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Revision as of 16:26, 5 March 2023

2023 Estonian parliamentary election
← 2019 5 March 2023
All 101 seats in the Riigikogu
51 seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Kaja Kallas Jüri Ratas Martin Helme
Party Reform Centre EKRE
Last election 28.93%, 34 seats 23.10%, 26 seats 17.76%, 19 seats
 
Leader Helir-Valdor Seeder Lauri Läänemets Lavly Perling
Party Isamaa SDE Parempoolsed
Last election 11.44%, 12 seats 9.83%, 10 seats New party
Electoral districts
Incumbent Prime Minister

Kaja Kallas
Reform



Parliamentary elections are being held in Estonia on 5 March 2023 to elect all 101 members of the Riigikogu. The Centre Party led by Jüri Ratas formed a government after the 2019 parliamentary election, with Ratas serving as prime minister. His government was brought down in January 2021 after a corruption investigation; Kaja Kallas of the Reform Party formed a coalition government with the Centre Party afterwards although it fell in June 2022. Kallas then formed a government with Isamaa and the Social Democratic Party and remained in the position as prime minister. In January 2023, the National Electoral Committee announced that 9 political parties and 10 individual candidates had registered to take part in the 2023 parliamentary election.

During the campaign period, issues discussed most extensively regarded national defence and security, due to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the economy. Individuals from contesting political parties also took part in organised debates in January and February 2023. Voting at foreign embassies took place from 18 to 23 February while voters had the option to vote during the pre-election period from 27 February to 4 March.

Background

The previous parliamentary election, which was held in March 2019, saw the loss of the absolute majority held by Jüri Ratas's cabinet in Riigikogu, the unicameral parliament of Estonia. Ratas' Centre Party, Isamaa, and Social Democratic Party (SDE) all suffered a setback in favour of the Reform Party, led by Kaja Kallas, and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE).[1] Kersti Kaljulaid, the president of Estonia, gave a mandate to Kallas to form a government after the election.[2] The Reform Party negotiated with the Centre Party, Isamaa, and SDE, but ultimately failed to form a government.[3][4][5] After the vote in April 2019, Ratas received the mandate and successfully formed a government with Isamaa and EKRE.[6] His cabinet was sworn on 29 April 2019.[7][8]

In January 2021, the Centre Party-led government fell down after a corruption investigation in which the Centre Party was accused of requesting a financial support of up to €1 million within a year in return of the €39 million loan to Hillar Teder's real estate development in Tallinn.[9] In response, Ratas resigned as prime minister, while Kallas was offered to form a government.[10] She struck a deal with the Centre Party, with Kallas now serving as prime minister.[11] In June 2022 however, the coalition government between the Centre and Reform Party collapsed due to Centre Party's opposition against a law regarding education.[12] This occurred during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine; the Centre Party was seen as being close to the Russian minority in Estonia.[12] In response, Kallas opened negotiations with Isamaa and SDE, successfully forming a government on 15 July 2022.[13][14]

Electoral system

The Riigikogu is made up of 101 seats and its representatives are elected by proportional representation in twelve multi-member constituencies.[15] Of this total, 75 seats are to be filled in 12 constituencies of 5 to 15 seats depending on their population, and the remaining 26 seats, known as "compensation seats", are allocated using the d'Hondt method to all parties that exceeded the 5% electoral threshold, to bring the results in terms of seats as close as possible to those of the vote of the population.[16][17] Voters have the possibility of casting a preferential vote for one of the candidates on the list for which they are voting.[16][17] If a candidate collects more preferential votes than the amount of the simple quotient in his constituency, they are declared elected even if the list for which they are candidate for fails to cross the 5% electoral threshold.[16][17]

