2024 United States presidential election
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538 members of the Electoral College 270 electoral votes needed to win | |||
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  2024 electoral map, based on 2020 census | |||
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 2024 U.S. presidential election | |
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The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] It will be the first presidential election after electoral votes were redistributed during the 2020 census reapportionment cycle. The incumbent, President Joe Biden, stated in January 2022 his intent to run for reelection with Vice President Kamala Harris as his running mate.[2] As of January 2023[update], Biden has not formally announced a reelection campaign.[3] In November 2022, former president Donald Trump announced his candidacy for president for a second, nonconsecutive term.[4]
In the United States, general elections follow caucuses and primary elections held by the major parties to determine their nominees. The winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025.
Background
Procedure
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Both incumbent president Biden and former president Donald Trump are eligible to seek reelection. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, which is awarded through a process such as a primary election. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket, which is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.
Similarly, the general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[5] If no candidate receives the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, a contingent election will be held in which the House of Representatives will select the president from the three candidates who received the most electoral votes (this last happened in 1825), and the Senate will select the vice president from the candidates who received the two highest totals (this last happened in 1837). The presidential election will occur simultaneously with House of Representatives elections, Senate elections, and various state and local-level elections.
Both Biden and Trump have indicated that they intend to run for president in 2024, suggesting a potential rematch of the 2020 election, which would be the first rematch since the 1956 United States presidential election.[6] If Trump is elected, he would become the first president since Grover Cleveland in 1892 to win a second non-consecutive term.[7]
Effects of the 2020 census
This will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College following the 2020 United States census.[8][9] This apportionment of electoral college votes will remain through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States census.[10]
Potential campaign issues
Abortion
The Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision in June 2022, which overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision and permitted U.S. states to fully ban abortion for the first time in nearly 50 years, has made abortion a more significant issue. In the 2024 election, the topic of abortion is expected to play a role in the Republican primary. Potential candidates are divided on the matter, with former Vice President Mike Pence supporting a nationwide ban on abortion, whereas other potential candidates have struck a less aggressive tone and suggested that the matter should remain the decision of state governments.[11]
COVID-19 pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic left behind significant economic effects which could persist into the 2024 presidential election. The high visibility governors received during their responses to the pandemic has been viewed as having given them a boost in possible 2024 contention, in contrast to the significant advantage senators have had in recent cycles.[12][better source needed]
Crime and gun violence
To combat gun violence, President Biden has advocated for an assault weapons ban as well as federal funding to train and deploy more police.[13][14]
Democracy and insurrection threats
Donald Trump did not concede defeat to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, citing unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud, and has continued denying the election results as of 2022[update].[15][16] Republican officials in the Trump administration and in Congress have supported attempts to overturn the election.[17][18] Concerns have been raised by election security experts that officials who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election may attempt to impede the voting process or refuse to certify the 2024 election results.
In the 2022 United States elections, the majority of Republican candidates in five battleground states falsely claimed or implied that the 2020 presidential election was illegitimate.[19] Election legitimacy was a major political issue during the 2022 elections, and it is credited for unexpectedly strong Democratic performance that year.[20][21] Nevertheless, according to the New York Times, by November 9, nearly 200 election deniers had been elected to office.[22]
In August 2022, Ali Alexander, who organized one of the many rallies preceding the January 6 United States Capitol attack, stated that he would be returning to the Capitol building in 2025 "for whatever the Congress certifies."[23]
Economy
As of October 17, 2022, a New York Times/Siena College poll indicated that Americans were most concerned about the state of the economy and the rate of inflation.[24]
Democratic Party
