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Frequently asked questions

To view an answer, click the [show] link to the right of the question. To view references used by an answer, you must also click the [show] for references at the bottom of the FAQ.

Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on climate change?

A1: Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. This scientific consensus is supported by over 99% of publishing climate scientists.^[1]

Q2: How can we say climate change is real when it's been so cold in such-and-such a place?

A2: This is why it is termed "global warming", not "(such-and-such a place) warming". Even then, what rises is the average temperature over time – that is, the temperature will fluctuate up and down within the overall rising trend. To give an idea of the relevant time scales, the standard averaging period specified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 30 years. Accordingly, the WMO defines climate change as "a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)."^[2]

Q3: Can't the increase of CO₂ be from natural sources, like volcanoes or the oceans?

A3: While these claims are popular among global warming skeptics,^[3]^[4] including academically trained ones,^[5]^[6] they are incorrect. This is known from any of several perspectives:

Current human emissions of CO₂ are at least 100 times larger than volcanic emissions. Measurements of CO₂ levels over the past 50 years do not show any significant rises after eruptions.^[7] This is easily seen in a graph of CO₂ concentrations over the past 50 years: the strongest eruption during the period, that of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, produced no increase in the trend.
Isotopic analysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide shows the observed change in the ratio of carbon isotopes reflects the isotopic ratios in fossil fuels.^[8]
Atmospheric oxygen content is decreasing at a rate that agrees with the amount of oxygen being used to burn fossil fuels.^[9]
If the oceans were giving up some of their carbon dioxide, their carbon dioxide concentration would have to decrease. But instead we are measuring an increase in the oceans' carbon dioxide concentration, resulting in the oceans becoming more acidic (or in other words, less basic).^[10]

Q4: I think the article is missing some things, or has some things wrong. Can I change it?

A4: Yes. Keep in mind that your points need to be based on documented evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, or other information that meets standards of verifiability, reliability, and no original research. If you do not have such evidence, more experienced editors may be able to help you find it (or confirm that such evidence does not exist). You are welcome to make such queries on the article's talk page but please keep in mind that the talk page is for discussing improvements to the article, not discussing the topic. There are many forums that welcome general discussions of global warming, but the article talk page is not such a forum.

Q5: Why haven't the graphs been updated?

A5: Two reasons:

There are many images used in the articles related to global warming, and there are many reasons why they may not be updated with the latest data. Some of the figures, like the Global Warming Map, are static, meaning that they are intended to show a particular phenomenon and are not meant to be updated frequently or at all. Others, like the Instrumental Temperature Record and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent Anomalies, use yearly data and thus are updated once per year—usually in mid- to late-January, depending upon when the data is publicly released, and when a volunteer creates the image. Still others, like Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide, use monthly data. These are updated semi-regularly.
However, just because an image is 6 months or a year old does not mean it is useless. Robert A. Heinlein is credited with saying, "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", meaning that climate is defined as a long-term average of weather, usually about 30 years. This length was chosen to eliminate the year-to-year variations.^[11] Thus, in terms of climate change, any given year's data is of little import.

Q6: Isn't climate change "just a theory"?

A6: People who say this are abusing the word "theory" by conflating its common meaning with its scientific meaning. In common usage, "theory" can mean a hunch or guess, but a scientific theory, roughly speaking, means a coherent set of explanations that is compatible with observations and that allows predictions to be made. That the temperature is rising is an observation. An explanation for this (also known as a hypothesis) is that the warming is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (such as CO₂ and methane) released into the atmosphere by human activity. Scientific models have been built that predict the rise in temperature and these predictions have matched observations. When scientists gain confidence in a hypothesis because it matches observation and has survived intense scrutiny, the hypothesis may be called a "theory". Strictly speaking, scientific theories are never proven, but the degree of confidence in a theory can be discussed. The scientific models now suggest that it is "extremely likely" (>95%) to "virtually certain" (>99%) that the increases in temperature have been caused by human activity as discussed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Global warming via greenhouse gases by human activity is a theory (in the scientific sense), but it is most definitely not just a hunch or guess.

Q7: Does methane cause more warming than CO₂?

A7: It's true that methane is more potent molecule for molecule. But there's far less of it in the atmosphere, so the total effect is smaller. The atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO₂ (hundreds to thousands of years), so when methane emissions are reduced the concentration in the atmosphere soon falls, whereas CO₂ accumulates in the atmosphere over long periods. For details see the greenhouse gas and global warming potential articles.

Q8: How can you say there's a consensus when lists of "skeptical scientists" have been compiled?

A8: Consensus is not the same as unanimity, the latter of which is impractical for large groups. Over 99% of publishing climate scientists agree on anthropogenic climate change.^[1] This is an extremely high percentage well past any reasonable threshold for consensus. Any list of "skeptical scientists" would be dwarfed by a comparably compiled list of scientists accepting anthropogenic climate change.

Q9: Did climate change end in 1998?

