Talk:Climate change: Difference between revisions
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:::::Okay, but the issue remains. It implies a temperature, not a temperature difference. We still need something better. Suggestions? --[[User:A D Monroe III|A D Monroe III]] ([[User talk:A D Monroe III|talk]]) 00:05, 22 June 2016 (UTC) |
:::::Okay, but the issue remains. It implies a temperature, not a temperature difference. We still need something better. Suggestions? --[[User:A D Monroe III|A D Monroe III]] ([[User talk:A D Monroe III|talk]]) 00:05, 22 June 2016 (UTC) |
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::::::I'm missing something, because I don't understand how the words "a mean warming effect" imply a temperature. Can you explain so that I can see where the confusion lies? [[User:Shock Brigade Harvester Boris|Shock Brigade Harvester Boris]] ([[User talk:Shock Brigade Harvester Boris|talk]]) 00:34, 22 June 2016 (UTC) |
::::::I'm missing something, because I don't understand how the words "a mean warming effect" imply a temperature. Can you explain so that I can see where the confusion lies? [[User:Shock Brigade Harvester Boris|Shock Brigade Harvester Boris]] ([[User talk:Shock Brigade Harvester Boris|talk]]) 00:34, 22 June 2016 (UTC) |
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== Semi-protected edit request on 26 June 2016 == |
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{{edit semi-protected|Global warming|answered=no}} |
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under the heading "Discourse about global warming" subheading "Scientific discussion", please change "Nearly all scientists agree that humans are contributing to observed climate change" to "Most scientists agree that humans are contributing to observed climate change" |
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because the latter is how it is phrased in the citation used (citation number 89, page 2, beginning of second paragraph). Wikipedia should not make a stronger statement than is supported by its citations. |
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[[User:TeddyW|TeddyW]] ([[User talk:TeddyW|talk]]) 18:43, 26 June 2016 (UTC) |
Revision as of 18:43, 26 June 2016
This is the talk page for discussing improvements to the Climate change article. This is not a forum for general discussion of the article's subject. |
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Frequently asked questions
Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on climate change?
A1: Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. This scientific consensus is supported by over 99% of publishing climate scientists.[1]
Q2: How can we say climate change is real when it's been so cold in such-and-such a place?
A2: This is why it is termed "global warming", not "(such-and-such a place) warming". Even then, what rises is the average temperature over time – that is, the temperature will fluctuate up and down within the overall rising trend. To give an idea of the relevant time scales, the standard averaging period specified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 30 years. Accordingly, the WMO defines climate change as "a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)."[2] Q3: Can't the increase of CO2 be from natural sources, like volcanoes or the oceans?
A3: While these claims are popular among global warming skeptics,[3][4] including academically trained ones,[5][6] they are incorrect. This is known from any of several perspectives:
Q4: I think the article is missing some things, or has some things wrong. Can I change it?
A4: Yes. Keep in mind that your points need to be based on documented evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, or other information that meets standards of verifiability, reliability, and no original research. If you do not have such evidence, more experienced editors may be able to help you find it (or confirm that such evidence does not exist). You are welcome to make such queries on the article's talk page but please keep in mind that the talk page is for discussing improvements to the article, not discussing the topic. There are many forums that welcome general discussions of global warming, but the article talk page is not such a forum. Q5: Why haven't the graphs been updated?
A5: Two reasons:
Q6: Isn't climate change "just a theory"?
A6: People who say this are abusing the word "theory" by conflating its common meaning with its scientific meaning.
In common usage, "theory" can mean a hunch or guess, but a scientific theory, roughly speaking, means a coherent set of explanations that is compatible with observations and that allows predictions to be made. That the temperature is rising is an observation. An explanation for this (also known as a hypothesis) is that the warming is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (such as CO2 and methane) released into the atmosphere by human activity. Scientific models have been built that predict the rise in temperature and these predictions have matched observations. When scientists gain confidence in a hypothesis because it matches observation and has survived intense scrutiny, the hypothesis may be called a "theory". Strictly speaking, scientific theories are never proven, but the degree of confidence in a theory can be discussed. The scientific models now suggest that it is "extremely likely" (>95%) to "virtually certain" (>99%) that the increases in temperature have been caused by human activity as discussed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Global warming via greenhouse gases by human activity is a theory (in the scientific sense), but it is most definitely not just a hunch or guess. Q7: Does methane cause more warming than CO2?
