Talk:Climate change
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Frequently asked questions To view an answer, click the [show] link to the right of the question. To view references used by an answer, you must also click the [show] for references at the bottom of the FAQ. Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on climate change?
A1: Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. This scientific consensus is supported by over 99% of publishing climate scientists.[1]
Q2: How can we say climate change is real when it's been so cold in such-and-such a place?
A2: This is why it is termed "global warming", not "(such-and-such a place) warming". Even then, what rises is the average temperature over time – that is, the temperature will fluctuate up and down within the overall rising trend. To give an idea of the relevant time scales, the standard averaging period specified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 30 years. Accordingly, the WMO defines climate change as "a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)."[2] Q3: Can't the increase of CO2 be from natural sources, like volcanoes or the oceans?
A3: While these claims are popular among global warming skeptics,[3][4] including academically trained ones,[5][6] they are incorrect. This is known from any of several perspectives:
Q4: I think the article is missing some things, or has some things wrong. Can I change it?
A4: Yes. Keep in mind that your points need to be based on documented evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, or other information that meets standards of verifiability, reliability, and no original research. If you do not have such evidence, more experienced editors may be able to help you find it (or confirm that such evidence does not exist). You are welcome to make such queries on the article's talk page but please keep in mind that the talk page is for discussing improvements to the article, not discussing the topic. There are many forums that welcome general discussions of global warming, but the article talk page is not such a forum. Q5: Why haven't the graphs been updated?
A5: Two reasons:
Q6: Isn't climate change "just a theory"?
A6: People who say this are abusing the word "theory" by conflating its common meaning with its scientific meaning.
In common usage, "theory" can mean a hunch or guess, but a scientific theory, roughly speaking, means a coherent set of explanations that is compatible with observations and that allows predictions to be made. That the temperature is rising is an observation. An explanation for this (also known as a hypothesis) is that the warming is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (such as CO2 and methane) released into the atmosphere by human activity. Scientific models have been built that predict the rise in temperature and these predictions have matched observations. When scientists gain confidence in a hypothesis because it matches observation and has survived intense scrutiny, the hypothesis may be called a "theory". Strictly speaking, scientific theories are never proven, but the degree of confidence in a theory can be discussed. The scientific models now suggest that it is "extremely likely" (>95%) to "virtually certain" (>99%) that the increases in temperature have been caused by human activity as discussed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Global warming via greenhouse gases by human activity is a theory (in the scientific sense), but it is most definitely not just a hunch or guess. Q7: Does methane cause more warming than CO2?
A7: It's true that methane is more potent molecule for molecule. But there's far less of it in the atmosphere, so the total effect is smaller. The atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO2 (hundreds to thousands of years), so when methane emissions are reduced the concentration in the atmosphere soon falls, whereas CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere over long periods. For details see the greenhouse gas and global warming potential articles.
Q8: How can you say there's a consensus when lists of "skeptical scientists" have been compiled?
A8: Consensus is not the same as unanimity, the latter of which is impractical for large groups. Over 99% of publishing climate scientists agree on anthropogenic climate change.[1] This is an extremely high percentage well past any reasonable threshold for consensus. Any list of "skeptical scientists" would be dwarfed by a comparably compiled list of scientists accepting anthropogenic climate change. Q9: Did climate change end in 1998?
A9: One of the strongest El Niño events in the instrumental record occurred during late 1997 through 1998, causing a spike in global temperature for 1998. Through the mid-late 2000s this abnormally warm year could be chosen as the starting point for comparisons with later years in order to produce a cooling trend; choosing any other year in the 20th century produced a warming trend. This no longer holds since the mean global temperatures in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998.[12]
More importantly, scientists do not define a "trend" by looking at the difference between two given years. Instead they use methods such as linear regression that take into account all the values in a series of data. The World Meteorological Organisation specifies 30 years as the standard averaging period for climate statistics so that year-to-year fluctuations are averaged out;[2] thus, 10 years isn't long enough to detect a climate trend. Q10: Wasn't Greenland much warmer during the period of Norse settlement?
A10: Some people assume this because of the island's name. In fact the Saga of Erik the Red tells us Erik named the new colony Greenland because "men will desire much the more to go there if the land has a good name."[13] Advertising hype was alive and well in 985 AD.
While much of Greenland was and remains under a large ice sheet, the areas of Greenland that were settled by the Norse were coastal areas with fjords that, to this day, remain quite green. You can see the following images for reference:
Q11: Are the IPCC reports prepared by biased UN scientists?
A11: The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and it has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by various organizations including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties. Q12: Hasn't global sea ice increased over the last 30 years?
A12: Measurements show that it has not.[14] Claims that global sea ice amounts have stayed the same or increased are a result of cherry picking two data points to compare, while ignoring the real (strongly statistically significant) downward trend in measurements of global sea ice amounts.
Arctic sea ice cover is declining strongly; Antarctic sea ice cover has had some much smaller increases, though it may or may not be thinning, and the Southern Ocean is warming. The net global ice-cover trend is clearly downwards. Q13: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that the Earth was cooling instead of warming?
A13: They weren't – see the article on global cooling. An article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has reviewed the scientific literature at that time and found that even during the 1970s the prevailing scientific concern was over warming.[15] The common misperception that cooling was the main concern during the 1970s arose from a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, such as a short nine-paragraph article that appeared in Newsweek in 1975.[16] (Newsweek eventually apologized for having misrepresented the state of the science in the 1970s.)[17] The author of that article has repudiated the idea that it should be used to deny global warming.[18] Q14: Doesn't water vapour cause 98% of the greenhouse effect?
