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2024 Salvadoran general election

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2024 Salvadoran general election

  • 4 February 2024 (presidential and legislative)
  • 3 March 2024 (PARLACEN and municipal)
Opinion polls
Registered6,138,526[1]
Presidential election
← 2019
2029 →
 
Party NI ARENA FMLN

Incumbent President

Nayib Bukele
Nuevas Ideas



Legislative election
← 2021
2027 →

All 84 seats in the Legislative Assembly
43 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
NI Xavier Zablah Bukele 56
ARENA Carlos García Saade 11
GANA Nelson Guardado 5
FMLN Óscar Ortiz 4
PCN Manuel Rodríguez 2
PDC Rodolfo Parker 1
NT Andy Failer 1
V Josué Alvarado 1
Independents 3
Incumbent President of the Legislative Assembly
Ernesto Castro
Nuevas Ideas

General elections will be held in El Salvador in February and March 2024. In the first round on 4 February 2024, Salvadorans will elect the president, vice president, and all 84 deputies of the Legislative Assembly. In the second round on 3 March 2024, they will elect all 20 deputies to the Central American Parliament (PARLACEN)[a] and all 262 mayors of the country's municipalities. It will be the first time that presidential and legislative elections occur concurrently since the 1994 general election.

Prior to the election, controversy arose when incumbent President Nayib Bukele announced his re-election campaign on 15 September 2022. While the country's constitution prohibits immediate re-election, in September 2021, the Supreme Court of Justice ruled that the president could run for immediate reelection. Various journalists and politicians have condemned Bukele's reelection bid as illegal and authoritarian, while many Salvadorans—both inside and outside the country—support his campaign.

In October 2022, the Legislative Assembly passed a law which would allow Salvadoran expatriates to vote in the election. Several opposition politicians have criticized the decision, claiming that it would lead to electoral fraud. In December 2022, Bukele suggested reducing the number of municipalities from 262 to 50, which has been criticized by lawyers, economists, and opposition politicians as gerrymandering and an attempt to consolidate the government's power. In February 2023, Ernesto Castro, the president of the Legislative Assembly, announced that Nuevas Ideas deputies were formally considering reducing the number of municipalities from 262 to 50 and the number of seats in the Legislative Assembly from 84 to 64.

Twelve political parties have been allowed by the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) to participate in the election. As of June 2024, Bukele is the only person to declare his candidacy for the presidency; he is running under the banner of the center-right Nuevas Ideas political party. Both the right-wing Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) and the left-wing Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN), which formerly dominated Salvadoran politics in a two-party system, have declared that they will participate in the election and that they will not form a coalition with each other. Current opinion polls indicate significant leads for Nuevas Ideas in the presidential, legislative, and municipal races.

Electoral system

Election procedure

General elections are scheduled to be held in El Salvador in 2024, five years after the 2019 presidential election and three years after the 2021 legislative election.[3][4] The president, vice president, 84 deputies of the Legislative Assembly, 20 deputies of the Central American Parliament (PARLACEN), and 262 mayors of the country's municipalities will be elected through a popular vote. The constitution of El Salvador mandates that the election will be "free, direct, equal and secret".[5] On 11 August 2022, the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) announced that the elections for the presidency, vice presidency, and the Legislative Assembly will be held on Sunday, 4 February 2024, and that the elections for the 262 municipalities and the Central American Parliament will be held on Sunday, 3 March 2024.[6]

In the presidential election, a candidate needs an absolute majority (50% + 1) to be declared the winner of the election. If no candidate receives an absolute majority, a second round between the two candidates with the most valid votes will occur within thirty days of the first round.

Mayors, deputies of the Legislative Assembly, and deputies of the Central American Parliament are elected by open-list proportional representation. The 262 mayors are elected in one constituency each, the 84 deputies of the Legislative Assembly are elected in 14 constituencies for the 14 departments of El Salvador, and the 20 deputies of the Central American Parliament are elected from one nationwide constituency.[5][7]

Presidential and vice presidential candidates must be at least 30 years old, legislative candidates must be at least 25 years old, and municipal candidates must be at least 21 years old. All candidates must be Salvadoran citizens by birth.[8] Per article 38 of the Law of Political Parties (Ley de Partidos Políticos), at least 30 percent of a party's total candidates for the legislative, municipal, and PARLACEN elections must be women.[9]

The locations of voting centers will be finalized by the Supreme Electoral Court by 6 March 2023.[10] Electronic voting is scheduled to begin in January 2024.[11]

Election financing

In December 2022, TSE magistrate Noel Orellana estimated that it would cost between US$25 and 30 million to finance the expatriate vote for the 2024 election,[12] but later revised the estimate to US$120 million.[13] In February 2023, the TSE announced that the expatriate vote would cost US$70.6 million and the national election would cost US$89 million, for a total cost of US$159.7 million for the 2024 election.[14] In March 2023, the TSE reduced its estimate to US$129.3 million and formally requested that amount from the Legislative Assembly.[15] The Legislative Assembly approved the TSE's request on 15 March 2023,[16] making the 2024 election the most expensive election in Salvadoran history.[17]

Political parties

Political parties must be registered with the Supreme Electoral Court to be able to participate in the elections. The TSE mandated that the parties announce their internal party leadership elections and 2024 primary elections by 5 March 2023,[18] and that they must hold them by 5 July 2023.[19] Twelve political parties are eligible to participate, an increase of two from 2021. The twelve political parties are:[19][20][21]