A7: It's true that methane is more potent molecule for molecule. But there's far less of it in the atmosphere, so the total effect is smaller. The atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO2 (hundreds to thousands of years), so when methane emissions are reduced the concentration in the atmosphere soon falls, whereas CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere over long periods. For details see the greenhouse gas and global warming potential articles.
Q8: How can you say there's a consensus when lists of "skeptical scientists" have been compiled?
A8: Consensus is not the same as unanimity, the latter of which is impractical for large groups. Over 99% of publishing climate scientists agree on anthropogenic climate change.[1] This is an extremely high percentage well past any reasonable threshold for consensus. Any list of "skeptical scientists" would be dwarfed by a comparably compiled list of scientists accepting anthropogenic climate change. Q9: Did climate change end in 1998?
A9: One of the strongest El Niño events in the instrumental record occurred during late 1997 through 1998, causing a spike in global temperature for 1998. Through the mid-late 2000s this abnormally warm year could be chosen as the starting point for comparisons with later years in order to produce a cooling trend; choosing any other year in the 20th century produced a warming trend. This no longer holds since the mean global temperatures in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998.[12]
More importantly, scientists do not define a "trend" by looking at the difference between two given years. Instead they use methods such as linear regression that take into account all the values in a series of data. The World Meteorological Organisation specifies 30 years as the standard averaging period for climate statistics so that year-to-year fluctuations are averaged out;[2] thus, 10 years isn't long enough to detect a climate trend. Q10: Wasn't Greenland much warmer during the period of Norse settlement?
A10: Some people assume this because of the island's name. In fact the Saga of Erik the Red tells us Erik named the new colony Greenland because "men will desire much the more to go there if the land has a good name."[13] Advertising hype was alive and well in 985 AD.
While much of Greenland was and remains under a large ice sheet, the areas of Greenland that were settled by the Norse were coastal areas with fjords that, to this day, remain quite green. You can see the following images for reference:
Q11: Are the IPCC reports prepared by biased UN scientists?
A11: The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and it has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by various organizations including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties. Q12: Hasn't global sea ice increased over the last 30 years?
A12: Measurements show that it has not.[14] Claims that global sea ice amounts have stayed the same or increased are a result of cherry picking two data points to compare, while ignoring the real (strongly statistically significant) downward trend in measurements of global sea ice amounts.
Arctic sea ice cover is declining strongly; Antarctic sea ice cover has had some much smaller increases, though it may or may not be thinning, and the Southern Ocean is warming. The net global ice-cover trend is clearly downwards. Q13: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that the Earth was cooling instead of warming?
A13: They weren't – see the article on global cooling. An article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has reviewed the scientific literature at that time and found that even during the 1970s the prevailing scientific concern was over warming.[15] The common misperception that cooling was the main concern during the 1970s arose from a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, such as a short nine-paragraph article that appeared in Newsweek in 1975.[16] (Newsweek eventually apologized for having misrepresented the state of the science in the 1970s.)[17] The author of that article has repudiated the idea that it should be used to deny global warming.[18] Q14: Doesn't water vapour cause 98% of the greenhouse effect?
A14: Water vapour is indeed a major greenhouse gas, contributing about 36% to 70% (not 98%) of the total greenhouse effect. But water vapour has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days), compared with decades to centuries for greenhouse gases like CO2 or nitrous oxide. As a result it is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, which globally maintains a nearly constant relative humidity. In simpler terms, any excess water vapour is removed by rainfall, and any deficit of water vapour is replenished by evaporation from the Earth's surface, which literally has oceans of water. Thus water vapour cannot act as a driver of climate change.
Rising temperatures caused by the long-lived greenhouse gases will however allow the atmosphere to hold more vapour. This will lead to an increase in the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Since water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, this is an example of a positive feedback. Thus, whereas water vapour is not a driver of climate change, it amplifies existing trends. Q15: Is the fact that other solar system bodies are warming evidence for a common cause (i.e. the sun)?
A15: While some solar system bodies show evidence of local or global climate change, there is no evidence for a common cause of warming.
Q16: Do scientists support climate change just to get more money?
A16: No,
Q17: Doesn't the climate vary even without human activity?
