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In 2019 the [[OECD]] recommended that adaptation efforts be increased.<ref>OECD (2019), page 38</ref> An international conference on local actions was held, and work on 12 regional adaptation plans continued.<ref>{{cite news|date=25 April 2019|title=1st International Conference on Local Climate Action|url=http://www.iklimin.org/en/english-1st-international-conference-on-local-climate-action/}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.dailysabah.com/turkey/2019/07/13/turkey-steps-up-to-the-plate-in-fight-for-environment|title=Turkey steps up to the plate in fight for environment|website=DailySabah|access-date=2019-07-20}}</ref> Protection of water resources and soil quality have been considered.<ref>{{cite web |title=Turkey's National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan |url=http://www.dsi.gov.tr/docs/iklim-degisikligi/turkeys-national-climate-change-adaptation-strategy-and-action-plan.pdf |website=General Directorate of Environmental Management, Department of Climate Change, August 2012, Ankara (2nd edition) |publisher=[[Ministry of Environment and Urban Planning (Turkey)]] |accessdate=1 October 2018}}</ref> However, Turkey has yet to submit a National Adaptation Plan to the [[UNFCCC]].<ref name="CarbonBrief">{{cite web |title=The Carbon Brief Profile: Turkey |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/carbon-brief-profile-turkey |website=Carbon Brief |accessdate=1 October 2018}}</ref> However, Turkey has a determined contribution at national level to fight against climate change. The main requirements for adaptation to climate change in Turkey are stipulated in the ninth (2007-2013) and tenth (2014-2018) development plans. To do this, various studies have been carried out to strengthen the capacity of national and regional institutions to respond to the impacts of climate change. The Ministry of Environment and Urbanization as the focal point coordinates activities to combat climate change in Turkey<ref>{{cite web |first1=Turkey |title=Turkey |url=https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/countries-regions/countries/turkey |website=Climate ADAPT |publisher=Climate ADAPT |access-date=30.11.2020}}</ref>.
In 2019 the [[OECD]] recommended that adaptation efforts be increased.<ref>OECD (2019), page 38</ref> An international conference on local actions was held, and work on 12 regional adaptation plans continued.<ref>{{cite news|date=25 April 2019|title=1st International Conference on Local Climate Action|url=http://www.iklimin.org/en/english-1st-international-conference-on-local-climate-action/}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.dailysabah.com/turkey/2019/07/13/turkey-steps-up-to-the-plate-in-fight-for-environment|title=Turkey steps up to the plate in fight for environment|website=DailySabah|access-date=2019-07-20}}</ref> Protection of water resources and soil quality have been considered.<ref>{{cite web |title=Turkey's National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan |url=http://www.dsi.gov.tr/docs/iklim-degisikligi/turkeys-national-climate-change-adaptation-strategy-and-action-plan.pdf |website=General Directorate of Environmental Management, Department of Climate Change, August 2012, Ankara (2nd edition) |publisher=[[Ministry of Environment and Urban Planning (Turkey)]] |accessdate=1 October 2018}}</ref> However, Turkey has yet to submit a National Adaptation Plan to the [[UNFCCC]].<ref name="CarbonBrief">{{cite web |title=The Carbon Brief Profile: Turkey |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/carbon-brief-profile-turkey |website=Carbon Brief |accessdate=1 October 2018}}</ref> However, Turkey has a determined contribution at national level to fight against climate change. The main requirements for adaptation to climate change in Turkey are stipulated in the ninth (2007-2013) and tenth (2014-2018) development plans. To do this, various studies have been carried out to strengthen the capacity of national and regional institutions to respond to the impacts of climate change. The Ministry of Environment and Urbanization as the focal point coordinates activities to combat climate change in Turkey<ref>{{cite web |first1=Turkey |title=Turkey |url=https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/countries-regions/countries/turkey |website=Climate ADAPT |publisher=Climate ADAPT |access-date=30.11.2020}}</ref>.
The National Strategy on Climate Change (2010 / 2011-2020), developed under the coordination of the Ministry of the Environment and Urbanization, through an effective work process with the participation of public institutions, establishments of the private sector, non-governmental organizations and universities, was approved by the Superior Planning Council of the Primeministry on May 3, 2010.<ref>{{cite web |first1=Turkey |title=Turkey |url=https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/countries-regions/countries/turkey |website=Climate ADAPT |publisher=Climate ADAPT |access-date=30.11.2020}}</ref>.This national strategy and action plan for adaptation to climate change focus on five important areas which are: Water resources management, Agricultural sector, and food security, Ecosystem services, biodiversity and forestry, natural disaster risk, and public health. They are supported by technical and scientific studies and participatory processes<ref>{{cite web |first1=UNDRR |title=Turkey: National climate change adaptation strategy and action plan (2011-2023) |url=https://www.preventionweb.net/english/policies/v.php?id=58369&cid=177 |website=PreventionWeb |publisher=PreventionWeb |access-date=30.11.2020}}</ref>.
The National Strategy on Climate Change (2010 / 2011-2020), developed under the coordination of the Ministry of the Environment and Urbanization, through an effective work process with the participation of public institutions, establishments of the private sector, non-governmental organizations and universities, was approved by the Superior Planning Council of the Primeministry on May 3, 2010.<ref>{{cite web |first1=Turkey |title=Turkey |url=https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/countries-regions/countries/turkey |website=Climate ADAPT |publisher=Climate ADAPT |access-date=30.11.2020}}</ref>.This national strategy and action plan for adaptation to climate change focus on five important areas which are: Water resources management, Agricultural sector, and food security, Ecosystem services, biodiversity and forestry, natural disaster risk, and public health. They are supported by technical and scientific studies and participatory processes<ref>{{cite web |first1=UNDRR |title=Turkey: National climate change adaptation strategy and action plan (2011-2023) |url=https://www.preventionweb.net/english/policies/v.php?id=58369&cid=177 |website=PreventionWeb |publisher=PreventionWeb |access-date=30.11.2020}}</ref>.