Additionally, two political movements, Citizen Power (PC) and Solidarity Force (FS), attempted to register with the TSE to gain political party status and to run in the 2024 election,[22][23] but both parties failed to register before the 5 March deadline.[24][25]

Registered voters

Salvadoran citizens over the age of 18 living in El Salvador have until 7 August 2023 to register to vote, while those living outside of the country have until 5 November 2023 to register.[26] On 1 March 2023, Guillermo Wellman, a magistrate of the Supreme Electoral Court, stated that individuals arrested during the country's 2022–23 gang crackdown were ineligible to vote.[27] According to a poll conduced by La Prensa Gráfica in February 2023, around 68 percent of Salvadorans stated they definitely intended to vote in the 2024 election.[28]

The following table lists the number of registered voters for the 2024 election in all fourteen departments and outside of the country, as well as the number of seats in the Legislative Assembly and number of municipalities assigned to each department. The figures, as published by the Supreme Electoral Court, are accurate as of 13 February 2023.[29]

A labeled map of the fourteen departments of El Salvador.
Department Voters Seats in LA Municipalities
San Salvador 1,476,395 24 19
La Libertad 670,809 10 22
Santa Ana 511,719 7 13
San Miguel 433,932 6 20
Sonsonate 404,835 6 16
Usulután 315,844 5 23
Ahuachapán 297,588 4 12
La Paz 282,021 4 22
La Unión 248,256 3 18
Cuscatlán 211,250 3 16
Chalatenango 193,132 3 33
Morazán 168,170 3 26
San Vicente 151,253 3 13
Cabañas 143,155 3 9
Expatriate vote 626,654
Total 6,135,013 84 262

Political background

Presidency of Nayib Bukele

Nayib Bukele speaking on 1 June 2019, the day of his inauguration.

Nayib Bukele, former mayor of San Salvador won the 2019 presidential election with 53 percent of the vote. He ran under the banner of the Grand Alliance for National Unity (GANA), making him the first president since José Napoleón Duarte (1984–1989) to not be a member of one of the country's two largest political parties (ARENA and FMLN).[30][31][32] Bukele's election is considered to be one of the most impactful events in Salvadoran political history, as many politicians and journalists have described it as breaking the country's two-party system.[32][33][34]

Throughout his presidency, Bukele's critics have called his governance authoritarian and autocratic.[35][36][37] His COVID-19 lockdowns were criticized when more than 4,200 people were arrested by the National Civil Police (PNC).[38] In February 2020, he was criticized for sending 40 soldiers into the Legislative Assembly in what critics called an attempted coup d'état.[39] In September 2020, El Faro accused Bukele of negotiating with criminal gangs in the country, notably MS-13 and 18th Street, to lower crime rates. Bukele and his government have denied those accusations.[40][41] The United States government has labeled various Bukele government officials as corrupt.[42]

In the 2021 legislative election, Nuevas Ideas, the political party Bukele established, won supermajorities[4][43] in the legislature, municipalities, and the Central American Parliament.[44][45][46] The 13th session of the Legislative Assembly assumed office on 1 May 2022, and Ernesto Castro was elected as the president of the Legislative Assembly.[47] Following Castro's election, the 64 deputies representing Nuevas Ideas, GANA, the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), and the National Coalition Party (PCN) voted to remove five Supreme Court justices from the constitutional court, including President Óscar Armando Pineda Navas [es], and Attorney General Raúl Melara. New justices and a new attorney general were later appointed by Bukele in what has since been described as a self-coup.[48]

Following a spike in murders in March 2022, Bukele's government began a gang crackdown, referred to as a state of exception and a war against gangs, which has resulted in the reported arrests of 65,291 alleged gang members as of 6 March 2023,[49] and between 90 and 102 deaths in custody as of 2 February 2023.[50] The crackdown has been accused of engaging in arbitrary arrests, torture, and human rights abuses by organizations such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch.[51][52] On 3 January 2023, Minister of Defense René Merino Monroy announced that 496 homicides were registered in 2022—a decrease from 1,147 homicides in 2021. Merino attributed the decrease to the gang crackdown.[53]

Despite controversies and negative press coverage, Bukele remains extremely popular, with approval ratings consistently hovering between 80 and 90 percent.[33][54][55] He is considered to be one the most popular presidents in El Salvador's history,[56] as well as one of the most popular current Latin American leaders.[57]

Presidential re-election controversy

On 3 September 2021, the Supreme Court of Justice ruled that the president of El Salvador is eligible to run for re-election consecutively, discarding a 2014 ruling that required presidents to wait ten years before running for re-election.[58][59] The 2021 court ruling made Bukele eligible to run for president in 2024.[58][60] Despite protests from ARENA and the FMLN, the Supreme Electoral Court accepted the Supreme Court's ruling.[59] The United States embassy to El Salvador was critical of the Supreme Court's ruling, stating that it "undermines democracy".[61]

External video
video icon Bukele's speech celebrating 201 years independence, where he announces he is running for reelection in 2024 (at 34:00)

During a speech on the country's 201st anniversary of independence from Spain on 15 September 2022, Bukele officially announced his re-election campaign. His announcement was criticized by constitutional lawyers, who said his re-election would be unconstitutional and in violation of at least four articles of El Salvador's constitution.[62][63] Four former Latin American presidents—Vicente Fox and Felipe Calderón (Mexico), Óscar Arias (Costa Rica), and Mauricio Macri (Argentina)—criticized Bukele's announcement, stating it violated articles 16, 132, and 152 of the country's constitution.[64] Bukele has been compared to Juan Orlando Hernández in Honduras and Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, who used the Supreme Court and constitutional reforms, respectively, in their own countries to allow themselves to run for reelection.[65] Carlos Araujo, a former 2021 ARENA deputy candidate, stated that there is "no doubt that President Bukele will be re-elected" ("No hay duda que el Presidente Bukele va a ser reelecto"), citing his high approval rating.[66]

