2024 United States presidential election in Idaho
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| Elections in Idaho |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Idaho is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Idaho voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Idaho has 4 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
Idaho is a sparsely-populated Mountain West state with an overwhelmingly-White population, with evangelicals and Mormons comprising a plurality, and thus a conservative stronghold. Since statehood, the only non-Republicans to win Idaho's electoral votes have been Populist James B. Weaver and Democrats William Jennings Bryan, Woodrow Wilson, FDR, Harry Truman, and landslide victor Lyndon B. Johnson. Idaho is a deeply red state, with no presidential Democratic candidate after LBJ's narrow 1964 win coming within 13 percentage points of winning the state. Republicans have occupied all statewide offices since 2007. Thus, Idaho is expected to be easily won by the Republicans in 2024.
Incumbent president Joe Biden has declared he is no longer running for a second term, and thus suspended his candidacy before the 2024 Democratic National Convention officially nominates a candidate.[2] He has endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for his replacement.[3]
Primary elections
[edit]The Idaho Legislature passed HB 138 during the 2023 legislative session, resulting in the elimination of the state-ran primary for all parties. The legislature did not restore the state-ran primary by the October 1 deadline, and both the major parties in the state opted to operate and fund firehouse nominations for president.[4]
Republican primary
[edit]The Idaho Republican primary was held on March 2, 2024, alongside primaries in Hawaii, Mississippi, Missouri, and Washington.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 33,603 | 84.89% | 32 | 0 | 32 |
| Nikki Haley | 5,221 | 13.18% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 534 | 1.35% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 95 | 0.24% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 91 | 0.23% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 40 | 0.10% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 39,584 | 100.00% | 32 | 0 | 32 |
Democratic caucuses
[edit]The Idaho Democratic presidential caucuses were held on May 23, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 2,297 | 95.2% | 23 | ||
| Marianne Williamson | 79 | 3.3% | |||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 14 | 0.6% | |||
| David Olscamp | 14 | 0.6% | |||
| Jason Palmer (withdrawn) | 5 | 0.2% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 3 | 0.1% | |||
| Total: | 2,412 | 100.0% | 23 | 4 | 27 |
General election
[edit]Candidates
[edit]The official list of certified candidates was finalized by Idaho secretary of state Phil McGrane on September 4, 2024, with the following nine candidates qualifying:[8]
- Kamala Harris / Tim Walz – Democratic
- Donald Trump / JD Vance – Republican
- Joel Skousen / Rik Combs – Constitution
- Chase Oliver / Mike ter Maat – Libertarian
- Shiva Ayyadurai / Crystal Ellis – independent
- Claudia De la Cruz / Karina Garcia – independent
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Nicole Shanahan – independent
- Jill Stein / Butch Ware – independent
- Randall Terry / Stephen Broden – independent
Despite Terry being the nominee of the national Constitution Party, the state party dissented and chose instead to nominate Joel Skousen on the state ballot. Terry instead petitioned to appear on the ballot as an independent candidate.[9]
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[10] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[11] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[13] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[14] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[15] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[16] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[17] | Solid R | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[18] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News[19] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||
| John Zogby Strategies[20][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 309 (LV) | – | 60% | 30% | 10% |
| Emerson College[21] | October 1–4, 2023 | 490 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 55% | 26% | 19% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[20][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 309 (LV) | – | 54% | 32% | 14% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[20][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 309 (LV) | – | 60% | 25% | 15% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | |||||
| Democratic | |||||
| Libertarian | |||||
| Green | |||||
| Constitution |
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| Socialism and Liberation |
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| Independent |
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| Independent | |||||
| Independent |
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| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | |||||
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Idaho
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ a b Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.
- ^ Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.
- ^ a b Randall Terry was nominated by the national Constitution Party, though the state party nominated Joel Skousen.
Partisan clients
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ "President Joe Biden drops out of 2024 presidential race". NBC News. July 21, 2024. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
- ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
- ^ Corbin, Clark (October 16, 2023). "Idaho will have a presidential caucus in 2024 — not a primary. Here's how they differ. • Idaho Capital Sun". Idaho Capital Sun. Retrieved July 15, 2024.
- ^ "Declared 2024 Republican Presidential Candidates". Idaho Republican Party. Retrieved December 8, 2023.[failed verification]
- ^ "Idaho primary results". Associated Press. March 2, 2024. Retrieved March 2, 2024.
- ^ "Idaho Democratic Caucus Results". NY Times. Retrieved May 23, 2024.
- ^ Corbin, Clark (September 4, 2024). "Nine presidential candidates qualify for Idaho's 2024 general election ballot". States Newsroom. Retrieved September 9, 2024.
- ^ Pruett, Greg (August 5, 2024). "Constitution Party of Idaho Holds Convention, Selects Presidential Nominee". Idaho Dispatch. Retrieved September 9, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 11, 2023). "Idaho 2024 Poll: Housing Affordability is a 'Big Problem' in the Gem State". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "Candidate List". VoteIdaho.Gov. September 6, 2024. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