National adaptation measures continue their growing progress since the publication of Turkey's sixth national communication in 2016.
In its National Adaptation Policies and Strategies, progress has been made at the national level, in local administrations and in different sectors. Indeed, the regulation on strategic environmental assessment (SEA) came into force on April 8, 2017. In the strategic plans for the periods between 2013 and 2017 and between 2018 and 2022 of the Ministry of the Environment and Urbanization , climate change mitigation and adaptation activities are among the main strategic objectives, assisting municipalities and district authorities in their studies and carrying out various capacity building and support activities in adaptation to change climate. While private and voluntary sector organizations make significant contributions to studies on adaptation to climate change, provinces and regions have recognized the need for adaptation and have made investments to support adaptation initiatives.{{sfnp|Seventh communication|2019|p=161}}

As part of capacity building, education and information dissemination, projects such as the project “Strengthening joint efforts required for climate action” were implemented in 2017. Also, thanks a grant program of 37 other projects supports the Ministry of the Environment and Urbanization with a vast training program, communication with climate-related stakeholders, awareness-raising activities as well as local actions on climate change in terms of better response to climate problems are being achieved. For example, a “Climate Change Awareness Project” was carried out by Yıldırım Beyazıt University between 2015 and 2017 in favor of students and teachers of primary and secondary schools operating within the Ministry of Education.{{sfnp|Seventh communication|2019|p=161}}


== Society and culture ==
== Society and culture ==

Revision as of 22:54, 30 November 2020

This article is about the effects of global warming on the Eurasian country and adaptation to it's. For gases contributes to global warming, and their mitigation, see Greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey.
Köppen–Geiger climate classification map for Turkey
Flash floods are predicted to become more frequent as here in Sinop
but the Büyük Menderes River, full in November 2007, may halve its average flow by 2100.
The glacier on Mount Ararat will soon be gone
and anchovies may no longer swim to Turkish waters.
Zonguldak: Turkey's first coal mining region would need help to give up.
There is hope: trees in the northeast are being helped by Anatolian reforestation.