If Bukele wins re-election, he would be the first person since Óscar Osorio Hernández (1950–1956) to serve over five years as president of El Salvador, and the first person since Maximiliano Hernández Martínez (1931–1934, 1935–1944) to serve multiple terms as president.[65][67] Additionally, he is the first president since Antonio Saca (2004–2009) to seek re-election.[b][69] According to a poll conducted by Francisco Gavidia University in October 2022, 76 percent of respondents believed that if Bukele were re-elected in 2024, he would not run for a third term in 2029.[70]

In mid-January 2023, TSE magistrate Noel Orellana announced that the court was drafting instructions and procedures regarding immediate presidential re-election. He stated that immediate re-election was a "new topic, something that has not occurred" ("un tema nuevo, es algo que no se ha dado").[71] Vice President Félix Ulloa, who supports Bukele's re-election bid, suggested that Bukele should seek a license or express permission from the Supreme Court six months before the election.[72][73] On 1 March 2023, four of the five members of the Supreme Court's Constitutional Chamber confirmed that presidential re-election is allowed.[74]

Allegations of fraud

In August 2022, Bukele criticized the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation's (FBI) execution of a search warrant on Mar-a-Lago as hypocritical. He tweeted, "What would the US Government say, if OUR police raided the house of one of the main possible contenders of OUR 2024 presidential election?"[75][76][77]

On 18 October 2022, the Legislative Assembly passed the Special Law for the Exercise of Suffrage Abroad (Ley Especial para el Ejercicio del Sufragio en el Extranjero), which allowed Salvadorans living outside of the country to vote electronically in the presidential and legislative elections, but not the municipal or PARLACEN elections.[78][79] The Supreme Electoral Court announced on 17 November 2022 that it would guarantee the right of Salvadorans abroad to vote in the 2024 election.[80][81] According to the TSE, as of December 2022, 613,323 Salvadoran expatriates are eligible to vote in 2024.[82] FMLN politician Rubén Zamora criticized the law, claiming that it was a "farce" ("farsa") and would lead to voter fraud in the 2024 election.[83] Ex-ARENA deputy Carlos Reyes, Vamos (V) deputy Claudia Ortiz, and Nuestro Tiempo (NT) deputy John Wright also claimed that the law would allow the possibility of electoral fraud.[84] Eduardo Escobar, the executive president of Citizen Action, claimed that electronic voting would allow a high risk of manipulation.[85]

In a November 2022 interview on Channel 21 [es], Legislative Assembly president Ernesto Castro rejected the notion that fraud would occur in the expatriate voting process. He said, "the opposition has started to say that there will be fraud, but we don't need to do that because we beat them when they were in control of everything" ("La oposición ha comenzado a decir que habrá fraude, pero nosotros no necesitamos hacer eso porque les ganamos cuando ellos tenían el dominio de todo").[86] On 18 January 2023, the Legislative Assembly passed a resolution to increase the criminal penalty for electoral fraud to 15–20 years in prison, higher than the previous penalty of 4–6 years. Additionally, if the individual was a gang member, the penalty was increased further to 20–30 years imprisonment.[87]

On 16 February 2023, the Legislative Assembly passed a law making it illegal to impede the registration process for electoral candidates. According to the updated penal code, impeding a candidate's registration process is legally considered electoral fraud and will result in 6–20 years imprisonment.[88] Lawyers and electoral experts alleged that the updated law would be used against those who opposed Bukele's re-election campaign; Eduardo Escobar and Ruth Eleonora López, the chief of Cristosal's anti-corruption committee, claimed that it was intimidation and a threat.[89]

In addition to the Unique Identity Document [es] (the primary identity document for Salvadorans), TSE magistrates Julio Olivo and Dora Martínez de Barahona have suggested using biometrics, specifically fingerprinting, to ensure election security.[90][91] The Office for the Defense of Human Rights, a Salvadoran governmental agency, will be an observer for the 2024 elections.[92] In March 2023, Votante, an voter's initiative created by five Salvadoran civil society organizations, petitioned the TSE to allow the United Nations, the Organization of American States, and the European Union to monitor the elections.[93][94][95]

Proposed reduction of municipalities and legislative seats

On 30 December 2022, Bukele tweeted that he believes the country's 262 municipalities should be reduced to only 50, claiming that it was "absurd that 21,000 km2 are divided into 262 municipalities".[96] Claudia Ortiz stated that the reduction could be discussed after the country's 2023 census. Other opposition deputies claimed that the reduction of municipalities could lead to data being manipulated in favor of the government.[97]

Meanwhile, various economists and lawyers claimed that the proposed reduction was an attempt by Bukele to consolidate his power through gerrymandering. Ruth Eleonora López stated that Bukele's proposal "leads to another twist in the concentration of power and centralization of decisions" ("lleva a otra vuelta de tuerca de la concentración de poder y la centralización de decisiones").[98] Eduardo Escobar claimed that the goal was to favor Nuevas Ideas by eliminating votes for opposition candidates, stating that it is "an artificial manipulation of electoral constituencies in order to generate an advantage" ("una manipulación artificial de las circunscripciones electorales a efecto de generar una ventaja").[99][100] Eugenio Chicas, an ex-magistrate of the Supreme Electoral Court, denounced the idea, saying:

Esa es su visión política, su principal instrumento político, incluso, no es tan siquiera su partido Nuevas Ideas o GANA. No, el principal instrumento de dominación política que está utilizando es la Fuerza Armada, es la militarización de la sociedad. Eso aclara la idea que se ha venido denunciando, que es dictadura en proceso de consolidación y una dictadura militar.