Incumbent president Joe Biden has consistently stated that he plans to run for re-election and keep vice president Kamala Harris as his running mate.[2] However, he has yet to officially declare his candidacy. During late 2021, as Biden was suffering from low approval ratings, there was speculation that he would not seek re-election,[25] and some prominent Democrats have publicly urged Biden not to run.[26][27][28] In addition to Biden's unpopularity, many are concerned about his age; he was the oldest person to assume the office at age 78 and would be 82 at the end of his first term. If reelected, he would be 86 at the end of his second term.[29] There has also been speculation that Biden may face a primary challenge from a member of the Democratic Party's progressive faction.[30][31] However, Biden's approval rating slowly recovered throughout 2022, climbing from the low 30s to the high 40s.[32] Additionally, after Democrats outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterm elections, many believed the chances that Biden would run for and win his party's nomination had increased.[33] If Biden is not the nominee in 2024, it will be the first election since 1968 in which an eligible[a] incumbent president was not the eventual nominee of their party after Lyndon B. Johnson, and if he chooses not to seek re-election, it will be the first election since 1928 in which an eligible incumbent president did not seek re-election after Calvin Coolidge.[b]
Republican Party
Donald Trump was defeated by Biden in 2020 and is currently eligible to run again in 2024. Currently he is seeking to become the second president to serve two non-consecutive terms, after only Grover Cleveland (who did so by winning the 1892 United States presidential election).[35][36] Trump is considered an early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, following his 2024 campaign announcement on November 15, 2022.[37] However, there are multiple factors working against Trump: the hearings held by the United States House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack have damaged public opinion towards him,[38][39] and in 2022 the FBI searched Trump's estate at Mar-a-Lago.[40][41] Although Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has not officially announced a presidential run, he is often seen as a main contender to Trump for the presidency; DeSantis raised more campaign funds in the first half of 2022, and had more favorable polling numbers than Trump by the end of 2022.[42][43][44]
Trump announced in March 2022 that if he runs for re-election and wins the Republican presidential nomination, his former vice president Mike Pence will not be his running mate.[45] If Trump runs against President Biden again, it will be the first presidential rematch since 1956 after Dwight D. Eisenhower successfully ran for reelection against Adlai Stevenson II. Trump filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission on November 15, 2022, and announced his candidacy in a speech at Mar-a-Lago the same day.[46][47]
Declared candidates
| Name | Born | Experience | Home state | Campaign Announcement date |
Ref[48] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
.jpg) Donald Trump |
June 14, 1946 (age 76) Queens, New York |
President of the United States (2017–2021) Chairman of The Trump Organization (1971–2017) |
 |
 Campaign Announced November 15, 2022 FEC filing[49] |
[50] |
Libertarian Party
Declared
As of January 2023,[update] the following individuals have declared their intent to run for president.
- Mike ter Maat, economist, police officer for the Hallandale Beach Police Department, and nominee for FL-20 in 2022[51]
Formed exploratory committee
As of January 2023,[update] the following individuals have announced exploratory committees to look into running for president within the previous six months.
- Chase Oliver, chair of the Atlanta Libertarian Party and nominee for U.S. Senate in Georgia in 2022[52]
Independents, other third parties, or party unknown
Candidates
Declared intent to run
As of January 2023,[update] the following individuals have declared their intent to run for president.
- Afroman (Joseph Edgar Foreman), rapper[53]
- Kanye West, rapper and candidate for president in 2020 (campaign)[54]
Potential candidates
- Tulsi Gabbard, former United States Representative from HI-02 (2013–2021), member of the Honolulu City Council (2011–2012), member of the Hawaii House of Representatives (2002–2004), and Democratic candidate for president in 2020[55]
Declined to be candidates
- Mark Cuban, investor and entrepreneur[56]
- Dwayne Johnson, actor and businessman[57]
- Kyrsten Sinema, United States Senator from Arizona (2019–present), United States Representative from AZ-09 (2013–2019), Member of the Arizona Senate (2011–2012), Member of the Arizona House of Representatives (2005–2011)[58]
Vice presidential speculation
Rapper Kanye West has claimed on Twitter that he has talked with Trump about being his running mate for 2024. West has not said if Trump has accepted or declined his offer, and Trump has not responded to these claims from West.[59]
General election opinion polling
Hypothetical polling
- Biden vs. Trump
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/Undecided [c] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | January 14 – February 1, 2023 | February 5, 2023 | 43.3% | 45.0% | 11.7% | Trump +1.7 |
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates | January 19–24, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Morning Consult | January 20–22, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| Emerson College | January 19–21, 2023 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| Cygnal | January 19–20, 2023 | 2,529 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Marquette University | January 9–20, 2023 | 790 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Harvard/Harris | January 18–19, 2023 | 2,050 (RV) | – | 41% | 46% | 13% |
| YouGov/The Economist | January 14–17, 2023 | 1,314 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | January 16, 2023 | 1,458 (LV) | – | 39% | 41% | 20% |
| YouGov/YahooNews | January 12–16, 2023 | 1,028 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
