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2024 United States presidential election

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2024 United States presidential election

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →

538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
Opinion polls
 
Nominee Joe Biden
(presumptive)
Donald Trump
(presumptive)
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris
(presumptive)
TBA

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2024 electoral map, based on the results of the 2020 census

Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, set to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] Voters will elect a president and vice president for a term of four years. Incumbent President Joe Biden, a member of the Democratic Party, is running for re-election.[2] His predecessor Donald Trump, a member of the Republican Party, is running for re-election for a second, non-consecutive term, after losing to him in 2020.[3] If both are nominated, this will mark the first presidential election rematch since 1956.[4]

The winner of this election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025. It will occur at the same time as elections relating to the U.S. Senate, House, gubernatorial, and state legislative. On March 12, Biden and Trump became the presumptive nominees for the Democratic and Republican parties respectively by clinching a majority of delegates, although they have yet to be confirmed at the nominating conventions.[5] Robert F. Kennedy Jr. emerged as the highest-polling third-party presidential candidate since Ross Perot[6] in the 1992 election, running as an independent.[7][8][9]

Abortion,[10][11][12] immigration, healthcare,[13] education,[14] the economy,[15] foreign policy,[16] border security,[17] LGBT rights,[18] climate change,[19][20] and democracy[21][22][23] are expected to be leading campaign issues.

In the run-up to the election, on May 30, 2024, Trump was convicted of 34 felonies related to falsifying business records, becoming the first president to be found guilty of a crime.[24]

Background

Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of primary elections that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention. Each party's national convention chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.

The general election in November is an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[25]

Election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny, so officials in many key states have sought for more funds to hire more personnel, improve security, and extend training. This demand emerges at a moment when numerous election offices are dealing with an increase in retirements and a flood of public record demands, owing in part to the electoral mistrust planted by former President Donald Trump's loss in the 2020 election. Both Biden and Trump are presumptive nominees for president in 2024, suggesting a rematch of the 2020 election, which would be the first presidential rematch since 1956.[26] If Trump is elected, he would become the second president to win a second non-consecutive term, joining Grover Cleveland who did so in 1892.[27]

Trump is the first president in American history to be impeached twice, and the first to run again after impeachment. Trump was first impeached by the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives in December 2019 for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress due to his attempts to coerce Ukraine to provide damaging information on Joe Biden and misinformation regarding Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections by withholding military aid.[28] Trump's second impeachment by the House occurred on January 13, 2021, for "incitement of insurrection" owing to his role in the January 6 United States Capitol attack. As Trump was acquitted by the Senate in both cases, Trump is not barred from seeking reelection to the presidency in 2024.[29]

The Colorado Supreme Court,[30] a state Circuit Court in Illinois,[31] and the Secretary of State of Maine[32] ruled that Trump is ineligible to hold office under Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution for his role in the January 6 Capitol attack, and as such, attempted to disqualify him from appearing on the ballot.[33][32] These attempts were unsuccessful, as on March 4, 2024, the United States Supreme Court unanimously ruled that states cannot determine eligibility for a national election under Section 3.[34]

Election interference

False claims of interference by Donald Trump

To sow election doubt, Trump has escalated use of "rigged election" and "election interference" statements in advance of the 2024 election compared to the previous two elections—the statements described as part of a "heads I win; tails you cheated" rhetorical strategy.[35]

Donald Trump has made false claims of voter fraud in the 2020 presidential election, and has continued denying the election results as of June 2024.[36][37] Election security experts have warned that officials who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election may attempt to impede the voting process or refuse to certify the 2024 election results.[38] In the lead up to the 2024 election, the Republican Party has made false claims of massive "noncitizen voting" by immigrants in an attempt to delegitimize the election if Trump loses.[39][40][41]

The claims have been made as part of a larger election denial movement in the United States.[42] Trump has continued spreading his "Big Lie" of a stolen election and has claimed without evidence that the 2024 election is rigged. Trump has baselessly claimed some version of "election interference" against him roughly once per day since announcing his 2024 candidacy. Trump has falsely accused Biden of "weaponizing" the Justice Department to target him in relation to his criminal trials.[35] Trump and several Republicans have stated they will not accept the results of the 2024 election if they believe they are "unfair."[43]

Trump's previous comments suggesting he can "terminate" the Constitution to reverse his election loss,[44][45] his claim that he would only be a dictator on "day one" of his presidency and not after,[a] his promise to use the Justice Department to go after his political enemies,[52] his plan to use the Insurrection Act of 1807 to deploy the military in Democratic cities and states,[53][54] attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, continued Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election, Trump's baseless predictions of vote fraud in the 2024 election,[55] and Trump's public embrace and celebration of the January 6 United States Capitol attack,[56] have raised concerns over the state of democracy in America.[57][58][59][60]

Interference by foreign nations

Current and former U.S. officials have stated that foreign interference in the 2024 election is likely. Three major factors cited were "America's deepening domestic political crises, the collapse of controversial attempts to control political speech on social media, and the rise of generative AI."[61] On April 1, 2024, The New York Times reported that the Chinese government had created fake pro-Trump accounts on social media "promoting conspiracy theories, stoking domestic divisions and attacking President Biden ahead of the election in November."[62] According to disinformation experts and intelligence agencies, Russia spread disinformation ahead of the 2024 election to damage Joe Biden and Democrats, boost candidates supporting isolationism, and undercut support for Ukraine aid and NATO.[63][64]

