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2024 Atlantic hurricane season

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2024 Atlantic hurricane season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedJune 19, 2024
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Strongest storm
NameAlberto
 • Maximum winds50 mph (85 km/h)
(1-minute sustained)
 • Lowest pressure993 mbar (hPa; 29.32 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions1
Total storms1
Hurricanes0
Major hurricanes
(Cat. 3+)		0
Total fatalities4 total
Total damageUnknown
Related articles
Atlantic hurricane seasons
2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing Atlantic hurricane season in the Northern Hemisphere. Many major forecasting agencies have predicted that it will have well above-average activity. The season officially began on June 1, and ends on November 30. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the Atlantic Ocean. The first named storm, Tropical Storm Alberto, developed on June 19, giving the season the slowest start since 2014.

Seasonal forecasts[edit]

Source Date Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes 		Ref
Average (1991–2020) 14.4 7.2 3.2 [1]
Record high activity 30 15 7† [2]
Record low activity 1 0† 0† [2]
TSR December 11, 2023 20 9 4 [3]
CSU April 4, 2024 23 11 5 [4]
MFM April 5, 2024 21 11 N/A [5]
TSR April 8, 2024 23 11 5 [6]
UA April 8, 2024 21 11 5 [7]
MU April 12, 2024 26 11 5 [8]
NCSU April 16, 2024 15–20 10–12 3–4 [9]
UPenn April 24, 2024 33 N/A N/A [10]
SMN May 6, 2024 20–23 9–11 4–5 [11]
UKMO* May 22, 2024 22 12 4 [12]
NOAA May 23, 2024 17–25 8–13 4–7 [13]
TSR May 30, 2024 24 12 6 [14]
CSU June 11, 2024 23 11 5 [15]
Actual activity 1 0 0
* June–November only
† Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all)

In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the United Kingdom's Met Office (UKMO), and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year.[16]

According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained roughly 14 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 72–111 units.[1][17] Broadly speaking, ACE is a measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical storm multiplied by the length of time it existed. It is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical and subtropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h). NOAA typically categorizes a season as above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season is sometimes also considered.[1]

Pre-season forecasts[edit]

On December 11, 2023, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) released its extended range forecast for the 2024 season, predicting an above-average season with 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.[nb 1][3] They took into account ongoing warm sea-surface temperatures (SST) throughout most of the basin, specifically in the Main Development Region and in the Caribbean Sea on top of the 2023–2024 El Niño event which was predicted to weaken to a neutral phase by August 2024.[3] TSR updated their forecast on May 30, predicting 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes with an ACE of 226 units.[14] On April 4, 2024, Colorado State University (CSU) released its forecast, calling for an extremely active hurricane season, with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, with an ACE index of 210 units, citing the extremely warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the development of a La Niña by the summer.[4] On April 5, Météo-France (MFM) issued a prediction of 21 named storms and 11 hurricanes. They cited warm sea surface temperatures, wind patterns, and humidity.[5] On April 8, TSR updated their prediction, predicting 23 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes, with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 217 units. They predicted that moderate La Niña conditions would occur in the summer and persist into fall and above average sea surface temperatures would also persist into summer.[6] On the same day, the University of Arizona (UA) posted their forecast calling for a very active season featuring 21 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 156 units.[7] On April 12, University of Missouri (MU) issued their prediction of 26 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.[8] On April 16, NCSU issued their prediction of 15–20 named storms, 10–12 hurricanes, and 3–4 major hurricanes.[9] On April 24, the University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) issued their prediction of a record-breaking season, predicting an unprecedented 33 (±6) named storms. They cited expected moderate La Niña conditions and record-warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic tied to large-scale warming.[10] On May 6, the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) issued their forecast of 20–23 tropical storms, 9–11 hurricanes, and 4–5 major hurricanes.[11] On May 22, UKMO published their forecast for the 2024 season, calling for 22 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, and a ACE index of 212 units.[19] One day later, NOAA published their hurricane season prediction, forecasting an above-average season of 17–25 named storms, 8–13 hurricanes, and 4–7 major hurricanes with an 85% chance of being an above-average season.[13]

Seasonal summary[edit]

For a chronological guide, see Timeline of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Saffir–Simpson scale

Background[edit]

Officially, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and will end on November 30.[20] So far, one tropical cyclone has formed, which also intensified into a named storm.

