2018 Irish presidential election

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2018 Irish presidential election
← 2011 26 October 2018 2025 →
Turnout43.9%[1]
 
Nominee Michael D. Higgins Peter Casey Seán Gallagher
Party Independent Independent Independent
1st preference 822,566 (55.8%) 342,727 (23.3%) 94,514 (6.4%)
 
Nominee Liadh Ní Riada Joan Freeman Gavin Duffy
Party Sinn Féin Independent Independent
1st preference 93,987 (6.4%) 87,908 (6.0%) 32,198 (2.2%)
President before election

Michael D. Higgins
Independent

Elected President

Michael D. Higgins
Independent

The 2018 Irish presidential election took place on Friday, 26 October, between 7.00 a.m. and 10.00 p.m.[2] President Michael D. Higgins, who was elected in 2011, was seeking re-election.[3] This was the first time since the 1966 election that an incumbent president faced a contest for a second term. Higgins was re-elected on the first count with nearly 56% of the vote, becoming the first president since de Valera to win a second term in a contested election (Patrick Hillery (1983) and Mary McAleese (2004) had been re-elected unopposed.)[4] He was inaugurated for his second term on 11 November.

The election was held on the same date as a referendum on blasphemy.[5]

Procedure

Main article: Irish presidential election

To stand for election as president, candidates must:

  • be a citizen of Ireland
  • be at least 35 years of age
  • be nominated by:
    • at least twenty of the 218 serving members of the Houses of the Oireachtas (parliament), or
    • at least four of the 31 county or city councils, or
    • themselves, in the case of a former or retiring president who has served one term.

If a member of the Oireachtas or a County or City council nominate more than one candidate, only the first nomination paper received from them will be deemed valid.[6] Presidential elections are conducted in line with Article 12 of the Constitution[7] and under the Presidential Elections Act 1993, as amended.[6] The President of Ireland is elected through proportional representation - single transferable vote.[8] All Irish citizens entered on the current electoral register are eligible to vote.[7] Under the Electoral (Amendment) Act 2011, there is a spending limit by each candidate of €750,000. Candidates who are elected or who reach 12.5% of the vote on their elimination are entitled to a reimbursement of expenses up to €200,000.[9]

Nomination process

On 28 August the Minister for Housing, Planning and Local Government, Eoghan Murphy, signed the order for the presidential election, specifying the nomination period as between 10 a.m. on 30 August and 12 noon on 26 September 2018.[2]

On 10 July 2018, incumbent president Michael D. Higgins declared that he would exercise his right to nominate himself as a candidate for the presidential election.[10][11][3] Higgins had said in 2011 that he intended to serve one term only, but changed his mind over the course of his term.[12] Higgins's website and social media accounts became active on 17 September, having been dormant since his inauguration in November 2011.[13] He formally nominated himself on 24 September.[3]

Sinn Féin was the only party to select a candidate. With 28 Oireachtas members (22 TDs and six Senators), the party could nominate a candidate without the need for additional nominations from independents to reach the requirement of 20 Oireachtas members, as they had required in 2011. Nearly all other parties in the Oireachtas supported the re-election of Michael D. Higgins. People Before Profit declined to support any candidate in the election.[14] Independent TD Michael Fitzmaurice had tried to gather the support of other Independent TDs and Senators to support a candidate, but was unsuccessful. Nineteen were willing to be involved in his effort to find a candidate, one short of the twenty required to be nominated.[15] Eleven Oireachtas members signed a nomination form for Gemma O'Doherty, nine short of the required number.[16]

18 local authorities passed resolutions supporting a particular candidate, while the remaining 13 either passed no resolution or passed a resolution declining to nominate any candidate. Candidates needed the support of at least four local authorities to be a candidate in the election.

Name Occupation Resolutions Councils
Peter Casey Businessman 4 Clare,[17] Kerry,[18][19] Limerick,[18][20] Tipperary[18][21][22]
Gavin Duffy Businessman 4 Meath, Carlow, Wicklow, Waterford[23]
Joan Freeman Senator 4 Cork City,[17] Fingal,[24] Galway County,[18][25] Galway City[26]
Seán Gallagher Businessman 5 Roscommon,[18][25] Mayo,[18][25] Leitrim,[27] Wexford,[28] Cavan[29]
Gemma O'Doherty Journalist 1 Laois[30][31]
No candidate 13 Dublin City,[32] Dún Laoghaire–Rathdown,[33] Louth,[34] Kilkenny,[33] Monaghan,[33] Offaly,[33] South Dublin,[35] Westmeath,[33] Kildare,[30] Cork County, Donegal, Longford, Sligo

