Pacific decadal oscillation: Difference between revisions
m →Reconstructions and Regime shifts: Journal cites:, added 1 issue number, using AWB (7751) |
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The propagation of h anomalies in the western pacific changes the KOE axis and strength<ref name="Qiu 2007" /> and impact sst due to the anomalous geostrophic heat transport. |
The propagation of h anomalies in the western pacific changes the KOE axis and strength<ref name="Qiu 2007" /> and impact sst due to the anomalous geostrophic heat transport. |
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Recent studies<ref name="Qiu 2007" /><ref name="Ceballos 2009">{{cite journal |last=Ceballos |first=Lina |authorlink= |coauthors=Emanuele Di Lorenzo; Carlos D. Hoyos; Niklas Schneider; Bunmei Taguchi|year=2009|month= |title=North Pacific Gyre Oscillation Synchronizes Climate Fluctuations in the Eastern and Western Boundary Systems|journal=Journal of Climate|volume=22 |issue=19|pages=5163–5174|doi=10.1175/2009JCLI2848.1|url=http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010%3C1821%3AATOICV%3E2.0.CO%3B2|accessdate=2010-10-07 |quote=|pmid=}}</ref> suggest that Rossby waves excited by the Aleutian low propagates the PDO signal from the North Pacific to the KOE through changes in the KOE axis while Rossby waves associated with the [[North Pacific Oscillation|NPO]] propagates the [[North |
Recent studies<ref name="Qiu 2007" /><ref name="Ceballos 2009">{{cite journal |last=Ceballos |first=Lina |authorlink= |coauthors=Emanuele Di Lorenzo; Carlos D. Hoyos; Niklas Schneider; Bunmei Taguchi|year=2009|month= |title=North Pacific Gyre Oscillation Synchronizes Climate Fluctuations in the Eastern and Western Boundary Systems|journal=Journal of Climate|volume=22 |issue=19|pages=5163–5174|doi=10.1175/2009JCLI2848.1|url=http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010%3C1821%3AATOICV%3E2.0.CO%3B2|accessdate=2010-10-07 |quote=|pmid=}}</ref> suggest that Rossby waves excited by the Aleutian low propagates the PDO signal from the North Pacific to the KOE through changes in the KOE axis while Rossby waves associated with the [[North Pacific Oscillation|NPO]] propagates the [[North Pacific Gyre]] oscillation signal through changes in the KOE strength. |
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== Reconstructions and Regime shifts == |
== Reconstructions and Regime shifts == |
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*1976/1977: PDO changed to a "warm" phase.<ref name="Hare2000">{{cite journal |last=Hare |first=Steven R. |authorlink= |coauthors=Mantua, Nathan J. |year=2000 |month= |title=Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989 |journal=Progress in Oceanography |volume=47 |issue=2–4 |pages=103–145 |doi=10.1016/S0079-6611(00)00033-1 |url= |accessdate= |quote= |bibcode=2000PrOce..47..103H}}</ref> |
*1976/1977: PDO changed to a "warm" phase.<ref name="Hare2000">{{cite journal |last=Hare |first=Steven R. |authorlink= |coauthors=Mantua, Nathan J. |year=2000 |month= |title=Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989 |journal=Progress in Oceanography |volume=47 |issue=2–4 |pages=103–145 |doi=10.1016/S0079-6611(00)00033-1 |url= |accessdate= |quote= |bibcode=2000PrOce..47..103H}}</ref> |
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*1988/1989:A weakening of the Aleutian low with associated SST changes was observed,<ref name="Trenberth 1994">{{cite journal |last=Trenberth|first=Kevin|authorlink= |coauthors=Hurrell, James W.|year=1994|month= |title=Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific|journal=Climate Dynamics|volume=9|issue=6|pages=303–319|doi= 10.1007/BF00204745|url=http://www.springerlink.com/content/m5711482u6554132/|accessdate=2010-10-26 |quote=|pmid= |bibcode=1994ClDy....9..303T}}</ref> in contrast to others regime shifts this change appears to be related to concurrent extratropical oscillation in the North Pacific and North Atlantic rather than tropical processes.<ref name="Yasunaka 2003">{{cite journal |last=Yasunaka|first=Sayaka|authorlink= |coauthors=Kimio Hanawa|year=2003|month= |title=Regime Shifts in the Northern Hemisphere SST Field: Revisited in Relation to Tropical Variations|journal=Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan|volume=81|issue=2|pages=415–424|doi=10.2151/jmsj.81.415|url=http://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj/81/2/81_415/_article/-char/en|accessdate=2010-10-26 |quote=|pmid=}}</ref> |