A9: One of the strongest El Niño events in the instrumental record occurred during late 1997 through 1998, causing a spike in global temperature for 1998. Through the mid-late 2000s this abnormally warm year could be chosen as the starting point for comparisons with later years in order to produce a cooling trend; choosing any other year in the 20th century produced a warming trend. This no longer holds since the mean global temperatures in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998.^[12] More importantly, scientists do not define a "trend" by looking at the difference between two given years. Instead they use methods such as linear regression that take into account all the values in a series of data. The World Meteorological Organisation specifies 30 years as the standard averaging period for climate statistics so that year-to-year fluctuations are averaged out;^[2] thus, 10 years isn't long enough to detect a climate trend.

Q10: Wasn't Greenland much warmer during the period of Norse settlement?

A10: Some people assume this because of the island's name. In fact the Saga of Erik the Red tells us Erik named the new colony Greenland because "men will desire much the more to go there if the land has a good name."^[13] Advertising hype was alive and well in 985 AD.

While much of Greenland was and remains under a large ice sheet, the areas of Greenland that were settled by the Norse were coastal areas with fjords that, to this day, remain quite green. You can see the following images for reference:

A map of the Eastern Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A map of the Western Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A zoom in on the general area where the Brattahlíð (Erik the Red's farm) and Garðar farms were located

Q11: Are the IPCC reports prepared by biased UN scientists?

A11: The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and it has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by various organizations including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties.

Q12: Hasn't global sea ice increased over the last 30 years?

A12: Measurements show that it has not.^[14] Claims that global sea ice amounts have stayed the same or increased are a result of cherry picking two data points to compare, while ignoring the real (strongly statistically significant) downward trend in measurements of global sea ice amounts.

Arctic sea ice cover is declining strongly; Antarctic sea ice cover has had some much smaller increases, though it may or may not be thinning, and the Southern Ocean is warming. The net global ice-cover trend is clearly downwards.

Q13: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that the Earth was cooling instead of warming?

A13: They weren't – see the article on global cooling. An article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has reviewed the scientific literature at that time and found that even during the 1970s the prevailing scientific concern was over warming.^[15] The common misperception that cooling was the main concern during the 1970s arose from a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, such as a short nine-paragraph article that appeared in Newsweek in 1975.^[16] (Newsweek eventually apologized for having misrepresented the state of the science in the 1970s.)^[17] The author of that article has repudiated the idea that it should be used to deny global warming.^[18]

Q14: Doesn't water vapour cause 98% of the greenhouse effect?

A14: Water vapour is indeed a major greenhouse gas, contributing about 36% to 70% (not 98%) of the total greenhouse effect. But water vapour has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days), compared with decades to centuries for greenhouse gases like CO₂ or nitrous oxide. As a result it is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, which globally maintains a nearly constant relative humidity. In simpler terms, any excess water vapour is removed by rainfall, and any deficit of water vapour is replenished by evaporation from the Earth's surface, which literally has oceans of water. Thus water vapour cannot act as a driver of climate change.

Rising temperatures caused by the long-lived greenhouse gases will however allow the atmosphere to hold more vapour. This will lead to an increase in the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Since water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, this is an example of a positive feedback. Thus, whereas water vapour is not a driver of climate change, it amplifies existing trends.

Q15: Is the fact that other solar system bodies are warming evidence for a common cause (i.e. the sun)?

A15: While some solar system bodies show evidence of local or global climate change, there is no evidence for a common cause of warming.

A 2007 National Geographic article described the views of Khabibullo Abdusamatov, who claims that the sun is responsible for global warming on both Earth and Mars.^[19] Abdussamatov's views have no support in the scientific community, as the second page of the National Geographic article makes clear: "'His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion,' said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University. [...] Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that 'the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations.'"^[20]
There is no reliable source claiming that Jupiter is warming. However, observations of the Red Spot Jr. storm suggest Jupiter could be in a period of global climate change.^[21]^[22] This is hypothesized to be part of an approximately 70 year global climate cycle, characterized by the relatively rapid forming and subsequent slow erosion and merging of cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices that help transfer heat between Jupiter's poles and equator. The cycle works like this: As the vortices erode, heat exchange is reduced; this makes the poles cool down and the equatorial region heat up; the resulting temperature difference destabilizes the atmosphere, leading to the creation of new vortices.^[23]^[24]
Pluto has an extremely elliptical orbit with a period of about 248 years. Data are sparse, but two data points from 1988 and 2002 indirectly suggest that Pluto warmed between those two dates.^[25] Pluto's temperature is heavily influenced by its elliptical orbit – it was closest to the sun in 1989 and has slowly receded since. Because of thermal inertia, it is expected to warm for a while after it passes perihelion (similar to how a sunny day's warmest temperatures happen during the afternoon instead of right at noon). No other mechanism has so far been seriously suggested. Here is a reasonable summary, and this paper discusses how the thermal inertia is provided by sublimation and evaporation of parts of Pluto's atmosphere. A more popular account is here and in Wikipedia's own article.

Q16: Do scientists support climate change just to get more money?

