Talk:Climate change
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Frequently asked questions
Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on climate change?
A1: Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. This scientific consensus is supported by over 99% of publishing climate scientists.[1]
Q2: How can we say climate change is real when it's been so cold in such-and-such a place?
A2: This is why it is termed "global warming", not "(such-and-such a place) warming". Even then, what rises is the average temperature over time – that is, the temperature will fluctuate up and down within the overall rising trend. To give an idea of the relevant time scales, the standard averaging period specified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 30 years. Accordingly, the WMO defines climate change as "a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)."[2] Q3: Can't the increase of CO2 be from natural sources, like volcanoes or the oceans?
A3: While these claims are popular among global warming skeptics,[3][4] including academically trained ones,[5][6] they are incorrect. This is known from any of several perspectives:
Q4: I think the article is missing some things, or has some things wrong. Can I change it?
A4: Yes. Keep in mind that your points need to be based on documented evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, or other information that meets standards of verifiability, reliability, and no original research. If you do not have such evidence, more experienced editors may be able to help you find it (or confirm that such evidence does not exist). You are welcome to make such queries on the article's talk page but please keep in mind that the talk page is for discussing improvements to the article, not discussing the topic. There are many forums that welcome general discussions of global warming, but the article talk page is not such a forum. Q5: Why haven't the graphs been updated?
A5: Two reasons:
Q6: Isn't climate change "just a theory"?
A6: People who say this are abusing the word "theory" by conflating its common meaning with its scientific meaning.
In common usage, "theory" can mean a hunch or guess, but a scientific theory, roughly speaking, means a coherent set of explanations that is compatible with observations and that allows predictions to be made. That the temperature is rising is an observation. An explanation for this (also known as a hypothesis) is that the warming is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (such as CO2 and methane) released into the atmosphere by human activity. Scientific models have been built that predict the rise in temperature and these predictions have matched observations. When scientists gain confidence in a hypothesis because it matches observation and has survived intense scrutiny, the hypothesis may be called a "theory". Strictly speaking, scientific theories are never proven, but the degree of confidence in a theory can be discussed. The scientific models now suggest that it is "extremely likely" (>95%) to "virtually certain" (>99%) that the increases in temperature have been caused by human activity as discussed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Global warming via greenhouse gases by human activity is a theory (in the scientific sense), but it is most definitely not just a hunch or guess. Q7: Does methane cause more warming than CO2?
A7: It's true that methane is more potent molecule for molecule. But there's far less of it in the atmosphere, so the total effect is smaller. The atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO2 (hundreds to thousands of years), so when methane emissions are reduced the concentration in the atmosphere soon falls, whereas CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere over long periods. For details see the greenhouse gas and global warming potential articles.
Q8: How can you say there's a consensus when lists of "skeptical scientists" have been compiled?
A8: Consensus is not the same as unanimity, the latter of which is impractical for large groups. Over 99% of publishing climate scientists agree on anthropogenic climate change.[1] This is an extremely high percentage well past any reasonable threshold for consensus. Any list of "skeptical scientists" would be dwarfed by a comparably compiled list of scientists accepting anthropogenic climate change. Q9: Did climate change end in 1998?
A9: One of the strongest El Niño events in the instrumental record occurred during late 1997 through 1998, causing a spike in global temperature for 1998. Through the mid-late 2000s this abnormally warm year could be chosen as the starting point for comparisons with later years in order to produce a cooling trend; choosing any other year in the 20th century produced a warming trend. This no longer holds since the mean global temperatures in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998.[12]
More importantly, scientists do not define a "trend" by looking at the difference between two given years. Instead they use methods such as linear regression that take into account all the values in a series of data. The World Meteorological Organisation specifies 30 years as the standard averaging period for climate statistics so that year-to-year fluctuations are averaged out;[2] thus, 10 years isn't long enough to detect a climate trend. Q10: Wasn't Greenland much warmer during the period of Norse settlement?
A10: Some people assume this because of the island's name. In fact the Saga of Erik the Red tells us Erik named the new colony Greenland because "men will desire much the more to go there if the land has a good name."[13] Advertising hype was alive and well in 985 AD.