In November 2022, president Alar Karis signed the election decree, setting the date for 5 March 2023.[18] Estonian citizens who are at least 18 years, are registered in the voting list, have not been declared incapacitated or convicted of a crime by a court, or serving a prison sentence have the right to vote.[19][20] In foreign embassies abroad, voting took place from 18 to 23 February 2023, while to vote by mail in foreign countries, the voter had to submit a written request to the foreign mission by 3 February 2023.[19][21] Advance voting in Estonia took place from 27 February to 4 March, meaning that a voter could vote outside the electoral district of their residence and electronically.[19][21] Unlike in previous election, on 5 March voters will be able to vote in any precinct within the constituency, while voters who had voted electronically during the advance voting would be able to vote on a paper ballot, although their electronic vote would be cancelled.[19][21] Citizens who are not able to go to the polling stations or to vote electronically could order a ballot box at home and vote between 3 and 5 March 2023.[19][21] Around eighty foreign observers will monitor the election.[22]

Seats by electoral district

# Electoral district Seats
1 Haabersti, Põhja-Tallinn and Kristiine districts in Tallinn 10
2 Kesklinn, Lasnamäe and Pirita districts in Tallinn 13
3 Mustamäe and Nõmme districts in Tallinn 8
4 Harju (excluding Tallinn) and Rapla counties 16
5 Hiiu, Lääne and Saare counties 6
6 Lääne-Viru county 5
7 Ida-Viru county 6
8 Järva and Viljandi counties 7
9 Jõgeva and Tartu counties (excluding Tartu) 7
10 City of Tartu 8
11 Võru, Valga and Põlva counties 8
12 Pärnu county 7
Source: Eesti Rahvusringhääling[23]

Pre-election composition

9
23
34
11
1
19
4
Party Seats
Estonian Reform Party 34
Estonian Centre Party 23
Conservative People's Party of Estonia 19
Isamaa 11
Social Democratic Party 9
Parempoolsed 1
Independents 4
Source: Riigikogu[24]

Contesting parties

The Estonian National Electoral Committee announced that 9 political parties and 10 individual candidates registered to take part in the 2023 parliamentary election. Their registration numbers and order were determined by a draw lot.[25][26][27]

# Name Ideology Political position Leader Total candidates 2019 result
Votes (%) Seats
1
 Parempoolsed Fiscal conservatism Centre-right Lavly Perling 125 Party did not exist
2
 Greens Green politics Centre-left Johanna Maria Tõugu 58 1.8%
0 / 101
3
 Isamaa National conservatism Centre-right to
right-wing 		Helir-Valdor Seeder 125 11.4%
12 / 101
4
 Social Democratic Party Social democracy Centre-left Lauri Läänemets 125 9.8%
10 / 101
5
 Conservative People's Party Right-wing populism Right-wing to
far-right 		Martin Helme 125 17.8%
19 / 101
6
 Estonia 200 Liberalism Centre Lauri Hussar 125 4.4%
0 / 101
7
 Reform Party Classical liberalism Centre-right Kaja Kallas 125 28.9%
34 / 101
8
 Centre Party Social liberalism Centre-left Jüri Ratas 125 23.1%
26 / 101
9
 United Left Party–Koos/Together[a] Russian nationalism[b] Left-wing Igor Rosenfeld 25 0.1%
0 / 101
—
 Individual candidates — 10 0.3%
0 / 101

Campaign

Issues

A demonstration in support of Ukraine in Tallinn, Estonia on 26 February 2022
Issues regarding the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine were discussed during the campaign period

The Eesti Rahvusringhääling and National Public Radio noted that the issues that were discussed during the campaign period were the cost of living crisis, especially regarding rising prices and inflation, as well as issues regarding security and national defence due to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.[30][31] Eesti Rahvusringhääling also asserted that the programmes of the contesting parties were largely influenced by the current war in Ukraine.[32] Ellu Saar, a sociology professor, and Triin Lauri, an associate professor at the Tallinn University, stated that in the programmes of EKRE and Isamaa stated their support to protect Estonian language in higher education, while Estonia 200 and SDE mention "united schools" where native Estonian-speaking and Russian-speaking students would study together.[33]

