Talk:Climate change
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Frequently asked questions To view an answer, click the [show] link to the right of the question. To view references used by an answer, you must also click the [show] for references at the bottom of the FAQ. Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on climate change?
A1: Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. This scientific consensus is supported by over 99% of publishing climate scientists.[1]
Q2: How can we say climate change is real when it's been so cold in such-and-such a place?
A2: This is why it is termed "global warming", not "(such-and-such a place) warming". Even then, what rises is the average temperature over time – that is, the temperature will fluctuate up and down within the overall rising trend. To give an idea of the relevant time scales, the standard averaging period specified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 30 years. Accordingly, the WMO defines climate change as "a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)."[2] Q3: Can't the increase of CO2 be from natural sources, like volcanoes or the oceans?
A3: While these claims are popular among global warming skeptics,[3][4] including academically trained ones,[5][6] they are incorrect. This is known from any of several perspectives:
Q4: I think the article is missing some things, or has some things wrong. Can I change it?
A4: Yes. Keep in mind that your points need to be based on documented evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, or other information that meets standards of verifiability, reliability, and no original research. If you do not have such evidence, more experienced editors may be able to help you find it (or confirm that such evidence does not exist). You are welcome to make such queries on the article's talk page but please keep in mind that the talk page is for discussing improvements to the article, not discussing the topic. There are many forums that welcome general discussions of global warming, but the article talk page is not such a forum. Q5: Why haven't the graphs been updated?
A5: Two reasons:
Q6: Isn't climate change "just a theory"?
A6: People who say this are abusing the word "theory" by conflating its common meaning with its scientific meaning.
In common usage, "theory" can mean a hunch or guess, but a scientific theory, roughly speaking, means a coherent set of explanations that is compatible with observations and that allows predictions to be made. That the temperature is rising is an observation. An explanation for this (also known as a hypothesis) is that the warming is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (such as CO2 and methane) released into the atmosphere by human activity. Scientific models have been built that predict the rise in temperature and these predictions have matched observations. When scientists gain confidence in a hypothesis because it matches observation and has survived intense scrutiny, the hypothesis may be called a "theory". Strictly speaking, scientific theories are never proven, but the degree of confidence in a theory can be discussed. The scientific models now suggest that it is "extremely likely" (>95%) to "virtually certain" (>99%) that the increases in temperature have been caused by human activity as discussed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Global warming via greenhouse gases by human activity is a theory (in the scientific sense), but it is most definitely not just a hunch or guess. Q7: Does methane cause more warming than CO2?
A7: It's true that methane is more potent molecule for molecule. But there's far less of it in the atmosphere, so the total effect is smaller. The atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO2 (hundreds to thousands of years), so when methane emissions are reduced the concentration in the atmosphere soon falls, whereas CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere over long periods. For details see the greenhouse gas and global warming potential articles.
Q8: How can you say there's a consensus when lists of "skeptical scientists" have been compiled?
A8: Consensus is not the same as unanimity, the latter of which is impractical for large groups. Over 99% of publishing climate scientists agree on anthropogenic climate change.[1] This is an extremely high percentage well past any reasonable threshold for consensus. Any list of "skeptical scientists" would be dwarfed by a comparably compiled list of scientists accepting anthropogenic climate change. Q9: Did climate change end in 1998?
A9: One of the strongest El Niño events in the instrumental record occurred during late 1997 through 1998, causing a spike in global temperature for 1998. Through the mid-late 2000s this abnormally warm year could be chosen as the starting point for comparisons with later years in order to produce a cooling trend; choosing any other year in the 20th century produced a warming trend. This no longer holds since the mean global temperatures in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998.[12]
More importantly, scientists do not define a "trend" by looking at the difference between two given years. Instead they use methods such as linear regression that take into account all the values in a series of data. The World Meteorological Organisation specifies 30 years as the standard averaging period for climate statistics so that year-to-year fluctuations are averaged out;[2] thus, 10 years isn't long enough to detect a climate trend. Q10: Wasn't Greenland much warmer during the period of Norse settlement?
