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2012 United States Senate election in Arizona Turnout 52.9% (voting eligible)[1]
County Results
Flake: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70%
Carmona: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80%
The 2012 United States Senate election in Arizona was held November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election , other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Jon Kyl , the Senate Minority Whip, decided to retire instead of running for reelection to a fourth term.[2] Republican U.S. Representative Jeff Flake won the open seat.
Republican primary
The filing deadline for Republican candidates was June 1, 2012, and the primary election took place on August 28, 2012.
Candidates
Declared
Wil Cardon, CEO of a real estate investment firm[3] [4]
Jeff Flake , U.S. Representative from the 6th district[5]
Bryan Hackbarth, former Mayor of Youngtown [6]
Clair Van Steenwyk, conservative radio host[7]
Withdrew
Doug McKee, businessman[8]
Declined
Endorsements
Polling
Results
Democratic primary
Former Surgeon General Richard Carmona was the only candidate for the Democratic nomination, receiving all 289,881 votes cast in the primary election.[21]
Candidates
Declared
Withdrew
Declined
Polling
Hypothetical polling
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Dennis Burke
Rodney Glassman
Terry Goddard
Phil Gordan
Harry Mitchell
Ed Pastor
Felecia Rotellini
Other/ Undecided
Public Policy Polling
April 28 – May 1, 2011
300
± 5.7%
2%
5%
50%
8%
11%
5%
6%
14%
Results
General election
Candidates
Jeff Flake (Republican), U.S. Representative
Richard Carmona (Democratic), former U.S. Surgeon General
Michael F. Meyer (Independent)
Marc J. Victor (Libertarian), attorney
Debates
There were three debates before the election. The first was in Phoenix on October 10, 2012, the second in Tucson on October 15 and the last was in Yuma on October 25.
External links
Fundraising
Candidate (party)
Receipts
Disbursements
Cash on hand
Debt
Jeff Flake (R)
$9,026,951
$9,557,420
$97,360
$0
Richard Carmona (D)
$6,459,739
$6,373,544
$86,195
$0
Marc J. Victor (L)
$8,336
$8,334
$0
$0
Source: Federal Election Commission [35] [36] [37] [38] [39]
Top contributors
Richard Carmona
Contribution
Jeff Flake
Contribution
University of Arizona
$54,100
Club for Growth
$1,000,112
League of Conservation Voters
$53,148
Senate Conservatives Fund
$176,484
Canyon Ranch
$31,400
US Airways
$54,300
Clorox Company
$25,000
Freeport-McMoRan
$53,750
Arizona State University
$22,600
Cancer Treatment Centers of America
$40,500
Banner Health
$18,500
Knight Transportation
$35,500
Lewis and Roca
$17,100
Pinnacle West Capital
$35,500
Taser International
$15,500
Marriott International
$29,750
Coca-Cola Co
$15,286
Shamrock Farms
$24,750
Pederson Group
$15,000
Services Group of America
$15,650
Source: Center for Responsive Politics [40]
Top industries
Richard Carmona
Contribution
Jeff Flake
Contribution
Ian Gilyeat
Contribution
Retired
$653,066
Republican/Conservative
$1,146,046
Retired
$250
Lawyers /Law Firms
$409,395
Retired
$643,260
Lawyers/Law Firms
$250
Health Professionals
$313,135
Leadership PACs
$502,352
Leadership PACs
$279,530
Real Estate
$302,572
Colleges /Universities
$189,270
Financial Institutions
$279,670
Real Estate
$145,000
Lawyers/Law Firms
$200,702
Business Services
$122,749
Misc Finance
$188,122
Financial Institutions
$118,500
Mining
$170,602
Democratic/Liberal
$111,889
Health Professionals
$164,607
Lobbyists
$105,172
Oil & Gas
$147,860
Source: Center for Responsive Politics [41]
Predictions
Polling
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Jeff Flake (R)
Richard Carmona (D)
Other
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
November 2–3, 2012
1,080
± 3%
51%
46%
—
3%
Rasmussen Reports
October 21, 2012
500
± 4.5%
50%
44%
3%
3%
Rocky Mountain Poll
October 4–10, 2012
523
± 4.4%
40%
44%
—
16%
Public Policy Polling
October 1–3, 2012
595
± 4%
43%
45%
—
12%
HighGround/Moore
September 25–26, 2012
500
± 4%
43%
40%
5%
11%
Rasmussen Reports
September 25, 2012
500
± 4.5%
47%
41%
3%
9%
LCV/Public Policy Polling
September 7–9, 2012
993
± n/a%
44%
43%
—
13%
LCV/Public Policy Polling
July 23–25, 2012
833
± 3.4%
38%
38%
—
25%