Criminal trials and indictments against Donald Trump

Trump's four criminal indictments totaling 91 felony counts and lawsuits against Trump are expected to be an issue during the 2024 presidential campaign.[65] On May 30, Trump was found guilty by a jury of all 34 felony counts in The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump over falsifying business records for hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels, to ensure her silence about a sexual encounter between them, to influence the 2016 presidential election. This makes Trump the first former U.S. president to be convicted of a crime in American history.[66] Trump and many Republicans have made numerous false and misleading statements regarding Trump's criminal trials, including false claims that they are "rigged" or "election interference" orchestrated by Joe Biden and the Democratic Party, of which there is no evidence.[67][35]

Trump faces an additional 57 felony counts; four counts in a United States of America v. Donald J. Trump for his alleged role in attempting to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election and involvement in the January 6 United States Capitol attack; 10 counts in The State of Georgia v. Donald J. Trump, et al. for his alleged attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 United States presidential election in Georgia; 40 counts in United States of America v. Donald J. Trump, Waltine Nauta, and Carlos De Oliveira relating to his hoarding of classified documents and alleged obstruction of efforts to retrieve them.[68]

In addition to his indictments, on May 9, 2023, Trump was found guilty by an anonymous jury[69] for sexual abuse[70] in E. Jean Carroll v. Donald J. Trump and ordered to pay a total of $88.3 million combined for damages and defamation.[71][72][73] In September 2023, Trump was found guilty of financial fraud and ordered to pay a $457 million judgement currently on appeal.[74]

According to an April 2024 Reuters/Ipsos poll, the percentage of registered voters who found Trump's charges somewhat to very serious in the federal elections case was 74%, 72% in the Georgia case, 69% in the classified documents case, and 64% in the New York hush money case.[75] Nearly a quarter of Republican voters said they would not vote for Trump if found guilty of a felony by a jury.[74] Following his hush money conviction, 15% of likely Republican voters and 49% of independents stated they wanted Trump to drop out, and 54% of registered voters approved of the jury's decision.[76] Polling also found 56% of Republicans who were unchanged by the verdict, and 35% of Republicans and 18% of independents who stated they were more likely to vote for Trump.[77]

Trump has been noted for attempting to delay his trials until after the November election. If Trump wins the election in November, on January 20, 2025, Trump could order a new attorney general to dismiss the federal charges he is facing, prevent the state charges from taking affect through a variety of methods, and issue a presidential self-pardon.[78][79]

Electoral map

Effects of the 2020 census

This will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College following the 2020 United States census.[80][81] If the results of the 2020 election were to stay the same (which has never occurred in the history of presidential elections) in 2024, Democrats would have 303 electoral votes against the Republicans' 235, a slight change from Biden's 306 electoral votes and Trump's 232, meaning that Democrats lost a net of 3 electoral votes to the reapportionment process. This apportionment of electoral college votes will remain only through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States census.[82]

Historical background

The expected partisan lean of the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia on the presidential level. The shading of each state denotes the winner's two-party vote share, averaged between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. States that flipped in 2020 are colored gray.

In recent presidential elections, most states are not competitive due to demographics keeping them solidly behind one of the major parties. Because of the nature of the Electoral College, this means that the various swing states — competitive states that "swing" between the Democratic and Republican parties — are vital to winning the presidency. As of now, these include states in the Rust Belt, such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and states in the Sun Belt, such as Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.[83] Strategists in both parties have stated the election will likely be decided by six percent of voters in these six states.[84]

North Carolina may also be considered a battleground state, due to the close result in the previous presidential election, in which Trump only won by 1.34%.[85] Due to gradual demographic shifts, some former swing states such as Iowa, Ohio and Florida have shifted significantly towards the Republicans, favoring them in future statewide and local elections. Meanwhile, former swing states like Colorado, New Mexico and Oregon have moved noticeably towards the Democrats, and the party has become the dominant political force there.[86][87][88]

The Democratic electoral coalition, securing the "blue states" for Democratic presidential candidates, performs best among Jewish and Black voters;[89][90] Whites who have attended college[91] or live in urban areas.[92] Working class voters were also a mainstay of the Democratic coalition since the days of the New Deal, but since the 1970s, many have defected to Republicans as the Democratic Party moved significantly to the left on cultural issues.[93] Conversely, the traditional Republican coalition that dominates many "red states" is mainly composed of rural White voters, evangelicals, the elderly, and non-college educated voters.[94] Republicans have also historically performed well with suburban, middle class voters since the 1950s, but this bloc has drifted away from them in recent years due to the rise of the Tea Party movement and later the Make America Great Again movement.[95] The acceleration of this trend has been credited with tipping the 2020 presidential election in favor of Democrat Joe Biden, because the incumbent Trump was historically unpopular in the suburbs for a Republican candidate, underperforming there significantly.[96]

Some polling for this election has indicated that Democratic strength among Hispanic, Asian, Arab, and youth voters appears to have somewhat eroded, while Republicans' durability with Whites and voters over the age of 65 also appears to be slipping.[97][98][99][100][101] However, some political analysts[102] have argued that these apparent trends in polling are not representative of the actual electorate, and are a polling mirage resulting from poor sampling months before the election, large numbers of voters who do not think the election will be between Biden and Trump,[103] and heavy non-response bias.[104][105][106][107]

Abortion,[108][11][109] immigration, healthcare,[13] education,[14] the economy,[15] foreign policy,[16] border security,[17] LGBT rights,[18] climate change,[19][110] and democracy[21][22][23] are expected to be leading campaign issues.