| Morning Consult | January 10–12, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Morning Consult | January 6–8, 2023 | 7,500 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 41% | 15% |
| WPA Intelligence | January 2–8, 2023 | 1,035 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| Morning Consult | December 31, 2022 – January 2, 2023 | 8,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 44% | 40% | 16% |
| Data for Progress | December 22–29, 2022 | 1,189 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | December 15–19, 2022 | 1,041 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Morning Consult | December 16–18, 2022 | 7,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Harvard/Harris | December 14–15, 2022 | 1,851 (RV) | – | 40% | 45% | 15% |
| Echelon Insights | December 12–14, 2022 | 1,021 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | December 9–14, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Morning Consult | December 9–11, 2022 | 7,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Suffolk University | December 7–11, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | December 3–7, 2022 | 1,500 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | December 5, 2022 | 1,162 (LV) | – | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | December 1–5, 2022 | 1,204 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Marquette University | November 15–22, 2022 | 840 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 34% | 22% |
| Emerson College | November 18–19, 2022 | 1,380 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Echelon Insights | November 17–19, 2022 | 1,036 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 17, 2022 | 1,203 (LV) | – | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Harvard/Harris | November 16–17, 2022 | 2,212 (RV) | – | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Léger | November 11–13, 2022 | 1,007 (A) | – | 36% | 33% | 31% |
| Rasmussen Reports | November 8–9, 2022 | 1,767 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| 2022 midterm elections | ||||||
| Democracy Corps/GQR | November 6–8, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | – | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 2, 2022 | 1,084 (LV) | – | 39% | 44% | 17% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | October 27–31, 2022 | 1,172 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Benenson Strategy Group | October 27–30, 2022 | 1,000 (V) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights | October 24–26, 2022 | 1,014 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | October 22–26, 2022 | 1,500 (RV) | – | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Suffolk University | October 19–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Emerson College | October 18–19, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | October 13–17, 2022 | 1,209 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | October 12–17, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 44% | 50% | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| Harvard/Harris | October 12–13, 2022 | 2,010 (RV) | – | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 12, 2022 | 1,110 (LV) | – | 40% | 41% | 19% |
| Siena College/The New York Times | October 9–12, 2022 | 792 (LV) | – | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| John Zogby Strategies | October 5, 2022 | 1,006 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 2–3, 2022 | 1,128 (LV) | – | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | September 23–27, 2022 | 1,138 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | September 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| Emerson College | September 20–21, 2022 | 1,368 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | September 18–21, 2022 | 908 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Premise | September 16–19, 2022 | 1,703 (A) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
| Echelon Insights | September 16–19, 2022 | 1,056 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Refield & Wilton Strategies | September 14–15, 2022 | 1,163 (LV) | – | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Marquette University | September 6–14, 2022 | 1,282 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 36% | 22% |
| Siena College/The New York Times | September 6–14, 2022 | 1,399 (RV) | – | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Harvard/Harris | September 7–8, 2022 | 1,854 (RV) | – | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 1,228 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | September 2–6, 2022 | 1,247 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Premise | September 2–5, 2022 | 1,185 (RV) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 28, 2022 | 1,050 (LV) | – | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | August 17–25, 2022 | 1,313 (RV) | – | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| Emerson College | August 23–24, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | August 20–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| Echelon Insights | August 19–22, 2022 | 1,054 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 42% | 11% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | August 18–22, 2022 | 1,185 (RV) | – | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | August 17, 2022 | 1,156 (LV) | – | 39% | 42% | 19% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | July 28 – August 1, 2022 | 1,152 (RV) | – | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | July 29, 2022 | 1,094 (LV) | – | 35% | 42% | 23% |
| Harvard/Harris | July 27–28, 2022 | 1,885 (RV) | – | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 26–27, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| Suffolk University | July 22–25, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Emerson College | July 19–20, 2022 | 1,078 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Echelon Insights | July 15–18, 2022 | 1,022 (LV) | – | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | July 11–14, 2022 | 1,085 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 48% | 10% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | July 8–11, 2022 | 1,261 (RV) | – | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | July 9, 2022 | 1,078 (LV) | – | 41% | 43% | 16% |