This season's ACE index, as of 15:00 UTC June 20, is approximately 0.8 units.[21] This number represents sum of the squares of the maximum sustained wind speed (knots) for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm intensity, divided by 10,000. Therefore, tropical depressions are not included.

Early activity[edit]

Though the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, it got off to the slowest start since 2014. This was due to a large stationary heat dome over Central America and Mexico, as tropical cyclogenesis in June often occurs over the Gulf of Mexico and northern Caribbean Sea.[22] The season's first named storm, Tropical Storm Alberto, formed in the western Gulf of Mexico on June 19,[23] then proceeded to make landfall on the northeastern coast of Mexico the following day.[24]

Systems[edit]

Tropical Storm Alberto[edit]

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 19 – June 20
Peak intensity50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min);
993 mbar (hPa)

On June 12, the NHC began monitoring an area of disturbed weather over the western Gulf of Mexico for possible tropical development.[25] Then on June 17, a low-pressure area formed from this system, over the Bay of Campeche.[26] It became better organized later that day and was designated Potential Tropical Cyclone One.[27] The system slowly organized over the following two days as it approached the Mexican coast,[28] developing into Tropical Storm Alberto on June 19.[23] Alberto steadily intensified throughout the day, ultimately attaining peak sustained winds of 50 mph (85 km/h), and a minimum central pressure of 993 mbar (29.32 inHg).[29] Early the following morning, the system made landfall near Tampico, Tamaulipas.[24] Alberto rapidly weakened over land,[30] dissipating just nine hours later.[31]

Torrential rainfall from Alberto was responsible for four deaths in Nuevo León: one in Monterrey, one in El Carmen, and two in Allende.[32][33][34] Ports in Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Campeche were closed.[35] In Texas, 51 counties were put under disaster declarations,[36] and Amtrak's westbound Sunset Limited was cancelled between New Orleans, Louisiana, and San Antonio, Texas, due to the storm.[37] Alberto brought heavy rainfall to the Galveston area, leading to freshwater flooding. Many beaches were closed during the storm further to the south,[38] Between Portland and Gregory, U.S. 181 was shut down due to downed power lines.[39] Portions of coastal Louisiana, especially Grand Isle, received some flooding.[40]

Storm names[edit]

Main articles: Tropical cyclone naming, History of tropical cyclone naming, and List of historic tropical cyclone names

The following list of names is being used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2024.[41] This is the same list used in the 2018 season, with the exceptions of Francine and Milton, which replaced Florence and Michael, respectively.[42]

  • Alberto
  • Beryl (unused)
  • Chris (unused)
  • Debby (unused)
  • Ernesto (unused)
  • Francine (unused)
  • Gordon (unused)
  • Helene (unused)
  • Isaac (unused)
  • Joyce (unused)
  • Kirk (unused)
  • Leslie (unused)
  • Milton (unused)
  • Nadine (unused)
  • Oscar (unused)
  • Patty (unused)
  • Rafael (unused)
  • Sara (unused)
  • Tony (unused)
  • Valerie (unused)
  • William (unused)

Season effects[edit]

This is a table of all of the storms that have formed in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their name, duration, peak classification and intensities, areas affected, damage, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all of the damage figures are in 2024 USD.

