2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum: Difference between revisions
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! Date(s) conducted !! style="background:green; color:white; width:100px" | stay !! style="background:#dc241f; color:white; width:100px" | leave!!style="background:silver; width:100px" | Unsure !! Sample !! Held by !! Notes |
! Date(s) conducted !! style="background:green; color:white; width:100px" | stay !! style="background:#dc241f; color:white; width:100px" | leave!!style="background:silver; width:100px" | Unsure !! Sample !! Held by !! Notes |
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|27–28 November||style="background:white"| 30% ||style="background:pink"| 51% || 9% || Unknown || [http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/nqf0ycudkh/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Europe-220113.pdf YouGov/The Sun] || Northern Ireland not sampled |
|27–28 November||style="background:white"| 30% ||style="background:pink"| '''51%''' || 9% || Unknown || [http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/nqf0ycudkh/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Europe-220113.pdf YouGov/The Sun] || Northern Ireland not sampled |
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|13–15 November||style="background:white"| 30% ||style="background:pink"| 56% || 14% || 1,957 || [http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/nov/17/eu-referendum-poll Opinium/Observer] || Northern Ireland not sampled |
|13–15 November||style="background:white"| 30% ||style="background:pink"| '''56%''' || 14% || 1,957 || [http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/nov/17/eu-referendum-poll Opinium/Observer] || Northern Ireland not sampled |
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Revision as of 08:39, 5 June 2014
In January 2013, British Prime Minister David Cameron promised a referendum on British membership of the European Union if the Conservative Party win a majority at the next general election. Since the announcement in January 2013 of a proposed referendum on continued membership, more business and political leaders have expressed their opposition to the idea. Since 2010, polls have indicated that the UK public is divided on the question, with opposition peaking in November 2012 at 56% compared to 30% who wanted to remain and support peaking in 2013.[1] The largest ever poll (20,000) showed the public to be split on the issue, with 41% in favour of withdrawal, 41% in favour of membership, and 18% undecided.[2] However, when asked how would people vote if Britain manages to renegotiate its terms with EU and government would say that British interest are better protected; wide majority of over 50% would vote to stay.
Membership of the European Union has long been a controversial issue in the United Kingdom. Eurosceptics, who believe the UK would be better off outside the political and economic bloc, seek the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union.
No member state has ever left the European Union but after the UK joined its precursor, the European Economic Community in 1973, this decision was put to a referendum in 1975 which endorsed the continuation of the UK's membership.
The terms "Brexit" and "Brixit" are sometimes used to refer to a British exit from the EU, inspired by the portmanteau Grexit (Greek exit).[3][4][5][6]
History
Tony Blair in 2004 and again in 2005 twice promised a referendum on European membership but reneged on his promise once re-elected.[7]
In January 2013, British Prime Minister David Cameron said that if elected in the 2015 General Election, a Conservative government would negotiate new agreements with the European Union and would then hold a referendum on whether to remain in or to leave the EU.[8] Political leaders in the EU criticized the possibility of British renegotiation of its membership of the Union and publicly supported Britain's continued membership.[9] Public polls in France and Germany favoured a British exit.[9] The Obama administration has warned against a British exit from the European Union, arguing that it would reduce the British "voice" in the EU, which was not in the USA's interest.[10]
Cameron had previously rejected a referendum on Britain's EU membership, but suggested the possibility of a future referendum to ensure the UK's position within an evolving EU has "the full-hearted support of the British people".[11] The Labour Party say they do not support a referendum at the current time, but have not ruled it out for the future. The Liberal Democrats have said they do not support an in/out referendum because it is within Britain's interests to remain a member. The UK Independence Party, the British National Party, the Green Party of England and Wales,[12] and the Respect Party[13] all support a referendum.