Campaign issues

Abortion

Abortion-rights protestors in Washington, D.C., on May 14, 2022, as part of the Bans Off Our Bodies protest following the leaked draft opinion overturning Roe v. Wade.

Abortion access is expected to be a key topic during the campaign. This is the first presidential election to be held in the aftermath of two major court rulings that affected access to abortion. The first is the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, in which the United States Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, leaving abortion law entirely to the states, including bans on abortion.[111] The three justices appointed by former president Donald Trump—Amy Coney Barrett, Brett Kavanaugh, and Neil Gorsuch—all voted to overturn the federal right to an abortion in Dobbs.[112] The second court case is the 2023 Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine v. U.S. Food and Drug Administration, in which a federal judge in northwest Texas overturned the FDA's approval of mifepristone in 2000, which could potentially pull the medication from the market if upheld by higher courts.[113] Both rulings have received strong support from Republican politicians and lawmakers.[111][113]

Democrats are predominantly supportive of viewing abortion access as a right[114] while Republican politicians generally favor significantly restricting the legality of abortion.[115] By April 2023, most Republican-controlled states had passed near-total bans on abortion, rendering it largely illegal throughout much of the United States. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, there are 15 states that have de jure early-stage bans on abortion without exceptions for rape or incest.[111]

Biden has called on Congress to codify abortion protections into federal law, and held many rallies on the issue.[116][117] Trump has claimed credit for overturning Roe, but has criticized Republicans pushing for total abortion bans.[118][119] Trump has said he will leave the issue of abortion for the states to decide, but would allow red states to monitor women's pregnancies and prosecute them if they have an abortion.[120]

Border security and immigration

Polling has shown that border security and immigration are among the top issues concerning potential voters in the 2024 presidential election.[121][122] In 2023 and 2024, a surge of migrants entering the country through the United States' border with Mexico occurred.[123]

Donald Trump has pledged to finish the wall on the southern border if elected.

Donald Trump has stated that if elected, he would increase deportations, send the U.S. military to the border, expand ICE detentions through workplace raids,[124] deputize local law enforcement to handle border security, increase Customs and Border Patrol funding as well as finish building the wall on the southern border.[125] The New York Times reported that Trump plans "an extreme expansion of his first-term crackdown on immigration," including "preparing to round up undocumented people already in the United States on a vast scale and detain them in sprawling camps while they wait to be expelled."[124] Trump has stated his intention to deport 11 million people through the construction of detention camps and using the military.[120]

Biden has stated his intention to increase funding and resources for border patrol and enforcement, provide a path for people in the United States to apply for legal status and eventually citizenship, and create a smoother and expanded visa process for foreign graduates of American universities.[126] The Biden administration has undertaken a policy of punishing migrants who enter the country illegally and providing temporary protections to migrants from certain countries such as Venezuela, Ukraine, Nicaragua, Cuba and Haiti. This has resulted in a total increase in migrants legally arriving at points of entry, and a decrease in migrants attempting to illegally cross the border.[125]

In February 2024, Biden and congressional negotiators reached a bipartisan agreement on a bill to secure the border that included many conservative demands and also unlocked aid to Ukraine and Israel, but the bill was opposed by Trump who claimed it would hurt Republicans' ability to run on immigration as a campaign issue.[127][128][129][130][131][132] On June 4, 2024, Biden passed an executive order to shut down the border if illegal crossings reached an average of 2,500 migrants a day in a given week.[133]

Trump's anti-immigration tone is noted to have grown harsher from his previous time as president,[124] and has drawn criticism for using more dehumanizing rhetoric when referring to some illegal immigrants. Trump has called some immigrants "not human", "not people", and "animals".[134][135][136] Since fall 2023,[137] Trump has claimed that immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country," which has drawn comparisons to racial hygiene rhetoric used by white supremacists and Adolf Hitler.[138][139][137][140] Trump's comments come as part of violent, dehumanizing rhetoric Trump has increasingly utilized during his campaign.[141][134][142][140][143][144]

Kennedy has stated that he supports securing the border, including efforts like Operation Lone Star by states in the absence of federal action.[145]

Climate change

Climate change is expected to be an issue in the 2024 presidential election.[19]

President Joe Biden signing the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) into law in the State Dining Room of the White House on August 16, 2022. The IRA is the largest investment in addressing climate change in U.S. history.[146]

Biden has stated he believes in human-caused climate change.[147] Biden previously strengthened environmental protections that had been weakened during the Trump administration. Biden passed the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest investment in addressing climate change and clean energy in US history.[148] Biden has also overseen a record in US crude oil production with over 13.2 million barrels of crude per day beating the 13 million barrels per day produced at the peak of Trump's presidency. Biden has previously stated his intention to lower prices at the gas pump, which experts believe is key to his 2024 reelection campaign.[149] Biden's first term dealt with supply shocks caused by the 2021-2024 global energy crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine.[150]

