United States presidential election in Arizona, 2004

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United States presidential election in Arizona, 2004
Arizona
2000 ←
November 2, 2004
→ 2008

  John F. Kerry.jpg George-W-Bush.jpeg
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 0 10
Popular vote 893,524 1,104,294
Percentage 44.32% 54.77%

AZ2004.jpg

County Results
  Kerry—60-70%
  Kerry—50-60%
  Bush—50-60%
  Bush—60-70%

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Arizona took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 10 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Arizona was won by incumbent George Bush by a 10.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. Neither major party tickets campaigned here in the fall election. Arizona hosted the third presidential debate on October 13, 2004 in the city of Tempe.

Primaries[edit]

Campaign[edit]

Predictions[edit]

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Republican
  2. Associated Press: Leans Bush
  3. CNN: Bush
  4. Cook Political Report: Likely Republican
  5. Newsweek: Solid Bush
  6. New York Times: Leans Bush
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Bush
  8. Research 2000: Solid Bush
  9. Washington Post: Bush
  10. Washington Times: Leans Bush
  11. Zogby International: Bush
  12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling[edit]

Throughout several polls taken in the state in 2004, just one showed Kerry leading. The final 3 pre-election polls showed that Bush was leading with 51% to Kerry's 43%.[2]

Fundraising[edit]

Bush raised $3,196,692.[3] Kerry raised $1,525,930.[4]

Advertising and visits[edit]

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Analysis[edit]

The exit polls showed that Bush was the going to be the clear winner of the state, based on the fact that both Bush won among both genders. A major key factor was how 55% of the people thought the state economy was good, and 70% of those people voted for Bush. Also, 55% of the state approved of Bush.[7]

The key to Bush's victory was winning the highly populated Maricopa County with almost 57%. Although, Bush did win portions of state such as Arizona's 4th congressional district and Arizona's 7th congressional district and 4 counties. 50% of the voting age population came out to vote.

Results[edit]

United States presidential election in Arizona, 2004[8][9]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush 1,104,294 54.9% 10
Democratic John Kerry 893,524 44.4% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 11,856 0.6% 0
Write In Ralph Nader 2,773 0.1% 0
Write In David Cobb 138 0.0% 0
Totals 2,012,585 100.00% 10
Voter turnout (Voting Age) 49.6%

Results breakdown[edit]

By county[edit]

Bush won all but 4 counties.[10]

County Kerry% Kerry# Bush% Bush# Others% Others%
Graham 29.7% 3,185 69.7% 7,467 0.6% 68
Mohave 35.4% 20,503 63.5% 36,794 1.1% 618
La Paz 36.5% 1,849 62.4% 3,158 1.0% 52
Greenlee 37.4% 1,146 61.9% 1,899 0.7% 22
Yavapai 37.8% 33,127 61.0% 53,468 1.1% 988
Cochise 39.3% 17,514 59.5% 26,556 1.2% 525
Gila 39.9% 8,314 59.2% 12,343 0.9% 186
Yuma 41.6% 16,032 57.6% 22,184 0.8% 313
Pinal 42.2% 27,252 57.3% 37,006 0.6% 364
Maricopa 42.3% 504,849 57.0% 679,455 0.7% 8,447
Navajo 45.7% 14,815 53.3% 17,277 1.0% 312
Pima 52.6% 193,128 46.6% 171,109 0.9% 3,255
Coconino 55.8% 29,243 43.0% 22,526 1.2% 622
Santa Cruz 59.2% 6,909 40.0% 4,668 0.8% 91
Apache 64.6% 15,658 34.6% 8,384 0.7% 178

By congressional district[edit]

Bush won 6 of 8 congressional districts.[11]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 54% 46% Rick Renzi
2nd 61% 38% Trent Franks
3rd 58% 41% John Shadegg
4th 38% 62% Ed Pastor
5th 54% 45% J.D. Hayworth
6th 64% 35% Jeff Flake
7th 43% 57% Raul Grijalva
8th 53% 46% Jim Kolbe

Electors[edit]

Technically the voters of Arizona cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arizona is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from this state. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.[12]

  1. Linda Barber
  2. Malcolm Barrett
  3. Jim Click
  4. Cynthia J. Collins
  5. Webb Crockett
  6. Elizabeth Wilkinson Fannin
  7. Ross Farnsworth
  8. Ira A. Fulton
  9. Bernice C. Roberts
  10. Phillip Townsend

References[edit]

See also[edit]