While much of Greenland was and remains under a large ice sheet, the areas of Greenland that were settled by the Norse were coastal areas with fjords that, to this day, remain quite green. You can see the following images for reference:
Q11: Are the IPCC reports prepared by biased UN scientists?
A11: The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and it has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by various organizations including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties. Q12: Hasn't global sea ice increased over the last 30 years?
A12: Measurements show that it has not.[14] Claims that global sea ice amounts have stayed the same or increased are a result of cherry picking two data points to compare, while ignoring the real (strongly statistically significant) downward trend in measurements of global sea ice amounts.
Arctic sea ice cover is declining strongly; Antarctic sea ice cover has had some much smaller increases, though it may or may not be thinning, and the Southern Ocean is warming. The net global ice-cover trend is clearly downwards. Q13: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that the Earth was cooling instead of warming?
A13: They weren't – see the article on global cooling. An article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has reviewed the scientific literature at that time and found that even during the 1970s the prevailing scientific concern was over warming.[15] The common misperception that cooling was the main concern during the 1970s arose from a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, such as a short nine-paragraph article that appeared in Newsweek in 1975.[16] (Newsweek eventually apologized for having misrepresented the state of the science in the 1970s.)[17] The author of that article has repudiated the idea that it should be used to deny global warming.[18] Q14: Doesn't water vapour cause 98% of the greenhouse effect?
A14: Water vapour is indeed a major greenhouse gas, contributing about 36% to 70% (not 98%) of the total greenhouse effect. But water vapour has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days), compared with decades to centuries for greenhouse gases like CO2 or nitrous oxide. As a result it is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, which globally maintains a nearly constant relative humidity. In simpler terms, any excess water vapour is removed by rainfall, and any deficit of water vapour is replenished by evaporation from the Earth's surface, which literally has oceans of water. Thus water vapour cannot act as a driver of climate change.
Rising temperatures caused by the long-lived greenhouse gases will however allow the atmosphere to hold more vapour. This will lead to an increase in the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Since water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, this is an example of a positive feedback. Thus, whereas water vapour is not a driver of climate change, it amplifies existing trends. Q15: Is the fact that other solar system bodies are warming evidence for a common cause (i.e. the sun)?
A15: While some solar system bodies show evidence of local or global climate change, there is no evidence for a common cause of warming.
Q16: Do scientists support climate change just to get more money?
A16: No,
Q17: Doesn't the climate vary even without human activity?
A17: It does, but the fact that natural variation occurs does not mean that human-induced change cannot also occur. Climate scientists have extensively studied natural causes of climate change (such as orbital changes, volcanism, and solar variation) and have ruled them out as an explanation for the current temperature increase. Human activity is the cause at the 95 to 99 percent confidence level (see the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for details). The high level of certainty in this is important to keep in mind to spot mention of natural variation functioning as a distraction. Q18: Should we include the view that climate change will lead to planetary doom or catastrophe?
A18: This page is about the science of climate change. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe. For a technical explanation, see catastrophic climate change, and for paleoclimatic examples see PETM and great dying. Q19: Is an increase in global temperature of, say, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) important?
A19: Though it may not sound like much, a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is huge in climate terms. For example, the sea level rise it would produce would flood coastal cities around the world, which include most large cities.
Q20: Why are certain proposals to change the article discarded, deleted, or ignored? Who is/was Scibaby?
A20: Scibaby is/was a long term abusive sock-master (or coordinated group of sock masters) who has created 1,027 confirmed sock puppets, another 167 suspected socks, and probably many untagged or unrecognized ones. This page lists some recent creations. His modus operandi has changed over time, but includes proposing reasonably worded additions on the talk page that only on close examination turn out to be irrelevant, misinterpreted, or give undue weight to certain aspects. Scibaby is banned, and Scibaby socks are blocked as soon as they are identified. Some editors silently revert his additions, per WP:DENY, while others still assume good faith even for likely socks and engage them. Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer-reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...?