Trump is running on a climate change denial platform.[151][152][153] Trump has repeatedly referred to his energy policy under the mantra "drill, baby, drill",[154] has promised to increase oil drilling on public lands and offer tax breaks to oil, gas, and coal producers. Trump has stated his goal for the U.S. to have the lowest cost of electricity and energy of any country in the world.[155] Trump has promised to rollback electric vehicle initiatives, proposed leaving the Paris Climate Accords, and rescinding several environmental regulations.[155][156]

Democracy

The election will come as the first presidential election following Trump's former attempts to overturn the 2020 election and January 6 United States Capitol attack. It also comes amidst Trump's federal indictment for attempting to overturn the 2020 election and involvement in the attack and racketeering charges for attempting to overturn Joe Biden's victory in the state of Georgia.

Joe Biden has been framing the election as a battle for democracy, which was similar to his framing of contemporary geopolitics as "the battle between democracy and autocracy."[157] Biden's rhetoric previously cited democracy and "a battle for the soul of our nation" as the key message of his 2020 presidential campaign, and uses it as a recurring element in his rhetoric since the 2020 presidential election.[22]

Polling before the election has indicated profound dissatisfaction with the state of American democracy.[158][159][160] Liberals tend to believe that conservatives are threatening the country with autocratic tendencies and their attempts to overturn the 2020 election.[161] Some Republicans are concerned that Trump's former impeachment and four criminal indictments are attempts to influence the election and keep him from office.[162] However, there is no evidence that Trump's criminal trials are "election interference" orchestrated by Joe Biden and the Democratic Party.[67][35]

Donald Trump's 2024 campaign has been criticized by the media for making increasingly violent and authoritarian statements,[163][164][165] which some believe the Trump campaign is intentionally leaning into.[57] Trump's platform calls for the vast expansion of presidential powers and the executive branch over every part of the federal government.[166] Trump has called for stripping employment protections for thousands of career civil service employees and replacing them with political loyalists if deemed an 'obstacle to his agenda' within federal agencies, the United States Intelligence Community, State Department, and Department of Defense.[167]

Trump's campaign has been noted for using increasingly dehumanizing and violent rhetoric against his political enemies.[141][134][142][140][143][144] Trump has promised to pardon those charged for their involvement in the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack and has called those charged "hostages" and "great, great patriots."[168][169][170] Trump has played down but not ruled out violence after the 2024 election if he does not win, stating, "it depends."[171]

Speaking on Erin Burnett OutFront, Kennedy said that President Biden poses a bigger threat to democracy than Donald Trump.[172] Trump has claimed that Joe Biden is the "destroyer"[173] and real threat to democracy,[174] and has repeated false claims that the 2020 election was rigged and stolen from him, of which there has been no evidence. Trump's claims have been made as part of a larger election denial movement conspiracy theory in the United States.[173]

Democracy is expected to be a large issue in the 2024 election. An AP-NORC poll of 1,074 adults conducted between November 30 to December 4, 2023, found that 62% of adults said democracy could be at risk depending on who wins the next election.[175]

Economic issues

The inflation rate, United States and eurozone, January 2018 to March 2024. Inflation notably increased during the 2021–2023 inflation surge.

Voters consistently cite economic issues as their top issue for the 2024 election.[176][177][178] A period of high inflation began in 2021, caused by a confluence of events including the pandemic and a supply-chain crisis, which was then heightened by economic effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.[179][180] Opinion polling over Biden's handling of the economy has consistently been negative since late 2021.[181]

Women were particularly affected by the economic downturn in the wake of the pandemic, particularly those who left their work for childcare responsibilities.[182] Temporary childcare measures, including an expanded child tax credit as part of the American Rescue Plan, were introduced as methods designed to help the economic situation of parents, but these would expire before the 2024 election.[183]

Both Biden and Trump signed pieces of economic legislation in their first terms which they may tout in the 2024 campaign.[184] Biden signed the American Rescue Plan,[185] Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act,[186] Inflation Reduction Act,[187] CHIPS and Science Act,[188] and the Fiscal Responsibility Act.[189] Trump signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,[190] the CARES Act,[191] and several executive orders providing for de-regulation.[192]

Biden has dubbed his economic policy "Bidenomics" and has promised to create middle-class jobs and reject trickle-down economics.[193] Biden has proposed increasing taxes on large corporations and wealthy Americans to reduce the deficit and help fund programs for the poor and middle class by instituting a "billionaire minimum income tax."[194] Biden's trade agenda has been noted to reject traditional neoliberal economic policies and the Washington Consensus in favor of de-risking supply chains from China and reverse neoliberal policies that resulted in the offshoring of manufacturing and thus resulted in increased populist backlash.[195]

Trump has proposed further individual and corporate tax cuts beyond his prior 2017 tax cuts.[196] Trump has argued that keeping taxes low for the wealthy increases job creation.[194] Trump's stated trade policy involves the United States decoupling from the global economy and having the country become more self-contained and exerting its power through individual trade dealings. This would be accomplished through a universal baseline tariff[197] of 10% on all imports,[198] with increased penalties if trade partners manipulate their currency or engage in unfair trade practices.[155]