Former chancellor of the exchequer and member of the House of Lords Nigel Lawson called for the UK to leave the EU in an article for The Times in May 2013.[14] He said the move "would be a wake-up call" to businesses, and would allow "great exporting opportunities to the developing world, especially Asia."[14] Prime Minister David Cameron has been facing calls from backbenchers to hold a referendum on EU membership before the 2015 General Election after the UK Independence Party's success in the 2013 county council elections.[15]
Private member's bill
In May 2013, the Conservative Party published a draft EU referendum bill and outlined their plans for renegotiation and then an in-out vote if returned to office in 2015.[16] The draft bill stated that the referendum must be held no later than 31 December 2017.[17]
The draft was taken forward as a private member's bill by Conservative MP James Wharton.[18] The bill's first reading in the House of Commons was made on 19 June 2013.[19] The prime minister and leader of the Conservative Party, David Cameron, was said by a spokesman to be "very pleased" and would ensure the bill was given "the full support of the Conservative Party".[20]
David Cameron has pledged to renegotiate the United Kingdom's terms of membership with the European Union (EU). He will lead a three-man negotiation team.[21] Whilst David Cameron has said that the 'only party' to promise a referendum on EU membership, the United Kingdom Independence Party says that is true of them.[22]
The Bill was introduced to the House of Commons as a Private Members Bill in June 2013, with the Second Reading on 5 July 2013. The Bill progressed through its Committee and Report Stages between July and November 2013. It was introduced to the House of Lords in December 2013 and had its Second Reading there on the 10 January 2014.[23] It has been suggested[by whom?] that the Bill 'won't make it through the Lords alive'.[24]
Television debates
In March and April 2014, two head-to-head debates between Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage on the issue of leaving the European Union were broadcast in the UK — "high-profile interventions by two of the UK’s most prominent pro-EU and anti-EU figures ahead of the European Parliament election".[25] The first hour-long debate, hosted by Nick Ferrari, was broadcast on radio station LBC on 26 March,[26][27][28][29] and was followed by The European Union: In or Out, televised live on BBC Two on 2 April.[25]
Snap polls by YouGov and ICM suggested that Farage performed best in the debate,[30] but the BBC's Nick Robinson suggested in his analysis: "History will record that Nigel Farage was the winner of these debates. Nick Clegg will hope that, nevertheless, he may have won something too by being seen to challenge Britain's political insurgent."[31]
Procedure
No member state has ever left the European Union. The United Kingdom voted to remain a member of the European Communities in a 1975 referendum. Three former territories of EU member states have withdrawn from the EU (or its predecessors): Algeria (1962),[32] Greenland (1985)[33] and Saint Barthélemy (2012) with the latter two becoming Overseas Countries and Territories of the European Union.
Before the Treaty of Lisbon entered into force on 1 December 2009, no provision in the treaties or law of the European Union outlined the ability of a member state to voluntarily withdraw from the EU.[34]
The Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe provided that any member could voluntarily leave the Union of its own accord[35] but this treaty was never ratified. However the voluntary withdrawal clause survived into the Lisbon Treaty as Article 50 TEU.[36]
This new provision formalised the procedure by stating that a member state may notify the European Council that it wishes to withdraw, upon which withdrawal negotiations begin. If no other agreement is reached the treaty ceases to apply to the withdrawing state two years after such notification.
The remaining members of the EU would also need to undertake negotiations to manage the changes to the EU's budgets, voting allocations and policies brought about by the withdrawal of a member state.[37]
Criticism of the proposal to withdraw
Should the United Kingdom withdraw from the European Union but remain in the European Economic Area or the European Free Trade Area, Britain would have to continue implementing European Union Law relevant to the Internal market, but would no longer have the authority to influence its formation.[38] The EEA agreement does not cover the following policy areas: common agriculture and fisheries policies, customs union, common trade policy, common foreign and security policy, direct and indirect taxation and justice and home affairs.[39] Currently this is what is done by Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein.
Around 1.4 million British nationals had exercised their right to freedom of movement to live, work or study in the European Union according to the British government.[40] British citizens are currently able to study in EEA countries at the same cost as charged to their own citizens: this arrangement applies equally between EU states. Were Britain to leave the European Union and the European Economic Area, British citizens would lose these rights. The status of the Common Travel Area between a UK outside the EU and an Ireland continuing as a member remains to be clarified.
According to the European Commission the European single market brings between £30 billion to £90 billion into the British economy.[41] It is unknown if Britain could negotiate a free trade agreement,[clarification needed] although the EU does have free trade agreements with Algeria, Colombia, Egypt, Mexico, Peru, South Africa and Tunisia, amongst others. The European trade commissioner Karel de Gucht told the British Broadcasting Corporation that Europe is "not a free lunch".[42] However the United Kingdom has a substantial trade deficit with the European Union (UK buys more EU goods than vice versa).
