggled to organize, but eventually developed into Tropical Depression Nine on August 21, while located well east of the Leeward Islands.[31] Twelve hours later, it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Isaac, despite being rather disorganized.[93] Further strengthening was slow however, due to dry air entering the northeast quadrantof the storm[94] as it was passing just south of Guadeloupe.[95] An eye feature developed early on August 25,[96] and winds reached 70 mph (110 km/h) before landfall on the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti.[97] The storm became disorganized over Haiti and soon emerged into the Windward Passage.[98] However, re-strengthening did not occur because Isaac made landfall in Cuba.[99]

By early on August 26, Isaac entered the Straits of Florida and began to re-organize,[100] though dry air prevented convection from developing near the center. A subtropical ridge then curved Isaac northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico.[101] Based on data from the Hurricane Hunters, Isaac was upgraded to a hurricane at 1620 UTC on August 28.[102] Later that day, Isaac made landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River with winds of 80 mph (130 km/h).[103] The eye moved back over water shortly thereafter[104] and drifted offshore before a second landfall in Louisiana near Port Fourchon at 0715 UTC on August 29.[105] Several hours later, Isaac weakened to a tropical storm as it slowly moved through Louisiana,[106] before being downgraded to a tropical depression late on August 30.[107] The depression continued in a generally northward direction and transitioned into an extratropical cyclone while centered over Missouri on September 1.[108]

Tropical Storm Joyce

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationAugust 22 – August 24
Peak intensity40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min);
1006 mbar (hPa)

Early on August 20 the NHC reported that a Tropical Wave located between Africa and the Cape Verde islands was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.[109] Two days later it became sufficiently organized to be designated as Tropical Depression Ten, nearly 900 miles WSW of Cape Verde,[110] and on August 23 strengthened into Tropical Storm Joyce.[111] However, strong wind shear to the south of the storm's center of circulation inhibited further development; with most of the storm's convectional activity remaining displaced to the north, Joyce soon weakened to a tropical depression.[112] Joyce continued to weaken and the system fell below the threshold of a tropical depression, with its circulation no longer being closed. This prompted the NHC to issue the final advisory on Joyce at 11 am AST on August 24.[113]

Hurricane Kirk

Category 2 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationAugust 28 – September 2
Peak intensity105 mph (165 km/h) (1-min);
970 mbar (hPa)

During the evening hours of August 22 the National Hurricane Center began monitoring a large tropical wave and associated, disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.[114] Little change in organization occurred until late on August 25, when showers and thunderstorms associated with a newly-formed low pressure area increased. Wind shear increased atop the disturbance the following day however, and by 1200 UTC on August 27, the NHC had dropped the chances of tropical development down to 30%.[115] These unfavorable conditions were short-lived however, as deep convective activity once again increased over the low-level center. At 2100 UTC on August 28, the National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on newly-formed Tropical Depression Eleven.[116] At the subsequent advisory, the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Kirk, and the intensity forecast was increased significantly, as wind shear was not expected to be as much of an inhibitor as originally anticipated.[117] Slow intensification occurred over the following two days, and Kirk became the sixth hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season at 1500 UTC on August 30,[118] before further intensifying into a Category 2 late that night.[119] After reaching its peak intensity with winds of 105 mph, the cyclone entered cooler waters and gradually weakened; the storm fell below hurricane status early on September 1, and became a post-tropical cyclone the next day while remaining far from land.[120]

Hurricane Leslie

Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationAugust 30 – September 11
Peak intensity75 mph (120 km/h) (1-min);
968 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Hurricane Leslie (2012)

A tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa on August 27 and entered the Atlantic Ocean.[121] Tracking generally westward and initially remained disorganized, though it began to develop deep convection around the center by early on August 30.[122] Later that day, the National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve, which was located about 1,185 miles (1,905 km) east of the Windward Islands.[123] Due to warm sea surface temperatures,[124] the depression quickly intensified into Tropical Storm Leslie on August 30.[125] Although the storm significantly organized throughout August 30 and early on August 31,[126][127] wind shear began increasing thereafter, displacing convection from the center.[128] Despite disorganization, an eye-like feature appeared on satellite imagery early on September 1.[129] After re-organizing, Leslie was upgraded to a hurricane on September 5.[130] On September 11, Leslie made landfall over Marystown, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada with winds of 70 mph (110 km/h) as it became extratropical.[131]