Trump has called for 100% tariffs on cars made outside the U.S. and a minimum 60% tariff on Chinese goods.[198] Trump stated his plans to urge Congress to pass a "Trump Reciprocal Trade Act" to bestow presidential authority to impose a reciprocal tariff on any country that imposed one on the United States.[155] The Washington Post reported in January 2024 that Trump was preparing for a massive trade war.[199] Trump's trade policies have been described as protectionist,[200] neomercantilist or autarkist.[197][201]

Education

Under the Biden administration, several rounds of student loan forgiveness have been issued, totaling over $132 billion. The forgiveness has largely focused on public servants, people who were defrauded, and people in repayment for long periods of time.[202] In August 2022, Biden announced he would sign an executive order that would forgive large amounts of student debt, including $10,000 for student loan debt for single graduates making less than $125,000 or married couples making less than $250,000 and $20,000 for recipients of Pell Grants.[203][204]

In June 2023, this plan was overturned in the Supreme Court decision Biden v. Nebraska.[205][206] In the aftermath of the decision, Biden has continued with more limited student loan forgiveness.[202] His plans have been criticized by Republicans as irresponsible spending.[207] Biden stated that offering universal pre-kindergarten services as well as caregiver support would be a priority of a second term.[208]

Some Republican candidates saw education as a winning campaign issue. Dozens of states have created laws preventing the instruction of critical race theory, an academic discipline focused on the examination of racial inequality. Supporters of the laws claim that conversations about racial identity are not appropriate for a school environment.[209][210][14] Critics of the laws against critical race theory claim they whitewash American history and act as memory laws to rewrite public memory of U.S. history.[211] Trump has pledged to terminate the Department of Education,[155] claiming it has been infiltrated by "radical zealots and Marxists."[212]

Foreign policy

United States President Joe Biden signing Executive Order 14065 in February 2022 in response to Russia's eminent invasion of Ukraine. The United States has given billions worth of military aid to Ukraine following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The ongoing Israel–Hamas war and Russian invasion of Ukraine are expected to be significant issues of the election.[213]

The United States has provided significant military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine throughout the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[214][215][216] Biden has made strengthening the NATO alliance and preparing for great power competition a cornerstone of his first term in office,[217] and has promised to defend the NATO alliance during his second term.[218] Donald Trump claims that Ukraine and suppressing Russian intervention should not be a significant interest to the United States, and that the plan should be more limited.[219]

Trump previously stated he would potentially recognize Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea,[220] and made suggestions that he could have prevented the war by ceding parts of eastern Ukraine to Russia.[221] Trump's 2024 campaign has reiterated its isolationist "America First" foreign policy agenda,[221] and has promised to "fundamentally reevaluate" NATO's purpose and mission.[155] Trump has stated he would encourage Russia to "do whatever the hell they want" to countries that did not contribute enough to NATO.[222]

During the Israel–Hamas war, Biden announced "unequivocal" military support for Israel, and condemned the actions of Hamas and other Palestinian militants as terrorism.[223] Biden has requested 10.6 billion dollars of aid for Israel to Congress.[224] Biden's support for Israel has been criticized by progressives and Muslim leaders, many of whom have indicated they will not vote for Biden over the war.[225] By March 2024, Biden has become increasingly critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and has authorized air drops of aid and announced the construction of a military port to facilitate the delivery of aid to the enclave.[226][227] Kennedy condemned Hamas' attacks on Israeli civilians and declared support for aid to Israel.[228] Trump has given mixed messages on the war, pledging to support Israel and take a tough line on Iran, while also criticizing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and praising Hezbollah as "very smart."[229][230]

Israel-Hamas war views

Polling has indicated a significant divide between government policy on the Israel–Hamas war and the views of the general public.[231] During the election, several pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian protests occurred in the United States. Biden voiced support for the right to protest but criticized when they became violent or antisemitic.[232] Trump has stated he would shut down Palestinian protests, deport demonstrators, and "set the movement back 25 or 30 years."[233]

A November 2023 poll had 68% of Americans agreeing with a statement that "Israel should call a ceasefire and try to negotiate" and a plurality opposed military aid to Israel, favoring the United States as a neutral meditator.[231] A February 2024 Associated Press poll found that 44% saw Israel as "a partner that the U.S. should cooperate with, but doesn't share its interests and values", while 35% saw Israel "as an ally that shares U.S. interests and values". 50% of Americans believed Israel had "gone too far" in its response, 31% thought Israel had "been about right" and 15% thought Israel had "not gone far enough".[234] Young Americans are significantly less supportive of Israel than older generations.[235][236] However, polling showed the war was only a "top concern" for 2% of young voters, well below inflation, the economy, and immigration.[237]

Healthcare issues

The issue of healthcare and drug policy, including whether the United States should shift to a universal healthcare system,[238] and the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to play a key role in the 2024 presidential election.[239]

Trump has made repealing the Affordable Care Act a key issue of the 2024 election.[13] During an interview on March 11, 2024, Trump suggested he was open to cutting entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare, which the Trump campaign later claimed was merely referring to "cutting waste" and that he would protect the programs. Trump previously suggested while president in 2020 that he would "at some point" look into cutting entitlement programs, and Trump's previous budget proposals have suggested some cuts to the programs. During the Republican primary, Trump attacked his opponents by suggesting they would cut entitlement benefits.[240][241]

