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2020 North Macedonian parliamentary election

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2020 North Macedonian parliamentary election
← 2016 15 July 2020 2024 →
All 120 seats in the Assembly of the Republic
61 seats needed for a majority
Turnout52.02% Decrease 14.77pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Zoran Zaev Hristijan Mickoski Ali Ahmeti
Party SDSM VMRO-DPMNE BDI
Alliance We Can Renewal –
Leader since 2013 2017 2002
Last election 54 seats, 45.0%[a] 51 seats, 39.4% 10 seats, 7.5%
Seats won 46 44 15
Seat change Decrease 8 Decrease 7 Increase 5
Popular vote 327,408 315,344 104,699
Percentage 35.89% 34.57% 11.48%
Swing Decrease 9.12pp Decrease 4.82pp Increase 3.96pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Ziadin Sela Dimitar Apasiev Menduh Thaçi
Party ASh Levica PDSh
Alliance ASh–Alternativa – –
Leader since 2016 2020 2007
Last election 3 seats, 3.0% 0 seats, 1.1% 2 seats, 2.7%
Seats won 12 2 1
Seat change Increase 9 Increase 2 Decrease 1
Popular vote 81,620 37,426 13,930
Percentage 8.95% 4.10% 1.53%
Swing Increase 5.91pp Increase 3.05pp Decrease 1.15pp
Winning party and seat distribution by constituency
  We Can   Renewal   DUI   ASh–Alternativa   PDSh   Levica
Prime Minister before election

Oliver Spasovski
SDSM

Prime Minister after election

Zoran Zaev
SDSM

Politics of North Macedonia
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flag North Macedonia portal

Early parliamentary elections were held in North Macedonia on 15 July 2020.[1] It was originally scheduled for November 2020, but Prime Minister Zoran Zaev called early elections after the European Council failed to come to an agreement on starting talks with North Macedonia on joining the European Union in October 2019. The election date was set for 12 April, but was postponed until July due to the COVID-19 pandemic in North Macedonia.[2]

Background

On 17 October 2019 the European Council did not give North Macedonia and Albania a date to start European Union membership negotiations, after it was opposed by French President Emmanuel Macron. The rejection was seen as a blow to Prime Minister Zoran Zaev's government in North Macedonia.[3] Previously, in February 2019 the country formally changed its name from Macedonia to North Macedonia to resolve a longstanding dispute with Greece that blocked it from joining the European Union and NATO,[4] after high level talks between Prime Minister Zaev and his Greek counterpart Alexis Tsipras throughout 2018 led to the Prespa Agreement signed on 17 June 2018.[5][6][7][8] In May 2019 the candidate from Zaev's SDSM party, Stevo Pendarovski, won in the presidential election in a run off vote.[9]

In response to the European Council's decision, it was announced by Zaev that early parliamentary elections would be held on 12 April 2020.[10][11][12][13] The date was chosen because it was expected North Macedonia would be a full member of NATO by then.[14] On 27 March 2020, North Macedonia officially joined NATO.

Electoral system

North Macedonia's six constituencies

Of the 123 seats in the Assembly of the Republic, 120 are elected from six 20-seat constituencies in North Macedonia using closed list proportional representation, with seats allocated using the d'Hondt method. The remaining three seats are elected by Macedonians living abroad,[15] but are only filled if the number of votes exceeds that of the elected candidate with the fewest votes in North Macedonia in the previous election. If a list crosses this threshold, it wins one seat; to win two seats, a list needs to win twice the number of votes, and to win three seats the threshold is three times the number of votes. These seats were not filled in the 2016 elections due to insufficient turnout.[16]

Campaign

Both Zaev's Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) and the right-wing opposition VMRO-DPMNE which opposes parts of the Prespa Agreement notably the name change to North Macedonia, began campaigning by early October 2019 as it seemed there would be a snap election. The SDSM campaign emphasised the party's role in the country's Euro-Atlantic integration, including resolving the dispute with Greece and securing NATO membership. The VMRO-DPMNE campaign opposes the name change and accused the government of corruption.[17]

