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Christian population growth

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Christian population growth is the population growth of the global Christian community. According to 2011 Pew Research Center survey, there are 2.18 billion Christians around the world in 2010, up from about 600 million in 1910.[1] And according to 2012 Pew Research Center survey if current trends continue, Christianity will remain the world's largest religion by year 2050. By 2050, the Christian population is expected to exceed 3 billion.[2]

Fertility rate

The Christian fertility rate has varied throughout history, as with other fertility figures. The Christian fertility rate also varies from country to country. In the 20-year period from 1989–2009, the average world fertility rate decreased from 3.50 to 2.58, a fall of 0.92 children per women or 26%. The weighted average fertility rate for Christian nations decreased in the same period from 3.26 to 2.58, a fall of 0.68 children per women or 21%. The weighted average fertility rate for Muslim nations decreased in the same period from 5.17 to 3.23, a fall of 1.94 children per women or 38%. The gap in fertility between the Christian- and Muslim-dominated nations fell from 67% in 1990 to 17% in 2010. If the trend continues, the Muslim and Christian fertility rates will converge in around 2015.[citation needed]

10 countries with highest percentage of Christians Birth surplus by religion
UN Ranking Country Fertility rate
(2005–2010)
(births/woman)[3]		 Percent Christian
1  Vatican City 100.0%
2  Pitcairn Islands 100.0%
3  Ecuador 2.58 91.95%
4  East Timor 6.53 96.9%
5  Armenia 1.39 98.7%
6  Equatorial Guinea 5.36 92.0%
7  Moldova 1.40 95.3%
8  American Samoa 3.22 98.0%
9  Venezuela 2.55 88.0%
10  Greece 1.42 98.0%
Religion Birth surplus[4][unreliable source?]
Christianity 29,708,799
Islam 21,723,118
Hinduism 13,194,111
Buddhism 3,530,918
Sikhism 363,677
Judaism 194,962
Bahá'í 117,158
Jainism 74,539
Confucianism 55,739
Zoroastrianism 45,391
Taoism 25,397
Shinto 8,534
Global population 78,860,791
Total 78,860,791

By branches

Roman Catholic Church

Main article: Roman Catholicism by country
  • Church membership in 2007 was 1.147 billion people[5] (17% of the global population at the time), increasing from the 1950 figure of 437 million[6] and 654 million in 1970.[7][8] On 31 December 2008, membership was 1.166 billion, an increase of 11.54% over the same date in 2000,[9][9] and slightly greater than the rate of increase of the world population (10.77%). The increase was 33.02% in Africa,[9] but only 1.17% in Europe. It was 15.91% in Asia, 11.39% in Oceania, and 10.93% in Americas.[9] As a result, Catholics were 17.77% of the total population in Africa, 63.10% in Americas, 3.05% in Asia, 39.97% in Europe, 26.21% in Oceania, and 17.40% of the world population. Of the world's Catholics, the proportion living in Africa grew from 12.44% in 2000 to 14.84% in 2008, while those living in Europe fell from 26.81% to 24.31%.[10] Membership of the Catholic Church is attained through baptism,[11] and from 1983 to 2009, if someone formally left the Church, that fact was noted in the register of the person's baptism.
  • Monsignor Vittorio Formenti, who compiles the Vatican's yearbook, said in an interview with the Vatican newspaper L'Osservatore Romano that "For the first time in history, we are no longer at the top: Muslims have overtaken us." He said that Catholics accounted for 17.4 percent of the world population—a stable percentage—while Muslims were at 19.2 percent. "It is true that while Muslim families, as is well known, continue to make a lot of children, Christian ones on the contrary tend to have fewer and fewer," the monsignor said.[12] Muslims in 2010 represented as much as 23.4% of the total world population and this is expected to increase to 26.3% by 2030.[13]

