2016 United States Senate election in Connecticut

2016 United States Senate election in Connecticut
	Blumenthal: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Carter: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70%
U.S. senator before election; Richard Blumenthal; Democratic	Elected U.S. Senator ; Richard Blumenthal; Democratic

The 2016 United States Senate election in Connecticut was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Connecticut, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal won re-election to a second term in office. Blumenthal's final vote total of 1,008,714 at the time made him the largest vote-receiver in the history of statewide elections in the state. (Blumenthal's record was later broken by then Vice President Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election; Biden received 1,080,680 votes.) He also became the first person to exceed 1 million votes in the history of statewide elections in Connecticut. He remains the highest voter-receiver in the history of statewide elections besides the presidency.

Democratic nomination

Candidates

Declared

Richard Blumenthal, incumbent U.S. Senator^[1]

Republican nomination

Declared

Dan Carter, State Representative^[2]^[3]

Withdrew at convention

Jack Orchulli, CEO and co-founder of a Michael Kors apparel company; nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004^[4]

Failed to qualify

August Wolf, investment executive and former Olympic athlete^[5]^[6]

Declined

Larry Kudlow, economist, television personality and columnist^[7]^[8]^[9]^[10]
Linda McMahon, businesswoman, former CEO of WWE, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2010 and 2012^[5]^[11]
Rob Simmons, Stonington First Selectman, former U.S. Representative and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010^[12]
Joe Visconti, former West Hartford Town Councilor, nominee for CT-01 in 2008 and Independent candidate for governor in 2014^[13]
David Walker, former Comptroller General of the United States and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014^[14]

Republican convention

The Republican state convention was held May 9, 2016, at the Connecticut Convention Center to select candidates for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives. State Representative Dan Carter received the nomination with 76.7% of the delegate vote. Neither Jack Orchulli nor August Wolf received the necessary 15% of the delegate vote necessary to be granted an automatic primary on August 9, 2016.^[15] In the first round of voting, Wolf received 179 delegate votes, equalling 15.1% and qualifying for a primary. However, before balloting closed, Orchulli dropped from the race and publicly endorsed Dan Carter, urging his candidates to switch their votes. During the vote switching, an additional 56 delegates that had voted for Wolf also switched their vote, dropping him well below the 15% threshold.^[16]

On May 11, 2016, Wolf announced an attempt to force a primary by collecting the signatures of 8,079 registered Republicans by June 7.^[17] However, on June 21, 2016, it was announced that Wolf had failed to reach the required signature threshold to force a primary, and he conceded the Republican nomination to Carter as a result.^[18]

Convention results

Candidate	Delegates	Percentage
Dan Carter	907	76.7%
August Wolf	123	10.4%
Jack Orchulli	20	1.7%
Not Present	132	11.2%

Endorsements

Dan Carter

Len Fasano, Minority Leader of the Connecticut Senate^[3]
Themis Klarides, Minority Leader of the Connecticut House of Representatives^[3]
Jack Orchulli, former candidate for the U.S. Senate^[16]

General election

Debates

Dates	Location	Blumenthal	Carter	Link
October 23, 2016	Rocky Hill, Connecticut	Participant	Participant	^[19]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[20]	Safe D	November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[21]	Safe D	November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report^[22]	Safe D	November 3, 2016
Daily Kos^[23]	Safe D	November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics^[24]	Safe D	November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Richard Blumenthal (D)	Dan Carter (R)	Undecided
SurveyMonkey^[25]	November 1–7, 2016	1,387	± 4.6%	63%	34%	3%
SurveyMonkey^[26]	October 31 – November 6, 2016	1,173	± 4.6%	62%	35%	3%
SurveyMonkey^[27]	October 28 – November 3, 2016	925	± 4.6%	62%	36%	2%
SurveyMonkey^[28]	October 27 – November 2, 2016	753	± 4.6%	62%	36%	2%
SurveyMonkey^[29]	October 26 – November 1, 2016	616	± 4.6%	60%	38%	2%
SurveyMonkey^[30]	October 25–31, 2016	554	± 4.6%	59%	38%	3%
Emerson College^[31]	September 2–5, 2016	1,000	± 3.0%	54%	33%	9%
Quinnipiac University^[32]	June 1–5, 2016	1,330	± 2.7%	60%	30%	10%

Hypothetical polling

with August Wolf

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Richard Blumenthal (D)	August Wolf (R)	Undecided
Quinnipiac University^[33]	October 7–11, 2015	1,735	± 2.4%	61%	26%	13%
Quinnipiac University^[34]	June 1–5, 2016	1,330	± 2.7%	62%	27%	11%

with Larry Kudlow

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Richard Blumenthal (D)	Larry Kudlow (R)	Undecided
Quinnipiac University^[35]	October 7–11, 2015	1,735	± 2.4%	61%	27%	12%