We Can

SDSM-led "We Can" coalition also included the BESA, the VMRO–NP, the DPT, the New Social Democratic Party (NSDP), the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the Party for a European Future (PEI), the United Party for Roma Equality (OPER), the Party for the Movement of Turks in Macedonia (PDT), the Democratic Union of the Vlachs of Macedonia (DSVM), New Alternative (NA), the Party for Economic Changes 21 (PEP 21), the Party for Social and Economic Progress (POEN), the Democratic Union (DS), the Political Party “Dignity” (PPD), the Serbian Party in Macedonia (SSM), the Democratic League of Bosniaks, the Party of Pensioners (PP), the Party for Democratic Prosperity of the Roma (PDPR), Democratic Renewal of Macedonia (DOM), United for Macedonia (OM), the Party for the Full Emancipation of the Roma of Macedonia (CERRNM), and the Union of Roma in Macedonia.[18] SDSM-led coalition received endorsements from Jean Asselborn, the Foreign Minister of Luxembourg, as well as Michael Roth, who serves as German Deputy Minister for Europe,[19] Pedro Sánchez[20] (the Prime Minister of Spain), and Alexis Tsipras[21] (the former Prime Minister of Greece). The ALDE Party endorsed the Liberal Democratic Party,[22] and the European Green Party endorsed Democratic Renewal of Macedonia,[23] both of which are participating in the coalition.

Renewal

VMRO-DPMNE-led "Renewal" coalition also included Citizen Option for Macedonia (GROM), the Movement for Turkish National Union, the Democratic Party of Serbs in Macedonia, the Democratic Party of the Roma, the Democratic Forces of the Roma, Macedonian Action (MAAK), the New Liberal Party, the Party of the Vlachs of Macedonia (PVM), the Party of United Democrats of Macedonia, the United Party of the Roma in Macedonia, the Workers’ Agricultural Party of Macedonia, the Socialist Party of Macedonia, the Serbian Progressive Party, the Party of Democratic Action of Macedonia, the Union of Tito’s Left Forces, Roma Integration Party, and Democratic Bosniak Party, as well as the independent candidates Adnan Arsovski and Adnan Kahil. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has endorsed VMRO-DPMNE-led coalition.

Albanian parties

The Democratic Union for Integration (DUI), which is the largest Albanian party in N. Macedonia and has been part of most government coalitions since the 2002 elections, announced its candidacy early on. It campaigned under the stated goal of electing an ethnic Albanian Prime Minister of North Macedonia for the first time.[24] Its candidate for Prime Minister was Naser Ziberi, former Minister of Labour within SDSM-led government of North Macedonia.

On 19 February, the Alliance for Albanians (ASh) and Alternativa announced their own electoral coalition (ASA).[25] ASA stands in opposition to DUI and is headed by Ziadin Sela, former mayor of Struga.

On 27 February, SDSM and the BESA Movement, a social-democratic Albanian party announced that they would run together, this was the first time a Macedonian and an Albanian party agreed to form a pre-election coalition.[26]

The Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA/PDSh) is the smallest Albanian ethnic party in terms of electoral power that participated in the elections. Its president and electoral list carrier is Menduh Thaçi.

Conduct

Special provisions were made for 700 people who contracted COVID-19 or were in quarantine. Measures were taken to ensure that the elderly and prison inmates vote early to avoid potential exposure to the virus.[27] The head of the election commission, Oliver Derkoski, commented that the voting day passed calmly and only sporadic instances of irregularities were reported. Local electoral observation missions also expressed satisfaction at the conduct of the polls. Ljupco Nikolovski, the secretary-general of SDSM, commended the polls, saying "Today we had a calm, dignifying, and from health perspective, a safe day." A local observation mission criticized the lack of adequate mechanism for the disabled to vote.

However, the opposition Alliance for Albanians and Alternativa movements, both upholding the interests of the ethnic Albanian minority, accused the BDI (another Albanian minority party) and SDSM of committing fraud to win. North Macedonia's public prosecution also received multiple complaints on election day.[28]

VMRO-DPMNE vice president Vladimir Misajlovski said that the results of the elections did not reflect the reality on ground. He blamed bribery of voters and abuse of institutions by the SDSM party to secure re-election.[29]

When vote counting began, the electoral commission's website was down for one hour. Derkoski said that it was probably due to external hacker attacks, but did not hamper actual vote counting.[28] The unofficial results page also went down several times on and following election night.[citation needed]