That is [Bukele's] political vision, his main political instrument is not even his party Nuevas Ideas or GANA. No, the main instrument of political domination that he is using is the Armed Forces, it is the militarization of society. This clarifies the idea that has been expressed, which is a dictatorship in the process of being consolidated into a military dictatorship.[98][101]

Mario Durán, the mayor of San Salvador, supported Bukele's proposal to reduce the number of municipalities.[102] GANA deputy Guillermo Gallegos also expressed his support, adding that he believed the number of seats in the Legislative Assembly should also be reduced. Gallegos said, "If re-election is possible, we can make all these changes" ("Si se puede la reelección, podemos hacer todos estos cambios").[103] Vice President Félix Ulloa supported reducing the number of seats in the Legislative Assembly, suggesting decreasing it from 84 to 50.[104]

On 20 February 2023, Ernesto Castro confirmed that Nuevas Ideas was officially evaluating a proposal to reduce the number of deputies in the Legislative Assembly from 84 to 64, and the number of municipalities from 252 to 50.[105] Castro stated that the country could function with 64 deputies, and that they propose a reduction to about 50 municipalities.[106][107] The Legislative Assembly has had 84 seats since the 1991 legislative election, when 24 seats were added to the legislature.[108] GANA deputy Numan Salgado supported the proposal and claimed that the country's population would support the reduction in deputies and municipalities.[105] According to a poll conducted by Francisco Gavidia University in February 2023, around 48.5 percent of Salvadorans erroneously believed that El Salvador was already divided into only 50 municipalities.[109]

Claudia Ortiz criticized the announcement, stating the proposed reforms could help Nuevas Ideas form a one-party system. She also argued that the time to make electoral reforms had passed and that the changes would be in violation of the electoral code,[105] referring to Article 291-A, which prohibits electoral reforms up to one year before an election.[110][111] The Legislative Assembly voted to repeal Article 291-A on 15 March 2023.[112] Nuestro Tiempo deputy John Wright described the proposal as "extremely irresponsible" ("extremadamente irresponsable") for occurring within one year of the election.[113]

Presidency

Declared candidates

As of March 2023, only one candidate has officially declared his intent to run for president.

Party Candidate Background Date declared Refs.
Nuevas Ideas
Nuevas Ideas
Nuevas Ideas
Nayib Bukele
Nayib Bukele
Nayib Bukele 43rd President of El Salvador (2019–present)
Mayor of San Salvador (2015–2018)
Mayor of Nuevo Cuscatlán (2012–2015)
15 September 2022
[62][114][115][116]

Potential candidates

  • José Manuel Flores Cornejo, former mayor of Quezaltepeque (2003–2012), former deputy of the Legislative Assembly (2012–2015)[117]
  • Javier Simán, 2019 ARENA presidential pre-candidate; president of the National Association of Private Enterprise (2020–2022); Owner of SIMÁN[118]

Withdrawn candidates

  • Gerardo Awad, 2019 ARENA presidential pre-candidate[119][120]
  • Roy García, General-Secretary of PAIS (2022)[121]

Declined candidates

Parliament

Nuevas Ideas held a majority in the 13th Legislative Assembly; the Grand Alliance for National Unity, Christian Democratic Party, and National Coalition Party supported Nuevas Ideas' government. The opposition consisted of the Nationalist Republican Alliance, the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front, Nuestro Tiempo, and Vamos.[122] Within the Central American Parliament, the fifteen deputies from Nuevas Ideas and Grand Alliance for National Unity belong to the Center-Democratic Integration Group, the four deputies from the Nationalist Republican Alliance and the National Coalition Party belong to the Integrationist Democratic Unity, and the sole Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front deputy belongs to the Parliamentary Group of the Left.[123]

Since the 2021 legislative election, three deputies[124][125][126] and nine mayors[124][127][128] from ARENA have left the party and become independents, and nine mayors from the FMLN have left the party and become independents.[129][130]

Retiring deputies

Three deputies of the legislative assembly have announced that they will not be running for re-election in 2024.

Party Retiring deputy Department Serving since Ref.
Nationalist Republican Alliance Rodrigo Ávila Avilés La Libertad 1 May 2015 [131]
Nationalist Republican Alliance René Alfredo Portillo Cuadra San Salvador 1 May 2015 [132]
Nuestro Tiempo John Tennant Wright Sol San Salvador 1 May 2021 [133]

Electoral campaign

The following table lists the electoral campaigning periods as defined by the Supreme Electoral Court.[134] Additionally, the TSE has stated that it will not regulate campaigning outside of the country.[135]

Election type Campaign period Election date
President and Vice President 3 October 2023 – 31 January 2024 4 February 2024
Legislative Assembly deputies 3 December 2023 – 31 January 2024
PARLACEN deputies 2 January 2023 – 28 February 2024 3 March 2024
Municipal mayors 5 February 2024 – 28 February 2024