A10: Some people assume this because of the island's name. In fact the Saga of Erik the Red tells us Erik named the new colony Greenland because "men will desire much the more to go there if the land has a good name."[13] Advertising hype was alive and well in 985 AD.
While much of Greenland was and remains under a large ice sheet, the areas of Greenland that were settled by the Norse were coastal areas with fjords that, to this day, remain quite green. You can see the following images for reference:
Q11: Are the IPCC reports prepared by biased UN scientists?
A11: The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and it has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by various organizations including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties. Q12: Hasn't global sea ice increased over the last 30 years?
A12: Measurements show that it has not.[14] Claims that global sea ice amounts have stayed the same or increased are a result of cherry picking two data points to compare, while ignoring the real (strongly statistically significant) downward trend in measurements of global sea ice amounts.
Arctic sea ice cover is declining strongly; Antarctic sea ice cover has had some much smaller increases, though it may or may not be thinning, and the Southern Ocean is warming. The net global ice-cover trend is clearly downwards. Q13: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that the Earth was cooling instead of warming?
A13: They weren't – see the article on global cooling. An article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has reviewed the scientific literature at that time and found that even during the 1970s the prevailing scientific concern was over warming.[15] The common misperception that cooling was the main concern during the 1970s arose from a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, such as a short nine-paragraph article that appeared in Newsweek in 1975.[16] (Newsweek eventually apologized for having misrepresented the state of the science in the 1970s.)[17] The author of that article has repudiated the idea that it should be used to deny global warming.[18] Q14: Doesn't water vapour cause 98% of the greenhouse effect?
A14: Water vapour is indeed a major greenhouse gas, contributing about 36% to 70% (not 98%) of the total greenhouse effect. But water vapour has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days), compared with decades to centuries for greenhouse gases like CO2 or nitrous oxide. As a result it is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, which globally maintains a nearly constant relative humidity. In simpler terms, any excess water vapour is removed by rainfall, and any deficit of water vapour is replenished by evaporation from the Earth's surface, which literally has oceans of water. Thus water vapour cannot act as a driver of climate change.
Rising temperatures caused by the long-lived greenhouse gases will however allow the atmosphere to hold more vapour. This will lead to an increase in the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Since water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, this is an example of a positive feedback. Thus, whereas water vapour is not a driver of climate change, it amplifies existing trends. Q15: Is the fact that other solar system bodies are warming evidence for a common cause (i.e. the sun)?
A15: While some solar system bodies show evidence of local or global climate change, there is no evidence for a common cause of warming.
Q16: Do scientists support climate change just to get more money?
A16: No,
Q17: Doesn't the climate vary even without human activity?
A17: It does, but the fact that natural variation occurs does not mean that human-induced change cannot also occur. Climate scientists have extensively studied natural causes of climate change (such as orbital changes, volcanism, and solar variation) and have ruled them out as an explanation for the current temperature increase. Human activity is the cause at the 95 to 99 percent confidence level (see the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for details). The high level of certainty in this is important to keep in mind to spot mention of natural variation functioning as a distraction. Q18: Should we include the view that climate change will lead to planetary doom or catastrophe?
A18: This page is about the science of climate change. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe. For a technical explanation, see catastrophic climate change, and for paleoclimatic examples see PETM and great dying. Q19: Is an increase in global temperature of, say, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) important?
A19: Though it may not sound like much, a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is huge in climate terms. For example, the sea level rise it would produce would flood coastal cities around the world, which include most large cities.
Q20: Why are certain proposals to change the article discarded, deleted, or ignored? Who is/was Scibaby?
A20: Scibaby is/was a long term abusive sock-master (or coordinated group of sock masters) who has created 1,027 confirmed sock puppets, another 167 suspected socks, and probably many untagged or unrecognized ones. This page lists some recent creations. His modus operandi has changed over time, but includes proposing reasonably worded additions on the talk page that only on close examination turn out to be irrelevant, misinterpreted, or give undue weight to certain aspects. Scibaby is banned, and Scibaby socks are blocked as soon as they are identified. Some editors silently revert his additions, per WP:DENY, while others still assume good faith even for likely socks and engage them. Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer-reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...?