Saffir–Simpson scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2024 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season statistics
Storm
name 		Dates active Storm category
at peak intensity 		Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h) 		Min.
press.
(mbar) 		Areas affected Damage
(USD) 		Deaths Ref(s)
Alberto June 19–20 Tropical storm 50 (85) 993 Yucatán Peninsula, Northeastern Mexico, Texas, Louisiana Unknown 4 [33][34]
Season aggregates
1 systems June 19 – Season ongoing   50 (85) 993 Unknown 4  

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher—1-minute sustained winds higher than 110 miles per hour (178 km/h)—on the Saffir–Simpson scale are described as major hurricanes.[18]

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b c "Background Information: North Atlantic Hurricane Season". College Park, Maryland: Climate Prediction Center. April 9, 2021. Archived from the original on July 24, 2020. Retrieved December 6, 2022.
  2. ^ a b "North Atlantic Ocean Historical Tropical Cyclone Statistics". Fort Collins, Colorado: Colorado State University. Archived from the original on June 4, 2023. Retrieved July 18, 2023.
  3. ^ a b c Wood, Nick (December 11, 2023). "Extended Range Forecast for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2024" (PDF). Tropical Storm Risk. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 11, 2023. Retrieved December 11, 2023.
  4. ^ a b Klotzbach, Phil (April 4, 2024). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2024" (PDF). Colorado State University. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 4, 2024. Retrieved April 4, 2024.
  5. ^ a b "Bulletin technique des prévisions d'activité cyclonique de la saison 2024". Météo-France (in French). April 4, 2024. Archived from the original on April 18, 2024. Retrieved June 17, 2024.
  6. ^ a b Lea, Adam (April 8, 2024). "Extended Range Forecast for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2024" (PDF). Tropical Storm Risk. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 8, 2024. Retrieved April 8, 2024.
  7. ^ a b Davis, Kyle; Zeng, Xubin (April 8, 2024). "Forecast of the 2024 Hurricane Activities over the North Atlantic". Tucson, Arizona: University of Arizona. Archived from the original on April 8, 2024. Retrieved April 8, 2024.
  8. ^ a b Weaver, Sarah; Schwent, Thomas; Sadeghi, Atabak; Renken, Joe; Lupo, Tony. "Atlantic Ocean Basin Tropical Forecast 2024" (PDF). University of Missouri. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 25, 2024. Retrieved April 25, 2024.
  9. ^ a b Xie, Lian; Peake, Tracey (April 16, 2024). "NC State Researchers Predict Active Hurricane Season". Raleigh, North Carolina: NC State News. Archived from the original on April 17, 2024. Retrieved April 16, 2024.
  10. ^ a b Magubane, Nathi (April 24, 2024). "2024 Tropical Cyclone Prediction". Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: University of Pennsylvania. Archived from the original on April 24, 2024. Retrieved April 24, 2024.
  11. ^ a b "Temporada de Ciclones Tropicales 2024". Mexico City, Mexico: Gobierno de Mexico. May 6, 2024. Archived from the original on May 7, 2024. Retrieved May 7, 2024.
  12. ^ "North Atlantic tropical storm seasonal forecast 2024". The United Kingdom Met Office. May 22, 2024. Archived from the original on May 22, 2024. Retrieved May 22, 2024.
  13. ^ a b "NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. May 23, 2024. Retrieved May 23, 2024.
  14. ^ a b Lea, Adam (May 30, 2024). "Pre-Season Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2024" (PDF). Tropical Storm Risk. Archived (PDF) from the original on May 30, 2024. Retrieved May 30, 2024.
  15. ^ Klotzbach, Phil (June 11, 2024). "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2024" (PDF). Colorado State University. Archived (PDF) from the original on June 11, 2024. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  16. ^ Klotzbach, Philip; Blake, Eric; Camp, Joanne; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Chan, Johnny C.L.; Kang, Nam-Young; Kuleshov, Yuri; Lee, Sai-Ming; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Saunders, Mark; Takaya, Yuhei; Vitart, Frederic; Zhan, Ruifen (September 2019). "Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecasting". Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 8 (3): 134–149. doi:10.1016/j.tcrr.2019.10.003.