Others who had sought a nomination from local authorities were: Norma Burke,[32] William Delaney, Patrick Feeney, John Groarke, Patrick Melly, Marie Goretti Moylan, Sarah Louise Mulligan, Kevin Sharkey, James Smyth,[25] David Doucette,[36] and John O'Hare.[37] Sharkey withdrew his name from consideration during the nomination period, calling for the nomination of Gemma O'Doherty.[38] Senator Gerard Craughwell had said that he would seek the nomination if Higgins were otherwise to be unopposed.[39][40] However, in July he announced that he would not contest the presidential election, in light of Sinn Féin's decision to run a candidate.[41] He also cited the financial costs of running for the presidency as a factor in his decision not to contest the election.[42] Despite Fianna Fáil support for the incumbent Michael D. Higgins, a few of the party's Councillors urged the leadership to nominate Galway West TD Éamon Ó Cuív, but he declined to allow his name to proceed as he would risk his party membership.[43]

Candidates

Six candidates contested the presidential election, having been selected by their parties or having received sufficient council nominations.

Debates

Irish presidential election debates, 2018
Date Broadcaster Moderator Participants
 P  Participant    A  Absent invitee   Casey Duffy Freeman Gallagher Higgins Ní Riada
27 September[52] RTÉ Radio 1 Áine Lawlor P P P A[a] A[a] P
13 October[53] RTÉ Radio 1 Cormac Ó hEadhra P P P P P P
15 October[54] RTÉ One TV Claire Byrne P P P A[a] A[a] P
17 October[54] Virgin Media One Pat Kenny P P P P P P
23 October[54] RTÉ One TV David McCullagh P P P P P P
24 October[54] Virgin Media One Matt Cooper / Ivan Yates P P P P A P
  1. ^ a b c d Higgins did not participate due to scheduling conflicts, and Gallagher did not participate because Higgins did not take part.

Opinion and exit polling

Last date
of polling 		Polling firm / Commissioner Casey Duffy Freeman Gallagher Higgins Ní Riada
style="background:Template:Independents/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Independents/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Independents/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Independents/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Independents/meta/color;"| style="background:Template:Sinn Féin/meta/color;"|
24 August 2018 Ireland Thinks/Irish Daily Mail[55] [a] 10% 3% 11% bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"|65% 11%[b]
16 September 2018 RED C/The Sunday Business Post[56] 1% 6% 3% 15% bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"|67% 7%[b]
10 October 2018 Red C/Paddy Power[57] 1% 4% 6% 14% bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"|70% 5%
12 October 2018 Ipsos MRBI/The Irish Times[58] 2% 4% 5% 12% bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"|66% 11%
16 October 2018 Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[59] 2% 4% 6% 11% bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"|69% 7%
Exit polls
26 October 2018 Red C/RTÉ[60] 20.7% 2.0% 6.3% 5.5% bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"|58.1% 7.4%
26 October 2018 Ipsos MRBI/The Irish Times[61] 21% 2% 6% 7% bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"|56% 8%
  1. ^ Poll conducted before Casey's candidacy was announced.
  2. ^ a b Figure for "Sinn Féin candidate". Poll conducted before Ní Riada's candidacy was announced.

Result

The count began at 09:00 on Saturday 27 October.

2018 Irish presidential election[62]
Candidate Nominated by % 1st Pref Count 1
Michael D. Higgins Himself as incumbent president 55.81 822,566
Peter Casey County and City Councils 23.25 342,727
Seán Gallagher County and City Councils 6.41 94,514
Liadh Ní Riada Oireachtas: Sinn Féin 6.38 93,987
Joan Freeman County and City Councils 5.96 87,908
Gavin Duffy County and City Councils 2.18 32,198
Electorate: 3,401,681   Valid: 1,473,900   Spoilt: 18,438   Quota: 736,951   Turnout: 1,492,338 (43.9%)
First preference vote
Higgins
 