Some of those in favour of a British withdrawal say Britain could try to create a Commonwealth Free Trade Area to make up money lost by leaving the single market.[43] The idea of a series of bilateral free trade agreements, or even a full Commonwealth Free Trade Area was discussed at the 2005 Malta Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting. It is often noted however that Britain trades more with Ireland than with all the leading developing countries combined, the so-called BRIC economics of Brazil, Russia, India and China (only one of which, India, is in the Commonwealth).[44] Some of those opposed to a British withdrawal note that the British economy is most similar to other European economies as opposed to those in other countries.[44]
Response
Business opinion
Car manufacturers Ford and BMW have warned Prime Minister David Cameron against an EU exit, insisting it would be "devastating" for the British economy.[45]
Business lobby group the British Chambers of Commerce found that just 18 per cent of UK companies were in favour of entire withdrawal from the European Union.[46] Of the 4,387 companies surveyed in February—March 2013, they found that 33 per cent of businesses were in favour of withdrawal and negotiating a free-trade deal, whilst 60 per cent said a withdrawal could "harm their business".[46] A further 23 per cent said that further integration would be "beneficial" for their company.[46]
International reaction
In response to David Cameron's January 2013 speech on the EU, several countries submitted their views on the proposal and on the UK-EU relationship. The U.S. Obama administration expressed the belief that the United Kingdom is stronger in the European Union, and that the EU is stronger through having British membership.[47] The German Defence Minister, Thomas de Maiziere, claimed that it would diminish British influence in NATO.[48] French President Francois Hollande, in a speech to the European Parliament, said there could be no à la carte option for European membership.[49] In response to British Foreign Secretary William Hague's review of EU competencies, the Japanese Government said "The Government of Japan...expects that the UK will maintain a strong voice and continue to play a major role in the EU".[50] In July 2013, a letter from the Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr said "Australia recognises the UK's strength and resilience and looks forward to seeing it continue as a leading economy and effective power. Strong effective membership of the EU contributes to this."[51] The Swedish finance minister, Anders Borg, expressed that this was a serious matter, and that for Sweden the issue raised some concerns and could reorient the EU.[52]
A report by Tim Oliver of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs noted that there has been little analysis of what a British withdrawal could mean for the EU. The report argues a UK withdrawal "has the potential to fundamentally change the EU and European integration. On the one hand, a withdrawal could tip the EU towards protectionism, exacerbate existing division, or unleash centrifugal forces leading to the EU’s unravelling. Alternatively, the EU could free itself of its most awkward member, making the EU easier to lead and more effective."[37]
Labour for a Referendum
Labour for a Referendum (LfR) is a political campaign by members of the Labour Party that seeks a referendum in the United Kingdom on the European Union.[53] The movement was set up following a pledge by the Conservative Party to hold an in-out vote if re-elected in 2015.[53]
Let Britain Decide
Let Britain Decide is a political campaign by the Conservative Party that seeks a referendum on the UK's relationship with the European Union.[54] It was set up in June 2013 by party chairman Grant Shapps MP. The movement aims to force an in-out vote commitment on EU membership from all three major parties.
Exit plan competition
Following David Cameron's announcement of an EU referendum, British think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) announced in July 2013 a competition to find the best plan for a UK exit from the European Union, declaring that a departure is a 'real possibility' after the next election.[55] Those interested were asked to submit a 2,000-word proposal by 16 September 2013, with around 20 of the best being asked to produce a more detailed version.[56] Eight judges, including former Chancellor of the Exchequer Nigel Lawson, determined which entry is the most plausible.[56] The winning entry was awarded 100,000 euros (£86,525), and was announced on 8 April 2014.[56][57]
Iain Mansfield submitted the winning proposal in the competition with a submission focusing on addressing both trade and regulatory issues with EU members as well as other UK global trading partners.[57][58]
The six finalists for the Brexit prize had been announced on 26 March 2014. They were Rory Broomfield and Iain Murray (coauthored submission), Professor Stephen Bush, Ben Clements, Tim Hewish, Iain Mansfield, and Daniel Pycock.[59]
Opinion polling
Renegotiated terms
The proposed referendum discussed in this article would be on the basis of a prior renegotiation by the British government of its relationship with Europe. The first tables below show polling when the question is asked on this basis.
2014
Date(s) conducted | stay | leave | Unsure | Sample | Held by | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
18–19th May | 53% | 24% | 18% | 1,740 | YouGov | Northern Ireland not sampled |
24–25 April | 50% | 26% | 18% | 1,835 | YouGov/Sunday Times | Northern Ireland not sampled |
21–22 April | 52% | 26% | 18% | 2,190 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
23–24 March | 54% | 25% | 17% | 2,190 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
9–10 March | 52% | 27% | 16% | 3,195 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
9–10 February | 47% | 27% | 18% | 1,685 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
12–13 January | 48% | 29% | 18% | 1,762 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
2013
Date(s) conducted | stay | leave | Unsure | Sample | Held by | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12–13 May | 45% | 33% | 19% | 1,748 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
9–10 May | 45% | 32% | 20% | 1,945 | YouGov/Sunday Times | Northern Ireland not sampled |
7–8 April | 46% | 31% | 17% | 1,765 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
17–18 February | 52% | 28% | 14% | 1,713 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
Standard polling on EU membership
The tables below show polling on whether the UK should be in or out of the EU. It does not ask the question in the context of a proposed prior renegotiation.