*1988/1989:A weakening of the Aleutian low with associated SST changes was observed,<ref name="Trenberth 1994">{{cite journal |last=Trenberth|first=Kevin|authorlink= |coauthors=Hurrell, James W.|year=1994|month= |title=Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific|journal=Climate Dynamics|volume=9|issue=6|pages=303–319|doi= 10.1007/BF00204745|url=http://www.springerlink.com/content/m5711482u6554132/|accessdate=2010-10-26 |quote=|pmid= |bibcode=1994ClDy....9..303T}}</ref> in contrast to others regime shifts this change appears to be related to concurrent extratropical oscillation in the North Pacific and North Atlantic rather than tropical processes.<ref name="Yasunaka 2003">{{cite journal |last=Yasunaka|first=Sayaka|authorlink= |coauthors=Kimio Hanawa|year=2003|month= |title=Regime Shifts in the Northern Hemisphere SST Field: Revisited in Relation to Tropical Variations|journal=Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan|volume=81|issue=2|pages=415–424|doi=10.2151/jmsj.81.415|url=http://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj/81/2/81_415/_article/-char/en|accessdate=2010-10-26 |quote=|pmid=}}</ref> |
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*1997/1998: Several changes in Sea surface temperature and marine ecosystem occurred in the North Pacific after 1997/1998, in contrast to prevailing anomalies observed after the 1970s shift SST declined along the United States west coast and substantial changes in the populations of [[salmon]], [[anchovy]] and [[sardine]] were observed,<ref name="Chavez 2003">{{cite journal |last=Chavez|first=Francisco P|authorlink= |coauthors= John Ryan, Salvador E. Lluch-Cota, Miguel Ñiquen C.|year=2003|month= |title=From Anchovies to Sardines and Back: Multidecadal Change in the Pacific Ocean |journal=Science|volume=299|issue=5604|pages=217–221|doi=10.1126/science.1075880|url=http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/299/5604/217|accessdate=2010-10-26 |quote=|pmid=}}</ref> however the spatial pattern of the SST change was different with a meridional SST seesaw in the central and western Pacific that resemble a strong shift in the |
*1997/1998: Several changes in Sea surface temperature and marine ecosystem occurred in the North Pacific after 1997/1998, in contrast to prevailing anomalies observed after the 1970s shift SST declined along the United States west coast and substantial changes in the populations of [[salmon]], [[anchovy]] and [[sardine]] were observed,<ref name="Chavez 2003">{{cite journal |last=Chavez|first=Francisco P|authorlink= |coauthors= John Ryan, Salvador E. Lluch-Cota, Miguel Ñiquen C.|year=2003|month= |title=From Anchovies to Sardines and Back: Multidecadal Change in the Pacific Ocean |journal=Science|volume=299|issue=5604|pages=217–221|doi=10.1126/science.1075880|url=http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/299/5604/217|accessdate=2010-10-26 |quote=|pmid=}}</ref> however the spatial pattern of the SST change was different with a meridional SST seesaw in the central and western Pacific that resemble a strong shift in the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation rather than the PDO structure, this pattern dominated much of the North Pacific SST variability after 1989.<ref name="Bond 2003">{{cite journal |last=Bond|first=N.A.|authorlink= |coauthors= J. E. Overland; M. Spillane; P. Stabeno|year=2003|month= |title=Recent shifts in the state of the North Pacific|journal=Geophys. Res. Lett|volume=30|issue=|pages=|doi=10.1029/2003GL018597|url=http://europa.agu.org/?uri=/journals/gl/gl0323/2003GL018597/2003GL018597.xml&view=article|accessdate=2010-10-26 |quote=|pmid= |bibcode=2003GeoRL..30wCLM1B}}</ref> |
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== Predictability == |
== Predictability == |
Revision as of 03:33, 18 August 2011
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b4/La_Nina_and_Pacific_Decadal_Anomalies_-_April_2008.png/250px-La_Nina_and_Pacific_Decadal_Anomalies_-_April_2008.png)
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a pattern of Pacific climate variability that shifts phases on at least inter-decadal time scale, usually about 20 to 30 years. The PDO is detected as warm or cool surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, north of 20° N. During a "warm", or "positive", phase, the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms; during a "cool" or "negative" phase, the opposite pattern occurs.