Saar and Lauri also noted that the Centre Party has a vague opinion regarding the issue of education.[33] The Estonian Greens and SDE also mentioned school culture, quality of management, reducing path dependence as issues they would tackle.[33] The Reform Party also stated its support for introducing national defence classes in schools, while Isamaa stated that there should be more investments in national defence.[34] The Centre Party called for higher salaries for those who work to contribute to the national defence, SDE suggested to implement a new tax regarding defence spending, while EKRE said that militarised border guards should be brought back.[34] Anne Raiste of Eesti Rahvusringhääling noted that the contesting parties all share similar positions regarding foreign policy and that they pledged to implement forms of direct democracy or a more efficient representative democracy.[35][36] EKRE and Isamaa have pledged to not accept any new Ukrainian refugees,[37][38] while on the other hand, the Reform Party has stated that it would continue accepting new Ukrainian refugees.[39] Euronews has noted that EKRE's support in opinion polls fell down due to alleged links with Russia.[38]

Regarding the economy, Raiste also said that the contesting parties had pledged to raise pensions to €1,000 or more.[40] The Centre Party stated its support for the introduction of progressive taxation, while SDE and the Greens had adopted similar positions.[41] On the other hand, Reform stated that it would balance the budget, while EKRE called for reduction of taxes.[41] Estonia 200 said that labour taxes should be lowered while Parempoolsed promised to not introduce any new taxes.[41] Scholars Liili Abuladze and Luule Sakkeus stated that EKRE and Isamaa put their family policy focuses on families with many children and that the needs of those most vulnerable are hardly addressed.[42] EKRE has also stated its opposition to transition to sustainable energy to lower energy bills, while the Reform Party has pledged to adopt sustainable energy.[37][39] EKRE has criticised Kallas' Reform Party due to the growing inflation.[43]

