2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election

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See also: 2024 United States gubernatorial elections

2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent Governor

Roy Cooper
Democratic



Elections in North Carolina
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives
State executive
Gubernatorial elections
Lieutenant Governor elections
Attorney General elections
Council of State elections
Secretary of State elections
State legislature
State Senate elections
State House elections
State judiciary
Judicial elections
Ballot measures
2012
Amendment 1
Mayoral elections
Charlotte mayoral elections
Cary mayoral elections
Durham mayoral elections
Fayetteville mayoral elections
Greensboro mayoral elections
Raleigh mayoral elections
Winston-Salem mayoral elections

The 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the Governor of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various other state and local elections. Incumbent governor Roy Cooper is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third consecutive term in office. This is the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in 2024 in a state Donald Trump won in 2020. Primary elections will take place on March 5, 2024.[1]

Background

A typical swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red southern state at the federal level. Both U.S. senators from the state are members of the Republican Party. However, its U.S. House delegation is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, and Democrats hold multiple statewide offices in North Carolina, including the attorney general, secretary of state, and the governorship. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump carried North Carolina by 1.34 percentage points.[2][3]

The incumbent, Roy Cooper, was first elected in 2016, defeating then-incumbent governor Pat McCrory by about 0.2 points. Cooper was then re-elected in 2020 by 4.5 percentage points.[3][4]

The 2024 election is expected to be very competitive, as North Carolina is a purple to slightly red state and this election is taking place in a presidential year, and the incumbent is term-limited making this seat open. The first Democrat to enter the race was Josh Stein, the current Attorney General. He was followed by recently-retired N.C. Supreme Court Justice Michael R. Morgan. Two Republicans who are currently serving in positions that are elected statewide have declared their candidacy: Mark Robinson, the current lieutenant governor, and Dale Folwell, the current State Treasurer.[5]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Publicly expressed interest

  • Mark H. Robinson, cotton candy business owner (no relation to Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson)[8]

Declined

Endorsements

Josh Stein
U.S. representatives
Statewide elected officials
State supreme court justices
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Stein 		Michael
Morgan 		Other Undecided
Meredith College November 1–5, 2023 755 (RV) ± 3.5% 38% 11% 9% 42%
Meredith College September 16–19, 2023 308 (RV) ± 3.5% 33% 11% 10% 46%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Mandy
Cohen 		Jeff
Jackson 		Josh
Stein 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[A] October 7–8, 2022 606 (RV) ± 4.0% 18% 12% 22% 9% 39%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Mark Robinson
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Dale
Folwell 		Bill
Graham 		Mark
Robinson 		Jesse
Thomas 		Mark
Walker 		Andy
Wells 		Other Undecided
November 2, 2023 Thomas withdraws from the race
Meredith College November 1–5, 2023 755 (RV) ± 3.5% 3% 5% 41% 2% – 1% 6% 42%
October 25, 2023 Walker withdraws from the race
October 25, 2023 Graham joins the race
Cygnal[B] October 8–9, 2023 600 (LV) ± 3.9% 5% – 49% 1% 4% 1% – 41%
Meredith College September 16–19, 2023 350 (RV) ± 3.5% 3% – 34% 3% 7% 3% 6% 44%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Dale
Folwell 		Pat
McCrory 		Mark
Robinson 		Thom
Tillis 		Steve
Troxler 		Mark
Walker 		Other Undecided
Opinion Diagnostics June 5–7, 2023 902 (LV) ± 3.3% 4% - 44% - - 7% 7% 38%
SurveyUSA[B] April 25–29, 2023 707 (LV) ± 4.4% 4% - 43% - 9% 8% - 37%
The Differentiators (R) December 12, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.0% 6% - 60% - - - - 34%
- 21% 60% - - - - 19%
- - 58% - - 8% - 34%
Public Policy Polling (D)[A] October 7–8, 2022 606 (RV) ± 4.0% 4% - 54% 20% - - 5% 17%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[37] Lean D July 21, 2023
Inside Elections[38] Tossup September 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[39] Tossup July 13, 2023
Elections Daily[40] Tossup July 12, 2023

Polling

Josh Stein vs. Dale Folwell
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Stein (D) 		Dale
Folwell (R) 		Undecided
Cygnal (R)[B] May 12–23, 2023 610 (LV) ± 3.96% 39% 34% 27%
Josh Stein vs. Mark Robinson
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Stein (D) 		Mark
Robinson (R) 		Undecided
Meredith College November 1–5, 2023 755 (RV) ± 3.5% 38% 36% 19%
Change Research (D)[A] September 1–5, 2023 914 (LV) ± 3.6% 38% 42% 20%
Opinion Diagnostics June 5–7, 2023 902 (LV) ± 3.3% 38% 41% 21%
Cygnal (R)}[B] May 12–23, 2023 610 (LV) ± 3.96% 41% 42% 18%
Change Research (D)[A] May 5–8, 2023 802 (LV) ± 3.9% 43% 46% 11%
Public Policy Polling (D) March 2–3, 2023 704 (RV) ± 3.7% 42% 44% 14%
Differentiators (R)[C] January 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 42% 42% 16%
Public Policy Polling (D)[A] October 7–8, 2022 606 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 42% 14%
Meeting Street Insights (R)[D] May 12–16, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 48% 10%
Hypothetical polling
Josh Stein vs. Mark Walker
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Stein (D) 		Mark
Walker (R) 		Undecided
Cygnal (R)[B] May 12–23, 2023 610 (LV) ± 3.96% 39% 37% 24%