A17: It does, but the fact that natural variation occurs does not mean that human-induced change cannot also occur. Climate scientists have extensively studied natural causes of climate change (such as orbital changes, volcanism, and solar variation) and have ruled them out as an explanation for the current temperature increase. Human activity is the cause at the 95 to 99 percent confidence level (see the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for details). The high level of certainty in this is important to keep in mind to spot mention of natural variation functioning as a distraction. Q18: Should we include the view that climate change will lead to planetary doom or catastrophe?
A18: This page is about the science of climate change. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe. For a technical explanation, see catastrophic climate change, and for paleoclimatic examples see PETM and great dying. Q19: Is an increase in global temperature of, say, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) important?
A19: Though it may not sound like much, a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is huge in climate terms. For example, the sea level rise it would produce would flood coastal cities around the world, which include most large cities.
Q20: Why are certain proposals to change the article discarded, deleted, or ignored? Who is/was Scibaby?
A20: Scibaby is/was a long term abusive sock-master (or coordinated group of sock masters) who has created 1,027 confirmed sock puppets, another 167 suspected socks, and probably many untagged or unrecognized ones. This page lists some recent creations. His modus operandi has changed over time, but includes proposing reasonably worded additions on the talk page that only on close examination turn out to be irrelevant, misinterpreted, or give undue weight to certain aspects. Scibaby is banned, and Scibaby socks are blocked as soon as they are identified. Some editors silently revert his additions, per WP:DENY, while others still assume good faith even for likely socks and engage them. Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer-reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...?
A21: There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published every month in respected scientific journals such as Geophysical Research Letters, the Journal of Climate, and others. We can't include all of them, but the article does include references to individual papers where there is consensus that they best represent the state of the relevant science. This is in accordance with the "due weight" principle (WP:WEIGHT) of the Neutral point of view policy and the "Wikipedia is not an indiscriminate collection of information" principle (WP:IINFO) of the What Wikipedia is not policy. Q22: Why does the article define "climate change" as a recent phenomenon? Hasn't the planet warmed and cooled before?
A22: Yes, the planet has warmed and cooled before. However, the term "climate change" without further qualification is widely understood to refer to the recent episode and often explicitly connected with the greenhouse effect. Per WP:COMMONNAME, we use the term in this most common meaning. The article Climate variability and change deals with the more general concept. Q23: Did the CERN CLOUD experiment prove that climate change is caused not by human activity but by cosmic rays?
A23: No. For cosmic rays to be causing global warming, all of the following would have to be true, whereas only the italicized one was tested in the 2011 experiment:[28]
Q24: I read that something can't fix climate change. Is this true?
A24: Yes, this is true for all plausible single things including: "electric cars", "planting trees", "low-carbon technology", "renewable energy", "Australia", "capitalism", "the doom & gloom approach", "a Ph.D. in thermodynamics". Note that it is problematic to use the word "fix" regarding climate change, as returning the climate to its pre-industrial state currently appears to be feasible only over a timeframe of thousands of years. Current efforts are instead aimed at mitigating (meaning limiting) climate change. Mitigation is strived for through the combination of many different things. See Climate change mitigation for details. References
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Index 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90 91, 92, 93, 94, 95 |
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Emissions due to land-use
Over the last three decades of the twentieth century, gross domestic product per capita and population growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions.[83] CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change.[84][85]:71 Emissions can be attributed to different regions. Attribution of emissions due to land-use change is a controversial issue.[86][87]:289
Are CO2 emissions continuing to rise due to land-use change or not? If yes, what is exactly controversial? I don't have access to ref 87, but 86 it is a very old one (SAR, 1995). I think this needs some clarification. --Hiperfelix (talk) 22:49, 8 February 2016 (UTC)
- Data on CO2 emissions due to land use change are, to put it mildly, less robust than might be considered ideal. Within the field it's only controversial in the sense of "we're still trying to figure out the details." If you're a journalist trying to write an attention-grabbing headline you might well cast that as "controversial." But we don't write that way in Wikipedia. Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 03:03, 14 February 2016 (UTC)
- I'm just trying to translate the article to Spanish. In promoting it to FA a user point out this apparently incoherence. Are estimates of emissions due to land-use change controversial? --Hiperfelix (talk) 01:57, 15 February 2016 (UTC)
- A better way to put it would be "Attributions of emissions due to land-use change are subject to considerable uncertainty." The word "controversial" implies disagreement amongst strongly-held positions, rather than the ordinary progress of research into a topic where much remains to be learned. Good luck with your translation -- it can be quite difficult to convey shades of meaning. Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 02:29, 15 February 2016 (UTC)
"Many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented over decades to millennia."