The Pacific (inter-)decadal oscillation was named by Steven R. Hare, who noticed it while studying salmon production patterns results in 1997.[1]
The prevailing hypothesis is that the PDO is caused by a "reddening" of ENSO combined with stochastic atmospheric forcing.[2]
A PDO signal has been reconstructed to 1661 through tree-ring chronologies in the Baja California area.[3]
The interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO or ID) display similar sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-level pressure (SLP) patterns, with a cycle of 15–30 years, but affects both the north and south Pacific. In the tropical Pacific, maximum SST anomalies are found away from the equator. This is quite different from the quasi-decadal oscillation (QDO) with a period of 8-to-12 years and maximum SST anomalies straddling the equator, thus resembling the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Mechanisms
Several studies have indicated that the PDO index can be reconstructed as the superimposition of tropical forcing and extra-tropical processes.[2][4][5][6] Thus, unlike ENSO, the PDO is not a single physical mode of ocean variability, but rather the sum of several processes with different dynamical origins.
At inter-annual time scales the PDO index is reconstructed as the sum of random and ENSO induced variability in the Aleutian low, on decadal timescales ENSO teleconnections, stochastic atmospheric forcing and changes in the North Pacific oceanic gyre circulation contribute approximately equally, additionally sea surface temperature anomalies have some winter to winter persistence due to the reemergence mechanism.
- ENSO teleconnections, the atmospheric bridge[7]
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d9/Atmospheric_bridge.png/250px-Atmospheric_bridge.png)
ENSO can influence the global circulation pattern thousands of kilometers away from the equatorial Pacific through the "atmospheric bridge". During El Nino events deep convection and heat transfer to the troposphere is enhanced over the anomalously warm sea surface temperature, this ENSO related tropical forcing generates Rossby waves that propagates poleward and eastward and are subsequently refracted back from the pole to the tropics. The planetary waves forms at preferred locations both in the North and South Pacific Ocean and the teleconnection pattern is established within 2–6 weeks.[8] ENSO driven patterns modify surface temperature,humidity, wind and the distribution of cloud over the North Pacific that alter surface heat, momentum and freshwater fluxes and thus induce sea surface temperature,salinity and mixed layer depth (MLD) anomalies.
The atmospheric bridge is more effective during boreal winter when the deepened Aleutian low results in stronger and cold northwesterly winds over the central Pacific and warm/humid southerly winds along the North American west coast, the associated changes in the surface heat fluxes and to a lesser extent Ekman transport creates negative sea surface temperature anomalies and a deepened MLD in the central pacific and warm the ocean from the Hawaii to the Bering Sea.
- SST reemergence[9]
Midlatitude SST anomaly patterns tend to recur from one winter to the next but not during the intervening summer, this process occurs because of the strong mixed layer seasonal cycle. The mixed layer depth over the North Pacific is deeper, typically 100-200m, in winter than it is in summer and thus SST anomalies that forms during winter and extend to the base of the mixed layer are sequestered beneath the shallow summer mixed layer when it reforms in late spring and are effectively insulated from the air-sea heat flux. When the mixed layer deepens again in the following autumn/early winter the anomalies may influence again the surface. This process has been named "reemergence mechanism" by Alexander and Deser[10] and is observed over much of the North Pacific Ocean although is more effective in the west where the winter mixed layer is deeper and the seasonal cycle greater.