Eastern Orthodoxy

Main article: Orthodoxy by country

Protestantism

Main article: Protestantism by country

By country

See also: Christianity by country
  • According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the World Christian Database as of 2007 estimated the six fastest-growing religions of the world to be Islam (1.84%), the Bahá'í Faith (1.7%), Sikhism (1.62%), Jainism (1.57%), Hinduism (1.52%) and Christianity (1.32%). High birth rates were cited as the reason for the growths.[34]
  • The U.S. Center for World Mission stated a growth rate of Christianity at 2.3% for the period 1970 to 1996 (slightly higher than the world population growth rate at the time). This increased the claimed percentage of adherents of Christianity from 33.7% to 33.9%.[35]
  • The World Christian Database as of 2007 estimated the growth rate of Christianity at 1.32%. High birth rates and conversions were cited as the main reasons.[36]
  • Using data from the period 2000–2005 the 2006 Christian World Database estimated that by number of new adherents, Christianity was the fastest growing religion in the world with 30,360,000 new adherents in 2006. This was followed by Islam with 23,920,000 and Hinduism with 13,224,000 estimated new adherents in the same period.[37]
  • According to 2011 Pew Research Center survey, there are 2.18 billion Christians around the world in 2010, up from about 600 million in 1910.[1]
  • According to 2015 Believers in Christ from a Muslim Background: A Global Census study estimates 10,283,700 Muslim convert to Christianity around the world.[27]
  • According to 2012 Pew Research Center survey if current trends continue, Christianity will remains the world's largest religion by year 2050. By 2050, the Christian population is expected to exceed 3 billion.[2] While Muslims have an average of 3.1 children per woman—the highest rate of all religious groups. Christians are second, with 2.7 children per woman.
Country or subnational unit Regular church attendance (%)
Alabama Alabama 58%[38]
Poland Poland 56.7%[39]
Texas Texas 49%[38]
United States United States average 42%[38]
California California 32%[38]
Canada Canada 25%
Vermont Vermont 24% [38]
France France 15%
United Kingdom United Kingdom 10%[40]
Australia Australia 7.5%[41]
Norway Norway 5%[42]

Africa

Further information: Christianity in Africa
  • Christianity has been estimated[1] to be growing rapidly in South America, Africa, and Asia.[22] In Africa, for instance, in 1900, there were only 8.7 million[1] adherents of Christianity; now there are 390 million,[1] and it is expected that by 2025 there will be 600 million Christians in Africa.[1] The number of Catholics in Africa has increased from one million in 1902 to 329,882,000.[1] There are now 1.5 million churches whose congregations account for 46 million people.[citation needed]
  • A 2015 study estimates 2,161,000 Muslim Africans that convert to Christianity.[27]

Algeria Algeria

Further information: Christianity in Algeria
  • Converts to Christianity may be investigated and searched by the authorities.[43] Conversions to Christianity have been most common in Kabylie, especially in the wilaya of Tizi-Ouzou.[44]
  • A 2015 study estimates 380,000 Muslims converted to Christianity in Algeria.[27]

Ethiopia Ethiopia

Further information: Christianity in Ethiopia
  • A 2015 study estimates 400,000 Muslims converted to Christianity in Ethiopia.[27]

Morocco Morocco

Further information: Christianity in Morocco
  • On 27 March 2010, the Moroccan magazine TelQuel stated that thousands of Moroccans had converted to Christianity. Pointing out the absence of official data, Service de presse Common Ground, cites unspecified sources that stated that about 5,000 Moroccans became Christians between 2005 and 2010.[45] According to the International Religious Freedom Report for 2014 estimate that there may be as many as 8,000 Christian citizens throughout the country, but many reportedly do not meet regularly due to fear of government surveillance and social persecution.[46]
  • According to different estimates, there are about 25,000-45,000 Moroccan Christians of Berber or Arab descent mostly converted from Islam.[47] Other sources give a number of a bit more than 1,000.[48] A popular Christian program by Brother Rachid has led many former Muslims in North Africa and the Middle East to convert to Christianity. His programs have been credited with assisting in the conversion of over 150,000 former Muslims to Christianity in Morocco.[49]

Nigeria Nigeria

Further information: Christianity in Nigeria
  • The percentage of Christians in Nigeria grew from 21.4% in 1953 to 48.2% in 2003.[50] This is due to the high number of missionaries in Nigeria.[citation needed]

South Africa South Africa

Tunisia Tunisia

Further information: Christianity in Tunisia
  • International Religious Freedom Report for 2007 estimat thousands of Tunisian Muslims who convert to Christianity.[52]