A21: There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published every month in respected scientific journals such as Geophysical Research Letters, the Journal of Climate, and others. We can't include all of them, but the article does include references to individual papers where there is consensus that they best represent the state of the relevant science. This is in accordance with the "due weight" principle (WP:WEIGHT) of the Neutral point of view policy and the "Wikipedia is not an indiscriminate collection of information" principle (WP:IINFO) of the What Wikipedia is not policy. Q22: Why does the article define "climate change" as a recent phenomenon? Hasn't the planet warmed and cooled before?
A22: Yes, the planet has warmed and cooled before. However, the term "climate change" without further qualification is widely understood to refer to the recent episode and often explicitly connected with the greenhouse effect. Per WP:COMMONNAME, we use the term in this most common meaning. The article Climate variability and change deals with the more general concept. Q23: Did the CERN CLOUD experiment prove that climate change is caused not by human activity but by cosmic rays?
A23: No. For cosmic rays to be causing global warming, all of the following would have to be true, whereas only the italicized one was tested in the 2011 experiment:[28]
Q24: I read that something can't fix climate change. Is this true?
A24: Yes, this is true for all plausible single things including: "electric cars", "planting trees", "low-carbon technology", "renewable energy", "Australia", "capitalism", "the doom & gloom approach", "a Ph.D. in thermodynamics". Note that it is problematic to use the word "fix" regarding climate change, as returning the climate to its pre-industrial state currently appears to be feasible only over a timeframe of thousands of years. Current efforts are instead aimed at mitigating (meaning limiting) climate change. Mitigation is strived for through the combination of many different things. See Climate change mitigation for details. References
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Mitigation section
I think that Global warming#Mitigation should be revised. In my opinion, the mitigation section is fairly good at present, but I think that there is some unnecessary overlap with Global warming#Political discussion. The mitigation section discusses low GHG stabilization targets, while the politics section discusses limiting global warming to 2 degrees C. I think that these two topics are similar and should be collated in one section. Enescot (talk) 08:29, 30 November 2014 (UTC)
- I've had another idea about revising information on the 2 °C target:
- 1. In this article, information on progress towards 2 °C is collated and briefly summarized in global warming#Mitigation. Readers can be referred to climate change mitigation#Temperature targets for more information.
- 2. My draft summary on 1.5 / 2 °C for this article is below:
- Near- and long-term trends in the global energy system are inconsistent with limiting global warming at below 1.5 or 2 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels (link to climate change mitigation#Temperature targets) (IPCC AR5 WG3: Chapter 6 p418; Technical summary, Table TS.1, p54). Pledges made as part of the Cancún agreements are broadly consistent with having a likely chance (66 to 100% probability) of limiting global warming (in the 21st century) at below 3 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels (IPCC AR5 WG3 Summary for Policymakers p12).
- References: IPCC AR5 WG3 Fifth Assessment Report - Mitigation of Climate Change
- Enescot (talk) 09:37, 11 January 2015 (UTC)
- I've added a few extra lines on the emissions reductions necessary to meet 2 degrees C (see global warming#Mitigation). I've also made some other changes to the mitigation section as well. Enescot (talk) 07:49, 21 January 2015 (UTC)
Scientific Journal or Encyclopedic entry?
On a related matter, I am not sure editors here realize references are not needed to this extent in a properly written lead WP:LEADCITE, because the lead is supposed to be a mirror of the article which contains the necessary references. When you have 3 and 4 references in a bulky verbose lead it does not help people read it. So just like someone said they cannot read bold text, very few can read the lead and get a summary of the issues, it reads like a scientific convention paper, not an encyclopedic entry.--Inayity (talk) 07:55, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- The paragraph you cited, WP:LEADCITE, says in part
"The necessity for citations in a lead should be determined on a case-by-case basis by editorial consensus. Complex, current, or controversial subjects may require many citations; others, few or none."