Debates

2023 Estonian parliamentary election debates
Date Organisers     P  Present    N  Non-invitee 
Reform EKRE Centre E200 SDE Isamaa EER Parempoolsed Refs
1 March Eesti Televisioon P
Kaja Kallas 		P
Martin Helme 		P
Jüri Ratas 		P
Lauri Hussar 		P
Lauri Läänemets 		P
Helir-Valdor Seeder 		N P
Lavly Perling 		[44]
27 Feb Postimees P
Urmas Klaas 		P
Jaak Valge 		P
Jaan Toots 		P
Kristina Kallas 		P
Krista Aru 		P
Tõnis Lukas 		P
Johanna Maria Tõugu 		P
Elmo Somelar 		[45]
23 Feb Postimees P
Jürgen Ligi 		P
Jaak Madison 		P
Jaak Aab 		P
Ando Kiviberg 		P
Lauri Läänemets 		P
Helir-Valdor Seeder 		N P
Priit Põllumäe 		[46]
23 Feb Lääne Elu P
Kalle Laanet 		P
Helle-Moonika Helme 		P
Janek Mäggi 		P
Kalev Stoicescu 		P
Madis Kallas 		P
Mikk Lõhmus 		P
Marko Kaasik 		P
Kristjan Vanaselja 		[47]
22 Feb Vikerraadio N N P
Jüri Ratas 		P
Lauri Hussar 		N N N N [48]
22 Feb Eesti Televisioon P
Kristen Michal 		P
Rain Epler 		P
Taavi Aas 		P
Marek Reinaas 		P
Riina Sikkut 		P
Priit Sibul 		N P
Siim Kiisler 		[49]
21 Feb Vikerraadio N N N N P
Lauri Läänemets 		P
Helir-Valdor Seeder 		N P
Lavly Perling 		[50]
20 Feb Postimees P
Yoko Alender 		P
Rain Epler 		P
Ismail Mirzojev 		P
Gea Kangilaski 		P
Lemmit Kaplinski 		P
Priit Humal 		P
Kaia Solnik 		P
Indrek Adler 		[51]
16 Feb Postimees P
Jürgen Ligi 		P
Kalle Grünthal 		P
Kersti Sarapuu 		P
Kaspar Taimsoo 		P
Eimar Veldre 		P
Ründo Mülts 		P
Oliver Rohesalu 		P
Priit Põllumäe 		[52]
16 Feb Vikerraadio P
Signe Risalo 		P
Kert Kingo 		P
Tanel Kiik 		P
Irja Lutsar 		P
Helmen Kütt 		P
Lea Danilson-Järg 		N P
Marelle Erlenheim 		[53]
16 Feb Eesti Televisioon N N N N N N P
Marko Kaasik 		P
Kristjan Vanaselja 		[54]
15 Feb Postimees P
Signe Riisalo 		P
Kert Kingo 		P
Monika Haukanõmm 		P
Diana Ingerainen 		P
Heljo Pikhof 		P
Merike Värik 		P
Susanna Saar 		P
Toomas Kasemaa 		[55]
13 Feb Postimees P
Andres Sutt 		P
Raul Siem 		P
Andrei Korobeinik 		P
Kristina Kallas 		P
Riina Sikkut 		P
Kristjan Järvan 		P
Marti Soosaar 		P
Lavly Perling 		[56]
9 Feb Vikerraadio P
Liina Kersna 		P
Jaak Valge 		P
Jaak Aab 		P
Kristina Kallas 		P
Piret Hartman 		N N P
Tauno Õunapuu 		[57]
7 Feb Vikerraadio P
Annely Akkermann 		P
Siim Pohlak 		P
Lauri Laats 		P
Joakim Helenius 		P
Lauri Paeveer 		P
Aivar Kokk 		N P
Alar Voitka 		[58]
2 Feb Vikerraadio P
Liina Kersna 		P
Loone Ots 		P
Tõnis Mölder 		P
Kristina Kallas 		P
Jevgeni Ossinovski 		P
Tõnis Lukas 		N P
Andres Kaarmann 		[59]
2 Feb AmCham
FICE 		P
Andres Sutt 		P
Martin Helme 		P
Tanel Kiik 		P
Joakim Helenius 		P
Riina Sikkut 		P
Urmas Reinsalu 		N N [60]
1 Feb Vikerraadio P
Hanno Pevkur 		P
Jaak Madison 		P
Neeme Väli 		P
Margus Tsahkna 		P
Raimond Kaljulaid 		P
Urmas Reinsalu 		N P
Ilmar Raag 		[61]
31 Jan Vikerraadio P
Meelis Kiili 		P
Jaak Valge 		P
Mihhail Kõlvart 		P
Aleksei Jašin 		P
Piret Hartman 		P
Hendrik Agur 		N P
Ivo Loide 		[62]

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2023 Estonian parliamentary election
Local regression chart of poll results from 3 March 2019 to 5 March 2023

Results

Voting at Estonian foreign embassies took place between 18 and 23 February 2023.[63] The National Electoral Committee had announced that over 456,000 voters cast their ballot during the pre-election period, which began on 27 February and ended before 5 March, a majority of whom voted online.[63][64][65] Voting stations on 5 March 2023 are opened from 9:00 am to 8:00 pm.[66][67] There are 966,105 citizens that have the right to vote in the election.[68]

101
PartyVotes%
Estonian Reform Party
Conservative People's Party of Estonia
Estonian Centre Party
Estonia 200
Social Democratic Party
Isamaa
Estonian Greens
Parempoolsed
Estonian United Left Party–Koos
Independents
Total
Registered voters/turnout966,105–
Source: National Electoral Committee[69]

Notes

  1. ^ According to Eesti Ekspress, the Tartu County Court did not register the Russian nationalist political group "Koos/Together" as a political party on 30 November 2022, as the total number of its members was below the required minimum of 500. The "Putinist" group's leaders decided to participate in the 2023 elections on the list of the Estonian United Left Party.[28]
  2. ^ In the online Russian-language edition of Postimees, publicist Valery Saïkovski has asserted that "the United Left Party is only relevant for Russian nationalist purposes."[29]

References

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