A16: No,

Scientists participate in international organizations like the IPCC as part of their normal academic duties. They do not receive any extra compensation beyond possibly for direct expenses.
Scientific grants do not usually award any money to a scientist personally, only towards the cost of his or her scientific work.
There is not a shortage of useful things that scientists could study if they were not studying global warming.
- Understanding our climate system better brings benefits independent of global warming. For instance, more accurate weather predictions save a lot of money (on the order of billions of dollars a year), and everyone from insurance agents to farmers wants climate data.^[26]^[27] Scientists could get paid to study climate even if global warming did not exist.

Q17: Doesn't the climate vary even without human activity?

A17: It does, but the fact that natural variation occurs does not mean that human-induced change cannot also occur. Climate scientists have extensively studied natural causes of climate change (such as orbital changes, volcanism, and solar variation) and have ruled them out as an explanation for the current temperature increase. Human activity is the cause at the 95 to 99 percent confidence level (see the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for details). The high level of certainty in this is important to keep in mind to spot mention of natural variation functioning as a distraction.

Q18: Should we include the view that climate change will lead to planetary doom or catastrophe?

A18: This page is about the science of climate change. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe. For a technical explanation, see catastrophic climate change, and for paleoclimatic examples see PETM and great dying.

Q19: Is an increase in global temperature of, say, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) important?

A19: Though it may not sound like much, a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is huge in climate terms. For example, the sea level rise it would produce would flood coastal cities around the world, which include most large cities.

Earth's climate has varied significantly over geological ages. The question of an "optimal temperature" makes no sense without a clear optimality criterion. Over geological time spans, ecosystems adapt to climate variations. But global climate variations during the development of human civilization (i.e. the past 12,000 years) have been remarkably small. Human civilization is highly adapted to the current stable climate. Agricultural production depends on the proper combination of soil, climate, methods, and seeds. Most large cities are located on the coast, and any significant change in sea level would strongly affect them. Migration of humans and ecosystems is limited by political borders and existing land use. In short, the main problem is not the higher absolute temperature but the massive and unprecedentedly fast change in climate and the related effects on human societies. The IPCC AR6 WG2 report has a detailed discussion of the effects of rapid climate change.

Q20: Why are certain proposals to change the article discarded, deleted, or ignored? Who is/was Scibaby?

A20: Scibaby is/was a long term abusive sock-master (or coordinated group of sock masters) who has created 1,027 confirmed sock puppets, another 167 suspected socks, and probably many untagged or unrecognized ones. This page lists some recent creations. His modus operandi has changed over time, but includes proposing reasonably worded additions on the talk page that only on close examination turn out to be irrelevant, misinterpreted, or give undue weight to certain aspects. Scibaby is banned, and Scibaby socks are blocked as soon as they are identified. Some editors silently revert his additions, per WP:DENY, while others still assume good faith even for likely socks and engage them.

Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer-reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...?

A21: There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published every month in respected scientific journals such as Geophysical Research Letters, the Journal of Climate, and others. We can't include all of them, but the article does include references to individual papers where there is consensus that they best represent the state of the relevant science. This is in accordance with the "due weight" principle (WP:WEIGHT) of the Neutral point of view policy and the "Wikipedia is not an indiscriminate collection of information" principle (WP:IINFO) of the What Wikipedia is not policy.

Q22: Why does the article define "climate change" as a recent phenomenon? Hasn't the planet warmed and cooled before?

A22: Yes, the planet has warmed and cooled before. However, the term "climate change" without further qualification is widely understood to refer to the recent episode and often explicitly connected with the greenhouse effect. Per WP:COMMONNAME, we use the term in this most common meaning. The article Climate variability and change deals with the more general concept.

Q23: Did the CERN CLOUD experiment prove that climate change is caused not by human activity but by cosmic rays?

A23: No. For cosmic rays to be causing global warming, all of the following would have to be true, whereas only the italicized one was tested in the 2011 experiment:^[28]

Solar magnetic field must be getting stronger
The number of cosmic rays reaching Earth must be dropping
Cosmic rays must successfully seed clouds, which requires:

Cosmic rays must trigger aerosol (liquid droplet) formation,
These newly-formed aerosols must grow sufficiently through condensation to form cloud-condensation nuclei (CCN),
The CCN must lead to increased cloud formation, and
Cloud cover on Earth must be declining.

Perhaps the study's lead author, Jasper Kirkby, put it best: "...it [the experiment] actually says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate, but it's a very important first step."^[29]

Q24: I read that something can't fix climate change. Is this true?

A24: Yes, this is true for all plausible single things including: "electric cars", "planting trees", "low-carbon technology", "renewable energy", "Australia", "capitalism", "the doom & gloom approach", "a Ph.D. in thermodynamics". Note that it is problematic to use the word "fix" regarding climate change, as returning the climate to its pre-industrial state currently appears to be feasible only over a timeframe of thousands of years. Current efforts are instead aimed at mitigating (meaning limiting) climate change. Mitigation is strived for through the combination of many different things. See Climate change mitigation for details.