America

Canada Canada

Further information: Christianity in Canada and Religion in Canada

In the Canada 2001 Census[53][54][55][56] 72% of the Canadian population list Roman Catholicism or Protestantism as a religion. The Roman Catholic Church in Canada is by far the country's largest single denomination. Those who listed no religion account for 16% of total respondents. In British Columbia, however, 35% of respondents reported no religion—more than any single denomination and more than all Protestants combined.[57]

Top Religious Denominations in Canada
2001 1991 % change
(in numbers)
Number % Number %
Total Population 29,639,035 26,944040 +9.8
Christian 22,851,825 77 22,503,360 83 +1.5
– Roman Catholic 12,793,125 43.2 12,203,625 45.2 +4.8
– Total Protestant 8,654,845 29.2 9,427,675 34.9 −8.2
– United Church of Canada 2,839,125 9.6 3,093,120 11.5 −8.2
– Anglican Church of Canada 2,035,495 6.9 2,188,110 8.1 −7.0
– Christian, not included elsewhere¹ 780,450 2.6 353,040 1.3 +121.1
- Baptist 729,470 2.5 663,360 2.5 +10.0
– Lutheran 606,590 2.0 636,205 2.4 −4.7
– Protestant, not included elsewhere² 549,205 1.9 628,945 2.3 −12.7
– Presbyterian 409,830 1.4 636,295 2.4 −35.6
– Christian Orthodox 495,245 1.7 387,395 1.4 +27.8
No Religious Affiliation 4,900,090 16.5 3,397,000 12.6 +44.2
Other
– Muslim 579,645 2.0 253,265 0.9 +128.9
– Jewish 329,990 1.1 318,185 1.2 +3.7
– Buddhist 300,345 1.0 163,415 0.6 +83.8
– Hindu 297,200 1.0 157,010 0.6 +89.3
– Sikh 278,415 0.9 147,440 0.5 +88.8
¹ Includes persons who report “Christian”, and those who report “Apostolic”, “Born-again Christian” and “Evangelical”.
² Includes persons who report only “Protestant”.
* For comparability purposes, 1991 data are presented according to 2001 boundaries.

United States United States

Further information: Christianity in the United States

The United States government does not collect religious data in its census. The survey below, the American Religious Identification Survey (ARIS) 2008, was a random digit-dialed telephone survey of 54,461 American residential households in the contiguous United States. The 1990 sample size was 113,723; 2001 sample size was 50,281.

Adult respondents were asked the open-ended question, "What is your religion, if any?" Interviewers did not prompt or offer a suggested list of potential answers. The religion of the spouse or partner was also asked. If the initial answer was "Protestant" or "Christian" further questions were asked to probe which particular denomination. About one third of the sample was asked more detailed demographic questions.

Religious Self-Identification of the U.S. Adult Population: 1990, 2001, 2008[58]
Figures are not adjusted for refusals to reply; investigators suspect refusals are possibly more representative of "no religion" than any other group.