A14: Water vapour is indeed a major greenhouse gas, contributing about 36% to 70% (not 98%) of the total greenhouse effect. But water vapour has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days), compared with decades to centuries for greenhouse gases like CO2 or nitrous oxide. As a result it is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, which globally maintains a nearly constant relative humidity. In simpler terms, any excess water vapour is removed by rainfall, and any deficit of water vapour is replenished by evaporation from the Earth's surface, which literally has oceans of water. Thus water vapour cannot act as a driver of climate change.
Rising temperatures caused by the long-lived greenhouse gases will however allow the atmosphere to hold more vapour. This will lead to an increase in the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Since water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, this is an example of a positive feedback. Thus, whereas water vapour is not a driver of climate change, it amplifies existing trends. Q15: Is the fact that other solar system bodies are warming evidence for a common cause (i.e. the sun)?
A15: While some solar system bodies show evidence of local or global climate change, there is no evidence for a common cause of warming.
Q16: Do scientists support climate change just to get more money?
A16: No,
Q17: Doesn't the climate vary even without human activity?
A17: It does, but the fact that natural variation occurs does not mean that human-induced change cannot also occur. Climate scientists have extensively studied natural causes of climate change (such as orbital changes, volcanism, and solar variation) and have ruled them out as an explanation for the current temperature increase. Human activity is the cause at the 95 to 99 percent confidence level (see the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for details). The high level of certainty in this is important to keep in mind to spot mention of natural variation functioning as a distraction. Q18: Should we include the view that climate change will lead to planetary doom or catastrophe?
A18: This page is about the science of climate change. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe. For a technical explanation, see catastrophic climate change, and for paleoclimatic examples see PETM and great dying. Q19: Is an increase in global temperature of, say, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) important?
A19: Though it may not sound like much, a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is huge in climate terms. For example, the sea level rise it would produce would flood coastal cities around the world, which include most large cities.
Q20: Why are certain proposals to change the article discarded, deleted, or ignored? Who is/was Scibaby?
A20: Scibaby is/was a long term abusive sock-master (or coordinated group of sock masters) who has created 1,027 confirmed sock puppets, another 167 suspected socks, and probably many untagged or unrecognized ones. This page lists some recent creations. His modus operandi has changed over time, but includes proposing reasonably worded additions on the talk page that only on close examination turn out to be irrelevant, misinterpreted, or give undue weight to certain aspects. Scibaby is banned, and Scibaby socks are blocked as soon as they are identified. Some editors silently revert his additions, per WP:DENY, while others still assume good faith even for likely socks and engage them. Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer-reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...?
A21: There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published every month in respected scientific journals such as Geophysical Research Letters, the Journal of Climate, and others. We can't include all of them, but the article does include references to individual papers where there is consensus that they best represent the state of the relevant science. This is in accordance with the "due weight" principle (WP:WEIGHT) of the Neutral point of view policy and the "Wikipedia is not an indiscriminate collection of information" principle (WP:IINFO) of the What Wikipedia is not policy. Q22: Why does the article define "climate change" as a recent phenomenon? Hasn't the planet warmed and cooled before?
A22: Yes, the planet has warmed and cooled before. However, the term "climate change" without further qualification is widely understood to refer to the recent episode and often explicitly connected with the greenhouse effect. Per WP:COMMONNAME, we use the term in this most common meaning. The article Climate variability and change deals with the more general concept. Q23: Did the CERN CLOUD experiment prove that climate change is caused not by human activity but by cosmic rays?
A23: No. For cosmic rays to be causing global warming, all of the following would have to be true, whereas only the italicized one was tested in the 2011 experiment:[28]
Q24: I read that something can't fix climate change. Is this true?
A24: Yes, this is true for all plausible single things including: "electric cars", "planting trees", "low-carbon technology", "renewable energy", "Australia", "capitalism", "the doom & gloom approach", "a Ph.D. in thermodynamics". Note that it is problematic to use the word "fix" regarding climate change, as returning the climate to its pre-industrial state currently appears to be feasible only over a timeframe of thousands of years. Current efforts are instead aimed at mitigating (meaning limiting) climate change. Mitigation is strived for through the combination of many different things. See Climate change mitigation for details. References
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Index 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90 91, 92, 93, 94, 95 |
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Sentence and Citation to Number of Scientific Entities that Support Consensus
I propose adding the following sentence both to the intro section of the article and also separately to the lower down "scientific discussion" section.
"Nearly 200 worldwide scientific organizations hold the position that climate change has been caused by human action."
The citation is here: http://opr.ca.gov/s_listoforganizations.php
In that citation, the California Governor's Office of Planning and Research lists 197 organizations, and provides links to their websites. Unfortunately, the links are not to the specific parts of the websites where they evidence their support, but in my view the original page should be trusted as an authoritative statement, due to the scrutiny such an office would face for posting such a statement and list on this topic. I believe citing this number adds to users' understanding of the topic, because while the current version talks about the percentage-support in the literature, it does not discuss the number of important organizations that support this view. Please let me know your response and if the answer is yes, edit the page accordingly.
Thank you.