I thought it was the rate of change that was unprecedented? The earth was 14 degrees warmer millions of years ago. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:All_palaeotemps.png
- Note "millenia" means thousands of years, not millions. (See millenium.) Perhaps we should use plainer language; if the word is confusing to people, that's not good. So thanks for pointing this out. Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 00:39, 22 February 2016 (UTC)
Units
See WP:NOTAFORUM and follow the advice therein. |
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The following discussion has been closed. Please do not modify it. |
Why is parts per million (ppm) used for CO2 concentration? It is not an SI unit. Biscuittin (talk) 23:22, 28 February 2016 (UTC)
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Semi-protected edit request on 30 March 2016 to GLOBAL WARMING
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What to add: "Furthermore, when examining the environmental history of global warming there is clear indication that globalization has greatly impacted the change in climate that we see today. Hunt (2015) states, “Nothing highlights the consequential nature of globalization like the prospect of worldwide climate change.” While some contend that the conversation about global warming has created a unification of the nations of the world, it has also created dissension. Hunt (2015) explains, “Rather than evoking a concerted international response, this threat has instead created divisions. While some saw global warming as pervasive and alarming, others engaged in denial.” The lack of agreement between nations about the validity of global warming posing as a threat has made it increasingly difficult to respond to the root of this problem at a global level.
The correlation between the decrease in the population of the poor and the increase in C02 emissions in developing countries presents another problem. As undeveloped nations strive for wealth in order to support their population and compete with developed nations, their C02 emissions continue to rise. Hunt (2015) states, “For countries in the developing category, the policy problem was more acute- and the potential implications for global warming were deeply worrisome. Giving high priority to economic development in order to pull substantial parts of the population out of poverty meant rising per capita levels of CO2 production and the populous countries such as India and China a large and growing addition to the total global CO2 production. Developing countries were further constrained by limited capital available to invest in renewable energy production and in conservation.” The consequence of the efforts to eliminate global poverty is the release of additional C02 emissions that aid in global warming. Maintaining a population of the poor limits C02 emissions over the short-term, but does not allow proper economic development in order to fund renewable resource projects. Given the financial and social hardships that many undeveloped nations face, protecting the environment over the long-term seems unfeasible and trivial when compared to the pervasive social problems that are unable to be properly addressed."
Hunt, M. H. (2015) The World Transformed 1945 to the Present. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
Reason for addition:
I want to contribute to this page because I feel that information about the impact of globalization on global warming, that Hunt discusses, is not addressed. The page adequately discusses how nations have come together to combat global warming but does not touch upon the division that this conversation has caused. Also, this page fails to mention anything about the correlation between the decrease in the population of the poor and the increase in CO2 emissions in developing countries.
Chrisw29 (talk) 21:56, 30 March 2016 (UTC)
Not done: please establish a consensus for this alteration before using the
{{edit semi-protected}}
template. — JJMC89 (T·C) 08:36, 2 April 2016 (UTC)
Average temperature of the Earth's climate system
The article starts with the assertion ″Global warming and climate change are terms for the observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system″. What is the average temperature of the Earth's climate system in degrees Celsius (°C) or degree Fahrenheit (°F)? Given that the overall rise of this average temperature of the Earth's climate system (of how much degrees?) is the argument for the existence of this article about Global Warming (i.e. since the end of the Little Ice Age!), this number is essential but missing.
--Handwerker (talk) 16:27, 2 April 2016 (UTC)
- Read beyond the intro; the actual temperature changes (not easily summarized in a single sentence) are discussed in the very first section.— Gorthian (talk) 18:02, 2 April 2016 (UTC)
- Sorry, but the average temperature as the reference value for an average global temperature rise is not mentioned there. If a temperature rise from 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) or 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) can be calculated, as a reader of this article I would like to know about which average temperature we are talking exactly. --Handwerker (talk) 13:54, 3 April 2016 (UTC)
- Yeah, we need to give the baseline period for the anomaly. As it is the reader doesn't know if the rise is from pre-industrial conditions or the 20th century average or whatever else. Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 15:23, 3 April 2016 (UTC)
- Sorry, but the average temperature as the reference value for an average global temperature rise is not mentioned there. If a temperature rise from 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) or 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) can be calculated, as a reader of this article I would like to know about which average temperature we are talking exactly. --Handwerker (talk) 13:54, 3 April 2016 (UTC)
- The average surface air temperature for the Earth was estimated by Jones et al. (1999) to be 14 degC, based mostly on observations from 1961-1990. This could be worked into the article as you think it would help.