A21: There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published every month in respected scientific journals such as Geophysical Research Letters, the Journal of Climate, and others. We can't include all of them, but the article does include references to individual papers where there is consensus that they best represent the state of the relevant science. This is in accordance with the "due weight" principle (WP:WEIGHT) of the Neutral point of view policy and the "Wikipedia is not an indiscriminate collection of information" principle (WP:IINFO) of the What Wikipedia is not policy. Q22: Why does the article define "climate change" as a recent phenomenon? Hasn't the planet warmed and cooled before?
A22: Yes, the planet has warmed and cooled before. However, the term "climate change" without further qualification is widely understood to refer to the recent episode and often explicitly connected with the greenhouse effect. Per WP:COMMONNAME, we use the term in this most common meaning. The article Climate variability and change deals with the more general concept. Q23: Did the CERN CLOUD experiment prove that climate change is caused not by human activity but by cosmic rays?
A23: No. For cosmic rays to be causing global warming, all of the following would have to be true, whereas only the italicized one was tested in the 2011 experiment:[28]
Q24: I read that something can't fix climate change. Is this true?
A24: Yes, this is true for all plausible single things including: "electric cars", "planting trees", "low-carbon technology", "renewable energy", "Australia", "capitalism", "the doom & gloom approach", "a Ph.D. in thermodynamics". Note that it is problematic to use the word "fix" regarding climate change, as returning the climate to its pre-industrial state currently appears to be feasible only over a timeframe of thousands of years. Current efforts are instead aimed at mitigating (meaning limiting) climate change. Mitigation is strived for through the combination of many different things. See Climate change mitigation for details. References
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Section on temperature decline
Let's wait until the authorities announce a falling trend in global average temperatures
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It is now time that this article caught up with the reality of the situation and started addressing the recent decline in temperature. Scientists said they must explain better how a freezing winter this year in parts of the northern hemisphere and a break in a rising trend in global temperatures since 1998 can happen when heat-trapping gases are pouring into the atmosphere. "There is a lack of consensus," said Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, on why global temperatures have not matched a peak set in 1998, or in 2005 according to one US analysis. For a table of world temperatures: Part of the explanation could be a failure to account for rapid warming in parts of the Arctic, where sea ice had melted, and where there were fewer monitoring stations, he said. [1] What should this section be called? I suggest: "21st century pause in temperature" as the least POV title I can think of. What do other editors think it should be called? Isonomia (talk) 21:54, 25 February 2010 (UTC)
The bottom line is there has been an 8,000-year cooling trend, according to the ice core data. It's cooler now than in the Roman Warm Period, cooler than in the Medieval Warm Period. The trend is flat since the 1930s, and flat for the last 10 years. How many different ways does it have to be shown that the Earth isn't warming? Kauffner (talk) 03:13, 28 February 2010 (UTC)
NOOOO My beautiful matrixes!!! Ignignot (talk) 20:48, 4 March 2010 (UTC) |
A handful of POV issues.
- The article also omits any mention of CO2/$GNP statistics, which biases it towards its conclusion that the US is a worse offender than China when the reverse is true in terms of energy efficiency relative to wealth generation. This is a hotly contested policy issue, and the article takes sides by relying solely on the CO2 per capita statistic.
- The article does not distinguish between skeptics of the science and skeptics of the economics, making opponents of radical climate-change policies seem like know-nothings. In fact, there are many skeptics who fully acknowledge the existence of and scientific consensus for anthropogenic global warming, but believe the damage to the economy from drastic limits on carbon emissions would far outweigh the damage from global warming itself.