| The New York Times/Siena College | July 5–7, 2022 | 849 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 44% | 41% | 14% |
| Harvard/Harris | June 28–29, 2022 | 1,308 (RV) | – | 40% | 43% | 17% |
| Emerson College | June 28–29, 2022 | 1,271 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 39% | 44% | 17% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | June 24–27, 2022 | 1,239 (RV) | – | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | June 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Echelon Insights | June 17–20, 2022 | 1,030 (LV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | June 15, 2022 | 1,064 (LV) | – | 38% | 41% | 21% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | June 10–13, 2022 | 1,243 (RV) | – | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | May 30, 2022 | 1,173 (LV) | – | 38% | 42% | 20% |
| Emerson College | May 24–25, 2022 | 1,148 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Echelon Insights | May 20–23, 2022 | 1,020 (LV) | – | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | May 19–22, 2022 | 1,360 (RV) | – | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Harvard/Harris | May 18–19, 2022 | 1,963 (RV) | – | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | May 17, 2022 | 1,120 (LV) | – | 39% | 42% | 19% |
| Rasmussen Reports | April 28 – May 2, 2022 | 1,004 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 50% | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | May 1, 2022 | 1,096 (LV) | – | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| Emerson College | April 25–26, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | April 22–26, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 43% | 50% | 7% |
| Morning Consult | April 22–25, 2022 | 2,004 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | April 21–23, 2022 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | April 19–22, 2022 | 1,187 (RV) | – | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Harvard/Harris | April 20–21, 2022 | 1,966 (RV) | – | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights | April 18–20, 2022 | 1,001 (LV) | – | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | April 18, 2022 | 1,500 (LV) | – | 41% | 43% | 16% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | March 31 – April 4, 2022 | 1,233 (RV) | – | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | April 3, 2022 | 1,205 (LV) | – | 38% | 43% | 19% |
| Marquette Law School | March 14–24, 2022 | 1,004 (A) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 37% | 22% |
| Harvard/Harris | March 23–24, 2022 | 1,990 (RV) | – | 41% | 47% | 12% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | March 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Echelon Insights | March 18–21, 2022 | 1,050 (RV) | – | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell | March 15–21, 2022 | 873 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | March 20, 2022 | 1,193 (LV) | – | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| Emerson College | March 18–20, 2022 | 1,023 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | March 10–14, 2022 | 1,225 (RV) | – | 47% | 39% | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | March 8, 2022 | 1,194 (LV) | – | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Wall Street Journal | March 2–7, 2022 | 1,500 (RV) | – | 45% | 45% | 9% |
| Schoen Cooperman Research | March 2–6, 2022 | 800 (LV) | – | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | February 24–27, 2022 | 1,532 (A) | ± 2.9% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
| NewsNation | February 23–24, 2022 | 1,046 (RV) | – | 37% | 41% | 22% |
| Harvard/Harris | February 23–24, 2022 | 2,026 (RV) | – | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights | February 19–23, 2022 | 1,078 (RV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | February 23, 2022 | 1,367 (LV) | – | 42% | 38% | 20% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | February 16–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Emerson College | February 19–20, 2022 | 1,138 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | February 6, 2022 | 1,406 (LV) | – | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | January 20–24, 2022 | 1,568 (A) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| Morning Consult | January 22–23, 2022 | 2,005 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Echelon Insights | January 21–23, 2022 | 1,098 (RV) | – | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| Marquette Law School[e] | January 10–21, 2022 | 1,000 (A) | – | 43% | 33% | 24% |
| Harvard/Harris | January 19–20, 2022 | 1,815 (RV) | – | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | January 13–18, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | January 8–9, 2022 | 1,430 (LV) | – | 39% | 38% | 23% |
| PMC/John Bolton Super Pac | January 6, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports | January 5, 2022 | 1,015 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | December 17–19, 2021 | 750 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 41% | 49% | 10% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | December 18, 2021 | 1,411 (LV) | – | 34% | 39% | 27% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | December 9–13, 2021 | 1,558 (A) | – | 47% | 41% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights | December 9–13, 2021 | 1,098 (RV) | – | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | December 5, 2021 | 1,387 (LV) | – | 38% | 42% | 20% |
