2023 Manitoba general election: Difference between revisions

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Revision as of 01:21, 24 June 2023

2023 Manitoba general election
← 2019 On or before October 3, 2023
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Wab Kinew (cropped).jpg
Leader Heather Stefanson Wab Kinew
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since October 30, 2021 September 16, 2017
Leader's seat Tuxedo Fort Rouge
Last election 36 seats, 47.07% 18 seats, 31.38%
Current seats 35 18
Seats needed Steady Increase11
 
Dougald_Lamont,_Manitoba_Liberal_Leader.jpg
Leader Dougald Lamont Janine Gibson
Party Liberal Green
Leader since October 21, 2017 March 26, 2023
Leader's seat St. Boniface No seat
Last election 3 seats, 14.48% 0 seats, 6.24%
Current seats 3 0
Seats needed Increase26 Increase29
Incumbent Premier

Heather Stefanson
Progressive Conservative



The 2023 Manitoba general election is scheduled to occur on October 3, 2023 to elect members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. The incumbent Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba will attempt to win a third term in government, having won the 2016 and 2019 elections. On August 10, 2021, incumbent premier Brian Pallister announced that he would not seek re-election, and shortly after, resigned. Heather Stefanson was chosen by Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba members to succeed Pallister's successor, Premier Kelvin Goertzen.[1][2]

Legislature summary

Manitoba Legislature
Party Leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2019 Current Next +/- Votes % +/-
Progressive Conservative Heather Stefanson 38 36 35
New Democratic Wab Kinew 37 18 18
Liberal Dougald Lamont 15 3 3
Green Janine Gibson 9 – – –
  Manitoba Wayne Sturby – – – – –
Communist Frank Komarniski – – – – –
  Keystone Kevin Friesen – – – – –
  Independents – – – – –
  Vacant 1 –
Blank and invalid votes
Total 97 57 57 –
Registered voters/turnout

Incumbents not running for reelection

Electoral district Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent nominee New MLA
Agassiz   Eileen Clarke[3]
 Jodie Byram
Brandon West   Reg Helwer[4] –
Fort Richmond   Sarah Guillemard[5] –
Kildonan-River East   Cathy Cox[6] Alana Vannahme
Lakeside   Ralph Eichler[7] Trevor King
La Verendrye   Dennis Smook[8] Konrad Narth
McPhillips   Shannon Martin[9] –
Midland   Blaine Pedersen[10]
 Lauren Stone
Portage la Prairie   Ian Wishart[11] Jeff Bereza
Roblin   Myrna Driedger[12] Kathleen Cook
Spruce Woods   Cliff Cullen[13] Grant Jackson
Selkirk   Alan Lagimodiere[14] Richard Perchotte