References

^ ^a ^b Powell, James (20 November 2019). "Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming". Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 37 (4): 183–184. doi:10.1177/0270467619886266. S2CID 213454806. Retrieved 15 November 2020.
^ ^a ^b "Commission for Climatology Frequently Asked Questions". World Meteorological Organization. Archived from the original on 5 May 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020.
^ Harris, Tom. "Scientists who work in the fields liberal arts graduate Al Gore wanders through contradict his theories about man-induced climate change". National Post. Archived from the original on 30 August 2011. Retrieved 11 January 2009 – via Solid Waste & Recycling. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; 4 February 2012 suggested (help)
^ Arriola, Benj. "5 Good Arguments Why GlobalWarming is NOT due to Man-made Carbon Dioxide". Global Warming Awareness Blog. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Ahlbeck, Jarl. "Increase of the Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration due to Ocean Warming". Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Kirby, Simon (11 April 2007). "Top scientist debunks global warming". Herald Sun. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Brahic, Catherine (16 May 2007). "Climate myths: Human CO2 emissions are too tiny to matter". New Scientist. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ "More Notes on Global Warming". Physics Today. May 2005. Retrieved 10 September 2007.
^ Battle, M.; et al. (2000). "Global Carbon Sinks and Their Variability Inferred from Atmospheric O2 and d13C". Science. 287 (5462): 2467–2470. doi:10.1126/science.287.5462.2467.
^ The Royal Society (2005). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide". Retrieved 9 May 2012.
^ "Met Office: Climate averages". Met Office. Archived from the original on 24 February 2009. Retrieved 23 January 2009.
^ Climate Central (18 January 2017). "2016 Was the Hottest Year on Record". Climate Central. Retrieved 1 February 2017.
^ The Saga of Erik the Red, 1880, English translation by J. Sephton, from the original Eiríks saga rauða.
^ "Cold Hard Facts". Tamino. 8 January 2009. Retrieved 21 January 2009.^{[dead link]}
^ Peterson, T. C.; et al. (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 89 (9): 1325. Bibcode:2008BAMS...89.1325P. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1.
^ Gwynne, Peter (28 April 1975). "The Cooling World". Newsweek. p. 64.
^ Verger, Rob (23 May 2014). "Newsweek Rewind: Debunking Global Cooling". Newsweek.
^ Gwynne, Peter (21 May 2014). "My 1975 'Cooling World' Story Doesn't Make Today's Climate Scientists Wrong". insidescience.org.
^ Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
^ Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says (page 2)". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
^ Marcus, Philip; Shetty, Sushil; Asay-Davis, Xylar (November 2006). Velocities and Temperatures of Jupiter's Great Red Spot and the New Red Oval and Implications for Global Climate Change. American Physical Society. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Goudarzi, Sara (4 May 2006). "New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change". Space.com. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Philip, Marcus S. (22 April 2004). "Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter" (PDF). Nature. 428 (6985): 828–831. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Yang, Sarah (21 April 2004). "Researcher predicts global climate change on Jupiter as giant planet's spots disappear". University of California, Berkeley. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Elliot, J. L.; et al. (10 July 2003). "The recent expansion of Pluto's atmosphere". Nature (424): 165–168. doi:10.1038/nature01762.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
^ Foerster, Jim. "What's The Difference Between Private Weather Companies And The National Weather Service?". Forbes.
^ Eilts, Mike (27 November 2018). "The Role of Weather—and Weather Forecasting—in Agriculture". DTN.
^ "What do the CERN experiments tell us about global warming?". Skeptical Science. 2 September 2011.
^ Brumfiel, Geoff (23 August 2011). "Cloud Formation May Be Linked to Cosmic Rays". Scientific American.

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Section on temperature decline

Let's wait until the authorities announce a falling trend in global average temperatures

It is now time that this article caught up with the reality of the situation and started addressing the recent decline in temperature.

Scientists said they must explain better how a freezing winter this year in parts of the northern hemisphere and a break in a rising trend in global temperatures since 1998 can happen when heat-trapping gases are pouring into the atmosphere.

"There is a lack of consensus," said Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, on why global temperatures have not matched a peak set in 1998, or in 2005 according to one US analysis. For a table of world temperatures:

Part of the explanation could be a failure to account for rapid warming in parts of the Arctic, where sea ice had melted, and where there were fewer monitoring stations, he said. [1]

What should this section be called? I suggest: "21st century pause in temperature" as the least POV title I can think of. What do other editors think it should be called? Isonomia (talk) 21:54, 25 February 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I think you should try to find out the difference between weather and climate, for a start. --Nigelj (talk) 22:00, 25 February 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Are you kidding me, Is that a serious remark intended to address the known pause instrumental pause in warming? Isonomia (talk) 12:40, 2 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

And read the archived discussion from last time. And the time before that William M. Connolley (talk) 22:04, 25 February 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Those archives are pre-climategate and now totally meaningless because I for one wouldn't have let to you get away with the comments you made about peer review if I knew the way your chums were perverting that system.Isonomia (talk) 12:40, 2 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