Source:ARIS 2008[58]
Group
 1990
adults
x 1,000
 2001
adults
x 1,000
 2008
adults
x 1,000
Numerical
Change
1990–
2008
as %
of 1990
 1990
% of
adults
 2001
% of
adults
 2008
% of
adults
 change
in % of
total
adults
1990–
2008
Adult population, total 175,440 207,983 228,182 30.1%
Adult population, Responded 171,409 196,683 216,367 26.2% 97.7% 94.6% 94.8% −2.9%
Total Christian 151,225 159,514 173,402 14.7% 86.2% 76.7% 76.0% −10.2%
Catholic 46,004 50,873 57,199 24.3% 26.2% 24.5% 25.1% −1.2%
non-Catholic Christian 105,221 108,641 116,203 10.4% 60.0% 52.2% 50.9% −9.0%
Baptist 33,964 33,820 36,148 6.4% 19.4% 16.3% 15.8% −3.5%
Mainline Christian 32,784 35,788 29,375 −10.4% 18.7% 17.2% 12.9% −5.8%
Methodist 14,174 14,039 11,366 −19.8% 8.1% 6.8% 5.0% −3.1%
Lutheran 9,110 9,580 8,674 −4.8% 5.2% 4.6% 3.8% −1.4%
Presbyterian 4,985 5,596 4,723 −5.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.1% −0.8%
Episcopalian/Anglican 3,043 3,451 2,405 −21.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.1% −0.7%
United Church of Christ 438 1,378 736 68.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Christian Generic 25,980 22,546 32,441 24.9% 14.8% 10.8% 14.2% −0.6%
Christian Unspecified 8,073 14,190 16,384 102.9% 4.6% 6.8% 7.2% 2.6%
Non-denominational Christian 194 2,489 8,032 4040.2% 0.1% 1.2% 3.5% 3.4%
Protestant – Unspecified 17,214 4,647 5,187 −69.9% 9.8% 2.2% 2.3% −7.5%
Evangelical/Born Again 546 1,088 2,154 294.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% 0.6%
Pentecostal/Charismatic 5,647 7,831 7,948 40.7% 3.2% 3.8% 3.5% 0.3%
Pentecostal – Unspecified 3,116 4,407 5,416 73.8% 1.8% 2.1% 2.4% 0.6%
Assemblies of God 617 1,105 810 31.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0%
Church of God 590 943 663 12.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0%
Other Protestant Denominations 4,630 5,949 7,131 54.0% 2.6% 2.9% 3.1% 0.5%
Churches of Christ 1,769 2,593 1,921 8.6% 1.0% 1.2% 0.8% −0.2%
Seventh-Day Adventist 668 724 938 40.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Jehovah's Witnesses 1,381 1,331 1,914 38.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Mormon/Latter Day Saints 2,487 2,697 3,158 27.0% 1.4% 1.3% 1.4% 0.0%
Total non-Christian religions 5,853 7,740 8,796 50.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.9% 0.5%
Jewish 3,137 2,837 2,680 −14.6% 1.8% 1.4% 1.2% −0.6%
Eastern Religions 687 2,020 1,961 185.4% 0.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5%
Buddhist 404 1,082 1,189 194.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Muslim 527 1,104 1,349 156.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
New Religious Movements & Others 1,296 1,770 2,804 116.4% 0.7% 0.9% 1.2% 0.5%
None/ No religion, total 14,331 29,481 34,169 138.4% 8.2% 14.2% 15.0% 6.8%
Agnostic+Atheist 1,186 1,893 3,606 204.0% 0.7% 0.9% 1.6% 0.9%
Did Not Know/ Refused to reply 4,031 11,300 11,815 193.1% 2.3% 5.4% 5.2% 2.9%

Highlights:[58]

  1. The ARIS 2008 survey was carried out during February–November 2008 and collected answers from 54,461 respondents who were questioned in English or Spanish.
  2. The American population self-identifies as predominantly Christian but Americans are slowly becoming less Christian.
    • 86% of American adults identified as Christians in 1990 and 76% in 2008.
    • The historic Mainline churches and denominations have experienced the steepest declines while the non-denominational Christian identity has been trending upward particularly since 2001.
    • The challenge to Christianity in the U.S. does not come from other religions but rather from a rejection of all forms of organized religion.
  3. 34% of American adults considered themselves "Born Again or Evangelical Christians" in 2008.
  4. The U. S. population continues to show signs of becoming less religious, with one out of every seven Americans failing to indicate a religious identity in 2008.
    • The "Nones" (no stated religious preference, atheist, or agnostic) continue to grow, though at a much slower pace than in the 1990s, from 8.2% in 1990, to 14.1% in 2001, to 15.0% in 2008.
    • Asian Americans are substantially more likely to indicate no religious identity than other racial or ethnic groups.
  5. One sign of the lack of attachment of Americans to religion is that 27% do not expect a religious funeral at their death.
  6. Based on their stated beliefs rather than their religious identification in 2008, 70% of Americans believe in a personal God, roughly 12% of Americans are atheist (no God) or agnostic (unknowable or unsure), and another 12% are deistic (a higher power but no personal God).
  7. America's religious geography has been transformed since 1990. Religious switching along with Hispanic immigration has significantly changed the religious profile of some states and regions. Between 1990 and 2008, the Catholic population proportion of the New England states fell from 50% to 36% and in New York it fell from 44% to 37%, while it rose in California from 29% to 37% and in Texas from 23% to 32%.
  8. Overall the 1990–2008 ARIS time series shows that changes in religious self-identification in the first decade of the 21st century have been moderate in comparison to the 1990s, which was a period of significant shifts in the religious composition of the United States.