You're new here, right? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 08:54, 9 December 2014 (UTC)- If you want to use Newness as some kind of defense for this nonsense let me give you a headsup, do not bother with it. I did not reply to your other comment b.c i found them of no use to this discussion. So, NO I am not new HERE, where Here is Wikipedia. And WP:LEAD is something I know a Great deal about! Case by case, where is the editorial consensus for the excessive laborious references? Why not at 10 more just to make the point? ref are more needed around CONTROVERSIAL disputable material. Can you review the LEAD by reading it and tell me is all of that information controversial? --Inayity (talk) 09:00, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- So I guess this is either complex, or controversial, is that why it needs 4 ref? Parties to the UNFCCC have adopted a range of policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions[19][20][21][22] --Inayity (talk) 09:07, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- If you want to use Newness as some kind of defense for this nonsense let me give you a headsup, do not bother with it. I did not reply to your other comment b.c i found them of no use to this discussion. So, NO I am not new HERE, where Here is Wikipedia. And WP:LEAD is something I know a Great deal about! Case by case, where is the editorial consensus for the excessive laborious references? Why not at 10 more just to make the point? ref are more needed around CONTROVERSIAL disputable material. Can you review the LEAD by reading it and tell me is all of that information controversial? --Inayity (talk) 09:00, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- Option A - Thump and holler
- Option B - Work to restart the process
- Which will more effectively yield results while complying with WP:ARBCC#Principles?
- There are several ideas in those threads with more substance than generalized indictment.
- One thing you will find in those threads is a broad agreement that the lead has accumulated a lot of stuff since FA status was granted, and everyone who spoke agreed it needs work. And we did a ton of work and got thru paragraph 1. How about drafting a proposed second paragraph and posting it here? Or you can insult this bit of the remaining accumulation and that bit of the remaining accumulation, but that doesn't seem very effective to me. Your mileage may vary. As for your specific example of accumulated stuff, no I don't suppose that needs 4 refs.
- NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 09:16, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
I haven't checked the details (sorry) but I agree that part / most of the reason for the ridiculous numbers of citations in the lede was to beat back the bozos. If the bozos are gone, then the cites can and should be pruned William M. Connolley (talk) 12:11, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- On an even more contentious topic we ended up with grouping cites together to avoid the [3][4][5][6][7] effect, best to prune cites to a couple while making sure that useful cites are used somewhere in the body text rather than cluttering up the lead. . dave souza, talk 12:53, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- I agree with both of you, but go further to agree with Inayity - before worrying about lead cites maybe we should work more on the lead text? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 13:20, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- And, assuming that "bozos" don't read much, a somewhat shorter lead might be more effective. Just saying, Grandma (talk) 14:12, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
Commonspeech and terms Global warming and Climate change in first sentence
- Agree with both, we could try working without cites or perhaps best put drafts in a talk page section. For starters, why "Global warming and climate change are both used to refer the..."? Suggest "Global warming is the observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system, the current climate change with its related effects." . . . dave souza, talk 14:23, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- Dave, I agree. In my recent change of this sentence I was just trying to accommodate a seeming wish to have climate change in there. If it was taken out, and yet somehow linked via a footnote or something, then that would, in my opinion, be even better. Grandma (talk) 14:34, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- Oh, I see that the use of the term climate change already appears in the italic preamble. Noting that, can we just take it out of the first sentence proper? Grandma (talk) 14:45, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- @Dave, oppposed to dropping the COMMONSPEECH use of "climate change" in sentence 1 for reasons stated in the three archived threads and abundant additional archived debate elsewhere over the scope of this article viz-a-viz should we gut this article to focus in laser beam fashion on the narrow TECHSPEAK meaning of the term (rising global surface temps), and purge all discussion of greenhouse gas, policy, feedbacks, social impacts.... The consensus, of which I thought you were a supporting part, was to keep the article scope as it has always been and to add the COMMONSPEECH equivalent terms in the opening sentence. Did I not understand your prior views, Dave? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 14:52, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- Okay, understood, we should live with it (given everything else). Grandma (talk) 14:56, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- Hope lives! Thanks, I look forward to cleaning up the rest of the lead together. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 14:58, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- Okay, understood, we should live with it (given everything else). Grandma (talk) 14:56, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