| Harvard/Harris | November 30 – December 2, 2021 | 1,989 (RV) | – | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports | November 22–23, 2021 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 32% | 45% | 23% |
| Wall Street Journal | November 16–22, 2021 | 1,500 (RV) | – | 46% | 45% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights[permanent dead link] | November 12–18, 2021 | 1,013 (RV) | – | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | November 11–16, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | November 15, 2021 | 1,500 (RV) | – | 35% | 41% | 24% |
| Marquette Law School[f] | November 1–10, 2021 | 1,004 (A) | – | 42% | 34% | 24% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | November 4–8, 2021 | 1,673 (A) | – | 43% | 39% | 18% |
| Suffolk University | November 3–5, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
| Emerson College | November 3–4, 2021 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | October 31, 2021 | 1,387 (LV) | – | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| Harvard/Harris | October 26–28, 2021 | 1,578 (LV) | – | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | October 19–21, 2021 | 1,704 (A) | – | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Echelon Insights | October 15–19, 2021 | 1,098 (RV) | – | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | October 17, 2021 | 1,366 (LV) | – | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| Selzer and Company/Grinnell College | October 13–17, 2021 | 745 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 40% | 19% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | October 4–6, 2021 | 1,345 (LV) | – | 43% | 41% | 16% |
| Echelon Insights | September 17–23, 2021 | 1,005 (RV) | – | 50% | 39% | 11% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 21–22, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 51% | 8% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | September 19–20, 2021 | 1,330 (LV) | – | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | September 9–14, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 47% | 50% | 3% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | September 4–5, 2021 | 1,357 (LV) | – | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Emerson College | August 30 – September 1, 2021 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 16–17, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 43% | 20% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | July 30 – August 2, 2021 | 1,552 (A) | – | 47% | 37% | 16% |
| PMC/John Bolton Super Pac | July 8, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 46% | 43% | 11% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | June 22–24, 2021 | 1,592 (A) | – | 47% | 35% | 18% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | May 24–26, 2021 | 1,588 (A) | – | 46% | 36% | 18% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | May 11–13, 2021 | 1,561 (A) | – | 48% | 36% | 16% |
| Ipsos/Reuters | April 12–16, 2021 | 1,106 (A) | – | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| PMC/John Bolton Super Pac | April 3–7, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 46% | 42% | 12% |
- Biden vs. Trump vs. Andrew Yang
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Andrew Yang Forward |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | August 19–22, 2022 | 1,054 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 39% | 8% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights | October 15–19, 2021 | 1,098 (RV) | – | 44% | 40% | 5% | 11% |
- Biden vs. Trump vs. Matthew McConaughey
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Matthew McConaughey |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Bullfinch Group | August 5–8, 2022 | 1,008 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 39% | 14% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights | June 17–20, 2022 | 1,030 (RV) | – | 39% | 40% | 11% | 9% |
- Biden vs. Trump with Liz Cheney as an independent
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Liz Cheney Independent |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premise | September 2–5, 2022 | 1,185 (RV) | – | 37% | 42% | 21% | – |
| Echelon Insights | August 19–22, 2022 | 1,054 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 38% | 41% | 12% | 9% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | August 18–22, 2022 | 1,185 (RV) | – | 32% | 40% | 11% | 17% |
- Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other/Undecided [c] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | December 7, 2022 – January 21, 2023 | January 22, 2023 | 41.3% | 42.8% | 15.9% | DeSantis +1.5 |
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | January 20–22, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 41% | 43% | 16% |
| Emerson College | January 19–21, 2023 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
| Cygnal | January 19–20, 2023 | 2,529 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Marquette University | January 9–20, 2023 | 790 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 45% | 17% |
| Harvard/Harris | January 18–19, 2023 | 2,050 (RV) | – | 39% | 42% | 19% |
| YouGov/The Economist | January 14–17, 2023 | 1,314 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | January 16, 2023 | 1,458 (RV) | – | 40% | 38% | 22% |
| YouGov/YahooNews | January 12–16, 2023 | 1,028 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Morning Consult | January 10–12, 2023 | 6,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| Morning Consult | January 6–8, 2023 | 7,500 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| WPA Intelligence | January 2–8, 2023 | 1,035 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Morning Consult | December 31, 2022 – January 2, 2023 | 8,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | December 15–19, 2022 | 1,041 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| Morning Consult | December 16–18, 2022 | 7,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Harvard/Harris | December 14–15, 2022 | 1,851 (RV) | – | 39% | 43% | 18% |
