Opinion polling for the September 2019 Israeli legislative election

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Polling for the next Israeli legislative election, which will take place on 17 September 2019,[1] began on 26 May 2019.[2]

Seat projections

Graphs

These graphs show the polling trends from the time Knesset dissolved until the election day. No polls may be published from the end of Friday before the election until the polling stations closing on election day at 22:00.[3]

If more than one poll was conducted on the same day, the graphs show the average of the polls for that date.

Polls

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest figure in each survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then both figures are shaded. Parties that fall below the threshold are denoted by the percentage of votes that they received (N%) instead of the seats they would have gotten. When a poll has no information on a certain party, that party is instead marked by a dash (–).

Legend
Date Polling firm Publisher Hadash
Ta'al
Ra'am
Balad
Meretz Labor Blue &
White
Gesher Yisrael
Beiteinu
Likud
Kulanu
Zehut New
Right
United
Right
Shas UTJ Opp. Gov.
Current seats 6 4 4 6 35 5 39 5 8 8 60 60
2 Aug Deadline to submit the candidate lists[4]
14 Jun Maagar Mohot 103fm[5] 6 4 5 4 33 8 35 5 5 7 8 60 60
7 Jun Panels Politics Maariv[6] 7 4 4 33 7 37 6 6 7 8 56 64
2 Jun Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[7] 6 5 4 4 34 8 36 (2.0%) 5 4 7 7 61 59
30 May Panels Politics Maariv[8] 5 4 6 (1.9%) 33 9 37 (1.4%) 5 6 7 8 57 63
30 May Panel Project HaMidgam & Statnet Reshet 13[9] 7 4 6 4 33 9 36 7 7 7 63 57
30 May NAKTAR Kan 11[10] 6 4 5 5 34 (2.2%) 8 35 (3.1%) 4 4 7 8 62 58
30 May The 21st Knesset is dissolved[1]
28 May Kulanu and Likud agree to run on a joint list[11]
Date Polling firm Publisher Hadash
Ta'al
Ra'am
Balad
Meretz Labor Blue &
White
Gesher Yisrael
Beiteinu
Kulanu Likud Zehut New
Right
United
Right
Shas UTJ Opp. Gov.
28 May Direct Polls[12] Makor Rishon 7 (2.30%) 5 7 33 (0.96%) 9 (1.67%) 34 (1.44%) 5 5 7 8 61 59
26 May Panels Politics[2] Maariv 7 5 6 34 6 35 5 6 8 8 58 62
9 Apr Election results[13] 6 4 4 6 35 (1.73%) 5 4 35 (2.74%) (3.22%) 5 8 8 60 60

Scenarios

Likud+Ayelet Shaked, United Right+Naftali Bennett
Date Polling firm Publisher Hadash
Ta'al
Ra'am
Balad
Meretz Labor Blue &
White
Gesher Yisrael
Beiteinu
Likud
Kulanu
Zehut United
Right
Shas UTJ Opp. Gov.
30 May Panels Politics Maariv[8] 4 5 6 34 8 41 7 7 8 57 63
Gabi Ashkenazi leading Blue & White
Date Polling firm Publisher Hadash
Ta'al
Ra'am
Balad
Meretz Labor Blue &
White
Gesher Yisrael
Beiteinu
Likud
Kulanu
Zehut New
Right
United
Right
Shas UTJ Opp. Gov.
14 Jun Maagar Mohot 103fm[5] 6 4 5 4 35 8 33 5 4 7 8 63 57

Preferred Prime Minister polls

Some opinion pollsters have asked voters which party leader they would prefer as Prime Minister. Their responses are given as percentages in the tables below.

Netanyahu vs Gantz
Date Polling firm Publisher Gantz Netanyahu
30 May NAKTAR Kan 11[10] 38 44
General
Date Polling firm Publisher Gabbay Lapid Ashkenazi Gantz Lieberman Netanyahu Bennett
2 Jun Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom[7] 2 3 3 27 5 39 3

Criticism

Direct Polls institute, which conducts some of the polls, is owned by Shlomo Filber, the former director general of the Ministry of Communications, and Likud campaign manager in the 2015 Israeli legislative election. Filber turned state's evidence in Case 4000, in which Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu is indicted of bribery. In the April 2019 Israeli legislative election Filber advised to the campaign of the New Right, making his objectivity questionable. Filber's polling method is controversial, and is based on SMS.[14]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b Gil Hoffman, Lahav Harkov (30 May 2019). "Israel goes back to elections as Netanyahu fails to form coalition". Jerusalem Post.
  2. ^ a b Arik Bender (27 May 2019). "New Israeli elections would give Netanyahu an easy win - poll". The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved 28 May 2019.
  3. ^ s:he:חוק הבחירות (דרכי תעמולה)#סעיף_16ה (ח) (in Hebrew)
  4. ^ Adam Rasgon (13 June 2019). "Arab-majority parties meet to discuss reestablishment of Joint List". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 13 June 2019.
  5. ^ a b Staff writer (14 June 2019). "Poll: Right-wing bloc leads with 68 seats". Arutz Sheva. Retrieved 14 June 2019.
  6. ^ "Right-wing government doesn't need Liberman, poll shows". Arutz Sheva. 7 June 2019. Retrieved 7 June 2019.
  7. ^ a b מטי טוכפלד (2 June 2019). "סקר "ישראל היום": 59 מנדטים לגוש הימין בלי ליברמן - איש לא יכול להרכיב ממשלה". Israel Hayom (in Hebrew). Retrieved 2 June 2019.
  8. ^ a b אריק בנדר (31 May 2019). "סקר מעריב: הליכוד וליברמן מתחזקים, העבודה מתחת לאחוז החסימה". Maariv (in Hebrew). Retrieved 31 May 2019.
  9. ^ עקיבא נוביק (30 May 2019). "סקר: ליברמן מתחזק ל-9 מנדטים, איחוד של הליכוד וכולנו - 36". Reshet 13 (in Hebrew). Retrieved 31 May 2019.
  10. ^ a b מואב ורדי (30 May 2019). "סקר כאן חדשות: ליברמן המרוויח הגדול, כחלון לא מוסיף מנדטים לליכוד". Kan (in Hebrew). Retrieved 31 May 2019.
  11. ^ Marissa Newman (28 May 2019). "Likud okays merger with Kulanu, confirms Netanyahu as PM candidate". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 28 May 2019.
  12. ^ "Second Post-Election Poll: Likud 34, Blue & White 33, Yisrael Beitenu 9, UTJ 8, 3 tied at 7; Right-Religious Bloc 68". Jeremy's Knesset Insider. 28 May 2019. Retrieved 28 May 2019.
  13. ^ "הסתיימה ספירת הקולות: יהדות התורה עם מנדט שמיני, בנט ושקד בחוץ". Maariv (in Hebrew). 16 April 2019. Retrieved 16 April 2019.
  14. ^ Tal Schneider (24 February 2019). "סמס מעד מדינה: פילבר יחזה עבורכם את תוצאות הבחירות". Globes (in Hebrew). Retrieved 14 June 2019.