2014
Date(s) conducted | stay | leave | Unsure | Sample | Held by | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
29–30th May | 41% | 39% | 15% | 2,090 | YouGov/Sunday Times | Northern Ireland not sampled |
20–21st May | 42% | 37% | 16% | 6,124 | YouGov/Sunday Times | Northern Ireland not sampled |
18–19th May | 43% | 37% | 16% | 1,740 | YouGov | Northern Ireland not sampled |
10–12th May | 54% | 37% | 10% | 1,003 | Ipsos MORI | Northern Ireland not sampled |
28 April–6th May | 39% | 38% | 17% | 1,805 | YouGov | Northern Ireland not sampled |
2-3 May | 39% | 46% | 15% | 1,005 | Survation/Daily Mirror | |
24-28 April | 41% | 49% | 10% | 1,199 | TNS-BMRB | Base: All those who would definitely vote in referendum (683) |
24–25 April | 40% | 37% | 18% | 1,865 | YouGov/Sunday Times | Northern Ireland not sampled |
21–22 April | 40% | 38% | 17% | 2,190 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
3–4 April | 42% | 37% | 16% | 1,998 | YouGov/Sunday Times | Northern Ireland not sampled |
27–28 March | 42% | 36% | 16% | 1,916 | YouGov/Sunday Times | Northern Ireland not sampled |
23–24 March | 42% | 36% | 17% | 1,558 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
9–10 March | 41% | 39% | 15% | 3,195 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
9–10 February | 36% | 39% | 18% | 1,685 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
7–20 January | 41% | 41% | 18% | 20,000 | Lord Ashcroft Polls | |
12–13 January | 33% | 43% | 19% | 1,762 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
2013
Date(s) conducted | stay | leave | Unsure | Sample | Held by | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10–11 November | 39% | 39% | 17% | Unknown | YouGov | |
23–27 September | 36% | 44% | 15% | 1,922 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
6–8 August | 32% | 53% | 15% | 1,945 | Opinium/Observer | Northern Ireland not sampled |
18–24 July | 35% | 45% | 21% | 1,968 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
4–5 July | 36% | 46% | 18% | 1,022 | YouGov/Channel 5 | Northern Ireland not sampled |
1–3 June | 49% | 51% | 0% | 1,566 | Survation/Sky News | |
17–18 May | 36% | 50% | 14% | 1,000 | Survation/Mail on Sunday | Northern Ireland not sampled |
16–17 May | 36% | 45% | 19% | 1,809 | YouGov/Sunday Times | Northern Ireland not sampled |
15–16 May | 24% | 46% | 30% | 2,017 | ComRes/Sunday Mirror/Independent | Northern Ireland not sampled |
15–16 May | 30% | 46% | 24% | 2,017 | ICM/The Telegraph | |
12–13 May | 34% | 44% | 22% | 1,748 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
10–12 May | 40% | 43% | 17% | 1,001 | ICM/The Guardian | |
9–10 May | 30% | 47% | 23% | 1,945 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
7 May | 35% | 46% | 20% | 719 | YouGov/The Times | Northern Ireland not sampled |
7–8 April | 36% | 43% | 21% | 1,765 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
4–27 March | 46% | 46% | 8% | 1,012 | Pew Research Center | Includes Northern Ireland |
17–18 February | 38% | 41% | 21% | 1,713 | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
5 February | 30% | 41% | 22% | 1,237 | TNS BMRB | |
29 Jan – 6 Feb | 33% | 50% | 17% | 2,114 | Financial Times/Harris | |
25 January | 36% | 50% | 16% | 1,005 | Survation/Mail on Sunday | Northern Ireland not sampled |
24–25 January | 37% | 39% | 24% | 1,943 | YouGov/Sunday Times | Northern Ireland not sampled |
23 January | 37% | 40% | 23% | 2,000 | Populus/The Times | |
20–21 January | 37% | 40% | 24% | Unknown | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
17–18 January | 34% | 25% | 40% | 1,912 | YouGov/Sunday Times | Northern Ireland not sampled |
10–11 January | 36% | 42% | 21% | 1,995 | YouGov/Sunday Times | Northern Ireland not sampled |
6 January | 36% | 54% | 10% | 1,002 | Survation/Mail on Sunday | Northern Ireland not sampled |
2–3 January | 31% | 46% | 22% | Unknown | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
2012
Date(s) conducted | stay | leave | Unsure | Sample | Held by | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
27–28 November | 30% | 51% | 9% | Unknown | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
13–15 November | 30% | 56% | 14% | 1,957 | Opinium/Observer | Northern Ireland not sampled |
2011
Date(s) conducted | stay | leave | Unsure | Sample | Held by | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