My aim was to cover that at the end of the sentence, see below for a possible way of bringing it forward without getting into "also known as" stuff. . dave souza, talk 16:39, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- Better check and make sure what the motivations are behind this sudden effort to wish to alter the lede.--MONGO 15:02, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- Mongo, we are here discussing content, not motivation. Thank you, Grandma (talk) 15:05, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- Also, Mongo, if you are unhappy with something specific, or if you can suggest a specific improvement, then please say it. Again, thank you, Grandma (talk) 15:14, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- Yes...I disagree with all your edits so far...that's specific. While the lede is longish and has changed a fair bit since this article achieved FA, the subject matter does deserve expansion and in this case cites in the lede due to the subject matter.--MONGO 16:18, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- To be helpful, please say why you disagree. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 16:30, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- Yes...I disagree with all your edits so far...that's specific. While the lede is longish and has changed a fair bit since this article achieved FA, the subject matter does deserve expansion and in this case cites in the lede due to the subject matter.--MONGO 16:18, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- Also, Mongo, if you are unhappy with something specific, or if you can suggest a specific improvement, then please say it. Again, thank you, Grandma (talk) 15:14, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
"observed century scale" vs "current long term"
Here's a small difference of opinion; I'm your Grandma wants to say that GW refers
- to the observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system and its related effects.
And I want to say it refers
- to the current long-term rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system and its related effects
The reasons I'm your Grandma prefers her version are perfectly valid. Her edit summary says "observed" because global warming is not just an inference, "century-scale" as opposed to paleo changes. Although both are true, in my view attempting to convey that level of technical nuance in the opening sentence (A) expects too much and (B) puts 10th graders on the defensive with technical speak right off the bat. So I prefer "current long term" because its is simpler language for the lead.
What do others think? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 15:53, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
I'd like to say
- Century scale is incoherent gibberish....your option is the better of two bad ones.--MONGO 16:21, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- Lotsa my writing can be described like that (hopefully more like the latter than the former!) NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 16:31, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- Taking this and the above point together, how about "Global warming is the climate change observed over a century of continuing rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system, and its related effects." This highlights climate change as being the same thing over the current 1,000 year period. . . dave souza, talk 16:39, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- I like it! Grandma (talk) 16:43, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- "Global warming is the climate change currently underway as a result of Earth's positive radiation balance. It began over a century ago and is documented by multiple lines of scientific evidence
show that the climate system is warming.[2][3]"
- Now, NewsGuy, don't take it personally, but I prefer Dave's proposed sentence. Still, the positive radiation page should of be linked somehow, if not already done. Things are progressing! Grandma (talk) 16:58, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
Dave and others...
- Reasoning; Here's why I think some tweaks to Dave's suggestion would improve it
- we can drop "and its related effects" because that is redundant with "climate change" in this phrasing.
- plus Dave's text is susceptible to the mis-reading that we were definitely observing the rise in 1920s, 1930s, 1940s.... whereas there was some uncertainty whether it was headed up or down back then. Today we have lots of proxie records to back up the instrumental record, but most of them weren't being "observed" for over a century.
- NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 17:07, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- NewsGuy, my apologies, I was just out for a walk, thinking, and realizing that I didn't explain myself. We all tend to focus on slightly different issues, don't we?
- (1) One thing I'm reacting to is the use of the expression "currently underway". I would have similar concerns about the word "presently". Why? Well, because we have climate-change deniers that confuse a trend occurring over many decades or a century (or more) with more rapid fluctuations. Indeed, some deniers claim that the recent seeming "pause" means we aren't having any more global warming. Some people even seem to think that a low temperature in some part of the world means we aren't having any more global warming. We need to avoid such confusion in the lead, so that is why I'm not in favor of "currently" or "presently" or similar. So that is one point.