Nuevas Ideas

Ernesto Castro has stated that Nuevas Ideas aims to win 70 seats in the Legislative Assembly and that the party does not intend to join a coalition with any other party.[8][136] Estuardo Rodríguez, a Nuevas Ideas deputy in the Legislative Assembly, stated that the party expects to win all 24 legislative seats from the department of San Salvador.[8] On 20 February 2023, in an interview with Telecorporación Salvadoreña's Frente a Frente, Castro announced that he was seeking re-election as a deputy, as were the majority of Nuevas Ideas deputies.[137][136] Mario Durán confirmed in June 2022 that he was running for re-election as mayor of San Salvador.[138]

On 18 February 2023, four Nuevas Ideas deputies—Edgardo Mulato, Alexia Rivas, Caleb Navarro, and Mauricio Ortiz—visited Uniondale, New York to meet Salvadorans from the U.S. states of Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York and to support Bukele's re-election campaign.[139] On 25 February 2023, Castro and sixteen other Nuevas Ideas deputies[c] held an event at a Church of Scientology center in Los Angeles, California. The event promoted Bukele's re-election to Salvadorans in Los Angeles.[141] Eduardo Escobar of Acción Ciudadana claimed the event was illegal according to the constitution's rules about the promotion of candidates.[142] Castro will meet with Salvadorans in Houston, Texas on 18 March 2023.[143]

The party will hold its internal and primary elections on 2 July 2023.[144]

Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA)

In March 2022, political analyst Walter Araujo believed that ARENA, the FMLN, and Vamos would form a coalition to challenge Nuevas Ideas in the presidential election.[145] On 26 October 2022, Carlos García Saade, the president of ARENA, announced that the party would not join an alliance with the FMLN to defeat Bukele in the 2024 election. He stated that joining forces with the FMLN would "deteriorate both parties" ("deteriorar a ambos partidos"), and that he wanted ARENA to be the alternative for Salvadorans who oppose Bukele.[146] Although he ruled out a coalition with the FMLN, he was still open to forming a coalition or an alliance with other parties.[147][148] In December 2022, García Saade stated that ARENA seeked to attain the "maximum number" ("la máxima candidad") of deputies and mayors, but did not specify a clear projection.[8]

The party was scheduled to hold its internal party leadership elections on 19 February 2023,[149] but they were postponed to 26 February 2023 after the party's leadership stated there were problems in the electronic voting system. García Saade stated that ARENA would opt to vote with physical ballots rather than electronic ballots as a result;[150] García Saade was re-elected as the party's president with 2,392 votes.[151] ARENA's primary elections will be held on 18 June 2023.[152][153]

Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN)

In September 2022, FMLN deputy Jaime Guevara stated that the FMLN has not resigned from its participation in the 2024 elections.[154] Following the conclusion of the FMLN's 42nd Ordinary National Convention (XLII Convención Nacional Ordinaria) on 11 December 2022, Óscar Ortiz, the secretary-general of the FMLN, announced that the party would not join any coalition in the 2024 elections with Nuevas Ideas, or ARENA, or GANA, but the party would be open to forming coalitions with other parties.[155][156] He said, "The FMLN is not only alive, but is paving the way for a new journey" ("El FMLN no solo está vivo sino que abre el espacio para una nueva jornada").[157]

The party plans to hold its internal elections in March 2023[18] and its primary elections on 11 June 2023.[158]

Grand Alliance for National Unity (GANA)

Guillermo Gallegos, a deputy of the Legislative Assembly from GANA, stated that the party seeks to increase the amount of seats it has in the Legislative Assembly from five to fifteen. He also stated the party seeks to increase its number of mayors from 34 to over 100.[8]

The party will hold its internal and primary elections on 2 July 2023.[159]

National Coalition Party

According to Manuel Rodríguez, the leader of the National Coalition Party, around 260 people will be running for office within the party.[11] Rodríguez stated that the party seeks to increase the number of deputies in the Legislative Assembly from 3 to 9 and increase the number of mayors from 2 to 33.[160]

The party will hold its internal and primary elections on 5 July 2023.[161]

Christian Democratic Party

The Christian Democratic Party will hold its internal and primary elections on 5 July 2023.[159]

Nuestro Tiempo

After John Wright announced his intention to not run for re-election as a deputy in 2024, four members of the party—Héctor Silva, Erick Iván Ortiz, Andy Failer, and Jeovanny Maravilla—expressed their interest in being elected in Wright's place.[162]

Nuestro Tiempo held its internal elections on 12 March 2023; president Juan Valiente announced his retirement prior to the election and was succeeded by Failer.[163] Its primary elections will be held on 25 June 2023.[164] The party will not participate in the PARLACEN elections.[165]

Vamos

In March 2023, Ortiz announced her intention to be reelected as a deputy of the Legislative Assembly. On 5 March 2023, Vamos formally announced that it will not run a presidential candidate or compete in the PARLACEN elections.[166]

The party will hold its internal and primary elections on 18 June 2023.[166]

Other parties

Roy García, the former leader of the Salvadoran Independent Party, stated that the party sought to win between 20 and 25 deputies in the Legislative Assembly and between 90 and 100 mayors.[8] The party will hold its internal elections on 9 April 2023,[167] but García has claimed that the party will not hold elections and instead participate as a movement in another party, stating that he wants to ally with the Salvadoran Patriotic Fraternity.[168]

The Salvadoran Patriotic Fraternity announced its internal and primary elections on 3 March 2023.[169]

Democratic Change will hold its internal and primary elections on 4 June 2023. The party will not participate in the presidential election.[170]

Salvadoran Democracy failed to announce its internal or primary elections before the 5 March 2023 deadline.[169]