Biden has touted the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which expanded the Affordable Care Act and included provisions to reduce prescription drug prices for people on Medicare.[242] Biden has promised to protect and defend the Affordable Care Act after Trump commented he would seek to replace the law if he wins a second term,[243][244] and Republican senators expressed openness to repealing certain sections of the law.[245][246] Biden has promised to defend Social Security and Medicare following comments made by Trump that suggested he was open to cutting the entitlement programs.[240][241] Biden has also signaled his intention to expand the price cap on the cost of insulin at $35 for Medicare recipients enacted as part of the Inflation Reduction Act to private insurance.[126] Biden previously signed one of the largest expansions in veterans benefits in American history through the Honoring our PACT Act of 2022 that provided medical care for veterans exposed to toxic burn pits.[247]

Kennedy has been a prominent anti-vaccine advocate, but according to Deseret News, he has attempted to moderate his anti-vaccine position before the election, stating that he is not against all vaccines.[248] West is running on a platform of Medicare-for-all.[249]

LGBT rights

Students in Des Moines protesting an anti-trans law signed by Republican Governor Kim Reynolds in 2022

In recent years, conservative politicians in state legislatures have introduced a large and growing number of bills that restrict the rights of LGBT people, especially transgender people.[250][251]

In his term as president, Biden signed the Respect for Marriage Act, which codified protections for same-sex and interracial marriage into law. Additionally, he has endorsed the Equality Act, legislation aiming to extend the Civil Rights Act of 1964 to offer protection on the basis of gender identity and sexual orientation across various domains such as in the workplace, housing, and health care sectors. In 2023, Biden directed the federal government to provide strategies to states on how to enhance access to healthcare and suicide prevention resources for the LGBT community.[252]

Trump has promised a rollback on trans rights.[253] Trump stated he will rescind Biden's Title IX protections "on day one" for transgender students using bathrooms, locker rooms, and pronouns that align with their gender identities.[254] Trump has stated he would enact a federal law that would recognize only two genders and claimed that being transgender is a concept made up by "the radical left."[255] Trump has promised "severe consequences" for teachers that "suggest to a child that they could be trapped in the wrong body." Trump previously removed Title IX protections to ensure transgender youth had access to bathrooms of their choice and took steps to roll back transgender protections in the Affordable Care Act.[253]

Democratic Party

The popular vote results of the 2024 Democratic presidential primaries
  No popular vote held

On April 25, 2023, President Joe Biden announced his run for re-election, keeping Vice President Kamala Harris as his running mate.[256][257] Consequently, Republicans have intensified their criticism of Harris since Biden declared his intention to run for office.[258] During late 2021, as Biden was facing low approval ratings, there was speculation that he would not seek re-election,[259] and some prominent Democrats, Representatives Carolyn Maloney, Tim Ryan and former Representative Joe Cunningham, publicly urged Biden not to run.[260][261][262]

In addition to Biden's unpopularity, many are concerned about his age; he was the oldest person to assume the office at age 78 and would be 82 at the end of his first term. If re-elected, he would be 86 at the end of his second term.[263] According to an NBC poll released in April 2023, 70 percent of Americans—including 51 percent of Democrats—believe Biden should not run for a second term. Almost half said it was because of his age. According to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average, Biden's current approval rating is 41 percent, while 55 percent disapprove.[264] There was also speculation that Biden may face a primary challenge from a member of the Democratic Party's progressive faction.[265][266] After Democrats outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterm elections, many believed the chances that Biden would run for and win his party's nomination had increased.[267]

Author Marianne Williamson announced her candidacy in February 2023, before Biden announced his own candidacy for re-election. Williamson had previously sought the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020.[268] In April 2023, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his candidacy for the nomination.[269] On October 9, 2023, Kennedy announced that he would be dropping out of the Democratic primary and would instead run as an independent candidate.[270] Representative Dean Phillips announced his run against Biden on October 26.[271] Venture capitalist Jason Palmer announced his campaign on October 22.[272]

On March 6, 2024, Philips suspended his campaign after failing to win any primaries the previous night on Super Tuesday[273], followed by Williamson on June 11.[274] Despite being perceived as a minor candidate, Palmer won the 2024 American Samoa Democratic presidential caucuses, making him the first candidate to win a contested primary against an incumbent president since Ted Kennedy in 1980.[275] He won no other contests and suspended his candidacy on May 15, 2024.[276]

On March 12, 2024, Biden officially became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.[277]

Presumptive nominee

2024 Democratic Party ticket
Joe Biden Kamala Harris
for President for Vice President
46th
President of the United States
(2021–present)
49th
Vice President of the United States
(2021–present)


Republican Party

Results of the 2024 Republican presidential primaries

Donald Trump, the then-incumbent president, was defeated by Biden in the 2020 election and is not term-limited to run again in 2024, making him the fifth ex-president to seek a second non-consecutive term. If he wins, Trump would be the second president to win a non-consecutive term, after Grover Cleveland in 1892.[278] Trump filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on November 15, 2022, and announced his candidacy in a speech at Mar-a-Lago the same day.[279][280] Trump is considered an early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, following his 2024 campaign announcement on November 15, 2022.[281] Trump announced in March 2022 that if he runs for re-election and wins the Republican presidential nomination, his former vice president Mike Pence will not be his running mate.[282]