Climate change in Turkey is leading to a rise in annual temperatures as well as maximum temperatures.[1][2] Turkey is one of the countries which is being most affected by climate change.[3][4] Turkey's weather is becoming more extreme.[5]

Greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey are 1% of the global total[6] and are forecast to rise substantially[7] because the energy policy of Turkey is to heavily subsidize coal in Turkey.[8] Turkey is one of the few countries that has signed but not ratified the Paris Agreement, in other words it is a signatory but not one of the parties to the agreement.[9]

Greenhouse gas emissions

Main article: Greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey
Some of the sector that contribute to Greenhouse emission of gas in Turkey

The greenhouse gases emitted by Turkey are not overlooked. The most recent available data compiled by the International Energy Agency shows Turkey is among the 20 countries which emitted the most carbon dioxide in 2018. It is ranked as the 15th largest emitter of total CO2 (0, 42 GT) and 16th largest emitter of CO2 per capita (5.21T)[10]. Turkey emits about 500 Mt CO2eq gross each year, about 6 tons per person.[11] Almost three quarters is from the energy sector,[11] the largest source being Turkey's coal-fired power stations.[12] Despite the country being one of the largest emitters of CO2 in the atmosphere, Turkey's commitment is not in line with the objective of the Paris agreement to reduce heating to the rate of 2°C even less than 1 , 5°C. If all countries like Turkey refused to commit, the heating could even exceed 4°C.[13] Climate Action Tracker (CAT) predicts a reduction in emissions during the Covid-19 pandemic which will have only a limited impact. Emissions will resume their course after the plague and reach 40% to 70% by 2030 from the current level[14].

Effects

Turkey is forecast to be more severely affected than many other countries.[15][16] The effects will vary considerably across the regions of the country.[17] Agriculture and food production will be greatly affected in the second half of the 21st century after the 2030s. Irrigated production in particular will decline as water stress increases. A significant decline in agricultural production is transmitted throughout the economy and reduces national welfare. The impact on nature and health will not be outdone.[18]

Weather

The weather is becoming more extreme.[5] During the 21st century temperatures are forecast to rise by 2-3 °C on average and precipitation to significantly reduce.[19] However, as well as more droughts more floods are predicted, due to rain falling instead of snow.[20] The worst case is a 7 degree rise by 2100.[21]

Health

Climate change may impact health in Turkey, for example due to increased heatwaves.[22]

Another effect that might occur as a result of climate change is the floods due to sudden rains. According to the data of international disaster database (EM-DAT), 1,350 people died because of the floods occurred between 1970 and 2014 in Turkey and about 2 million people were affected by these floods.[16]

The 2011 National Action Plan on Climate Change revealed that the average annual temperature is estimated to rise by 2.5 °C to 4 °C in the next few years.[23][24]

Wildfires

Wildfires have increased[25] due to climate change.[26]

Cities

Urban heatwaves,[27] droughts,[28] storms,[29] and flooding,[30] may increase.[31] Sea level rise is forecast to affect city infrastructure, for example Istanbul Kadıkoy metro station is threatened with flooding.[20] Xeriscaping of green spaces has been suggested,[32] and Istanbul has a climate change action plan.[33] However, according to a 2018 study by Trakya University more local climate change action plans need to be prepared urgently.[34]

Water

Glaciers in Turkey including the glaciers on Mount Ararat are retreating.[35] According to Professor Barış Karapınar, water is lost through evaporation due to old-fashioned irrigation techniques used by the Southeastern Anatolia Project, increasing the risk of severe water shortage.[36] Reduced precipitation[37] and hydroelectricity in Turkey is forecast.[38] Floods in 2020 caused billions of lira in damages.[39] Climate models predict that extreme weather events will increase in the Mediterranean.[40]