Rasmussen Reports
June 26, 2012
500
± 4.5%
47%
31%
5%
17%
Public Policy Polling
June 4–5, 2012
791
± 3.5%
43%
41%
—
16%
Public Policy Polling
May 17–20, 2012
500
± 4.4%
48%
35%
—
17%
Magellan Strategies
April 30 – May 2, 2012
909
± 3.3%
44%
40%
—
16%
Rasmussen Reports
March 13, 2012
500
± 4.5%
47%
34%
4%
16%
NBC News/Marist
February 19–20, 2012
2,487
± 2.0%
42%
29%
—
28%
Public Policy Polling
February 17–19, 2012
743
± 3.6%
46%
35%
—
19%
Public Policy Polling
November 17–20, 2011
500
± 4.4%
40%
36%
—
24%
Hypothetical polling
Republican primary
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Jeff Flake
J.D. Hayworth
Sarah Palin
Gary Pierce
Marilyn Quayle
Fife Symington
Other/ Undecided
Public Policy Polling
April 28 – May 1, 2011
400
± 4.9%
33%
11%
35%
3%
2%
3%
13%
Democratic primary
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Dennis Burke
Gabrielle Giffords
Rodney Glassman
Terry Goddard
Phil Gordan
Harry Mitchell
Ed Pastor
Felecia Rotellini
Other/ Undecided
Public Policy Polling
April 28 – May 1, 2011
300
± 5.7%
2%
46%
4%
28%
2%
5%
4%
2%
6%
with Don Bivens
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Wil Cardon (R)
Don Bivens (D)
Other
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
November 17–20, 2011
500
± 4.4%
35%
27%
—
37%
Public Policy Polling
February 17–19, 2012
743
± 3.6%
38%
32%
—
31%
Rasmussen Reports
March 13, 2012
500
± 4.5%
42%
30%
4%
24%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Jeff Flake (R)
Don Bivens (D)
Other
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
November 17–20, 2011
500
± 4.4%
42%
32%
—
26%
Public Policy Polling
February 17–19, 2012
743
± 3.6%
46%
35%
—
19%
Rasmussen Reports
March 13, 2012
500
± 4.5%
47%
30%
3%
20%
with J.D. Hayworth
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
J.D. Hayworth (R)
Gabrielle Giffords (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
April 28 – May 1, 2011
623
± 3.9%
31%
57%
12%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
J.D. Hayworth (R)
Terry Goddard (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
April 28 – May 1, 2011
623
± 3.9%
33%
51%
16%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
J.D. Hayworth (R)
Phil Gordon (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
April 28 – May 1, 2011
623
± 3.9%
36%
44%
20%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
J.D. Hayworth (R)
Ed Pastor (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
April 28 – May 1, 2011
623
± 3.9%
37%
42%
21%
with Jeff Flake
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Jeff Flake (R)
Gabrielle Giffords (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
April 28 – May 1, 2011
623
± 3.9%
41%
48%
11%
with Jon Kyl
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Jon Kyl (R)
Terry Goddard (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
January 28–30, 2011
599
± 4.0%
50%
40%
9%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Jon Kyl (R)
Phil Gordon (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
January 28–30, 2011
599
± 4.0%
54%
33%
13%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Jon Kyl (R)
Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
January 28–30, 2011
599
± 4.0%
51%
35%
14%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Jon Kyl (R)
Janet Napolitano (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
January 28–30, 2011
599
± 4.0%
53%
41%
6%
with Sarah Palin
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Sarah Palin (R)
Gabrielle Giffords (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
April 28 – May 1, 2011
623
± 3.9%
36%
54%
10%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Sarah Palin (R)
Terry Goddard (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
April 28 – May 1, 2011
623
± 3.9%
40%
49%
11%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Sarah Palin (R)
Phil Gordon (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
April 28 – May 1, 2011
623
± 3.9%
41%
45%
13%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size
Margin of error
Sarah Palin (R)
Ed Pastor (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling
April 28 – May 1, 2011
623
± 3.9%
43%
45%
12%
Results
Preliminary results showed Flake leading 49.7%-45.7%, but 439,961 early votes had yet to be counted.