Asia

Afghanistan Afghanistan

Further information: Christianity in Afghanistan

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Further information: Christianity in Azerbaijan

Bangladesh Bangladesh

Further information: Christianity in Bangladesh
  • A 2015 study estimates some 130,000 Christians from a Muslim background residing in the Bangladesh, though not all are necessarily citizens.[62]

China China

Further information: Christianity in China
  • In recent years, the number of Chinese Christians has increased significantly, particularly since the easing of restrictions on religious activity during economic reforms in the late 1970s; Christians were 4 million before 1949 (3 million Catholics and 1 million Protestants), and are reaching 67 million today.[1][63] Various statistical analyses have found that between 2% and 4% of the Chinese identify as Christian.

India India

Further information: Christianity in India

Indonesia Indonesia

Further information: Christianity in Indonesia
  • According to Believers in Christ from a Muslim Background: A Global Census study found that between 1960-2015 about 6.5 million Indonesian Muslims convert to Christianity.[27] Some reports also show that many of the Chinese Indonesians minority convert to Christianity.[64][65] Demographer Aris Ananta reported in 2008 that "anecdotal evidence suggests that more Buddhist Chinese have become Christians as they increased their standards of education".[66]

Iran Iran

Further information: Christianity in Iran
  • Christianity is reportedly the fastest growing religion in Iran with an average annual rate of 5.2%.[67] A 2015 study estimates between 100,000 and 500,000 believers Christians from a Muslim background living in Iran, most of the evangelical Christians.[68]

Israel Israel

Further information: Christianity in Israel

Japan Japan

Further information: Christianity in Japan
  • According to poll conducted by the Gallup Organization in 2006, found that Christianity is has increased significantly in Japan, particularly among youth, and a high numbers of teens are becoming Christians.[69]

Malaysia Malaysia

Further information: Christianity in Malaysia

Mongolia Mongolia

Further information: Christianity in Mongolia

Singapore Singapore

Further information: Christianity in Singapore
  • The percentage of Christians among Singaporeans increased from 12.7% in 1990 to 17.5% in 2010.[72]

South Korea South Korea

Further information: Christianity in Korea
  • In South Korea, Christianity has grown from 20.7% in 1985 to 29.5% in 2005 according to the World Christian Database.[51][73]

Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan

Further information: Christianity in Kyrgyzstan
  • A 2015 study estimates some 19,000 Christians from a Muslim background residing in Kyrgyzstan.[62]

Turkey Turkey

Further information: Christianity in Turkey

Vietnam Vietnam

Further information: Christianity in Vietnam

Europe

France France

Further information: Christianity in France
  • Protestants have increased as a percentage of total population from 1% in 1987 to 3% in 2009.[82]
  • Reports form Le Monde estimated that 15,000 Muslims convert every year to Christianity.[83]

Norway Norway

Further information: Christianity in Norway

Russia Russia

Further information: Christianity in Russia
  • According to Roman Silantyev the executive secretary of the Inter-religious Council in Russia. About 2 million Muslims in Russia convert to Christianity between in the last fifteen years while only 2,5 thousand Russians converted to Islam.[85]

Continents and countries with the largest Christian population in 2050 if the percentage remains the same as today

Table based on statistics from GeoHive:[86][87][unreliable source?]