- The article falsely characterizes the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute with the pejorative and incorrect adjective "business-centered." A featured article should have no need to poison the well. I would hope that it's uncontroversial that I corrected this line-item. THF (talk) 12:55, 1 March 2010 (UTC)
- The File:GHG_per_capita_2000.svg map pushes the POV that the US is a particularly bad offender: you will see that the green bars are very narrow, while the red bars take up 80% of the range. A neutral map would have the US colored in at greenish yellow rather than dark orange. THF (talk) 13:07, 1 March 2010 (UTC)
- Being a die-hard capitalist I don't see "business centered" as pejorative. Nor as false, for that matter. They say themselves that they are "dedicated to free enterprise," which is essentially the same thing. Maybe "market oriented" or similar wording? Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 14:43, 1 March 2010 (UTC)
- Being dedicated to "free enterprise" isn't necessarily "business centered": many businesses prefer to engage in rent seeking rather than free market competition. I'd be alright with "free-market." THF (talk) 14:54, 1 March 2010 (UTC)
- This is getting a bit esoteric for Wikipedia, but I think your edit does make the article clearer. The organizations in question tend to be ideologically libertarian, and most of them seem to be avowedly so. --TS 02:09, 3 March 2010 (UTC)
- Thanks. Any thoughts on the other three issues? THF (talk) 03:54, 3 March 2010 (UTC)
- (outdent) (1) List of countries by ratio of GDP to carbon dioxide emissions has the data set, I can make a map and add a sentence in. (2) I think you're right, just need a source, I'll look for some, but no promises. (3) "free-market" works. (4) It's correct, the map is normalized, while the key is kept as it is, linear. The data is not uniformly distributed (which would work best for maps like this) or normally distributed, in fact it is very high skewed. If we kept everything linear you'd have about five islands of solid red in a solid sea of green. In order to get a decent color gradient, you have to put it though a statical transformation. I think this might be a power law transformation, maybe exponential. You can of course transform both the key and the map, but transformed keys are cumbersome to read. ChyranandChloe (talk) 08:46, 3 March 2010 (UTC)
We Need to Work This Criticism into the Appropriate AGW Articles
Please discuss this at Talk:Institute of Physics, Talk:Climatic Research Unit, or Talk:Climatic Research Unit hacking incident. - 2/0 (cont.) 21:53, 2 March 2010 (UTC)
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The British Institute of Physics is concerned about CRU information and research policies: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/memo/climatedata/uc3902.htm Any suggestions on how to reach a consensus on where and how to include this?Spoonkymonkey (talk) 16:15, 1 March 2010 (UTC) This, too: The ICO accuses University of East Anglia of misleading Parliament: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/memo/climatedata/uc3902.htm Civility and focus on the project will be greatly appreciated. Spoonkymonkey (talk) 16:19, 1 March 2010 (UTC)
It is the full institute. Here is the link from their web page: http://www.iop.org/activity/policy/Consultations/Energy_and_Environment/file_39010.pdf It is important, and I hope you can be civil. This is the link to the Times article about the ICO and the University of East Anglia: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7043566.ece As I said, I am hoping we can had a constructive discussion on how to work this material into the AGW-issue articles, and I hope we can develop consensus about which articles are best suited for this information. Spoonkymonkey (talk) 16:53, 1 March 2010 (UTC)
Gratuitousd insults of Britain's physicists is hardly a mature way to deal with the issues raised by people who have more training in science than you. Normally, the AGW crowd is deferential to scientists, but now it seems they pick and choose, based on whether they are inside or outside the laager. I am not suggesting haste. Far from it. I know the material needs to be included in the CRU Hacking article but I believe their concerns about the quality of the CRU's science should be included in other articles. So let's deal with this maturely, not by making up "splinter groups" and denigrating well-meaning scientists just because their conclusions don't fit a certain agenda. Spoonkymonkey (talk) 20:33, 1 March 2010 (UTC)
Spoonkymonkey, would you now explain why you think the IOP's statement is relevant to lots of global warming articles, and to this one in particular? I note that you have not yet attempted to make such a case. --TS 00:46, 2 March 2010 (UTC) The IOP has made serious allegations about the peer review process and the loss'destruction of CRU data that, I believe, butresses the argument that IPCC findings based on CRU data need to be re-worked. The allegation of data destruction also casts a long shadow over CRU/IPCC conclusions and the science upon which they are based. You might have asked before you tried to shut the discussion down. This page is as good as any other AGW page, since it's a discussion of the science. If there is a better page, then by all means move it there, but don't just kill it. And let people know first. Spoonkymonkey (talk) 00:52, 2 March 2010 (UTC)
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Select Committee
Interesting start. More relevant to detailed articles on the hacking incident, dave souza, talk 19:58, 1 March 2010 (UTC)
I don't know why we're discussing this and the IOP piece here. Both would be relevant to the Climatic Research Unit documents article, perhaps, or to an article devoted to the Committee hearing to which it was submitted. Tasty monster (TS on one of those new fangled telephone thingies) 22:45, 1 March 2010 (UTC)
- We needn't (and shouldn't) discuss the Select Committee investigation at this article, but the sub-article on it should be quickly and easily found from here.