International observers described the elections as "well-managed".[30] OSCE said that the elections were generally well-run and candidates could campaign freely, but legal stability was undermined by significant changes to electoral framework. They said that the authorities need to address the issues before next elections. According to OSCE, election day went smoothly, but challenges with voter registration remained. Media coverage also lacked critical assessment of party platforms.[31]

Opinion polls

Opinion polling for the 2020 North Macedonian parliamentary election
Pollster Date VMRO-DPMNE SDSM DUI Besa AA DPA Levica Alternativa LDP Integra Other Lead Abstention
M-Prospect 16–21 June 36.6 39.3 10.7 w/ SDSM 8.4 1.3 0.8 — w/ SDSM 1.7 1.2 2.7 —
NDI, TEAM, STARR 12–21 June 32.6 38.2 11.1 w/ SDSM 8.8 — — — w/ SDSM — 9.3 5.6 —
Market Vision 13–18 June 32.5 30.2 13.7 0.8 7.7 0.4 4.9 1.7 4.1 1.7 2.8 2.3 —
Kantar TNS Brima 5–14 June 27.8 34.4 15.1 4.8 9.0 1.1 2.2 — — 2.4 3.2 6.6 —
IPIS 2–5 June 40.3 36.4 10.8 w/ SDSM 7.7 1.7 2.4 — w/ SDSM — 0.7 3.9 —
STRATUM R&D 1–7 June 35.9 39.1 10.9 w/ SDSM 7.8 1.6 3.1 — w/ SDSM — 1.6 3.2 —
IFES 30 May–4 June 32.1 40.1 11.8 w/ SDSM 12.4 0.6 1.2 — — — — 8.0 —
2020
MCMS, Societas Civilis 15 Nov–1 Dec 20.4 22.1 6.6 1.5 2.6 0.9 1.7 0.8 — — 2 1.7 41.4
Market Vision 17–24 Sep 39.8 31.2 9.6 1.2 6.8 0.6 0.9 — — — 9.9 8.6 22.5
IPIS 14–17 Sep 42.6 36.6 9.1 1.4 5.7 — — 1.6 — — 3.0 6.0 —
Tim Institut 10–20 Jul 21.1 24.4 5.6 0.9 1.8 0.2 0.2 2 — — 1.1 3.3 42.7
2019
MCMS 7–11 Dec 21.6 26.9 7.4 2.5 3.1 — — — — — 2.8 5.3 35.7
Telma, MCMS 7–15 Nov 21.5 26.8 6.7 2.4 3 0.3 — — — — 2.6 5.3 36.7
Telma, MCMS 15–23 May 20.6 25.5 7.4 2 2.9 — 1.7 — — — 1.9 4.9 38
2018
Telma, MCMS 4–11 Sep 20.9 24.3 8.9 3.1 2.7 0.6 — — — — 1.6 3.4 37.9
2017
2016 election 11 December 2016 39.4 37.9 7.5 5.0 3.0 2.7 1.1 — w/ SDSM — 3.4 1.5 (33.2)

Results

The election resulted in an extremely divided parliament, with the pro-EU SDSM-led coalition winning a plurality of votes and seats. The nationalist conservative VMRO-DPMNE-led coalition came as a close second, lagging behind by only two seats and less than 1.5% of the vote. The BDI and the Alliance for Albanians–Alternativa coalition, both representing the ethnic Albanian minority, saw large gains. The Left, a socialist party, entered parliament for the first time with two seats, and the Democratic Party of Albanians lost one seat. Turnout was down roughly 15 percentage points mainly due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

PartyVotes%Seats+/–
We Can (SDSM and others)[b]327,40835.8946–8
Renewal (VMRO-DPMNE and others)[c]315,34434.5744–7
Democratic Union for Integration104,69911.4815+5
Alliance for Albanians–Alternativa81,6208.9512+9
The Left37,4264.102+2
Democratic Party of Albanians13,9301.531–1
Integra – Macedonian Conservative Party12,2911.350New
Civic Democratic Union3,5550.390New
MORO – Workers Party3,2450.3600
Voice for Macedonia2,8020.310New
Never North, Only Macedonia2,6040.2900
Social Democratic Union Skopje2,5850.2800
Your Party1,8940.210New
Democrats1,5580.170New
Roma People's Party1,2250.130New
Total912,186100.001200
Valid votes912,18696.66
Invalid/blank votes31,5643.34
Total votes943,750100.00
Registered voters/turnout1,814,26352.02
Source: State Election Commission