Hurricane Michael

Category 3 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationSeptember 3 – September 11
Peak intensity115 mph (185 km/h) (1-min);
964 mbar (hPa)

On September 2, the National Hurricane Center noted a surface trough interacting with an upper level low northwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and began monitoring it for development.[132] It gradually became better organized and developed a surface circulation later that day.[133] On September 3, it finally developed enough organization to be declared a tropical depression,[134] strengthening to Tropical Storm Michael the next day.[135] Within its first 24 hours of tropical storm status, the system maintained little change in its strength.[136] However, the system became better organized, and strengthened enough to become classified as a hurricane on September 5.[137] Rapid intensification continued, and in two hours, Michael reached Category 2 intensity.[138] Four hours later, Michael became the first major hurricane of 2012 in the Atlantic basin.[139]

Later that day, after holding Category 3 status for 12 hours, Michael dropped to a strong Category 2 and began to slowly weaken.[140] After maintaining this intensity for over 48 hours, the system finally succumbed to high wind shear from nearby Tropical Storm Leslie and became a convectionless vortex by September 11, when it was declared a post-tropical cyclone by the National Hurricane Center.[141]

Hurricane Nadine

Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationSeptember 11 – October 4
Peak intensity90 mph (150 km/h) (1-min);
978 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Hurricane Nadine (2012)

A large tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa between September 7 and September 8.[142] Although dry air became a possible inhibitor for development,[143] Dvorak intensity estimates from the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) resulted in the National Hurricane Center initiating advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen at 1500 UTC on September 11.[144] After an increase in deep convection, the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Nadine early on the following day.[145] Nadine continued to intensify while moving west-northwest and then northwest around the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. However, late on September 13, moderate wind shear[146] displaced the low-level and mid-level center of the storm. However, the storm quickly re-organized and became a hurricane early on September 15.[147]

Nadine strengthened slightly further to 80 mph (130 km/h)[148] before weakening back to a tropical storm on September 17.[149] The storm continued to move eastward toward the Azores, but remained offshore. Nonetheless, Flores Island reported a wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h).[150] After convection weakened, an upper-level low developed, and the wind field became larger than average, Nadine transitioned into a subtropical cyclone on September 21.[151] After no increase in convection, Nadine was declared to be a post-tropical cyclone early on the following day.[152] Later on September 22, thunderstorm activity blossomed near Nadine's center and persisted, leading to NHC redesignating the system a tropical storm on September 23. Nadine drifted westward thereafter, to the south of the Azores. On September 28, Nadine became a hurricane for the second time.[153] Due to wind shear on the 29th of September, Nadine weakened back into a tropical storm, but by the next advisory it restrengthened into a hurricane for the third time. It reached its peak intensity of 90 miles per hour on September 30, holding on to its strength for 18 hours until it again started to weaken due to increasing wind shear and cooler waters. Nadine weakened to a minimal tropical storm on October 3, when it briefly reentered warm waters, thus dropping its pressure. On October 4, Nadine was picked up by the jet stream and eventually merged with a non-tropical system just before midday, prompting the NHC to discontinue advisories at that time.[citation needed]

Tropical Storm Oscar

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationOctober 3 – October 5
Peak intensity50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min);
997 mbar (hPa)

On September 30, a broad low pressure area formed a couple hundred miles west of the Cape Verde islands.[154] This low gradually became better organized as conditions were favorable for development,[155] and the NHC gave it a high chance of tropical cyclone formation (50% or more) on October 1.[156] The low developed into Tropical Depression Fifteen on October 3, with the NHC noting that the system had multiple swirls rotating around a common center. However, Fifteen was expected to strengthen only into a 45 mph tropical storm before being absorbed by a large extratropical low in 72 hours.[157]