Candidates

See also: List of candidates of the 43rd Manitoba general election

Opinion polls

Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2019 election
Polling firm Dates
conducted 		Source PC NDP Liberal Green Others Margin
of error 		Sample
size 		Polling
method 		Lead
Kantar June 17–23, 2023 41% 40% 9% 6% 5% 4.5% 983 Telephone/Online 1%
Angus Reid May 30–June 3, 2023 [p 1] 39% 44% 10% 4% 4% 4% 515 Online 5%
March 26, 2023 Janine Gibson is elected leader of the Green Party of Manitoba
Probe Research Mar 8–Mar 20, 2023 [p 2] 38% 44% 9% 4% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Online 6%
Mainstreet Research Jan 24–Jan 26, 2023 [p 3] 36.2% 41.5% 14.6% 5.1% 2.1% 4.3% 514 Smart IVR 5.3%
Probe Research Nov 22–Dec 5, 2022 [p 4] 35% 46% 13% 3% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone/Online 11%
Probe Research Sep 8–Sep 18, 2022 [p 5] 37% 44% 15% 3% 1% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 7%
Angus Reid June 7–June 13, 2022 [p 6] 38% 40% 13% 3% 6% 5% 468 Online 2%
Probe Research Jun 1–Jun 12, 2022 [p 7] 35% 45% 13% 3% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
Probe Research Mar 9–Mar 21, 2022 [p 8] 34% 44% 15% 2% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
Angus Reid Mar 10–Mar 15, 2022 [p 9][p 10] 39% 40% 14% 3% 5% 4% 475 Online 1%
Angus Reid Jan 7–12, 2022 [p 11] 36% 42% 12% 3% 6% 5% 407 Online 6%
Probe Research Nov 23–Dec 5, 2021 [p 12] 37% 42% 12% 4% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 5%
October 30, 2021 Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party
Innovative Research Sep 24–Oct 5, 2021 [p 13] 41% 32% 18% 5% 3% N/A 678 Online 9%
Angus Reid Sep 29–Oct 3, 2021 [p 14] 38% 43% 11% 4% 5% N/A 435 Online 5%
Probe Research Sep 7–20, 2021 [p 15] 35% 42% 12% 3% 8% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 7%
Probe Research Jun 2–11, 2021 [p 16] 29% 47% 14% 5% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 18%
Angus Reid Jun 2–7, 2021 [p 17] 39% 42% 11% 4% 4% 4.0% 504 Online 3%
Probe Research Mar 10–26, 2021 [p 18] 36% 42% 11% 7% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 6%
Probe Research Nov 24–Dec 4, 2020 [p 19] 37% 41% 14% 6% 3% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 4%
Angus Reid Nov 24–30, 2020 [p 20] 39% 40% 12% 5% 4% 4.8% 420 Online 1%
Probe Research Sep 8–17, 2020 [p 21] 43% 34% 16% 5% 3% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 9%
EKOS Jul 24–Aug 26, 2020 [p 22] 44% 31% 12% 9% 4% 2.9% 1,154 HD-IVR 13%
EKOS Jun 16–Jul 23, 2020 [p 23] 43% 27% 18% 7% 5% 2.4% 1,691 HD-IVR 16%
Probe Research Jun 2–11, 2020 [p 24] 38% 36% 18% 7% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 2%
Innovative Research May 29–Jun 3, 2020 [p 25] 38% 26% 26% 10% N/A N/A 200 Online 12%
Probe Research Mar 10–24, 2020 [p 26] 43% 33% 14% 8% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
Probe Research Nov 27–Dec 10, 2019 [p 27] 42% 36% 13% 8% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 6%
2019 general election Sep 10, 2019 — 47.1% 31.4% 14.5% 6.4% 0.6% — — — 15.7%
Polling firm Dates
conducted 		Source Others Margin
of error 		Sample
size 		Polling
method 		Lead
PC NDP Liberal Green

By-elections prior to 2023 Election

Manitoba provincial by-election, March 22, 2022: Fort Whyte
Resignation of Brian Pallister
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Progressive Conservative Obby Khan 3,050 42.51 -14.68
Liberal Willard Reaves 2,853 39.77 +22.53
New Democratic Trudy Schroeder 1,112 15.50 -2.38
Independent Patrick Allard 101 1.41 —
Green Nicolas Geddert 55 0.77 -6.00
Total valid votes 7,174
Total rejected ballots 15 0.21 -0.33
Turnout 7,189 42.62 -14.57
Eligible voters 15,907 — -0.29
Progressive Conservative hold Swing -18.61
Source: Elections Manitoba[15][16]
Manitoba provincial by-election, June 7, 2022: Thompson
Death of Danielle Adams
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
New Democratic Eric Redhead 1,465 70.74 +16.19
Progressive Conservative Charlotte Larocque 581 28.05 -7.63
Total valid votes 2,046
Total rejected ballots 25 1.20
Turnout 2,071 19.34
Eligible voters 10,706 —
New Democratic hold Swing +12.44
These templates are an excerpt from 2022 Kirkfield Park provincial by-election § Results.[edit]
Manitoba provincial by-election, December 13, 2022: Kirkfield Park
Resignation of Scott Fielding
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Progressive Conservative Kevin Klein 2,357 37.04 –13.32
New Democratic Logan Oxenham 2,196 34.51 +8.82
Liberal Rhonda Nichol 1,741 27.36 +11.68
Green Dennis Bayomi 70 1.10 –7.19
Total valid votes 6,364 99.86
Total rejected ballots 11 0.17 –0.58
Turnout 6,375 36.50 –24.75
Eligible voters 17,468
Progressive Conservative hold Swing –11.07
Source: Elections Manitoba[17]