TheDumbMoney (talk) 01:59, 17 May 2014 (UTC)TheDumbMoney
- Hi Money, thanks for the link and suggestion. Initially I was in favor, but now I'm dubious because the source doesn't tell us what filter they use for "scientific organization"? I mean, gee.... the Dept of Biology at University of Nevada is a "scientific organization" aren't they? If they had a position on climate change (and I have no idea if that is true) then would they be eligible for inclusion on this list? Question Noting that we already link to Scientific opinion on climate change, do you think our related text here could be improved somehow? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 06:49, 17 May 2014 (UTC)
---
- I am sorry, I do not yet know how to do the indent. Looking at the list, the filter is two categories only. 1) Country-specific organizations associated with a whole country and/or sponsored by its government (e.g., Royal Irish Academy); or 2) nationwide or worldwide field-specific associations of scientists (e.g., American Anthropological Association). In other words, the list is limited to the largest groups. This corresponds with the "scientific body of national or international standing" language in the Scientific Opinion on Climate Change article. In other words, the OPR in California is plainly attempting to create a long list, but it is being rather conservative about it, excluding things like the Department of Biology at University of Nevada, because while I'm sure whatever department that is is great, it is not a scientific organization of national or international standing. One way to re-write my original text that might be better and respond to your valid critique is: "By one list, nearly 200 scientific bodies of national or international standing hold the position that climate change has been caused by human action." Using the same citation. What strikes me is that the current "scientific discussion" section in the article talks wholly in terms of percentages, and does not attempt to put a total number of any kind on the status of scientific opinion among organizations. My revision above would qualify the finality of the list, while providing such a service, at least as a placeholder until more data could be found. TheDumbMoney (talk) 17:48, 17 May 2014 (UTC)TheDumbMoney
CO2 Levels 20M Years Ago vs. Today
When educating those people not convinced that human activity is the root cause of global warming, the following 2 sentences from this Wikipedia entry are being constantly referenced as some kind of proof that whatever took place 20M years ago may well be happening today. (Please see quote from article below). Please, would someone with a better understanding of what exactly took place 20M years ago and why that phenomenon is not repeating itself today add something here to make the narrative a bit smoother.
- "... (CO2) levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores.[75][76][77][78] Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO2 values higher than this were last seen about 20 million years ago"
Cheers! Meishern (talk) 08:02, 18 May 2014 (UTC)
- I think the intent is to say there is a direct record (air bubbles) going back X years, and geologic proxy record going even further back; That the air bubbles in the direct record have lower CO2, and the most recent proxy records of around 400ppm CO2 are about 20M years ago. It doesn't seem to say anything else to me, so I don't really understand what you're asking. Did you leave out a citation to something that discusses all this? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 08:30, 18 May 2014 (UTC)
- The objection is not clear, but my guess is that the objector wants the statement of fact to include an additional statement explaining how scientists know the current global temperature anomaly is not due to thew same mechanisms that occurred "20 million years ago." If my guess is correct, then the additional statement is not necessary: the entire article addresses how scientists know the current global temperature anomaly was caused and is caused by human activities. Desertphile (talk) 13:17, 24 May 2014 (UTC)
- During times with high CO2 content, different life forms existed than today (humans didn't evolved in such a climax) and more Co2/heat means less and less advanced forms of life. prokaryotes (talk) 07:34, 14 June 2014 (UTC)
- The objection is not clear, but my guess is that the objector wants the statement of fact to include an additional statement explaining how scientists know the current global temperature anomaly is not due to thew same mechanisms that occurred "20 million years ago." If my guess is correct, then the additional statement is not necessary: the entire article addresses how scientists know the current global temperature anomaly was caused and is caused by human activities. Desertphile (talk) 13:17, 24 May 2014 (UTC)
What about personal experience?
You know, the experience of those who have walked past a smoke-belching factory and seen the temperature go up and the air become thick and uncomfortable as they approached it? The experience pf just watching the waves of heat rise above a traffic jam? Is this collected and documented anywhere? DeistCosmos (talk) 05:24, 6 June 2014 (UTC)
- I've never been able to think of anything that humans do that produces a net cooling effect in the local environment, but I don't know if the effects have been collected and summed. HiLo48 (talk) 05:31, 6 June 2014 (UTC)
- Are you asking about the use of personal observation and experience in establishing the existence (or not) of global warming? Such first-person reporting would be in the nature of journalism, a form of a original research, and likely not even a reliable source. ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 23:34, 6 June 2014 (UTC)
Auto archiving appears to be busted
I have a love-hate thing going with the archival templates. Would someone better skilled than I please figure out why old threads are lingering? ThanksNewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:47, 6 June 2014 (UTC)
- I think it's working right? It keeps 8 threads and only works once/day. There are 8 old threads and two threads updated today so I don't see any malfunction... Sailsbystars (talk) 02:14, 7 June 2014 (UTC)
- Sorry, my bad. I didn't think to check the specific number of oldies to keep. I don't think I've ever noticed a number higher than 4 for that setting, and was just assuming. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 06:06, 7 June 2014 (UTC)
Lead too long
While the content of the introduction is of a high quality, it does not "briefly summarize" the article. I hesitate at putting this template in the article itself, due to its scientific nature and Featured status. However, the introduction is bloated and should be at most four paragraphs. Thanks, Greggydude (talk) 09:35, 14 June 2014 (UTC)