On October 3, the cloud pattern of Fifteen morphed into a large cluster of cold-topped convection that had been steadily increasing in intensity and coverage.[158] An ASCAT scatterometer pass at 0030 UTC that day revealed several 40 mph wind barbs, and TAFB gave the system a Dvorak T-number of 2.5, equivalent to minimal tropical storm strength. On this basis, Fifteen was upgraded to Tropical Storm Oscar that day.[159] On October 4, the NHC reported that Oscar had strengthened despite hostile conditions, citing a 1300 UTC ASCAT pass that indicated that the strongest winds in Oscar had increased to 45 mph, but did not expect it to strengthen any further.[160] Late on the 4th, an ASCAT pass revealed that Oscar had strengthened a little more, to a 50 mph storm.[161] On October 5, visible satellite images and ASCAT data revealed that Oscar no longer had a closed circulation, and the convection that was left was confined to a small area and linear. On this basis, the NHC discontinued advisories on Oscar.[162]

Tropical Storm Patty

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationOctober 11 – October 13
Peak intensity45 mph (75 km/h) (1-min);
1005 mbar (hPa)

A small area of low pressure formed in the Atlantic in early October, northeast of the Bahamas. Initially, the system slowly developed, but strong wind shear quickly prevented further intensification. After being situated in a hostile environment for about a day or so, the wind shear finally abated, allowing the system to redevelop and acquire a well-defined circulation. The low also had persistent organized deep convection, and on this basis, the NHC issued the first advisory on Tropical Depression Sixteen on the morning of October 11.[163] That afternoon, convection reformed closer to the center and subjective Dvorak estimates from the TAFB and the SAB increased to 45 knots. However, the NHC noted that those estimates seemed too high and opted to use an ASCAT pass that showed maximum winds of 35 mph from the night before to "conservatively" set the initial intensity at 40 mph.[164] Patty strengthened very little over the next few hours, and reached its peak intensity of 45 mph late October 11. Later the next day, Patty weakened to a tropical depression due to strong wind shear from the west. Patty persisted as a tropical depression, with a deep burst of convection developing late on the 12th,[165] but succumbed to strong southwesterly wind shear the next day, as the circulation became elongated.[166] The last advisory on Patty, issued on the morning of the 13th, noted that the circulation had become highly elongated and no longer closed, and that it did not meet the qualifications of a tropical cyclone.[167]

Hurricane Rafael

Category 1 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationOctober 12 – October 17
Peak intensity90 mph (150 km/h) (1-min);
969 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Hurricane Rafael (2012)

A tropical wave exited the coast of Africa on October 5.[168] On October 8, the NHC first monitored a tropical wave about halfway between Cape Verde and the coast of South America, which had a weak low pressure area and elongated convection.[169] The thunderstorms gradually became more concentrated,[170] and the system became better organized.[171] By October 10, the area was producing tropical storm-force winds in its northern periphery.[172] Early on October 12, the system crossed into the eastern Caribbean Sea, passing near Saint Lucia.[173] Later that day, a Hurricane Hunters flight confirmed a closed circulation, which prompted the NHC to initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Rafael about 125 mi (200 km) west-southwest of Dominica. At the time, the deepest convection was located to the east and southeast of the center, due to southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level low near Puerto Rico. A weakness in the subtropical ridge allowed Rafael to track north-northwestward, and conditions were expected to favor further intensification.[174] On the morning of October 13, Rafael was observed to be moving north-westward followed by a slight left turn caused by a rebuilding mid–level ridge. On October 15, Rafael strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 75 knots (85 mph, 140 km/h) as it was moving northeast.[175] Rafael's center was found to be relocated which resulted in a track proceeding farther to the east. Rafael slowly intensified further, and reached its peak winds of 90 mph. Soon after, it began to weaken very slowly as it entered an environment of very strong vertical wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures. During the afternoon hours of October 17, Rafael transitioned into a extratropical cyclone, but remained powerful.[citation needed]

Hurricane Sandy

Main article: Hurricane Sandy (2012)
Hurricane Sandy
Current storm status
Category 2 hurricane (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC) October 25
Location:21°36′N 75°30′W / 21.6°N 75.5°W / 21.6; -75.5 (Hurricane Sandy) ± 20 nm
About 130 mi (115 km) S of Great Exuma
About 75 mi (125 km) NE of Holguin, Cuba
Sustained winds:95 knots (110 mph, 175 km/h) (1-min mean)
gusting to 110 knots (125 mph; 205 km/h)
Pressure:967 mbar (hPa; 28.55 inHg)
Movement:N at 16 knots (18 mph; 30 km/h)
See more detailed information.