Agriculture

Turkish Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Industry

Like many sectors, effects of climate change are observed by concentration of GHGs. In 2017, the total value of emissions calculated for the agricultural sector for the Republic of Turkey represents 14.7% of the total value of emissions (62.5 Mt CO2 eq), including the sector Land use, change of use land and forestry (LULUCF); and 11.9% of all issues outside the LULUCF sector.[41] Unless global emissions are greatly reduced agriculture in Turkey, such as wheat,[42][43] is expected to be severely affected after the late 2030s especially in areas with rain fed agriculture.[44] Arid and semi-arid areas are at risk of desertification.[4] Irrigated agriculture will decline as water stress increases and increasing food imports will hit Turkey's trade balance.[44] Damage to agriculture [45] is predicted to greatly increase.[44] Pine nut production has been severely reduced.[46]

Fishing

The warming of Lake Van is reducing oxygen for pearl mullet.[47] According to the report of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, fishing-oriented sectors in the Black Sea Region of Turkey are argued to be sensitive to the impacts of climate change.[48]

Politics

According to the Eleventh Development Plan (2019-2023): "It is seen that climate change accelerating due to high greenhouse gas emissions causes natural disasters and poses a serious threat to humanity." and "International climate change negotiations will be conducted within the framework of the Intended National Contribution with the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, and within the scope of national conditions, climate change will be tackled in sectors causing greenhouse gas emissions and the resilience of the economy and society to climate risks will be increased by capacity building for adaptation to climate change."[49]

Turkey, like neighbouring Iran, is one of the few countries that has signed but not ratified the Paris Agreement, in other words it is a signatory but not one of the parties to the agreement.[9] The main opposition Republican People's Party has called for the agreement to be ratified.[50][51]

Similarly Turkey has signed but not ratified the Kigali Amendment.[52] It has no carbon tax or emissions trading scheme, therefore carbon capture and storage is not used as it is not economically viable.[53] Also "given the fact that a new coal-fired power plant has a minimum of 40 years of economic life, Turkey's coal rush could create an inextricable carbon lock-in."[15]

Economics

Although it is very difficult to determine with certainty the future economic impacts of climate change, the studies' previsions indicate enormous losses if adequate solutions are not put in place. So, Millions of dollars could be lost.[54] In fact, evidence already exists at this level. Recently, 09 October 2020, the expert on climate change, Murat Türkeş told that in daily Hürriyet: “We have the statistics, climate change and global warming have hit us. We face a loss of millions of dollars. Even new great damages await,”. Loss in Gross Domestic Product per capita by 2100 is forecast to be less than 1% for slight global warming (RCP2.6 Scenario) but almost 8% for severe global warming (RCP8.5 Scenario).[55]

Education

The arts are raising awareness of climate change, and education is supported by the EU.[56][57]

Misunderstandings about climate change

Individual action on climate change is not properly understood (in a survey of primary school teachers many erroneously prioritised using less cosmetics) and neither are government choices on climate change mitigation (in the same survey only a minority correctly prioritised curbing fossil fuel use).[58] Future warming of seawater by Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant is wrongly thought by some to be relevant to climate change,[17] and few know that geothermal power in Turkey might emit considerable CO2.[59]

Adaptation

In 2019 the OECD recommended that adaptation efforts be increased.[60] An international conference on local actions was held, and work on 12 regional adaptation plans continued.[61][62] Protection of water resources and soil quality have been considered.[63] However, Turkey has yet to submit a National Adaptation Plan to the UNFCCC.[64] However, Turkey has a determined contribution at national level to fight against climate change. The main requirements for adaptation to climate change in Turkey are stipulated in the ninth (2007-2013) and tenth (2014-2018) development plans. To do this, various studies have been carried out to strengthen the capacity of national and regional institutions to respond to the impacts of climate change. The Ministry of Environment and Urbanization as the focal point coordinates activities to combat climate change in Turkey[65]. The National Strategy on Climate Change (2010 / 2011-2020), developed under the coordination of the Ministry of the Environment and Urbanization, through an effective work process with the participation of public institutions, establishments of the private sector, non-governmental organizations and universities, was approved by the Superior Planning Council of the Primeministry on May 3, 2010.[66].This national strategy and action plan for adaptation to climate change focus on five important areas which are: Water resources management, Agricultural sector, and food security, Ecosystem services, biodiversity and forestry, natural disaster risk, and public health. They are supported by technical and scientific studies and participatory processes[67].