- Indeed, way to much information in the lead atm. There shouldn't be a wall of text. prokaryotes (talk) 11:36, 14 June 2014 (UTC)
OK. Let's look at it collaboratively. The lead should summarise the article's main points, so first here is a list of the main headings of the body of the article:
- Observed temperature changes
- Initial causes of temperature changes (external forcings)
- Feedback
- Climate models
- Observed and expected environmental effects
- Observed and expected effects on social systems
- Proposed policy responses to global warming
- Discourse about global warming
- Etymology
Here is my own outline of the paragraphs of the existing lead:
- Global warming is... definition, plus some observed figures
- Causes, per AR4
- * Quote from AR5
- Projections per AR4
- Effects and impacts globally
- Proposed policy responses - mitigation, adaptation etc
- Emissions growth (brief)
It is clear that there is some correlation, but some room for improvement. Perhaps we should aim for something like the following:
- Global warming is... definition, plus some observed figures
- Causes: Forcings and feedbacks, plus models
- Observed and expected environmental and social effects
- Proposed policy responses - mitigation, adaptation etc
- Discourse
It's still five paras, can anyone propose a better outline? Then we just need to write the paragraphs, based on the article text. Anything important currently in the lead, and referenced there, that is not in the body, should be merged into a better place rather than lost in the changes. --Nigelj (talk) 13:26, 15 June 2014 (UTC)
- Thanks for the effort; I had in mind going back to the day this article appeared as a featured article and compare what's changed since then, and what should be updated, but have not done that yet. As a preliminary matter, the subject of article title & scope has been on my mind since a January talk thread linked in the "revisit" subsection below.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 15:01, 15 June 2014 (UTC)
- I think the latest IPCC statement needs to be in the lead. Other than that i agree with Nigelj's proposed improvements. It is also a matter of how many details we include in each paragraph. prokaryotes (talk)
- Which of the multiple statements on the thousands of pages are you talking about? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 15:17, 15 June 2014 (UTC)
- Ofc, i refer to current lead content - the main findings. prokaryotes (talk) 16:06, 15 June 2014 (UTC)
- Which of the multiple statements on the thousands of pages are you talking about? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 15:17, 15 June 2014 (UTC)
- I think the latest IPCC statement needs to be in the lead. Other than that i agree with Nigelj's proposed improvements. It is also a matter of how many details we include in each paragraph. prokaryotes (talk)
- Suggestion for quick result, move the part from the lead below IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers, to a new section called "General". This way readers are not confronted with a "wall of text". prokaryotes (talk) 21:25, 18 June 2014 (UTC)
- Reminds me of when Mom told me to clean my room and I just shoved everything under the bed en masse. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 21:41, 18 June 2014 (UTC)
I am very much of the opinion that the lead is bloated and does not read well - I feel it is one of the weakest areas of this article, which is a shame since it is probably the most important. I fully support NigelJ's analysis and suggested structure. One dreadful example - in the very first sentence the use of the word "unequivocal" is terribly grating (much discussed, but inexplicably still present) - this is not part of a definition of global warming, which the opening sentence should be, but a comment on attitudes of scientists to global warming. Global warming is the identical phenomenon, regardless of whether it is seen as unequivocally true or not. Atshal (talk) 09:44, 22 June 2014 (UTC)
Proposed replacement for Lead paragraph
(A) I agree the lead is bloated.
(B) Before fixing the lead, we should look at the body
(C) Before reviewing the body, we should all be on the same page about article scope and to focus discussion I propose changing lead paragraph 1 so that it is consistent with the hatnote in place since 2011 ("This article is about the current change in Earth's climate.")
CURRENT TEXT
Global warming is the unequivocal and continuing rise in the average temperature of Earth's climate system.[2] Since 1971, 90% of the warming has occurred in the oceans.[3] Despite the oceans' dominant role in energy storage, the term "global warming" is also used to refer to increases in average temperature of the air and sea at Earth's surface.[4] Since the early 20th century, the global air and sea surface temperature has increased about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F), with about two-thirds of the increase occurring since 1980.[5]move the rest to body of article-
Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth's surface than any preceding decade since 1850.[1]
PROPOSED NEW FIRST PARAGRAPH
- In common speech, "global warming" is often used to describe the climate change Earth is now experiencing.see RSs below It's an accepted scientific fact that the planet's climate system is warming up.[2] The oceans, which provide a large buffer, have absorbed about 90% of the energy added to the climate system since 1970.[3] Much of the rest heats the atmosphere, where global surface temperatures have increased by about 1.4 °F (0.8 °C) over the past 100 years, with about 1.0 °F (0.6 °C) of this warming occurring since 1980.[4]
- In addition, add text (not yet drafted) to etymology section to include the narrow meaning of "global warming" related to increasing global surface temps
POSSIBLE RSs FOR SENTENCE 1
- 2011 Skeptical Science post while noting technical meaning notes
[T]o sum up, although the terms are used interchangeably because they are causally related, 'global warming' and 'climate change' refer to different physical phenomena. The term 'climate change' has been used frequently in the scientific literature for many decades, and the usage of both terms has increased over the past 40 years. Moreover, since the planet continues to warm, there is no reason to change the terminology. Perhaps the only individual to advocate the change was Frank Luntz, a Republican political strategist and global warming skeptic, who used focus group results to determine that the term 'climate change' is less frightening to the general public than 'global warming'. There is simply no factual basis whatsoever to the myth "they changed the name from global warming to climate change".