Solidarity Force, although not registered by the TSE as a political party, announced it will hold its internal and primary elections on 2 July 2023.[171] Citizen Power also announced its internal and primary elections, but the TSE disregarded the announcement as invalid as they were not registered to participate in the 2024 election.[172]

Opinion polls

Presidential opinion polls

Presidential election polls
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
NI ARENA FMLN GANA PCN PDC NT V CD Other Not vote Unsure Lead Ref.
La Prensa Gráfica Feb 2023 1,520 54.0 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.8 42.5 52.5 [173]
La Prensa Gráfica 16–21 Nov 2022 1,520 49.3 2.6 1.4 1.1 8.6 9.8 27.2 46.7 [174]
CEC-UFG 27–31 Oct 2022 1,227 66.2 2.2 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 9.8 18.2 48.0 [70]
2019 presidential election 7 Feb 2019 N/A 31.72 4.41 53.10 0.77 21.38 [30]

Polling on Bukele's re-election

According to polling conducted CIESCA and TResearch shortly after Bukele's announcement of re-election campaign, a large majority of Salvadorans support Bukele's re-election bid.[175][176] Additionally, many Salvadoran Americans strongly support Bukele's re-election.[177][178][179]

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
Would support Would not support Undecided Lead Ref.
TResearch 14–16 Feb 2023 1,000 93.9 5.7 0.4 88.2 [180]
La Prensa Gráfica Feb 2023 1,500 68.0 13.0 19.0 55.0 [181]
CEC-UFG 4–8 Feb 2023 1,263 62.2 19.0 18.8 43.2 [182]
TResearch Jan 2023 1,000 92.7 5.9 1.4 86.8 [180]
TResearch Dec 2022 1,000 93.7 4.8 1.5 88.9 [180]
La Prensa Gráfica 16–21 Nov 2022 1,520 64.6 17.9 17.5 46.7 [183]
TResearch Nov 2022 1,000 94.1 4.5 1.4 89.6 [180]
CEC-UFG 27–31 Oct 2022 1,227 74.7 12.8 12.5 61.9 [184]
CEC-UFG 27–31 Oct 2022 1,227 77.2 11.0 11.8 66.2 [184]
TResearch Oct 2022 1,000 94.8 3.9 1.3 90.9 [180]
TResearch 17–19 Sep 2022 1,000 94.3 4.4 1.4 89.9 [176]
CIESCA 18 Sep 2022 25,623 88.3 11.7 76.6 [175]
CEC-UFG 10–14 Sep 2022 1,231 58.9 23.1 15.0 35.8 [185]
CEC-UFG 26 May 2022 72.2 [186]

Legislative opinion polls

Legislative election polls
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
NI ARENA FMLN GANA PCN PDC NT V CD Other Not vote Unsure Lead Ref.
La Prensa Gráfica Feb 2023 1,500 49.7 2.5 1.4 2.7 43.7 47.2 [187]
La Prensa Gráfica 16–21 Nov 2022 1,520 44.3 3.1 1.1 2.6 1.7 9.7 33.9 41.2 [188]
CEC-UFG 27–31 Oct 2022 1,227 62.8 2.9 2.0 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.8 10.2 18.6 59.9 [70]
2021 legislative election 28 Feb 2021 N/A 66.46 12.18 6.91 5.29 4.08 1.70 1.70 1.01 0.56 54.28 [44]

Municipal opinion polls

Municipal election polls
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
NI ARENA FMLN GANA PCN PDC NT V CD Other Not vote Unsure Lead Ref.
La Prensa Gráfica Feb 2023 1,500 41.9 4.3 2.3 1.9 2.0 47.6 37.6 [187]
La Prensa Gráfica 16–21 Nov 2022 1,520 35.3 4.6 2.2 3.6 2.7 8.2 41.0 30.7 [188]
CEC-UFG 27–31 Oct 2022 1,227 50.0 3.4 2.2 2.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.8 10.5 29.1 46.6 [70]
2021 municipal election 28 Feb 2021 N/A 50.78 19.01 11.16 10.86 4.93 1.73 0.45 0.39 31.77 [45]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Of the 124 seats in the Central American Parliament, El Salvador is allotted 20 seats. The remaining 104 seats are divided among the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama.[2]
  2. ^ Saca's reelection bid was for the 2014 presidential election, one election cycle after his initial election in 2004. Non-immediate reelection is permitted by the country's constitution.[68]
  3. ^ The 17 deputies who attended the February 2023 event in the Los Angeles were Ernesto Castro, Suecy Callejas, Caleb Navarro, Walter Alemán, Lorena Fuentes, Ana Figueroa, Raúl Chamagua, Rubén Flores, Rebeca Santos, Edgardo Mulato, Alexia Rivas, Francisco Villatoro, Carlos Herman Bruch, Erick García, Norma Lobo, Helen Jovel, and Felipe Interiano.[140]