15–16 December | 41% | 41% | 19% | Unknown | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
8–9 December | 35% | 44% | 20% | Unknown | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
7–8 August | 30% | 52% | 19% | Unknown | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
2010
Date(s) conducted | stay | leave | Unsure | Sample | Held by | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8–9 September | 33% | 47% | 19% | Unknown | YouGov/The Sun | Northern Ireland not sampled |
Other opinion polling
On UK withdrawal
- Scotland – A poll conducted by Ipsos-MORI in February 2013 shows that a majority of Scots would opt for the UK to stay in the EU – 53% say they would vote to remain whereas 34% said they would vote to leave.[60] However, over half of Scots (58%), believe there should be a referendum on the UK's continued membership of the EU.[60]
- Wales – A poll conducted by WalesOnline in June 2013 found that 37% of people in Wales would opt to withdraw from the European Union whereas 29% said they would vote to stay in. More than one in five (21%), said they would not vote with 14% saying they don't know how they would vote.[61] Of the 1,015 people surveyed between 14 and 25 June, the poll found that support for leaving was greatest in the South Wales Valleys, and fewest in south-west Wales. The only age group to show a majority of those wishing to stay in were between 18 and 25.[61]
- France – A poll conducted by French daily newspaper Le Parisien found that 52% of French voters were in favour of the UK withdrawing from the EU.[62] Of the 1,136 people polled, in conjunction with French research agency BVA in January 2013, 48% said they would rather the UK remained inside the EU.[63]
- Germany – A study carried out by Internationale Politik found 64% of Germans favoured Britain remaining inside the EU – with just 36% saying they favoured an exit.[64] The biggest support for retaining the union with the UK was with the younger generation with 69% of 18–25 year-olds saying they wanted the UK to stay.[64] Amongst the German political parties, the Green Party remained most favourable at 85%.[64]
- Ireland – Ireland remains largely opposed to a British exit from the EU.[65]
On the possible withdrawal of other countries
- Denmark – A poll commissioned in January 2013 following David Cameron's EU referendum speech found that 52% of Danes would still want their country to stay within the EU even if the UK opted to withdraw.[66] However, 47% said they would like the government to attempt to renegotiate the terms of their membership.[66]
- Ireland – A Red C poll, commissioned by European Movement Ireland in January 2013, found most Irish people would opt for Ireland to remain inside the EU – 66% – even if the UK decided to leave.[65] Just 29% of those asked said that Ireland should leave if the UK does.[65]
Previous campaigns to hold a referendum on EU membership
2010 campaign by Nikki Sinclaire
In July 2010 Nikki Sinclaire (MEP) launched a campaign for a referendum with the aim of collecting 100,000 signatures calling for a referendum on the UK's continued membership in the European Union.[67] The Campaign's first roadshow was held in Stoke-on-Trent on 29 July 2010[68] and it visited over 50 towns and cities in the West Midlands. Alongside her weekly road shows, she created a magazine which by April 2012 was in its fourth issue.[69] The magazine has gathered cross party support. As of August 2011, the petition had attracted over 100,000 signatures.[70]
An electronic petition, set-up by the Daily Express, attracted more than 59,000 signatures from its creation in August 2011 to its end in August 2012.[71]
See also
- Budget of the European Union
- Danish euroscepticism
- People's Pledge
- Referendums in the United Kingdom
- Scottish independence
- Secession
- UK rebate
- United Kingdom European Communities membership referendum, 1975
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- Use dmy dates from March 2013
- 2012 in British politics
- 2012 in the European Union
- European Union law
- Euroscepticism in the United Kingdom
- Issues in international law
- Political concepts
- Political terms in the United Kingdom
- Politics of the European Union
- Secession in Europe
- United Kingdom and the European Union