Jones, P.D., New, M., Parker, D.E., Martin, S. and Rigor, I.G., 1999: Surface air temperature and its variations over the last 150 years. Reviews of Geophysics 37, 173-199, doi:10.1029/1999RG900002 [4]
Global warming vs. climate change
The term do not exactly describe the same phenomena. For example, Nasa write: "Global warming refers to surface temperature increases, while climate change includes global warming and everything else that increasing greenhouse gas amounts will affect." I suggest to, at least briefly, discuss these terms in the article. There have also been arguments that the term climate change downplays the real observations towards an ever-warmer planet in the long term. This could also be discussed here. 90.184.23.200 (talk) 05:25, 4 May 2016 (UTC)
- Which is why our article explicitly discusses the difference William M. Connolley (talk) 08:12, 4 May 2016 (UTC)
So the effect that is happening to the planet is climate change not global warming,climate change has contributed to global warming..is it so?T.B Man-G (talk) 10:09, 14 June 2016 (UTC)
Broken Citation
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- 178 is a broken link (it appears the college website restructured). There is a copy here: http://www.ocean3d.org/eas-4300/lectures-2011/Deutsch_sci_11.pdf But it appears it is a bootleg? Which is unfortunate, as it supports a nice little tidbit. Please change the link on the citation from the broken one to this new one, if it is an acceptable replacement. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 66.250.143.159 (talk) 13:50, 22 May 2016 (UTC)
- Found a copy hosted by the second author and used that URL. Thanks for the alert! — Gorthian (talk) 17:37, 22 May 2016 (UTC)
Temp conversion error?
I hope i am doing this right. Just passing through, but under section "Initial causes of temperature changes (external forcings)" in the section "Greenhouse gasses", the following line exists:
On Earth, naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F).
33 Celsius is not 59 Farenheit. I assume its a typo? That should probably be corrected. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 71.90.209.64 (talk) 03:31, 15 June 2016 (UTC)
- A temperature reading of 33 Celsius is not equal to a temperature reading of 59 F, but a temperature difference of 33 C is equal to a temperature difference of about 59 F. Example: A temperature of 10 C corresponds to a temperature of 50 F. Likewise a temperature of 43 C corresponds to a temperature of 109.4 F. The difference between the two is (43 - 10) = 33 in Celsius, or (109.4 - 50) = 59.4 in Fahrenheit. Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 04:02, 15 June 2016 (UTC)
- The wording allowed for some confusion. Changed to:
On Earth, naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse gases have a mean increase in temperature of about 33 °C (59 °F).
- Not an improvement. GHGs have a warming effect. They don't have a temperature increase. The (near surface) air temperatures have an increase. TimOsborn (talk) 23:42, 21 June 2016 (UTC)
- Tim is right. The proposed wording is inaccurate, and doesn't even make physical sense. Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 00:03, 22 June 2016 (UTC)
- Not an improvement. GHGs have a warming effect. They don't have a temperature increase. The (near surface) air temperatures have an increase. TimOsborn (talk) 23:42, 21 June 2016 (UTC)
- Okay, but the issue remains. It implies a temperature, not a temperature difference. We still need something better. Suggestions? --A D Monroe III (talk) 00:05, 22 June 2016 (UTC)
- I'm missing something, because I don't understand how the words "a mean warming effect" imply a temperature. Can you explain so that I can see where the confusion lies? Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 00:34, 22 June 2016 (UTC)
- Okay, but the issue remains. It implies a temperature, not a temperature difference. We still need something better. Suggestions? --A D Monroe III (talk) 00:05, 22 June 2016 (UTC)
Semi-protected edit request on 26 June 2016
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under the heading "Discourse about global warming" subheading "Scientific discussion", please change "Nearly all scientists agree that humans are contributing to observed climate change" to "Most scientists agree that humans are contributing to observed climate change" because the latter is how it is phrased in the citation used (citation number 89, page 2, beginning of second paragraph). Wikipedia should not make a stronger statement than is supported by its citations.
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