| Echelon Insights | December 12–14, 2022 | 1,021 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Morning Consult | December 9–11, 2022 | 7,000 (RV) | ± 1.0% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| Suffolk University | December 7–11, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | December 5, 2022 | 1,162 (LV) | – | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | December 1–5, 2022 | 1,204 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Marquette University | November 15–22, 2022 | 840 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| Emerson College | November 18–19, 2022 | 1,380 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 43% | 39% | 18% |
| Echelon Insights | November 17–19, 2022 | 1,036 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 17, 2022 | 1,203 (LV) | – | 43% | 39% | 18% |
| Harvard/Harris | November 16–17, 2022 | 2,212 (RV) | – | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| Léger | November 11–13, 2022 | 1,007 (A) | – | 33% | 35% | 32% |
| 2022 midterm elections | ||||||
| Democracy Corps/GQR | November 6–8, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | – | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Marquette University | September 6–14, 2022 | 1,282 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 38% | 19% |
| Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 1,228 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 41% | 13% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | July 28 – August 1, 2022 | 1,152 (RV) | – | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights | July 15–18, 2022 | 1,022 (LV) | – | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | June 24–27, 2022 | 1,239 (RV) | – | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports | April 28 – May 2, 2022 | 1,004 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 35% | 46% | 19% |
| Marquette Law School | March 14–24, 2022 | 1,004 (A) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 33% | 29% |
| Morning Consult | January 22–23, 2022 | 2,005 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 44% | 39% | 17% |
| Marquette Law School[g] | January 10–21, 2022 | 1,000 (A) | – | 41% | 33% | 26% |
| Harvard/Harris | November 30 – December 2, 2021 | 1,989 (RV) | – | 43% | 36% | 21% |
| Emerson College | August 30 – September 1, 2021 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 48% | 36% | 16% |
| Echelon Insights | April 16–23, 2021 | 1,043 (RV) | – | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Ipsos/Reuters | April 12–16, 2021 | 1,105 (A) | – | 41% | 25% | 34% |
- Biden vs. DeSantis with Trump as an independent
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Donald Trump Independent |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | August 19–22, 2022 | 1,054 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 23% | 21% | 10% |
- Biden vs. Ted Cruz
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ted Cruz Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 37% | 20% |
| Morning Consult | January 22–23, 2022 | 2,005 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 39% | 16% |
| Ipsos/Reuters | April 12–16, 2021 | 1,105 (A) | – | 46% | 24% | 30% |
- Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 33% | 28% |
| Ipsos/Reuters | April 12–16, 2021 | 1,107 (A) | – | 44% | 19% | 37% |
- Biden vs. Mitt Romney
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Mitt Romney Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 33% | 31% |
| Echelon Insights | March 18–21, 2022 | 1,050 (RV) | – | 41% | 35% | 24% |
| Emerson College | August 30 – September 1, 2021 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 42% | 23% | 35% |
- Biden vs. Mike Pence
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Mike Pence Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal | January 19–20, 2023 | 2,529 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| 2022 midterm elections | ||||||
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
| Marquette Law School | March 14–24, 2022 | 1,004 (A) | ± 4.0% | 37% | 33% | 29% |
| Morning Consult | January 22–23, 2022 | 2,005 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
- Biden vs. Liz Cheney
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Liz Cheney Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | November 18–19, 2022 | 1,380 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 37% | 19% | 44% |
| 2022 midterm elections | ||||||
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 32% | 25% | 43% |
| Premise | September 2–5, 2022 | 1,185 (RV) | – | 42% | 58% | – |
- Biden vs. Chris Christie
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Chris Christie Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 30% | 31% |
- Biden vs. Tom Cotton
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Tom Cotton Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 31% | 32% |
- Biden vs. Josh Hawley
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Josh Hawley Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 31% | 31% |
- Biden vs. Larry Hogan
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Larry Hogan Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 35% | 28% | 37% |
- Biden vs. Kristi Noem
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Kristi Noem Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 31% | 32% |
- Biden vs. Mike Pompeo
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Mike Pompeo Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 32% | 29% |
- Biden vs. Marco Rubio
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Marco Rubio Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
- Biden vs. Rick Scott
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Rick Scott Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 33% | 29% |
- Biden vs. Tim Scott