In March 2023, Trump was indicted over his hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.[283] Trump was again indicted in June over his handling of classified documents which contained materials sensitive to national security. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges related to these indictments.[284][285]

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was seen as the main challenger to Trump for the Republican nomination; he raised more campaign funds in the first half of 2022 and had more favorable polling numbers than Trump by the end of 2022.[286][287][288] On May 24, 2023, DeSantis announced his candidacy on Twitter in an online conversation with Twitter CEO Elon Musk. "American decline is not inevitable—it is a choice...I am running for president of the United States to lead our great American comeback", DeSantis added. His campaign stated to have raised $1 million in the first hour following the announcement of his candidacy.[289] Speaking on Fox & Friends, he stated that he would "destroy leftism" in the United States.[290] At the end of July 2023, FiveThirtyEight's national polling average of the Republican primaries had Trump at 52 percent, and DeSantis at 15.[291]

Following the Iowa caucuses, in which Trump posted a landslide victory, DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump, leaving the former president and Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor who served in Trump's cabinet, as the only remaining major candidates.[292][293] Trump continued to win all four early voting contests while Haley's campaign struggled to gain momentum.[294] On March 6, 2024, the day after winning only one primary out of fifteen on Super Tuesday, Haley suspended her campaign. Trump became the only remaining major candidate for the Republican presidential nomination.[295]

On March 12, 2024, Trump officially became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.[296]

Presumptive nominee

2024 Republican Party ticket
Donald Trump TBA
for President for Vice President
45th
President of the United States
(2017–2021)
TBA


Third-party and independent candidates

Third-party and independent candidates have also announced presidential runs. They include Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Cornel West. Centrist political organization No Labels intended to field a third-party "unity ticket", before abandoning their efforts in April 2024.[297] Some established third parties, such as the American Solidarity Party, the Prohibition Party, the Constitution Party, the Libertarian Party and the Party for Socialism and Liberation have announced presidential nominees, while the Green Party, has begun their primaries. While independent/third-party candidates often do better in opinion polls than actual election performance,[8] third-party candidates, as of April 2024, have the strongest showing in polls since Ross Perot's high poll numbers in the 1990s.[298]

Notable party nominations

The following individuals have been nominated by their respective parties to run for president.

With majority ballot access

Libertarian Party

Chase Oliver was chosen by the Libertarian Party as its presidential nominee on May 26, 2024, at the 2024 Libertarian National Convention. Oliver was the party's candidate in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia.[299] As of May 2024, the party has ballot access in at least 37 states with a total of 380 electoral votes.[300]

2024 Libertarian Party ticket
Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat
for President for Vice President
Sales account executive
from Georgia
Economist
from Virginia


Green Party

Jill Stein announced on May 26, 2024, that her campaign had accrued enough delegates to secure the Green Party nomination and thus became the presumptive nominee.[301][302][303] Stein was the party's candidate back in 2012 and 2016. Stein is a physician and a former member of the Lexington Town Meeting. No running mate has yet been announced, with the 2024 Green National Convention to take place from August 15 to 18, 2024.[304] As of June 2024, Stein has ballot access both on Green Party and Independent ballot lines in at least 22 states with a total of 273 electoral votes.[305][better source needed]

2024 Green Party ticket
Jill Stein TBA
for President for Vice President
Physician
from Massachusetts
TBA


With partial ballot access

These parties have ballot access in some states, but not enough to get 270 votes to win the presidency, without running a write-in campaign.

Without ballot access

Notable declared candidates

The following individuals have declared their intent to run for president.

Independents

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., after initially running in the Democratic primary, became an independent candidate in October 2023.[316][317] A member of the Kennedy family, he is an environmental lawyer who promotes conspiracy theories.[318][319] He has drawn support among independent and anti-establishment voters disillusioned with mainstream American political parties.[320][321] His polling, as of November 2023, was at the highest levels for a candidate outside the two major parties since 1992.[7][8] A member of the Kennedy family, Kennedy is a son of U.S. attorney general and senator Robert F. Kennedy and nephew of U.S. president John F. Kennedy and senator Ted Kennedy. On March 26, 2024, Kennedy announced Nicole Shanahan, an attorney from California, as his running mate.[322]

0px
0px
2024 independent ticket
(with the "We The People" party in some states)
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Nicole Shanahan
for President for Vice President
Environmental lawyer
from California
Attorney and technologist
from California


Cornel West

Cornel West is a socialist activist and intellectual who announced a campaign as an independent after initially announcing a run as a People's Party and later a Green Party candidate.[249] His running mate is Melina Abdullah, an academic and civic leader from California.