(ecx2)Not trying to be flippant, but nothing, as there isn't enough data yet to know if there is any significant change going on. This has been endlessly discussed here recently and plenty of times before that can be found in the archives. Look at other parts of the temperature graph, such as the period around 1980, what's the difference between what is happening now and what happened then? Mikenorton (talk) 22:05, 25 February 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Of course there is enough data. The trend in the trend is clearly downward. That's twenty years of comparison, what more do you want? A century of cooling, because if that is your rediculous stance then this isn't science and I'd rather spend my time where people really deal with science. Isonomia (talk) 12:40, 2 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The "trend in the trend"? What about the "trend in the trend in the trend"? There is no significant decline in global temperature over the last 15 or 20 years - on the contrary, there is an increase. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 12:58, 2 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Stephan, I can't be expected to teach you basic maths that any schoolboy will understand. If you don't understand what the trend in the trend is then may I suggest the solution is in your hands and not mine. Just take it from me that the trend in the trend is clearly downward. The temperature has cooled since 2001 (the date the IPCC issued their report saying how much it would warm). Since 2001 the temperature has cooled whilst all the predictions were warming. That is a significant change in the previous warming trend. That change has occurred over a period of 20years. This is a significant change in the climate over a twenty year period which by any definition of the climate is climatic and not weather. Only someone who was trying to hide the real facts would try to hide this well known fact. Now stop asking rediculous questions and lets try improving the article by deciding what to call this section.Isonomia (talk) 21:31, 2 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Your original header was about a decline in temperature. I just want to be sure if you now backpedal to "a decline in the rate of temperature increase", or if you still maintain there is a decline in temperature. And in either case, just like Boris, I would like to know what you base this on. Reasonable maths would be fine for the discussion, but for inclusion into the article we need, of course, one or more reliable sources. Handwaving and vague references to schoolboy maths, on the other hand, are furthering neither the discussion nor improve the article. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 12:46, 3 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

So when you wrote the subject heading "Section on temperature decline" what you really meant was "Section on recent decline in rising trend." Is that correct? You actually seem to be talking about a fall in the first difference of global average temperature over a decade, and not to a fall in global average temperature.

And on a point of fact, I must correct you on the notion that the temperature has been falling since 2001. This was the warmest decade since records began. --TS 21:38, 2 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I see this statement repeated many times, without anyone pointing out that the claims are not contradictory. It is mathematically trivial to create a data set that is decreasing since 2001, for which the latest decade is the highest ever. Consider it now pointed out.--SPhilbrick T 01:45, 3 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Of course it's trivial to demonstrate the mathematical fact. Considerably harder, however, to maintain that there's a cooling trend in the face of the facts. If you have the mathematical sophistication to make the argument above, that is, you also have the nous to see that the claim of a cooling trend since 2001 cannot be made credibly by a person with enough statistical knowledge to make it. --TS 02:01, 3 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Isonomia, I'm curious as to the methodology that you used to compute the trend. Assuming you used linear regression, what did you obtain for the regression coefficients, and the corresponding R² value and level of significance? Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 02:12, 3 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

TS and Sphilbrick you're basically talking past each other, although I think you're being a little pedantic Sphilbrick. The trends that people in climate change always operate on an average global mean temperature deviation that is smoothed over both time and space. That's pretty obvious because there isn't one global temperature at all - it is a summary statistic which is useful for describing part of the data. SBHB - take it from me, those numbers are easy to calculate, but hard to talk about precisely. Are you interested in the significance if temperature deviation is explained by a trend in time? We don't think that there is any causation along those lines: no one says that global warming is caused by time passing - but you might observe that global warming is occurring. You wouldn't be able to draw a conclusion as to why. On the other hand you might regress it against atmospheric CO2 concentration - known to cause a greenhouse effect for more than 100 years - and have at least some hint of causality in there. On the other hand the confidence will be different. Heck even on the same data set if you aren't careful about transforming it into a stable process you can end up with spurious R^2 - linear regression is a quick tool to use but makes no particular provision about time ordering or a "why." Ignignot (talk) 12:33, 3 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I'm asking how you diagnosed the trend, not asking about causality. How did you compute the trend? Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 13:48, 3 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Fine, going to GISS - you'll find the last 10 years of data at the end of the table. Using OLS with the following discussion breaking table of "Explanatory" variable X (transposed!):

Offset:	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trend:	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10

and response Y (also transposed)