The two terms are often used interchangeably but they generate very different responses, the researchers from the Yale Project on Climate Change Communications and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communications said.
We use both "climate change" and "global warming" interchangeably.
The term scientists prefer is actually "climate change," because that encompasses effects other than warming, such as changes in rainfall patterns, melting glaciers and rising sea levels. There are several scholarly journals using the term "climate change," such as Nature Climate Change and Climatic Change and the International Journal of Climate Change. The 1992 treaty that governs global warming is called the "Framework Convention on Climate Change."
Global warming is a familiar term, so we feel justified in using it as a more concrete, but less complete, expression of the phenomenon.
- Aug 2010 Guardian, re: 35th anniversary of Broeker's coining phrase 'global warming'
I strongly doubt whether Wally Broecker realised that when his 1975 Science paper was titled "Are we on the brink of a pronounced global warming?" he knew that the term would go on to gain such international traction. I doubt, therefore, that he gave it much thought whether it would withstand the rigours of intense scrutiny and debate that it would attract over the coming decades. * * * [T]he two terms are largely interchangeable in common discussion, even though climate scientists will rightly argue there are subtle, but important distinctions.
[Q.] What is climate change? [A.] Overwhelming scientific evidence shows that there have been changes in the global climate since the early 1900s, and that these climate changes, and future climate change predicted over the next century, are largely due to human activities and excessive greenhouse gas emissions, which are warming up the Earth. This is climate change, often referred to as "global warming".
IN SUM This change would make the first paragraph consistent with the hatnote and better reflects the articles content. If the consensus is to use "global warming" to mean something other than the current climate change (e.g., being "just" about rising surf temps) then I think eds like DHeyward (talk · contribs) have a good point about the article going beyond its agreed scope. So what do YOU think? Is this about the current climate change, or just that part of the current climate change dealing with rising surf temps? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 15:07, 26 June 2014 (UTC)
- I have two problems with this, straight away. First, WP:NOT says "Encyclopedia articles are about a person, or a group, a concept, a place, a thing, an event, etc. In some cases, a word or phrase itself may be an encyclopedic subject, such as Macedonia (terminology) or truthiness." We are not writing an article about the phrase 'global warming', and that (the phrase) should not be the subject of the first sentence. The phrase is the topic of the hatnote, but that is what the hatnote is for. The article is about the warming of the globe, and should start on that topic straight way. Secondly, there is a serious false dichotomy in the question, 'Is this about the current climate change, or just that part of the current climate change dealing with rising surf temps?' A planet's climate depends on the total amount of energy in its climate system. If a planet's climate is going to change, there is only one possible axis of change, and only two possible directions of change: more energy or less energy. We use the shorthand 'warming' or 'cooling'. (Planets' global climates also depend on other things such as the size of the planet, the arrangement of liquid, solid and gas, the amount of free gas in the atmosphere and so on, but if our planet was changing size or shape, we would be unlikely to refer to that as a change in climate). Therefore when we see, for example increased storminess, a slowed jet stream, or increased flooding, these are not something other than global warming. They are part of global warming. They are part of the overall phenomenon. The global climate is changing, the change is in the direction of global warming, and this is the top-level article about that change, that warming. I don't know what nonsense American industrial advertisers have been putting onto US TV screens about this to lead to such confusion, or how American talk-show hosts and other media personalities have been trying to spin it, but here to me it still seems quite simple. And I don't think we have to alter our position away from describing and explaining the simple facts, per the scientific sources. --Nigelj (talk) 16:38, 26 June 2014 (UTC)
- Nigelj, do you agree with the hatnote's assertion that this article is about the current climate change, regardless of article title or verbiage in the first paragraph? If you say "no" then please identify a single aspect of the "current climate change" that does not belong in this article. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 17:10, 26 June 2014 (UTC)
- I do agree with the hatnote's assertion. --Nigelj (talk) 10:01, 27 June 2014 (UTC)
- Me too, thanks for the direct answer.
- You gave two reasons for opposing
- Reason A -
"(the phrase 'global warming', should not be the subject of the first sentence. The phrase is the topic of the hatnote, but that is what the hatnote is for. The article is about the warming of the globe, and should start on that topic straight way."
- ANSWER - If "subject" means like in grammar, we at least agree the topic is accurately stated by the hatnote (current climate change), which is named twice in the first sentence... first with "global warming" operating as the grammatical sentence subject, and secondly as "current climate change" operating as the grammatical subject of the subordinate clause. So both subjects (grammatical) appearing in the first sentence identify the topic. The rest of the paragraph expands on it. This proposed text was written in an attempt to introduce this subject to a non-specialist, most of whom have no clue about technical niceties and etymology of "global warming" vs "climate change". See Wikipedia:LEAD#Opening_paragraph.
- Reason B -
"...false dichotomy..."
- ANSWER - Moot, since you were replying to talk page commentary not the proposed article revision.
- Reason A -
- Any response?
- NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 12:55, 27 June 2014 (UTC)
- Well if I answered you again, I'd only be responding to further talk page commentary, so you would just say it is moot again. So I just say 'no' to your suggested text, and move on. --Nigelj (talk) 13:40, 27 June 2014 (UTC)
- Nigelj (talk · contribs)
- At first I did type a reply, which I redacted when I couldn't see how it related directly to the proposal. But since you apparently feel that it does directly relate, I will re-enter it.