Opinion poll sources

  1. ^ "Double-digit advantage in Winnipeg has Manitoba NDP comfortably ahead in lead-up to October election". Angus Reid Institute. 13 June 2023. Retrieved 13 June 2023.
  2. ^ "Manitoba Provincial Party Support" (PDF). probe-research.com. Retrieved 2023-03-28.
  3. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Manitoba" (PDF). ipolitics.ca. Retrieved 2023-02-01.
  4. ^ "NDP Lead Inches Slightly Higher (December 2022 Omnibus) | Probe Research Inc". probe-research.com. Retrieved 2022-12-12.
  5. ^ "Support for Manitoba PCs has slipped since last election, NDP holds the lead | CTV News". ctvnews.ca. Retrieved 2022-09-27.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  6. ^ "Prairie Politics: Moe and Stefanson share a border, but residents' government satisfaction is worlds apart" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. 2022-07-08. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2022-07-09. Retrieved 2022-07-19.
  7. ^ "NDP Maintains Lead Over PCs In Manitoba (June 2022 Provincial Voting Intentions) | Probe Research Inc". probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2022-07-19. Retrieved 2022-06-19.
  8. ^ "Gap Between NDP, PCs Widens (March 2022 Provincial Voting Intentions) | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2022-07-19. Retrieved 2022-03-26.
  9. ^ "Provincial spotlight: Ontario, Alberta governments heavily criticized on nearly every aspect of provincial management". Angus Reid Institute. 2022-03-31. Archived from the original on 2022-03-31. Retrieved 2022-03-31.
  10. ^ "Detailed Results" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. 2022-03-31. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2022-03-31. Retrieved 2022-03-31.
  11. ^ "Spotlight on Provincial Politics: NDP edge PCPO in vote among Ontario voters, CAQ leads comfortably in Quebec" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. 2022-01-20. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2022-01-20. Retrieved 2022-01-21.
  12. ^ "No Bounce for New PC Leader and Premier | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2021-12-16. Retrieved 2021-12-16.
  13. ^ "Canada This Month: Manitoba Politics" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 2021-10-09. Retrieved 2021-10-11.
  14. ^ "Spotlight on the Provinces: Concerns over health care, economy drive increasing dissatisfaction with governments | Angus Reid Institute" (PDF). www.angusreid.org. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2021-10-27. Retrieved 2021-10-31.
  15. ^ "Progressive Conservative Support Rebounds in Manitoba | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2021-10-02. Retrieved 2021-10-12.
  16. ^ "NDP Lead Widens Further in Manitoba | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2021-06-18. Retrieved 2021-06-18.
  17. ^ "Premiers' Performance: Ford and Kenney's popularity and political fortunes bear brunt of pandemic management | Angus Reid Institute". www.angusreid.org. 9 June 2021. Archived from the original on 13 June 2021. Retrieved 13 June 2021.
  18. ^ "NDP Extends Lead as Pallister Plumbs Lower Levels of Popularity | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2021-03-31. Retrieved 2021-03-31.
  19. ^ "NDP Takes Lead for First Time Since 2016 | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2021-01-17. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  20. ^ virus/ "Provincial Spotlight: As pandemic wears on, governments losing support on economic, The CCP virus management". Angus Reid Institute. 2020-12-10. virus/ Archived from the original on 2021-01-13. Retrieved 2021-01-13. {{cite web}}: Check |archive-url= value (help); Check |url= value (help)
  21. ^ "Provincial PCs See Uptick in Support | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2021-01-27. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  22. ^ "Comfortable PC lead narrows in Manitoba". EKOS Politics. 2020-09-02. Archived from the original on 2021-01-14. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  23. ^ "Tories have comfortable lead over NDP in Manitoba". EKOS Politics. 2020-07-24. Archived from the original on 2021-01-20. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  24. ^ "PCs, NDP In Statistical Dead Heat | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2020-12-03. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  25. ^ virus-June-Manitoba-Report-20200612.pdf "Manitoba Politics in the Time of The CCP virus: June 2020 Update" (PDF). innovativeresearch.ca. virus-June-Manitoba-Report-20200612.pdf Archived (PDF) from the original on 2020-10-28. Retrieved October 31, 2021. {{cite web}}: Check |archive-url= value (help); Check |url= value (help)
  26. ^ "Provincial Party Support Remains Steady | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on 2020-12-03. Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  27. ^ Robertson, Dylan (2019-12-27). "Dec 2019: NDP gains traction after PC re-election". Winnipeg Free Press. Archived from the original on 2020-09-17. Retrieved 2021-01-13.