Temperature Index:	33	48	56	55	48	62	54	57	43	57

If you take inv(X' * X) * X' * Y, by whatever method you feel like, you'll see that there is an intercept of 44.7333 and a (positive) yearly trend of 1.1939. Throw it into your favorite ANOVA calculator and you'll see that the trend has a p value of > .21, which is rejected at the 95% confidence level usually used. So there is no trend. In that data. But even if it did, there is no explanation in the "explanatory" values. The R^2 is something like .2 Ignignot (talk) 14:57, 3 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Sorry, Ignignot, but you missed the point. As did TS. I'm not saying that there is a cooling trend for certain. However, Tony says it is hard to maintain that there is a cooling trend in the face of the facts. The only fact Tony mentioning was that the most recent decade is the warmest ever. He made the statement, as have many others, as if that fact is sufficient to disprove the claim that there's been a recent cooling trend. My sole point is that the fact is not sufficient. It is quite possible for both statements to be true. Whether or not the recent period is actually a cooling trend is a tricky statement, as the mathematics of calculating trend does not have a clear cut algorithm for determining the appropriate number of points needed to make a statement about trend. So people will argue about it. My sole point is that those who dismiss the claim with the simple fact that the latest decade is the warmest haven't refuted anything.--SPhilbrick T 13:37, 3 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Any two points define a "trend", if usually an insignificant and useless one. However, in this context we are (hopefully) talking about trends relevant to climate. Such trends can be supported by pointing at decadal averages much better than by looking at intra-decadal temperature changes (which allow no conclusion about climatic trends). --Stephan Schulz (talk) 13:44, 3 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

See FAQ Q3. . . dave souza, talk 22:30, 25 February 2010 (UTC)[reply]
- ~~Unfortunately FAQ Q3 is officially out of date. As Dr. Trenberth said, "There is a lack of consensus". Wellpoint32 (talk) 07:09, 27 February 2010 (UTC)~~[reply]

Thanks for pointing out the FAQ. That too, is misleading. The question it purports to answer is "Did global warming end in 1998"

But the closing sentence is "The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that the decade 2000-2009 was the warmest on record for the globe, with 2005 the warmest year". Why is this sentence here? I think some feel it is a rebuttal to the inference in the question, and I've seen it used many times, as if it were a rebuttal, but it is not. I'm personally agnostic on whether it has been cooling since 1998, leaning toward no, but the final sentence in the FAQ does not respond to the question. It is possible for both statements to be true. --SPhilbrick T 13:47, 3 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

- If you know where you read that, you can go back to the source and read what Dr. Trenberth said there was a lack of consensus on. Hint: it isn't on whether there is a warming trend. --TS 13:39, 27 February 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The bottom line is there has been an 8,000-year cooling trend, according to the ice core data. It's cooler now than in the Roman Warm Period, cooler than in the Medieval Warm Period. The trend is flat since the 1930s, and flat for the last 10 years. How many different ways does it have to be shown that the Earth isn't warming? Kauffner (talk) 03:13, 28 February 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The trend is flat since the 1930s.^{[citation needed]} Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 04:38, 28 February 2010 (UTC)[reply]

NOOOO My beautiful matrixes!!! Ignignot (talk) 20:48, 4 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

A handful of POV issues.

The article also omits any mention of CO2/$GNP statistics, which biases it towards its conclusion that the US is a worse offender than China when the reverse is true in terms of energy efficiency relative to wealth generation. This is a hotly contested policy issue, and the article takes sides by relying solely on the CO2 per capita statistic.
The article does not distinguish between skeptics of the science and skeptics of the economics, making opponents of radical climate-change policies seem like know-nothings. In fact, there are many skeptics who fully acknowledge the existence of and scientific consensus for anthropogenic global warming, but believe the damage to the economy from drastic limits on carbon emissions would far outweigh the damage from global warming itself.
The article falsely characterizes the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute with the pejorative and incorrect adjective "business-centered." A featured article should have no need to poison the well. I would hope that it's uncontroversial that I corrected this line-item. THF (talk) 12:55, 1 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
The File:GHG_per_capita_2000.svg map pushes the POV that the US is a particularly bad offender: you will see that the green bars are very narrow, while the red bars take up 80% of the range. A neutral map would have the US colored in at greenish yellow rather than dark orange. THF (talk) 13:07, 1 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Being a die-hard capitalist I don't see "business centered" as pejorative. Nor as false, for that matter. They say themselves that they are "dedicated to free enterprise," which is essentially the same thing. Maybe "market oriented" or similar wording? Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 14:43, 1 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Being dedicated to "free enterprise" isn't necessarily "business centered": many businesses prefer to engage in rent seeking rather than free market competition. I'd be alright with "free-market." THF (talk) 14:54, 1 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

This is getting a bit esoteric for Wikipedia, but I think your edit does make the article clearer. The organizations in question tend to be ideologically libertarian, and most of them seem to be avowedly so. --TS 02:09, 3 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks. Any thoughts on the other three issues? THF (talk) 03:54, 3 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

(outdent) (1) List of countries by ratio of GDP to carbon dioxide emissions has the data set, I can make a map and add a sentence in. (2) I think you're right, just need a source, I'll look for some, but no promises. (3) "free-market" works. (4) It's correct, the map is normalized, while the key is kept as it is, linear. The data is not uniformly distributed (which would work best for maps like this) or normally distributed, in fact it is very high skewed. If we kept everything linear you'd have about five islands of solid red in a solid sea of green. In order to get a decent color gradient, you have to put it though a statical transformation. I think this might be a power law transformation, maybe exponential. You can of course transform both the key and the map, but transformed keys are cumbersome to read. ChyranandChloe (talk) 08:46, 3 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