Aftermath

A coalition will need to be formed as neither of the two largest parties hold enough seats to form a majority on their own, and mathematically, any coalition will have to include at least one of the two largest Albanian minority parties. The BDI made its participation in any coalition contingent on the nominee for Prime Minister being an ethnic Albanian, which both the SDSM and VMRO-DPMNE have refused.[32][33][34] The BDI also had increased tensions with both the SDSM and the Alliance for Albanians coalition prior to and during the election, accusing the former of splitting the Albanian vote by allying with the Besa Movement,[35] and being accused by the latter of committing fraud.[36]

On 18 August, the SDSM and BDI announced that they had reached a deal on a coalition government as well as a compromise on the issue of an ethnic Albanian Prime Minister. Under the deal, SDSM leader Zoran Zaev will be installed as Prime Minister, and will serve in that position until no later than 100 days from the next parliamentary elections (Rotation government). At that time, the BDI will propose an ethnic Albanian candidate for Prime Minister, and if both parties agree on the candidate, that candidate will serve out the remaining term until the elections.[37][38] On 30 August, a coalition of the SDSM-aligned parties, BDI, and the Democratic Party of Albanians was approved by the parliament in a 62–51 vote.[39]

Notes

  1. ^ Aggregated results for the SDSM-led coalition (49 seats, 37.9%), Besa (5 seats, 5.0%), and VMRO–NP (0 seats, 2.1%).
  2. ^ Also includes the BESA, the VMRO–NP, the DPT, the New Social Democratic Party (NSDP), the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the Party for a European Future (PEI), the United Party for Roma Equality (OPER), the Party for the Movement of Turks in Macedonia (PDT), the Democratic Union of the Vlachs of Macedonia (DSVM), New Alternative (NA), the Party for Economic Changes 21 (PEP 21), the Party for Social and Economic Progress (POEN), the Democratic Union (DS), the Political Party “Dignity” (PPD), the Serbian Party in Macedonia (SSM), the Democratic League of Bosniaks, the Party of Pensioners (PP), the Party for Democratic Prosperity of the Roma (PDPR), Democratic Renewal of Macedonia (DOM), United for Macedonia (OM), the Party for the Full Emancipation of the Roma of Macedonia (CERRNM), and the Union of Roma in Macedonia
  3. ^ Includes Citizen Option for Macedonia (GROM), the Movement for Turkish National Union, the Democratic Party of Serbs in Macedonia, the Democratic Party of the Roma, the Democratic Forces of the Roma, Macedonian Action (MAAK), the New Liberal Party, the Party of the Vlachs of Macedonia (PVM), the Party of United Democrats of Macedonia, the United Party of the Roma in Macedonia, the Workers’ Agricultural Party of Macedonia, the Socialist Party of Macedonia, the Serbian Progressive Party, the Party of Democratic Action of Macedonia, the Union of Tito’s Left Forces, Roma Integration Party, and Democratic Bosniak Party, as well as the independent candidates Adnan Arsovski and Adnan Kahil