See also
References
^ Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates" . George Mason University . Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 3, 2013 .
^ Catanese, David; Epstein, Jennifer (February 10, 2011). "Sen. Jon Kyl announces his retirement from Senate" . Politico . Retrieved February 10, 2011 .
^ Catanese, David; Scott Wong (August 5, 2011). "Self funder to primary Jeff Flake" . Politico . Retrieved August 8, 2011 .
^ Trygstad, Kyle (August 8, 2011). "Flake Draws Wealthy GOP Primary Opponent" . Roll Call . Retrieved August 8, 2011 .
^ "Jeff Flake announces he'll run for Kyl seat" . Associated Press. February 14, 2011. Retrieved February 14, 2011 .
^ "Paid for by Bryan Hackbarth for United States Senate" . brian4senate.com . Retrieved April 12, 2018 .
^ Nowicki, Dan (October 16, 2011). "Senate hopefuls' fundraising revealed for 3rd quarter" . The Arizona Republic . Retrieved October 26, 2011 .
^ "Local man launches U.S. Senate campaign" . Mohave Valley Daily News . June 3, 2011. Retrieved June 6, 2011 .
^ Burns, Alexander (February 10, 2011). "Fife eyes Senate, floats NFL star Kurt Warner" . Politico . Retrieved February 10, 2011 .
^ "Battling DOJ, Arpaio to run again" . politico.com . Retrieved April 12, 2018 .
^ Sullivan, Sean (February 11, 2011). "Brewer Won't Run for Kyl's Seat" . National Journal . Archived from the original on March 19, 2011. Retrieved February 11, 2011 .
^ Sullivan, Sean (April 1, 2011). "Franks not running for Senate in Arizona" . National Journal . Archived from the original on May 15, 2011. Retrieved April 1, 2011 .
^ King, James (April 28, 2011). "Rumor Mill: J.D. Hayworth Will NOT Run For Senate -- Again" . Phoenix New Times . Retrieved November 15, 2011 .
^ Drucker, David M. (February 12, 2011). "Early, Long Whip Race Will Test GOP Cohesion" . Roll Call . Retrieved February 13, 2011 .
^ Bedard, Paul (February 11, 2011). "Ben Quayle Staying Put in House" . U.S. News & World Report . Retrieved February 13, 2011 .
^ Bodfield, Rhonda; Kelly, Andrea (February 13, 2011). "With Kyl leaving, we at least know some who won't be seeking his seat" . Arizona Daily Star . Retrieved February 13, 2011 .
^ Sunnucks, Mike (February 11, 2011). "Shadegg won't run for Kyl's Senate seat, Trent Franks looking at run" . Phoenix Business Journal . Retrieved February 11, 2011 .
^ Trygstad, Kyle; Trygstad, Kyle (April 30, 2012). "Arizona: Jim DeMint Endorses Jeff Flake in Senate Primary" . Roll Call . Retrieved April 12, 2018 .