Results

United States Senate election in Connecticut, 2016^[36]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Richard Blumenthal	920,766	57.68%	+5.20%
	Working Families	Richard Blumenthal	87,948	5.51%	+2.83%
	Total	Richard Blumenthal (incumbent)	1,008,714	63.19%	+8.03%
	Republican	Dan Carter	552,621	34.62%	−8.60%
	Libertarian	Richard Lion	18,190	1.14%	N/A
	Green	Jeffery Russell	16,713	1.05%	N/A
	Independent	Andrew Rule (write-in)	26	0.00%	N/A
	Independent	John M. Traceski (write-in)	12	0.00%	N/A
Total votes			1,596,276	100.0%	N/A
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Litchfield (largest city: Torrington)

By congressional district

Blumenthal won all five congressional districts by comfortable double-digit margins.^[37]

District	Blumenthal	Carter	Representative
1st	68%	30%	John B. Larson
2nd	61%	36%	Joe Courtney
3rd	68%	30%	Rosa DeLauro
4th	62%	36%	Jim Himes
5th	58%	40%	Elizabeth Esty

References

^ Cahn, Emily; Levinson, Alexis (January 28, 2015). "Senators Confirm Re-Election Bids for 2016". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 29, 2015. Retrieved January 29, 2015.
^ "Breaking News: CT State Rep. Dan Carter Is Exploring Run for U.S. Senate". Bethel Advocate. March 19, 2016.
^ ^a ^b ^c "GOP's Dan Carter announces for U.S. Senate nomination". The Connecticut Mirror. April 4, 2016.
^ Vigdor, Neil (April 12, 2016). "Darien fashion label founder Orchulli to run for Senate". The Connecticut Post. Retrieved April 14, 2016.
^ ^a ^b Radelat, Ana (May 4, 2015). "Stamford Republican steps up to challenge Blumenthal". The Connecticut Mirror. Retrieved July 18, 2015.
^ Blair, Russell (June 21, 2016). "Republican August Wolf Fails To Qualify For U.S. Senate Primary". The Hartford Courant. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
^ Burns, Alexander (September 22, 2015). "Larry Kudlow Weighs Run Against Senator Richard Blumenthal in Connecticut". The New York Times. Retrieved October 1, 2015.
^ Radelat, Ana (September 28, 2015). "Kudlow denies report he's decided to run against Blumenthal". The Connecticut Mirror. Retrieved December 19, 2015.
^ Altimari, Daniela (December 7, 2015). "CNBC's Larry Kudlow Urged To Run For Senate Against Connecticut's Richard Blumenthal". Hartford Courant. Retrieved December 19, 2015.
^ Keating, Christopher (February 16, 2016). "Kudlow Will Not Run for U.S. Senate Against Blumenthal". Hartford Courant. Retrieved February 16, 2016.
^ Krasselt, Kaitlyn (February 7, 2016). "Linda McMahon says self awareness influenced new venture for women". Greenwich Time. Retrieved February 7, 2016.
^ Vigdor, Neil (April 8, 2015). "Simmons rules out 2016 challenge of Blumenthal". Connecticut Post. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
^ Vigdor, Neil (May 1, 2015). "Visconti exploring 2016 Senate run". Connecticut Post. Retrieved October 1, 2015.
^ Vigdor, Neil (March 23, 2015). "Walker won't challenge Blumenthal for Senate". Connecticut Post. Retrieved March 25, 2015.
^ "Dan Carter wins Connecticut's Republican Senate nomination". WTNH. Retrieved May 10, 2016.
^ ^a ^b "CT GOP backs Carter for Senate, denies Wolf primary margin". The CT Mirror. Retrieved May 10, 2016.
^ Altimari, Daniela (May 11, 2016). "Rejected by GOP, An Angry August Wolf Seeks Primary". Hartford Courant. Retrieved May 21, 2016.
^ Blair, Russell (June 21, 2016). "Republican August Wolf Fails To Qualify For U.S. Senate Primary". Hartford Courant. Retrieved June 27, 2016.
^ Full debate
^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
^ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ Emerson College
^ Quinnipiac University Archived June 25, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
^ Quinnipiac University Archived February 13, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
^ Quinnipiac University Archived June 25, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
^ Quinnipiac University Archived February 13, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
^ "2016 General Election November 8, 2016 Official Results". ct.gov. December 15, 2016. Retrieved November 15, 2016.
^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 20, 2024.