Rank Continent Christians (2010) Rank Continent Christians (2050)
1. Americas 804,140,000 1. Americas 1,005,838,000
2. Europe 550,911,000 2. Africa 951,270,000
3. Africa 482,240,000 3. Europe 670,607,000
4. Asia 278,273,000 4. Asia 353,125,000
5. Oceania 25,754,000 5. Oceania 37,662,000
Rank Country Christians (2010) Rank Country Christians (2050)
1.  United States 243,186,000 1.  United States 329,343,000
2.  Brazil 174,700,000 2.  Brazil 235,666,000
3.  Mexico 105,095,000 3.  Ethiopia 179,493,000
4.  Russia 99,775,000 4.  Congo, Democratic Republic of 170,380,000
5.  Philippines 81,530,000 5.  Mexico 139,773,000
6.  Nigeria 76,281,000 6.  Nigeria 127,374,000
7.  China, People's Republic of 66,959,000 7.  Uganda 123,415,000
8.  Congo, Democratic Republic of 63,825,000 8.  Russia 115,756,000
9.  Italy 55,070,000 9.  Philippines 112,756,000
10.  Ethiopia 54,978,000 10.  China, People's Republic of 102,208,000

See also

References

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  61. ^ "Christian Missionaries Becoming Active in Azerbaijan" (in Azerbaijani). Tehran Radio. 19 June 2011. Retrieved 12 August 2012.
  62. ^ a b Johnstone, Patrick; Miller, Duane Alexander (2015). "Believers in Christ from a Muslim Background: A Global Census". IJRR. 11 (10): 1–19. Retrieved 30 October 2015.
  63. ^ MIller, 2006. pp. 185-186
  64. ^ In Indonesia, Lunar New Year an old practice for young Christians.
  65. ^ In Indonesia, the Chinese go to church.
  66. ^ "In Indonesia, Lunar New Year an old practice for young Christians". Agence France-Presse. 7 February 2008. Archived from the original on 15 August 2011. Retrieved 15 August 2011.
  67. ^ "Religion and Religious Freedom". Retrieved 19 March 2015.
  68. ^ Johnstone, Patrick; Miller, Duane Alexander (2015). "Believers in Christ from a Muslim Background: A Global Census". Interdisciplinary Journal of Research on Religion. 11: 8. Retrieved 30 October 2015.
  69. ^ CHRISTIANITY ON UPSWING IN JAPAN
  70. ^ "160,000 Have Converted Out of Hinduism in Malaysia in 25 Years - Christian Aggression". christianaggression.org.
  71. ^ "Religions in Mongolia". mongolia-attractions.com.
  72. ^ "Better-educated S'pore residents look to religion". asiaone.com.
  73. ^ "Presidential Election in South Korea Highlights Influence of Christian Community". Pew Research Center's Religion & Public Life Project. 12 December 2007.
  74. ^ 35,000 Turks convert into Christianity each year in Turkey!
  75. ^ Johnstone, Patrick; Miller, Duane Alexander (2015). "Believers in Christ from a Muslim Background: A Global Census". Interdisciplinary Journal of Research on Religion. 11: 17. Retrieved 20 October 2015.
  76. ^ "International Institute for Religious Freedom: Single Post". Iirf.eu. Retrieved 11 August 2015.
  77. ^ Jonathan Luxmoore (4 March 2011). "Turkish Protestants still face "long path" to religious freedom". The Christian Century. Retrieved 11 August 2015.
  78. ^ "TURKEY - Christians in eastern Turkey worried despite church opening". Hurriyetdailynews.com. 20 July 2011. Retrieved 11 August 2015.
  79. ^ Muslim Nationalism and the New Turks - Jenny White. Books.google.it. 27 April 2014. Retrieved 11 August 2015.
  80. ^ "TURKEY: Protestant church closed down | Church In Chains - Ireland :: An Irish voice for suffering, persecuted Christians Worldwide". Churchinchains.ie. 3 October 2014. Retrieved 11 August 2015.
  81. ^ "Annual Report on International Religious Freedom for 2005 – Vietnam". U.S. Department of State. 30 June 2005. Retrieved 11 March 2007.
  82. ^ IFOP press document retrieved 4 March 2013
  83. ^ France: Muslims convert to Christianity
  84. ^ "Religious communities and life stance communities - SSB". ssb.no.
  85. ^ 2 million ethnic Muslims adopted baptism in Russia while only 2,5 thousand Russians converted to Islam - expert
  86. ^ Graphical view at evolution of population by continent
  87. ^ Countries with highest population for 1950, 2010 and 2050
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