- Reason B -
"there is a serious false dichotomy in the question, 'Is this about the current climate change, or just that part of the current climate change dealing with rising surf temps?'"
- ANSWER - This source defines "false dichotomy"
The fallacy of false dichotomy is committed when the arguer claims that his conclusion is one of only two options, when in fact there are other possibilities. The arguer then goes on to show that the 'only other option' is clearly outrageous, and so his preferred conclusion must be embraced.
- ANSWER - This source defines "false dichotomy"
- By that definition, there has to be a third unlisted possibility or else there is no false dichotomy. You did not identify a third possibility. Instead you appear to have embraced one of the two options in the question, as evidenced by (A) our agreement - setting aside the wording we use - that the hatnote "This article is about the current change in Earth's climate." is accurate, and (B) the rest of your post appears to lump into one pot both rising global surface temps and the myriad of interconnected responses permeating throughout the climate system. So what false dichotomy? We apparently agree - whatever words we use - that we're going to cover the whole shaking spider web of climate system stuff now underway. There is no third unlisted possibility making question a "false dichotomy". Is there?
- NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 15:15, 27 June 2014 (UTC)
- Well if I answered you again, I'd only be responding to further talk page commentary, so you would just say it is moot again. So I just say 'no' to your suggested text, and move on. --Nigelj (talk) 13:40, 27 June 2014 (UTC)
- I do agree with the hatnote's assertion. --Nigelj (talk) 10:01, 27 June 2014 (UTC)
- Nigelj, do you agree with the hatnote's assertion that this article is about the current climate change, regardless of article title or verbiage in the first paragraph? If you say "no" then please identify a single aspect of the "current climate change" that does not belong in this article. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 17:10, 26 June 2014 (UTC)
- I can't see how the proposed first sentence is an improvement, it appears to be much more confusing (with referring to RS's and uncommon wording). Also i do not agree with the approach of NAEG. We should focus on reducing the wall of text in the lead and not the context, or change definitions.The content is good as it is, just move some parts to improve readability. As i wrote above, the discussion about "Global Warming" belongs into the etymology section. prokaryotes (talk) 14:22, 27 June 2014 (UTC)
- We can't just shove EVERYTHING about "global warming" down into the body because that would not comply with Wikipedia:LEAD#Opening_paragraph, and whatever we do say in that paragraph about "global warming" needs an RS. Although I wrote the current first sentence I've changed my mind about it and think it is not supported by the RS I used. So something needs to change, it needs to be verified with RS, and it needs to introduce this article's topic (articulated in the hatnote "This article is about the current change in Earth's climate." ) to nonspecialists per Wikipedia:LEAD#Opening_paragraph. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 16:13, 27 June 2014 (UTC)
Changes to hat notes at GW and CC
- "This article is about the current change in Earth's climate." This sounds much better, see also my recent talk page reply to you. prokaryotes (talk) 16:41, 27 June 2014 (UTC)
- Sounds much better than what, and what should we do about it? As for your talk page, you just vaguely waved back to this thread. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 00:36, 28 June 2014 (UTC)
- "This article is about the current change in Earth's climate." This sounds much better, see also my recent talk page reply to you. prokaryotes (talk) 16:41, 27 June 2014 (UTC)
DHeyward (talk · contribs), thanks for this comment at a user talk page. In response, do you agree/disagree with the existing hatnote (in place since at least 2011) which reads "This article is about the current change in Earth's climate."? If you disagree, how would you change the hatnote? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 10:58, 29 June 2014 (UTC)
- I disagree with the hatnote. We have a Climate Change article. It has some strange contortions to make it different from Global Warming but the hatnote seems to imply we have two articles on the same topic. That should not be. Scientists have long established the difference in GMST (Global Warming) and Climate Change. It is fair to simply say in the lead that this article is about GMST and for the broader topic of Climate Change see Climate Change.
"Global warming refers to the rise in the observed land and sea surface temperatures. More than half of the observed warming is attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gases from such activities as fossil fuel consumption and cement production. Since <date> the mean global surface temperature has risen <X>. IPCC AR5 has adopted four Representative Concentration Pathways to estimate the effect of different greenhouse gas emission scenarios on future climate change including temperature. The estimated range of temperature increase for those scenarios in the year 2100 is <Y>. The term "global warming" is often used to describe the broad aspect of Climate change." For definition and why it's better to delineate the two terms, see NASA essay [1]. They seem to have grappled with the same issue and chose scientific meanings so that confusion is easily corrected and not cluttered. It makes dealing with topics like the so-called "pause" or "hiatus" so much easier because when someone says "Global Warming Pause" and they have lots of sources that have used the term, it's not contradictory to the article and it's never "Climate Change Pause". Scoping it narrowly and pointing out where "global warming" is not representative of "climate change" then becomes easier. --DHeyward (talk) 22:03, 29 June 2014 (UTC)
- To avoid confusion and with the recent reorganization, I want to be clear that my italicized quote is not a hat note. It is a proposal for the lead. There is plenty of factual surface temperature measurements (after all it is our longest recorded measurement). Proxies and reconstructions as well ice cores, glacial history of expansion and contraction, tree rings, urban heat island, ocean surface temperature record and alternate methods like the new arctic reconstruction (I forget the name but WMC subscribes to it and can name the authors). There's also GMST that's affected natural variability of ENSO, volcanic eruptions, aerosols. That's plenty of background for a single article on how all of those things affect our longest recorded measurement and most felt change in climate: the place where people live. Secondary effects of climate change like deep ocean heat content, sea level rise, isostatic adjustment, stratospheric changes, long-term land use change, changes in storms, drought, floods, etc, are where this article goes off into the weeds because those are not directly tied to GMST. By narrowly scoping the content to the scientific use, can direct the reader to specific articles that address their interest but not at the expense of conflicting information about what "Global Warming" is because the colloquial usage is too broad to not conflict with scientific usage. --DHeyward (talk) 03:26, 30 June 2014 (UTC)
"Global warming refers to the rise in the observed land and sea surface temperatures."