References

  1. ^ Petz, Sarah (August 11, 2021). "Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister stepping down before next election". CBC News. Archived from the original on August 30, 2021. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
  2. ^ Froese, Ian (October 30, 2021). "Heather Stefanson chosen as Manitoba's 1st female premier by a slim margin". CBC News. Archived from the original on October 30, 2021. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
  3. ^ Clarke, Eileen (21 August 2022). "I will be retiring from my political life as of the 2023 provincial election". Facebook. Retrieved 22 August 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  4. ^ Darren Bernhardt, Ian Froese, "Add Reg Helwer to growing list of Manitoba Tory MLAs bowing out of provincial politics". CBC News, January 6, 2023.
  5. ^ "Manitoba cabinet minister Sarah Guillemard won't run for re-election for health reasons". CBC Manitoba. The Canadian Press. June 13, 2023.
  6. ^ Darren Bernhardt (January 5, 2023). "Cathy Cox becomes the latest Tory MLA to decide against re-election bid". CBC Manitoba.
  7. ^ The Canadian Press, "Former Manitoba cabinet minister Ralph Eichler won’t seek re-election". Winnipeg Free Press, October 4, 2022.
  8. ^ Jordan Ross, "Smook to retire from legislature". Winnipeg Free Press, October 17, 2022.
  9. ^ Steve Lambert, The Canadian Press (February 22, 2023). "Shannon Martin is the latest Manitoba Tory to opt out of upcoming election". Winnipeg Free Press.
  10. ^ Blaine Pedersen [@BlainePedersen] (July 15, 2021). "I will not be seeking re-election in the next provincial election" (Tweet). Retrieved 15 July 2021 – via Twitter.
  11. ^ Michael Blume, "Portage MLA Ian Wishart won't be running in next election". Portage Online, December 16, 2022.
  12. ^ Ian Froese, "Veteran Tory MLA Myrna Driedger won't run in 2023 Manitoba election". CBC News, January 4, 2023.
  13. ^ Bartley Kives, "Deputy premier Cliff Cullen won't seek another term in Manitoba legislature". CBC News, December 29, 2022.
  14. ^ Ian Froese, "Indigenous reconciliation minister Alan Lagimodiere won't seek re-election in 2023". CBC News, January 3, 2023.
  15. ^ "Election Night Results Fort Whyte". Elections Manitoba. 22 March 2022. Archived from the original on 23 March 2022. Retrieved 22 March 2022.
  16. ^ "2022". Elections Manitoba. Retrieved 22 March 2022.
  17. ^ "2022 KIRKFIELD PARK BYELECTION RESULTS". Elections Manitoba. Retrieved 21 December 2022.
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