We Need to Work This Criticism into the Appropriate AGW Articles

Please discuss this at Talk:Institute of Physics, Talk:Climatic Research Unit, or Talk:Climatic Research Unit hacking incident. - 2/0 (cont.) 21:53, 2 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The British Institute of Physics is concerned about CRU information and research policies: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/memo/climatedata/uc3902.htm Any suggestions on how to reach a consensus on where and how to include this?Spoonkymonkey (talk) 16:15, 1 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

This, too: The ICO accuses University of East Anglia of misleading Parliament: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/memo/climatedata/uc3902.htm

Civility and focus on the project will be greatly appreciated. Spoonkymonkey (talk) 16:19, 1 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I don't see this as relevant to any of the more science-based articles. The main CRU results have been confirmed over and over again, and HadCRUT is is full agreement with other temperature reconstructions. Did you intentionally copy the same link twice? I don't see the source having anything on the second claim. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 16:27, 1 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Of course they have been confirmed - because as Prof Jones clearly admits they are basically all churning the same bogus temperature data. Rubbish in - rubbish out, that is climate "science" + groupthink, hiding the decline and subverting peer review. This is supposed to be science, so lets stop the charade of removing any scientific criticism of this climategate bunch - because that isn't science, it's politics and you know it! Isonomia (talk) 12:46, 2 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

It isn't the IOP anyway, its just some splinter sub-group. NOTNEWs, or have we learnt nothing? William M. Connolley (talk) 16:31, 1 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The memorandum is has been submitted in the name of the IOP and it look pretty relevant to me. Martin Hogbin (talk) 16:48, 1 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Please pause to think just a little before reacting. As I say, this isn't the IOP, its some runaway subgroup William M. Connolley (talk) 17:03, 1 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

It is not some runaway subgroup. Check the links below, both from the UK Parliament and the IOP. Please pause to check before reacting, WMC.Spoonkymonkey (talk) 17:22, 1 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

William, what is your evidence that this report was produced by a splinter group. Martin Hogbin (talk) 18:37, 1 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

It is the full institute. Here is the link from their web page: http://www.iop.org/activity/policy/Consultations/Energy_and_Environment/file_39010.pdf It is important, and I hope you can be civil. This is the link to the Times article about the ICO and the University of East Anglia: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7043566.ece As I said, I am hoping we can had a constructive discussion on how to work this material into the AGW-issue articles, and I hope we can develop consensus about which articles are best suited for this information.

Spoonkymonkey (talk) 16:53, 1 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Same logo, but the statements seem an epic fail of the institute's motto – "Download our introductory brochure, "Promoting physics, supporting physicists". More like incompetently dumping physicists due to assumptions of bad faith. The Times article has already been dealt with on the appropriate page. . . dave souza, talk 19:48, 1 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

And, regarding the heading, you need to slow down. Why the urgency to get untested partial info into the articles? . . dave souza, talk 19:56, 1 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Gratuitousd insults of Britain's physicists is hardly a mature way to deal with the issues raised by people who have more training in science than you. Normally, the AGW crowd is deferential to scientists, but now it seems they pick and choose, based on whether they are inside or outside the laager. I am not suggesting haste. Far from it. I know the material needs to be included in the CRU Hacking article but I believe their concerns about the quality of the CRU's science should be included in other articles. So let's deal with this maturely, not by making up "splinter groups" and denigrating well-meaning scientists just because their conclusions don't fit a certain agenda. Spoonkymonkey (talk) 20:33, 1 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Where are the gratuitous insults? Britain's physicists at CRU are under sustained attack, and the Institute of Physicists seems to be strongly supporting press misinformation rather than the physicists. Let's see how their submission stands up to questioning. . . dave souza, talk 22:06, 1 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Very disingenuous. Were it a bar association criticizing the work of some lawyers, it would be considered verifiable and pertinent information. Let's not manipulate Wikipedia based on your hopes that the IOP will have a tough time under questioning. And if they don't, I'm sure some other reason will arise. Spoonkymonkey (talk) 22:37, 1 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I agree with spoonkymonkey in comment above. now you global warming guys are imposing your own subjective beliefs on the entry. --Steve, Sm8900 (talk) 21:38, 2 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Spoonkymonkey, would you now explain why you think the IOP's statement is relevant to lots of global warming articles, and to this one in particular? I note that you have not yet attempted to make such a case. --TS 00:46, 2 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The IOP has made serious allegations about the peer review process and the loss'destruction of CRU data that, I believe, butresses the argument that IPCC findings based on CRU data need to be re-worked. The allegation of data destruction also casts a long shadow over CRU/IPCC conclusions and the science upon which they are based. You might have asked before you tried to shut the discussion down. This page is as good as any other AGW page, since it's a discussion of the science. If there is a better page, then by all means move it there, but don't just kill it. And let people know first. Spoonkymonkey (talk) 00:52, 2 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