  17. ^ Masters, Jeff (April 4, 2024). "Forecasters predict an extremely active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season". Yale Climate Connections. Archived from the original on June 1, 2024. Retrieved June 1, 2024.
  18. ^ "Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale". Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Archived from the original on June 20, 2020. Retrieved November 29, 2023.
  19. ^ "North Atlantic tropical storm seasonal forecast 2024". The United Kingdom Met Office. May 22, 2024. Archived from the original on May 22, 2024. Retrieved May 22, 2024.
  20. ^ "Frequently Asked Questions". Miami, Florida: Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. June 1, 2023. Retrieved June 20, 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  21. ^ "Real-Time Tropical Cyclone North Atlantic Ocean Statistics". Fort Collins, Colorado: Colorado State University. Retrieved June 20, 2024.
  22. ^ Sistek, Scott (June 5, 2024). "Atlantic hurricane season off to slowest start in a decade: Will aggressive forecasts still hold?". FOX Weather. Retrieved June 6, 2024.
  23. ^ a b Berg, Robbie (June 19, 2024). Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 8 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 19, 2024.
  24. ^ a b Kelly, Larry (June 20, 2024). Tropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 11A (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 20, 2024.
  25. ^ Kelly, Larry (June 12, 2024). Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 17, 2024.
  26. ^ Beven, Jack (June 17, 2024). Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 17, 2024.
  27. ^ Beven, Jack (June 17, 2024). Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 17, 2024.
  28. ^ Pasch, Richard (June 19, 2024). Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 7 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 19, 2024.
  29. ^ Lisa, Bucci (June 19, 2024). Tropical Storm Alberto Public Number 10 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 19, 2024.
  30. ^ Kelly, Larry (June 20, 2024). Tropical Depression Alberto Discussion Number 12 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 20, 2024.
  31. ^ Kelly, Larry (June 20, 2024). Remnants Of Alberto Discussion Number 13 (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. Retrieved June 20, 2024.
  32. ^ Perales, Marcela (June 20, 2024). ""Alberto" ha dejado 4 fallecidos, evacuaciones y desbordamientos en zona metropolitana de Nuevo León". El Universal (in Spanish). Retrieved June 20, 2024.
  33. ^ a b "U.S. Tropical Storm Alberto blamed for several deaths as it moves in on Mexico's Gulf Coast". CBS News. June 20, 2024.
  34. ^ a b "Tormenta tropical Alberto cobra sus primeras víctimas: tres menores muertos en Nuevo León". Proceso (in Spanish). June 20, 2024. Retrieved June 20, 2024.
  35. ^ "Potencial Ciclón Tropical Uno: ¿Cuándo llegará y qué estados se verán afectados?". Aristegui Noticias (in Spanish). June 18, 2024. Retrieved June 18, 2024.
  36. ^ "Texas Gov. Greg Abbott issues disaster declaration as Tropical Storm Alberto approaches". NBC News. June 19, 2024. Retrieved June 19, 2024.
  37. ^ "Amtrak Train 1 of 06/19/2024". dixielandsoftware.net. Retrieved June 20, 2024.
  38. ^ Hamilton, Brandon; Natario, Nick (June 19, 2024). "Galveston, Surfside Beach among coastal communities hit with high winds, rain, and flooding". ABC 13.
  39. ^ US Highway 81 closed due to downed powerline; updates on Tropical Storm Alberto, AOL, June 20, 2024
  40. ^ O'Connor, Shay (June 19, 2024). Tropical Storm Alberto: Video shows Grand Isle roads flood from tropical weather. Retrieved June 19, 2024 – via www.wdsu.com.
  41. ^ Gay, Nancy (April 4, 2024). "Hurricane names 2024: Here's why the list may look familiar". Tampa, Florida: WTVT. Archived from the original on April 10, 2024. Retrieved April 10, 2024.
  42. ^ "Florence and Michael retired by the World Meteorological Organization". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. March 20, 2019. Archived from the original on March 20, 2019. Retrieved January 25, 2024.

External links[edit]

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