- (2) Also, I think the mention of "related effects" needs to be in this thesis sentence because this page (and even the last couple paragraphs in the lead) discuss related effects. Whether or not all those "related" issues should be there is another subject, but as long as they are, then I guess I favor some foreshadowing in the thesis sentence.
- (3) I still like the word "observed" because it summarizes the factual nature of global warming. It is observed, not inferred, and while its cause is something that might be discussed (multiple causes, but mankind is THE major player), the fact remains, we have had real global warming.
- (4) I think that some mention of "century" or similar needs to be in the thesis sentence because "global warming", in the sense of this particular article, is not about longer term paleoclimate change that has natural cause outside of mankind's own influence. Again, confusing paleoclimate with the recent historical (century-scale or whatever) global warming is often the subject of confusion among the public.
- (5) I find the page Earth's positive radiation balance interesting, but I think the title sounds very technical, so much so, it might dissuade many readers from, well, continuing to read. Like I say, this page needs to be linked, even somewhere in the lead.
- Anyway, those are my thoughts. Now I have to go eat some oatmeal, Grandma (talk) 17:22, 9 December 2014 (UTC)
- Reasoning; Here's why I think some tweaks to Dave's suggestion would improve it
Should we go with Dave's suggestion? LadyLeodia (talk) 01:29, 19 December 2014 (UTC)
- shall we at least acknowledge subsequent critique? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 01:46, 19 December 2014 (UTC)
- Yes, of course. You might respond to Grandma's points? Or find compromise. All of this seems very civilized. LadyLeodia (talk) 01:54, 19 December 2014 (UTC)
FYI AE complaint
FYI, editors here may be interested (or not) in these other threads
- Wikipedia:Arbitration/Requests/Enforcement#William_M._Connolley_on_IPCC_consensusAE complaint against WMC filed by Serten II (talk · contribs)
- The backstory has to do with Serten's going live with a draft of IPCC consensus
NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 05:31, 17 December 2014 (UTC)
- Okay, wow, that whole page IPCC consensus is, well, something else. Start with the first sentence in the "lede". No. Not good. LadyLeodia (talk) 02:20, 19 December 2014 (UTC)
- The entire thing is drivel. This is the best version William M. Connolley (talk) 10:17, 19 December 2014 (UTC)
- Okay, wow, that whole page IPCC consensus is, well, something else. Start with the first sentence in the "lede". No. Not good. LadyLeodia (talk) 02:20, 19 December 2014 (UTC)
- The young lady looks for honeypots and found a ungentleman to lead her around? Nice pairing. Serten II (talk) 11:50, 19 December 2014 (UTC)
- As usual, I was right. It was drivel, and has been deleted William M. Connolley (talk) 16:56, 19 December 2014 (UTC)
- If anyone wants to help with it, User:Serten II/IPCC consensus is a userspace draft. . . dave souza, talk 17:13, 19 December 2014 (UTC)
- As usual, the lady disappeared. Serten II (talk) 09:40, 2 January 2015 (UTC)
Semi-protected edit request on 2 January 2015
|answered=no
This edit request to Global warming has been answered. Set the |answered= or |ans= parameter to no to reactivate your request. |
I request that the following information, easily verifiable with Wikipedia sources, be included in this article in order to provide an historical background to the heavily opinion-driven and prediction-weighted text.
The current global average temperature is about 15°C and for the last 500 million years, the earth has ranged between 12°C and 22°C, and for two-thirds of that time it has been within a degree or so of 22°C. Since the Holocene Optimum [[1]] (apposite term chosen), the world has cooled slightly, with a recent uptick (see: Hockey Stick [[2]]) in the last 150 years. If it does not persist, we may descend into another glaciation like the one we emerged from 20,000 years ago, when London was buried under a mile of ice.