What RS do you propose citing for that definition? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 11:30, 30 June 2014 (UTC)- See OHC per ARGO, IPCC and or GISS? prokaryotes (talk) 16:47, 30 June 2014 (UTC)
- I provided it. http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/climate_by_any_other_name.html NASA. They provide the entire history of terminology including first usage, Hansen's usage, the scientific debate in the 1970's about whether there would be cooling or warming ("Inadvertant Climate Modification"). That article provides a side box, and even more references.
- 1 Wallace Broecker, "Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?" Science, vol. 189 (8 August 1975), 460-463.
- 2 For example, see: MIT, Inadvertent Climate Modification: Report of the Study of Man's Impact on Climate (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1971).
- 3National Academy of Science, Carbon Dioxide and Climate, Washington, D.C., 1979, p. vii.
- 4U.S. Senate, Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, "Greenhouse Effect and Global Climate Change, part 2" 100th Cong., 1st sess., 23 June 1988, p. 44.
- Side bar -
Definitions
Global warming: the increase in Earth’s average surface temperature due to rising levels of greenhouse gases.[2]
Climate change: a long-term change in the Earth’s climate, or of a region on Earth.[3]
- There's also the dictionary [4] --DHeyward (talk) 20:38, 30 June 2014 (UTC)
- And Encyclopedia Brittanica [5]. global warming, the phenomenon of increasing average air temperatures near the surface of Earth over the past one to two centuries. ... Global warming is related to the more general phenomenon of climate change, which refers to changes in the totality of attributes that define climate. In addition to changes in air temperature, climate change involves changes to precipitation patterns, winds, ocean currents, and other measures of Earth’s climate. --DHeyward (talk) 20:46, 30 June 2014 (UTC)
This message is a test
Revisit article title and Scope
hatted by OP, see instead proposal for tweaking lead para 1 in another thread |
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The following discussion has been closed. Please do not modify it. |
Proposal - move from Global warming to Global warming (current climate change) OP's Reasoning I like the article's current scope and am not suggesting we change the topic, only the name. Here's why Sometime before my arrival here in 2011 eds had agreed to treat Climate change as a generic topic unrelated to geological time period (and references to non-earth climate changes have come and gone in that article). Meanwhile, we reported on the current climate change here at Global warming. There are two problems with this set up. First, "global warming" has two meanings. The title doesn't really tell the reader which meaning will be emphasized by the text. The first is the original technical definition (just the increasing trend of global surface temps) now supported with an RS in the lead first paragraph. However, over time, "global warming" also became a WP:Neologism, serving as a synonym for current climate change. Before long so many RSs had embraced the neologistic meaning of the phrase "global warming" that it had became firmly established. So it has these two different meanings. Arguably, the text covers both meanings,,,, I did add some text to the lead's first paragraph awhile back to try to address this problem. However, complaints have still been raised about this article's scope - here is one notable recent thread where more than one ed spoke about revising the article's scope. IN SUM: "global warming" has two meanings, the original narrow one and also as a synonym for current climate change. You don't know which one is the emphasis from the current "global warming" article title, and we should recomit to covering the broad meaning here. The second problem with the article title "Global warming" is that it is susceptible to claims of POV (whether POV exists is besides the point). Since the scope of this article currently encompasses current climate change, several recent studies become relevant. These studies show that there is a difference of public perception whether one says "global warming" or "climate change". (Just one example) Since these terms have import for public perception, and since lots of RSs covering the broad topic use "global warming" and lots of others say "climate change", seems to me that the only way to avoid accusations of WP:POVNAMING is to move this article to Global warming (current climate change). Reworking the lead is overdue, but I think we should get a consensus on this title/scope issue first. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 15:01, 15 June 2014 (UTC)
New points, following some user-talk discussion. (1) The archives do not contain any discussion of the point I am raising, which is POV and confusion in the title, based on published research. I'll be organizing those sources and quotes sometime this week. (2) Among the archives' threads containing "commonname", and eliminating my own references to that guideline (unrelated to the current point), most threads were debating whether we could use "global warming" to specifcally refer to the current warming instead of limiting ourselves to the generic meaning first used in the sci lit. The consensus was "yes" and I think we should keep doing that. (3) The couple remaining archive threads compared "global warming" to "global warming in recent years" and "global climate change". To the extent reasons were given, the questionable google hit count method was used to show that at the time "global warming" wasthe hands down google-hit winner.... but those threads were old. (4) Updating the admittedly dubious GoogleScholar hit-test... lets start the tally in 2008 since AR4 was released the year before. Google Scholar - uncheck patents & citations - years 2008 to 2014.... the results are (5) So not only are there multiple published research reports discussing import of saying "global warming" versus "climate change", but since AR4 the professional literature appears to be embracing "climate change" over "global warming". Of course, without reading all the sources one can't know the context, so it's a shaky test. Just seemed like we were relying on that test to get where we are, so if we're going to ignore the essentially same test's different results today we should have a reason based in logic.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 01:39, 16 June 2014 (UTC)
On the opposite side of the ledger, this article is about global warming and not about climate change. Which, as an important aside, highlights an issue with this article.