References

  1. ^ North Macedonia Leaders Agree Election Date Balkan Insight, 15 June 2020
  2. ^ Government of North Macedonia officially postpones the elections European Western Balkans, 23 March 2020
  3. ^ Marusic, Sinisa Jakov (17 October 2019). "European Council Fails to Reward North Macedonia, Albania". Balkan Insight.
  4. ^ "North Macedonia name change enters force". Deutsche Welle. 12 February 2019.
  5. ^ "Q & A on Prespa agreement". Влада на Република Северна Македонија (in Macedonian). 23 February 2019. Retrieved 18 June 2020.
  6. ^ "Greece and FYROM PMs to meet over 'Macedonia' name dispute". Neos Kosmos. Retrieved 24 January 2018.
  7. ^ "PMs to meet after 'Macedonia' name dispute rally in Greece". SBS News. 23 January 2018. Retrieved 24 January 2018.
  8. ^ "Tsipras and Zaev unblock Euro-integration process". Archived from the original on 25 January 2018. Retrieved 24 January 2018.
  9. ^ Sekularac, Ivana; Casule, Kole (4 May 2019). "North Macedonia's pro-Western candidate wins presidential vote". Reuters.
  10. ^ Marusic, Sinisa Jakov (21 October 2019). "Early Elections Test North Macedonia's Unity over EU Drive". Balkan Insight.
  11. ^ Debeuf, Koert (21 October 2019). Snap elections in North Macedonia after EU rejection. EU Observer.
  12. ^ "North Macedonian leaders agree to hold snap election on April 12". Reuters. 20 October 2019.
  13. ^ Okov, Slav (20 October 2019). "North Macedonia Sets Date for Snap Election After EU Talks Fail". Bloomberg.
  14. ^ "North Macedonia to enter NATO by April 2020, Ministers announce". European Western Balkans. 25 September 2019.
  15. ^ Electoral system IPU
  16. ^ Early Parliamentary Elections 11 December 2016 OSCE
  17. ^ North Macedonia Parties Gear up for Possible Elections Balkan Insight, 4 October 2019
  18. ^ "Најголема мултиетничка коалиција - СДСМ и БЕСА го официјализираа предизборниот договор".
  19. ^ North Macedonia holds first election since changing its name
  20. ^ Kolekjevski, Ivan (6 July 2020). "Spanish PM Sanchez believes Zaev-led pro-European government to lead country after elections". MIA. Archived from the original on 17 July 2020. Retrieved 13 July 2020.
  21. ^ Kolekjevski, Ivan (7 July 2020). "Tsipras: Progressive chapter to continue only with Zoran Zaev". MIA. Archived from the original on 14 July 2020. Retrieved 13 July 2020.
  22. ^ "North Macedonia to hold parliamentary elections on 15 July". Alliance for Liberals and Democrats in Europe Party. 8 July 2020. Retrieved 15 July 2020.[permanent dead link‍]
  23. ^ Kolekjevski, Ivan (9 July 2020). "European Greens support DOM for July 15 elections". MIA. Archived from the original on 13 July 2020. Retrieved 13 July 2020.
  24. ^ Marusic, Sinisa Jakov (6 July 2020). "'Albanian PM' Becomes Wild Card in North Macedonia Election". Balkan Insight.
  25. ^ Sela dhe Gashi nesër nënshkruajnë zyrtarisht marrëveshjen për koalicionim Gazeta Express, 19 February 2020
  26. ^ Marusic, Sinisa Jakov (28 February 2020). "New Alliance Worries North Macedonia's Junior Ruling Party". Balkan Insight.
  27. ^ Smith, Helena (16 July 2020). "North Macedonia's Social Democrats grab slim election victory". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 16 July 2020.
  28. ^ a b "Live Blog: North Macedonia Elections 2020". Balkan Insight. 15 July 2020. Retrieved 16 July 2020.
  29. ^ Misajlovski: I’ll never accept these results, they don’t reflect the reality Republika, 17 July 2020
  30. ^ North Macedonia readies for robust coalition talks after vote Deutsche Welle, 16 July 2020
  31. ^ North Macedonia’s early parliamentary elections well managed despite pandemic but legal instability remains a concern, international observers say OSCE, 16 July 2020
  32. ^ Stamouli, Nektaria (16 July 2020). "Ruling Social Democrats on course to win North Macedonia election". Politico. Retrieved 17 July 2020.
  33. ^ "Opinion: Election nail-biter in North Macedonia ends in political standoff". Deutsche Welle. Retrieved 17 July 2020.
  34. ^ "Mickoski willing to enter talks with all parties, won't accept blackmail". МИА. Archived from the original on 16 July 2020. Retrieved 17 July 2020.
  35. ^ "New Alliance Worries North Macedonia's Junior Ruling Party". Balkan Insight. 28 February 2020. Retrieved 19 July 2020.
  36. ^ "Albanian Opposition Alliance Cries Foul at Live Blog: North Macedonia Elections 2020". Balkan Insight. 15 July 2020. Retrieved 17 July 2020.
  37. ^ "N. Macedonia: Pro-Western party secures coalition deal". AP News. 18 August 2020. Retrieved 20 August 2020.
  38. ^ Marusic, Sinisa Jakov (18 August 2020). "Zoran Zaev to Lead North Macedonia's Government Again". Balkan Insight. Retrieved 20 August 2020.
  39. ^ Marusic, Sinisa Jakov (31 August 2020). "North Macedonia Parliament Confirms Zaev's Return as PM". Balkan Insight. Retrieved 2 September 2020.
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