The Ice Age we are in began 2.5 million years ago, when the Arctic ice cap became perennial (see: Ice Age [[3]], definition). In the last million years we have had 8 interglacials like the one we're in now, surrounded by glacials like the one we emerged from 14,000 years ago, when the sea level rose 22 meters in a few hundred years. After that, it continued to rise another 80 meters until it stabilized at a few mm a decade a few thousand years ago. 120,000 years ago, sea level was six meters higher than now, and atmospheric CO2 was about 280 ppmv.[4] Oiler99 (talk) 04:46, 2 January 2015 (UTC)
- You have the wrong article. This article (Global warming) is about the recent warming, while the article Climate change is about climate change in general, and that article already contains the information that you present here. See the header on top of this article, where this is clearly delineated :) --Kim D. Petersen 07:13, 2 January 2015 (UTC)
- Not done - as answer above. - Arjayay (talk) 11:41, 2 January 2015 (UTC)
|answered=no
- The current warming began about 18,000 years ago, and the last 150 years of the anthropocene is a minor blip in the general cooling since the Holocene Optimum. This needs to be considered in any article pretending to be devoted to the science rather than to the psychology. Choosing your starting point on a chart is classical statistical cherry-picking, and illegitimate. It shows bad faith. --Oiler99 (talk) 06:38, 9 January 2015 (UTC)
- Oh really? Take that up with Marcott, S. A.; Shakun, J. D.; Clark, P. U.; Mix, A. C. (8 March 2013), "A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years", Science, 339 (6124): 1198–1201, Bibcode:2013Sci...339.1198M, doi:10.1126/science.1228026, PMID 23471405 for example. . . dave souza, talk 08:30, 9 January 2015 (UTC)
- The current warming began about 18,000 years ago, and the last 150 years of the anthropocene is a minor blip in the general cooling since the Holocene Optimum. This needs to be considered in any article pretending to be devoted to the science rather than to the psychology. Choosing your starting point on a chart is classical statistical cherry-picking, and illegitimate. It shows bad faith. --Oiler99 (talk) 06:38, 9 January 2015 (UTC)
US senate vote: global warming not caused by humans
Well, who cares about scientists or wikipedia, right? In the end the US senate runs the world and they decide what is the truth.
- global warming exists (98 votes to 1)
- it is not (significantly) caused by humans (50 out of 60 required votes)
Random reference. Either this page needs a major rewrite for rebalancing... Or perhaps the US senate should spend more time on wikipedia and listening to scientists. PizzaMan (♨♨) 13:57, 22 January 2015 (UTC)
- In breaking news, Senate to redefine π as 3 in accordance with Scripture. A triumph for Senator Jim Inhofe#Environmental issues, who's been saying since 28 July 2003 variously that "catastrophic global warming is a hoax", "manmade global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people" and at times "global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people". As he's now again [[Chair of the United States Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, which includes the Environment Agency, the future looks interesting. . . dave souza, talk 18:11, 22 January 2015 (UTC)
- dave souza, please remind me: I'm pretty sure some US state actually did pass a law that π henceforth be defined as 3 in their state. The law was widely reported internationally and, the way I remember it, was repealed later, perhaps the following year. I don't recollect any reference to Scripture, though. Anybody remember which state it was and when? Or have I been taken in by a canard? Bishonen | talk 19:13, 22 January 2015 (UTC).
- See Indiana Pi Bill. This was back in 1897. Another blatant example of pointy-heads obstructing the will of the majority!!!! ~ J. Johnson (JJ) (talk) 00:34, 23 January 2015 (UTC)
- Aye, ye should ken the Guid Book better, and beware of canards, they're a randy lot. Appropriately enough, DuckDuckGo is your friend..[5]. . . dave souza, talk 20:04, 22 January 2015 (UTC)
- dave souza, please remind me: I'm pretty sure some US state actually did pass a law that π henceforth be defined as 3 in their state. The law was widely reported internationally and, the way I remember it, was repealed later, perhaps the following year. I don't recollect any reference to Scripture, though. Anybody remember which state it was and when? Or have I been taken in by a canard? Bishonen | talk 19:13, 22 January 2015 (UTC).