^ "GOProud Announces U.S. House Endorsements - GOProud, Inc" . October 25, 2012. Archived from the original on October 25, 2012. Retrieved April 12, 2018 .
^ a b "Official Election Canvass of Results" (PDF) . Arizona Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 12, 2013. Retrieved September 3, 2014 .
^ "Archived copy" (PDF) . Archived from the original (PDF) on November 12, 2013. Retrieved January 6, 2014 .{{cite web }}
: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link )
^ Sullivan, Sean (November 10, 2011). "Carmona Will Run in Arizona" . National Journal . Archived from the original on November 12, 2011. Retrieved November 10, 2011 .
^ Livingston, Abby; Livingston, Abby (March 28, 2012). "Arizona: Bivens Drops Out, Democratic Field Clears" . Roll Call . Retrieved April 12, 2018 .
^ Sanders, Rebekah (May 21, 2012). "U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake files signatures for primary" . The Arizona Republic. Retrieved May 24, 2012 .
^ McCombs, Brady (June 9, 2012). "Democrat Ruben ends US Senate campaign" . Arizona Daily Star . Retrieved June 16, 2012 .
^ Haque, Fahima (February 11, 2011). "Arizona U.S. Attorney for Senate?" . Main Justice . Archived from the original on August 16, 2011. Retrieved February 14, 2011 .
^ Cillizza, Chris (February 10, 2011). "Gabrielle Giffords was planning possible Senate run before shooting" . WashingtonPost.com . Retrieved February 10, 2011 .
^ Sunnucks, Mike (February 10, 2011). "Phoenix mayor ponders a run for Kyl's seat; Luis Gonzalez not interested" . Phoenix Business Journal . Retrieved February 10, 2011 .
^ Miller, Sean J. (March 2, 2011). "Arizona Democrat considering Senate run in absence of Rep. Giffords" . The Hill . Retrieved July 23, 2011 .
^ Nowicki, Dan (November 20, 2011). "Arizona civil-rights leader weighs Senate run" . The Arizona Republic . Retrieved November 21, 2011 .
^ [1] Archived January 31, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
^ "Mark Kelly: I'm not running for office - Jennifer Epstein" . Politico.Com. Retrieved July 11, 2011 .
^ King, James (February 18, 2011). "Janet Napolitano No-Go on Senate Run; Wants to Focus on Border Security" . Phoenix New Times . Retrieved February 18, 2011 .
^ Nowicki, Dan (February 16, 2011). "Pederson won't run for Kyl's Senate seat" . The Arizona Republic . Retrieved February 16, 2011 .
^ "Carmona Campaign Finances" . fec.gov . Retrieved April 12, 2018 .[permanent dead link ]
^ "Flake Campaign Finances" . fec.gov . Retrieved April 12, 2018 .[permanent dead link ]
^ NW, The Center for Responsive Politics 1300 L. St; Washington, Suite 200; fax857-7809, DC 20005 telelphone857-0044. "Kansas District 04 2012 Race" . OpenSecrets . Retrieved April 12, 2018 . {{cite web }}
: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link )
^ "Victor Campaign Finances" . fec.gov . Retrieved April 12, 2018 .[permanent dead link ]
^ "Meyer Campaign Finances" . fec.gov . Retrieved April 12, 2018 .[permanent dead link ]
^ Center for Responsive Politics . "Top Contributors 2012 Race: Arizona Senate" . opensecrets.org.
^ Center for Responsive Politics . "Top Industries 2012 Race: Arizona Senate" . opensecrets.org.
^ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012" . The Cook Political Report . Retrieved September 20, 2018 .
^ "2012 Senate" . Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved September 20, 2018 .
^ "2012 Senate Ratings" . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018 .
^ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012" . Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018 .
^ https://apps.azsos.gov/election/2012/General/Canvass2012GE.pdf
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