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Tim Scott Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | November 2–7, 2022 | 3,980 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 32% | 31% |
- Biden vs. generic Republican
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Generic Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morning Consult | April 22–25, 2022 | 2,004 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 39% | 46% | 15% |
| Morning Consult | January 22–23, 2022 | 2,005 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 37% | 46% | 17% |
- Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates | January 19–24, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 40% | 50% | 10% |
| Harvard/Harris | January 18–19, 2023 | 2,050 (RV) | – | 40% | 48% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | January 16, 2023 | 1,458 (RV) | – | 39% | 42% | 19% |
| Harvard/Harris | December 14–15, 2022 | 1,851 (RV) | – | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | December 9–14, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 42% | 49% | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | December 5, 2022 | 1,162 (LV) | – | 41% | 43% | 16% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 17, 2022 | 1,203 (LV) | – | 43% | 43% | 14% |
| Harvard/Harris | November 16–17, 2022 | 2,212 (RV) | – | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| 2022 midterm elections | ||||||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | November 2, 2022 | 1,084 (LV) | – | 38% | 45% | 17% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | October 12–17, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 42% | 51% | 7% |
| Harvard/Harris | October 12–13, 2022 | 2,010 (RV) | – | 38% | 49% | 13% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 12, 2022 | 1,110 (LV) | – | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 2–3, 2022 | 1,128 (LV) | – | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | September 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 42% | 51% | 7% |
| Refield & Wilton Strategies | September 14–15, 2022 | 1,163 (LV) | – | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Harvard/Harris | September 7–8, 2022 | 1,854 (RV) | – | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | August 28, 2022 | 1,050 (LV) | – | 40% | 43% | 17% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | August 20–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 43% | 51% | 6% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | August 17, 2022 | 1,156 (LV) | – | 37% | 43% | 20% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | July 28 – August 1, 2022 | 1,152 (RV) | – | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | July 29, 2022 | 1,094 (LV) | – | 36% | 42% | 22% |
| Harvard/Harris | July 27–28, 2022 | 1,885 (RV) | – | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights | July 15–18, 2022 | 1,022 (LV) | – | 46% | 44% | 10% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | July 9, 2022 | 1,078 (LV) | – | 39% | 43% | 18% |
| Harvard/Harris | June 28–29, 2022 | 1,308 (RV) | – | 39% | 45% | 16% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | June 24–27, 2022 | 1,239 (RV) | – | 44% | 45% | 11% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | June 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 42% | 50% | 8% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | June 15, 2022 | 1,064 (LV) | – | 37% | 43% | 20% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | May 30, 2022 | 1,173 (LV) | – | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| Harvard/Harris | May 18–19, 2022 | 1,963 (RV) | – | 40% | 47% | 14% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | May 17, 2022 | 1,120 (LV) | – | 37% | 44% | 19% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | May 1, 2022 | 1,096 (LV) | – | 39% | 43% | 18% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | April 22–26, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 41% | 51% | 8% |
| Harvard/Harris | April 20–21, 2022 | 1,966 (RV) | – | 41% | 47% | 12% |
| Echelon Insights | April 18–20, 2022 | 1,001 (LV) | – | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | April 18, 2022 | 1,500 (LV) | – | 39% | 45% | 16% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | April 3, 2022 | 1,205 (LV) | – | 35% | 44% | 21% |
| Harvard/Harris | March 23–24, 2022 | 1,990 (RV) | – | 38% | 49% | 13% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | March 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 42% | 50% | 8% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | March 20, 2022 | 1,193 (LV) | – | 39% | 42% | 19% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | March 8, 2022 | 1,194 (LV) | – | 37% | 42% | 21% |
| Schoen Cooperman Research | March 2–6, 2022 | 800 (LV) | – | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| Harvard/Harris | February 23–24, 2022 | 2,026 (RV) | – | 39% | 51% | 10% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | February 23, 2022 | 1,367 (LV) | – | 41% | 37% | 22% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | February 16–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 43% | 50% | 7% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | February 6, 2022 | 1,406 (RV) | – | 40% | 43% | 17% |
| Harvard/Harris | January 19–20, 2022 | 1,815 (RV) | – | 39% | 49% | 12% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | January 13–18, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 40% | 51% | 9% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | January 8–9, 2022 | 1,430 (LV) | – | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | December 5, 2021 | 1,387 (LV) | – | 38% | 42% | 20% |
| Harvard/Harris | November 30 – December 2, 2021 | 1,989 (RV) | – | 41% | 50% | 9% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | November 11–16, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 42% | 50% | 8% |