My feeling on this is that we'd probably be waiting for a lot more than a submission to the Commons Select Committee (I hope you have read it, by the way, and understand how tentative it is) by one organisation, before we bagan to regard any substantial part of the climate change consensus to be in doubt. I think this piece is highly significant, however, and is likely to draw quite a lot of attention. So it should almost certainly find a place in an article on the event. --TS 17:53, 2 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Wikipedia is not news, and impatience is inappropriate when we now find the Institute of Physics forced to clarify submission to climate emails inquiry. The usual caution about headlines being written by sub-editors applies. . . dave souza, talk 19:23, 2 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Er, yes. We've been here so many times that I'm no longer surprised when something like the above (as explained in your Grauniad link) turns up. We have seen enough examples of pushes to incorporate stuff from news articles into Wikipedia articles on climate change, and subsequent events showing this to be a very short-sighted approach, that perhaps we should compile a list of examples for a general "Why we don't write about climate change on Wikipedia by listing stuff we got from newspapers" FAQ question. --TS 19:30, 2 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Aww, here was me thinking we should cover the political issue of Inhofe accused of turning climate row into 'McCarthyite witch-hunt' . . dave souza, talk 19:39, 2 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I see no reason to exclude reliable information, even if--no, make that especially if the source is a reliable newspaper. --Steve, Sm8900 (talk) 21:36, 2 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Select Committee

Interesting start. More relevant to detailed articles on the hacking incident, dave souza, talk 19:58, 1 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I don't know why we're discussing this and the IOP piece here. Both would be relevant to the Climatic Research Unit documents article, perhaps, or to an article devoted to the Committee hearing to which it was submitted. Tasty monster (TS on one of those new fangled telephone thingies) 22:45, 1 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

We needn't (and shouldn't) discuss the Select Committee investigation at this article, but the sub-article on it should be quickly and easily found from here.

Needless to say, it isn't. I've searched for two of the obvious links ("Select" and "UK") and neither lead anywhere. This despite the fact we've been told in no uncertain terms that "search" of text is the way to find things.

I'll ask the question again - what's the point of this suite of articles? In my experience, coming here to have my questions answered, it's currently an obstacle to people trying to inform themselves on this subject. It's no more than a social Forum for believers, the actual product is pretty much a complete waste of time for both writers and readers. MalcolmMcDonald (talk) 10:16, 3 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Nonsense. The article gives an encyclopedic overview of the topic (and has been recognized as doing a good job by several outside observers). If you want quick access to out-of-context soundbites, Google or any other search engine of your choice is available. If you want a running commentary of the latest developments, check a news aggregator. Neither of this is the role of Wikipedia. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 10:43, 3 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Rv: why

You shouldn't change the dates without changing the numbers William M. Connolley (talk) 08:57, 2 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Ah . dave souza, talk 09:35, 2 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

reference 123 doesn't work

....reference 123 is a non-working link —Preceding unsigned comment added by 24.14.35.16 (talk) 16:44, 4 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Updated, works again. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 16:50, 4 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Scafetta etc on solar variation

I reverted this edit mainly because I think the detail article ought to be used to deal with issues of weight and whatnot, prior to incorporating summarised content back here. --TS 22:05, 4 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

That, plus S+W is a bad paper William M. Connolley (talk) 23:22, 4 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Global warming 95% confidence

I wanted to toss up this. The current article states the very likely 90% confidence that human activities are primary cause of global warming. However it seems some are willing to go for 95%

"The study, by senior scientists from the Met Office Hadley Centre, Edinburgh University, Melbourne University and Victoria University in Canada, concluded that there was an “increasingly remote possibility” that the sceptics were right that human activities were having no discernible impact. There was a less than 5 per cent likelihood that natural variations in climate were responsible for the changes."

And

"The study said that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had understated mankind’s overall contribution to climate change."

As 95% is the standard confidence interval cut off for any scientific conclusion, this is essentially saying human activities are the source of global warming/climate change. Not very likely.....

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7050341.ece

--Snowman frosty (talk) 22:24, 4 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I wouldn't want to put too much weight on this one panel. If similar panels report the same general trend--that IPCC has significantly underestimated the role of human activities--then we might want to tweak the article a bit, but it's basically sound for now. --TS 22:36, 4 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

These confidence interval are different from the convention frequency based ones applied with observations that are validated in statistically tested hypothesis. These are simply matters of opinion on a Bayesian probability scale to demonstrate Face validity. The scale is arbitrarily calibrated to whim and the IPCC mission. Your comment indicates this common confusion and this article could be improved with this distinction, I've made this point is the past with sources and it was reverted. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 22:41, 4 March 2010 (UTC) I have yet to see Global Warming be Validity_(statistics) by anything but a panel's face value. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 22:47, 4 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

For reporting something as important as this overall figure, something like the IPCC is the best source. And we shouldn't be reporting the latest news. And it would be necessary to read the actual paper - we wouldn't use the Times's paraphrase, of course William M. Connolley (talk) 23:18, 4 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

There are concerns about the methods and conclusions of the IPCC right now. It would be better to go direct to peer reviewed literature. Frendinius (talk) 07:38, 5 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

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