- Lol. Either way the reason i posted this is to discuss if (and how) it should be added to the article. The reference i gave is notable enough and it's all over the news. But i don't think the environment much cares for a us senate vote. Nor do the scientists who know what they're talking about. On the other hand, imagine how silly this will look a hundred years from now if and when it is indisputed that global warming is (significantly) caused by humans. That makes it an interesting trivia. PizzaMan (♨♨) 21:22, 22 January 2015 (UTC)
- Actually, the #Political discussion section of this article badly needs an update, with mention both of the hints of accord with China international developments, and the move of the U.S. Senate to a majority position of political denial of the science. . . dave souza, talk 21:44, 22 January 2015 (UTC)
Solar variation
Whoever wrote the sun activity section of this article should read the Wikipedia article on solar variation. At least make them agree with each other. Solar energy either caused previous hot/cold periods or it didn't. I'm surprised how little data is used for a theory, particularly a theory that stretches over geologic time. 24.128.186.53 (talk) 23:16, 26 January 2015 (UTC)
- This article is about global warming over the last century or so, for earlier periods see climate change. See Global warming#Solar activity for evidence that current warming cannot be attributed to solar variation. If you think something specific should be added, please propose wording and sources. . . . dave souza, talk 01:11, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
The same ,predictable , solar variations seem to explain geologic global warming ( and cooling) fairly well. Known cooling and warming spells are graphed out in Solar Variations quite well. Current ( 1860s to present) are inconclusive - remember, just a few years ago the data pointed to global cooling - which as I recall was the consensus of experts who by the way were cashing in - somethings never change.
24.128.186.53 (talk) 03:00, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
- There was never an expert consensus on global cooling, and experts never cashed in on it. --OuroborosCobra (talk) 04:41, 27 January 2015 (UTC)
Images in the lead
I would like to replace two of the images in the lead section. The first is a world map of temperature changes. An update is available here. I think that the 1950-2014 trend map is the most appropriate since internal variability is less evident.
The second is the graph of recent CO2 changes and IPCC projections. The SRES scenarios are rather old. In my view, it would be better to use these scenarios instead (data available here).
Enescot (talk) 09:12, 30 January 2015 (UTC)
- Makes sense to me; Re the second one you mentioned, the authors (under CC 3.0) are SkepticalScience. Since I lack graphics wizardry, I contacted them to see about getting an update. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 12:12, 30 January 2015 (UTC)
- What is your view on the time period shown in the new emissions graph? In my opinion, it would be best to show current emissions and projected emissions out until 2100. Enescot (talk) 13:11, 8 February 2015 (UTC)
Title/Alternate title conflict
On Dec 9, NewsAndEventsGuy made a change to the definition in the lead section. This change introduced climate change in boldface, presumably as a alternate title. The current definition is:
- Global warming and climate change both refer to the observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system and its related effects.
However, since Climate change is the title of it's own article and theoretically should not be used for an alternate (eg, you can't redirect it), I'd like to make a slight change:
- Global warming and climate change can both refer to the observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system and its related effects, although climate change can also refer to climatic trends at any point in earth's history.
The hatnote and the inline comment (beginning with !-- DO NOT WIKILINK) can remain. Because my change is to the first sentence of the article, I present it here rather than being bold. What say you? --RoyGoldsmith (talk) 22:27, 3 February 2015 (UTC)
- OK by me, and thanks for caring. FYI, although I posted the change, it was the result of a prolonged discussion broken across three archived threads. The final thread in that series was Talk:Global_warming/Archive_70#Proposed_new_paragraph (NAEG Ver 6) NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 00:09, 4 February 2015 (UTC)
- Done (with changes). I did notice the long discussions (mostly on Dec 9) but it was too complicated to gather all the names. BTW, I always sign my inline comments. --RoyGoldsmith (talk) 02:05, 4 February 2015 (UTC)
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