| Redfield and Wilton Strategies | November 15, 2021 | 1,500 (RV) | – | 33% | 42% | 25% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | October 14–18, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 21–22, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 52% | 9% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | September 9–14, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | July 29 – August 3, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Echelon Insights | June 18–22, 2021 | 1,001 (RV) | – | 47% | 40% | 13% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | June 16–20, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | May 12–18, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 45% | 49% | 6% |
- Kamala Harris vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard/Harris | January 18–19, 2023 | 2,050 (RV) | – | 40% | 43% | 17% |
| Harvard/Harris | December 14–15, 2022 | 1,851 (RV) | – | 40% | 45% | 15% |
| Harvard/Harris | November 16–17, 2022 | 2,212 (RV) | – | 39% | 42% | 19% |
| 2022 midterm elections | ||||||
| Harvard/Harris | September 7–8, 2022 | 1,854 (RV) | – | 41% | 38% | 21% |
| Harvard/Harris | July 27–28, 2022 | 1,885 (RV) | – | 41% | 40% | 19% |
| Echelon Insights | July 15–18, 2022 | 1,022 (LV) | – | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Harvard/Harris | June 28–29, 2022 | 1,308 (RV) | – | 39% | 37% | 23% |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | June 24–27, 2022 | 1,239 (RV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Harvard/Harris | May 18–19, 2022 | 1,963 (RV) | – | 41% | 38% | 20% |
| Harvard/Harris | April 20–21, 2022 | 1,966 (RV) | – | 42% | 38% | 20% |
| Harvard/Harris | March 23–24, 2022 | 1,990 (RV) | – | 40% | 38% | 22% |
| Harvard/Harris | February 23–24, 2022 | 2,026 (RV) | – | 41% | 39% | 20% |
| Harvard/Harris | January 19–20, 2022 | 1,815 (RV) | – | 39% | 40% | 21% |
| Harvard/Harris | November 30 – December 2, 2021 | 1,989 (RV) | – | 42% | 37% | 21% |
| Harvard/Harris | October 26–28, 2021 | 1,578 (RV) | – | 40% | 42% | 18% |
| Echelon Insights | April 16–23, 2021 | 1,043 (RV) | – | 43% | 31% | 26% |
- Kamala Harris vs. Mike Pence
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Mike Pence Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon Insights | June 18–22, 2021 | 1,001 (RV) | – | 45% | 36% | 19% |
- Kamala Harris vs. Mike Pompeo
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Mike Pompeo Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard/Harris | October 26–28, 2021 | 1,578 (RV) | – | 41% | 41% | 18% |
- Kamala Harris vs. Tim Scott
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Tim Scott Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard/Harris | October 26–28, 2021 | 1,578 (RV) | – | 39% | 42% | 19% |
- Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Pete Buttigieg Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates | April 22–26, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 39% | 49% | 12% |
| Harvard/Harris | November 30 – December 2, 2021 | 1,989 (RV) | – | 37% | 48% | 15% |
- Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates | March 17–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 41% | 51% | 8% |
| Schoen Cooperman Research | March 2–6, 2022 | 800 (LV) | – | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | February 16–22, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 43% | 50% | 7% |
| Echelon Insights | January 21–23, 2022 | 1,098 (RV) | – | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| McLaughlin & Associates | January 13–18, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 41% | 51% | 8% |
- Bernie Sanders vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Bernie Sanders Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | July 19–20, 2022 | 1,078 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 40% | 45% | 15% |
| Morning Consult | April 22–25, 2022 | 2,004 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
- Phil Murphy vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Phil Murphy Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates | April 22–26, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 33% | 49% | 18% |
- Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/Yahoo News | June 24–27, 2022 | 1,239 (RV) | – | 45% | 43% | 12% |
- Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/Rose Institute | October 11–26, 2022 | 5,050 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 51% | – |
| YouGov/Yahoo News | June 24–27, 2022 | 1,239 (RV) | – | 43% | 42% | 15% |
- Jerome Segal vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date | Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Jerome Segal Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies | October 5, 2022 | 1,006 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 40% | 39% | 21% |
Timeline
See also
Notes
- ^ Under the 22nd Amendment, incumbent (and former) presidents since 1951 have been ineligible for re-election after two elected terms (or one elected term and more than half of another term).
- ^ Some erroneously claim that the 1968 election is the most recent in which the incumbent president did not seek re-election. In fact, then-president Lyndon B. Johnson did briefly run for re-election, although he dropped out after only narrowly winning the first primary in New Hampshire.[34] A similar situation unfolded in 1952, when Harry Truman also contested the New Hampshire primary, losing it to Estes Kefauver and suspending his campaign as a result. In comparison, then-president Calvin Coolidge did not mount any kind of re-election campaign in 1928, thus making the 1928 race the most recent in which the incumbent president chose to retire.
- ^ a b Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Archived January 28, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Archived November 20, 2021, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Archived January 28, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
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