0px
0px
2024 independent ticket
(with the "Justice For All" party in some states)
Cornel West Melina Abdullah
for President for Vice President
Academic and activist
from California
Academic and civic leader
from California


Other independent candidates

Withdrawn candidates

The following notable individual(s) announced and then suspended their campaigns before the election:

Opinion polling and forecasts

Opinion polling aggregation

Biden and Trump

Local regression of two-way polling between Trump and Biden conducted up to the 2024 United States presidential election (excludes others and undecided)
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[c]
Margin
RealClearPolitics May 21 – June 6, 2024 June 10, 2024 44.8% 45.3% 9.9% Trump +0.5
Race to the WH through May 30, 2024 June 10, 2024 45.1% 45.1% 9.8% Tied
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill through May 30, 2024 June 12, 2024 44.3% 45.3% 10.4% Trump +1.0
Average 44.7% 45.2% 10.1% Trump +0.5

Biden, Trump, and Kennedy

Local regression of two-way polling between Trump, Biden and Kennedy conducted up to the 2024 United States presidential election (excludes others and undecided)
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.

Independent
Other/
Undecided
[c]
Margin
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill through May 30, 2024 June 12, 2024 39.8% 41.8% 8.0% 10.4% Trump +2.0
538 through May 31, 2024 June 4, 2024 40.0% 40.9% 9.4% 9.7% Trump +0.9
Average 39.9% 41.35% 8.7% 10.05% Trump +1.45

Biden, Trump, Kennedy, West, and Stein

Poll source Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.

Independent
Cornel
West

Independent
Jill
Stein

Green
Other/
Undecided
Margin
RealClearPolitics through May 30, 2024 June 4, 2024 40.1% 42.1% 8.6% 1.7% 1.4% 6.1% Trump +2.0
Race to the WH through May 30, 2024 June 4, 2024 40.0% 41.4% 8.7% 1.5% 1.5% 6.9% Trump +1.4
Average 40.1% 41.8% 8.7% 1.6% 1.5% 6.3% Trump +1.7

Electoral College forecasts

Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts of the composition of the Electoral College. These forecasts use a variety of factors to estimate the likelihood of each candidate winning the Electoral College electors for that state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • "lean" or "leans": slight advantage
  • "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory

Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by all forecasters (The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, CNalysis, Decision Desk HQ, The Economist, and CNN) are omitted for brevity.

State EVs PVI[335] 2020
result
2020
margin[336]
IE
May 8,
2024
[337]
Cook
June 12,
2024
[338]
CNalysis
May 23,
2024
[339]
Sabato
January 3,
2024
[340]
CNN
January 31,
2024
[341]
DDHQ/The Hill
May 30,
2024
[342]
FiveThirtyEight
June 11,
2024
[343]
The Economist
June 12,
2024
[344]
Alaska 3 R+8 52.8% R 10.06% Solid R Solid R Very Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Arizona 11 R+2 49.4% D 0.31% Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip)
Colorado 10 D+4 55.4% D 13.50% Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Florida 30 R+3 51.2% R 3.36% Lean R Likely R Very Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R
Georgia 16 R+3 49.5% D 0.24% Tossup Tossup Tilt R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip)
Iowa 6 R+6 53.1% R 8.20% Likely R Solid R Solid R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Maine[d] 2 D+2 53.1% D 9.07% Likely D Likely D Very Likely D Likely D Solid D Lean D Likely D Lean D
ME–02[d] 1 R+6 52.3% R 7.44% Lean R Likely R Very Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Michigan 15 R+1 50.6% D 2.78% Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup
Minnesota 10 D+1 52.4% D 7.11% Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D
NE–02[d] 1 EVEN 52.0% D[e] 6.50% Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D
Nevada 6 R+1 50.1% D 2.39% Tossup Tossup Tilt R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup
New Hampshire 4 D+1 52.7% D 7.35% Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D
New Jersey 5 D+6 57.3% D 15.94% Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D Likely D
New Mexico 5 D+3 54.3% D 10.79% Solid D Likely D Solid D Likely D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D
North Carolina 16 R+3 49.9% R 1.35% Tilt R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R
Ohio 17 R+6 53.3% R 8.03% Likely R Solid R Solid R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Oregon 8 D+6 56.4% D 16.08% Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Pennsylvania 19 R+2 50.0% D 1.16% Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Texas 40 R+5 52.1% R 5.58% Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Virginia 13 D+3 54.1% D 10.11% Likely D Likely D Very Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D
Wisconsin 10 R+2 49.5% D 0.63% Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Overall D – 226
R – 235
77 tossups
D – 226
R – 235
77 tossups
D – 226
R – 257
55 tossups
D – 260
R – 235
43 tossups
D – 225
R – 272
41 tossups
D – 226
R – 235
77 tossups
D – 226
R – 219
93 tossups
D – 226
R – 262
50 tossups

Debates

In April 2022, the Republican National Committee voted unanimously to withdraw from the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD).[345] In May 2024, the Biden campaign proposed holding two debates outside of the CPD schedule and declined to appear at CPD-hosted debates. Both Biden and Trump agreed to a debate hosted by CNN on June 27 and one hosted by ABC News on September 10.[346]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Attributed to multiple references:[46][47][48][49][50][51]
  2. ^ Ayyadurai is not eligible to serve as president as he is not a natural-born citizen, but he claims he can run for office.
  3. ^ a b Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ a b c Unlike the other 48 states and Washington, D.C., which award all of their electors to the candidate who receives the most votes in that state, Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the winner of the statewide vote and one each to the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district.
  5. ^ The boundaries of Nebraska's 2nd congressional district have since changed due to redistricting.

References

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