A tropical wave was moving westward through the eastern Caribbean Sea on October 19.[176] It had an extended low pressure area, and conditions were expected to gradually become more favorable for development.[177] On October 20, the system became better organized, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) assessed a high potential for it to become a tropical cyclone within 48 hours.[178] By the next day, the associated convection, or thunderstorms, had become minimal, although barometric pressure in the area remained low, which favored development.[179] The thunderstorms gradually increased, while the system slowed and became nearly stationary over the western Caribbean.[180][181] At 1500 UTC on October 22, the NHC initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Eighteen about 320 mi (515 km) south of Kingston, Jamaica. This was based on surface observations and satellite imagery, which indicated the system had developed enough organized convection to be classified.[31]

When the tropical depression formed, it was in an area of weak steering currents, located south of a ridge that extended eastward from the Gulf of Mexico. The system was in an area conducive for strengthening;[31] this included low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, and there was a possibility for rapid deepening. Late on October 22, a Hurricane Hunters flight observed winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) in a rainband, which prompted the NHC to upgrade the depression to Tropical Storm Sandy.[182] outflow increased, while the convection organized further due to a moist atmosphere. Due to the favorable conditions, the NHC noted: "remaining nearly stationary over the warm waters of southwestern Caribbean Sea is never a good sign for this time of year. These environmental parameters are generally conducive for rapid intensification to occur."[183]

Current storm information

As of 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC) October 25, Hurricane Sandy is located within 20 nautical miles of 21°36′N 75°30′W / 21.6°N 75.5°W / 21.6; -75.5 (Sandy), about 130 mi (115 km) S of Great Exuma, and about 75 mi (125 km) NE of Holguin, Cuba. Maximum sustained winds are 95 knots (110 mph, 175 km/h), with stronger gusts. Minimum central pressure is 967 mbar (hPa; 28.55 InHg), and the system is moving north at 16 knots (18 mph, 30 km/h).

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center of Sandy, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

For latest official information see:

Watches and warnings

Template:HurricaneWarningsTable

Tropical Storm Tony

Tropical Storm Tony
Current storm status
Tropical storm (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:11 a.m. AST (1500 UTC) October 25
Location:31°00′N 36°18′W / 31.0°N 36.3°W / 31.0; -36.3 (Tropical Storm Tony) ± 25 nm
About 715 mi (1155 km) SW of The Azores
Sustained winds:35 knots (40 mph; 65 km/h) (1-min mean)
gusting to 45 knots (50 mph; 85 km/h)
Pressure:1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg)
Movement:ENE at 18 kt (21 mph; 33 km/h)
See more detailed information.

On October 20, the NHC reported an area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms about 1000 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands, associated with an upper-level low interacting with a tropical wave.[184] On October 22 the deep convection became more organised, and advisories were initiated for Tropical Depression Nineteen.[185] During the evening hours of October 20, the National Hurricane Center began monitoring a tropical wave interacting with a cold-core upper-level low across the Central Atlantic. Moving northwestward, the disturbance was initially embedded within an environment characterized by strong wind shear and abnormally dry air. However, a decrease in wind shear the following day led to a subsequent organization in the overall cloud pattern of the system. On October 22, the disturbance, now depicted with a well-defined area of low pressure and deep convection, the NHC noted that it now had a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. Following satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB that afternoon, the NHC deemed the low sufficiently well-organized to declare it as a tropical depression, but noted that dissipation was expected by Day 5. Slow organized continued the following day as Tropical Depression Ninteen moved northward in the response of an upper-level low to its west, and a multitude of data led to the upgrade of the tropical depression to Tropical Storm Tony at 0300 UTC on October 24.[citation needed]

Current storm information

As of 11 a.m. AST (1500 UTC) October 25, Tropical Storm Tony is located within 25 nautical miles of 31°00′N 36°18′W / 31.0°N 36.3°W / 31.0; -36.3 (Tony), about 715 mi (1155 km) southwest of The Azores. Maximum sustained winds are 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h), with stronger gusts. Minimum central pressure is 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 InHg), and the system is moving east-northeast at 18 kt (21 mph, 33 km/h).

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tony.

For latest official information see:

Storm names

The following names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2012. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2013. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2018 season. This is the same list used in the 2006 season. The names Kirk, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy and Tony were used for the first time this year. Kirk replaced Keith after 2000, but was not used in 2006.