 55.8%
Casey
 
 23.3%
Gallagher
 
 6.4%
Ní Riada
 
 6.4%
Freeman
 
 6.0%
Duffy
 
 2.2%

Constituency results

First preference votes by constituency[63]
Constituency Higgins Casey Gallagher Ní Riada Freeman Duffy
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Carlow–Kilkenny bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 25,717 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 52.0% 13,929 28.2% 3,506 7.1% 2,419 4.9% 2,636 5.3% 1,265 2.6%
Cavan–Monaghan bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 16,749 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 44.3% 7,023 18.6% 6,771 17.9% 4,167 11.0% 2,063 5.5% 1,000 2.6%
Clare bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 22,639 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 54.7% 11,722 28.3% 2,289 5.5% 2,186 5.3% 1,969 4.8% 617 1.5%
Cork East bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 20,388 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 53.6% 9,340 24.5% 2,625 6.9% 2,705 7.1% 2,283 6.0% 716 1.9%
Cork North-Central bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 18,851 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 54.0% 8,382 24.0% 1,977 5.7% 3,112 8.9% 2,010 5.8% 545 1.6%
Cork North-West bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 17,638 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 51.5% 8,092 23.6% 3,199 9.3% 2,824 8.2% 1,855 5.4% 630 1.8%
Cork South-Central bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 24,161 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 60.5% 7,323 18.3% 2,164 5.4% 3,072 7.7% 2,554 6.4% 642 1.6%
Cork South-West bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 16,860 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 55.1% 6,582 21.5% 2,374 7.8% 2,489 8.1% 1,635 5.3% 680 2.2%
Donegal bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 15,052 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 38.1% 12,952 32.8% 3,684 9.3% 4,524 11.4% 2,563 6.5% 747 1.9%
Dublin Bay South bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 20,765 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 71.5% 3,433 11.8% 1,116 3.8% 1,221 4.2% 1,884 6.5% 626 2.2%
Dublin Bay North bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 32,198 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 63.9% 8,009 15.9% 2,500 5.0% 3,315 6.6% 3,372 6.7% 1,010 2.0%
Dublin Central bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 10,094 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 66.7% 1,692 11.2% 529 3.5% 1,749 11.6% 868 5.7% 203 1.3%
Dublin Fingal bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 27,039 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 63.1% 7,505 17.5% 2,369 5.5% 2,290 5.3% 2,643 6.2% 986 2.3%
Dublin Mid-West bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 17,196 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 59.3% 5,128 17.7% 1,433 4.9% 1,978 6.8% 2,734 9.4% 526 1.8%
Dublin North-West bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 14,728 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 62.6% 3,737 15.9% 1,121 4.8% 1,932 8.2% 1,546 6.6% 451 1.9%
Dublin Rathdown bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 21,704 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 68.7% 4,385 13.9% 1,487 4.7% 1,141 3.6% 2,177 6.9% 711 2.2%
Dublin South-Central bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 17,930 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 65.0% 3,794 13.8% 1,105 4.0% 2,282 8.3% 2,039 7.4% 441 1.6%
Dublin South-West bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 28,151 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 62.2% 8,324 18.4% 2,237 4.9% 2,584 5.7% 3,011 6.7% 929 2.1%
Dublin West bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 17,545 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 62.1% 4,887 17.3% 1,430 5.1% 1,842 6.5% 2,053 7.3% 514 1.8%
Dún Laoghaire bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 31,513 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"|70.2% 5,872 13.1% 2,044 4.6% 1,596 3.6% 2,866 6.4% 1,000 2.2%
Galway East bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color" | 18,011 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color" | 53.4% 11,227 33.3% 1,379 4.1% 1,029 3.1% 1,545 4.6% 516 1.5%
Galway West bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 29,612 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 62.4% 10,821 22.8% 1,783 3.8% 2,161 4.6% 2,445 5.1% 660 1.4%
Kerry bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"|25,078 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"|50.1% 13,752 27.5% 2,856 5.7% 4,253 8.5% 3,102 6.2% 1,037 2.1%
Kildare North bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 23,103 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 61.3% 7,210 19.1% 2,258 6.0% 1,523 4.0% 2,751 7.3% 844 2.2%
Kildare South bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 14,766 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 56.9% 5,819 22.4% 1,829 7.0% 1,307 5.0% 1,619 6.2% 633 2.4%
Laois bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 13,754 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 49.8% 8,419 30.5% 1,845 6.7% 1,443 5.2% 1,464 5.3% 718 2.6%
Limerick County bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 15,262 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 48.1% 10,865 34.2% 1,756 5.5% 1,438 4.5% 1,762 5.6% 658 2.1%
Limerick City bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 18,904 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 57.7% 7,845 23.9% 1,557 4.8% 1,964 6.0% 1,917 5.9% 578 1.8%
Longford–Westmeath bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 18,024 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 47.5% 12,005 31.6% 2,873 7.6% 2,089 5.5% 2,122 5.6% 829 2.2%
Louth bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 26,291 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 58.4% 7,223 16.0% 2,934 6.5% 4,175 9.3% 2,291 5.1% 2,101 4.7%
Mayo bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 20,642 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 49.8% 12,850 31.0% 2,235 5.4% 2,107 5.1% 2,663 6.4% 937 2.3%
Meath East bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 16,754 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 56.7% 6,064 20.5% 2,060 7.0% 1,654 5.6% 1,883 6.4% 1,142 3.9%
Meath West bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 14,522 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 54.1% 5,917 22.0% 1,943 7.2% 1,847 6.9% 1,727 6.4% 904 3.4%
Offaly bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 13,977 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 47.0% 9,253 31.1% 2,672 9.0% 1,444 4.9% 1,691 5.7% 673 2.3%
Roscommon–Galway bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 14,246 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 45.1% 10,918 34.5% 2,270 7.2% 1,617 5.1% 1,850 5.9% 713 2.3%
Sligo–Leitrim bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 20,601 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 49.1% 11,132 26.5% 3,749 8.9% 3,172 7.6% 2,475 5.9% 859 2.0%
Tipperary bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 24,917 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 45.5% 20,149 36.8% 3,077 5.6% 2,827 5.2% 2,723 5.0% 1,106 2.0%
Waterford bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 18,609 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 52.2% 8,822 24.7% 2,530 7.1% 2,837 8.0% 2,025 5.7% 847 2.4%
Wexford bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 27,020 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 55.5% 11,818 24.3% 3,499 7.2% 2,939 6.0% 2,272 4.7% 1,161 2.4%
Wicklow bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 31,555 bgcolor="Template:Independent politician/meta/color"| 63.0% 8,507 17.0% 3,449 6.9% 2,733 5.5% 2,820 5.6% 1,043 2.1%
Total 822,566 55.8% 342,727 23.3% 94,514 6.4% 93,987 6.4% 87,908 6.0% 32,198 2.2%