National adaptation measures continue their growing progress since the publication of Turkey's sixth national communication in 2016. In its National Adaptation Policies and Strategies, progress has been made at the national level, in local administrations and in different sectors. Indeed, the regulation on strategic environmental assessment (SEA) came into force on April 8, 2017. In the strategic plans for the periods between 2013 and 2017 and between 2018 and 2022 of the Ministry of the Environment and Urbanization , climate change mitigation and adaptation activities are among the main strategic objectives, assisting municipalities and district authorities in their studies and carrying out various capacity building and support activities in adaptation to change climate. While private and voluntary sector organizations make significant contributions to studies on adaptation to climate change, provinces and regions have recognized the need for adaptation and have made investments to support adaptation initiatives.[68]

As part of capacity building, education and information dissemination, projects such as the project “Strengthening joint efforts required for climate action” were implemented in 2017. Also, thanks a grant program of 37 other projects supports the Ministry of the Environment and Urbanization with a vast training program, communication with climate-related stakeholders, awareness-raising activities as well as local actions on climate change in terms of better response to climate problems are being achieved. For example, a “Climate Change Awareness Project” was carried out by Yıldırım Beyazıt University between 2015 and 2017 in favor of students and teachers of primary and secondary schools operating within the Ministry of Education.[68]

Society and culture

Media coverage

In the 1990s independent media outlet Açık Radyo (Open Radio) was one of the first to cover climate change, and its founder Ömer Madra(in Turkish) emphasises "The three Y’s in the fight on climate change: Yerel (local) Yatay (horizontal, not vertical) and Yavaş (slow, no resort to violence)."[69] İklim Haber is another active source for the coverage of climate change issues for the readers in Turkey. They describe their operations as "focusing on latest developments from the areas of climate science, climate policy, and the economy of climate change by trying to publish the news objectively and data-oriented." [70]

Public perception of climate change in Turkey

In 2018, Turkish climate news hub İklim Haber and Turkey’s leading polling company Konda Research asserted that: "there is a wide public consensus about climate change (86%) and the majority (%75) of the population say that they are concerned about climate change. The research points out that Turkey’s energy sources of preference are solar and wind energy by a large margin." in the report of "Climate Change Perceptions and Energy Preferences in Turkey".[71] According to the latest report written in Turkish and prepared by another collaboration of İklim Haber and Konda Research in 2020, 51,5% of the public opinion believe that the climate crisis is a bigger threat than the Coronavirus crisis. Also, 71,4% of the public opinion acknowledge that current climate crisis is a result of human activities.[72]

Protests

In 2019 some Turkish schoolchildren joined the School strike for climate.[73] Turkey's branch of Extinction Rebellion demonstrated for Turkey to ratify the Paris Agreement.[74]

Religion

Hagia Sophia. built as the new Cathedral of Constantinople by the Emperor Justinian in 537 AD

Muslim environmentalists and academics quote the Quran in support of their environmentalism.[75] In Istanbul in 2015, Islamic leaders urged the world's 1.6 billion Muslims to help defeat climate change.[76][77]

History

Pre-modern climate change

There were 2 significant periods of climate change in the Bronze Age.[78]

Modern age

According to Prof. Dr. Murat Türkeş, a member of the board of Boğaziçi University’s Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies, modern climate change in Turkey started in the 1970s.[79]

Present and future Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps

Main article: Köppen climate classification
Köppen–Geiger climate classification map for Turkey (1980-2016)
Köppen–Geiger climate classification map for Turkey (2071-2100)

Sources

  • Şahin, Ümit; Türkkan, Seçil (January 2019). "Turkey's Climate Policies Have Reached a Deadlock: It Takes Courage to Resolve It" (PDF). saha. Vol. Special Issue 2. pp. 24–30. ISSN 2149-7885.

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