References

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  2. ^ "Diputados" [Deputies]. Central American Parliament (in Spanish). c. 2020. Retrieved 17 January 2023.
  3. ^ "El Salvador Necesita una Agenda de Reformas Electorales, Dice Eurodiputado" [El Salvador Needs an Agenda for Electoral Reforms, Says European Deputy]. swissinfo.ch (in Spanish). 28 October 2021. Retrieved 12 November 2021.
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  7. ^ Nohlen, Dieter (2005). Elections in the Americas A Data Handbook Volume 1: North America, Central America, and the Caribbean. Oxford, United Kingdom: Oxford University Press. pp. 272–274. ISBN 9780191557934. OCLC 58051010. Retrieved 9 January 2023.
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  28. ^ Segura, Edwin (14 March 2023). "LPG Datos | El 68% Dice que Definitivamente Asistirá a Votar" [LPG Statistics | 68% Say They Will Definitely Come to Vote]. La Prensa Gráfica (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 March 2023.
  29. ^ "Estadístico de Ciudadanos Agrupados por Genero y Rango de Edad, Ordenado por Departamento y Municipio de Domicilio Duis Aprobados" [Statistics of Citizens Grouped by Gender and Age Range, Ordered by Department and Municipality of Domicile Duis Approved]. Supreme Electoral Court. 13 February 2023. p. 18. Retrieved 23 February 2023.
  30. ^ a b Supreme Electoral Court [@TSEElSalvador] (7 February 2019). "Resultados (Elección Presidencial de 2019)" [Results (2019 Presidential Election)] (Tweet) (in Spanish). San Salvador, El Salvador. Archived from the original on 29 August 2022. Retrieved 16 September 2022 – via Twitter.
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  47. ^ Segura, Edwin (1 May 2021). "Ernesto Castro, Favorito para Dirigir la Asamblea Legislativa" [Ernesto Castro, Favorite to Lead the Legislative Assembly]. La Prensa Gráfica (in Spanish). Archived from the original on 13 May 2021. Retrieved 25 December 2022.
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  69. ^ "Right-Wing Party Declares ex-President Tony Saca as 2014 Presidential Candidate". CISPES. 2 September 2011. Retrieved 4 November 2022.
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  71. ^ Crespín, Verónica (12 January 2023). "TSE Elabora Instructivo para Inscripción de Candidatura del Presidente Bukele" [TSE Elaborates Instructions for Candidature Registration for President Bukele]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 12 January 2023.
  72. ^ "«La Participación del Presidente Bukele en las Elecciones 2024 es Constitucional», Afirma Vicepresidente Félix Ulloa" ["The Participation of President Bukele in the 2024 Elections is Constitutional", Affirms Vice President Félix Ulloa]. Diario la Huella (in Spanish). 24 September 2022. Archived from the original on 1 January 2023. Retrieved 1 January 2023.
  73. ^ Magaña, Yolanda (10 February 2023). "Vicepresidente Reitera que Nayib Bukele Deberá Pedir Licencia Seis Meses Antes" [The Vice President Reiterates that Nayib Bukele Should Request a License Six Months Before the Election]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 21 February 2023.
  74. ^ "TSE Respetará Decisión Favorable a Bukele en El Salvador" [TSE Will Respect the Favorable Decision to Bukele in El Salvador]. Prensa Latina (in Spanish). 1 March 2023. Retrieved 1 March 2023.
  75. ^ Bukele, Nayib [@nayibbukele] (9 August 2022). "What would the US Government say, if OUR police raided the house of one of the main possible contenders of OUR 2024 presidential election?" (Tweet). Retrieved 15 March 2023 – via Twitter.
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  79. ^ Magaña, Yolanda (17 October 2022). "Nueva Ley de Voto en Exterior no Aplicará para Parlacen y Concejos Municipales" [New Law of the Exterior Vote does not Apply to PARLACEN or Municipal Councils]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 2 January 2023.
  80. ^ Rodríguez, Milton (17 November 2022). "TSE se Compromete a una Elección Transparente" [TSE Commits to a Transparent Election]. El Salvador.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 12 December 2022.
  81. ^ Rodríguez, Milton (2 November 2022). "Más de 600 Mil Personas en el Exterior Podrán Votar en 2024, Dice el TSE" [More than 600 Thousand People Abroad Could Vote in 2024, Says the TSE]. El Salvador.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 12 December 2022.
  82. ^ Crespín, Verónica (15 December 2022). "Padrón Electoral Asciende a 6,114,148 Millones Hasta Diciembre" [Electoral Register Ascends to 6,114,148 Until December]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 2 January 2023.
  83. ^ Rodríguez, Milton (3 November 2022). "Rubén Zamora: Ley del Voto Exterior es una "Farsa" para Hacer Fraude en 2024" [Rubén Zamora: Law of Exterior Voting is a "Farse" to make Fraud in 2024]. El Salvador.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 12 December 2022.
  84. ^ Velásquez, Eugenia (18 October 2022). "Mecanismo de Voto en el Exterior Aprobado por Asamblea Abre Puerta al Fraude, Señala Oposición" [Voting Mechanism in the Exterior Approved by the Assembly Opens the Door to Fraud, Signals Opposition]. El Salvador.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 24 December 2022.
  85. ^ "Voto Electrónico Aumenta Riesgo de Manipulación: Acción Ciudadana Sobre Sufragio en el Exterior" [Electronic Vote Allows Risk of Manipulation: Citizen Action on Suffrage in the Exterior]. La Prensa Gráfica (in Spanish). 7 July 2022. Retrieved 10 January 2022.
  86. ^ "Diputado Ernesto Castro Rechaza Argumentos de «Fraude» de la Oposición en Elecciones 2024" [Deputy Ernesto Castro Rejects the Opposition's Arguments of "Fraud" in the 2024 Elections]. Diario la Huella (in Spanish). 1 November 2022. Archived from the original on 26 December 2022. Retrieved 25 December 2022.