External links

Official campaign websites

[RCRG-1] Cahn, Emily; Levinson, Alexis (January 28, 2015). "Senators Confirm Re-Election Bids for 2016". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 29, 2015. Retrieved January 29, 2015.

[2] "Breaking News: CT State Rep. Dan Carter Is Exploring Run for U.S. Senate". Bethel Advocate. March 19, 2016.

[dcdors-3] "GOP's Dan Carter announces for U.S. Senate nomination". The Connecticut Mirror. April 4, 2016.

[4] Vigdor, Neil (April 12, 2016). "Darien fashion label founder Orchulli to run for Senate". The Connecticut Post. Retrieved April 14, 2016.

[Radelat-5] Radelat, Ana (May 4, 2015). "Stamford Republican steps up to challenge Blumenthal". The Connecticut Mirror. Retrieved July 18, 2015.

[6] Blair, Russell (June 21, 2016). "Republican August Wolf Fails To Qualify For U.S. Senate Primary". The Hartford Courant. Retrieved June 23, 2016.

[7] Burns, Alexander (September 22, 2015). "Larry Kudlow Weighs Run Against Senator Richard Blumenthal in Connecticut". The New York Times. Retrieved October 1, 2015.

[8] Radelat, Ana (September 28, 2015). "Kudlow denies report he's decided to run against Blumenthal". The Connecticut Mirror. Retrieved December 19, 2015.

[9] Altimari, Daniela (December 7, 2015). "CNBC's Larry Kudlow Urged To Run For Senate Against Connecticut's Richard Blumenthal". Hartford Courant. Retrieved December 19, 2015.

[10] Keating, Christopher (February 16, 2016). "Kudlow Will Not Run for U.S. Senate Against Blumenthal". Hartford Courant. Retrieved February 16, 2016.

[11] Krasselt, Kaitlyn (February 7, 2016). "Linda McMahon says self awareness influenced new venture for women". Greenwich Time. Retrieved February 7, 2016.

[12] Vigdor, Neil (April 8, 2015). "Simmons rules out 2016 challenge of Blumenthal". Connecticut Post. Retrieved April 9, 2015.

[13] Vigdor, Neil (May 1, 2015). "Visconti exploring 2016 Senate run". Connecticut Post. Retrieved October 1, 2015.

[14] Vigdor, Neil (March 23, 2015). "Walker won't challenge Blumenthal for Senate". Connecticut Post. Retrieved March 25, 2015.

[15] "Dan Carter wins Connecticut's Republican Senate nomination". WTNH. Retrieved May 10, 2016.

[The_CT_Mirror-16] "CT GOP backs Carter for Senate, denies Wolf primary margin". The CT Mirror. Retrieved May 10, 2016.

[Wolf-primary-17] Altimari, Daniela (May 11, 2016). "Rejected by GOP, An Angry August Wolf Seeks Primary". Hartford Courant. Retrieved May 21, 2016.

[18] Blair, Russell (June 21, 2016). "Republican August Wolf Fails To Qualify For U.S. Senate Primary". Hartford Courant. Retrieved June 27, 2016.

[19] Full debate

[20] "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.

[21] "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.

[22] "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.

[23] "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.

[24] "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.

[25] SurveyMonkey

[26] SurveyMonkey

[27] SurveyMonkey

[28] SurveyMonkey

[29] SurveyMonkey

[30] SurveyMonkey

[31] Emerson College

[32] Quinnipiac University Archived June 25, 2016, at the Wayback Machine

[33] Quinnipiac University Archived February 13, 2016, at the Wayback Machine

[34] Quinnipiac University Archived June 25, 2016, at the Wayback Machine

[35] Quinnipiac University Archived February 13, 2016, at the Wayback Machine

[Generalelection-36] "2016 General Election November 8, 2016 Official Results". ct.gov. December 15, 2016. Retrieved November 15, 2016.

[37] "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 20, 2024.

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v t e Elections in Connecticut
General	1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1982 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2021 2022 2024
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U.S. Senate	1788 1790 1791 1793 1796 1797 1801 1803 1807 1809 1812 1813 1814 1818 1819 1821 1824 1826 1831 1832 1837 1842 1852 (sp) 1854 1856 1860 1863 1866 1872 1879 1881 1885 1887 1891 1893 1897 1899 1903 1905 1909 1911 1914 1916 1920 1922 1926 1928 1932 1934 1938 1940 1944 1946 1950 1952 1956 1958 1962 1964 1968 1970 1974 1976 1980 1982 1986 1988 1992 1994 1998 2000 2004 2006 2010 2012 2016 2018 2022 2024
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See also: Political party strength in Connecticut

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