- Needless to say, it isn't. I've searched for two of the obvious links ("Select" and "UK") and neither lead anywhere. This despite the fact we've been told in no uncertain terms that "search" of text is the way to find things.
- I'll ask the question again - what's the point of this suite of articles? In my experience, coming here to have my questions answered, it's currently an obstacle to people trying to inform themselves on this subject. It's no more than a social Forum for believers, the actual product is pretty much a complete waste of time for both writers and readers. MalcolmMcDonald (talk) 10:16, 3 March 2010 (UTC)
- Nonsense. The article gives an encyclopedic overview of the topic (and has been recognized as doing a good job by several outside observers). If you want quick access to out-of-context soundbites, Google or any other search engine of your choice is available. If you want a running commentary of the latest developments, check a news aggregator. Neither of this is the role of Wikipedia. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 10:43, 3 March 2010 (UTC)
Rv: why
You shouldn't change the dates without changing the numbers William M. Connolley (talk) 08:57, 2 March 2010 (UTC)
reference 123 doesn't work
....reference 123 is a non-working link —Preceding unsigned comment added by 24.14.35.16 (talk) 16:44, 4 March 2010 (UTC)
- Updated, works again. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 16:50, 4 March 2010 (UTC)
Scafetta etc on solar variation
I reverted this edit mainly because I think the detail article ought to be used to deal with issues of weight and whatnot, prior to incorporating summarised content back here. --TS 22:05, 4 March 2010 (UTC)
- That, plus S+W is a bad paper William M. Connolley (talk) 23:22, 4 March 2010 (UTC)
Global warming 95% confidence
I wanted to toss up this. The current article states the very likely 90% confidence that human activities are primary cause of global warming. However it seems some are willing to go for 95%
"The study, by senior scientists from the Met Office Hadley Centre, Edinburgh University, Melbourne University and Victoria University in Canada, concluded that there was an “increasingly remote possibility” that the sceptics were right that human activities were having no discernible impact. There was a less than 5 per cent likelihood that natural variations in climate were responsible for the changes."
And
"The study said that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had understated mankind’s overall contribution to climate change."
As 95% is the standard confidence interval cut off for any scientific conclusion, this is essentially saying human activities are the source of global warming/climate change. Not very likely.....
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7050341.ece
--Snowman frosty (talk) 22:24, 4 March 2010 (UTC)
- I wouldn't want to put too much weight on this one panel. If similar panels report the same general trend--that IPCC has significantly underestimated the role of human activities--then we might want to tweak the article a bit, but it's basically sound for now. --TS 22:36, 4 March 2010 (UTC)
- These confidence interval are different from the convention frequency based ones applied with observations that are validated in statistically tested hypothesis. These are simply matters of opinion on a Bayesian probability scale to demonstrate Face validity. The scale is arbitrarily calibrated to whim and the IPCC mission. Your comment indicates this common confusion and this article could be improved with this distinction, I've made this point is the past with sources and it was reverted. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 22:41, 4 March 2010 (UTC) I have yet to see Global Warming be Validity_(statistics) by anything but a panel's face value. Zulu Papa 5 ☆ (talk) 22:47, 4 March 2010 (UTC)
- For reporting something as important as this overall figure, something like the IPCC is the best source. And we shouldn't be reporting the latest news. And it would be necessary to read the actual paper - we wouldn't use the Times's paraphrase, of course William M. Connolley (talk) 23:18, 4 March 2010 (UTC)
- There are concerns about the methods and conclusions of the IPCC right now. It would be better to go direct to peer reviewed literature. Frendinius (talk) 07:38, 5 March 2010 (UTC)
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