  87. ^ Magaña, Yolanda (18 January 2023). "Aprueban Hasta 15 Años de Prisión por Fraude y Bloquear Inscripción de Candidatos en Elecciones" [They Approved Up to 15 Years of Prison for Fraud and Blocking the Inscription of Candidates in Elections]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 January 2023.
  88. ^ Velásquez, Eugenia (18 February 2023). "Oficialismo Aprueba Cárcel de Hasta 20 Años por Impedir a Candidatos Inscribirse para Elecciones" [They Officially Approved Prison for up to 20 Years for Impeding a Candidate's Registration for Elections]. El Salvador.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 March 2023.
  89. ^ Velásquez, Eugenia (28 February 2023). "Reforma Penal que Impone Hasta 20 Años de Cárcel por Obstaculizar Candidaturas ya Entró en Vigencia" [Penal Reform which Imposes up to 20 Years Imprisonment for Obstructing Candidacies Already Entered into Force]. El Salvador.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 1 March 2023.
  90. ^ Rodríguez, Milton (28 January 2023). "Magistrado del TSE Propone Uso del Sistema Biométrico para Elecciones 2024" [TSE Magistrate Proposes the Use of a Biometric System for the 2024 Elections]. El Salvador.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 January 2023.
  91. ^ Crespín, Verónica (30 January 2023). "¿Cómo el TSE Comprobará la Identidad del Votante en el Exterior en 2024?" [How Will the TSE Verify the Identity of Voters in the Exterior in 2024?]. El Mundo. Retrieved 30 January 2023.
  92. ^ "PDDH Tendrá Observatorio de Elecciones 2024" [PDDH Will Be an Observer of the 2024 Elections]. El Mundo (in Spanish). 10 February 2023. Retrieved 21 February 2023.
  93. ^ Campos Madrid, Gabriel (21 June 2022). "Lanzan Iniciativa "Votante"" [They Begin Initiative "Votante"]. La Prensa Gráfica (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 March 2023.
  94. ^ Magaña, Yolanda (3 March 2023). "Iniciativa Votante Pide al TSE Gestione Observación Electoral de ONU, OEA y UE" [Voter Initiative Asks the TSE to Manage Electoral Observation of the UN, OAS, and EU]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 3 March 2023.
  95. ^ Rodríguez, Milton (2 March 2023). "Iniciativa Votante Pide a la Comunidad Internacional Acompañe en Elecciones 2024" [Voter Initiative Asks the International Community to Accompany the 2024 Election]. El Salvador.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 4 March 2023.
  96. ^ "Reforma de Municipios en El Salvador Crea Fricciones" [Municipality Reform in El Salvador Creates Frictions]. Prensa Latina (in Spanish). 4 January 2023. Retrieved 5 January 2023.
  97. ^ Velásquez, Eugenia (4 January 2022). "Reducción de Municipios Debe Ser con Base en Censo, Señala VAMOS" [Municipality Reduction Should be Based on Census, Signals VAMOS]. El Salvador.com. Retrieved 5 January 2022.
  98. ^ a b Velásquez, Eugenia (3 January 2023). "Intención de Bukele de Reducir Municipios es para Concentrar Más Poder, Afirman Expertos" [Bukele's Intention to Reduce Municipalities is to Concentrate More Power, Affirm Experts]. El Salvador.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 January 2023.
  99. ^ Velásquez, Eugenia (2 January 2023). "Pasar de 262 a 50 Municipios Puede Crear "Manipulación Electoral", Señalan Abogados y Economistas" [Going from 262 to 50 Municipalities Can Create "Electoral Manipulation", Signals Lawyers and Economists]. El Salvador.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 January 2023.
  100. ^ Parada, Abigail (5 January 2023). "Reducir Municipios Generaría un Efecto para Deteriorar las Elecciones Municipales, Reitera Acción Ciudadana" [Reducing Municipalities Will Generate and Effect to Deteriorate the Municipal Elections, Reiterates Citizen Action]. El Salvador.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 5 January 2023.
  101. ^ "Expectativas en El Salvador Sobre Reducción de los Municipios" [Expectations in El Salvador on the Reduction of the Municipalities]. Prensa Latina (in Spanish). 3 January 2023. Retrieved 5 January 2023.
  102. ^ Peñate, Susana (6 February 2023). "Alcalde Durán de Acuerdo en Reducir Cantidad de Municipios" [Mayor Durán in Support of Reducing the Number of Municipalities]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 6 February 2023.
  103. ^ Crespín, Verónica. "Gallegos Sugiere Reducir la Cantidad de Diputados en Asamblea Legislativa" [Gallegos Suggests Reducing the Amount of Deputies in the Legislative Assembly]. El Mundo (in Spanish).
  104. ^ "Gana Fuerza Propuesta de Reordenar Municipios en El Salvador" [The Proposal to Reorder Municipalities in El Salvador Gains Force]. Prensa Latina (in Spanish). San Salvador, El Salvador. 11 January 2023. Retrieved 17 January 2023.
  105. ^ a b c Mondragón, Lissette (21 February 2023). "Oficialismo Evalúa Proponer Reducción en el Número de los Municipios y Diputados" [Officials Evaluate Proposing Reduction in the Number of Municipalities and Deputies]. La Prensa Gráfica (in Spanish). Retrieved 21 February 2023.
  106. ^ Parada, Abigail (20 February 2023). "Asamblea Podría Reducirse de 84 a 64 Diputados, Según Ernesto Castro" [Assembly Could Reduce from 84 to 64 Deputies, According to Ernesto Castro]. El Salvador.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 20 February 2023.
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  129. ^ Cite error: The named reference Mayors Resign2 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
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Further reading

External links