For example, the term climate change includes issues such as:
Curiously, the term "rainfall" occurs in the lead, but not in the body of the article.
Similarly, "drought" occurs in the lead, but not in the body. Given that the lead it supposed to be a summary of material in the body, it appears that the article has been primarily about global warming, but someone decided to add some aspects of climate change to the lead, without adding them to the body. In addition, the article barely mentions issues such as tornado frequency and intensity or hurricane frequency and intensity, both of which are prominent aspect of climate change but understandably not emphasized in an article referring to overall warming. In other words, if the consensus were to change the title, it would require a substantial rewrite, as this article is primarily about global warming, and doesn't have adequate coverage of climate change issues. Addendum: It didn't sink in until after I posted that my point is largely an expansion of the point made by User:Prokaryotes--S Philbrick(Talk) 13:35, 16 June 2014 (UTC)
Is there any dispute here besides what NAEG is generating? Was there any dispute more than ten minutes before he tagged the article? ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 20:59, 17 June 2014 (UTC)
For the record, my comment was that this article was so screwed up, it became "Climate Change" while the "Climate Change" article became global warming. That hasn't changed. This article should be about the increase in global mean surface temperature. That's the definition of global warming. Climate change is broader than surface temperature. As long as the OWNERS of the article insist on ignoring the scientific litereature (i.e. Hansen's very distinct use of the terms), this is just more deck chair shuffling. I in no way support an article title change and infact, would prefer that the article on Global Warming be written to reflect Global Warming and the article on Climate Change focus on Climate Change. --DHeyward (talk) 05:20, 18 June 2014 (UTC)
Naming of global warmingWhile climate change has long covered variation over many centuries, Spencer R. Weart's The Discovery of Global Warming consistently uses this term to refer to the current changes: he specifically notes that Wallace Broecker wrote in 1975 Climatic change; are we on the brink of a pronounced global warming?", taking the lead in warning in an influential Science magazine article that the world might be poised on the brink of a serious rise of temperature. "Complacency may not be warranted," he said. "We may be in for a climatic surprise."[7] So, a clear distinction. What's the problem? . . dave souza, talk 22:16, 17 June 2014 (UTC)
|
Revision of section on social impacts
As discussed on previous threads [10], I've written a draft revision of the section of the article that deals with the social effects of climate change]:
- "The effects of climate change on human systems have been detected on agriculture and indigenous peoples in the Arctic (Cramer et al: Executive summary, pp3-4). The future social impacts of climate change will be uneven (Volume-wide FAQs: FAQ 7 and 8, pp2-3). Many risks are expected to increase with higher magnitudes of global warming (Oppenheimer et al: pp39-46). All regions are at risk of experiencing negative impacts (Field et al: pp27-30). Low-latitude, less developed areas face the greatest risk (Oppenheimer et al: pp42-43). Examples of impacts include:
- - Food: Crop production will probably be negatively affected in low latitude countries, while effects at northern latitudes may be positive or negative (Porter et al: p3). Global warming of around 4.6 °C relative to pre-industrial levels (see note) could pose a significant risk to global and regional food security (Summary for Policymakers: p18).
- - Health: Generally impacts will be more negative than positive (Smith et al: p37: FAQ 11.2). Impacts include: the effects of extreme weather, leading to injury and loss of life (Smith et al: pp10-13); and indirect effects, such as undernutrition brought on by crop failures (Smith et al: pp22-24)."
Note: I've converted the reference temperature period in the source from the late-20th century to pre-industrial times (see: SPM: p14: Assessment Box SPM-1).
References: All taken from the IPCC 5th Assessment Working Group II report: Cramer et al (Chapter 18); Field et al (Technical Summary); Oppenheimer et al (Ch 19); Porter et al (Ch 7); Smith et al (Ch 11); Summary for Policymakers; Volume-wide FAQs.
Enescot (talk) 08:35, 25 June 2014 (UTC)
- I'm not sure if you want to include the notes about the authors and page numbers directly into the article, but these should be in the references - nobody wants to read that (other than nerds, but that is to technical). Crucial findings should be backed up by more than one study. Though maybe mention the IPCC directly, especially refer to the impact study report, maybe even include the website to it https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/. Related video link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMIFBJYpSgM prokaryotes (talk) 14:38, 27 June 2014 (UTC)
- ^ "Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth's surface than any preceding decade since 1850." p.3, IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis - Summary for Policymakers, Observed Changes in the Climate System, p. 3, in IPCC AR5 WG1 2013 .
- ^ "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal" p.2, IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis - Summary for Policymakers, Observed Changes in the Climate System, p. 2, in IPCC AR5 WG1 2013 .
- ^ "Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010." p.6,IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis - Summary for Policymakers, Observed Changes in the Climate System, p. 6, in IPCC AR5 WG1 2013 .
- ^
America's Climate Choices. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. 2011. p. 15. ISBN 978-0-309-14585-5.
The average temperature of the Earth's surface increased by about 1.4 °F (0.8 °C) over the past 100 years, with about 1.0 °F (0.6 °C) of this warming occurring over just the past three decades.
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