- Stochastic atmospheric forcing[11]
Long term sea surface temperature variation may be induced by random atmospheric forcings that are integrated and reddened into the ocean mixed layer. The stochastic climate model paradigm was proposed by Frankignoul and Hasselmann,[12] in this model a stochastic forcing represented by the passage of storms alter the ocean mixed layer temperature via surface energy fluxes and Ekman currents and the system is damped due to the enhanced (reduced) heat loss to the atmosphere over the anomalously warm (cold) SST via turbulent energy and longwave radiative fluxes, in the simple case of a linear negative feedback the model can be written as:
where v is the random atmospheric forcing, λ is the damping rate (positive and constant) and y is the response.
The variance spectrum of y is:
where F is the variance of the white noise forcing and w is the frequency, an implication of this equation is that at short time scales (w>>λ) the variance of the ocean temperature increase with the square of the period while at longer timescales(w<<λ, ~150 months) the damping process dominates and limits sea surface temperature anomalies so that the spectra became white.
Thus an atmospheric white noise generates SST anomalies at much longer timescales but without spectral peaks. Modeling studies suggest that this process contribute to as much as 1/3 of the PDO variability at decadal timescales.
- Ocean dynamics
Several dynamic oceanic mechanisms and SST-air feedback may contribute to the observed decadal variability in the North Pacific Ocean. SST variability is stronger in the Kuroshio Oyashio extension (KOE) region and is associated with changes in the KOE axis and strength,[6] that generates decadal and longer time scales SST variance but without the observed magnitude of the spectral peak at ~10 years, and SST-air feedback. Remote reemergence occurs in regions of strong current such as the Kuroshio extension and the anomalies created near the Japan may reemerge the next winter in the central pacific.
- Advective resonance
Saravanan and McWilliams[13] have demonstrated that the interaction between spatially coherent atmospheric forcing patterns and an advective ocean shows periodicities at preferred time scales when non-local advective effects dominates over the local sea surface temperature damping. This "advective resonance" mechanism may generate decadal SST variability in the Eastern North Pacific associated with the anomalous Ekman advection and surface heat flux.[14]
- North Pacific oceanic gyre circulation
Dynamic gyre adjustments are essential to generate decadal SST peaks in the North Pacific, the process occurs via westward propagating oceanic Rossby waves that are forced by wind anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The quasigeostrophic equation for long non-dispersive Rossby Waves forced by large scale wind stress can be written as:[15]
where h is the upper-layer thickness anomaly, curl(τ) is the wind stress, c is the Rossby waves speed that depends on latitudes, ρ0 is the density of sea water and f0 is the Coriolis parameter at a reference latitude. The response time scale is set by the Rossby waves speed, the location of the wind forcing and the basin width, at the latitude of the Kuroshio Extension c is 2.5 cm s−1 and the dynamic gyre adjustement timescale is ~(5)10 years if the Rossby wave was initiated in the (central)eastern Pacific Ocean.
If the wind white forcing is zonally uniform it should generate a red spectrum in which h variance increase with the period and reaches a constant amplitude at lower frequencies without decadal and interdecadal peaks, however low frequencies atmospheric circulation tends to be dominated by fixed spatial patterns so that wind forcing is not zonally uniform, if the wind forcing is zonally sinusoidal then decadal peaks occurs due to resonance of the forced basin-scale Rossby waves.
The propagation of h anomalies in the western pacific changes the KOE axis and strength[6] and impact sst due to the anomalous geostrophic heat transport. Recent studies[6][16] suggest that Rossby waves excited by the Aleutian low propagates the PDO signal from the North Pacific to the KOE through changes in the KOE axis while Rossby waves associated with the NPO propagates the North Pacific Gyre oscillation signal through changes in the KOE strength.