  • Oscar
  • Patty
  • Rafael
  • Sandy (active)
  • Tony (active)
  • Valerie (unused)
  • William (unused)

Season effects

This is a table of all of the storms that have formed in the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s)–denoted by bold location names–damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all of the damage figures are in 2012 USD.

Saffir–Simpson scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2012 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season statistics
Storm
name 		Dates active Storm category
at peak intensity 		Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h) 		Min.
press.
(mbar) 		Areas affected Damage
(USD) 		Deaths Ref(s)
Alberto May 19 – May 22 Tropical storm 60 (95) 995 Southeastern United States None None
Beryl May 26 – May 30 Tropical storm 70 (110) 992 Cuba, The Bahamas, Southeastern United States (Florida) 0.148 4 (2)
Chris June 19 – June 22 Category 1 hurricane 75 (120) 987 Bermuda, Atlantic Canada None None
Debby June 23 – June 27  Tropical storm 60 (95) 990 Cuba, Central America, Southeastern United States (Florida), Bermuda 308.7 7 (2)
Ernesto August 1 – August 10 Category 1 hurricane 85 (140) 980 Windward Islands, Jamaica, Central America, Mexico (Yucatán Peninsula) 252.2 12
Florence August 4 – August 6 Tropical storm 60 (95) 1000 Cape Verde None None
Helene August 9 – August 19  Tropical storm 45 (75) 1004 Windward Islands, Trinidad and Tobago, Central America, Mexico >17 2
Gordon August 15 – August 20 Category 2 hurricane 110 (175) 965 Azores Minimal None
Isaac August 21 – September 1 Category 1 hurricane 80 (130) 968 Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola (Haiti), Cuba, The Bahamas, Southeastern United States (Louisiana), Midwestern United States ~2,000[186] 41 (3)
Joyce August 22 – August 24 Tropical storm 40 (65) 1006 None None None
Kirk August 28 – September 2 Category 2 hurricane 105 (165) 970 None None None
Leslie August 30 – September 11 Category 1 hurricane 75 (120) 968 Leeward Islands, Bermuda, Atlantic Canada (Newfoundland), Iceland, Scotland Unknown None
Michael September 3 – September 11 Category 3 hurricane 115 (185) 964 None None None
Nadine September 11 – October 4 Category 1 hurricane 90 (150) 978 Azores Minimal None
Oscar October 3 – October 5 Tropical storm 50 (85) 997 None None None
Patty October 11 – October 13 Tropical storm 45 (75) 1005 The Bahamas None None
Rafael October 12 – October 17 Category 1 hurricane 90 (150) 969 Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, Bermuda, Atlantic Canada (Newfoundland) >2 1
Sandy October 22 – Currently active Category 2 hurricane 110 (195) 954 Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, The Bahamas Unknown 3
Tony October 22 – Currently active Tropical storm 50 (85) 1000 None None None
Season aggregates
19 systems May 19 - Currently active   115 (185) 954 ~2,579.2 70 (7)  

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)

ACE (104kt²) (Source) — Storm:
1 25.6 Nadine 11 2.44 Debby
2 16.5 Michael 12 1.44 Florence
3 14.8 Leslie 13 1.38 Alberto
4 9.47 Isaac 14 1.05 Tony
5 8.19 Gordon 15 0.970 Oscar
6 7.71 Ernesto 16 0.865 Beryl
7 7.51 Kirk 17 0.528 Patty
8 7.14 Rafael 18 0.245 Helene
9 3.89 Sandy 0.245 Joyce
10 2.72 Chris  
Total: 113

The table on the right shows the ACE for each storm in the season. Broadly speaking, the ACE is a measure of the power of a hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, (like Nadine) as well as particularly strong hurricanes (like Michael), have high ACEs. ACE is calculated for only full advisories on specifically tropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 34 knots (39 mph, 63 km/h), or tropical storm strength. Accordingly, tropical depressions are not included here. The ACE also does not include advisories where a storm is declared to be subtropical, so ACE is not shown when Tropical Storm Beryl or Hurricane Nadine were subtropical, for example. Later, the NHC reexamines the data, and produces a final report on each storm, which can lead to the ACE for a storm being revised either upward or downward. Until the final reports are issued, ACEs are, therefore, provisional.

See also

References

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