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d e This poll was sponsored by Carolina Forward
  2. ^ a b c d e This poll was sponsored by the John Locke Foundation
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by the NC Values Commission
  4. ^ This poll was sponsored by the Carolina Partnership for Reform

References

  1. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  2. ^ "Republican Ted Budd wins North Carolina's U.S. Senate race". AP NEWS. November 8, 2022. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  3. ^ a b "State Composite Abstract Report - Contest.pdf" (PDF). North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
  4. ^ "North Carolina Official General Election Results". North Carolina State Board of Elections. November 8, 2016. Retrieved January 5, 2017.
  5. ^ a b c d Schneider, Elena (January 18, 2023). "North Carolina AG Josh Stein launches bid for governor". POLITICO. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  6. ^ NC Newsline
  7. ^ Schoenbaum, Hannah (September 12, 2023). "Former North Carolina justice enters Democratic primary for governor in 2024". Associated Press.
  8. ^ Fain, Travis (June 12, 2023). "Mark Robinson (no, not that one) preps long-shot campaign on a bus named Bessie Murphy". WRAL. Retrieved June 19, 2023.
  9. ^ a b c d e Doyle, Steve (November 15, 2022). "Who will run to replace North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper? Here are 6 possibilities". FOX8 WGHP. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
  10. ^ a b c d "North Carolina AG Josh Stein running for governor in 2024".
  11. ^ a b c Doyle, Steve (January 18, 2023). "Democrat Josh Stein is running for North Carolina governor. But who else may be on the ballot? We have names". FOX8.
  12. ^ a b "Stein Kicks Off the 2024 Cycle".
  13. ^ "Josh Stein, NC's attorney general, announces his bid for governor".
  14. ^ Singer, Jeff (January 20, 2023). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/20".
  15. ^ "Democratic NC Attorney General Josh Stein to run for governor". January 18, 2023.
  16. ^ Hubbard, Kathryn (August 30, 2023). "Gov. Roy Cooper endorses AG Josh Stein for NC governor". WNCN.
  17. ^ Chi-Sing, Haley (January 18, 2023). "NC Democrat AG Stein announces run for governor, immediately slams Lt Gov Robinson". Fox News. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  18. ^ a b "NextGen PAC Endorses North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein for Governor Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
  19. ^ McMillan, MaryBe (June 8, 2023). "North Carolina AFL-CIO Endorses Josh Stein for Governor". NC State AFL-CIO. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  20. ^ "NCAE Endorses Attorney General Josh Stein for Governor in 2024". North Carolina Association of Educators. April 1, 2023. Retrieved August 4, 2023.
  21. ^ a b "End Citizens United / Let America Vote Endorses Josh Stein for North Carolina Governor". End Citizens United. May 31, 2023. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
  22. ^ "NCLCV Conservation PAC endorses AG Josh Stein for Governor". March 1, 2023. Retrieved August 4, 2023.
  23. ^ "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Attorney General Josh Stein for Governor in North Carolina". Reproductive Freedom for All. November 2, 2023. Archived from the original on November 2, 2023. Retrieved November 2, 2023.
  24. ^ Robertson, Gary (March 25, 2023). "North Carolina treasurer running for governor in 2024". The Seattle Times. Retrieved March 25, 2023.
  25. ^ Solano, Christina (October 18, 2023). "North Carolina's race for governor grows with campaign announcement by Bill Graham". WXII-TV. Retrieved October 18, 2023.
  26. ^ a b c d Mikkelsen, Emily; Stamps, Brayden (April 22, 2023). "Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson announces run for governor at cloudy Ace Speedway rally". Fox 8. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  27. ^ Fain, Travis (July 20, 2023). "Another Republican joins NC's 2024 governor's race". WRAL-TV.
  28. ^ "Retired health care executive entering North Carolina's 2024 governor's race as a Republican". WUNC (FM). August 8, 2023.
  29. ^ "Ex-health care executive ends bid for North Carolina governor, running now for secretary of state". Associated Press. November 2, 2023.
  30. ^ Woodhouse, Dallas. "Mark Walker exits governor's race to seek new Triad-area congressional seat". Carolina Journal. Retrieved October 25, 2023.
  31. ^ "U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis talks openly on hot topics, career ambitions and his song playlist".
  32. ^ "Trump Pledges to Endorse Mark Robinson for North Carolina Governor". U.S. News. June 10, 2023. Retrieved June 12, 2023.
  33. ^ Robertson, Gary D. (April 22, 2023). "Conservative Robinson joins race for N. Carolina governor". Associated Press. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  34. ^ a b Bajpai, Avi (April 22, 2023). "NC Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson officially launches his campaign for governor". News & Observer. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  35. ^ Doyle, Steve (May 25, 2023). "Shannon Bray becomes second Libertarian in race for North Carolina governor". WAVY News 10. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
  36. ^ Doyle, Steve (March 24, 2023). "Libertarian from Gaston County enters North Carolina governor's race". Fox 8. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  37. ^ "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  38. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  39. ^ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  40. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.

External links

Official campaign websites
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