Analysis

The Irish Times's analysis of its exit poll data said that Michael D. Higgins seemed on course to be comfortably re-elected on the first count, after leading in the opinion polls throughout the campaign, despite "considerable criticism over his use of the Government jet, expensive hotel accommodation on overseas visits and the lack of transparency over how an annual €300,000 allowance for his office was spent".[61] It attributed the expected low turnout to "a lack of public enthusiasm for the contest that was evident throughout the campaign".[61]

It ascribed Peter Casey's second place to a late surge of support following his criticisms of Travellers and his claim that Ireland had "a growing culture of welfare dependency", and it added that at some polling stations pollsters reported that "he was attracting as many voters as Mr Higgins".[61] It said that Seán Gallagher appeared to be down 22% on his 2011 figure of 29%, but that the biggest disappointment would probably be for Sinn Féin, whose candidate Liadh Ní Riada's expected 8% was well down on its general election result, and only a third of the party's support in the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI Opinion poll.[61] It described Senator Joan Freeman's expected performance as "just 6 per cent of the vote", and Gavin Duffy's expected result as him having "flopped completely, ending a miserable campaign with just 2 per cent of the vote".[61]

When analysing the Red C/RTÉ exit poll,[60] RTÉ Political Correspondent Martina Fitzgerald said that the data showed that President Higgins was very popular among voters regardless of age and gender but was particularly popular among women and younger votes despite the debate about his age, which most voters saw as irrelevant. The most important factor cited by voters was the candidates' track record and expertise, while the finances and salary of the president were the least important factor.[64]

Fitzgerald added that "the real political story" was that the result was "a disastrous election" for Sinn Féin, and "a serious blow" for which party leader Mary Lou McDonald would have to take "full responsibility".[64] Fitzgerald also noted that the combined total of the three former Dragons Den judges (Casey, Gallagher, and Duffy) was very similar to Gallagher's vote in 2011, suggesting that vote had held up, but that Casey had taken most of it this time.[64]

References

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  2. ^ a b "Minister Murphy makes Presidential Election Order". Department of Housing, Planning and Local Government. 28 August 2018. Retrieved 28 August 2018.
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  56. ^ "Latest polls suggest President Higgins on course for landslide re-election". Irish Independent. 16 September 2018.
  57. ^ McMorrow, Conor (12 October 2018). "Poll suggests significant lead for Higgins". RTÉ News. Retrieved 12 October 2018.
  58. ^ "Higgins holds huge poll lead over all rivals". The Irish Times. 17 October 2018. Retrieved 17 October 2018.
  59. ^ "Higgins holding lead in race for Presidency, poll suggests". RTÉ News. 20 October 2018. Retrieved 20 October 2018.
  60. ^ a b "RTÉ exit poll suggests Higgins on course for re-election". RTÉ News. 26 October 2018. Retrieved 26 October 2018.
  61. ^ a b c d e f Pat Leahy, Political Editor (26 October 2018). "Michael D Higgins on course for decisive first-count victory as Peter Casey surges into second place". The Irish Times. Retrieved 26 October 2018. Opinion polls in the early part of the campaign estimated negligible support for Mr Casey. However, after his criticisms of Travellers, and his assertion that there was a growing culture of welfare dependency in Ireland, support appears to have surged towards Mr Casey in the final weeks of the campaign {{cite news}}: |author= has generic name (help)
  62. ^ "Higgins wins second term as Irish president". BBC News. 28 October 2018. Retrieved 29 October 2018.
  63. ^ "2018 results". Presidential Election returning officer. 27 October 2018. Archived from the original on 27 October 2018. Retrieved 27 October 2018.
  64. ^ a b c Martina Fitzgerald (27 October 2018). "Sinn Féin - the big story of the Presidential Election". RTÉ News. Retrieved 27 October 2018.

External links

Campaign websites

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