Reconstructions and Regime shifts
The PDO index has been reconstructed using tree rings and other hydrologically sensitive proxies from west North America and Asia.[3][17][18]
MacDonald and Case[19] reconstructed the PDO back to 993 using tree rings from California and Alberta. The index shows a 50-70 year periodicity but this is a strong mode of variability only after 1800, a persistent negative phase occurred during medieval times (993-1300) which is consistent with la nina conditions reconstructed in the tropical Pacific[20] and multi-century droughts in the South-West United States.[21]
Several regime shifts are apparent both in the reconstructions and instrumental data, during the 20th century regime shifts associated with concurrent changes in SST, SLP, land precipitation and ocean cloud cover occurred in 1924/1925,1945/1946 and 1976/1977:[22]
- 1750: PDO displays an unusually strong oscillation.[3]
- 1924/1925: PDO changed to a "warm" phase.[22]
- 1945/1946: The PDO changed to a "cool" phase, the pattern of this regime shift is similar to the 1970s episode with maximum amplitude in the subarctic and subtropical front but with a greater signature near the Japan while the 1970s shift was stronger near the American west coast.[22][23]
- 1976/1977: PDO changed to a "warm" phase.[24]
- 1988/1989:A weakening of the Aleutian low with associated SST changes was observed,[25] in contrast to others regime shifts this change appears to be related to concurrent extratropical oscillation in the North Pacific and North Atlantic rather than tropical processes.[26]
- 1997/1998: Several changes in Sea surface temperature and marine ecosystem occurred in the North Pacific after 1997/1998, in contrast to prevailing anomalies observed after the 1970s shift SST declined along the United States west coast and substantial changes in the populations of salmon, anchovy and sardine were observed,[27] however the spatial pattern of the SST change was different with a meridional SST seesaw in the central and western Pacific that resemble a strong shift in the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation rather than the PDO structure, this pattern dominated much of the North Pacific SST variability after 1989.[28]
Predictability
NOAA's forecast [1] use a linear inverse modeling (LIM)[29] method to predict the PDO, LIM assumes that the PDO can be separated into a linear deterministic component and a non-linear component represented by random fluctuations.
Much of the LIM PDO predictability arises from ENSO and the global trend rather than extra-tropical processes and is thus limited to ~4 season, the prediction is consistent with the seasonal footprinting mechanism[30] in which an optimal SST structure evolve into the ENSO mature phase 6–10 months later that subsequently impact the North Pacific Ocean SST via the atmospheric bridge.
Skills in predicting decadal PDO variability could arise from taking into account the impact of the externally forced[31] and internally generated[32] pacific variability.
Related patterns
- ENSO tends to lead PDO/IPO cycling.
- Shifts in the IPO change the location and strength of ENSO activity. The South Pacific Convergence Zone moves northeast during El Niño and southwest during La Niña events. The same movement takes place during positive IPO and negative IPO phases respectively. (Folland et al., 2002)
- Interdecadal temperature variations in China are closely related to those of the NAO and the NPO.
- The amplitudes of the NAO and NPO increased in the 1960s and interannual variation patterns changed from 3–4 years to 8–15 years.
- Sea level rise is affected when large areas of water warm and expand, or cool and contract.
See also
References
- ^ Mantua, Nathan J. (1997). "A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 78: 1069–1079. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2.
{{cite journal}}
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Further reading
- LI Chongyin, HE Jinhai, ZHU Jinhong (2004). "A Review of Decadal/Interdecadal Climate Variation Studies in China". Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 21 (3): 425–436. doi:10.1007/BF02915569.
{{cite journal}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - C. K. Folland, J. A. Renwick, M. J. Salinger, A. B. Mullan (2002). "Relative influences of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and ENSO in the South Pacific Convergence Zone". Geophysical Research Letters. 29 (13): 21–1–21–4. Bibcode:2002GeoRL..29m..21F. doi:10.1029/2001GL014201.
{{cite journal}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - Steven R. Hare and Nathan J. Mantua, 2001. An historical narrative on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, interdecadal climate variability and ecosystem impacts, Report of a talk presented at the 20th NE Pacific Pink and Chum workshop, Seattle, WA, 22 March 2001. [2]
- Nathan J. Mantua and Steven R. Hare, 2002. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Journal of Oceanography, Vol. 58, p. 35–44. doi:10.1023/A:1015820616384 [3]
- Kevin Ho, 2005. Salmon-omics: Effect of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on Alaskan Chinook Harvests and Market Price. Columbia University. [4]
External links
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/4a/Commons-logo.svg/30px-Commons-logo.svg.png)
- "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)". JISAO. Retrieved February 13, 2005.
- "Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)". JPL SCIENCE - PDO. Retrieved February 13, 2005.